Research Event

Event participants

Professor Stig Jarle Hansen, Professor, Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Author, Horn, Sahel and Rift: Fault-lines of the African Jihad
Bulama Bukarti, PhD Candidate, SOAS, University of London; Analyst, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Chair: Aoife McCullough, PhD Candidate, LSE

Barbara H. Braffett
May 1, 2020; 69:1000-1010
Complications

Cheng Hu
Jan 1, 2018; 67:3-11
Perspectives in Diabetes

This report analyzes the exploitation of migrants in three spheres: the domestic care sector, the labor market, and the sex industry. It details several obstacles governments face in their efforts to weaken the "bad actors" that profit from exploitation, and shows how one of the biggest challenges facing law enforcement is that serious criminals and lawbreakers often operate on the edge of legality and exploit legal routes wherever possible.

Apr 1, 2018; 36:202-202
Patient Education

W B Kannel
Mar 1, 1979; 2:120-126
Proceedings of the Kroc Foundation International Conference on Epidemiology of Diabetes and its Macrovascular Complications

Jordi Salas-Salvadó
May 1, 2019; 42:777-788
Continuing Evolution of Nutritional Therapy for Diabetes

Dror Dicker
May 1, 2011; 34:S276-S278
Diabetes Treatments

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of metabolic and lifestyle factors with possible diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN) and neuropathic pain in patients with early type 2 diabetes.

This Transatlantic Council on Migration Statement assesses the continuum of policies needed to disrupt illegal migration-related activities and addresses the conditions that make them possible. It examines the role of migration "bad actors"—human traffickers and unscrupulous employers, among them—who operate and profit in this environment, and considers how governments can deploy resources to discourage their actions.

OBJECTIVE

The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and its observational follow-up Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) demonstrated the dominant role of glycemia, second only to age, as a risk factor for a first cardiovascular event in type 1 diabetes (T1D). We now investigate the association between established risk factors and the total cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden, including subsequent (i.e., recurrent) events.

Humphries, Barry, 1934-

Rockville, Maryland : National Institute on Drug Abuse, 1988.

We analyze risk factors correlated with the initial transmission growth rate of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of cases follows an early exponential expansion; we chose as a starting point in each country the first day with 30 cases and used 12 days. We looked for linear correlations of the exponents with other variables, using 126 countries. We find a positive correlation with high C.L. with the following variables, with respective $p$-value: low Temperature ($4cdot10^{-7}$), high ratio of old vs.~working-age people ($3cdot10^{-6}$), life expectancy ($8cdot10^{-6}$), number of international tourists ($1cdot10^{-5}$), earlier epidemic starting date ($2cdot10^{-5}$), high level of contact in greeting habits ($6 cdot 10^{-5}$), lung cancer ($6 cdot 10^{-5}$), obesity in males ($1 cdot 10^{-4}$), urbanization ($2cdot10^{-4}$), cancer prevalence ($3 cdot 10^{-4}$), alcohol consumption ($0.0019$), daily smoking prevalence ($0.0036$), UV index ($0.004$, smaller sample, 73 countries), low Vitamin D levels ($p$-value $0.002-0.006$, smaller sample, $sim 50$ countries). There is highly significant correlation also with blood type: positive correlation with RH- ($2cdot10^{-5}$) and A+ ($2cdot10^{-3}$), negative correlation with B+ ($2cdot10^{-4}$). We also find positive correlation with moderate C.L. ($p$-value of $0.02sim0.03$) with: CO$_2$ emissions, type-1 diabetes, low vaccination coverage for Tuberculosis (BCG). Several such variables are correlated with each other and so they likely have common interpretations. We also analyzed the possible existence of a bias: countries with low GDP-per capita, typically located in warm regions, might have less intense testing and we discuss correlation with the above variables.

Kyoungjae Lee, Jaeyong Lee, Lizhen Lin.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 6, 3413--3437.

Abstract:
In this paper we study the high-dimensional sparse directed acyclic graph (DAG) models under the empirical sparse Cholesky prior. Among our results, strong model selection consistency or graph selection consistency is obtained under more general conditions than those in the existing literature. Compared to Cao, Khare and Ghosh [ Ann. Statist. (2019) 47 319–348], the required conditions are weakened in terms of the dimensionality, sparsity and lower bound of the nonzero elements in the Cholesky factor. Furthermore, our result does not require the irrepresentable condition, which is necessary for Lasso-type methods. We also derive the posterior convergence rates for precision matrices and Cholesky factors with respect to various matrix norms. The obtained posterior convergence rates are the fastest among those of the existing Bayesian approaches. In particular, we prove that our posterior convergence rates for Cholesky factors are the minimax or at least nearly minimax depending on the relative size of true sparseness for the entire dimension. The simulation study confirms that the proposed method outperforms the competing methods.

Susheela P. Singh, Ana-Maria Staicu, Robert R. Dunn, Noah Fierer, Brian J. Reich.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2341--2362.

Abstract:
The advent of high-throughput sequencing technologies has made data from DNA material readily available, leading to a surge of microbiome-related research establishing links between markers of microbiome health and specific outcomes. However, to harness the power of microbial communities we must understand not only how they affect us, but also how they can be influenced to improve outcomes. This area has been dominated by methods that reduce community composition to summary metrics, which can fail to fully exploit the complexity of community data. Recently, methods have been developed to model the abundance of taxa in a community, but they can be computationally intensive and do not account for spatial effects underlying microbial settlement. These spatial effects are particularly relevant in the microbiome setting because we expect communities that are close together to be more similar than those that are far apart. In this paper, we propose a flexible Bayesian spike-and-slab variable selection model for presence-absence indicators that accounts for spatial dependence and cross-dependence between taxa while reducing dimensionality in both directions. We show by simulation that in the presence of spatial dependence, popular distance-based hypothesis testing methods fail to preserve their advertised size, and the proposed method improves variable selection. Finally, we present an application of our method to an indoor fungal community found within homes across the contiguous United States.

Muteb Alharthi, Theodore Kypraios, Philip D. O’Neill.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 927--956.

Abstract:
We consider the problem of model choice for stochastic epidemic models given partial observation of a disease outbreak through time. Our main focus is on the use of Bayes factors. Although Bayes factors have appeared in the epidemic modelling literature before, they can be hard to compute and little attention has been given to fundamental questions concerning their utility. In this paper we derive analytic expressions for Bayes factors given complete observation through time, which suggest practical guidelines for model choice problems. We adapt the power posterior method for computing Bayes factors so as to account for missing data and apply this approach to partially observed epidemics. For comparison, we also explore the use of a deviance information criterion for missing data scenarios. The methods are illustrated via examples involving both simulated and real data.

The digital revolution has changed the way we work, access information and connect with each other. It offers opportunities to those who can use the new technologies, but also presents new challenges for those who are left behind. Often referred to collectively as Information and Communications Technologies or ICTs, these technologies are any method of electronically sharing or storing data: telephones, [...]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have a higher prevalence of epilepsy compared with general populations. In this pilot study, we prospectively identified baseline risk factors for the development of seizures in individuals with ASD and also identified characteristics sensitive to seizure onset up to 6 years after enrollment in the Autism Speaks Autism Treatment Network.

Cardiovascular risk factors predict the development of premature atherosclerosis. As the number of risk factors increases, so does the extent of these lesions. Assessment of cardiovascular risk factors is an accepted practice in adults but is not used in pediatrics.

In this study, the authors discuss how the presence of ≥2 cardiovascular risk factors is associated with vascular changes in adolescents. The findings were compared with the Patholobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth risk score to demonstrate that a simple method of clustering is a reliable tool to use in clinical practice. (Read the full article)

Gallbladder disease in children is an evolving entity and studies suggest an increasing frequency of symptomatic pediatric gallbladder disease and resultant cholecystectomies.

Hispanic ethnicity and obesity are epidemiologically significant risk factors for symptomatic gallbladder disease in the pediatric population. (Read the full article)

Rural Alaska children have high rates of hospitalization with lower respiratory tract infections from a variety of pathogens. Past studies of risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus infection associated medically high-risk status, household crowding, and infant feeding practices with hospitalization.

This study reveals the importance of medically high-risk status and infant feeding practices as important factors in respiratory hospitalization. In addition, we identified woodstove use and the absence of 2 or more sinks in household as risk factors for hospitalization. (Read the full article)

Valid parental permission requires that the decision be both informed and voluntary. Previous research has focused on the informational components of decision-making (eg, disclosure and understanding), with little empirical attention to the voluntariness of decisions.

We address this gap by examining the voluntariness of parents making research or treatment decisions in pediatric oncology. We identify demographic and contextual correlates of voluntariness and highlight the clinical implications of the findings for physicians and investigators. (Read the full article)

Overweight and obese children have a higher prevalence of several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. There is growing evidence demonstrating that CVD risk factors present during childhood persist into adulthood.

US adolescents had no significant change in prehypertension/hypertension and borderline-high/ high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol prevalence from 1999–2000 to 2007–2008; however, prediabetes/diabetes increased by 14%. (Read the full article)

Male circumcision reduces risk of HIV acquisition in men by 60% and is associated with other health benefits. Compared with adult circumcision, infant male circumcision is safer, less expensive, and represents a cost-saving intervention for HIV prevention in many settings.

IMC is little known in East Africa and is not routinely practiced. This is the first study to assess acceptability and uptake of IMC in East Africa among parents who were actually offered the procedure. (Read the full article)

Celiac disease is an immunologic disorder with autoimmune features. Sweden experienced an epidemic of celiac disease in infants (1984–1996). Early vaccinations might influence the risk for autoimmune diseases, and could potentially have contributed to celiac disease risk and the epidemic.

Early vaccinations within the national Swedish program are not risk factors for celiac disease, nor do changes over time contribute to explaining the Swedish epidemic. A protective effect by vaccination against tuberculosis (bacillus Calmette-Guérin) is suggested. (Read the full article)

Because most childhood tuberculosis cases are sputum smear-negative, diagnosis relies largely upon clinical presentation, tuberculin skin testing, and chest radiograph. Diagnostic limitations contribute to treatment delays and high mortality. However, childhood tuberculosis (TB) mortality risk factors are not well documented.

This study demonstrates that false-negative TST is common in children with active TB and is associated with increased risk of death. A negative TST should not delay anti-TB therapy. Improved diagnostic modalities are urgently needed in resource-limited settings. (Read the full article)

Understanding human disease genomics requires large population-based studies. There is lack of standardization, as well as social and ethical concerns surrounding the consent process for pediatric participation in a biorepository.

The study identifies specific barriers to pediatric participation in biorepositories relative to adults, and proposes strategies to improve ethical and responsible participation of pediatric-aged patients in large-scale genomics and biorepository-driven research without significantly increasing research burden for affected families. (Read the full article)

Prenatal cocaine exposure is associated with the trajectories of childhood behavior problems. Exposure effects may also be related to maternal use of other substances during pregnancy, and risk factors other than prenatal exposure may augment the detrimental cocaine effects.

The balance between cumulative risk and protective indexes predicts behavior outcomes, independent of prenatal drug exposure. A high protective index even with a high level of risks can mitigate the detrimental effects of drug exposure on behavior problem trajectory. (Read the full article)

National asthma treatment guidelines include the recommendation that all asthma patients receive a written asthma action plan. No previous study has sought to examine the readability, suitability, and content of asthma action plans within a nationally representative sample.

Although variability was found across written asthma action plans, and improvements in readability, suitability, and content are needed, there were also many common elements that would support a move to a single universal standard action plan. (Read the full article)

A reduced nephron number is associated with glomerular hyperfiltration, resulting in renal injury such as hypertension, proteinuria, and chronic kidney disease. Patients with a solitary functioning kidney have an increased risk of dialysis in early adulthood.

This study demonstrates that a subset of children with a solitary functioning kidney progress toward renal injury during childhood. Risk factors for renal injury are ipsilateral anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract and small renal length. (Read the full article)

The presence of elevated cardiometabolic risk factors, such as obesity, high glucose or lipid levels, and smoking, in adolescents has been shown to be associated with earlier onset of chronic conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease.

Obesity, smoking, and elevated glucose increases the risk of dying before the age of 55 years. This is the first study to focus on risk factors and mortality among adolescents and young adults in a nationally representative US sample. (Read the full article)

Although the metabolic syndrome is associated with obesity, not all obese children have insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome, and nonobese children may develop these abnormalities. Associated factors have not been well described.

There was a 6.6% prevalence of nonobese children who were insulin-resistant, associated with a family history of hypertension. There was a 21.3% prevalence of obese who were not insulin-resistant, associated with a low waist circumference. (Read the full article)

Extreme prematurity is a well-established cause of cognitive and motor impairment. There is some evidence that late prematurity and modifiable maternal attributes may negatively influence scholastic achievement, including standardized test performance.

We found that preterm birth significantly increases risk of first-grade failure rate even when the birth is just a few weeks before term gestation. Low maternal education status compounds the effect of prematurity. (Read the full article)

Self-medication with antibiotics available without prescription is among the main causes of antibiotic misuse in the developing world and is associated with antibiotic resistance. Inappropriate antibiotic prescription is common in children. Patient expectations seem to influence physicians’ advice.

This study demonstrates that even in places where antibiotics are unregulated, improving physician prescribing habits could reduce irrational use overall and also future caregiver-driven misuse. Physician training in adequate antibiotic prescription could be a cost-effective intervention in these settings. (Read the full article)

Excessive weight gain over the first 18 months of life may have consequences for later body size. However, the relationship of weight gain in this period to atherogenic risk factors in later childhood is not well characterized.

Early postnatal weight gain from birth to 18 months is independently associated with childhood overweight and obesity, excess central adiposity, and greater arterial wall thickness at age 8 years. (Read the full article)

Patients who are fed via gastrostomy tube represent a heterogeneous, complex group of patients who may be at increased risk for kidney stones. To date, no previous studies have examined risk factors for kidney stone development in this population.

This case-control study of risk factors for urolithiasis in patients fed via gastrostomy suggests that topiramate use, urinary infections, and shorter length of time with a gastrostomy tube (possibly a marker for dehydration) are all associated with stone development. (Read the full article)

Significant variation in the mortality of preterm infants has been observed among NICUs. Factors explaining this variation have been difficult to identify.

Sizable center differences in mortality exist, even among similarly sized NICUs in academic centers. Patient characteristics and center treatment rates explain some of the center effect, especially for the youngest infants, but a significant portion of these differences remains unexplained. (Read the full article)

Several studies have investigated the prevalence of chronic daily headache (CDH) and analyzed the risk factors for its persistence. However, the etiologic factors that lead to new-onset CDH remain unsettled in adolescents.

This study was the first incidence study of CDH conducted in young adolescents. We reported the incidence rates and found that some risk factors for incident chronic migraine and chronic tension-type headache were different. (Read the full article)

Newborns with critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) are at risk for cardiovascular collapse or death if discharged from the birth hospital without a diagnosis. Newborn screening aims to identify CCHD missed in prenatal and postnatal examinations.

Birth hospital nursery level and CCHD type were found to be associated with late CCHD detection. Routine newborn screening could conceivably reduce differences in the frequency of late diagnosis between birth hospital facilities. (Read the full article)

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a known endocrine disruptor found in many products with which children come into contact. Although BPA in adults is associated with obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, little is known about its effects in children.

This study found that higher BPA levels are associated with obesity and abnormal waist circumference–to–height ratio in children. (Read the full article)

Etiology and timing of onset of neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy continue to be controversial. Previous studies suggest antepartum events are the main contributing factors, but have used a broad definition of encephalopathy and included infants with genetic, congenital, and developmental abnormalities.

Our study suggests that when strict criteria defining hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy are applied with supporting neuroimaging evidence of an acute hypoxic-ischemic insult, intrapartum events are the final and necessary pathway leading to this condition. (Read the full article)

Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in young children worldwide. Anemia, widely prevalent globally, is not routinely assessed when treating pneumonia. The effect of anemia and high altitude on outcome of pneumonia is not well described.

Anemia at high altitude increases the risk of poor outcome with severe pneumonia. Children with severe pneumonia at high altitude present with more severe hypoxemia and have a longer time to recovery than children at low altitude. (Read the full article)

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is the most common mental health condition diagnosed in childhood, is highly heritable, and more common in boys. Although studies have identified perinatal risk factors, no one has investigated perinatal risk factors separately in boys and girls.

Contrary to other studies, low birth weight, postterm pregnancy, low Apgar scores, and fetal distress were not risk factors for ADHD irrespective of gender. Early term deliveries increased the risk of ADHD, and oxytocin augmentation in girls may be protective. (Read the full article)

There is a perception that Gram-negative bacilli (GNB) bloodstream infection is increasing in the NICU, and those infections caused by a multidrug-resistant (MDR) strain are a growing threat to hospitalized patients.

Exposure to broad-spectrum antibiotics is the most important risk factor for MDR GNB bacteremia, which is associated with higher mortality. Neonates with risk factors for bacteremia caused by a MDR GNB strain may benefit from empirical antimicrobial therapy with carbapenem. (Read the full article)

Early preventive dental care is cost-effective and can reduce subsequent restorative or emergency visits. Little is known about the factors distinguishing families who receive dental care in early childhood and those who do not.

Our results suggest that among healthy children seen by primary care providers, those most in need of dental care are least likely to receive it. This highlights the importance of promoting early preventive dental care in the primary care setting. (Read the full article)