Research Event

G Perseghin
Aug 1, 1999; 48:1600-1606
Articles

Night shift work, behavioral rhythms, and the common MTNR1B risk single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs10830963, associate with type 2 diabetes; however, whether they exert joint effects to exacerbate type 2 diabetes risk is unknown. Among employed participants of European ancestry in the UK Biobank (N = 189,488), we aimed to test the cross-sectional independent associations and joint interaction effects of these risk factors on odds of type 2 diabetes (n = 5,042 cases) and HbA_1c levels (n = 175,156). Current shift work, definite morning or evening preference, and MTNR1B rs10830963 risk allele associated with type 2 diabetes and HbA_1c levels. The effect of rs10830963 was not modified by shift work schedules. While marginal evidence of interaction between self-reported morningness-eveningness preference and rs10830963 on risk of type 2 diabetes was seen, this interaction did not persist when analysis was expanded to include all participants regardless of employment status and when accelerometer-derived sleep midpoint was used as an objective measure of morningness-eveningness preference. Our findings suggest that MTNR1B risk allele carriers who carry out shift work or have more extreme morningness-eveningness preference may not have enhanced risk of type 2 diabetes.

The project purpose is to ensure emissions reduction and resilience strategies, policies and decision-making - both in China and globally - are better informed by an evidence-based perspective on climate-change risks.

OBJECTIVE

To describe sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of youth and young adults with type 1 diabetes who endorsed suicidal ideations as part of routine depression screening and the results of their suicide risk assessments.

The ADA Standards Committee on Dental Informatics has approved the technical report for circulation and comment.

Massachusetts is the fifth state to join the Innovative Assessment Demonstration Authority created through the Every Student Succeeds Act, which allows states to experiment with new forms of testing.

Utah education officials have abruptly canceled a $44 million contract with a Minnesota-based standardized-testing company amid a flurry of technological glitches that have created uncertainty about whether this year's test scores will be validated.

Georgia wants to allow districts to use a series of "formative assessments" instead of one big test at the end of the year.

This evaluation report identifies experiences, motivations, supporting mechanisms, barriers and impacts of fee-for-service commercial activities undertaken by Indigenous Land and Water Management (ILWM) organisations. The report draws on a literature review, interviews with ILWM organisations, administrative data, in-depth case studies, and online survey data.

This report provides an overview of the implementation of the Water plan (Mary Basin) 2006 and summarises the findings of the assessments undertaken for the last five years. The plan supports urban water supply and a variety of industries including significant agricultural production, a growing tourism industry and fisheries.

Aki Vehtari, Janne Ojanen.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 8, , 1--1.

Abstract:
Errata for “A survey of Bayesian predictive methods for model assessment, selection and comparison” by A. Vehtari and J. Ojanen, Statistics Surveys , 6 (2012), 142–228. doi:10.1214/12-SS102.

Aki Vehtari, Janne Ojanen

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 6, 142--228.

Abstract:
To date, several methods exist in the statistical literature for model assessment, which purport themselves specifically as Bayesian predictive methods. The decision theoretic assumptions on which these methods are based are not always clearly stated in the original articles, however. The aim of this survey is to provide a unified review of Bayesian predictive model assessment and selection methods, and of methods closely related to them. We review the various assumptions that are made in this context and discuss the connections between different approaches, with an emphasis on how each method approximates the expected utility of using a Bayesian model for the purpose of predicting future data.

Tsuyoshi Kunihama, Zehang Richard Li, Samuel J. Clark, Tyler H. McCormick.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 241--256.

Abstract:
The distribution of deaths by cause provides crucial information for public health planning, response and evaluation. About 60% of deaths globally are not registered or given a cause, limiting our ability to understand disease epidemiology. Verbal autopsy (VA) surveys are increasingly used in such settings to collect information on the signs, symptoms and medical history of people who have recently died. This article develops a novel Bayesian method for estimation of population distributions of deaths by cause using verbal autopsy data. The proposed approach is based on a multivariate probit model where associations among items in questionnaires are flexibly induced by latent factors. Using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium labeled data that include both VA and medically certified causes of death, we assess performance of the proposed method. Further, we estimate important questionnaire items that are highly associated with causes of death. This framework provides insights that will simplify future data

Emily Berg, Danhyang Lee.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2158--2188.

Abstract:
Quantiles of the distributions of several measures of erosion are important parameters in the Conservation Effects Assessment Project, a survey intended to quantify soil and nutrient loss on crop fields. Because sample sizes for domains of interest are too small to support reliable direct estimators, model based methods are needed. Quantile regression is appealing for CEAP because finding a single family of parametric models that adequately describes the distributions of all variables is difficult and small area quantiles are parameters of interest. We construct empirical Bayes predictors and bootstrap mean squared error estimators based on the linearly interpolated generalized Pareto distribution (LIGPD). We apply the procedures to predict county-level quantiles for four types of erosion in Wisconsin and validate the procedures through simulation.

Abdelaati Daouia, Stéphane Girard, Gilles Stupfler.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 531--556.

Abstract:
Expectiles define a least squares analogue of quantiles. They are determined by tail expectations rather than tail probabilities. For this reason and many other theoretical and practical merits, expectiles have recently received a lot of attention, especially in actuarial and financial risk management. Their estimation, however, typically requires to consider non-explicit asymmetric least squares estimates rather than the traditional order statistics used for quantile estimation. This makes the study of the tail expectile process a lot harder than that of the standard tail quantile process. Under the challenging model of heavy-tailed distributions, we derive joint weighted Gaussian approximations of the tail empirical expectile and quantile processes. We then use this powerful result to introduce and study new estimators of extreme expectiles and the standard quantile-based expected shortfall, as well as a novel expectile-based form of expected shortfall. Our estimators are built on general weighted combinations of both top order statistics and asymmetric least squares estimates. Some numerical simulations and applications to actuarial and financial data are provided.

Scott Marion, who consults states on testing, talks about why it's important for vendors and public officials to work cooperatively in renegotiating contracts amid assessment cancellations caused by COVID-19.

The post How States, Assessment Companies Can Work Together Amid Coronavirus Testing Cancellations appeared first on Market Brief.

EdWeek Market Brief asked district officials in a nationwide survey about their most urgent assessment needs, as they cope with COVID-19 and tentatively plan for reopening schools.

The post What Districts Want From Assessments, as They Grapple With the Coronavirus appeared first on Market Brief.

Randy L. Buckner
Feb 11, 2009; 29:1860-1873
Neurobiology of Disease

Banks globally entered the Covid-19 crisis with roughly US$ 5 trillion of capital above their Pillar 1 regulatory requirements. The amount of additional lending will depend on how hard banks' capital is hit by the crisis, on their willingness to use the buffers and on other policy support. In an adverse stress scenario such as the savings and loan crisis, banks' usable buffers would decline to US$ 800 billion, which could support US$ 5 trillion of additional loans (6% of total loans outstanding). Yet in a severely adverse scenario, similar to the Great Financial Crisis, the corresponding figures would be only US$ 270 billion and US$ 1 trillion (1.3% of total loans).

Banks' performance on equity and debt markets since the Covid-19 outbreak has been on a par with that experienced after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. During the initial phase, the market sell-off swept over all banks, which underperformed significantly relative to other sectors. Still, markets showed some differentiation by bank nationality, and credit default swap (CDS) spreads rose the most for those banks that had entered the crisis with the highest level of credit risk. The subsequent stabilisation, brought about by forceful policy measures since mid-March, has favoured banks with higher profitability and healthier balance sheets. Less profitable banks saw their long-term rating outlooks revised to negative. And the CDS spreads of the riskiest banks continued increasing even through the stabilisation phase.

AROUND five people a day are being seen at Covid hubs across Scotland as demand for the service declines.

Although gastroenteritis guidelines describe the need to perform oral rehydration, it remains underused, resulting in excessive use of intravenous rehydration. Other interventions, such as antiemetic administration, vary according to location, often resulting in differences in cost and outcomes.

In this nationwide cohort, intravenous rehydration use varied dramatically. Use was associated with the institution providing care and an increase in the need for future health care provider visits. Use of ondansetron also varied significantly across Canada. (Read the full article)

Assessing for adequacy of supervision in the clinical setting is challenging and may result in significant variability in care. Clinicians must quickly decide if a child and family necessitate direct counseling, further intervention, or require reporting to state agencies.

This study identified the most important characteristics for the evaluation of the adequacy of supervision of a young child. A standardized scale using these characteristics may result in an efficient means to reduce variability in care. (Read the full article)

Adherence to guidelines has generally been shown to improve patient care and reduce the cost of care. Current understanding of the varying reasons why clinicians deviate from guidelines is based on surveys and retrospective reviews.

We examined clinician deviations from guidelines in a prospective fashion and attempted to categorize those deviations. Better elucidation of clinician reasoning behind deviations may inform care improvement and help define strategies to eliminate unjustifiable deviations. (Read the full article)

The rapidly rising prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents over the past 4 decades is a significant public health concern. Experts urge pediatric health care providers to provide routine obesity screening and counseling.

We provide the first nationally representative estimates of the rate of screening and counseling for adolescent obesity by pediatric health professionals. We also examine how socioeconomic factors and access to health care affect whether adolescents receive these services. (Read the full article)

Adolescent dating violence has been studied from the perpetrators' and survivors' perspectives. The risk and protective factors have been explored, and the strength of the association of these factors with adolescent dating violence has been adequately described.

This study assessed the perceptions and practices of school counselors on adolescent dating violence. Knowing school personnel’s practices and perceptions may help researchers and practitioners gain insights into possible ways to alleviate the problem of dating violence in adolescents. (Read the full article)

In inverse proportion to the steadily declining under-5 mortality rate, prevalence of childhood disability has doubled in the past decade in Bangladesh. The Rapid Neurodevelopmental Assessment (RNDA) tool has been shown to be reliable and valid for assessment of a range of neurodevelopmental impairments (NDIs) and disabilities in children younger than 2 years. There is currently a lack of professional expertise for assessing NDIs in 2- to 5-year-old children in low- and middle-income countries.

We developed a set of instruments as part of the RNDA for administration by a single professional with experience in child development to assess >2- to 5-year-old children for a wide range of NDIs. The tool was acceptable to mothers, interrater reliability was high, and proportions of children with NDIs were elevated among the lowest income groups and in stunted children, demonstrating discriminant validity. The RNDA was valid for identifying >2- to 5-year-old children with a range of NDIs, especially in cognitive, behavior, and motor functions. Validity of the RNDA for vision, hearing, and seizure disorders needs further research. (Read the full article)

Effective implementation of Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network head trauma rules depends on their early application. As the registered nurse (RN) is often the first to evaluate children with blunt head trauma, initial RN assessments will be an important component of this strategy.

We demonstrated fair to moderate agreement between RN and physician providers in the application of the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network head trauma rules. Effective implementation strategies may require physician verification of RN predictor assessments before computed tomography decision-making. (Read the full article)

Animal studies document dose-dependent and duration-of-therapy-dependent fluoroquinolone cartilage toxicity in weight-bearing joints. Preliminary pediatric data collected after fluoroquinolone treatment and up to 1 year posttreatment in blinded and unblinded studies suggest the possibility of cartilage toxicity in children.

These are the first prospectively collected data on fluoroquinolone musculoskeletal safety collected posttherapy from randomized, comparative studies of respiratory tract infections and analyzed at 5 years. Long-term musculoskeletal adverse events occurred with equal frequency in both levofloxacin and comparator groups. (Read the full article)

In 2003, the US Food and Drug Administration issued warnings about hyperglycemia and diabetes with second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs). Since 2004, hyperglycemic and diabetes risk with SGAs has been stated in product labels, and published guidelines have recommended baseline metabolic screening.

Between 2006 and 2011, 11% of children 2 to 18 years starting an SGA had baseline glucose assessed. Youth at risk for diabetes may not be identified. Further, lack of screening impedes determining the contribution of SGAs to hyperglycemia. (Read the full article)

Many population-based studies including pubertal children are based on self-assessment of pubertal maturation, the reliability of which is uncertain.

Self-assessment is not reliable for precise pubertal staging. Simple distinctions between prepuberty and puberty showed moderate agreement with clinical examinations. Parents and girls tended to underestimate and boys to overestimate pubertal development by up to 50% and 30%, respectively. (Read the full article)

Clinical pain assessment methods in youth are vulnerable to underestimation bias and underrecognition. Facial expressions are sensitive, specific biomarkers of the presence and severity of pain. Computer vision–based pattern recognition enables measurement of pain-related facial expressions from video.

This study demonstrates initial validity for developing computer vision algorithms for automated pain assessment in children. The system developed and tested in this study could provide standardized, continuous, and valid patient monitoring that is potentially scalable. (Read the full article)

Texas has become the first state to have its "alternate assessment aligned to modified academic-achievement standards" pass the U.S. Department of Education's peer-review process.

The U.S. tests its students more than most nations, but is the deluge of data providing the information schools need?

Helen Janc Malone introduces this week's blog theme, "accountability and assessment systems." She writes that at the heart of the current accountability debate is a fundamental question, What is the purpose of all the collected assessment data? Are they an end game or a starting point to educational

If we continue to focus on student growth and improvement as learners, keep track of that progress, and watch its impact on standard test results, will we be able to know if what we are doing is helping students develop as learners and thinkers.

Background: This study summarizes drug resistance analyses in 4 recent phase 2b trials of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion inhibitor presatovir in naturally infected adults.

Methods: Adult hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients, lung transplant recipients, or hospitalized patients with naturally acquired, laboratory-confirmed RSV infection were enrolled in 4 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies with study-specific presatovir dosing. Full-length RSV F sequences amplified from nasal swabs obtained at baseline and postbaseline were analyzed by population sequencing. Substitutions at RSV fusion inhibitor resistance-associated positions are reported.

Results: Genotypic analyses were performed on 233 presatovir-treated and 149 placebo-treated subjects. RSV F variant V127A was present in 8 subjects at baseline. Population sequencing detected treatment-emergent substitutions in 10/89 (11.2%) HCT recipients with upper and 6/29 (20.7%) with lower respiratory tract infection, 1/35 (2.9%) lung transplant recipients, and 1/80 (1.3%) hospitalized patients treated with presatovir; placebo-treated subjects had no emergent resistance-associated substitutions. Subjects with substitutions at resistance-associated positions had smaller decreases in viral load during treatment relative to those without, but similar clinical outcomes.

Conclusions: Subject population type and dosing regimen may have influenced RSV resistance development during presatovir treatment. Subjects with vs without genotypic resistance development had decreased virologic responses but comparable clinical outcomes.

As the two big groups of states craft common-assessment systems, experts warn that the smallest details could undermine their work.

This isn't the first time states and schools have turned to projects, portfolios, exhibitions, and essays to measure students' learning. Here are lessons from the last go-around.

Since learning is so nuanced, so too should be the means in which we assess it. Let's offer students the opportunity to be seen as whole people who can demonstrate different skills and knowledge in a plethora of ways over a period of time.

Louisiana and New Hampshire are among the handful of states that have stepped up to experiment with crafting new student assessments under the Every Student Succeeds Act.

Here's a handy glossary on terms like project-based learning, competency-based learning, and standards-based grading.