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Exploring Public International Law and the Rights of Individuals with Chinese Scholars - Part Two

15 November 2014

As part of a roundtable series, Chatham House and China University of Political Science and Law (CUPL) held a two-day roundtable meeting in Beijing on public international law and the rights of individuals.

Sonya Sceats

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme

20140624ChinaHumanRights.jpg

The Representative of China at the 19th Session of the Human Rights Council, Palais des Nations, Geneva. 27 February 2012. Photo: UN Photo Geneva/Violaine Martin.

The specific objectives were to:

  • create a platform for Chinese international law academics working on international human rights law issues to present their thinking and exchange ideas with counterparts from outside China;
  • build stronger understanding within the wider international law community of intellectual debates taking place in China about the international human rights system and China's role within it;
  • support networking between Chinese and non-Chinese academics working on international human rights and related areas of international law.

The roundtable forms part of a wider Chatham House project exploring China's impact on the international human rights system and was inspired by early discussions with a burgeoning community of Chinese academics thinking, writing (mainly in Chinese) and teaching about international human rights law.

For CUPL, one of the largest and most prestigious law schools in China and perhaps the only university in the world with an entire faculty of international law, the initiative is part of a drive to forge partnerships beyond China in the international law field.

The meeting in Beijing was hosted by CUPL and involved 20 participants, 10 Chinese (from universities and other academic institutions in Beijing) and 10 non-Chinese (from Australia, the Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States).

To ensure continuity while also expanding the experts network being built, the second meeting included a mix of participants from the first meeting and some new participants.

All discussions were held in English under the Chatham House Rule.




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Exploring Public International Law and the Rights of Individuals with Chinese Scholars - Part Three

6 March 2016

As part of a roundtable series, Chatham House, China University of Political Science and Law (CUPL) and the Graduate Institute Geneva held a two-day roundtable meeting in Geneva on public international law and the rights of individuals.

Sonya Sceats

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme

20140624ChinaHumanRights.jpg

The Representative of China at the 19th Session of the Human Rights Council, Palais des Nations, Geneva. 27 February 2012. Photo: UN Photo Geneva/Violaine Martin.

The specific objectives were to:

  • create a platform for Chinese international law academics working on international human rights law issues to present their thinking and exchange ideas with counterparts from outside China;
  • build stronger understanding within the wider international law community of intellectual debates taking place in China about the international human rights system and China's role within it;
  • support networking between Chinese and non-Chinese academics working on international human rights and related areas of international law.

The roundtable forms part of a wider Chatham House project exploring China's impact on the international human rights system and was inspired by early discussions with a burgeoning community of Chinese academics thinking, writing (mainly in Chinese) and teaching about international human rights law.

For CUPL, one of the largest and most prestigious law schools in China and perhaps the only university in the world with an entire faculty of international law, the initiative is part of a drive to forge partnerships beyond China in the international law field.

The meeting in Geneva was co-hosted by the Graduate Institute Geneva and involved 19 participants, 9 Chinese (from six research institutions in Beijing and Shanghai) and 11 non-Chinese (from eight research institutions in Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States).

To ensure continuity while also expanding the expert network being built, the third meeting included a mix of participants from the first two meetings and some new participants

All discussions were held in English under the Chatham House Rule.




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How Human Rights Law Is Evolving to Address Inequality

10 December 2018

Chanu Peiris

Programme Manager, International Law Programme
On the 70th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Chanu Peiris examines how its principles apply to one of today’s burning political issues.

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Copies of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in a variety of languages. Photo: Getty Images.

There is growing attention to human rights in debates on economic inequality. In the UK, concerns about the disproportionate impact of economic policy on vulnerable groups have been raised recently by the UN special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights – who issued a statement criticizing the Conservative government’s austerity policies – as well as in a report from the UK government’s independent Equality and Human Rights Commission. These reports echo global concerns about fiscal policies, poverty and extreme economic inequality.

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights – which celebrates its 70th anniversary today – and the human rights treaties it inspired do not expressly address income and wealth gaps. But international human rights law is playing an increasing role in addressing economic polarization. Those concerned about inequality should consider how, especially over the past 25 years, the principles of socioeconomic rights have been clarified by courts and other human rights mechanisms. 

While the focus in the Global North has historically been on civil and political rights, such as the prohibition on torture or the right to fair trial, international human rights law does set out economic and social rights. For example, Article 23(4) of the Declaration – which is replicated in the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and other treaties – calls for the right to collective bargaining in employment. Weakening protection in this area has been raised as a partial cause of the current escalation in income inequality. 

Human rights law also guarantees rights, including to education, healthcare and social security, that have redistributive potential and so have the potential to mitigate inequality.

Human rights law recognizes that fulfilment of economic and social rights, unlike civil and political rights, can be limited by the resources available to different states, and this conditionality – along with a lack of guidelines to assist with implementation and monitoring – has historically shielded fiscal policies from human rights scrutiny. However, attitudes have shifted.

For example, international human rights law has come to embody a commitment to tackling substantive inequalities which impair human dignity.  This requires the state regulate markets, and redistribute resources, in order to prevent discrimination against disadvantaged groups such as the poor. 

The UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and other human rights bodies assert that states have an immediate obligation, even during times of resource constraint, to ensure the fulfilment, without discrimination, of the minimum essential levels of socioeconomic rights, for example essential subsistence and basic shelter. Thus, austerity measures that scale back the enjoyment of rights may breach human rights standards. In order to justify such measures, governments need to first demonstrate they have considered ‘less restrictive’ avenues, including taxation options.

Although the application of human rights standards to economic policy is an emerging area, human rights campaigners have been successfully leveraging these protections to address the causes and consequences of the inequality crisis. 

For example, in case No. 66/2011 the European Committee of Social Rights overturned austerity measures that would have brought wages under the poverty level, citing breaches of labour rights and protections against discrimination. In Brazil, a coalition of civil society actors successfully used human rights standards to legitimize their critiques of a 2008 tax reform bill that would have given additional tax breaks to the wealthy while withdrawing resources for social services.

Beyond legal enforcement, framing concerns within the architecture of human rights can shift power to rights-bearers and move debates on tackling extreme inequality from the policy sphere into one where the state has a duty for which it is accountable. While the state bears primary responsibility for realizing human rights, non-state actors such as businesses have responsibilities to respect human rights. Thus, human rights can also help communities to recast the scope of the crisis to one of shared responsibility.

While human rights have seen many normative developments and advocacy successes since the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the last 70 years also offer several lessons and strategies to adopt going forward. 

As highlighted at a recent Chatham House event, the continued emphasis on civil and political rights in the discussion about human rights is at odds with the lived experience of individuals and communities worldwide, who may not feel their economic and material concerns are reflected in campaigns for human rights.

There will need to be a greater emphasis on adapting messaging to be more inclusive and to build alliances between disparate groups. Human rights analysis will also need to move beyond documenting the impact of systemic issues towards tackling root causes and creating a positive vision for economic inclusion and governance.




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Human Rights Priorities: An Agenda for Equality and Social Justice

Members Event

19 November 2019 - 6:00pm to 7:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Michelle Bachelet, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights

Chair: Ruma Mandal, Head, International Law Programme, Chatham House

Following just over one year in office, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, outlines her ongoing priorities at a tumultuous time for fundamental rights protections worldwide.

She discusses the rights implications of climate change, gender inequality including the advancement of sexual and reproductive rights, the protection of vulnerable groups and the need to work closely with states, civil society and business to protect and advance human rights.

Department/project

Members Events Team




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Organellar maps through proteomic profiling - a conceptual guide

Georg H H Borner
Apr 28, 2020; 0:R120.001971v1-mcp.R120.001971
Review




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Virtual Issue: Technological Innovations

Anne-Claude Gingras
Apr 1, 2020; 19:572-573
Editorial





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Virtual Roundtable: Iraq in Uncertain Times

Invitation Only Research Event

30 March 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:30pm

Event participants

Toby Dodge, Associate Fellow, MENA Programme, Chatham House
Mac Skelton, Director, IRIS, American University of Iraq-Sulaimani
Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Investment Officer, AFC Iraq Fund
Hanaa Edwar, Co-founder and Chairperson, Iraqi Al-Amal Association
Chair: Renad Mansour, Senior Research Fellow, MENA Programme, Chatham House

The first months of 2020 have proven tumultuous for Iraq. The US killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January threatened to engulf the region in war and led to continued tit-for-tat violence between the US and Iran that has become almost a daily reality in Baghdad.

Amid the ongoing protests that since last October have challenged the social contract and led to a violent response claiming 600 deaths and injuring tens of thousands, the government is still without a prime minister after Adil abd al-Mehdi's resignation in November 2019, leaving the country directionless.

Most recently, the spread of COVID-19 threatens to expose a mismanaged healthcare system. At the same time, the rapid fall in the price of oil has impacted the government's ability to respond to or cope with these crises.

At this virtual roundtable, part of the Chatham House Iraq Initiative, experts explore these developments and try to unpack the implications for Iraq’s fragile peace and stability.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Virtual Roundtable: Russia in MENA

Invitation Only Research Event

3 April 2020 - 2:30pm to 3:30pm

Event participants

Nikolay Kozhanov, Research Associate Professor, Gulf Studies Center,  Qatar University, Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Tim Eaton, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Sanam Vakil, Senior Research Fellow, Project Director, Future Dynamics of the Gulf, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Russia’s Middle East policy is driven by a complex mixture of traditional factors (such as the ongoing confrontation with the West) and new trends. The Kremlin is keen to maintain its position as an influential external broker. However, it is not confident Russia would be able to respond effectively if forced into a reactive mode by other regional players. The Kremlin therefore seeks to retain initiative and shape the agenda according to its needs and resources. This makes prediction of Moscow’s next moves in the region a challenging, but not impossible, task.

Nikolay Kozhanov will offer remarks on the changes that have taken place in Russia’s strategy since the publication of his research paper Russian Policy Across the Middle East: Motivations and Methods (2018), while Tim Eaton will explore Russia's increasing engagement in the Libyan conflict, and its now central role in Libya's diplomacy.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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COVID-19 Crisis – Business as Usual for Gaza?

6 May 2020

Mohammed Abdalfatah

Asfari Foundation Academy Fellow
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented challenges, economic collapse and strict lockdowns in many parts of the world. For the people of Gaza, this reality is nothing new.

2020-05-06-covid-19-gaza.jpg

Palestinians light fireworks above the rubble during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan amid concerns about the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Gaza City , 30 April 2020. Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

In August 2012, when the UN released its report Gaza in 2020: A liveable place?, they could not have imagined what the world would look like in 2020: cities under lockdown, restrictions on movement, border closures, widespread unemployment, economic collapse, fear and anxiety and, above all, uncertainty about what the future holds.

For Gaza’s population of 2 million people this reality is nothing new. The conditions that the rest of the world are currently experiencing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is similar to the tight blockade Gaza has been living under ever since Hamas took over in 2007. Israel has imposed severe restrictions on the movement of people and goods, youth unemployment has reached 60 per cent, and over 80 per cent of Gaza’s population are now dependent on international aid.

The people of Gaza are having to face the COVID-19 crisis already at a disadvantage, with poor infrastructure, limited resources and a shortage of the most basic services, such as water and power supply. It also has a fragile health system, with hospitals lacking essential medical supplies and equipment, as well as the capacity to deal with the outbreak as there are only 84 ICU beds and ventilators available.

 

Meanwhile, intra-Palestinian divisions have persisted and were evident in the initial reaction to the pandemic. When President Mahmoud Abbas announced a state of emergency, it took two days for the Hamas-led government in Gaza to follow suit and shut down schools and universities. They later made a separate emergency appeal to address the crisis and prepare for a COVID-19 response in Gaza. This lack of coordination is typical of the way the Palestinian Authority and Hamas approach crisis situations.

After the initial uncoordinated response, Hamas, as the de-facto ruler of Gaza, has asserted its ability to control Gaza’s borders by putting in place quarantine measures for everyone who enters the strip, whether through the Erez checkpoint with Israel or the Rafah border with Egypt. They have also assigned 21 hospitals, hotels, and schools as compulsory quarantine centres for all arrivals from abroad, who have to stay in quarantine for 21 days. In comparison, there are 20 quarantine centres in the West Bank.  These strict measures have prevented the spread of the virus in the community and confined it to the quarantine centres, with only 20 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of 6 May. Gaza’s de-facto authorities have also been able to monitor markets and prices to ensure the availability of essential goods.

Faced with a major crisis, Al-Qassam Brigades – the armed wing of Hamas – have tried to play the role of a national army by participating in efforts to fight the pandemic. They have relatively good logistical capacity and have contributed to the construction of two quarantine facilities with a total capacity of 1,000 units to prepare for more arrivals into Gaza. At the local level, municipalities have been disinfecting public spaces and facilities in addition to disseminating information about the virus and related preventative and protective measures. Other precautionary measures put in place include closing the weekly open markets, and restricting social gatherings like weddings and funerals.

Despite COVID-19, it’s business as usual when it comes to international dealings with Gaza. The key parties in the conflict – Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority – along with the main external actors – Egypt, the United Nations and Qatar – have continued to stick to their policies aimed at keeping the security situation under control and preventing further escalation. Although Israel has allowed entry of pharmaceutical supplies and medical equipment into Gaza during the pandemic, it has kept its restrictions on the movement of goods and people in place, while keeping a close eye on the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Gaza – a major outbreak here would be a nightmare scenario for Israel.

Meanwhile, Qatar has continued to address the humanitarian and economic needs of Gaza in an attempt to ease the pressure and prevent further escalation. It has pledged $150 million over the next six months to help families in Gaza from poorer backgrounds. Gaza has also been discussed by the Middle East Quartet, as Nickolay Mladenov, the UN special coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, expressed his concern about the risk of a disease outbreak in Gaza during a call with the members of the Quartet.

Amid the pandemic, threats are still being exchanged between Israel and Hamas. The Israeli defence minister, Naftali Bennett, requested that in return for providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, Hamas agrees to return the remains of two Israeli soldiers killed in the 2014 war. While openly rejecting Bennett's statement, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has offered to move forward with a prisoner swap deal if Israel agrees to release elderly prisoners and detainees in addition to detained women and children. Though dealing with its own COVID-19 outbreak, Egypt has started to mediate between the two parties in an attempt to stabilize the situation and reach a prisoner swap deal.

In the wake of this pandemic, lessons should be learned and policies should be examined, by all parties. Firstly, Israel should re-evaluate its security measures towards Gaza by easing restrictions on movement and trade which would have a positive impact on living conditions for Gaza’s population. The current measures have proven to be unsustainable and have contributed to the endless cycle of violence. Secondly, the intra-Palestinian division should end, to save Palestinians from contradictory policies and insufficient capacity on both sides. In fact, all previous attempts have failed to end this self-destructive division and this is due to the absence of political will on both sides. Elections seem to be the only viable path towards unity. Finally, efforts by the international community should go beyond stabilizing the security situation and ongoing crisis inside Gaza, where disruption of normal life is the norm.

While the world has reacted to this pandemic with a whole host of new policies and emergency measures, it has remained business as usual when dealing with Gaza. Should COVID-19 spread in Gaza, its people – who have already paid the price of a continuous blockade and intra-Palestinian division for 13 years – will pay a heavy price yet again. However, this time it is not a crisis that they alone will have to face.




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Soundscapes of war: the audio-visual performance of war by Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helle Malmvig

This article sets out to bring sound and music to the field of visual studies in International Relations. It argues that IR largely has approached the visual field as if it was without sound; neglecting how audial landscapes frame and direct our interpretation of moving imagery. Sound and music contribute to making imagery intelligible to us, we ‘hear the pictures’ often without noticing. The audial can for instance articulate a visual absence, or blast visual signs, bring out certain emotional stages or subjects’ inner life. Audial frames steer us in distinct directions, they can mute the cries of the wounded in war, or amplify the sounds of joy of soldiers shooting in the air. To bring the audial and the visual analytically and empirically together, the article therefore proposes four key analytical themes: 1) the audial–visual frame, 2) point of view/point of audition, 3) modes of audio-visual synchronization and 4) aesthetics moods. These are applied to a study of ‘war music videos’ in Iraq and Syria made and circulated by Shi'a militias currently fighting there. Such war music videos, it is suggested, are not just artefacts of popular culture, but have become integral parts of how warfare is practiced today, and one that is shared by soldiers in the US and Europe. War music videos are performing war, just as they shape how war is known by spectators and participants alike.




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Combined Visual and Semi-quantitative Evaluation Improves Outcome Prediction by Early Mid-treatment 18F-fluoro-deoxi-glucose Positron Emission Tomography in Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma.

The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive and prognostic value of interim FDG PET (iPET) in evaluating early response to immuno-chemotherapy after two cycles (PET-2) in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) by applying two different methods of interpretation: the Deauville visual five-point scale (5-PS) and a change in standardised uptake value by semi-quantitative evaluation. Methods: 145 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL underwent pre-treatment PET (PET-0) and PET-2 assessment. PET-2 was classified according to both the visual 5-PS and percentage SUV changes (SUV). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to compare the accuracy of the two methods for predicting progression-free survival (PFS). Survival estimates, based on each method separately and combined, were calculated for iPET-positive (iPET+) and iPET-negative (iPET–) groups and compared. Results: Both with visual and SUV-based evaluations significant differences were found between the PFS of iPET– and iPET+ patient groups (p<0.001). Visually the best negative (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) occurred when iPET was defined as positive if Deauville score 4-5 (89% and 59%, respectively). Using the 66% SUV cut-off value, reported previously, NPV and PPV were 80 and 76%, respectively. SUV at 48.9% cut-off point, reported for the first time here, produced 100% specificity along with the highest sensitivity (24%). Visual and semi-quantitative SUV<48.9% assessment of each PET-2 gave the same PET-2 classification (positive or negative) in 70% (102/145) of all patients. This combined classification delivered NPV and PPV of 89% and 100% respectively, and all iPET+ patients failed to achieve or remain in remission. Conclusion: In this large consistently treated and assessed series of DLBCL, iPET had good prognostic value interpreted either visually or semi-quantitatively. We determined that the most effective SUV cut-off was at 48.9%, and that when combined with visual 5-PS assessment, a positive PET-2 was highly predictive of treatment failure.




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Label-free Visualization of Early Cancer Hepatic Micrometastasis and Intraoperative Image-guided Surgery by Photoacoustic Imaging

Objectives: The detection of cancer micrometastasis for early diagnosis and treatment poses a great challenge for conventional imaging techniques. The aim of study is to evaluate the performance of photoacoustic imaging (PAI) in detecting hepatic micrometastases from melanoma in a very early stage and perform tumor resection by intraoperative photoacoustic image-guidance. Methods: In vivo studies were performed by following protocols approved by the Ethical Committee for Animal Research at Xiamen University. First, a B16 melanoma hepatic metastasis mouse model (n = 10) was established to study the development of micrometastases in vivo. Next, the hepatic metastasis mice models were imaged by scalable PAI instrument, ultrasound, 9.4 T high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), and bioluminescence imaging. Photoacoustic images acquired with optical wavelengths spanning from 680 to 850 nm were spectrally unmixed by using a linear least-squares method to differentiate various components. Differences in the signal-to-background ratios among different modalities were determined with the two-tailed paired t test. The diagnosis results were assessed with histologic examinations. Excised liver samples from patients diagnosed with hepatic cancer were also examined to identify tumor boundary. In vivo metastatic melanoma removal in surgery was precisely guided by the portable PAI system. Results: PAI achieved as small as ~400 µm hepatic melanoma detection at a depth up to 7 mm in vivo, which could early detect small melanoma compared with ultrasound and MRI in mouse models. The signal ratio of tumor-to-liver acquired with PAI in micrometastases at 8 days (4.2 ± 0.2, n = 6) and 14 days (9.2 ± 0.4, n = 5) were significantly higher than those obtained with PET/CT (1.8 ± 0.1, n = 5 and 4.5 ± 0.2, n = 5, P <0.001 for both). Functional PAI provided dynamic oxygen saturation changes during tumor growth. The limit of detection was measured to be approximately 219 cells per microliter in vitro. We successfully performed intraoperative photoacoustic image-guided surgery in vivo using the rapid portable PAI system. Conclusion: Our findings offer a rapid and effective tool to noninvasively detect micrometastases and guide intraoperative resection as a complementary clinical imaging application.




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Individual mapping of innate immune cell activation is a candidate marker of patient-specific trajectories of disability worsening in Multiple Sclerosis

Objective: To develop a novel approach to generate individual maps of white matter (WM) innate immune cell activation using 18F-DPA-714 translocator protein (TSPO) positron emission tomography (PET), and to explore the relationship between these maps and individual trajectories of disability worsening in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: Patients with MS (n = 37), whose trajectories of disability worsening over the 2 years preceding study entry were calculated, and healthy controls (n = 19) underwent magnetic resonance magnetic and 18F-DPA-714 PET. A threshold of significant activation of 18F-DPA-714 binding was calculated with a voxel-wise randomized permutation-based comparison between patients and controls, and used to classify each WM voxel in patients as characterized by a significant activation of innate immune cells (DPA+) or not. Individual maps of innate immune cell activation in the WM were employed to calculate the extent of activation in WM regions-of-interests and to classify each WM lesion as "DPA-active", "DPA-inactive" or "unclassified". Results: Compared with the WM of healthy controls, patients with MS had a significantly higher percentage of DPA+ voxels in the normal-appearing WM, (NAWM in patients=24.9±9.7%; WM in controls=14.0±7.8%, p<0.001). In patients with MS, the percentage of DPA+ voxels showed a significant increase from NAWM, to perilesional areas, T2 hyperintense lesions and T1 hypointense lesions (38.1±13.5%, 45.0±17.9%, and 51.9±22.9%, respectively, p<0.001). Among the 1379 T2 lesions identified, 512 were defined as DPA-active and 258 as DPA-inactive. A higher number of lesions classified as DPA-active (OR=1.13, P = 0.009), a higher percentage of DPA+ voxels in the NAWM (OR=1.16, P = 0.009) and in T1-spin-echo lesions (OR=1.06, P = 0.036), were significantly associated with a retrospective more severe clinical trajectory in patients with MS. Conclusion: A more severe trajectory of disability worsening in MS is associated with an innate immune cells activation inside and around WM lesions. 18F-DPA-714 PET may provide a promising biomarker to identify patients at risk of severe clinical trajectory.




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NEMESIS: Non-inferiority, Individual Patient Meta-analysis of Selective Internal Radiation Therapy with Yttrium-90 Resin Microspheres versus Sorafenib in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

In randomized clinical trials (RCTs), no survival benefit has been observed for selective internal radiotherapy (SIRT) over sorafenib in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC). This study aimed to assess by means of a meta-analysis whether overall survival (OS) with SIRT, as monotherapy or followed by sorafenib, is non-inferior to sorafenib, and compare safety profiles for patients with aHCC. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library up to February 2019 to identify RCTs comparing SIRT as monotherapy, or followed by sorafenib, to sorafenib monotherapy among patients with aHCC. The main outcomes were OS and frequency of treatment-related severe adverse events (AEs grade ≥3). The per-protocol population was the primary analysis population. A non-inferiority margin of 1.08 in terms of hazard ratio (HR) was pre-specified for the upper boundary of 95% confidence interval (CI) for OS. Pre-specified subgroup analyses were performed. Results: Three RCTs, involving 1,243 patients, comparing sorafenib with SIRT (SIRveNIB and SARAH) or SIRT followed by sorafenib (SORAMIC), were included. After randomization, 411/635 (64.7%) patients allocated to SIRT and 522/608 (85.8%) allocated to sorafenib completed the studies without major protocol deviations. Median OS with SIRT, whether or not followed by sorafenib, was non-inferior to sorafenib (10.2 and 9.2 months, [HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.78–1.05]). Treatment-related severe adverse events were reported in 149/515 patients (28.9%) who received SIRT and 249/575 (43.3%) who received sorafenib only (p<0.01). Conclusion: SIRT as initial therapy for aHCC is non-inferior to sorafenib in terms of OS, and offers a better safety profile.




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The effects of monosodium glutamate on PSMA radiotracer uptake in men with recurrent prostate cancer: a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled intra-individual imaging study.

The prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) is an excellent target for theranostic applications in prostate cancer (PCa). However, PSMA-targeted radioligand therapy can cause undesirable effects due to high accumulation of PSMA radiotracers in salivary glands and kidneys. This study assessed orally administered monosodium glutamate (MSG) as a potential means of reducing kidney and salivary gland radiation exposure using a PSMA targeting radiotracer. Methods: This prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled study enrolled 10 biochemically recurrent PCa patients. Each subject served as his own control. [18F]DCFPyl PET/CT imaging sessions were performed 3 – 7 days apart, following oral administration of either 12.7 g of MSG or placebo. Data from the two sets of images were analyzed by placing regions of interest on lacrimal, parotid and submandibular glands, left ventricle, liver, spleen, kidneys, bowel, urinary bladder, gluteus muscle and malignant lesions. The results from MSG and placebo scans were compared by paired analysis of the ROI data. Results: A total of 142 pathological lesions along with normal tissues were analyzed. As hypothesized a priori, there was a significant decrease in maximal standardized uptake values corrected for lean body mass (SULmax) on images obtained following MSG administration in the parotids (24 ± 14%, P = 0.001), submandibular glands (35 ± 11%, P<0.001) and kidneys (23 ± 26%, P = 0.014). Significant decreases were also observed in lacrimal glands (49 ± 13%, P<0.001), liver (15 ± 6%, P<0.001), spleen (28 ± 13%, P = 0.001) and bowel (44 ± 13%, P<0.001). Mildly lower blood pool SULmean was observed after MSG administration (decrease of 11 ± 13%, P = 0.021). However, significantly lower radiotracer uptake in terms of SULmean, SULpeak, and SULmax was observed in malignant lesions on scans performed after MSG administration compared to the placebo studies (SULmax median decrease 33%, range -1 to 75%, P<0.001). No significant adverse events occurred and vital signs were stable following placebo or MSG administration. Conclusion: Orally administered MSG significantly decreased salivary gland, kidney and other normal organ PSMA radiotracer uptake in human subjects, using [18F]DCFPyL as an exemplar. However, MSG caused a corresponding reduction in tumor uptake, which may limit the benefits of this approach for diagnostic and therapeutic applications.




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Central and Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa: The Potential of Investment Partnerships for Mutual Benefit

31 October 2019

Trade between Central and Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa has increased significantly in the last decade and a half. There is a strong case to be made for greater economic re-engagement, especially in terms of investment, that has the potential to support inclusive growth in both regions.

Damir Kurtagic

Former Academy Robert Bosch Fellow, Africa Programme

recycled-containerboard-warehouse_mondi_poland.jpg

Recycled containerboard warehouse, Mondi Group, Poland. Photo: Mondi Group.

Summary

  • There are growing economic links between the economies of Central and Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa in terms of both trade and investment. However, while trade has picked up significantly from pre-EU accession levels, investment has not increased to the same extent.
  • Contrary to common assumption, investment flows are not solely from Central and Eastern Europe to sub-Saharan Africa. In reality, the largest investment flow between the two blocs occurs in the opposite direction – from South Africa into Central and Eastern Europe.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa can benefit from a greater commercial relationship focused on attracting sustainable investment from Central and Eastern Europe. For this to happen, commercial strategies towards Central and Eastern European countries need to be put in place before strategy can be reinforced by greater diplomatic and informational support.
  • For many sub-Saharan African governments, there is no overall targeted approach to attracting Central and Eastern European investors. A notable exception is South Africa, where departments have been established at provincial government level to specifically target investment from Central and Eastern Europe.
  • Sub-Saharan African governments expect Central and Eastern European private-sector investment to result not only in job creation, but also to bring spillover benefits such as the transfer of skills and knowledge to domestic industries.
  • Each sub-Saharan African country, in accordance with its individual circumstances, will need to adopt a discrete mix of administrative reform (particularly aimed at cutting red tape), as well as infrastructural and other policies that improve the business environment and generate investor confidence.
  • Much of the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe is somewhat hesitant to invest in sub-Saharan Africa on a greater scale. Many companies are most comfortable operating within their domestic environment; when they invest abroad, it tends to be in the ‘neighbourhood’ with which they are already familiar. Perceptions of risk are often compounded by popular misperceptions and generalizations about sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Central and Eastern European countries stand to gain from a deeper investment relationship. While greater engagement with sub-Saharan Africa has already been pursued by some countries, most of them focus on trade. Institutional support to companies from Central and Eastern Europe (both public and private) has evolved to a degree, but is still not comprehensive. Information for companies interested in investing is either lacking or not shared in an efficient way. And the greatest challenge is ensuring top-level political engagement.
  • EU membership offers clear opportunities for Central and Eastern European countries to invest sustainably and responsibly in sub-Saharan Africa. Not only is financial support forthcoming, through innovative EU financial instruments, but the availability of information relevant to business and the EU’s extensive diplomatic presence in Africa should help to alleviate some of the concerns of Central and Eastern European investors.




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Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya

Research Event

12 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm
Add to Calendar
Natasha Kimani, Academy Associate, Chatham House; Head of Partnerships and Programmes, Shujaaz Inc.
Chair: Tighisti Amare, Assistant Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House
While gender equality was enshrined in Kenyan law under the 2010 constitution, gender-based marginalization remains a significant issue across all levels of society. The advent of devolution in 2013 raised hopes of enhanced gender awareness in policymaking and budgeting, with the 47 newly instituted county governments expected to tackle the dynamics of inequality close to home, but implementation has so far failed to match this initial promise. As Kenya approaches the tenth anniversary of the constitution, and with the COVID-19 pandemic throwing the challenges of gender inequality into sharper relief, it is critical to ensure that constitutional pathways are followed with the requisite level of urgency, commitment and investment to address entrenched gender issues.
 
This event, which will launch the report, Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya, will assess the current status of efforts to devolve and adopt gender-responsive budgeting and decision-making in Kenya, and the priorities and potential future avenues to tackle the implementation gap.
 
This event will be held on the record.

To express your interest in attending, please follow this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful.

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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COVID-19 in South Africa: Leadership, Resilience and Inequality

7 May 2020

Christopher Vandome

Research Fellow, Africa Programme
In a world looking for leadership, South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa has been remarkable. One year after he carried the time-worn ANC through a national election, South Africans are crying out for more.

2020-05-07-Ramaphosa-COVID-South-Africa

Cyril Ramaphosa at NASREC Expo Centre in Johannesburg where facilities are in place to treat coronavirus patients. Photo by JEROME DELAY/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

In the COVID-19 crisis so far, Cyril Ramaphosa has been widely praised for displaying the decisive leadership so many hoped for when they cast their ballot for him in May 2019. Buttressed by others such as health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize, and on a simple objective to prevent transmission, South Africa has been a lesson to the world. Act fast. Act hard.

Former president Thabo Mbeki’s disastrous response to the HIV crisis cast a long shadow over his legacy, and Ramaphosa has taken note. South Africa has had one of the tightest lockdowns in the world. No exercise. No cigarettes. No alcohol.

The lockdown was imposed when the country had only around 1,000 recorded cases and just two deaths. As a result, transmission from returning travellers has not yet led to an exponential infection rate within the community. The government’s swift reaction has bought much needed time with the peak now seemingly delayed to September or October.

Continental and national leadership

Ramaphosa has also emerged as a key focal point for Africa-wide responses. As current chair of the African Union (AU) he leads the continental engagement with the World Health Organization (WHO), and the various international finance institutions, while South African officials are working with the AU and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) on a push for African debt restructuring.

He has also been active in trouble shooting to unlock external assistance to the continent, including from China and Russia. Appointing special envoys is typical of his boardroom-honed leadership style.

International and regional partnerships are vital for resilience and the arrival of 217 Cuban doctors to South Africa is strongly reminiscent of the liberationist solidarity of the Cold War era. And regional economies remain dependent on South Africa to protect their own vulnerable citizens. Following the 2008 financial crisis, it was South Africa’s regional trading relationships that remained robust, while trade with its main global partners in China and the US dropped.

Despite the plaudits, Ramaphosa remains vulnerable to challenge at home, notably around his failure to stimulate South Africa’s moribund economy. On the eve of lockdown, Moody’s joined its peers Standard and Poor’s and Fitch in giving South Africa a below investment grade credit rating. The move was a long time coming. Long mooted economic reforms were slow to materialise, and South Africa had fallen into recession.

Ramaphosa depends on a small core of close advisors and allies, initially united in apparent opposition to the kleptocratic rule of President Jacob Zuma and the deep patronage networks he created within both the party and the state. But this allegiance is being tested by economic reality. Support within the party was already drifting prior to the crisis.

Disagreements are not just technocratic – there are big ideological questions in play around the role of the state in the economy, the level of intervention, and its affordability, with key government figures sceptical of rapid market reforms. Energy minister and former union stalwart Gwede Mantashe is wary of job losses, and minister of public enterprises Pravin Gordhan protective of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Before coronavirus hit, Ramaphosa seemed content to allow these policy disputes to play themselves out with little decisive intervention.

Slow progress on reform, against worsening economic performance, left Ramaphosa and his allies exposed. In January the president missed the UK’s African Investment Summit in order to assert control over a party meeting at which it was expected his detractors would seek to remove Gordhan.

COVID-19 has sharpened thinking

As the independently assertive - and eminently quotable - pro-market reformist finance minister Tito Mboweni stated, ‘you can’t eat ideology’. Accelerated reform and restructuring is required if the government turns to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance.

For the first time, Gordhan has been forced to deny a bailout to beleaguered state airline South African Airways (SAA), and the government’s lockdown bailout of R300 billion has been applauded by business. Much like the fiscal stimulus and recovery plan of 2018, it relies on smart spending, targeting sectors with high multiplier effects. It also includes significant reserve bank loans.

But it has been criticised for not doing enough to help the most vulnerable. There is considerable fear of what could happen when the virus takes hold in South Africa’s townships and informal settlements where social distancing is almost impossible, basic toilet facilities are shared, and HIV and TB rates high.

There are mounting concerns of the humanitarian cost of a prolonged lockdown, and the government has been faster than others in implementing a tiered lockdown system, trying to get people back to work and keep the economy afloat.

South Africa has been criticized by the UN for the use of lethal force by security forces in enforcing lockdown and, in a society plagued by corruption, there are fears legislation to stop the spread of false information could be used to restrict legitimate reporting on the virus response or other issues.

COVID-19 shines a spotlight on societies’ fault-lines worldwide. South Africa is often touted as having one of the highest levels of inequality in the world but, in a globalized economy, these divisions are international as much as they are local.

Resilience comes from within, but also depends on regional and global trading and financial systems. South Africans and international partners have long recognised Ramaphosa’s leadership qualities as an impressive voice for the global south.

But he must also be an advocate for South Africa’s poor. This crisis could accelerate implementation of his landmark pro-poor National Health Insurance and Universal Health Care programmes. Or the hit of COVID-19 on top of South Africa’s existing economic woes could see them derailed entirely. Ramaphosa must push through economic reforms at the same time as managing COVID-19 and rebuilding trust in his government.




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Virtual Issue: Technological Innovations [Editorials]




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Why we need to stop car crash 'women in tech' panels and actually break the glass ceiling

Women in tech panels seldom have anything to offer besides fortune-cookie wisdom and repackaged logic.




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Intellectual Breakdown Has Led to Political Turmoil

3 October 2019

Jim O'Neill

Chair, Chatham House
At the root of growing discontent is a clear problem: the international capitalist model has stopped functioning as it should.

2019-10-03-GJ.jpg

Gilets jaunes protestors march through the Place de la Concorde in Paris in November 2018. Photo: Getty Images.

As the chair of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, I recently hosted an offsite event with some of the organization’s strongest supporters, research staff, and other leaders. I left with a clearer view of three of the biggest issues of our time: slowing productivity growth, anti-establishment politics, and the rise of China.

Generally speaking, the reason that we have so many 'issues' is that the international capitalist model has stopped functioning as it should, particularly in the years since the 2008 financial crisis. This has become increasingly apparent to many Western voters, even as experts have struggled to understand the precise nature of the economic and political shifts underway.

According to the economic textbooks that I grew up with in the 1970s, successful businesses within a market-based system should deliver profits to their equity owners, which in turn should lead to stronger investment and rising wages. At the same time, the potential for profits should attract new market entrants, which in turn should erode the incumbents’ profitability, fuel competition, and spur innovation.

This pattern no longer holds. Incumbents’ reported profits seem to rise persistently – often with the help of extremely efficient balance-sheet and financial management – but there is scarce evidence of rising investment or wages. As a result, productivity across many advanced economies appears to be trending lower.

In these circumstances, it is little wonder that Western voters have been attracted to anti-establishment political parties. But this does not mean that liberal democracy is breaking down, as one often hears. In fact, a forthcoming Chatham House report casts substantial doubt on the credibility of that alarmist claim.

Between the 1970s and the start of the new millennium, politics in many Western countries moved rightward – a trend epitomized by New Labour in the United Kingdom and the Democratic Leadership Council in the United States. For a while, this mode of politics seemed to work fine. Under conditions of persistent growth, low inflation, and a rising tide that lifted all (or most) boats, a neoliberal consensus crystallized, and alternative views were marginalized.

Everything changed after 2008. Over the past decade, markets seemed to have stopped delivering widely shared growth, and mainstream parties have not come up with any new ideas. Voters have thus turned to the once-sidelined voices on the left and right.

The far-left policies being proposed by UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn almost certainly would not work. But that is beside the point. What matters to disadvantaged voters is that Corbyn’s proposals seem to offer something that the current system does not. Similarly, those on the right are unlikely to deliver greater prosperity, but their ideas have the virtue of sounding different. Blaming immigration, 'globalists', and China for everything can make for a powerful sales pitch.

In order to offer voters a better choice, the centre must do much more to ensure that market forces are delivering the same results as they did in previous decades. And here, throwing around sweeping accusations of 'populism' and the end of democracy won’t help.

In trying to explain the current moment, too many of my liberal colleagues are relying on a mistaken narrative. The problem is not that scary new populist forces are destroying the post-war economic model; rather, it is the other way around. The rise of new political movements is the logical result of the earlier period of neoliberal consolidation, and of the failure of centrist thinking to deliver the same results it once did.

To be sure, there is some merit to the argument that social media have facilitated the spread of heterodox – and sometimes toxic – points of view. The leading social-media companies clearly have not spent enough on protecting their users from sophisticated propaganda, scams, and the like. But the real question is why those messages have found so many receptive ears. After all, the same technologies that allow marginal voices to reach a much larger audience are also available to centrists. Barack Obama’s 2008 US presidential campaign harnessed the power of these platforms to great effect.

Finally, the Sino-American dispute over trade and technology may be more dramatic for involving a non-liberal, non-Western rising power. But the essence of the conflict is economic. Within the next decade or so, China’s economy will likely surpass that of the US as the largest in the world.

To my mind, Western policymakers should be countering Sinophobia and encouraging their societies to live comfortably with China. Economic progress in China will not prevent America’s 327 million people from becoming individually wealthier themselves. If the West adopts sensible policies, its own firms and consumers stand to benefit substantially from China’s growth.

As for think tanks like Chatham House, it is clear that we must play a more active role in setting the facts straight on all of these issues. It would be a tragedy to sacrifice our collective prosperity as a result of unclear thinking.

This article was originally published by Project Syndicate.




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Episode 81 - The Internet of Cashierless Shopping (IoCS) Open banking, Qualcomm fines and Amazon Go

This week host Charlotte Jee breaks down open banking with Computerworld UK editor Scott Carey: what is it and why should we care?


Then audience development editor Christina Mercer explains why chip-maker Qualcomm has been fined nearly €1 billion and the EU's sustained attack on big tech (12:00)


Last up is senior staff writer at Tech Advisor Dom Preston to talk about Amazon's revolutionary concept Go store opening in Seattle and if this is really the future of shopping (20:00).

 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




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COVID-19 Crisis – Business as Usual for Gaza?

6 May 2020

Mohammed Abdalfatah

Asfari Foundation Academy Fellow
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented challenges, economic collapse and strict lockdowns in many parts of the world. For the people of Gaza, this reality is nothing new.

2020-05-06-covid-19-gaza.jpg

Palestinians light fireworks above the rubble during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan amid concerns about the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Gaza City , 30 April 2020. Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

In August 2012, when the UN released its report Gaza in 2020: A liveable place?, they could not have imagined what the world would look like in 2020: cities under lockdown, restrictions on movement, border closures, widespread unemployment, economic collapse, fear and anxiety and, above all, uncertainty about what the future holds.

For Gaza’s population of 2 million people this reality is nothing new. The conditions that the rest of the world are currently experiencing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is similar to the tight blockade Gaza has been living under ever since Hamas took over in 2007. Israel has imposed severe restrictions on the movement of people and goods, youth unemployment has reached 60 per cent, and over 80 per cent of Gaza’s population are now dependent on international aid.

The people of Gaza are having to face the COVID-19 crisis already at a disadvantage, with poor infrastructure, limited resources and a shortage of the most basic services, such as water and power supply. It also has a fragile health system, with hospitals lacking essential medical supplies and equipment, as well as the capacity to deal with the outbreak as there are only 84 ICU beds and ventilators available.

 

Meanwhile, intra-Palestinian divisions have persisted and were evident in the initial reaction to the pandemic. When President Mahmoud Abbas announced a state of emergency, it took two days for the Hamas-led government in Gaza to follow suit and shut down schools and universities. They later made a separate emergency appeal to address the crisis and prepare for a COVID-19 response in Gaza. This lack of coordination is typical of the way the Palestinian Authority and Hamas approach crisis situations.

After the initial uncoordinated response, Hamas, as the de-facto ruler of Gaza, has asserted its ability to control Gaza’s borders by putting in place quarantine measures for everyone who enters the strip, whether through the Erez checkpoint with Israel or the Rafah border with Egypt. They have also assigned 21 hospitals, hotels, and schools as compulsory quarantine centres for all arrivals from abroad, who have to stay in quarantine for 21 days. In comparison, there are 20 quarantine centres in the West Bank.  These strict measures have prevented the spread of the virus in the community and confined it to the quarantine centres, with only 20 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of 6 May. Gaza’s de-facto authorities have also been able to monitor markets and prices to ensure the availability of essential goods.

Faced with a major crisis, Al-Qassam Brigades – the armed wing of Hamas – have tried to play the role of a national army by participating in efforts to fight the pandemic. They have relatively good logistical capacity and have contributed to the construction of two quarantine facilities with a total capacity of 1,000 units to prepare for more arrivals into Gaza. At the local level, municipalities have been disinfecting public spaces and facilities in addition to disseminating information about the virus and related preventative and protective measures. Other precautionary measures put in place include closing the weekly open markets, and restricting social gatherings like weddings and funerals.

Despite COVID-19, it’s business as usual when it comes to international dealings with Gaza. The key parties in the conflict – Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority – along with the main external actors – Egypt, the United Nations and Qatar – have continued to stick to their policies aimed at keeping the security situation under control and preventing further escalation. Although Israel has allowed entry of pharmaceutical supplies and medical equipment into Gaza during the pandemic, it has kept its restrictions on the movement of goods and people in place, while keeping a close eye on the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Gaza – a major outbreak here would be a nightmare scenario for Israel.

Meanwhile, Qatar has continued to address the humanitarian and economic needs of Gaza in an attempt to ease the pressure and prevent further escalation. It has pledged $150 million over the next six months to help families in Gaza from poorer backgrounds. Gaza has also been discussed by the Middle East Quartet, as Nickolay Mladenov, the UN special coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, expressed his concern about the risk of a disease outbreak in Gaza during a call with the members of the Quartet.

Amid the pandemic, threats are still being exchanged between Israel and Hamas. The Israeli defence minister, Naftali Bennett, requested that in return for providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, Hamas agrees to return the remains of two Israeli soldiers killed in the 2014 war. While openly rejecting Bennett's statement, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has offered to move forward with a prisoner swap deal if Israel agrees to release elderly prisoners and detainees in addition to detained women and children. Though dealing with its own COVID-19 outbreak, Egypt has started to mediate between the two parties in an attempt to stabilize the situation and reach a prisoner swap deal.

In the wake of this pandemic, lessons should be learned and policies should be examined, by all parties. Firstly, Israel should re-evaluate its security measures towards Gaza by easing restrictions on movement and trade which would have a positive impact on living conditions for Gaza’s population. The current measures have proven to be unsustainable and have contributed to the endless cycle of violence. Secondly, the intra-Palestinian division should end, to save Palestinians from contradictory policies and insufficient capacity on both sides. In fact, all previous attempts have failed to end this self-destructive division and this is due to the absence of political will on both sides. Elections seem to be the only viable path towards unity. Finally, efforts by the international community should go beyond stabilizing the security situation and ongoing crisis inside Gaza, where disruption of normal life is the norm.

While the world has reacted to this pandemic with a whole host of new policies and emergency measures, it has remained business as usual when dealing with Gaza. Should COVID-19 spread in Gaza, its people – who have already paid the price of a continuous blockade and intra-Palestinian division for 13 years – will pay a heavy price yet again. However, this time it is not a crisis that they alone will have to face.




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COVID-19 in South Africa: Leadership, Resilience and Inequality

7 May 2020

Christopher Vandome

Research Fellow, Africa Programme
In a world looking for leadership, South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa has been remarkable. One year after he carried the time-worn ANC through a national election, South Africans are crying out for more.

2020-05-07-Ramaphosa-COVID-South-Africa

Cyril Ramaphosa at NASREC Expo Centre in Johannesburg where facilities are in place to treat coronavirus patients. Photo by JEROME DELAY/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

In the COVID-19 crisis so far, Cyril Ramaphosa has been widely praised for displaying the decisive leadership so many hoped for when they cast their ballot for him in May 2019. Buttressed by others such as health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize, and on a simple objective to prevent transmission, South Africa has been a lesson to the world. Act fast. Act hard.

Former president Thabo Mbeki’s disastrous response to the HIV crisis cast a long shadow over his legacy, and Ramaphosa has taken note. South Africa has had one of the tightest lockdowns in the world. No exercise. No cigarettes. No alcohol.

The lockdown was imposed when the country had only around 1,000 recorded cases and just two deaths. As a result, transmission from returning travellers has not yet led to an exponential infection rate within the community. The government’s swift reaction has bought much needed time with the peak now seemingly delayed to September or October.

Continental and national leadership

Ramaphosa has also emerged as a key focal point for Africa-wide responses. As current chair of the African Union (AU) he leads the continental engagement with the World Health Organization (WHO), and the various international finance institutions, while South African officials are working with the AU and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) on a push for African debt restructuring.

He has also been active in trouble shooting to unlock external assistance to the continent, including from China and Russia. Appointing special envoys is typical of his boardroom-honed leadership style.

International and regional partnerships are vital for resilience and the arrival of 217 Cuban doctors to South Africa is strongly reminiscent of the liberationist solidarity of the Cold War era. And regional economies remain dependent on South Africa to protect their own vulnerable citizens. Following the 2008 financial crisis, it was South Africa’s regional trading relationships that remained robust, while trade with its main global partners in China and the US dropped.

Despite the plaudits, Ramaphosa remains vulnerable to challenge at home, notably around his failure to stimulate South Africa’s moribund economy. On the eve of lockdown, Moody’s joined its peers Standard and Poor’s and Fitch in giving South Africa a below investment grade credit rating. The move was a long time coming. Long mooted economic reforms were slow to materialise, and South Africa had fallen into recession.

Ramaphosa depends on a small core of close advisors and allies, initially united in apparent opposition to the kleptocratic rule of President Jacob Zuma and the deep patronage networks he created within both the party and the state. But this allegiance is being tested by economic reality. Support within the party was already drifting prior to the crisis.

Disagreements are not just technocratic – there are big ideological questions in play around the role of the state in the economy, the level of intervention, and its affordability, with key government figures sceptical of rapid market reforms. Energy minister and former union stalwart Gwede Mantashe is wary of job losses, and minister of public enterprises Pravin Gordhan protective of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Before coronavirus hit, Ramaphosa seemed content to allow these policy disputes to play themselves out with little decisive intervention.

Slow progress on reform, against worsening economic performance, left Ramaphosa and his allies exposed. In January the president missed the UK’s African Investment Summit in order to assert control over a party meeting at which it was expected his detractors would seek to remove Gordhan.

COVID-19 has sharpened thinking

As the independently assertive - and eminently quotable - pro-market reformist finance minister Tito Mboweni stated, ‘you can’t eat ideology’. Accelerated reform and restructuring is required if the government turns to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance.

For the first time, Gordhan has been forced to deny a bailout to beleaguered state airline South African Airways (SAA), and the government’s lockdown bailout of R300 billion has been applauded by business. Much like the fiscal stimulus and recovery plan of 2018, it relies on smart spending, targeting sectors with high multiplier effects. It also includes significant reserve bank loans.

But it has been criticised for not doing enough to help the most vulnerable. There is considerable fear of what could happen when the virus takes hold in South Africa’s townships and informal settlements where social distancing is almost impossible, basic toilet facilities are shared, and HIV and TB rates high.

There are mounting concerns of the humanitarian cost of a prolonged lockdown, and the government has been faster than others in implementing a tiered lockdown system, trying to get people back to work and keep the economy afloat.

South Africa has been criticized by the UN for the use of lethal force by security forces in enforcing lockdown and, in a society plagued by corruption, there are fears legislation to stop the spread of false information could be used to restrict legitimate reporting on the virus response or other issues.

COVID-19 shines a spotlight on societies’ fault-lines worldwide. South Africa is often touted as having one of the highest levels of inequality in the world but, in a globalized economy, these divisions are international as much as they are local.

Resilience comes from within, but also depends on regional and global trading and financial systems. South Africans and international partners have long recognised Ramaphosa’s leadership qualities as an impressive voice for the global south.

But he must also be an advocate for South Africa’s poor. This crisis could accelerate implementation of his landmark pro-poor National Health Insurance and Universal Health Care programmes. Or the hit of COVID-19 on top of South Africa’s existing economic woes could see them derailed entirely. Ramaphosa must push through economic reforms at the same time as managing COVID-19 and rebuilding trust in his government.




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Organellar maps through proteomic profiling - a conceptual guide [Review]

Protein subcellular localization is an essential and highly regulated determinant of protein function. Major advances in mass spectrometry and imaging have allowed the development of powerful spatial proteomics approaches for determining protein localization at the whole cell scale. Here, a brief overview of current methods is presented, followed by a detailed discussion of organellar mapping through proteomic profiling. This relatively simple yet flexible approach is rapidly gaining popularity, due to its ability to capture the localizations of thousands of proteins in a single experiment. It can be used to generate high-resolution cell maps, and as a tool for monitoring protein localization dynamics. This review highlights the strengths and limitations of the approach, and provides guidance to designing and interpreting profiling experiments. 




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Soundscapes of war: the audio-visual performance of war by Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helle Malmvig

This article sets out to bring sound and music to the field of visual studies in International Relations. It argues that IR largely has approached the visual field as if it was without sound; neglecting how audial landscapes frame and direct our interpretation of moving imagery. Sound and music contribute to making imagery intelligible to us, we ‘hear the pictures’ often without noticing. The audial can for instance articulate a visual absence, or blast visual signs, bring out certain emotional stages or subjects’ inner life. Audial frames steer us in distinct directions, they can mute the cries of the wounded in war, or amplify the sounds of joy of soldiers shooting in the air. To bring the audial and the visual analytically and empirically together, the article therefore proposes four key analytical themes: 1) the audial–visual frame, 2) point of view/point of audition, 3) modes of audio-visual synchronization and 4) aesthetics moods. These are applied to a study of ‘war music videos’ in Iraq and Syria made and circulated by Shi'a militias currently fighting there. Such war music videos, it is suggested, are not just artefacts of popular culture, but have become integral parts of how warfare is practiced today, and one that is shared by soldiers in the US and Europe. War music videos are performing war, just as they shape how war is known by spectators and participants alike.




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Violence, visuality and world politics

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

In the May 2020 issue of International Affairs, we explore the many uses of images in the conduct of global politics.

Helen Berents and Constance Duncombe

This special section brings together diverse spaces and modes of visuality through specific, sustained attention to the various types of violence depicted. In doing so, these articles draw out a concern for the visual constitution of violence in global politics, and its emotional and political consequences. Individually and collectively, the contributions highlight the ways in which policy-makers and researchers are daily confronted by violent images that influence how complex political problems are seen and consequently understood. Paying attention to the power of the visuality of violence is necessary to understand how certain kinds of policy responses to direct and indirect violence unfold.




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Virtual Roundtable: Russia in Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Invitation Only Research Event

1 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:30pm

Event participants

Mathieu Boulegue, Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Nikolai Petrov, Senior Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Ekaterina Schulmann, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Chair: James Nixey, Programme Director, Russia and Eurasia, Chatham House

Politically speaking, Russia has been isolating itself from the West for some years now, feeding its citizens a ‘besieged fortress’ mentality. Its uniqueness, however, means its approach to - and outcome from - the COVID-19 pandemic will also be distinctive. 

This webinar will explore how Russia is adapting its internal politics and its international relations to the ‘new normal’ of today. 

Department/project

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Virtual Roundtable: Russia in MENA

Invitation Only Research Event

3 April 2020 - 2:30pm to 3:30pm

Event participants

Nikolay Kozhanov, Research Associate Professor, Gulf Studies Center,  Qatar University, Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Tim Eaton, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Sanam Vakil, Senior Research Fellow, Project Director, Future Dynamics of the Gulf, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Russia’s Middle East policy is driven by a complex mixture of traditional factors (such as the ongoing confrontation with the West) and new trends. The Kremlin is keen to maintain its position as an influential external broker. However, it is not confident Russia would be able to respond effectively if forced into a reactive mode by other regional players. The Kremlin therefore seeks to retain initiative and shape the agenda according to its needs and resources. This makes prediction of Moscow’s next moves in the region a challenging, but not impossible, task.

Nikolay Kozhanov will offer remarks on the changes that have taken place in Russia’s strategy since the publication of his research paper Russian Policy Across the Middle East: Motivations and Methods (2018), while Tim Eaton will explore Russia's increasing engagement in the Libyan conflict, and its now central role in Libya's diplomacy.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Virtual Roundtable: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Wider FSU Region

Invitation Only Research Event

21 April 2020 - 10:00am to 11:30am

Event participants

Christopher Davis, Professorial Fellow, Institute of Population Ageing, University of Oxford
Nino Evgenidze, Executive Director, EPRC
Katya Gorchinskaya, Journalist, former CEO of Hromadske.ua
Konstantin Sokulskiy, Head of Governance, UNDP, Kazakhstan
Chair: James Nixey, Programme Director, Russia and Eurasia, Chatham House

COVID-19 has put a serious strain on healthcare and economic systems around the world. This virtual roundtable will explore its impact on Russia, Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan. Through a comparative examination of government and society responses, this event will show how COVID-19 has laid bare the region’s broader social, economic and political challenges.

Department/project

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Virtual Roundtable: Re-integration or Dis-integration: What Does the Future Hold for Occupied Donbas?

Invitation Only Research Event

28 April 2020 - 4:00pm to 5:30pm

Event participants

Paul D’anieri, Professor of Public Policy and Political Science, University of California, Riverside
Vlad Mykhnenko, Associate Professor of Sustainable Urban Development, St Peter’s College, University of Oxford
Chair: Orysia Lutsevych, Research Fellow and Manager, Ukraine Forum, Chatham House

The armed conflict in Donbas has now entered its seventh year. President Zelenskyy, who came to power in May 2019, promised to end the war with Russia and bring peace to Ukraine.

Since assuming office, Zelenskyy has managed to revive the Normandy Format talks, complete military disengagement at three points along the line of contact and negotiate the release of over a hundred Ukrainians held as prisoners of war in Russia. However, ceasefire violations continue to occur frequently.

Looking at the origins of the armed conflict in Donbas and the region’s economic role in Ukraine’s economy, this event discusses the prospects for conflict resolution. Do the recent events signify an opportunity for peace? Does Zelenskyy have a viable plan for re-integrating Donbas or will the region be cut off from mainland Ukraine for the foreseeable future?

The speakers assess the strategy and track record of the Ukrainian government and its Western allies in bringing parts of the occupied Donbas under Kyiv’s control. They also review possible policy implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the conflict.

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Virtual Roundtable: Land Reform in Ukraine: Is Zelenskyy's Government Getting it Right?

Invitation Only Research Event

14 May 2020 - 12:00pm to 1:30pm
Add to Calendar
Ihor Petrashko, Minister of Economic Development and Trade, Ukraine
Andriy Dykun, Chair, Ukrainian Agricultural Council
Vadim Tolpeco, Ukrlandfarming Plc
Chair: Orysia Lutsevych, Research Fellow and Manager, Ukraine Forum, Chatham House
Ukraine is known as the ‘breadbasket of Europe’ thanks to its grain exports. On 31 March 2020, the Ukrainian parliament passed a landmark law ending a 19-year ban on the sale of privately owned agricultural land. Due to come into force in July 2021, the law applies to 41.5 million hectares of farmland and economists predict substantial economic gains from this liberalization.
 
This event will discuss the impact of the law on Ukraine’s agricultural sector and food security. How can the government best implement this reform and ensure that small and medium-sized agricultural companies increase their productivity? What does this change mean for Ukraine’s capacity to export grain? Can the country’s food supply withstand crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic? What role could foreign direct investors play in boosting production?
 
This event will be held on the record.

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 64459: A SAS Data Integration Studio job receives an error that states "The name '; index_name '; has the wrong number of qualifiers"

An error occurs because of an incorrectly generated CREATE INDEX clause in an SQL query that is sent to DB2 when the DB2 schema value is SESSION . The error message says "The name '; index_name '; has the wrong number of qualifie




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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 65909: SAS Visual Analytics Designer 7.5 responds slowly when you edit large or complex reports

If your SAS Visual Analytics report contains many sections and objects, you might encounter performance problems when you are editing the report.   A hot fix is planned for this issue.




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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 65893: Custom sorts are sorted incorrectly when they are used in a hierarchy in SAS Visual Analytics Designer

A custom sort might be sorted incorrectly when the data item is used in a custom category, which is then used in a hierarchy. The issue can occur in the following scenario:




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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 65869: SAS Visual Data Builder does not enable you to schedule with multiple time-event triggers

SAS Visual Data Builder might not enable you to create multiple time-event triggers. The + button to add another trigger is not available to select, as shown in the following display: imgalt="" src="{fusion_658




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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 65868: Saving a report distribution in SAS Visual Analytics Designer fails with "The name is invalid"

When you attempt to save a report distribution in SAS Visual Analytics Designer, you might see the error shown in the following display:  imgalt="" src="{fusion_65868_1_distributionerror.png}" />



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Acute Hyperglycemia Increases Brain Pregenual Anterior Cingulate Cortex Glutamate Concentrations in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

The brain mechanisms underlying the association of hyperglycemia with depressive symptoms are unknown. We hypothesized that disrupted glutamate metabolism in pregenual anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in type 1 diabetes (T1D) without depression affects emotional processing. Using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), we measured glutamate concentrations in ACC and occipital cortex (OCC) in 13 T1D without major depression (HbA1c=7.1±0.7% [54±7mmol/mol]) and 11 healthy non-diabetic controls (HbA1c=5.5±0.2% [37±3mmol/mol]) during fasting euglycemia (EU) followed by a 60-minute +5.5mmol/l hyperglycemic clamp (HG). Intrinsic neuronal activity was assessed using resting-state blood oxygen level dependent functional MRI to measure the fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations in slow-band 4 (fALFF4). Emotional processing and depressive symptoms were assessed using emotional tasks (Emotional-Stroop, Self-Referent-Encoding-Task SRET) and clinical ratings (HAM-D, SCL-90-R), respectively. During HG, ACC glutamate increased (1.2mmol/kg, +10%, p=0.014) while ACC fALFF4 was unchanged (-0.007, -2%, p=0.449) in T1D; in contrast, glutamate was unchanged (-0.2mmol/kg, -2%, p=0.578) while fALFF4 decreased (-0.05, -13%, p=0.002) in controls. OCC glutamate and fALFF4 were unchanged in both groups. T1D had longer SRET negative-word response-times (p=0.017) and higher depression-rating scores (HAM-D p=0.020; SCL-90-R-depression p=0.008). Higher glutamate change tended to associate with longer Emotional-Stroop response-times in T1D only. Brain glutamate must be tightly controlled during hyperglycemia due to the risk for neurotoxicity with excessive levels. Results suggest that ACC glutamate control mechanisms are disrupted in T1D, which affects glutamatergic neurotransmission related to emotional or cognitive processing. Increased prefrontal glutamate during acute hyperglycemic episodes could explain our previous findings of associations between chronic hyperglycemia, cortical thinning and depressive symptoms in T1D.




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The Metabolic Responses to 24-h Fasting and Mild Cold Exposure in Overweight Individuals are Correlated and Accompanied by Changes in FGF21 Concentration

A greater decrease in 24-h energy expenditure (24EE) during 24h fasting defines a thriftier metabolic phenotype prone to weight gain during overfeeding and resistant to weight loss during caloric restriction. As the thermogenic response to mild cold exposure (COLD) may similarly characterize this human phenotype identified by acute fasting conditions, we analyzed changes in 24EE and sleeping metabolic rate (SLEEP) in a whole-room indirect calorimeter during 24h fasting at thermoneutrality (24°C) and during energy balance both at thermoneutrality (24°C) and mild cold (19°C) in 20 healthy volunteers (80% male, age: 36.6±11.4y, percentage body fat: 34.8±10.5%). Greater decrease in 24EE during fasting (thriftier phenotype) was associated with less increase in 24EE during COLD, i.e. less cold-induced thermogenesis. Greater decreases in plasma fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) after 24h fasting and after COLD were highly correlated and associated with greater decreases in SLEEP in both conditions. We conclude that the metabolic responses to short-term fasting and COLD are associated and mediated by the liver-derived hormone FGF21. Thus, the 24EE response to COLD further identifies the thrifty versus spendthrift phenotype, providing an additional setting to investigate the physiological mechanisms underlying the human metabolic phenotype and characterizing the individual susceptibility to weight change.




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Effects of deficiency in the RLBP1-encoded visual cycle protein CRALBP on visual dysfunction in humans and mice [Cell Biology]

Mutations in retinaldehyde-binding protein 1 (RLBP1), encoding the visual cycle protein cellular retinaldehyde-binding protein (CRALBP), cause an autosomal recessive form of retinal degeneration. By binding to 11-cis-retinoid, CRALBP augments the isomerase activity of retinoid isomerohydrolase RPE65 (RPE65) and facilitates 11-cis-retinol oxidation to 11-cis-retinal. CRALBP also maintains the 11-cis configuration and protects against unwanted retinaldehyde activity. Studying a sibling pair that is compound heterozygous for mutations in RLBP1/CRALBP, here we expand the phenotype of affected individuals, elucidate a previously unreported phenotype in RLBP1/CRALBP carriers, and demonstrate consistencies between the affected individuals and Rlbp1/Cralbp−/− mice. In the RLBP1/CRALBP-affected individuals, nonrecordable rod-specific electroretinogram traces were recovered after prolonged dark adaptation. In ultrawide-field fundus images, we observed radially arranged puncta typical of RLBP1/CRALBP-associated disease. Spectral domain-optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) revealed hyperreflective aberrations within photoreceptor-associated bands. In short-wavelength fundus autofluorescence (SW-AF) images, speckled hyperautofluorescence and mottling indicated macular involvement. In both the affected individuals and their asymptomatic carrier parents, reduced SW-AF intensities, measured as quantitative fundus autofluorescence (qAF), indicated chronic impairment in 11-cis-retinal availability and provided information on mutation severity. Hypertransmission of the SD-OCT signal into the choroid together with decreased near-infrared autofluorescence (NIR-AF) provided evidence for retinal pigment epithelial cell (RPE) involvement. In Rlbp1/Cralbp−/− mice, reduced 11-cis-retinal levels, qAF and NIR-AF intensities, and photoreceptor loss were consistent with the clinical presentation of the affected siblings. These findings indicate that RLBP1 mutations are associated with progressive disease involving RPE atrophy and photoreceptor cell degeneration. In asymptomatic carriers, qAF disclosed previously undetected visual cycle deficiency.




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Correction: A dual druggable genome-wide siRNA and compound library screening approach identifies modulators of parkin recruitment to mitochondria. [Additions and Corrections]

VOLUME 295 (2020) PAGES 3285–3300An incorrect graph was used in Fig. 5C. This error has now been corrected. Additionally, some of the statistics reported in the legend and text referring to Fig. 5C were incorrect. The F statistics for Fig. 5C should state Fken(3,16) = 7.454, p < 0.01; FCCCP(1,16) = 102.9, p < 0.0001; Finteraction(3,16) = 7.480, p < 0.01. This correction does not affect the results or conclusions of this work.jbc;295/17/5835/F5F1F5Figure 5C.




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Zaidi: 'Mutual interest' between Giants, Harper

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi would prefer to stay mum when it comes to his forays into the free-agent market, but he realized there was no use in attempting to obscure the club's meeting with superstar Bryce Harper in Las Vegas earlier this week.




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First case of Zika virus spread through sexual contact is detected in UK




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Chemoprevention of colorectal cancer in individuals with previous colorectal neoplasia: systematic review and network meta-analysis




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Human Rights Priorities: An Agenda for Equality and Social Justice

Members Event

19 November 2019 - 6:00pm to 7:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Michelle Bachelet, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights

Chair: Ruma Mandal, Head, International Law Programme, Chatham House

Following just over one year in office, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, outlines her ongoing priorities at a tumultuous time for fundamental rights protections worldwide.

She discusses the rights implications of climate change, gender inequality including the advancement of sexual and reproductive rights, the protection of vulnerable groups and the need to work closely with states, civil society and business to protect and advance human rights.

Department/project

Members Events Team




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Courageously critiquing sexual violence: responding to the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize

6 November 2019 , Volume 95, Number 6

Maria Stern

Marysia Zalewski's work has taught us, as a collective of feminist scholars, to be cautious of neat instruction manuals and coherently set out plans of action; of claims to sure knowledge about danger, violence, and its subjects and remedies; of the fanfare of grand arrivals; and of the quieter staking of ground that has been seemingly won. Zalewski has persistently reminded us in different ways that we/she does ‘not even know what gender is or does’. Far from a flippant response to the emptiness of gender mainstreaming policies, this seemingly simple statement instead serves as a glaring post-it note on the margins of our texts about International Relations theory, feminism, sex/gender and violence— both those that we read, as well as those that we write. However, this lesson is often forgotten in our rush to understand and establish gendered harms as valid and important, and to seek their redress. Gleaning insights from Zalewski's work, this article critically considers possible responses to the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize. Its aim is not to delve into a discussion of the politics or effects of the Peace Prize as such, but to instead use the 2018 Peace Prize as a marker—a moment to consider the possibility for critique in relation to sexual violence.




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'The Truth is, Chile is Unequal': What's Behind Chile's Protests

18 December 2019

Dr Christopher Sabatini

Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, US and the Americas Programme

Lyndsey Jefferson

Digital Editor, Communications and Publishing Department
As part of a series on global protests, Dr Christopher Sabatini tells Lyndsey Jefferson why Chileans are taking to the streets.

GettyImages-1177498531.jpg

A demonstrator waves a Chilean flag during a protest in Santiago on 21 October 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Why are these protests happening now?

The truth is, Chile is unequal, even though it actually reduced poverty from 1989, the time of the democratic transition, until today, from 40% to 16%.

There are a number of reasons for the protests. One is the most proximate cause, which is the increase in the subway fares, but that really doesn’t explain the underlying tensions.

One of those tensions is despite reductions in poverty, social mobility remains a large problem in Chile. It remains a very elitist country with limited social mobility. So, poverty may be reduced, but the likelihood that someone in the working middle class would reach the upper middle class has always been a stretch.

The second issue is a lack of political change. The last four presidents were the same two people.

Chile’s been governed, with the exception of Piñera, basically by the same political coalition, La Concertación, which is a combination of the Christian Democratic and Socialist parties. Piñera came from the right, an outside party, but even he has remained. There has been no renewal of the political leadership which again reinforces that lack of social mobility. 

Do the protesters have any other demands or grievances? 

The demands are amorphous and that’s part of the issue – they’re going to be difficult to meet. People are expressing a genuine desire for change but what would that change mean?

Chileans don’t necessarily want to change the economic model; they simply want more mobility. That’s difficult to do and these are untested demands. 

Chileans also want political reform. What Piñera offered is to rewrite the constitution, which was created under military government in 1980. Other than some changes here and there in terms of the electoral system and reduction of military power, it has pretty much remained intact.

Will constitutional change really address these demands? It’s simply a document that may create the rules for how power is allocated and conducted, but it’s not going to dramatically remake Chilean society.

You mentioned inequality as a key driver of the protests. Can you expand a bit more on the current economic situation of ordinary Chileans?

Chile is going to grow at only around 2-3%, but it was growing at around 4-5% earlier. A lot of those funds were ploughed into social programmes that have since been reduced. 

Chile’s economy really boomed in the early 2000s because of Chinese demands of Chilean imports. But as with any sort of commodities-based economy, the jobs it provides tend to be lower wage.

As a result, despite the fact that Chile tried to diversify its economy by investing in entrepreneurship and innovation, it hasn’t grown in a way that provides jobs that many associate with upward mobility. As Chile's economy cooled, its ability to lift people out of poverty lagged as well.

Demonstrators hold placards depicting eyes – in reference to police pellets hitting demonstrators' eyes – during a protest in Santiago on 10 December 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Two major issues for the protesters are education and pensions – can you explain why this is?

These are two issues of the economic and social model that was held up at one time as being a model for the region, the neoliberal models that are really coming under question and are in some ways at the heart of this.

One is the privatized pension system which is failing to produce the returns that retirees need to survive. The second is the education system. Chile created a voucher system where parents can shop around and send their kids to the best schools. The idea was to create competition among schools to improve.

The problem was like any market, it created a certain amount of inequality among schools. There was a problem of some schools underperforming and being relegated poorer performing students, or students being forced to go to those schools because the more successful schools were already spoken for. 

At the end of October, the government announced a series of social reforms. Will this be enough to satisfy the protesters’ demands?

Social reforms may address some of the issues of insufficient pensions or lack of quality education, but it will take a while for them to have an effect.

The second thing is, social reforms don’t address the issues of power. At the heart of this is this idea of closed economic, political and social power. That comes about through economic growth and how you break up concentrations of wealth. Social reforms aren’t going to do that, although they’ll help on the margins. 

We’re seeing horrific scenes of police violence against protesters and dozens of people have died. Has this deterred the protesters in any way? 

No, in many ways it has sort of inspired them. It has, I think, sustained the protests.

We’re not talking massive repression and tanks rolling in like Tiananmen Square. We’re talking about tear gas, rubber bullets, some injuries and deaths, and even credible reports of torture.

It’s funny you should mention this – a class I’m teaching today is about social media and protests. One of the central arguments is that successful social protests need a martyr; they need a rallying cry.

The deaths and the repression sort of help sustain that, but moreover, social media helps communicate what’s happening through videos and pictures. It really helps maintain this sense of righteousness, disdain for the government, and this idea of the need to demand change.

Where do you see this going next?

I don’t think we know. In the 60s and 70s, the political scientist Samuel Huntington argued in Political Order in Changing Societies that as economies grow, political institutions often strain to contain and channel demands. I think we’re seeing this now.

This social ferment over political, economic and social demands is uncharted water. I don’t know where this will go, but I think we’ll see a change in the constitution. We’ve already seen a fragmenting of the party system, which I think will continue. Hopefully, that will lead to new leadership that can help reflect a change in Chile itself. 




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Virtual Roundtable: Tectonic Plates of 2020 – Developments in the US Presidential Race

Invitation Only Research Event

18 March 2020 - 1:00pm to 1:45pm

Event participants

John Zogby, Founder and Senior Partner, John Zogby Strategies
Chair: Dr Lindsay Newman, Senior Research Fellow, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House

This event is part of the Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US, Americas and the State of the World and will take place virtually only. Participants should not come to Chatham House for these events.

US and Americas Programme




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Virtual Roundtable: US and European Responses to Coronavirus

Invitation Only Research Event

20 March 2020 - 1:00pm to 1:45pm

Event participants

Anne Applebaum, Staff Writer, The Atlantic; Pulitzer-Prize Winning Historian
Amy Pope, Partner, Schillings; Deputy Homeland Security Advisor, US National Security Council, 2015 - 17
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

This event is part of the Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US, Americas and the State of the World and will take place virtually only.  Participants should not come to Chatham House for these events.

Department/project

US and Americas Programme