us policy

At APEC and G20, Biden faces leaders worried about US policy changes

White House — In what will likely be his farewell appearance on the world stage, President Joe Biden faces a daunting question: what to tell world leaders wondering about potential changes in U.S. policies when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House with his America First agenda. Biden is set to depart for Peru and Brazil Thursday for two major economic summits. Biden is scheduled to spend Friday and Saturday in Lima with leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, made up of 21 member economies that promote free trade in the region.  He will be in Rio de Janeiro on Monday and Tuesday to meet with leaders of the world's 20 largest economies at the Group of 20 summit. On the way to Rio from Lima, Biden will make a brief stop at Manaus for a climate-focused engagement in Brazil's state of Amazonas. In his meetings, Biden must face allies and partners who four years ago may have been skeptical about his "America is back" message and the durability of U.S. global commitments. These leaders saw Trump, during his first term, act to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord and threaten to pull out of NATO. Uncertainties about future U.S. policy will complicate efforts to reach an agenda on issues of global concern such as trade, poverty and debt alleviation, climate change, sustainable development, and green energy. "There will be a lot of combination of lamenting, speculation, guessing about what we'll see coming first in terms of policies out of the campaign and how countries are best able to position themselves," said Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 'America's allies are vital' To these leaders, Biden's message is that "America's allies are vital to America's national security," said national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who previewed the trip to reporters on Wednesday. "They make us stronger. They multiply our capability. They take a burden off of our shoulders. They contribute to our common causes," Sullivan said. He underscored that Biden would be attending the APEC summit when U.S. alliances in the region were at an "all-time high," with bolstered ties with Japan, Korea, Australia and the Philippines. Biden will hold a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of APEC with President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan to "discuss the importance of institutionalizing" the progress made so that it carries forward through the transition to the new administration, Sullivan said. Whatever the questions surrounding the next administration, Biden will emphasize his faith in the "ideals of American engagement around the world," said Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center. "He believes it is in the best interest of both America and the world for it to continue," Lipsky said. "And not one election or one president can undercut that, from his perspective." Biden's agenda In Rio de Janeiro, Biden will "demonstrate the strong value proposition of the United States to developing countries and lead the G20 to work together to address shared global challenges," the White House said. He is expected to hold bilateral meetings with summit hosts Peruvian President Dina Boluarte and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In Lima, he is set to support Peru's initiative to expand APEC's economic inclusion efforts to empower workers in the informal economy, said Matt Murray, U.S. senior official for APEC. In Rio, he will focus on workers' rights and clean economic growth and attend the launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, Lula's initiative aimed at accelerating global efforts to reduce hunger and poverty by 2030. In Manaus, Biden will make history as the first sitting U.S. president to visit the Brazilian Amazon. There, he will deliver remarks on climate conservation and engage Indigenous leaders working to preserve the rainforest. Symbolic and short-lived Many of Biden's efforts will be mostly symbolic and short-lived, as the incoming U.S. administration could bring dramatically different priorities on global welfare programs and climate change. Analysts say that while the world has watched U.S. leadership swing from Republican to Democratic and back again in recent years, Chinese President Xi Jinping will seek to project an image of stability as he exerts his vision of China's increased role on the global stage. In Peru, Xi will inaugurate a $1.3 billion megaport, part of China's infrastructure investment program that has bought him influence in various parts of the world. Beijing has increased diplomatic engagement in the region, with Xi visiting 11 Latin American countries since becoming president, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua. Summit hosts Peru and Brazil are set to honor him with state visits this month. A meeting between Biden and Xi, likely their last during Biden's term, is scheduled in Lima for Saturday. The meeting comes as Trump appoints ardent China critics in key foreign policy positions, moves that could lead to a more confrontational U.S. posture toward Beijing. Whatever the next administration decides, it's going to need to find ways to manage the "tough, complicated relationship" between the U.S. and China, a senior official said when asked what Biden might tell Xi to expect from the incoming administration.




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Prime Minister to Cabinet: Prepare for US Policy Changes under Trump

[Politics] :
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has ordered officials to prepare for potential policy changes in the United States upon Donald Trump’s reelection. The prime minister issued the instruction Tuesday during a Cabinet meeting, saying the U.S. is expected to seek “considerable policy shifts” in foreign ...

[more...]




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Belarus Policy: Time to Play Hardball

12 August 2020

James Nixey

Director, Russia-Eurasia and Europe Programmes
Predictably, Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s regime has betrayed its people and the West’s trust yet again. A new, tougher approach is now the only option, and sanctions are only one of several actions that should be taken.

2020-08-12-Belarus-Protest-Election-Women

Women take part in an event in support of detained and injured participants in mass protests against the results of the 2020 Belarusian presidential election. Photo by Natalia FedosenkoTASS via Getty Images.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s 26-year rule — one of the world’s longest — is itself testament to his regime’s unwillingness to change. Most of Belarus’s immediate neighbours — particularly Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland — are far more prosperous. Now, with the farce of last week’s vote and the subsequent renewed violence that Minsk is willing to use on its citizens, Belarus finds itself at the very bottom of the post-Soviet legitimacy league table. But others share a portion of blame for this saga. The West — and the EU in particular — have failed the people of Belarus.

Russia — as ever in its relationships with the Soviet Union’s other successor states — has much to answer for. Like a drug pusher, it made a loss-leading investment in getting Belarus hooked on subsidised energy with meaningless security guarantees thrown in. Lukashenka may not have been the most compliant of post-Soviet leaders — especially recently — but he is still preferred by the Kremlin over any other potential contender, especially the reforming ones currently at the fore. ‘A son-of-a-bitch, but our son-of-a-bitch’ is Russia’s take.

But if Russia is the pusher, Western countries have been the enablers. Lukashenka has played them — and played them off against Russia — by frequently rejecting the offers of one and getting closer to the other, then switching and doing the same. The inability or unwillingness to recognize — and act on — evidence of the regime’s insincerity and its propensity to inflict harm on its own citizens has encouraged Minsk’s worst excesses. At the time of writing, more than 3,000 are reported to have been arrested and many tortured.

The EU bears special responsibility for this enabling. Ever since Belarus’s independence almost 30 years ago, it has offered plenty of carrots but few meaningful sticks. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that ‘harassment & violent repression of peaceful protesters has no place in Europe’, but statements alone are inadequate. The Belarusian people are risking their freedoms and their lives on the streets of Minsk while the EU simply ‘calls on’ the Belarusian authorities to respect the democratic process.

Never too late

There is plenty that can be done. Sanctions are a much-touted first step and they have been proven to change the calculus, if not the character, of a regime. The EU, the UK and the US should act decisively and in unison to impose them immediately. Included in this would be the immediate halting of direct EU support to state entities.

But — as with Russia — it is lazy to limit responses to sanctions alone. Expulsion from international groups and values-based organizations should also be expedited. The EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) project with Belarus and five other countries is a prime example of supposedly conditional offers of financial assistance having been accepted, claimed and then defaulted on, time and again. It is time to make an example of Belarus and expel it from the EaP since it is abundantly clear it has no intention of adopting the values demanded of it.

The OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) was invited by the Belarusian authorities too late to observe last Sunday’s vote-rigging, so why, in the face of such obvious obstruction, is Belarus even a member? The OSCE often claims its strength is its inclusivity, but this has rarely stood up to scrutiny. Inclusivity may have advantages, but one should also acknowledge its propensity to dilute effectiveness. Belarus should be expelled from here too.

The same goes for the IMF, the World Bank group, and its WTO observer status. It is time to make an example of this regime.

There should be less diplomatic nicety. It is natural that foreign service officials are hard-wired to want to make things better through their undoubted skills of sensitivity and tact, and sometimes this is the right answer. But not always. It would be better in some instances, such as this one, to give a tougher message — making it clear this regime is no longer seen as legitimate and that, where possible, western countries will seek relationships with more representative figures. This is neither easy nor especially pleasant, but it is not the same as breaking off diplomatic relations entirely, which is not wise as sometimes the organs of power must be dealt with.

And in terms of immediate practical help, the EU has an obligation to open its borders to Belarusian refugees who will surely come its way as conditions deteriorate. Lithuania is already showing the way in this regard.

Belarus is not one of the more difficult countries. It has no influence, no natural resources and therefore no leverage. It could resort to even more brutal repression of its citizens, but it should be made clear that such a desperate move by the authorities would entail even greater sanction. A common argument against a tougher approach is that it will drive Belarus into the arms of Russia. But this is to fall into the same trap — blackmail in reality — that we have seen for 20 years. In fact, it would be a good litmus test for a similar policy towards other ‘abuser countries’, such as Hungary.

Russia is certainly watching closely right now, and the last thing it wants is another colour revolution. The probability is that it will get this wish for now, as the demonstrations will surely cool off and key opposition figures not already in jail have been forced to flee. But western quiescence, as it always does, encourages Russia to act with further impunity. No invasion needed this time though if it already has most of what it wants — Union State notwithstanding — and the West stands aside.

A Chinese proverb maintains that ‘the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now’. This holds true for dealing with Belarus. It is not too late to act decisively and play hardball. In doing so, the EU would help repair its reputation for hand-wringing and the people of Belarus might look at the EU with a respect they have lost.




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Coronavirus policy

To all local bodies within U.S. Grand Lodge: For all official gatherings, please observe all guidance issued by the CDC, and by state or local health authorities, pertaining to sanitation, hygiene, and event attendance related to the new Coronavirus.




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US Policy Responses to Labor Market Distress

A look at support and regenerative policy initiatives by the Federal Reserve and the Government as more than 20 million jobs were lost in April 2020.




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US Policy Responses to Labor Market Distress

A look at support and regenerative policy initiatives by the Federal Reserve and the Government as more than 20 million jobs were lost in April 2020.




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Danger ahead? Taiwan’s politics, China’s ambitions, and US policy

It is a great honor for me to speak today at the Hamilton Lugar School, not only because I worked for Congressman Lee Hamilton for two and a half years, but also because he and Senator Lugar have represented something very important about the politics of U.S. foreign policy. They were in their time two…

       




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In 6 charts, see what Americans really think about US policy toward Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan

The following is based on new findings from two consecutive  University of Maryland Critical Issues Polls, conducted September 3-20, and October 4-10. The full results can be found here, and the methodology and questionnaire here. 1From the day President Trump announced his decision to withdraw troops from northern Syria, which we started measuring on October…

       




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After the Trump-Kim summit 2.0: What’s next for US policy on North Korea?

The summit meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un on February 27 and 28 in Vietnam brought the two leaders together for the second time in less than a year. U.S.-North Korea negotiations on nuclear issues have been at a stalemate since the first summit in Singapore that touted lofty…

       




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Op-ed: Pandemic moves Modern Monetary Theory from the fringes to actual US policy

The total amount of government economic aid in response to the coronavirus downturn is expected to exceed $10 trillion.




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Zbigniew Brzezinski, US policy adviser, 1928-2017

Right-hand man to President Carter from Iran hostage crisis to Salt Two arms treaty 




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US policy toward Africa: eight decades of realpolitik / Herman J. Cohen

Dewey Library - JZ1480.A56 C64 2020




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The dynamics of news and indigenous policy in Australia / Kerry McCallum and Lisa Waller

McCallum, Kerry, author