nar

Webinar: Reopening and revitalization in Asia – Recommendations from cities and sectors

As COVID-19 continues to spread through communities around the world, Asian countries that had been on the front lines of combatting the virus have also been the first to navigate the reviving of their societies and economies. Cities and economic sectors have confronted similar challenges with varying levels of success. What best practices have been…

       




nar

Webinar: Jihadism at a crossroads

Although jihadist groups have gripped the world’s attention for more than 20 years, today they are no longer in the spotlight. However, ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab remain active, and new groups have emerged. The movement as a whole is evolving, as is the threat it poses. On May 29, the Center for Middle East Policy…

       




nar

Webinar: Inspired to serve – The future of public service

Americans in military, national, and public service perform a critical role in our everyday lives — defending the homeland, ensuring public safety, responding to disasters, and much more. Today, as our nation battles the coronavirus pandemic, public servants, service members, volunteers, and national service members are the unsung heroes of this crisis, working tirelessly to…

       




nar

Webinar: Valuing Black lives and property in America’s Black cities

The deliberate devaluation of Black-majority cities stems from a longstanding legacy of discriminatory policies. The lack of investment in Black homes, family structures, businesses, schools, and voters has had far-reaching, negative economic and social effects. White supremacy and privilege are deeply ingrained into American public policy, and remain pervasive forces that hinder meaningful investment in…

       




nar

2020 and beyond: Maintaining the bipartisan narrative on US global development

It is timely to look at the dynamics that will drive the next period of U.S. politics and policymaking and how they will affect U.S. foreign assistance and development programs. Over the past 15 years, a strong bipartisan consensus—especially in the U.S. Congress—has emerged to advance and support U.S. leadership on global development as a…

       




nar

Income growth has been negligible but (surprise!) inequality has narrowed since 2007


Alert voters everywhere realize the economy is neither as strong as claimed by the party in power nor the disaster described by the opposition. The election season will bring many passionate but dubious claims about economic trends. People running for office know that voters rank the economy near the top of their concerns. Of course, perceptions of the economy differ from one voter to the next. A few of us are soaring, more are treading water, and too many are struggling just to stay afloat.

Since reaching a low point in 2009, total U.S. output—as measured by real GDP—has climbed 15 percent, or about 2.1 percent a year. The recovery has been long-lived and steady, a tribute to the stewardship of the Administration and Federal Reserve. The economic rebound has also been disappointingly slow in view of the depth of the recession. GOP office seekers will mention this fact a number of times before November.

Compared with the worst months of the Great Recession, the unemployment rate has dropped by half. It now stands at a respectable 4.9 percent, almost 3 points lower than the rate when President Obama took office and far below the rate in fall 2009 when it reached 10 percent. Payroll employment has increased for 77 consecutive months. Since hitting a low in January 2010, the number of workers on employer payrolls has surged 14.6 million, or about 190,000 a month. While the job gains are encouraging, they have not been fast enough to bring the employment-to-population ratio back to its pre-recession level. June’s job numbers showed that slightly less than 80 percent of adults between 25 and 54 were employed. That’s almost 2 percentage points below the employment-to-population rate on the eve of the Great Recession.

One of the most disappointing numbers from the recovery has been the growth rate of wages. In the first 5 years of the recovery, hourly wages edged up just 2 percent a year. After factoring in the effect of consumer price inflation, this translates into a gain of exactly 0 percent. The pace of wage gain has recently improved. Workers saw their real hourly pay climb 1.7 percent a year in the two years ending in June.

The economic bottom line for most of us is the rate of improvement in our family income after accounting for changes in consumer prices. No matter how household income is measured, income gains have been slower since 2007 than they were in earlier decades. The main reason is that incomes produced in the market—in the form of wages, self-employment income, interest, dividends, rental income, and realized capital gains—fell sharply in the Great Recession and have recovered very slowly since then. That a steep recession would cause a big drop in income is hardly a surprise. Employment, company profits, interest rates, and rents plunged in 2008 and 2009, pushing down the incomes Americans earn in the market. The bigger surprise has been the slow recovery of market income once the recession was behind us.

Some critics of the recovery argue that the income gains in the recovery have been highly skewed, with a disproportionate share obtained by Americans at the top of the income ladder. Economist Emmanuel Saez tabulates U.S. income tax statistics to track market income gains at the top of the distribution. His latest estimates show that between 2009 and 2015 income recipients in the top 1 percent enjoyed real income gains of 24 percent. Among Americans in the bottom nine-tenths of the income distribution, average market incomes climbed only 4 percent.

Source: Emmanuel Saez tabulations of U.S. income tax return data (including capital gains), 

However, Saez’s estimates also show that top income recipients experienced much bigger income losses in the Great Recession. Between 2007 and 2009 they saw their inflation-adjusted incomes drop 36 percent (see Chart 1). In comparison, the average market income of Americans in the bottom nine-tenths of the distribution fell just 12 percent. These numbers mean that top income recipients have not yet recovered the income losses they suffered in the Great Recession. In 2015 their average market income was still 13 percent below its pre-recession level. For families in the bottom nine-tenths of the distribution, market income was “only” 8 percent below its level in 2007.

Only about half of households rely solely on market income to support themselves. The other half receives income from government transfers. What is more, this fraction tends to increase in bad times. Many retirees rely mainly on Social Security to pay their bills; they depend on Medicare or Medicaid to pay for health care. Low-income Americans often have little income from the market, and they may rely heavily on public assistance, food stamps, or government-provided health insurance. When joblessness soars the percentage of families receiving government benefits rises, largely because of increases in the number of workers who collect unemployment insurance.

Government benefits, which are not counted in Saez’s calculations, replace part of the market income losses families experience in a weak economy. As a result, the net income losses of most families are much smaller than their market income losses. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently published statistics on market income and before-tax and after-tax income that shed light on the size and distribution of household income losses in the Great Recession and ensuing recovery. The tabulations show that, except for households at the top of the distribution, net income losses were far smaller than the losses indicated in Saez’s income tax data.

Source: Congressional Budget Office (2016) household income data (including capital gains), 

For example, among households in the middle fifth of the before-tax income distribution, average market income fell more than 10 percent in the Great Recession (see Chart 2). If we include government transfers in the income definition, average income fell 4.4 percent. If we account for the federal taxes families pay, average net income fell just 1 percent. In contrast, among households in the top 1 percent of the distribution, average market income fell 36 percent, average income including government transfers fell 36 percent, and average income net of federal taxes fell 37 percent. Government transfers provided little if any protection to top-income households.

The CBO income statistics end in 2013, so they do not tell us how net income gains have been distributed in the last couple of years. Nonetheless, based on Saez’s income tax tabulations it is very unlikely top income recipients have recovered the net income losses they experienced in the Great Recession. All the available statistics show household income gains since 2007 have been negligible or small, and this is true across the income distribution.

It is popular to say slow income gains in the middle and at the bottom of the distribution are due to outsize income gains among families at the top. While this story is at least partly true for the three decades ending in 2007, it does not fit the facts for the years since 2007. CBO’s latest net income tabulations show that inequality was almost 5 percent lower in 2013 than it was in 2007. The Great Recession hurt the incomes of Americans up and down the income distribution, but the biggest proportional income losses were at the very top. To be sure, income gains in the recovery after 2009 have been concentrated among top income recipients. Even so, their income losses over the recession and recovery have been proportionately bigger than the losses suffered by middle- and low-income families.


Editor's note: This piece originally appeared in Real Clear Markets.

Authors

Publication: Real Clear Markets
      
 
 




nar

The effect of COVID-19 and disease suppression policies on labor markets: A preliminary analysis of the data

World leaders are deliberating when and how to re-open business operations amidst considerable uncertainty as to the economic consequences of the coronavirus. One pressing question is whether or not countries that have remained relatively open have managed to escape at least some of the economic harm, and whether that harm is related to the spread…

       




nar

Webinar: Reopening the coronavirus-closed economy — Principles and tradeoffs

In an extraordinary response to an extraordinary public health challenge, the U.S. government has forced much of the economy to shut down. We now face the challenge of deciding when and how to reopen it. This is both vital and complicated. Wait too long—maintain the lockdown until we have a vaccine, for instance—and we’ll have another Great Depression. Move too soon, and we…

       




nar

Webinar: Telehealth before and after COVID-19

The coronavirus outbreak has generated an immediate need for telehealth services to prevent further infections in the delivery of health care. Before the global pandemic, federal and state regulations around reimbursement and licensure requirements limited the use of telehealth. Private insurance programs and Medicaid have historically excluded telehealth from their coverage, and state parity laws…

       




nar

Policy insights from comparing carbon pricing modeling scenarios

Carbon pricing is an important policy tool for reducing greenhouse gas pollution. The Stanford Energy Modeling Forum exercise 32 convened eleven modeling teams to project emissions, energy, and economic outcomes of an illustrative range of economy-wide carbon price policies. The study compared a coordinated reference scenario involving no new policies with policy scenarios that impose…

       




nar

Webinar: Reopening the coronavirus-closed economy — Principles and tradeoffs

In an extraordinary response to an extraordinary public health challenge, the U.S. government has forced much of the economy to shut down. We now face the challenge of deciding when and how to reopen it. This is both vital and complicated. Wait too long—maintain the lockdown until we have a vaccine, for instance—and we’ll have another Great Depression. Move too soon, and we…

       




nar

American self-criticism borders on narcissism

Those who said there will be war may not have realized there already was war. This doesn’t mean killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was good. It almost certainly wasn’t. Iran quickly retaliated by targeting two American military bases in Iraq and may find new ways to escalate, but Iran had already been escalating. The regime of the Syrian…

       




nar

Webinar: Electricity Discoms in India post-COVID-19: Untangling the short-run from the “new normal”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6-PSpx4dqU India’s electricity grid’s most complex and perhaps most critical layer is the distribution companies (Discoms) that retail electricity to consumers. They have historically faced numerous challenges of high losses, both financial and operational. COVID-19 has imposed new challenges on the entire sector, but Discoms are the lynchpin of the system.  In a panel discussion…

       




nar

Webinar: Global China — Assessing China’s technological reach in the world

China’s ambition to “catch up with and surpass” the West in advanced technologies, as well as concerns about how Beijing may deploy or exploit such technologies, have become significant drivers of geopolitical competition. While the United States has maintained a technological edge for decades, China has made major investments and implemented policies that have bolstered…

       




nar

Webinar: COVID-19 and the economy

With more than 1,000 deaths, 3 million and counting unemployed, and no definite end in sight, the coronavirus has upended nearly every aspect of American life. In the last two weeks, the Federal Reserve and Congress scrambled to pass policies to mitigate what will be a very deep recession. Americans across the country are asking—…

       




nar

Mexico is a prop in President Trump’s political narrative

When it comes to his country’s relationship with Mexico, U.S. President Donald Trump has decided to take a position that is at once reckless and suicidal. Reckless, because he is single-handedly scuttling a bilateral relationship with a nation that is vital to the prosperity, security, and well-being of the U.S. Suicidal, because the punitive tariffs…

       




nar

Webinar: Fighting COVID-19: Experiences and lessons from the frontlines in Asia

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, some East and Southeast Asian countries have employed various public health policy and medical approaches to slow the spread of the virus within their borders. These measures have been reasonably effective in slowing the spread of the pandemic, but they have not taken root in many countries outside of the…

       




nar

Webinar: Reopening and revitalization in Asia – Recommendations from cities and sectors

As COVID-19 continues to spread through communities around the world, Asian countries that had been on the front lines of combatting the virus have also been the first to navigate the reviving of their societies and economies. Cities and economic sectors have confronted similar challenges with varying levels of success. What best practices have been…

       




nar

Brasile – Bolsonaro acuisce la crisi delle istituzioni borghesi

In Brasile il governo Bolsonaro è dilaniato da spaccature e crisi. La classe dominante è irrimediabilmente divisa sulla pandemia del coronavirus e sulla calamità economica che il paese deve affrontare.




nar

Brazil: Bolsonaro intensifies the crisis of bourgeois institutions

Bolsonaro's goverment in Brazil is wracked with splits and crises. The ruling class is hopelessly divided over the coronavirus pandemic and the economic calamity facing the country.




nar

Brazil: an isolated, crisis-ridden and aimless government – Bolsonaro out!

The political crisis is accelerating. Bolsonaro is isolating himself more and more as his government teeters. The press is adding pressure and calling for investigations. Ex-president Fernando Henrique Cardoso is calling for Bolsonaro’s resignation. Right-wing politicians, who were elected in the wake of Bolsonaro (Doria, Witzel etc.), jumped ship a long time ago, like all good opportunists. Mandetta is gone. Moro is gone. And the question that many ask is: how long can right-hand-man Paulo Guedes last?




nar

Venezuela foils mercenary incursion: Guaidó and Washington responsible

In the early hours of Sunday 3 May, Venezuelan police and armed forces foiled an attempt by armed men to disembark in Macuto, La Guaira, 35km from the capital Caracas. In the ensuing clashes eight mercenaries were killed and weapons were seized, both from speedboats and stored on land. According to the authorities, the attack had the aim of kidnapping Venezuelan officials and sparking a military coup.




nar

Venezuela: more mercenaries arrested including two US special forces veterans

A number of mercenaries had been killed and others arrested in La Guaira on 3 May while trying to disembark in Venezuela as part of a plot against the Maduro government. On 4 May, another eight mercenaries were arrested in the coastal town of Chuao in Aragua state, amongst them two former US special forces veterans.




nar

Mercenary incursions against Venezuela: jail the coup plotters!

In this article, our Venezuelan comrades in Lucha de Clases analyse the foiled mercenary incursions into the country, and their links to opposition coup plotters and their imperialist masters. Jail for the those responsible! No more impunity!




nar

More details emerge of the mercenary military coup plot in Venezuela

We said from the very beginning that the Venezuelan opposition and the US administration were responsible for the attempted mercenary coup foiled in Venezuela on 3 May. As days go by, more details emerge which confirm that assessment.




nar

Say it with Butterflies - Green Start-Up Grows Monarch Butterflies for Events, Therapy & Conservation

Here is an interesting buisness idea; grow butterflies to let fly at special ocasions and at the same time help the enviornment as well as people with special needs. The project is called Mariposeando (Spanish for something




nar

Are raccoons "Urban anarchists" or "lovable rogues?"

Some would pick a third option: vermin.




nar

Bioneers 2009 - Annie Leonard Bringing Out More Stories of More Stuff

Annie Leonard is having an incredible run with her short documentary The Story of Stuff. The film still gets 10,000 views per day and has already reached 7.3 million people over the 22 months since it was released. The film




nar

Terrific Green Tool: Precautionary List From Perkins+Will

Architects usually keep their proprietary research locked up and closely held. Perkins + Will has done the opposite and made it a public service. Launched at Greenbuild the Precautionary List is a compilation of available data on chemicals and




nar

Documentary reveals Vo Trong Nghia, Vietnam's visionary bamboo architect (Video)

He is one of Asia's emerging architects, famous for building stunning, affordable and durable buildings out of bamboo.




nar

Narrow, abandoned museum transformed into multigenerational home

The historical character of this old Saigon building was preserved with a fresh and respectful makeover.




nar

Indian Vultures Show Some Signs Of Recovery Since Veterinary Painkiller Ban

Some good news on the critically endangered Indian vulture: New research published in PLoS One documents how the rate of the bird's decline has fallen since India, Nepal, and Pakistan banned the veterinary painkiller




nar

Photo: Triumphant monarch feeds on the ironweed

Our photo of the day comes from northern Illinois.




nar

Video: Leonardo Dicaprio's 11th Hour Trailer

Via MySpace, here's the trailer for 11th Hour with a spoken intro by Leonardo. According to IMDB, the film will be released in the USA on August 17th. Check out the official 11th Hour website.




nar

Leonardo DiCaprio or Brad Pitt: Who's the More Timely Eco-Hunk? Plus Mickey Rourke Fights Again!

Leonardo DiCaprio lost the Golden Globe, but he's always a winner on the green activist front. The eco-champ has signed on to be the celebrity face of watchmaker TAG Heuer. Replacing fellow eco-hunk Brad Pitt. But, Leo isn't pocketing a cent of his




nar

Leonardo DiCaprio's Green Oscar, Salma Hayek's Got Milk, and More

My favorite eco-star might of gotten snubbed by Oscar, but Leo's enivormental work gets a green prize. The actor/activist was honored with the International Green Film Award by Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev at the




nar

Leonardo DiCaprio Is Kids' Green Hero, Nicole Richie Taps Into Charity, and More

Photo via I Watch Stuff Leonardo DiCaprio is already a favorite with eco-minded like gals, like myself! Now the next generation are digging Leo and his big green heart. This Saturdays Nickelodeon's Kids' Choice Awards will honor the actor/activist with




nar

Leonardo DiCaprio's Timely Campaign, Paul McCartney's Green Family Affair, and More

Eco-hunk Leonardo DiCaprio is the new face of TAG Heuer Carrera watch. A gig formely held by fellow greenie, Brad Pitt. But, so long Brad and hello Leo! Ecorazzi posted the first shot of his soon to be released ad campaign. The green




nar

Leonardo DiCaprio's Big Green Heart, Beyonce's Fashion Excess, and more

Ok, so this isn't a true green item. But, kudo's to my favorite eco-celeb, Leonardo DiCaprio for his consistent give-back spirit. Leo and Kate Winslet returned to their Titanic roots to help out the ship's one remaining




nar

7 Ways Leonardo DiCaprio Proves Green is Sexy

Yes, he's blond, blue-eyed handsome and yes, he's talented. But Academy Award-winning Leonardo DiCaprio continually proves he is more than just a pretty face jumping on the celebrity hybrid bandwagon. From resorts




nar

Leonardo DiCaprio wants to find the world's loneliest whale, donates $50k for search

Good Guy Leo strikes again!




nar

Sleeping octopus's changing camouflage narrates her dream (video)

Watch a remarkable clip of Heidi the octopus as she sleeps and dreams – from the new PBS series, Octopus: Making Contact.




nar

Did Peak Oil Doomers Fixate On a False Scenario?

The problem is not too little oil, says a new IEA report, it's too much oil. And it illustrates why activists should not presume to know the future.




nar

Simple device turns your ordinary home into a smart home

The device monitors the energy use of all the power loads in your house.




nar

Luminous lunar pavilion blends tradition with digital design (Video)

This stunning temporary pavilion utilizes Hong Kong's time-honored bamboo construction methods in conjunction with cutting-edge computational design.




nar

Super sexual centenarian tortoise single-handedly saves his species

Tortoise sauve! The randy 100-year-old Galapagos tortoise has sired over 800 babies.




nar

10 non-culinary tools that are handy in the kitchen

Raid other rooms for items that can help you cook more efficiently.




nar

Leonard Cohen 1934 – 2016

The poet and singer was often quoted in TreeHugger.




nar

Helsinki Converts Historic Slaughterhouse into Culinary Hotspot

Helsinki's old abattoir has become the heart of the city's culinary revival, a movement blending innovation and tradition that integrates local foods, pop-up eateries, and urban gardens.




nar

Friday's blood moon will be the longest total lunar eclipse of the 21st century

This month's Full Buck blood moon will star in the longest total lunar eclipse of the century.