nc Harvard Kennedy School’s Future of Diplomacy Project Launches Initiative to Modernize U.S. Foreign Service for the 21st Century By www.belfercenter.org Published On :: Apr 1, 2020 Apr 1, 2020The Future of Diplomacy Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center this week launched a new initiative, The American Diplomacy Project: A Foreign Service for the 21st Century. Full Article
nc Vettel not ruling out title chances By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Sun, 24 Oct 2010 10:38:11 GMT Sebastian Vettel remained upbeat about his chances of winning the world championship despite his late retirement in Korea Full Article
nc Ricciardo encouraged by Renault driveability progress By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Fri, 27 Mar 2015 10:57:32 GMT Daniel Ricciardo says Renault has solved many of the driveability issues which hampered Red Bull so drastically in Melbourne Full Article
nc The Dire Consequences of Trump's Suleimani Decision By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 4, 2020 Jan 4, 2020Americans would be wise to brace for war with Iran, writes Susan Rice. "Full-scale conflict is not a certainty, but the probability is higher than at any point in decades. Despite President Trump’s oft-professed desire to avoid war with Iran and withdraw from military entanglements in the Middle East, his decision to order the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s second most important official, as well as Iraqi leaders of an Iranian-backed militia, now locks our two countries in a dangerous escalatory cycle that will likely lead to wider warfare." Full Article
nc The battle of 'resistance' vs 'revolution' in the Middle East By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 15, 2020 Jan 15, 2020The events surrounding the US assassination of Iranian Quds Force leader Major General Qassem Soleimani brought to the surface the two main ideological forces that now battle each other across the Middle East - the anti-imperial "resistance" of Iran and its Arab allies, and the freedom "revolution" of domestic protesters in the same lands. Full Article
nc Armed Rebel Groups Lobby in D.C., Just Like Governments. How Does That Influence U.S. Policy? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Feb 6, 2020 Feb 6, 2020Armed rebel groups push for funding and recognition, and often get it. Full Article
nc What Allies Want: Reconsidering Loyalty, Reliability, and Alliance Interdependence By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 12, 2020 Apr 12, 2020Is indiscriminate loyalty what allies want? The First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954–55) case suggests that allies do not desire U.S. loyalty in all situations. Instead, they want the United States to be a reliable ally, posing no risk of abandonment or entrapment. Full Article
nc The Dire Consequences of Trump's Suleimani Decision By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 4, 2020 Jan 4, 2020Americans would be wise to brace for war with Iran, writes Susan Rice. "Full-scale conflict is not a certainty, but the probability is higher than at any point in decades. Despite President Trump’s oft-professed desire to avoid war with Iran and withdraw from military entanglements in the Middle East, his decision to order the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s second most important official, as well as Iraqi leaders of an Iranian-backed militia, now locks our two countries in a dangerous escalatory cycle that will likely lead to wider warfare." Full Article
nc The battle of 'resistance' vs 'revolution' in the Middle East By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 15, 2020 Jan 15, 2020The events surrounding the US assassination of Iranian Quds Force leader Major General Qassem Soleimani brought to the surface the two main ideological forces that now battle each other across the Middle East - the anti-imperial "resistance" of Iran and its Arab allies, and the freedom "revolution" of domestic protesters in the same lands. Full Article
nc Armed Rebel Groups Lobby in D.C., Just Like Governments. How Does That Influence U.S. Policy? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Feb 6, 2020 Feb 6, 2020Armed rebel groups push for funding and recognition, and often get it. Full Article
nc What Allies Want: Reconsidering Loyalty, Reliability, and Alliance Interdependence By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 12, 2020 Apr 12, 2020Is indiscriminate loyalty what allies want? The First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954–55) case suggests that allies do not desire U.S. loyalty in all situations. Instead, they want the United States to be a reliable ally, posing no risk of abandonment or entrapment. Full Article
nc To Pressure Iran, Pompeo Turns to the Deal Trump Renounced By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 26, 2020 Apr 26, 2020The secretary of state is preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the Obama-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the accord. Full Article
nc As conflict intensifies in Nigeria’s North East, so too does a reliance on troubled militias By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 13:58:17 +0000 Since 2009, Boko Haram has caused devastating insecurity, impoverishment, displacement, and other suffering in Nigeria’s poor and arid North East region. Although the Nigerian government and military mobilized against the group between 2015 and 2018, intense insecurity and violence not only persist, but have actually increased since 2018. In the past two years, the Nigerian… Full Article
nc How the AfCFTA will improve access to ‘essential products’ and bolster Africa’s resilience to respond to future pandemics By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 22:10:14 +0000 Africa’s extreme vulnerability to the disruption of international supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need to reduce the continent’s dependence on non-African trading partners and unlock Africa’s business potential. While African countries are right to focus their energy on managing the immediate health crisis, they must not lose sight of finalizing the Africa… Full Article
nc How Clean is the U.S. Steel Industry? An International Benchmarking of Energy and CO2 Intensities By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Dec 10, 2019 Dec 10, 2019In this report, the authors conduct a benchmarking analysis for energy and CO2 emissions intensity of the steel industry among the largest steel-producing countries. Full Article
nc Geopolitical and Market Implications of Renewable Hydrogen: New Dependencies in a Low-Carbon Energy World By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mar 4, 2020 Mar 4, 2020To accelerate the global transition to a low-carbon economy, all energy systems and sectors must be actively decarbonized. While hydrogen has been a staple in the energy and chemical industries for decades, renewable hydrogen is drawing increased attention today as a versatile and sustainable energy carrier with the potential to play an important piece in the carbon-free energy puzzle. Countries around the world are piloting new projects and policies, yet adopting hydrogen at scale will require innovating along the value chains; scaling technologies while significantly reducing costs; deploying enabling infrastructure; and defining appropriate national and international policies and market structures. What are the general principles of how renewable hydrogen may reshape the structure of global energy markets? What are the likely geopolitical consequences such changes would cause? A deeper understanding of these nascent dynamics will allow policy makers and corporate investors to better navigate the challenges and maximize the opportunities that decarbonization will bring, without falling into the inefficient behaviors of the past. Full Article
nc Building on the Success of the Earned Income Tax Credit By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 19 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400 The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) provides a refundable tax credit to lower-income working families. In 2011, the EITC reached 27.9 million tax filers at a total cost of $62.9 billion. Almost 20 percent of tax filers receive the EITC, and the average credit amount is $2,254 (IRS 2013). After expansions to the EITC in the late 1980s through the late 1990s—under Democrat and Republican administrations—the EITC now occupies a central place in the U.S. safety net. Based on the Census Bureau’s 2012 Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), the EITC keeps 6.5 million people, including 3.3 million children, out of poverty (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities [CBPP] 2014a). No other tax or transfer program prevents more children from living a life of poverty, and only Social Security keeps more people above poverty. Since the EITC is only eligible to tax filers who work, the credit’s impact on poverty takes place through encouraging employment by ensuring greater pay after taxes. The empirical research shows that the tax credit translates into sizable and robust increases in employment (Eissa and Liebman 1996; Meyer and Rosenbaum 2000, 2001). Thus, the credit reduces poverty through two channels: the actual credit, and increases in family earnings. This dual feature gives the EITC a unique place in the U.S. safety net; in contrast, many other programs redistribute income while, at least to some degree, discouraging work. Importantly, transferring income while encouraging work makes the EITC an efficient and cost-effective policy for increasing the after-tax income of low-earning Americans. Yet a program of this size and impact could be more equitable in its reach. Under the current design of the EITC, childless earners and families with only one child, for instance, receive disproportionately lower refunds. In 2014, families with two children (three or more children) are eligible for a maximum credit of $5,460 ($6,143) compared to $3,305 for families with one child. Married couples, despite their larger family sizes, receive only modestly more-generous EITC benefits compared to single filers. Childless earners benefit little from the EITC, and have a maximum credit of only $496—less than 10 percent of the two-child credit. Prominent proposals seek to mitigate these inequalities. President Obama’s fiscal year 2015 budget includes an expansion of the childless EITC, a concept outlined by John Karl Scholz in 2007 in a proposal for The Hamilton Project. Notably, MDRC is currently evaluating Paycheck Plus, a pilot program for an expanded EITC for workers without dependent children, for the New York City Center for Economic Opportunity (MDRC 2014). The recent Hamilton Project proposal for a secondary-earner tax credit addresses the so-called EITC penalty for married couples (Kearney and Turner 2013). And the more generous EITC credit for three or more children was recently enacted as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, and is currently scheduled to sunset in 2017. Considering this broad set of EITC reforms, and recognizing the demonstrated effectiveness of the program as an antipoverty program with numerous benefits, this policy memo proposes an expansion for the largest group of EITC recipients: families with one child. In particular, I propose to expand the one-child schedule to be on par with the two-child schedule, in equivalence scale-adjusted terms. An equivalence scale captures the cost of living for a household of a given size (and demographic composition) relative to the cost of living for a reference household of a single adult, and is a standard component in defining poverty thresholds. The proposal expands the maximum credit for one-child families to $4,641, from $3,305 under current law, an increase of about 40 percent. The expansion will lead to a roughly $1,000 increase in after-tax income for taxpayers in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution receiving the higher credit. As this paper outlines, the expansion is justified on equity and efficiency grounds. This expansion is anchored in the equity principle in that the generosity of the credit should be proportional to the needs of families of differing sizes; I use the equivalence scale implicit in the poverty thresholds of the Census SPM as a guide for household needs. This proposal is also supported by efficiency principles given the EITC’s demonstrated success at raising labor supply among single mothers. The target population for the proposal is low-income working families with children. Implementing this proposal requires legislative action by the federal government; it is important to note that altering the EITC schedule requires a simple amendment to the tax code, and not a massive overhaul of our nation’s tax system. The revenue cost of the proposal derives from additional federal costs of the EITC, less the additional payroll and ordinary federal income taxes. The private benefits include increases in after-tax income and reductions in poverty. The proposal would also generate social benefits through the spillover effects that the increase in income plays in improving health and children’s cognitive skills (Dahl and Lochner 2012; Evans and Garthwaite 2014; Hoynes, Miller, and Simon forthcoming). Downloads Building on the Success of the Earned Income Tax Credit - Full Text Authors Hilary Hoynes Publication: The Hamilton Project Image Source: Bluestocking Full Article
nc How Second Earners Can Rescue the Middle Class from Stagnant Incomes By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 10 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500 In his state of the union and his budget, the President spoke of the stagnation of middle class incomes. Whatever growth we have had has not been broadly shared. More than 78% of the growth in GDP between 1979 and 2013 has gone to the top one percent. Even Republicans are beginning to worry about this issue although they have yet to develop concrete proposals to address it. Slow Growth in Incomes Middle class incomes were growing slowly before the recession and have actually declined over the past decade. In addition, according to the New York Times, the proportion of the population with incomes between $35,000 and $100,000 in inflation-adjusted terms fell from 53% in 1967 to 43% in 2013. During the first four decades this was primarily because more people were moving into higher income groups, but more recently it was because they have moved down the ladder, not up. One can define the middle class in many different ways or torture the data in various ways, but there is plenty of evidence that we have a problem. What to Do The most promising approach is what I call “the second earner solution.” For many decades now, the labor force participation rate of prime age men has been falling while that of women has been rising. The entry of so many women into the labor force was the major force propelling whatever growth in middle class incomes occurred up until about 2000. That growth in women’s work has now levelled off. Getting it back on an upward track would do more than any policy I can think of to help the middle class. Imagine a household with one earner making the average wage of today’s worker and spending full-time in the job market. That household will have an income of around $34,000. But if he (or she) has a spouse making a similar amount, the household’s income will double to $68,000. That is why the President’s focus on a second-earner credit of $500, a tripling of the child care tax credit, expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, and providing paid leave are so important. These policies are all pro-work and research shows they would increase employment. No Marriage = No Second Earner One problem, of course, is that fewer and fewer households contain two potential workers. So it would also help to bring back marriage or at least its first cousin, a stable cohabiting relationship. My ideas on this front are spelled out in my new book, Generation Unbound. In a nutshell, we need to empower women to not have children before they have found a committed partner with whom to raise children in a stable, two-parent family. Whatever the other benefits of two parents, they have twice as much time and potentially twice as much income. Other Needed Responses Shouldn’t we also worry about the wages or the employment of men? Of course. But an increase in, say, the minimum wage or a better collective bargaining environment or more job training will have far smaller effects than “the second earner solution.” In addition, the decline in male employment is related to still more difficult problems such as high rates of incarceration and the failure of men to take advantage of postsecondary education as much as women have. Still the two-earner solution should not be pursued in isolation. In the short-term, a stronger recovery from the recession is needed and in the longer-term, more effective investments in education, research, infrastructure, and in labor market institutions that produce more widely-shared growth, as argued by the Commission on Inclusive Prosperity. But do we really expect families to wait for these long-term policies to pay off? It could be decades. In the meantime, the President’s proposals to make work more appealing to existing or potential second earners deserves more attention. Authors Isabel V. Sawhill Publication: Real Clear Markets Image Source: © Kevin Lamarque / Reuters Full Article
nc Challenges Facing Low-Income Individuals and Families By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 11 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500 Thanks for inviting me to testify on the important topic of challenges facing low-income families. It is an honor to testify before the Human Resources Subcommittee. I applaud your purposes and hope that I can help the Subcommittee members understand our current circumstances regarding work, benefits, and poverty by single mothers a little better. For well over a decade, my Brookings colleague Isabel Sawhill, a Democrat and former member of the Clinton administration, and I have been analyzing data and writing about the factors that influence both poverty rates and economic mobility.[i] We long ago concluded that education, work, and marriage are major keys to reducing poverty and increasing economic opportunity. We also emphasize the role of personal responsibility in all three of these vital components of building a path to the American Dream. But government programs to help low-income American parents escape poverty and build opportunity for themselves and their children are also important. In today’s hearing, the Subcommittee is taking testimony about marriage and work, two of these three keys to reducing poverty and increasing opportunity. Brad Wilcox from the University of Virginia will discuss the decline of married-couple families, the explosion of births outside marriage, and the consequent increase in the number of the nation’s children being reared by single (and often never-married) mothers. The increase in the proportion of children in female-headed families contributes to substantial increases in poverty by virtue of the fact that poverty rates in female-headed families are four to five times as great as poverty rates in married-couple families.[ii] If the share of the nation’s children in female-headed families continues to increase as it has been doing for four decades, policies to reduce poverty will be fighting an uphill battle because the rising rates of single-parent families will exert strong upward pressure on the poverty rate.[iii] But perhaps of even greater consequence, children reared in single-parent families are more likely to drop out of school, more likely to be arrested, less likely to go to college, more likely to be involved in a nonmarital birth, and more likely to be idle (not in school, not employed) than children from married-couple families.[iv] In this way, a disproportionate number of children from single-parent families carry poverty into the next generation and thereby minimize intergenerational mobility. So far public and nongovernmental programs have not been able to reverse falling marriage rates or rising nonmarital birth rates, but there is a lot we have done and can do to increase work rates, especially the work rates of low-income mothers. The goal of my testimony today is to explain the government policies that have been adopted in recent decades to increase work rates and subsidize earnings, which in turn have led to substantial declines in poverty. I make two points and a small number of recommendations. The first point is that the employment of low-income single mothers has increased over the two decades, in large part because of work requirements in federal programs, especially Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). The recessions of 2001 and 2007-2009 caused the employment rate of single mothers to fall (as well as nearly every other demographic group), but after both recessions work rates began to rise again. The second point is that the work-based safety net is an effective way to boost the income of working families with children that would be poor without the work supports. In my view, this combination of work requirements and work supports is the most successful approach the nation has yet developed to fight poverty in single-parent families with children. Here’s the essence of the policy approach: first, encourage or cajole single mothers to work by establishing work requirements in federal welfare programs; second, subsidize the earnings of low-income workers, both to increase their work incentive and to help them escape poverty. The primary work-based safety-net programs are the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), the Additional Child Tax Credit, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), child care, and Medicaid. [i] Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill, Work and Marriage: The Way to End Poverty and Welfare (Washington: Brookings Institution, 2003); Haskins and Sawhill, Creating an Opportunity Society (Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2009) [ii] Ron Haskins, “The Family is Here to Stay,” Future of Children 25, no. 2 (forthcoming); Kaye Hymowitz, Jason S. Carroll, W. Bradford Wilcox, and Kelleen Kaye, Knot Yet: The Benefits and Costs of Delayed Marriage in America (Charlottesville, VA: The National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy, and The Relate Institute, 2013). For an explanation of the central role of family structure in the continuing black-white income gap, see Deirdra Bloome, “Racial Inequality Trends and the Intergenerational Persistence of Income and Family Structure,” American Sociological Review 79 (December 2014): 1196-1225. [iii] Maria Cancian and Ron Haskins, “Changes in Family Composition: Implications for Income, Poverty, and Public Policy,” ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 654 (2014): 31-47. [iv] Sara McLanahan, Laura Tach, and Daniel Schneider, “The Causal Effect of Father Absence,” Annual Review of Sociology 29 (2013): 399-427. Downloads Full Testimony Authors Ron Haskins Publication: Subcommittee on Human Resources and Committee on Ways and Means Image Source: © Lucy Nicholson / Reuters Full Article
nc Money for nothing: Why a universal basic income is a step too far By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 15 Jun 2016 12:00:00 -0400 The idea of a universal basic income (UBI) is certainly an intriguing one, and has been gaining traction. Swiss voters just turned it down. But it is still alive in Finland, in the Netherlands, in Alaska, in Oakland, CA, and in parts of Canada. Advocates of a UBI include Charles Murray on the right and Anthony Atkinson on the left. This surprising alliance alone makes it interesting, and it is a reasonable response to a growing pool of Americans made jobless by the march of technology and a safety net that is overly complex and bureaucratic. A comprehensive and excellent analysis in The Economist points out that while fears about technological unemployment have previously proved misleading, “the past is not always a good guide to the future.” Hurting the poor Robert Greenstein argues, however, that a UBI would actually hurt the poor by reallocating support up the income scale. His logic is inescapable: either we have to spend additional trillions providing income grants to all Americans or we have to limit assistance to those who need it most. One option is to provide unconditional payments along the lines of a UBI, but to phase it out as income rises. Libertarians like this approach since it gets rid of bureaucracies and leaves the poor free to spend the money on whatever they choose, rather than providing specific funds for particular needs. Liberals fear that such unconditional assistance would be unpopular and would be an easy target for elimination in the face of budget pressures. Right now most of our social programs are conditional. With the exception of the aged and the disabled, assistance is tied to work or to the consumption of necessities such as food, housing, or medical care, and our two largest means-tested programs are Food Stamps and the Earned Income Tax Credit. The case for paternalism Liberals have been less willing to openly acknowledge that a little paternalism in social policy may not be such a bad thing. In fact, progressives and libertarians alike are loath to admit that many of the poor and jobless are lacking more than just cash. They may be addicted to drugs or alcohol, suffer from mental health issues, have criminal records, or have difficulty functioning in a complex society. Money may be needed but money by itself does not cure such ills. A humane and wealthy society should provide the disadvantaged with adequate services and support. But there is nothing wrong with making assistance conditional on individuals fulfilling some obligation whether it is work, training, getting treatment, or living in a supportive but supervised environment. In the end, the biggest problem with a universal basic income may not be its costs or its distributive implications, but the flawed assumption that money cures all ills. Authors Isabel V. Sawhill Image Source: © Tom Polansek / Reuters Full Article
nc Coronavirus poses serious financial risks to US universities By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 15:27:39 +0000 Universities around the country are dealing with health concerns as their first priority, and keeping instruction going—even if imperfectly—as the second priority. After dealing with these immediate issues, the next concern is fear of collapsing revenue. Health and instruction deserve every bit of effort going into them. The extent of worry about collapsing revenue isn’t… Full Article
nc Accumulating Evidence Using Crowdsourcing and Machine Learning: A Living Bibliography about Existential Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Feb 3, 2020 Feb 3, 2020The study of existential risk — the risk of human extinction or the collapse of human civilization — has only recently emerged as an integrated field of research, and yet an overwhelming volume of relevant research has already been published. To provide an evidence base for policy and risk analysis, this research should be systematically reviewed. In a systematic review, one of many time-consuming tasks is to read the titles and abstracts of research publications, to see if they meet the inclusion criteria. The authors show how this task can be shared between multiple people (using crowdsourcing) and partially automated (using machine learning), as methods of handling an overwhelming volume of research. Full Article
nc Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 11, 2020 Apr 11, 2020A simplified nuclear exchange model demonstrates that China’s ability to launch a successful nuclear retaliatory strike in response to an adversary’s nuclear first strike has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low. Full Article
nc On April 13, 2020, Suzanne Maloney discussed “Why the Middle East Matters” via video conference with IHS Markit. By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 13 Apr 2020 20:46:08 +0000 On April 13, 2020, Suzanne Maloney discussed "Why the Middle East Matters" via video conference with IHS Markit. Full Article
nc Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 1, 2020 Apr 1, 2020Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks. Full Article
nc To Pressure Iran, Pompeo Turns to the Deal Trump Renounced By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 26, 2020 Apr 26, 2020The secretary of state is preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the Obama-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the accord. Full Article
nc Accumulating Evidence Using Crowdsourcing and Machine Learning: A Living Bibliography about Existential Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Feb 3, 2020 Feb 3, 2020The study of existential risk — the risk of human extinction or the collapse of human civilization — has only recently emerged as an integrated field of research, and yet an overwhelming volume of relevant research has already been published. To provide an evidence base for policy and risk analysis, this research should be systematically reviewed. In a systematic review, one of many time-consuming tasks is to read the titles and abstracts of research publications, to see if they meet the inclusion criteria. The authors show how this task can be shared between multiple people (using crowdsourcing) and partially automated (using machine learning), as methods of handling an overwhelming volume of research. Full Article
nc Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 11, 2020 Apr 11, 2020A simplified nuclear exchange model demonstrates that China’s ability to launch a successful nuclear retaliatory strike in response to an adversary’s nuclear first strike has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low. Full Article
nc Accumulating Evidence Using Crowdsourcing and Machine Learning: A Living Bibliography about Existential Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Feb 3, 2020 Feb 3, 2020The study of existential risk — the risk of human extinction or the collapse of human civilization — has only recently emerged as an integrated field of research, and yet an overwhelming volume of relevant research has already been published. To provide an evidence base for policy and risk analysis, this research should be systematically reviewed. In a systematic review, one of many time-consuming tasks is to read the titles and abstracts of research publications, to see if they meet the inclusion criteria. The authors show how this task can be shared between multiple people (using crowdsourcing) and partially automated (using machine learning), as methods of handling an overwhelming volume of research. Full Article
nc Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 11, 2020 Apr 11, 2020A simplified nuclear exchange model demonstrates that China’s ability to launch a successful nuclear retaliatory strike in response to an adversary’s nuclear first strike has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low. Full Article
nc How Clean is the U.S. Steel Industry? An International Benchmarking of Energy and CO2 Intensities By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Dec 10, 2019 Dec 10, 2019In this report, the authors conduct a benchmarking analysis for energy and CO2 emissions intensity of the steel industry among the largest steel-producing countries. Full Article
nc Geopolitical and Market Implications of Renewable Hydrogen: New Dependencies in a Low-Carbon Energy World By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mar 4, 2020 Mar 4, 2020To accelerate the global transition to a low-carbon economy, all energy systems and sectors must be actively decarbonized. While hydrogen has been a staple in the energy and chemical industries for decades, renewable hydrogen is drawing increased attention today as a versatile and sustainable energy carrier with the potential to play an important piece in the carbon-free energy puzzle. Countries around the world are piloting new projects and policies, yet adopting hydrogen at scale will require innovating along the value chains; scaling technologies while significantly reducing costs; deploying enabling infrastructure; and defining appropriate national and international policies and market structures. What are the general principles of how renewable hydrogen may reshape the structure of global energy markets? What are the likely geopolitical consequences such changes would cause? A deeper understanding of these nascent dynamics will allow policy makers and corporate investors to better navigate the challenges and maximize the opportunities that decarbonization will bring, without falling into the inefficient behaviors of the past. Full Article
nc Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 1, 2020 Apr 1, 2020Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks. Full Article
nc Petrov puts puncture down to bad luck By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Wed, 09 Jun 2010 10:41:07 GMT Renault's Vitaly Petrov has put his puncture when fighting Fernando Alonso in the closing stages of the race down to bad luck Full Article
nc Red Bull aims to move on as McLaren looks to pounce By en.espnf1.com Published On :: Tue, 01 Jun 2010 10:39:03 GMT Red Bull has vowed to move on from its disastrous race in Turkey for the good of the team as it now faces a serious challenge from McLaren Full Article
nc Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 1, 2020 Apr 1, 2020Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks. Full Article
nc To Pressure Iran, Pompeo Turns to the Deal Trump Renounced By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 26, 2020 Apr 26, 2020The secretary of state is preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the Obama-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the accord. Full Article
nc After Social Distancing, a Strange Purgatory Awaits By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 16, 2020 Apr 16, 2020Life right now feels very odd. And it will feel odd for months—and even years—to come. Full Article
nc Getting Smart on Pandemics: Intelligence in the Wake of COVID-19 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 17, 2020 Apr 17, 2020This episode of Horns of a Dilemma touches on whether the failure to properly anticipate and warn about the novel coronavirus constitutes an intelligence failure, what changes might be required in the intelligence community in the wake of the pandemic, and what type of investigation or inquiry might be appropriate in order to learn lessons and incorporate changes for both the intelligence community and the whole of government moving forward. Full Article
nc Accumulating Evidence Using Crowdsourcing and Machine Learning: A Living Bibliography about Existential Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Feb 3, 2020 Feb 3, 2020The study of existential risk — the risk of human extinction or the collapse of human civilization — has only recently emerged as an integrated field of research, and yet an overwhelming volume of relevant research has already been published. To provide an evidence base for policy and risk analysis, this research should be systematically reviewed. In a systematic review, one of many time-consuming tasks is to read the titles and abstracts of research publications, to see if they meet the inclusion criteria. The authors show how this task can be shared between multiple people (using crowdsourcing) and partially automated (using machine learning), as methods of handling an overwhelming volume of research. Full Article
nc Living with Uncertainty: Modeling China's Nuclear Survivability By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 11, 2020 Apr 11, 2020A simplified nuclear exchange model demonstrates that China’s ability to launch a successful nuclear retaliatory strike in response to an adversary’s nuclear first strike has been and remains far from assured. This study suggests that China’s criterion for effective nuclear deterrence is very low. Full Article
nc To Pressure Iran, Pompeo Turns to the Deal Trump Renounced By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 26, 2020 Apr 26, 2020The secretary of state is preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the Obama-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the accord. Full Article
nc How Clean is the U.S. Steel Industry? An International Benchmarking of Energy and CO2 Intensities By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Dec 10, 2019 Dec 10, 2019In this report, the authors conduct a benchmarking analysis for energy and CO2 emissions intensity of the steel industry among the largest steel-producing countries. Full Article
nc Geopolitical and Market Implications of Renewable Hydrogen: New Dependencies in a Low-Carbon Energy World By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mar 4, 2020 Mar 4, 2020To accelerate the global transition to a low-carbon economy, all energy systems and sectors must be actively decarbonized. While hydrogen has been a staple in the energy and chemical industries for decades, renewable hydrogen is drawing increased attention today as a versatile and sustainable energy carrier with the potential to play an important piece in the carbon-free energy puzzle. Countries around the world are piloting new projects and policies, yet adopting hydrogen at scale will require innovating along the value chains; scaling technologies while significantly reducing costs; deploying enabling infrastructure; and defining appropriate national and international policies and market structures. What are the general principles of how renewable hydrogen may reshape the structure of global energy markets? What are the likely geopolitical consequences such changes would cause? A deeper understanding of these nascent dynamics will allow policy makers and corporate investors to better navigate the challenges and maximize the opportunities that decarbonization will bring, without falling into the inefficient behaviors of the past. Full Article
nc The Dire Consequences of Trump's Suleimani Decision By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 4, 2020 Jan 4, 2020Americans would be wise to brace for war with Iran, writes Susan Rice. "Full-scale conflict is not a certainty, but the probability is higher than at any point in decades. Despite President Trump’s oft-professed desire to avoid war with Iran and withdraw from military entanglements in the Middle East, his decision to order the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s second most important official, as well as Iraqi leaders of an Iranian-backed militia, now locks our two countries in a dangerous escalatory cycle that will likely lead to wider warfare." Full Article
nc The battle of 'resistance' vs 'revolution' in the Middle East By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Jan 15, 2020 Jan 15, 2020The events surrounding the US assassination of Iranian Quds Force leader Major General Qassem Soleimani brought to the surface the two main ideological forces that now battle each other across the Middle East - the anti-imperial "resistance" of Iran and its Arab allies, and the freedom "revolution" of domestic protesters in the same lands. Full Article
nc Armed Rebel Groups Lobby in D.C., Just Like Governments. How Does That Influence U.S. Policy? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Feb 6, 2020 Feb 6, 2020Armed rebel groups push for funding and recognition, and often get it. Full Article
nc What Allies Want: Reconsidering Loyalty, Reliability, and Alliance Interdependence By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 12, 2020 Apr 12, 2020Is indiscriminate loyalty what allies want? The First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954–55) case suggests that allies do not desire U.S. loyalty in all situations. Instead, they want the United States to be a reliable ally, posing no risk of abandonment or entrapment. Full Article
nc Civil Action and the Dynamics of Violence By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Sep 25, 2019 Sep 25, 2019A new book edited by Erica Chenoweth, Deborah Avant, Marie Berry, Rachel Epstein, Cullen Hendrix, Oliver Kaplan, and Timothy Sisk, Civil Action and the Dynamics of Violence, looks at recent conflicts in Syria, Peru, Kenya, Northern Ireland, Mexico, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Spain, and Colombia to explore the role that civil action played. Full Article
nc Home, Again: Refugee Return and Post-Conflict Violence in Burundi By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Oct 28, 2019 Oct 28, 2019In post-conflict societies, divisions can emerge between returnee and nonmigrant groups, which can in turn lead to violence and destabilization when government institutions favor one group over another. Full Article
