vi How COVID-19 is changing law enforcement practices by police and by criminal groups By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 07 Apr 2020 13:00:16 +0000 The COVID-19 outbreak worldwide is affecting not just crime as I explained last week, but also law enforcement: How are police responding to COVID-19 and its knock-on effects on crime? What effects does the pandemic have on criminal groups and the policing they do? Where have all the coppers gone? Globally, police forces are predominantly… Full Article
vi Mexican cartels are providing COVID-19 assistance. Why that’s not surprising. By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 20:06:03 +0000 That Mexican criminal groups have been handing out assistance to local populations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping through Mexico has generated much attention. Among the Mexican criminal groups that have jumped on the COVID-19 “humanitarian aid” bandwagon are the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), the Sinaloa Cartel, Los Viagras, the Gulf Cartel, and… Full Article
vi On April 13, 2020, Suzanne Maloney discussed “Why the Middle East Matters” via video conference with IHS Markit. By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 13 Apr 2020 20:46:08 +0000 On April 13, 2020, Suzanne Maloney discussed "Why the Middle East Matters" via video conference with IHS Markit. Full Article
vi Podcast: Camille François on COVID-19 and the ABCs of disinformation By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 28 Apr 2020 23:42:33 +0000 Camille François is a leading investigator of disinformation campaigns and author of the well-known "ABC" or "Actor-Behavior-Content" disinformation framework, which has informed how many of the biggest tech companies tackle disinformation on their platforms. Here, she speaks with Lawfare's Quinta Jurecic and Evelyn Douek for that site's series on disinformation, "Arbiters of Truth." Earlier this… Full Article
vi US-Iran tensions escalate amid COVID-19 By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 19:23:56 +0000 Full Article
vi In Saudi Arabia, the virus crisis meets inept leadership By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 06 Mar 2020 14:33:44 +0000 Saudi Arabia is facing serious challenges from the coronavirus, testing a leadership that has been impulsive and exclusive. The monarchy has become more remote from even most of the royal family in the last five years. Now the monarchy’s response to the virus has been unprecedented. Attention should be focused particularly on the young man… Full Article
vi Letter from Havana: The sudden civil society awakening By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 17 Dec 2018 14:48:34 +0000 As the Castro brothers fade into history, green shoots of civil society are visibly emerging in Cuba. Make no mistake: The Cuban Communist Party retains its authoritarian hegemony. Nevertheless, and largely unnoticed in the U.S. media, various interest groups are flexing their youthful muscles—and with some remarkable albeit very partial policy successes. These unanticipated stirrings… Full Article
vi Cuba’s forgotten eastern provinces By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 24 Jun 2019 17:54:01 +0000 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The five provinces of eastern Cuba (Oriente) have played central roles in the forging of the island’s history. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, sugarcane plantations generated fabulous wealth and Santiago de Cuba boasted a thriving middle class, even as most of the peasantry were relegated to grinding poverty and social neglect.… Full Article
vi Cuba’s forgotten eastern provinces: Testing regime resiliency By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 26 Nov 2019 18:34:53 +0000 Full Article
vi Africa in the News: South Africa is not downgraded, Chad’s Habré is convicted, and a major Mozambique’s gas investment remains confident By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 03 Jun 2016 13:48:00 -0400 On Friday, June 3, S&P Global Ratings announced that it would not downgrade South Africa’s credit rating to junk, letting South Africa breathe a sigh of relief. The outlook, however, remained negative. While some experts were confident that the rating would not be cut, most continued to warn that future economic or political turmoil could spark a downgrade later this year. The South African Treasury agreed, but remained positive releasing a statement saying: Government is aware that the next six months are critical and there is a need to step up the implementation [of measures to boost the economy] … The benefit of this decision is that South Africa is given more time to demonstrate further concrete implementation of reforms that are underway. South Africa, whose current rating stands at BBB- (one level above junk), has been facing weak economic growth—at 1 percent—over past months. The International Monetary Fund has given a 2016 growth forecast of 0.6 percent. Many feared that a downgrade could have pushed the country into a recession. Borrowing by the government would have also become more expensive, especially as it tackles a 3.2 percent of GDP budget deficit for the 2016-2017 fiscal year. Other credit ratings agencies also are concerned with South Africa’s economic performance. Last month, Moody’s Investors Service ranked the country two levels above junk but on review for a potential downgrade, while Fitch Ratings is reviewing its current stable outlook and BBB- rating. For South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s thoughts on the South African economy, see the April 14 Africa Growth Initiative event, “Building social cohesion and an inclusive economy: A conversation with South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.” Former Chadian President Hissène Habré is sentenced to life in prison by African court This week, the Extraordinary African Chambers—located in Dakar and established in collaboration with the African Union—sentenced former Chadian President Hissène Habré to life in prison. Habré seized power in 1982, overthrowing then President Goukouni Oueddei. He fled to Senegal in 1990 after being ousted by current Chadian President Idriss Deby. After he fled to Senegal, the African Union called on Senegal to prosecute Habré. In 2013, the Extraordinary African Chamber was created with the sole aim to prosecute Habré. The Habré trial is the first trial of a former African head of state in another African country. Habré faced a long list of charges including crimes against humanity, rape, sexual slavery, and ordering killings while in power. According to Chad’s Truth Commission, Habré’s government murdered 40,000 people during his eight-year reign. At the trial, 102 witnesses, victims, and experts testified to the horrifying nature of Habré’s rule. His reign of terror was largely enabled by Western countries, notably France and the United States. In fact, on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry admitted to his country’s involvement in enabling of Habré’s crimes. He was provided with weapons and money in order to assist in the fight against former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. Said resources were then used against Chadian citizens. Also this week, Simone Gbagbo, former Ivorian first lady, is being tried in Côte d’Ivoire’s highest court— la Cour d’Assises—for crimes against humanity. She also faces similar charges at the International Criminal Court though the Ivoirian authorities have not reacted to the arrest warrant issued in 2012. In March 2015, Simone Gbabgo was sentenced to 20 years in jail for undermining state security as she was found guilty of distributing arms to pro-Laurent Gbagbo militia during the 2010 post-electoral violence that left 3000 dead. Her husband is currently on trial in The Hague for the atrocities committed in the 2010 post-election period. Despite Mozambique’s debt crisis and low global gas prices, energy company Sasol will continue its gas investment On Monday, May 30, South African chemical and energy company Sasol Ltd announced that Mozambique’s ongoing debt crisis and continuing low global gas prices would not slow down its Mozambican gas project. The company expressed confidence in a $1.4 billion processing facility upgrade stating that the costs will be made up through future gas revenues. In explaining Sasol’s decision to increase the capacity of its facility by 8 percent, John Sichinga, senior vice president of Sasol’s exploration and production unit, stated, “There is no shortage of demand … There’s a power pool and all the countries of the region are short of power.” In addition, last week, Sasol began drilling the first of 12 new planned wells in the country. On the other hand, on Monday The Wall Street Journal published an article examining how these low gas prices are stagnating much-hoped-for growth in East African countries like Tanzania and Mozambique as low prices prevent oil companies from truly getting started. Now, firms that flocked to promising areas of growth around these industries are downsizing or moving out, rents are dropping, and layoffs are frequent. Sasol’s Sichinga remains positive, though, emphasizing, "We are in Mozambique for the long haul. We will ride the waves, the downturns, and the upturns." Authors Christina Golubski Full Article
vi The presidential candidates’ views on energy and climate By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 09 Jun 2016 09:00:00 -0400 This election cycle, what will separate Democrats from Republicans on energy policy and their approach to climate change? Republicans tend to be fairly strong supporters of the fossil fuel industry, and to various degrees deny that climate change is occurring. Democratic candidates emphasize the importance of further expanding the share of renewable energy at the expense of fossil fuels, and agree that climate change is a real problem—with some saying the challenge trumps most, if not all, other U.S. security concerns. Now that there are presumptive nominees for both major political parties, it’s an important moment to outline, in broad strokes, the positions of Secretary Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump. We realize that Democratic Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has not dropped out of the race, but note that it is fairly unlikely at this point that he would clinch the nomination. Clinton: Building on the Obama legacy Secretary Clinton has laid out the most comprehensive and detailed energy and climate policy proposals of the candidates to date. They are in essence a continuation, and in some cases a further expansion, of existing White House policies under President Obama. The Secretary has stated that she wants the United States to be the “clean energy superpower of the 21st century.” This starts with the notion that climate change is an existential threat, which the global community has to address as soon as possible. In order to do that, in her view, the United States needs to continue to show leadership on the international stage, as the Obama administration sought to do surrounding the Paris agreement in December 2015. This will require substantial reforms to expand low-carbon options, including nuclear energy to some degree, while tightly regulating fossil fuels (and gradually phasing them out). [S]he wants the United States to be the “clean energy superpower of the 21st century.” The first casualty of this transformation is the coal industry, which Clinton has explicitly acknowledged. She presented a $30 billion plan to revitalize communities where coal production is currently an important industry and job creator, for example, and has campaigned with this message in various state primaries. Implicitly, Secretary Clinton does not seem to believe in the economic viability of carbon capture and sequestration in the United States—this is despite the fact that most analyses, including those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggest that this technology could be a cost-efficient tool in a wider carbon emission mitigation portfolio. Clinton sees natural gas as a bridge fuel, though at this point it’s not clear how long that bridge is. Questions remain about the role that natural gas can play in scenarios of deep decarbonization in 2030 and beyond. At the moment, the gas industry is rather nervous of the Secretary’s statement that she’d increase regulations on, in particular, the fracking industry—if her conditions came to fruition, there would very few places where fracking would continue. Secretary Clinton believes that oil consumption has to be cut substantially in the coming years, and she has suggested that new drilling in places like the Arctic, off the Atlantic Coast, and on federal lands would be discouraged or banned. She has previously opposed crude oil exports, though we would not anticipate a roll-back of existing policies (in December 2015, the Obama administration lifted the decades-old ban). Clinton foresees a new energy economy built on rapidly increasing shares of renewable energy, which should comprise 25 percent of the U.S. fuel mix by 2025 according to her plan (solar energy would be a key focus, with half a billion panels to be installed by the end of her first term). To facilitate this transition, she presented an elaborate energy infrastructure plan to modernize the U.S. grid and improve efficiency in reviewing and approving projects. Tax credits to support renewables would be continued under a Clinton White House, whereas fossil fuel subsidies would be phased out. Increased energy efficiency, including harmonization of vehicle efficiency and fuel standards, are high on her agenda as well. The Secretary also supports the Clean Power Plan that the Environmental Protection Agency under the Obama administration has launched, and which is currently on hold in the Supreme Court. On the international stage, Clinton supports the Paris agreement on climate change. Should she win the presidency in November, she would make an effort to take this Treaty to the next step, thus continuing U.S. leadership. That would mean reinforcing U.S. leadership along the lines described above, while helping address current uncertainties about finance, transparency, and accountability, to name only a few challenges that remain. Trump: Drill, baby, drill Although Donald Trump’s candidacy remains highly controversial, he is now the presumptive Republican nominee for president. To the extent that we know any detailed plans, quod non, it is safe to say that his views on energy and climate change are diametrically opposed to most of Clinton’s. Broadly speaking, Mr. Trump has come out as a fervent supporter of the fossil fuel industry, and has expressed skepticism about the economic viability of renewable energy. Mr. Trump’s views start with the belief that climate change is not man-made. In the past, the controversial businessman has suggested that climate change might be a hoax invention from China, in order to undermine U.S. industrial interests and job creation. This starting point allows Mr. Trump to be extremely supportive of existing industrial interests (if carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions are not a problem, the thinking goes, then business as usual is the way to go). In a speech in North Dakota in late May, Mr. Trump laid out some broad initial ideas for his energy policy. He declared that under his presidency the United States would “accomplish complete American energy independence,” leaving unaddressed arguments about what that would mean for existing international energy trade. It is probably safe to say that Mr. Trump would like to further expand oil, gas, and coal production in the country. The latter, in particular, is remarkable: even coal executives have declared that market forces (particularly very competitive natural gas) have been the primary threat to the coal industry. Since Mr. Trump is also a strong supporter of the natural gas industry—and considering the challenges of building new bulk terminals for exports—it is unclear how a revitalization of the coal industry would occur. If climate change is a hoax, it will come as no surprise that Mr. Trump will not support efforts to mitigate carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to his opponent, Mr. Trump would also like to revoke restrictions on drilling for oil and gas, and would permit production on federal lands. He also supports further expansion of energy infrastructure, and would, if elected, ask Trans Canada to resubmit a permit application for the Keystone pipeline, which he’d approve. He has caveated his support for projects like these by demanding that a portion of the revenues from oil and gas flows be redistributed to local communities, to compensate them for intrusion on their private property. Mr. Trump has also indicated that he wants to use revenues from oil and gas production to rebuild U.S. infrastructure more broadly. If climate change is a hoax, it will come as no surprise that Mr. Trump will not support efforts to mitigate carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions. The candidate has called the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan “stupid,” and when asked what he would do about the Paris agreement on climate change, he said he’d cancel it. Though Trump says the United States must pursue all forms of energy—including renewables—he has expressed skepticism about their economic viability, calling solar energy “very expensive.” Wind energy received similar pejorative feedback, since Trump says it kills eagles and is noisy. During one of the few debates about renewable energy during the Iowa primary, he voiced his support for blending biofuels in vehicles. To the polls The 2016 U.S. presidential election will have a profound impact on global affairs. Not only will it affect a range of security and economic issues in important ways, it also means a lot for global energy and climate policy. Will the United States continue on the trajectory that President Obama has started and continue a major energy transition strategy? Or will it shift course, potentially undermining existing domestic policies and investments, as well as international obligations? In November 2016, the American people will decide. Authors Tim BoersmaCharles K. EbingerHeather Greenley Full Article
vi Webinar: COVID-19: Implications for peace and security in the Middle East By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Sun, 19 Apr 2020 11:26:53 +0000 The Brookings Doha Center (BDC) hosted a webinar discussion on April 22, 2020 about the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on peace and security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Panelists assessed the short-term and long-term implications for the region at large whilst also narrowing in on Iraq and Syria. The panel consisted… Full Article
vi Playbrary: A new vision of the neighborhood library By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 20 Feb 2020 15:17:38 +0000 “Shhhhhh.” This is perhaps the sound most associated with libraries. Yet, libraries are also portals to the world outside that take us to faraway places and spur new ideas. Libraries offer community gathering spaces where neighbors without internet access can complete job applications and families can gather for story time. But as times have changed,… Full Article
vi A parent’s guide to surviving COVID-19: 8 strategies to keep children healthy and happy By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 17 Mar 2020 17:20:24 +0000 For many of us, COVID-19 has completely changed how we work. Remote work might have its advantages for some, but when the kids are out of school and libraries and museums are closed, juggling two roles at once can be a challenge. What is a parent to do? As two developmental psychologists dedicated to understanding… Full Article
vi After coronavirus subsides, we must pay teachers more By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 30 Mar 2020 20:11:58 +0000 As Wall Street takes a pounding from the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock we place in teachers is on the rise. If you didn’t appreciate the expertise, labor, and dedication that teachers patiently pour into our children most days of the week, then you probably do now. To help reduce the spread of the coronavirus, districts… Full Article
vi Playful learning in everyday places during the COVID-19 crisis—and beyond By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 07 Apr 2020 20:19:31 +0000 Under normal circumstances, children spend 80 percent of their waking time outside the classroom. The COVID-19 pandemic has quite abruptly turned that 80 percent into 100 percent. Across the U.S., schools and child care centers have been mandated to close, and children of all ages are now home full time. This leaves many families, especially… Full Article
vi Atlanta links international disputes and airport as runway to global services economy By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 Scanning the departures and arrivals board on the way home from launching metro Atlanta’s new foreign direct investment strategy under the Global Cities Initiative, it was easy to understand why local leaders remain focused on finding strategies to better leverage their airport as a unique infrastructure asset for global economic opportunities. Full Article Uncategorized
vi Achieving inclusive growth in cities By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 Fighting inequality is not only a global and national concern; it is also very local,” remarked Ángel Gurría, secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), last month at the Washington launch of the OECD’s Inclusive Growth in Cities Campaign. Full Article Uncategorized
vi Emerging Nations and the Evolving Global Economy By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: On May 2, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings (CUSE) hosted Kaushik Basu for the ninth annual Sakıp Sabancı Lecture. In his address, Basu discussed the persisting global economic crisis and the policy challenges facing emerging countries. Kaushik Basu is senior vice president (Development Economics) and chief economist of the… Full Article
vi Coronavirus lessons from New York and San Francisco By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 07 Apr 2020 15:23:23 +0000 Since the first novel coronavirus case in the United States was registered on January 19, 2020, we have learned one thing about the discipline of public health: It has been masquerading as medicine but it is at best a social science, and not an especially sophisticated one. Public health experts in the U.S. and the… Full Article
vi Who lives in the places where coronavirus is hitting the hardest? By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 10 Apr 2020 19:17:35 +0000 Every day since the COVID-19 pandemic began surging, The New York Times and other sources have reported the size and geographic scope of coronavirus cases. But in addition to these raw numbers, it is useful to know the key demographic attributes of places with the most cases, in comparison to those with lower (but likely… Full Article
vi Businesses owned by women and minorities have grown. Will COVID-19 undo that? By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 14 Apr 2020 16:03:36 +0000 There are two small business crises in the United States. The first—the sudden shock to small businesses induced by COVID-19—is acute and immediate. Our recent analysis indicates that over 50% of small businesses with employees (an astounding 4 million establishments) face immediate or near-term risks due to the pandemic. The second crisis—the structural racial and… Full Article
vi How COVID-19 will change the nation’s long-term economic trends, according to Brookings Metro scholars By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 14 Apr 2020 17:00:28 +0000 Will the coronavirus change everything? While that sentiment feels true to the enormity of the crisis, it likely isn’t quite right, as scholars from the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program have been exploring since the pandemic began. Instead, the COVID-19 crisis seems poised to accelerate or intensify many economic and metropolitan trends that were already underway, with huge… Full Article
vi COVID-19’s recent spread shifts to suburban, whiter, and more Republican-leaning areas By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 22 Apr 2020 14:48:01 +0000 There is a stereotypical view of the places in America that COVID-19 has affected most: they are broadly urban, comprised predominantly of racial minorities, and strongly vote Democratic. This underlines the public’s perception of what kinds of populations reside in areas highly exposed to the coronavirus, as well as some of the recent political arguments… Full Article
vi COVID-19 is expanding further into Trump country By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 29 Apr 2020 15:59:26 +0000 The COVID-19 pandemic has already shown a dispersion away from the nation’s most urban and densely populated counties to suburban, somewhat whiter, and less politically Democratic parts of the country. Yet the group of counties that newly qualify as areas with a high prevalence of COVID-19 cases are even more dispersed, and represent places where… Full Article
vi Turning back the Poverty Clock: How will COVID-19 impact the world’s poorest people? By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 06 May 2020 16:43:10 +0000 The release of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook provides an initial country-by-country assessment of what might happen to the world economy in 2020 and 2021. Using the methods described in the World Poverty Clock, we ask what will happen to the number of poor people in the world—those living in households with less than $1.90… Full Article
vi As states reopen, COVID-19 is spreading into even more Trump counties By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 15:18:02 +0000 Even as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on, America has begun to open up for some business and limited social interaction, especially in parts of the country that did not bear the initial brunt of the coronavirus. However, the number of counties where COVID-19 cases have reached “high-prevalence” status continues to expand. Our tracking of these… Full Article
vi Americans give President Trump poor ratings in handling COVID-19 crisis By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 17 Apr 2020 20:32:46 +0000 Since its peak in late March, public approval of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has slowly but steadily declined. Why is this happening? Will his new guidelines to the states for reopening the country’s turn it around? What will be the impact of his latest tweets, which call on his supporters to “liberate”… Full Article
vi Get rid of the White House Coronavirus Task Force before it kills again By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 14:21:30 +0000 As news began to leak out that the White House was thinking about winding down the coronavirus task force, it was greeted with some consternation. After all, we are still in the midst of a pandemic—we need the president’s leadership, don’t we? And then, in an abrupt turnaround, President Trump reversed himself and stated that… Full Article
vi How instability and high turnover on the Trump staff hindered the response to COVID-19 By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 18:04:06 +0000 On Jan. 14, 2017, the Obama White House hosted 30 incoming staff members of the Trump team for a role-playing scenario. A readout of the event said, “The exercise provided a high-level perspective on a series of challenges that the next administration may face and introduced the key authorities, policies, capabilities, and structures that are… Full Article
vi @ Brookings Podcast: E.J. Dionne on Divided Politics By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 15 Jun 2012 15:37:00 -0400 In his book, Our Divided Political Heart, Senior Fellow E.J. Dionne, Jr. writes that the current deep political divide plaguing American politics has its roots in a fundamental misunderstanding of our founding principles and the strong role our forebears saw for government in protecting individual liberty. Video E.J. Dionne, Jr.: Founding Fathers Believed Common Good Protected Individual Liberty Authors E.J. Dionne, Jr. Image Source: © Kevin Lamarque / Reuters Full Article
vi Tanvi Madan on the US-India-China “Fateful Triangle” By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 17 Mar 2020 19:07:39 +0000 Full Article
vi On April 8, 2020, Tanvi Madan discussed the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for the Sino-Indo bilateral relations with ORF By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 08 Apr 2020 19:36:56 +0000 On April 8, 2020, Tanvi Madan discussed the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for the Sino-Indo bilateral relations via teleconference with Observer Research Foundation. Full Article
vi On April 16, 2020, Tanvi Madan unpacked how India’s relation with China changed under Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping via teleconference with the Asia Society Switzerland By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 16 Apr 2020 20:02:19 +0000 On April 16, 2020, Tanvi Madan unpacked how India's relation with China changed under Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping via teleconference with the Asia Society Switzerland. Full Article
vi 20200421 TheAtlantic Tanvi Madan By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 15:53:36 +0000 Full Article
vi India’s coronavirus response, anti-China sentiment, and the communalization of Covid-19 By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 19:46:59 +0000 Full Article
vi How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting China’s relations with India? By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 12:02:00 +0000 China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has reinforced the skeptical perception of the country that prevails in many quarters in India. The Indian state’s rhetoric has been quite measured, reflecting its need to procure medical supplies from China and its desire to keep the relationship stable. Nonetheless, Beijing’s approach has fueled Delhi’s existing strategic and economic concerns. These… Full Article
vi Civil wars and U.S. engagement in the Middle East By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 06 Jul 2016 12:00:00 -0400 "At the end of the day, we need to remember that Daesh is more a product of the civil wars than it is a cause of them. And the way that we’re behaving is we’re treating it as the cause. And the problem is that in places like Syria, in Iraq, potentially in Libya, we are mounting these military campaigns to destroy Daesh and we’re not doing anything about the underlying civil wars. And the real danger there is—we have a brilliant military and they may very well succeed in destroying Daesh—but if we haven’t dealt with the underlying civil wars, we’ll have Son of Daesh a year later." – Ken Pollack “Part of the problem is how we want the U.S. to be more engaged and more involved and what that requires in practice. We have to be honest about a different kind of American role in the Middle East. It means committing considerable economic and political resources to this region of the world that a lot of Americans are quite frankly sick of… There is this aspect of nation-building that is in part what we have to do in the Middle East, help these countries rebuild, but we can’t do that on the cheap. We can’t do that with this relatively hands off approach.” – Shadi Hamid In this episode of “Intersections,” Kenneth Pollack, senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy and Shadi Hamid, senior fellow in the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World and author of "Islamic Exceptionalism: How the Struggle over Islam is Reshaping the World," discuss the current state of upheaval in the Middle East, the Arab Spring, and the political durability of Islamist movements in the region. They also explain their ideas on how and why the United States should change its approach to the Middle East and areas of potential improvement for U.S. foreign policy in the region. Show Notes Fight or flight: America’s choice in the Middle East Security and public order Islamists on Islamism today Temptations of Power: Islamists & Illiberal Democracy in a New Middle East Ending the Middle East’s civil wars A Rage for Order: The Middle East in turmoil, from Tahrir Square to ISIS Building a better Syrian opposition army: How and why With thanks to audio engineer and producer Zack Kulzer, Mark Hoelscher, Carisa Nietsche, Sara Abdel-Rahim, Eric Abalahin, Fred Dews and Richard Fawal. Subscribe to the Intersections on iTunes, and send feedback email to intersections@brookings.edu. Authors Shadi HamidAdrianna PitaKenneth M. Pollack Image Source: © Stringer . / Reuters Full Article
vi The vicious cycle of French terrorism By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 13:50:00 -0400 Editors’ Note: The attack in Nice will inevitably, and appropriately, lead to more aggressive intelligence efforts against suspected ISIS networks and tighter security in general, writes Dan Byman. Unfortunately, they are also likely to bolster anti-Muslim voices in France and throughout Europe, and ISIS may in turn exploit Muslims’ resulting shame and anger. This post originally appeared on Slate. At least 84 people are dead in Nice, France, after a truck deliberately plowed for over a mile through packed crowds celebrating Bastille Day; ISIS or one of its supporters is believed to be linked to the attack. As we reel in horror from yet another instance of terrorist carnage, news reports are trickling in, giving us a sense of the attack, its victims, and those behind the killings. We’ll learn more in the days to come, but we already knew Europe—and France in particular—has a terrorism problem and that it may go from bad to worse in the near future. Ironically, one of the reasons for the increased attacks is the military successes the United States, France, and other countries and local fighters are scoring against ISIS’s core in Iraq and Syria and the setbacks suffered by ISIS’s key provinces such as that in Libya. ISIS, which had long trumpeted its success in establishing the now-shrinking caliphate, needs victories to compensate for these major losses. Earlier this month, CIA Director John Brennan warned, “As the pressure mounts on ISIL, we judge that it will intensify its global terror campaign to maintain its dominance of the global terrorism agenda.” Running down people with a truck is a new form of violence for ISIS, though ISIS propaganda has called for supporters to kill by “ramming” people, al-Qaida’s Yemen branch recommended it in the past to “mow down the enemies of Allah,” and in 2008 a Palestinian used a bulldozer to kill three Israelis. But this is the fourth major terror attack in Europe in the past eight months: ISIS-directed terrorists killed 130 people in November in Paris; in March suicide bombers killed 32 people in Brussels, and just two weeks ago three men believed to be tied to ISIS killed more than 40 at the Istanbul airport. The attacks will inevitably, and appropriately, lead to more aggressive intelligence efforts against suspected ISIS networks and tighter security in general. Unfortunately, they are also likely to bolster anti-Muslim voices in France and throughout Europe, fostering daily humiliations and furthering Muslim communities’ sense that they are suspect and under siege. ISIS will exploit the resulting shame and anger, increasing the risk of future attacks. European nations face several types of terror threats from ISIS. The first is the unprecedented number of fighters—more than 5,000—that Europe has exported to Iraq and Syria to fight under the banners of ISIS and other jihadi groups. More than 900 of them (including 200 women) have come from France. More than 130 are dead, and almost 250 have returned; the rest are believed to still be in Iraq and Syria. The Paris attacks, which were coordinated and practiced, illustrate the danger such fighters can pose: Time in the battle zone allows them to gain fighting skills, become indoctrinated, and develop a network to exploit for future attacks. In addition, ISIS leaders can direct their operations to achieve maximal effect. As the so-called caliphate shrinks, more of these fighters may try to return. More than 1,000 other Frenchmen are believed to be radicalized but have not gone to Iraq and Syria, and this represents another overlapping danger. In the past many might have tried to go to Syria, but now, perhaps acting on directions from ISIS leaders with whom they are communicating or perhaps mixing with returned foreign fighters, these individuals might strike directly at France or other countries. The last category are true “lone wolves”—those inspired by ISIS or other jihadi ideologies but with no direct operational connection to a group (the attacks in San Bernardino and Orlando appear to fall into this category). Two years ago ISIS propaganda emphasized coming to the “caliphate” to help it consolidate and expand. Earlier this year, however, its spokesman and external operations leader Muhammad al-Adnani declared, “The smallest action you do in the heart of their land is dearer to us than the largest action by us and more effective and more damaging to them.” France, as we’ve seen, is particularly vulnerable. As my Brookings colleagues Will McCants and Chris Meserole have recently argued, French political culture is a counterterrorism problem. They found that “four of the five countries with the highest rates of radicalization in the world are Francophone, including the top two in Europe (France and Belgium).” Part of the problem are the large numbers of unemployed urban youth, a fertile field for radical recruiting. But part of it is also France’s aggressive secularization programs, which prohibit girls from wearing the veil in school and are considered by many Muslims to be a deliberate attack on their religion. Muslims’ trust in the government and security services is low. Add such a sense of humiliation to a surging far-right political movement that constantly blasts Muslim immigrants and citizens, and the conditions for radicalization are strong. The United States is less vulnerable by comparison. Fewer than 300 Americans have gone to fight in Iraq and Syria. Part of this is because of an aggressive and effective law enforcement and intelligence effort to disrupt volunteers. But part of it is because the American Muslim community is far better integrated than its French counterpart and regularly cooperates with law enforcement. U.S. politics are becoming more poisonous toward Muslims, but—we can hope—that anti-Muslim sentiment in America may have peaked, and recent polls suggest positive attitudes toward Muslims are increasing. Continued military and intelligence operations against the ISIS core by U.S.-led coalition forces and their local partners are necessary, but they will take time to bear fruit and in the end still don’t solve the terrorism problem. Stopping an attack like the one in Nice is exceptionally difficult. The attacker chose a “soft” (undefended) target and showed that one sick person can kill many with the right combination of determination and luck. Unfortunately, the most likely reaction after the Nice attack is also the worst one: more vitriol and hostility toward French and European Muslims, furthering a cycle that makes it harder for European security services to gain the cooperation of local communities and easier for ISIS to gain recruits and score victories. Authors Daniel L. Byman Publication: Slate Full Article
vi Realist or neocon? Mixed messages in Trump advisor’s foreign policy vision By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 19 Jul 2016 08:00:00 -0400 Last night, retired lieutenant general Michael Flynn addressed the Republican convention as a headline speaker on the subject of national security. One of Donald Trump’s closest advisors—so much so that he was considered for vice president—Flynn repeated many of the themes found in his new book, The Field of Fight, How We Can Win the Global War Against Radical Islam and Its Allies, which he coauthored with Michael Ledeen. (The book is published by St. Martin’s, which also published mine.) Written in Flynn’s voice, the book advances two related arguments: First, the U.S. government does not know enough about its enemies because it does not collect enough intelligence, and it refuses to take ideological motivations seriously. Second, our enemies are collaborating in an “international alliance of evil countries and movements that is working to destroy” the United States despite their ideological differences. Readers will immediately notice a tension between the two ideas. “On the surface,” Flynn admits, “it seems incoherent.” He asks: “How can a Communist regime like North Korea embrace a radical Islamist regime like Iran? What about Russia’s Vladimir Putin? He is certainly no jihadi; indeed, Russia has a good deal to fear from radical Islamist groups.” Flynn spends much of the book resolving the contradiction and proving that America’s enemies—North Korea, China, Russia, Iran, Syria, Cuba, Bolivia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, al-Qaida, Hezbollah, and ISIS—are in fact working in concert. No one who has read classified intelligence or studied international relations will balk at the idea that unlikely friendships are formed against a common enemy. As Flynn observes, the revolutionary Shiite government in Tehran cooperates with nationalist Russia and communist North Korea; it has also turned a blind eye (at the very least) to al-Qaida’s Sunni operatives in Iran and used them bargaining chips when negotiating with Osama bin Laden and the United States. Flynn argues that this is more than “an alliance of convenience.” Rather, the United States’ enemies share “a contempt for democracy and an agreement—by all the members of the enemy alliance—that dictatorship is a superior way to run a country, an empire, or a caliphate.” Their shared goals of maximizing dictatorship and minimizing U.S. interference override their substantial ideological differences. Consequently, the U.S. government must work to destroy the alliance by “removing the sickening chokehold of tyranny, dictatorships, and Radical Islamist regimes.” Its failure to do so over the past decades gravely imperils the United States, he contends. The book thus offers two very different views of how to exercise American power abroad: spread democracies or stand with friendly strongmen...[P]erhaps it mirrors the confusion in the Republican establishment over the direction of conservative foreign policy. Some of Flynn’s evidence for the alliance diverts into the conspiratorial—I’ve seen nothing credible to back up his assertion that the Iranians were behind the 1979 takeover of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by Sunni apocalypticists. And there’s an important difference between the territorially-bounded ambitions of Iran, Russia, and North Korea, on the one hand, and ISIS’s desire to conquer the world on the other; the former makes alliances of convenience easier than the latter. Still, Flynn would basically be a neocon if he stuck with his core argument: tyrannies of all stripes are arrayed against the United States so the United States should destroy them. But some tyrannies are less worthy of destruction than others. In fact, Flynn argues there’s a category of despot that should be excluded from his principle, the “friendly tyrants” like President Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi in Egypt and former president Zine Ben Ali in Tunisia. Saddam Hussein should not have been toppled, Flynn argues, and even Russia could become an “ideal partner for fighting Radical Islam” if only it would come to its senses about the threat of “Radical Islam.” Taken alone, these arguments would make Flynn realist, not a neocon. The book thus offers two very different views of how to exercise American power abroad: spread democracies or stand with friendly strongmen. Neither is a sure path to security. Spreading democracy through the wrong means can bring to power regimes that are even more hostile and authoritarian; standing with strongmen risks the same. Absent some principle higher than just democracy or security for their own sakes, the reader is unable to decide between Flynn’s contradictory perspectives and judge when their benefits are worth the risks. It’s strange to find a book about strategy so at odds with itself. Perhaps the dissonance is due to the co-authors’ divergent views (Ledeen is a neocon and Flynn is comfortable dining with Putin.) Or perhaps it mirrors the confusion in the Republican establishment over the direction of conservative foreign policy. Whatever the case, the muddled argument offered in The Field of Fight demonstrates how hard it is to overcome ideological differences to ally against a common foe, regardless of whether that alliance is one of convenience or conviction. Authors William McCants Full Article
vi Reinvigorating the transatlantic partnership to tackle evolving threats By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 20 Jul 2016 15:30:00 -0400 Event Information July 20, 20163:30 PM - 5:00 PM EDTFalk AuditoriumBrookings Institution1775 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC 20036 A conversation with French Minister of Defense Jean-Yves Le DrianOn July 20 and 21, defense ministers from several nations will gather in Washington, D.C. at the invitation of U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. The meeting will bring together representatives from countries working to confront and defeat the Islamic State (or ISIL). French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian will be among those at the summit discussing how to accelerate long-term efforts to fight ISIL in Iraq and Syria. The close relationship between France and the United States has provided a solid base for security cooperation for decades, and in recent years, France has become one of America’s strongest allies in fighting terrorism and a prominent member of the international coalition to defeat ISIL. On July 20, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings hosted Minister Le Drian for a discussion on French and U.S. cooperation as the two countries face multiple transnational security threats. Since becoming France’s defense minister in 2012, Le Drian has had to address numerous new security crises emerging from Africa, the Middle East, and within Europe itself. France faced horrific terrorist attacks on its own soil in January and November 2015 and remains under a state of emergency with its armed forces playing an active role in maintaining security both at home and abroad. Le Drian recently authored “Qui est l’ennemi?” (“Who is the enemy?”, Editions du Cerf, May 2016), defining a comprehensive strategy to address numerous current threats. Join the conversation on Twitter using #USFrance Video Introduction and featured speakerDiscussionIntroduction et conférencier invitéDébat Transcript Uncorrected Transcript (.pdf) Event Materials 20160720_france_defense_transcript Full Article
vi Webinar: Policing in the era of COVID-19 By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: The consequences of the novel coronavirus pandemic stretch across the entirety of government services. Major police agencies have reported absentee rates as high as 20% due to officers who are either themselves afflicted with the virus or in need of self-quarantine. Reported crimes are generally down in America’s cities as a result of the many… Full Article
vi Taking Development Activities to Scale in Fragile and Low Capacity Environments By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 01 Sep 2011 10:17:00 -0400 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Fragile states present one of the greatest challenges to global development and poverty reduction. Despite much new learning that has emerged from within the development community in recent years, understanding of how to address fragility remains modest. There is growing recognition that donor engagement in fragile states must look beyond the confines of the traditional aid effectiveness agenda if it is to achieve its intended objectives, which include statebuilding, meeting the needs of citizens, and managing risk more effectively. Current approaches are constrained by relying heavily on small-scale interventions, are weakened by poor coordination and volatility, and struggle to promote an appropriate role for the recipient state.Scaling up (i.e., the expansion, replication, adaption and sustaining of successful policies and programs in space and over time to reach a greater number of people) is highly relevant to fragile settings, both as an objective and as a strategic approach to development. As an objective, it reinforces the logic that the scale of the challenges in fragile states demands interventions that are commensurate in purpose and equal to the task. As a strategy, it encourages donors to identify and leverage successes, and to integrate institutional development more explicitly into projects and programs. In addition, scaling up can assist donors in addressing the priority areas of improved project design and implementation, sustainability and effective risk management. Successful scaling up in fragile states almost certainly occurs less often than is possible and does not always involve a systematic approach. Donors should therefore look to more systematically pursue scaling up in fragile states and evaluate their performance with specific reference to this objective. This can be done by incorporating relevant elements of a scaling up framework into operational policies, from strategy development through to program design and monitoring. Contrary to expectations, there are compelling examples of successful scaling up in fragile states. While the conditions prevailing in fragile states create serious obstacles in terms of “drivers” (the forces that push the scaling up process forward) and “spaces” (the opportunities that need to be created, or potential obstacles that need to be removed for interventions to grow), and in terms of the operational modalities of donors, these can be overcome through the careful design and delivery of programs with a clear focus on creating scaling up pathways, and through close partnership and sustained engagement of governments, communities and foreign partners. Case study evidence suggests that the pathways taken to reach scale in fragile states demand different approaches by donors. Donors need to adopt greater selectivity in determining which areas or sectors for scaling up are justified—a strategy that has also assisted some donors in managing risk. More investment and time are required in upfront analysis and building the evidence for successful scaling up pathways. In some cases, donors require longer time horizons to achieve scale, although demand from government or beneficiaries has sometimes forced donors to move immediately to scale, allowing little or no time for piloting. Regardless of the pace of scaling up, donors that were most successful were engaged early and then remained engaged, often far beyond the replication phase of scaling up, to increase the likelihood of interventions being sustained. Other common characteristics of successful scaling up were simple project design and a focus on the institutional aspects of the scaling up pathway. Case studies also point to the crucial role of drivers in moving the scaling up process forward in fragile states. Proven ideas and practical models have often been picked up in fragile states, contrary to the expectation that actors may be less responsive to recognizing and acting on the utility of promising results. Leaders undoubtedly have a role to play in supporting scaling up, although there are clear dangers that must be avoided, including avoiding the perception that donors are picking (political) winners by nominating leaders, and tying the survival of projects too closely to the fortunes of a leader’s political career. Incentives were found to be one of the most important drivers in fragile states, and there is a good case to be made for donors introducing new inducements, greater transparency or similar reforms to strengthen the role incentives play. Finally, and in contrast to the standard scaling up framework, community demand was found to be an important driver in many fragile states, both in demanding the expansion of small-scale projects and by facilitating the community’s own resources to support the scaling up process. The greatest challenge to scaling up in fragile states is the limited spaces these environments provide. This is especially the case in respect to those spaces which concern aspects of governance: political, institutional and policy spaces. When working in fragile states, donors must recognize that spaces for scaling up are almost always more constrained, but look for ways to expand upon them. Some of the most successful examples of scaling up used creative approaches to build space quickly or used existing capacity to the fullest possible extent. Also relevant are the lessons of robust analysis, greater realism and cost control. The case studies confirm the importance of two additional spaces in fragile states. For example, security space often imposed horizontal obstacles to scaling up which could not realistically be overcome while ownership space served as a good indication of the perceived legitimacy of the scaling up process and the likelihood that interventions would be sustained longer term. Case studies also affirm the importance of emphasizing robust project design and implementation, and the close linkages between the scaling up agenda and the role of risk management and sustainability in fragile states. While sustainability presented a significant problem for many of the projects and programs reviewed, a more focused approach around scaling up may assist donors in addressing sustainability concerns. This would entail adopting a longer-term perspective beyond the immediate confines of any individual project, looking for available drivers and supportive spaces, and focusing on effective implementation and consistent monitoring and evaluation (M&E). Any intervention introduced on a small scale that scores well in sustainability serves as a possible candidate for scaling up. Similarly, many of the methods used by donors for managing risk—an emphasis on analysis, scenario planning, realism and making use of specialized aid instruments—are equally relevant for supporting scaling up in fragile countries. A persuasive argument can be made that the adoption of a more explicit scaling up approach by donors can form part of a risk management strategy in fragile states. Scaling up can enable donors to more ambitiously tackle development risks without allowing institutional and project risks to grow unchecked. Ultimately, a donor approach that combines good risk management and scaling up requires strong leadership and well-aligned incentives. Downloads Download the full paper Authors Laurence ChandyJohannes F. Linn Image Source: © Beawiharta Beawiharta / Reuters Full Article
vi Scaling Up Development Interventions: A Review of UNDP's Country Program in Tajikistan By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 21 Feb 2012 12:12:00 -0500 A key objective of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is to assist its member countries in meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). UNDP pursues this objective in various ways, including through analysis and advice to governments on the progress towards the MDGs (such as support for the preparation and monitoring Poverty Reduction Strategies, or PRSs, in poor countries), assistance for capacity building, and financial and technical support for the preparation and implementation of development programs. The challenge of achieving the MDGs remains daunting in many countries, including Tajikistan. To do so will require that all development partners, i.e., the government, civil society, private business and donors, make every effort to scale up successful development interventions. Scaling up refers to “expanding, adapting and sustaining successful policies, programs and projects on different places and over time to reach a greater number of people.” Interventions that are successful as pilots but are not scaled up will create localized benefits for a small number of beneficiaries, but they will fail to contribute significantly to close the MDG gap. This paper aims to assess whether and how well UNDP is supporting scaling up in its development programs in Tajikistan. While the principal purpose of this assessment was to assist the UNDP country program director and his team in Tajikistan in their scaling up efforts, it also contributes to the overall growing body of evidence on the scaling up of development interventions worldwide. Downloads Download Full Paper Authors Johannes F. Linn Full Article
vi From saving to spending: A proposal to convert retirement account balances into automatic and flexible income By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 31 Jul 2019 13:00:34 +0000 Abstract Converting retirement savings balances into a stream of retirement income is one of the most difficult financial decisions that households need to make. New financial products, however, offer people alternative ways to receive retirement income. We propose a default decumulation solution that could be added to retirement plans to simplify decumulation choices in much… Full Article
vi An automatic way to convert retirement savings into income By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 31 Jul 2019 13:00:58 +0000 In a recent survey, almost three quarters of respondents said they do not have the financial skills to manage their money in retirement. And they are probably right. Converting retirement savings into income is one of the most complex financial tasks people face. The necessary decisions – made in the presence of uncertainty about investment… Full Article
vi Evidence-based retirement policy: Necessity and opportunity By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 29 Jan 2020 14:00:25 +0000 Retirement saving plays an important role in the U.S. economy. Americans hold more than $18 trillion in private retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs, while defined benefit pensions in the private and public sector hold trillions more. Social Security and Medicare comprise nearly 40 percent of the federal budget. The government also provides tax subsidies… Full Article
vi Taiwan shows its mettle in coronavirus crisis, while the WHO is MIA By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 19 Mar 2020 17:48:27 +0000 As the coronavirus pandemic takes a rapidly increasing toll on the health and well-being of people around the world — as well as the global economy and social fabric more broadly — Taiwan has won widespread recognition for its impressive performance in dealing with the crisis. Relying on a combination of preparedness, technology, and transparency,… Full Article
vi Webinar: The effects of the coronavirus outbreak on marginalized communities By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 25 Mar 2020 19:00:40 +0000 As the coronavirus outbreak rapidly spreads, existing social and economic inequalities in society have been exposed and exacerbated. State and local governments across the country, on the advice of public health officials, have shuttered businesses of all types and implemented other social distancing recommendations. Such measures assume a certain basic level of affluence, which many… Full Article
vi How COVID-19 could push Congress to start reining in vulture capitalism By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 09 Apr 2020 14:57:23 +0000 The effects of income inequality have been felt throughout society but they are especially evident in the current coronavirus crisis. For instance, workers in the information economy are able to telework and draw their salaries, but workers in the service sector are either unemployed or at great risk as they interact with customers during a… Full Article