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Trump’s proposed tariffs, especially on China and Mexico, could hit California hard

By Levi Sumagaysay, CalMatters

Welcome to CalMatters, the only nonprofit newsroom devoted solely to covering issues that affect all Californians. Sign up for WhatMatters to receive the latest news and commentary on the most important issues in the Golden State.

A range of experts, from Nobel Prize-winning economists to an internet-famous menswear writer, have a message for Americans who voted for Donald Trump based on his promises to bring down prices: This likely won’t go how you want. 

Some voters cited the cost of living as a factor in their decision to elect Trump to a second term as president. But with inflation actually starting to ease, his proposed tariffs, which the president-elect has called the “most beautiful word in the dictionary,” could actually raise prices again.

While some experts don’t think more tariffs are a bad idea, the majority of economists and other experts who spoke with CalMatters echoed 23 Nobel laureates who warned that Trump’s policies would be worse for the economy than the ones proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris. Those economists wrote a letter last month calling Harris’ economic agenda “vastly superior” to Trump’s, and mentioned tariffs as one reason.

“His policies, including high tariffs even on goods from our friends and allies and regressive tax cuts for corporations and individuals, will lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality,” the economists wrote.

Businesses that import goods into the country must pay the tariffs. They tend to pass on their increased costs to consumers, with some executives recently promising to do just that during their earnings calls. So economists largely view tariffs as a tax, especially on the lowest- and middle-income families in the nation. 

While tariffs could raise prices for all U.S. consumers, California could feel the brunt of the impact in part because of the countries Trump singled out during his campaign: China and Mexico. Those two countries accounted for 40% of the state’s imports in 2023.

“The port and logistics complex in Southern California is a very important part of the economy, and directly tied to the countries he threatened,” said Stephen Levy, an economist and director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, an independent, private research organization in Silicon Valley. 

Trump imposed tariffs during his first presidential term, and President Joe Biden maintained some of them. During his campaign this time around, Trump said he intends to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports, and has mentioned even higher tariffs on goods from China (60%) and Mexico (100% to 200% on cars). 

Such tariffs could exacerbate California’s already high cost of living and raise the prices of cars, technology and electronic products, medical devices, groceries and more. Also, as the state saw during Trump’s first term — which included a trade war, with countries retaliating with their own tariffs on U.S. exports — California’s agricultural industry is likely to feel the effects. Trump’s proposed tariffs could also have an adverse effect on the state’s ports, which are among the nation’s busiest. 

And all of those outcomes could have a ripple effect on jobs in the state, including those in agriculture, trade and manufacturing.

What the state’s ports expect

Trade experts say it’s too early to tell how the state’s ports could be affected, though some of them also said they expect a near-term surge in activity as businesses brace themselves for tariffs by importing more goods now. 

“Long Beach and Los Angeles are two of the largest ports in the U.S.,” said Jonathan Aronson, a professor of communication and international relations at the University of Southern California, who studies trade and the international political economy. “Their traffic would presumably slow in both directions” if Trump imposes tariffs, Aronson said. Like other experts, though, he wondered if the president-elect is using the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic — say, to pressure Mexico into doing more to limit immigration into the United States. 

The most recent available data for the Port of Los Angeles, which is the busiest in North America and handles nearly 10% of all U.S. imports, shows that trade activity rose nearly 19% at the port in September from the same month a year ago. September imports totaled $27.9 billion, a 20% increase year over year. There’s a chance those numbers could head the opposite direction as a result of tariffs.

“Significant increases in tariffs, and the possibility of retaliatory tariffs, could have a significant impact on traffic — and jobs — at the port,” said Phillip Sanfield, a spokesperson. “We’re monitoring developments closely.”

The Port of Los Angeles says nearly 1 million California jobs are related to trade at that port.

The Port of Long Beach handles about 3% of all U.S. imports and has about 575,000 Southern California jobs tied to trade. Chief Executive Mario Cordero said, through a spokesperson, that he is waiting to see what trade policies Trump actually will adopt: “At this point we expect that strong consumer demand will continue to drive cargo shipments upward in the near term.” 

The Port of Oakland, whose trade-related jobs at both the airport and seaport number about 98,000, also expects a traffic boost at first. Spokesperson Robert Bernardo: “As a West Coast seaport, our primary trading partner is Asia, and what’s happening right now is that retailers are expecting a short-term shipping surge in advance of new tariffs.” 

Mike Jacob is the president of the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, a not-for-profit maritime trade association whose members facilitate trade. They include ocean carriers, marine terminal operators and more. 

Jacob, too, said he is expecting trade activity to pick up ahead of whatever tariffs Trump imposes: “Given the lack of understanding of the timing, scope and scale (of the tariffs), you’re more likely than not to move cargo earlier.”

As a result of tariffs during Trump’s first term, Jacob said there was “a small bump in cargo back in 2019 that resulted in additional impacts on our logistics chain.” He said after that experience, which was then followed by pandemic-related chaos, the industry might be a little more prepared to deal with possible supply-chain disruptions.

Possible effects on manufacturing

The San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce is worried about potential tariffs on goods from Mexico. Kenia Zamarripa, a spokesperson for the group, said the CaliBaja region — which includes San Diego and Imperial counties and the Mexican state of Baja California — is interconnected, with a multibillion-dollar supply chain. The region’s logistics facilitate 80% of the trade between California and Mexico, she said.

The nation’s top imports from Mexico in September — worth at least $2 billion for each category — were petroleum and coal products, computer equipment and motor vehicle parts, according to the most recent statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Some specific products that are imported into the U.S. from Mexico through California include the Toyota Tacoma. The truck and its components are made in Baja California and elsewhere in Mexico. “Imagine taxing each component before it goes to Mexico and back,” Zamarripa said. 

She added that the region also leads in producing medical devices, and that the importance of that became apparent during the beginning of the pandemic when “a bunch of companies shut down, not knowing that a little metal piece they were producing was a vital part of a heart monitor, for example.”

Mexico’s economy minister, Marcelo Ebrard, said this week that he would hit the U.S. with tariffs if Trump imposes tariffs, though President Claudia Sheinbaum has seemed more open to negotiations.  

Lance Hastings, chief executive of the California Manufacturers & Technology Association, said he’s well aware of the disruption tariffs can cause. When Trump put tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, aluminum prices rose at least 25%, Hastings said. “I was in the beer industry when it was put in, and we felt it,” he added.

Hastings also said the anxiety around Trump’s proposed tariffs stem in part from the fact that “we’re still trying to get the supply chain back to normal” after the pandemic. Because “California is the gateway to Asia, the state would feel the impact of more tariffs first and more than everybody else,” he said.

Made in the USA

Yet there is a bit of optimism among those who think some tariffs could actually help California manufacturers. 

Sanjiv Malhotra, founder and CEO of Sparkz, a maker of lithium batteries, said tariffs could benefit his company and the rest of the domestic battery industry amid the increasing popularity of electric vehicles. 

Sparkz, which will get its materials from West Virginia and make batteries at a plant in Sacramento, “is all U.S.-sourced. Nothing is coming in from China,” Malhotra said.

During his campaign, Trump indicated he would try to roll back emission-reduction rules and said he would oppose banning gas-powered vehicles. But Malhotra, who served in the U.S. Energy Department under the first Trump administration, said that as demand for lithium batteries grows, he believes Trump’s incoming administration will understand that they “need to be made here in the U.S. so we are not dependent on China for batteries.”

Kate Gordon, CEO of California Forward, a nonprofit organization that focuses on the state’s economy, said that while it’s important to get back some of “what we’ve lost over the past couple of decades” — the nation once led in solar panels — it “needs to happen deliberately and with attention to where we’re really competitive.”

“What would be terrible would be tariffs on things where we’re no longer competitive, like parts of the solar supply chain, which have been held by China for a long time,” she said. All that would do is drive up prices, Gordon said.

Americans may say they want things to be made in the USA, but they also don’t want to pay higher prices for them, said Derek Guy, a menswear writer based in San Francisco who has covered the clothing industry for more than a decade. A few years ago, Guy wrote about American Apparel, under new ownership, offering U.S. consumers the option of paying a little bit more for clothing made here vs. similar pieces made overseas. 

“Even based on a few dollars, when someone wasn’t looking over (their) shoulder, people chose the foreign version,” Guy said. 

“A lot of manufacturing in the U.S. has long shifted toward the higher-end,” Guy said. “The kind of cheaper clothes we’re talking about (what most Americans buy) are made elsewhere.” Tariffs would raise those prices.

The price of almonds

California’s top agricultural exports include almonds, wine, dairy products, pistachios and other nuts.

During Trump’s first term as China imposed retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., California exports of wine, walnuts, oranges and table grapes to China fell, according to the University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics.

In addition, almond prices sank, with the foundation’s researchers saying prices fell from $2.50 a pound to $1.40 a pound in 2018. That had a negative impact on an industry that generates $4 billion to $5 billion a year and employs about 110,000 people, according to the website of lobbying group Almond Alliance. 

Amanda Russell, a spokesperson for the Almond Alliance, said in an emailed statement: “In previous trade negotiations, President Trump demonstrated a commitment to supporting agriculture, and we are optimistic about continuing this partnership to address the challenges and opportunities facing our growers and stakeholders.”

Besides tariffs, another likely action by Trump that could affect the state’s agriculture industry is mass deportations — a threat that has immigrants and advocates on edge

“I can’t see any benefit to California if he goes through with mass deportation,” said Levy, the economist in Silicon Valley. “Even the threat of deportation will affect the labor pool.”





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International universities are changing with their style of operation, mode of teaching and learning operations. This change is noticeable rapidly in India and also in international contexts due to healthy and innovative methods, educational strategies, and nomenclature throughout the world. Technologies are changing rapidly, including ICT. Different subjects are developed in the fields of IT and computing with the interaction or applications to other fields, viz. health informatics, bio informatics, agriculture informatics, and so on. Agricultural informatics is an interdisciplinary subject dedicated to combining information technology and information science utilisation in agricultural sciences. The digital agriculture is powered by agriculture informatics practice. For teaching, research and development of any subject educational methods is considered as important and various educational programs are there in this regard viz. Bachelor of Education, Master of Education, PhD in Education, etc. Degrees are also available to deal with the subjects and agricultural informatics should not be an exception of this. In this context, Doctor of Education (EdD or DEd) is an emerging degree having features of skill sets, courses and research work. This paper proposed on EdD program with agricultural informatics specialisation for improving healthy agriculture system. Here, a proposed model core curriculum is also presented.




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Aim/Purpose: This study aimed to examine the relationships among compatibility, relative advantage, complexity, IT Infrastructure, security, top Management Support, financial Support, information Policies, employee engagement, customer pressure, competitive pressure, information integrity, information sharing, attitude toward adopting technology factors, and CRM adoption Background: Customer relationship management (CRM) refers to the use of the process, information, technology, and people for the management of the interactions between the organization and its customers. Therefore, there is a need for SMEs to implement CRM practices in their businesses for competitive advantage. However, in developing nations, the adoption rate of such practices remains low. This low rate may be attributed to the lack of important factors that guide CRM adoption, and as such, the present study attempts to investigate the factors affecting CRM adoption in Palestinian SMEs. This paper used the Diffusion of Innovation Theory (DOI), Resource-Based View (RBV), and Technology, Organization, and Environment Framework (TOE) framework to identify the determinant factors from the technological, organizational, environmental, and information culture perspectives. Methodology: This study uses a quantitative approach to investigate the relationships between the variables. A questionnaire was designed to collect data from 420 SMEs in Palestine. 331respondents completed and returned the survey. The Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) approach was used to assess both the measurement and structural models. Contribution: This study contributes to both theory and practitioners by providing insights into factors that affect CRM adoption in Palestinian SMEs, which did not explore before. Future research suggestions are also provided. Findings: The results of the study prove that the adoption of CRM depends on compatibility (CMP), security (SEC), top management support (TMS), information policies (INP), financial resources (FR), employee engagement (EEN), competitive pressure (COP), customers pressure (CUP), attitude toward adopting technology (ATA), information integrity (INI), and information sharing (INS). Surprisingly, complexity (CMX), IT infrastructure (ITI), and relative advantage (RLA) do not play any role in CRM adoption in Palestine. Recommendations for Practitioners: This study provides practitioners with the important factors for CRM adoption upon its successful implementation in the context of Palestinian SMEs. Recommendation for Researchers: Our findings may be used to conduct further studies about compatibility, security, top management support, information policies, financial resources, employee engagement, competitive pressure, customers pressure, attitude toward adopting technology, information integrity, information sharing factors, and CRM adoption by using different countries, procedure, and context. Impact on Society: The proposed framework provides insights for SMEs which have significant effects for research and practice to help facilitate the adoption of CRM Future Research: The findings may also be compared to other studies conducted in different contexts and provide deeper insights into the influence of the examined contexts on the employees’ intention toward CRM adoption in banking and universities. It would be fruitful to test whether the results hold true in developed and developing countries.




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The Effect of IT Integration on Supply Chain Agility Towards Market Performance (A Proposed Study)

Aim/Purpose : An important objective of any firm is escalation of its performance and the achievement of competitive advantages. Supply chain agility plays a prominent role to enhance the level of firm’s performance. Moreover, information technology (IT) plays a foundational role in supply chain management practices. Hence, this study proposes the relationship between IT integration as the competency of IT and firm’s market performance both directly and through mediating role of supply chain agility. Background: Many studies have been done to date on the impact of supply chain agility on overall firm’s performance. However, the effect of an agile supply chain on firm’s market performance per se needs to be studied. Furthermore, there is a gap in the literature about the effect of IT competency such as IT integration on firm’s market performance both directly and through mediating role of supply chain agility. Recommendation for Researchers: The first direction this study gives to researchers is to consider the different factors which have significant effect on the agility of supply chain, particularly the IT related ones. The second direction is about the study on the effect of IT competencies and supply chain agility on each category of firm’s performance separately instead of considering it as a one construct. Impact on Society : Although this is a conceptual study, it can highlight the importance of IT competency not only in our daily life, but also in our businesses and industries. Future Research: This study only proposes some relationships based on theory and literature. Future researchers can test these proposed relationships in different contexts and compare the results. Furthermore, this study proposes the relationships for large manufacturing sector in developing countries. The model could be tested for SMEs as well. In addition, the proposed theoretical model in this study might be tested in both developing as well as developed countries to compare the results which will be contributed to the body of knowledge.




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KPDN to call mamak restaurant operators over proposed food price hike

SUBANG JAYA: The Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Ministry (KPDN) will summon the Johor Indian Muslim Entrepreneurs Association tomorrow to seek clarification on its proposal to raise food prices by five per cent starting next year.

Minister Datuk Armizan Mohd Ali said KPDN had issued a notice to the association under Section 21 of the Price Control and Anti-Profiteering Act 2011, requiring an explanation for the proposed price increase.

“Since this association has only just made the announcement for next year, we are taking proactive steps to prevent anyone from taking advantage of the situation.

“This notice is to summon the association to provide an explanation for their announcement regarding the price increase,” he told reporters after the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on price data sharing between KPDN, Mydin, and Redtick here today.

According to media reports, about 300 mamak restaurant operators in Johor expressed concerns about rising operating costs, with the implementation of the minimum wage next year expected to further increase expenses.

As a result, Indian Muslim restaurant operators are expected to raise food prices by at least five per cent at their premises from next year.

Elaborating, Armizan cited an example from OPS Kesan 2.0, where the ministry had taken action against those attempting to take advantage of the implementation of targeted diesel subsidies and the sales and service tax (SST) hike.

“Some parties announced a price increase, but after being summoned and asked to explain, it was found that their reasons were unfounded.

“For instance, the construction sector claimed that the price increase was due to the implementation of the targeted diesel subsidies, even though it is not eligible to use subsidised diesel,” he said.

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