21 January 2020

26 May 2016

In the field of energy and climate change policy, remaining in the EU offers the best balance of policy options for Britain’s national interests.

Brexit. Who knows what’s going to happen in the next few weeks, months, years - the uncertainty is high. In the face of that, you’d hope that the government was doing all it could to plan for any eventuality - let alone for a massive, country altering one like suddenly crashing out without a deal - but Martin McKee, professor of public health at...

This week we saw the release of the much awaited Yellowhammer documents from the government, documents which outline some of the risks involved with Britain’s sudden departure from the EU. The documents themselves outline that there are risks to the supply of medicines - but do not set out the detail of how those risks have been mitigated, and...

Invitation Only Research Event

Event participants

Alistair Burt, Conservative Member of Parliament (1983-97 and 2001-19); Minister of State for the Middle East, UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office and Minister of State at the Department for UK International Development (2017-19)

Research Event

Event participants

Gavin Barwell, Downing Street Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Theresa May (2017-19)
Chair: Thomas Raines, Director, Europe Programme, Chatham House

Invitation Only Research Event

Event participants

Tim Yeo, Chairman, The New Nuclear Watch Institute
Chair: Antony Froggatt, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House 

Amid ongoing Brexit negotiations, much remains uncertain for the roughly 1 million UK citizens living elsewhere in the European Union. This report offers a demographic profile of these Brexpats, considering what form an EU-UK deal on citizens’ rights might take and identifying key challenges many Britons are likely to face—including difficulty securing legal status and accessing labor markets, social security, and health-care systems.

Brexit Day, on January 31, 2020, marks a dramatic turn for the United Kingdom as it leaves the European Union, in significant measure because it wants to control its immigration destiny. But it remains unclear whether Brexit will allow the United Kingdom to cast a net wider for the global workers it seeks or will deepen the moat around the island. Either way, Brexit is likely to spark new forms of mobility—and immobility.

While the political and economic ramifications of the UK vote to quit the European Union hit with full force within hours, it will take far more time to sort out what Brexit means for migration policy. In the short term, the rights of EU nationals living in Britain are the most pressing, with border-control negotiations and future immigration levels also high on the agenda. Against a backdrop of deep public skepticism, this commentary suggests the next government should underpromise and overdeliver.

Mitt Romney wants to round up 12 million illegal immigrants and deport them. John Edwards wants to put an end to lobbyists. All the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates rail against the ways of Washington.

Six months on from the original March 2019 Brexit date and staring a new deadline in the face, many EU countries still had only skeletal plans for how to adjust the status of their resident UK nationals should a no-deal Brexit come to pass. This policy brief highlights critical gaps in these plans, the groups most likely to be affected by them, and strategies Member States and the United Kingdom could adopt to soften the impact.

This paper considers online convex optimization over a complicated constraint set, which typically consists of multiple functional constraints and a set constraint. The conventional online projection algorithm (Zinkevich, 2003) can be difficult to implement due to the potentially high computation complexity of the projection operation. In this paper, we relax the functional constraints by allowing them to be violated at each round but still requiring them to be satisfied in the long term. This type of relaxed online convex optimization (with long term constraints) was first considered in Mahdavi et al. (2012). That prior work proposes an algorithm to achieve $O(sqrt{T})$ regret and $O(T^{3/4})$ constraint violations for general problems and another algorithm to achieve an $O(T^{2/3})$ bound for both regret and constraint violations when the constraint set can be described by a finite number of linear constraints. A recent extension in Jenatton et al. (2016) can achieve $O(T^{max{ heta,1- heta}})$ regret and $O(T^{1- heta/2})$ constraint violations where $ hetain (0,1)$. The current paper proposes a new simple algorithm that yields improved performance in comparison to prior works. The new algorithm achieves an $O(sqrt{T})$ regret bound with $O(1)$ constraint violations.

Dual first-order methods are essential techniques for large-scale constrained convex optimization. However, when recovering the primal solutions, we need $T(epsilon^{-2})$ iterations to achieve an $epsilon$-optimal primal solution when we apply an algorithm to the non-strongly convex dual problem with $T(epsilon^{-1})$ iterations to achieve an $epsilon$-optimal dual solution, where $T(x)$ can be $x$ or $sqrt{x}$. In this paper, we prove that the iteration complexity of the primal solutions and dual solutions have the same $Oleft(frac{1}{sqrt{epsilon}} ight)$ order of magnitude for the accelerated randomized dual coordinate ascent. When the dual function further satisfies the quadratic functional growth condition, by restarting the algorithm at any period, we establish the linear iteration complexity for both the primal solutions and dual solutions even if the condition number is unknown. When applied to the regularized empirical risk minimization problem, we prove the iteration complexity of $Oleft(nlog n+sqrt{frac{n}{epsilon}} ight)$ in both primal space and dual space, where $n$ is the number of samples. Our result takes out the $left(log frac{1}{epsilon} ight)$ factor compared with the methods based on smoothing/regularization or Catalyst reduction. As far as we know, this is the first time that the optimal $Oleft(sqrt{frac{n}{epsilon}} ight)$ iteration complexity in the primal space is established for the dual coordinate ascent based stochastic algorithms. We also establish the accelerated linear complexity for some problems with nonsmooth loss, e.g., the least absolute deviation and SVM.

Gregory Cox.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 584--606.

Abstract:
This paper establishes the argmin of a random objective function to be unique almost surely. This paper first formulates a general result that proves almost sure uniqueness without convexity of the objective function. The general result is then applied to a variety of applications in statistics. Four applications are discussed, including uniqueness of M-estimators, both classical likelihood and penalized likelihood estimators, and two applications of the argmin theorem, threshold regression and weak identification.

Qian Qin, James P. Hobert.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 4, 2320--2347.

Abstract:
The use of MCMC algorithms in high dimensional Bayesian problems has become routine. This has spurred so-called convergence complexity analysis, the goal of which is to ascertain how the convergence rate of a Monte Carlo Markov chain scales with sample size, $n$, and/or number of covariates, $p$. This article provides a thorough convergence complexity analysis of Albert and Chib’s [ J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 88 (1993) 669–679] data augmentation algorithm for the Bayesian probit regression model. The main tools used in this analysis are drift and minorization conditions. The usual pitfalls associated with this type of analysis are avoided by utilizing centered drift functions, which are minimized in high posterior probability regions, and by using a new technique to suppress high-dimensionality in the construction of minorization conditions. The main result is that the geometric convergence rate of the underlying Markov chain is bounded below 1 both as $n ightarrowinfty$ (with $p$ fixed), and as $p ightarrowinfty$ (with $n$ fixed). Furthermore, the first computable bounds on the total variation distance to stationarity are byproducts of the asymptotic analysis.

Anton Thalmaier, James Thompson.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 3, 2202--2225.

Abstract:
In this article, we derive moment estimates, exponential integrability, concentration inequalities and exit times estimates for canonical diffusions firstly on sub-Riemannian limits of Riemannian foliations and secondly in the nonsmooth setting of $operatorname{RCD}^{*}(K,N)$ spaces. In each case, the necessary ingredients are Itô’s formula and a comparison theorem for the Laplacian, for which we refer to the recent literature. As an application, we derive pointwise Carmona-type estimates on eigenfunctions of Schrödinger operators.

Exiting low inflation traps by "consensus": nominal wages and price stability - Speech by Luiz A Pereira da Silva and Benoît Mojon, based on the keynote speech at the Eighth High-level Policy Dialogue between the Eurosystem and Latin American Central Banks, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, 28-29 November 2019.

This paper studies the relationship between bank geographic complexity and risk. We use a unique dataset of 96 bank holding companies around the world to measure the geographic dispersion of their affiliates. We study how this dispersion interacts with economic and regulatory conditions to affect the riskiness of the bank.

RESEARCHERS have called for a two-track approach to easing lockdown which would strengthen protection for the most vulnerable but relax restrictions for the majority of the population.

SCOTLAND is struggling to meet its targets for new affordable homes despite government funding.

The flow of homes coming on to the UK market is at its weakest level in three years as "endless wrangling about Brexit" continues, according to surveyors.

In “Painting Nationalism Red?”, an engaging new pamphlet published by Democratic Left Scotland, the journalist Neal Ascherson pays tribute to Tom Nairn as Scotland’s “pre-eminent political intellectual”.

A few days after a majority of Britons backed Brexit in June 2016, this newspaper reported that Nicola Sturgeon had been in talks with London Mayor Sadiq Khan and the Chief Minister of Gibraltar, Fabian Picardo.

“Scotland”, declared a young Alex Salmond in May 1975, “knows from bitter experience what treatment is in store for a powerless region of a common market.”

The European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill got the Royal Assent this week. It was then solemnly signed, sealed and ratified by Ursula von der Leyen, the new President of the European Commission. We’re finally out.

Children with medical complexity are high users of acute health care, but little is known about their service use across the continuum of care services and in the context of overall health care expenditures.

Although accounting for <1% of the child population, children with medical complexity use almost one-third of all pediatric health care expenditures and make multiple transitions across providers and health care settings. (Read the full article)

Few reports have explored the measurement validity of the relative value unit (RVU) system, particularly in pediatrics. The RVU system, although broadly applied in health care settings, was developed for the adult population and thus may possess unique inadequacies in pediatrics.

We found deficiencies in the ability of the RVU system to capture features of case mix complexity and differences related to age. Additional investigation may be warranted to determine the validity of RVU as a measurement tool in pediatrics. (Read the full article)

Quality measures developed by the Pediatric Quality Measures Program are required to assess disparities in performance according to special health care need status. Methods are needed to identify children according to level of medical complexity in administrative data.

The Pediatric Medical Complexity Algorithm is a new, publicly available algorithm that identifies the small proportion of children with complex chronic disease in Medicaid claims and hospital discharge data with good sensitivity and good to excellent specificity. (Read the full article)

Children with medical complexity require a disproportionate amount of health services due to a multitude of chronic severe illness, and their impact on the health care system appears to be increasing.

This study provides one of the first comparisons of health care utilization patterns for children with medical complexity between medical centers in a population-based cohort. (Read the full article)

United Kingdom and European Union negotiators were working through Sunday as the outcome of Brexit talks hung in the balance.

The UK and the European Union are on course to miss a key milestone on the road to a Brexit deal after talks hit a roadblock. Negotiations are now paused, putting pressure on leaders to step into the breach later this week.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:

Children with medical complexity (CMC) comprise only 6% of the pediatric population, account for ~40% of pediatric health care spending, and provide an important opportunity for cost saving. Savings in this group can have an important impact on pediatric health care costs. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of a multicenter care management program on spending and use in CMC.

The Culture, Tourism, Europe and External Affairs Committee will on Thursday (5 March) question the Secretary of State for Scotland regarding the Withdrawal Agreement and the future relationship between the European Union and the UK.

Head of Goldman Sachs Colin Coleman tells Bloomberg TV the stand-off between Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and the Hawks can devastate the country.

Mining giant Anglo American plans to exit coal mining in South Africa, in a major shift away from carbon-intense operations.

Intel's domination will continue as Qualcomm is set to quit after just seven months of trying.

NEW CASTLE (May 30, 2018) – As a way to better support the needs of children with medical complexity and their families, the Division of Medicaid and Medical Assistance this week released Delaware’s Plan for Managing the Health Care Needs of Children with Medical Complexity and announced that stakeholders will continue work to develop longer-term […]

Smyrna --

Location: Exit 119/US 13/SR 6/SR 300 closed between Route 1 northbound and US 13, Smyrna.

Times and Dates: 10:00 a.m. until Noon on Thursday, April 23, 2020

Traffic Information: DelDOT's contractor will be paving Exit 119.

Detour Route: Motorists will take Exit 114/US 13, south of Smyrna. [More]

Newport --

As part of the Route 141 Improvements, I-95 Interchange to Jay Drive project, the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) announces to motorists that Exit 2 and Airport Road will be closed to traffic stating on March 1, 2020.

Exit 2/Route 141 southbound to I-295 northbound will be closed starting at 4:00 p.m. on March 1, 2020 until late-May 2020 to construct the ramps and roadway.

Detour Routes for Exit 2:

For traffic on Route 141 southbound, north of I-95 interchange, motorists will take the ramp to I-95 southbound to Route 58/Churchmans Road, turn left onto Route 7, take ramp to I-95 northbound and take ramp to I-295 northbound. [More]

Smyrna --

Traffic Information: DelDOT announces to motorists that intermittent lane closures will occur on Route 1 northbound near Exit 114 (US 13/SR 6/SR 300) for bridge repairs.

Location: Route 1 Northbound at Exit 114, south of Smyrna.

Times and Dates: 6:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m. [More]