ecb

ECB's de Guindos: All indicators on core inflation pointing to right direction

  • Inflation has come down quite a lot
  • Recent data on prices are heading towards our 2% goal
  • If inflation converges towards our goal, then monetary policy will respond accordingly

This just reaffirms their current stance and market pricing for a rate cut in December. The question now is, how much will the ECB move by? The odds of a 25 bps rate cut are at ~63% with the remainder pinned to a 50 bps move instead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.




ecb

Startups Can Raise $3 Mn Via ECBs Annually: RBI

The Reserve Bank today permitted startups to raise external commercial borrowings (ECBs) of up to USD 3 million in a financial year, a move aimed at boosting innovation and promoting job creation.




ecb

Arizpe Joins Bayer’s ECB Network

Bayer’s EcoCommercial Building Network, dedicated to bringing together varied disciplines in the pursuit of high-performance buildings, has expanded its expertise in the public sector for governmental and institutional projects.




ecb

NAC ECB Classic and ECB 75 Crack Isolation Membranes Protect Against Structural Movement

ECB Classic and ECB 75 are self-adhering, sheet-applied elastomeric membranes designed for use under floor surfaces that require protection from structural movement.




ecb

ECB's Rehn: The direction of our policy moves is clear

  • The pace of the moves depends on the data
  • We are data dependent but not data point dependent
  • Growth outlook has deteriorated due to manufacturing sector
  • If disinflation stays on track, it would make a case for further rate cuts
  • We could be leaving restrictive territory in the spring of 2025
  • The last thing we need now is yet another trade war
  • Tariffs impact will be medium-to-long term
  • Protectionism by definition is inflationary

The remarks are as you would expect from the ECB at this current stage. But they are already starting to recognise the potential impact of Trump tariffs and that's a warning signal to the outlook for next year I guess.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.




ecb

ECB's Rehn: Rate cuts will depend on our overall assessment at each meeting

  • Euro area growth is projected to be sluggish
  • Sees downside risks to growth
  • Waiting on December projections for a better picture of where we stand

So far, he's not saying anything to jolt market pricing. And that's the other main consideration for any of their communications before making policy decisions. As such, a 25 bps rate cut in December remains the likeliest option at this stage. EUR/USD remains down 0.2% on the day at 1.0626 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.




ecb

ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank's 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate

Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) terminal rate, lowering its central-case projection from 2.25% to 1.50%. The bank now anticipates the ECB’s policy rate will dip slightly below the neutral rate by the end of 2025, rather than returning to neutral by mid-year as previously expected.

This shift in outlook is driven by several factors, including the potential for new tariffs from a Trump administration, which would likely impact trade, along with weaker macroeconomic performance in Europe and the increasing risk of inflation falling below target.

According to Deutsche Bank, the uncertainty surrounding these dynamics is considerable, especially given the unclear timing and effects of U.S. tariffs and potential European responses. Reflecting this uncertainty, the bank has outlined a broad target range of 1.00% to 1.75% for the ECB’s terminal rate.

Deutsche Bank notes that the terminal rate’s trajectory and ultimate level will depend on key influences such as:

  1. European fiscal policy,
  2. the economic health of Germany,
  3. developments in China,
  4. and fluctuations in oil prices.

The bank further suggests that the global economy may be entering a new phase, with Europe potentially experiencing increasingly divergent economic conditions compared to the U.S.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.




ecb

ECB's Villeroy says to expect more rate cuts

  • Expects inflation to moderate in France
  • Expects French unemployment rate to go up to around 8% before falling back

He is speaking somewhat in his capacity as Bank of France governor here. And the remarks aren't anything that stand out. As things stand, traders have fully priced in a rate cut for December. The odds of a 25 bps move are at ~68% with the remainder tied to a 50 bps rate cut.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.




ecb

ECB's Nagel: Core inflation rate is still quite high

  • There are still noticeable price pressures, especially in services sector
  • Trump's tariffs may cause German economy to contract
  • If tariffs come into effect, it could cost Germany 1% in economic output

And therein lies the dilemma for the ECB heading into next year I guess. The good news is that the disinflation process is still progressing, albeit with a few bumps along the way. All else being equal, the argument for further rate cuts should hold heading into 2025.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.




ecb

ECB's Villeroy: More rate cuts as inflation moderates

Member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated on Wednesday that more interest rate cuts could be on the horizon, noting ...




ecb

More ECB rate cuts expected

More European Central Bank interest rate cuts are coming and the deposit rate could hit the so-called neutral level in the first half of next year, Finnish central bank chief Olli Rehn said on Tuesday. The ECB has already cut rates three times this year as prices have fallen and further cuts at each of […]




ecb

What Option Prices tell us about the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies [electronic journal].




ecb

Extracting Implicit Country Weights in ECB's Monetary Policy [electronic journal].




ecb

ECB interventions in distressed sovereign debt markets: The case of Greek bonds [electronic journal].




ecb

Demystifying ECBs

India Inc must tap foreign funds with caution




ecb

The ECB is deluding itself over German court ruling

A smart response would be for the EU to address the problems of the eurozone head on




ecb

ECB brings back memories of Rashid foxing Kohli and Rahul




ecb

Radlett Cricket Club groundsman Nick Searle receives ECB Groundsman of the Year commendation

Radlett Cricket Club head groundsman Nick Searle has received a commendation in this year’s annual ECB Groundsman of the Year Awards.





ecb

Markets seesaw after ECB unveils sweeping stimulus package: as it happened





ecb

Covid-19 outbreak: ECB unveils stimulus boost to overcome virus shock

Covid-19 outbreak: ECB unveils stimulus boost to overcome virus shock





ecb

German court's ECB bond-buy ruling hits southern European bonds

The decision did not apply to the ECB's PEPP coronavirus pandemic-fighting programme.




ecb

Germany's Top Court Gives ECB 3-month Ultimatum To Explain Govt Bond Purchases

Germany's top court on Tuesday ruled against the European Central Bank's bond purchases and gave the bank three months to explain how the scheme can be justified.




ecb

ECB Policymakers Say 'More Determined' To Support Eurozone

European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos and Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said separately on Thursday that the central bank was more determined to support the euro area economy during crisis periods and the bank stands ready to adjust all tools at its disposal, just days after the top German court ruled that the bank's government debt purchases were in violation of its mandate.




ecb

ECB Cancel Player Contracts For The Hundred

The England and Wales Cricket Board [ECB] has cancelled contracts of the players — including Bermudian cricketer Delray Rawlins — who were due to participate in the inaugural edition of ‘The Hundred’ which was pushed to next year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The new 100-balls-per-side format, to be played by eight teams in separate […]

(Click to read the full article)




ecb

Interview with Former ECB Vice President Vitor Constâncio

Vitor Constâncio spent eight years as the vice president of the European Central Bank. In an interview, he explains why not him or outgoing ECB head Mario Draghi are to blame for negative interest rates in the eurozone.




ecb

EU court hits back at German ruling on ECB support

The European Union's top court has said it alone has the power to decide whether EU bodies are breaching the bloc's rules, in a rebuke to Germany's highest court, which this week rejected its judgment approving the ECB's trillion-euro bond purchases.




ecb

ECB announce £61m aid package amid fears cricket summer could be wiped out by coronavirus



The ECB has announced a financial package to help cricket clubs amid the coronavirus crisis.




ecb

Women's cricket future in England needs safeguarding, says ECB's Clare Connor

The ECB intends for women to play international and domestic cricket this summer but is "realistic" about the impact of coronavirus, says Clare Connor.




ecb

ECB could have acted faster on England World Cup win in 2017 - Naomi Dattani

The England and Wales Cricket Board could have been faster to act on England's World Cup win in 2017, says Middlesex captain Naomi Dattani.




ecb

Coronavirus: Why The EU Needs to Unleash The ECB

18 March 2020

Pepijn Bergsen

Research Fellow, Europe Programme
COVID-19 presents the eurozone with an unprecedented economic challenge. So far, the response has been necessary, but not enough.

2020-03-18.jpg

EU President of Council Charles Michel chairs the coronavirus meeting with the leaders of EU member countries via teleconference on March 17, 2020. Photo by EU Council / Pool/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

The measures taken to limit the spread of the coronavirus - in particular social distancing -  come with significant economic costs, as the drop both in demand for goods and services and in supply due to workers being at home sick will create a short-term economic shock not seen in modern times.

Sectors that are usually less affected by regular economic swings such as transport and tourism are being confronted with an almost total collapse in demand. In the airline sector, companies are warning they might only be able to hold out for a few months more.

Building on the calls to provide income support to all citizens and shore up businesses, European leaders should now be giving explicit permission to the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide whatever financial support is needed.

Although political leaders have responded to the economic threat, the measures announced across the continent have mainly been to support businesses. The crisis is broader and deeper than the current response.

Support for weaker governments

The ECB already reacted to COVID-19 by announcing measures to support the banking system, which is important to guarantee the continuity of the European financial system and to ensure financially weaker European governments do not have to confront a failing banking system as well.

Although government-subsidised reduced working hours and sick pay are a solution for many businesses and workers, crucially they are not for those working on temporary contracts or the self-employed. They need direct income support.

This might come down to instituting something that looks like a universal basic income (UBI), and ensuring money keeps flowing through the economy as much as possible to help avoid a cascade of defaults and significant long-term damage.

But while this is likely to be the most effective remedy to limit the medium-term impact on the economy, it is particularly costly. Just as an indication, total compensation of employees was on average around €470bn per month in the eurozone last year.

Attempting to target payments using existing welfare payment channels would reduce costs, but is difficult to implement and runs the risk of many households and businesses in need missing out.

The increase in spending and lost revenue associated with these support measures dwarf the fiscal response to the 2008-09 financial crisis. The eurozone economy could contract by close to 10% this year and budget deficits are likely be in double digits throughout the bloc.

The European Commission has already stated member states are free to spend whatever is necessary to combat the crisis, which is not surprising given the Stability and Growth Pact - which includes the fiscal rules - allows for such eventualities.

Several eurozone countries do probably have the fiscal space to deal with this. Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands have run several years of balanced budgets recently and significantly decreased their debt levels. For countries such as Italy, and even France, it is a different story and the combination of much higher spending and a collapse in tax revenue is more likely to lead to questions in the market over the sustainability of their debt levels. In order to avoid this, the Covid-19 response must be financed collectively.

The Eurogroup could decide to use the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to provide states with the funds, while suitably ditching the political conditionality that came with previous bailout. But the ESM currently has €410bn in remaining lending capacity, which is unlikely to be enough and difficult to rapidly increase.

So this leaves the ECB to pick up the tab of national governments’ increase in spending, as the only institution with effectively unlimited monetary firepower. But a collective EU response is complicated by the common currency, and particularly by the role of the ECB.

The ECB can’t just do whatever it likes and is limited more than other major central banks in its room for manoeuvre. It does have a programme to buy government bonds but this relies on countries agreeing to a rescue programme within the context of the ESM, with all the resulting political difficulties.

There are two main ways that the ECB could finance the response to the crisis. First, it could buy up more or all bonds issued by the member states. A first step in this direction would be to scrap the limits on the bonds it can buy. Through self-imposed rules, the ECB can only buy up to a third of every country’s outstanding public debt. There are good reasons for this in normal times, but these are not normal times. With the political blessing of the European Council, the Eurosystem of central banks could then start buying bonds issued by governments to finance whatever expenditure they deem necessary to combat the crisis.

Secondly, essentially give governments an overdraft with the ECB or the national central banks. Although a central bank lending directly to governments is outlawed by the European treaties, the COVID-19 crisis means these rules should be temporarily suspended by the European Council.

Back in 2012, the then president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, proclaimed the ECB would do whatever it takes, within its mandate, to save the euro, which was widely seen as a crucial step towards solving the eurozone crisis. The time is now right for eurozone political leaders to explicitly tell the ECB that together they can do whatever it takes to save the eurozone economy through direct support for businesses and households.




ecb

Coronavirus: Why The EU Needs to Unleash The ECB

18 March 2020

Pepijn Bergsen

Research Fellow, Europe Programme
COVID-19 presents the eurozone with an unprecedented economic challenge. So far, the response has been necessary, but not enough.

2020-03-18.jpg

EU President of Council Charles Michel chairs the coronavirus meeting with the leaders of EU member countries via teleconference on March 17, 2020. Photo by EU Council / Pool/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

The measures taken to limit the spread of the coronavirus - in particular social distancing -  come with significant economic costs, as the drop both in demand for goods and services and in supply due to workers being at home sick will create a short-term economic shock not seen in modern times.

Sectors that are usually less affected by regular economic swings such as transport and tourism are being confronted with an almost total collapse in demand. In the airline sector, companies are warning they might only be able to hold out for a few months more.

Building on the calls to provide income support to all citizens and shore up businesses, European leaders should now be giving explicit permission to the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide whatever financial support is needed.

Although political leaders have responded to the economic threat, the measures announced across the continent have mainly been to support businesses. The crisis is broader and deeper than the current response.

Support for weaker governments

The ECB already reacted to COVID-19 by announcing measures to support the banking system, which is important to guarantee the continuity of the European financial system and to ensure financially weaker European governments do not have to confront a failing banking system as well.

Although government-subsidised reduced working hours and sick pay are a solution for many businesses and workers, crucially they are not for those working on temporary contracts or the self-employed. They need direct income support.

This might come down to instituting something that looks like a universal basic income (UBI), and ensuring money keeps flowing through the economy as much as possible to help avoid a cascade of defaults and significant long-term damage.

But while this is likely to be the most effective remedy to limit the medium-term impact on the economy, it is particularly costly. Just as an indication, total compensation of employees was on average around €470bn per month in the eurozone last year.

Attempting to target payments using existing welfare payment channels would reduce costs, but is difficult to implement and runs the risk of many households and businesses in need missing out.

The increase in spending and lost revenue associated with these support measures dwarf the fiscal response to the 2008-09 financial crisis. The eurozone economy could contract by close to 10% this year and budget deficits are likely be in double digits throughout the bloc.

The European Commission has already stated member states are free to spend whatever is necessary to combat the crisis, which is not surprising given the Stability and Growth Pact - which includes the fiscal rules - allows for such eventualities.

Several eurozone countries do probably have the fiscal space to deal with this. Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands have run several years of balanced budgets recently and significantly decreased their debt levels. For countries such as Italy, and even France, it is a different story and the combination of much higher spending and a collapse in tax revenue is more likely to lead to questions in the market over the sustainability of their debt levels. In order to avoid this, the Covid-19 response must be financed collectively.

The Eurogroup could decide to use the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to provide states with the funds, while suitably ditching the political conditionality that came with previous bailout. But the ESM currently has €410bn in remaining lending capacity, which is unlikely to be enough and difficult to rapidly increase.

So this leaves the ECB to pick up the tab of national governments’ increase in spending, as the only institution with effectively unlimited monetary firepower. But a collective EU response is complicated by the common currency, and particularly by the role of the ECB.

The ECB can’t just do whatever it likes and is limited more than other major central banks in its room for manoeuvre. It does have a programme to buy government bonds but this relies on countries agreeing to a rescue programme within the context of the ESM, with all the resulting political difficulties.

There are two main ways that the ECB could finance the response to the crisis. First, it could buy up more or all bonds issued by the member states. A first step in this direction would be to scrap the limits on the bonds it can buy. Through self-imposed rules, the ECB can only buy up to a third of every country’s outstanding public debt. There are good reasons for this in normal times, but these are not normal times. With the political blessing of the European Council, the Eurosystem of central banks could then start buying bonds issued by governments to finance whatever expenditure they deem necessary to combat the crisis.

Secondly, essentially give governments an overdraft with the ECB or the national central banks. Although a central bank lending directly to governments is outlawed by the European treaties, the COVID-19 crisis means these rules should be temporarily suspended by the European Council.

Back in 2012, the then president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, proclaimed the ECB would do whatever it takes, within its mandate, to save the euro, which was widely seen as a crucial step towards solving the eurozone crisis. The time is now right for eurozone political leaders to explicitly tell the ECB that together they can do whatever it takes to save the eurozone economy through direct support for businesses and households.




ecb

Coronavirus: Why The EU Needs to Unleash The ECB

18 March 2020

Pepijn Bergsen

Research Fellow, Europe Programme
COVID-19 presents the eurozone with an unprecedented economic challenge. So far, the response has been necessary, but not enough.

2020-03-18.jpg

EU President of Council Charles Michel chairs the coronavirus meeting with the leaders of EU member countries via teleconference on March 17, 2020. Photo by EU Council / Pool/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

The measures taken to limit the spread of the coronavirus - in particular social distancing -  come with significant economic costs, as the drop both in demand for goods and services and in supply due to workers being at home sick will create a short-term economic shock not seen in modern times.

Sectors that are usually less affected by regular economic swings such as transport and tourism are being confronted with an almost total collapse in demand. In the airline sector, companies are warning they might only be able to hold out for a few months more.

Building on the calls to provide income support to all citizens and shore up businesses, European leaders should now be giving explicit permission to the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide whatever financial support is needed.

Although political leaders have responded to the economic threat, the measures announced across the continent have mainly been to support businesses. The crisis is broader and deeper than the current response.

Support for weaker governments

The ECB already reacted to COVID-19 by announcing measures to support the banking system, which is important to guarantee the continuity of the European financial system and to ensure financially weaker European governments do not have to confront a failing banking system as well.

Although government-subsidised reduced working hours and sick pay are a solution for many businesses and workers, crucially they are not for those working on temporary contracts or the self-employed. They need direct income support.

This might come down to instituting something that looks like a universal basic income (UBI), and ensuring money keeps flowing through the economy as much as possible to help avoid a cascade of defaults and significant long-term damage.

But while this is likely to be the most effective remedy to limit the medium-term impact on the economy, it is particularly costly. Just as an indication, total compensation of employees was on average around €470bn per month in the eurozone last year.

Attempting to target payments using existing welfare payment channels would reduce costs, but is difficult to implement and runs the risk of many households and businesses in need missing out.

The increase in spending and lost revenue associated with these support measures dwarf the fiscal response to the 2008-09 financial crisis. The eurozone economy could contract by close to 10% this year and budget deficits are likely be in double digits throughout the bloc.

The European Commission has already stated member states are free to spend whatever is necessary to combat the crisis, which is not surprising given the Stability and Growth Pact - which includes the fiscal rules - allows for such eventualities.

Several eurozone countries do probably have the fiscal space to deal with this. Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands have run several years of balanced budgets recently and significantly decreased their debt levels. For countries such as Italy, and even France, it is a different story and the combination of much higher spending and a collapse in tax revenue is more likely to lead to questions in the market over the sustainability of their debt levels. In order to avoid this, the Covid-19 response must be financed collectively.

The Eurogroup could decide to use the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to provide states with the funds, while suitably ditching the political conditionality that came with previous bailout. But the ESM currently has €410bn in remaining lending capacity, which is unlikely to be enough and difficult to rapidly increase.

So this leaves the ECB to pick up the tab of national governments’ increase in spending, as the only institution with effectively unlimited monetary firepower. But a collective EU response is complicated by the common currency, and particularly by the role of the ECB.

The ECB can’t just do whatever it likes and is limited more than other major central banks in its room for manoeuvre. It does have a programme to buy government bonds but this relies on countries agreeing to a rescue programme within the context of the ESM, with all the resulting political difficulties.

There are two main ways that the ECB could finance the response to the crisis. First, it could buy up more or all bonds issued by the member states. A first step in this direction would be to scrap the limits on the bonds it can buy. Through self-imposed rules, the ECB can only buy up to a third of every country’s outstanding public debt. There are good reasons for this in normal times, but these are not normal times. With the political blessing of the European Council, the Eurosystem of central banks could then start buying bonds issued by governments to finance whatever expenditure they deem necessary to combat the crisis.

Secondly, essentially give governments an overdraft with the ECB or the national central banks. Although a central bank lending directly to governments is outlawed by the European treaties, the COVID-19 crisis means these rules should be temporarily suspended by the European Council.

Back in 2012, the then president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, proclaimed the ECB would do whatever it takes, within its mandate, to save the euro, which was widely seen as a crucial step towards solving the eurozone crisis. The time is now right for eurozone political leaders to explicitly tell the ECB that together they can do whatever it takes to save the eurozone economy through direct support for businesses and households.




ecb

Coronavirus: Why The EU Needs to Unleash The ECB

18 March 2020

Pepijn Bergsen

Research Fellow, Europe Programme
COVID-19 presents the eurozone with an unprecedented economic challenge. So far, the response has been necessary, but not enough.

2020-03-18.jpg

EU President of Council Charles Michel chairs the coronavirus meeting with the leaders of EU member countries via teleconference on March 17, 2020. Photo by EU Council / Pool/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

The measures taken to limit the spread of the coronavirus - in particular social distancing -  come with significant economic costs, as the drop both in demand for goods and services and in supply due to workers being at home sick will create a short-term economic shock not seen in modern times.

Sectors that are usually less affected by regular economic swings such as transport and tourism are being confronted with an almost total collapse in demand. In the airline sector, companies are warning they might only be able to hold out for a few months more.

Building on the calls to provide income support to all citizens and shore up businesses, European leaders should now be giving explicit permission to the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide whatever financial support is needed.

Although political leaders have responded to the economic threat, the measures announced across the continent have mainly been to support businesses. The crisis is broader and deeper than the current response.

Support for weaker governments

The ECB already reacted to COVID-19 by announcing measures to support the banking system, which is important to guarantee the continuity of the European financial system and to ensure financially weaker European governments do not have to confront a failing banking system as well.

Although government-subsidised reduced working hours and sick pay are a solution for many businesses and workers, crucially they are not for those working on temporary contracts or the self-employed. They need direct income support.

This might come down to instituting something that looks like a universal basic income (UBI), and ensuring money keeps flowing through the economy as much as possible to help avoid a cascade of defaults and significant long-term damage.

But while this is likely to be the most effective remedy to limit the medium-term impact on the economy, it is particularly costly. Just as an indication, total compensation of employees was on average around €470bn per month in the eurozone last year.

Attempting to target payments using existing welfare payment channels would reduce costs, but is difficult to implement and runs the risk of many households and businesses in need missing out.

The increase in spending and lost revenue associated with these support measures dwarf the fiscal response to the 2008-09 financial crisis. The eurozone economy could contract by close to 10% this year and budget deficits are likely be in double digits throughout the bloc.

The European Commission has already stated member states are free to spend whatever is necessary to combat the crisis, which is not surprising given the Stability and Growth Pact - which includes the fiscal rules - allows for such eventualities.

Several eurozone countries do probably have the fiscal space to deal with this. Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands have run several years of balanced budgets recently and significantly decreased their debt levels. For countries such as Italy, and even France, it is a different story and the combination of much higher spending and a collapse in tax revenue is more likely to lead to questions in the market over the sustainability of their debt levels. In order to avoid this, the Covid-19 response must be financed collectively.

The Eurogroup could decide to use the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to provide states with the funds, while suitably ditching the political conditionality that came with previous bailout. But the ESM currently has €410bn in remaining lending capacity, which is unlikely to be enough and difficult to rapidly increase.

So this leaves the ECB to pick up the tab of national governments’ increase in spending, as the only institution with effectively unlimited monetary firepower. But a collective EU response is complicated by the common currency, and particularly by the role of the ECB.

The ECB can’t just do whatever it likes and is limited more than other major central banks in its room for manoeuvre. It does have a programme to buy government bonds but this relies on countries agreeing to a rescue programme within the context of the ESM, with all the resulting political difficulties.

There are two main ways that the ECB could finance the response to the crisis. First, it could buy up more or all bonds issued by the member states. A first step in this direction would be to scrap the limits on the bonds it can buy. Through self-imposed rules, the ECB can only buy up to a third of every country’s outstanding public debt. There are good reasons for this in normal times, but these are not normal times. With the political blessing of the European Council, the Eurosystem of central banks could then start buying bonds issued by governments to finance whatever expenditure they deem necessary to combat the crisis.

Secondly, essentially give governments an overdraft with the ECB or the national central banks. Although a central bank lending directly to governments is outlawed by the European treaties, the COVID-19 crisis means these rules should be temporarily suspended by the European Council.

Back in 2012, the then president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, proclaimed the ECB would do whatever it takes, within its mandate, to save the euro, which was widely seen as a crucial step towards solving the eurozone crisis. The time is now right for eurozone political leaders to explicitly tell the ECB that together they can do whatever it takes to save the eurozone economy through direct support for businesses and households.




ecb

Coronavirus: Why The EU Needs to Unleash The ECB

18 March 2020

Pepijn Bergsen

Research Fellow, Europe Programme
COVID-19 presents the eurozone with an unprecedented economic challenge. So far, the response has been necessary, but not enough.

2020-03-18.jpg

EU President of Council Charles Michel chairs the coronavirus meeting with the leaders of EU member countries via teleconference on March 17, 2020. Photo by EU Council / Pool/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

The measures taken to limit the spread of the coronavirus - in particular social distancing -  come with significant economic costs, as the drop both in demand for goods and services and in supply due to workers being at home sick will create a short-term economic shock not seen in modern times.

Sectors that are usually less affected by regular economic swings such as transport and tourism are being confronted with an almost total collapse in demand. In the airline sector, companies are warning they might only be able to hold out for a few months more.

Building on the calls to provide income support to all citizens and shore up businesses, European leaders should now be giving explicit permission to the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide whatever financial support is needed.

Although political leaders have responded to the economic threat, the measures announced across the continent have mainly been to support businesses. The crisis is broader and deeper than the current response.

Support for weaker governments

The ECB already reacted to COVID-19 by announcing measures to support the banking system, which is important to guarantee the continuity of the European financial system and to ensure financially weaker European governments do not have to confront a failing banking system as well.

Although government-subsidised reduced working hours and sick pay are a solution for many businesses and workers, crucially they are not for those working on temporary contracts or the self-employed. They need direct income support.

This might come down to instituting something that looks like a universal basic income (UBI), and ensuring money keeps flowing through the economy as much as possible to help avoid a cascade of defaults and significant long-term damage.

But while this is likely to be the most effective remedy to limit the medium-term impact on the economy, it is particularly costly. Just as an indication, total compensation of employees was on average around €470bn per month in the eurozone last year.

Attempting to target payments using existing welfare payment channels would reduce costs, but is difficult to implement and runs the risk of many households and businesses in need missing out.

The increase in spending and lost revenue associated with these support measures dwarf the fiscal response to the 2008-09 financial crisis. The eurozone economy could contract by close to 10% this year and budget deficits are likely be in double digits throughout the bloc.

The European Commission has already stated member states are free to spend whatever is necessary to combat the crisis, which is not surprising given the Stability and Growth Pact - which includes the fiscal rules - allows for such eventualities.

Several eurozone countries do probably have the fiscal space to deal with this. Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands have run several years of balanced budgets recently and significantly decreased their debt levels. For countries such as Italy, and even France, it is a different story and the combination of much higher spending and a collapse in tax revenue is more likely to lead to questions in the market over the sustainability of their debt levels. In order to avoid this, the Covid-19 response must be financed collectively.

The Eurogroup could decide to use the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to provide states with the funds, while suitably ditching the political conditionality that came with previous bailout. But the ESM currently has €410bn in remaining lending capacity, which is unlikely to be enough and difficult to rapidly increase.

So this leaves the ECB to pick up the tab of national governments’ increase in spending, as the only institution with effectively unlimited monetary firepower. But a collective EU response is complicated by the common currency, and particularly by the role of the ECB.

The ECB can’t just do whatever it likes and is limited more than other major central banks in its room for manoeuvre. It does have a programme to buy government bonds but this relies on countries agreeing to a rescue programme within the context of the ESM, with all the resulting political difficulties.

There are two main ways that the ECB could finance the response to the crisis. First, it could buy up more or all bonds issued by the member states. A first step in this direction would be to scrap the limits on the bonds it can buy. Through self-imposed rules, the ECB can only buy up to a third of every country’s outstanding public debt. There are good reasons for this in normal times, but these are not normal times. With the political blessing of the European Council, the Eurosystem of central banks could then start buying bonds issued by governments to finance whatever expenditure they deem necessary to combat the crisis.

Secondly, essentially give governments an overdraft with the ECB or the national central banks. Although a central bank lending directly to governments is outlawed by the European treaties, the COVID-19 crisis means these rules should be temporarily suspended by the European Council.

Back in 2012, the then president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, proclaimed the ECB would do whatever it takes, within its mandate, to save the euro, which was widely seen as a crucial step towards solving the eurozone crisis. The time is now right for eurozone political leaders to explicitly tell the ECB that together they can do whatever it takes to save the eurozone economy through direct support for businesses and households.




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Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement

Introductory statement by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, and Mr Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 30 April 2020.




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The Phillips Curve at the ECB

European Central Bank Working Papers by Fabian Eser, Peter Karadi, Philip R. Lane, Laura Moretti and Chiara Osbat




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"The Best Ball You've Ever Faced?": ECB Asks Kohli, Posts Throwback Video

The ECB took to Twitter to share a throwback video of Virat Kohli's dismissal from India's 2018 tour of England.




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Stocks head for best month on record ahead of ECB

World stocks headed for their best month on record Thursday, as encouraging early results from a COVID-19 treatment trial and expectations of more European Central Bank (ECB) stimulus later in the day helped ease the pain of February and March.




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RBI extends ECB window for Civil Aviation Sector

RBI extends window for External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) for Civil Aviation Sector




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EU's highest court says it 'alone' has jurisdiction over ECB

BRUSSELS: The EU’s highest court on Friday said it alone had legal authority over the European Central Bank, firmly rejecting a German Constitutional Court ruling critical of the bank’s ambitious stimulus policies.The highly unusual intervention came after the German ruling issued...




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The Pseudomonas aeruginosa Lectin LecB Causes Integrin Internalization and Inhibits Epithelial Wound Healing

ABSTRACT

The opportunistic bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa produces the fucose-specific lectin LecB, which has been identified as a virulence factor. LecB has a tetrameric structure with four opposing binding sites and has been shown to act as a cross-linker. Here, we demonstrate that LecB strongly binds to the glycosylated moieties of β1-integrins on the basolateral plasma membrane of epithelial cells and causes rapid integrin endocytosis. Whereas internalized integrins were degraded via a lysosomal pathway, washout of LecB restored integrin cell surface localization, thus indicating a specific and direct action of LecB on integrins to bring about their endocytosis. Interestingly, LecB was able to trigger uptake of active and inactive β1-integrins and also of complete α3β1-integrin–laminin complexes. We provide a mechanistic explanation for this unique endocytic process by showing that LecB has the additional ability to recognize fucose-bearing glycosphingolipids and causes the formation of membrane invaginations on giant unilamellar vesicles. In cells, LecB recruited integrins to these invaginations by cross-linking integrins and glycosphingolipids. In epithelial wound healing assays, LecB specifically cleared integrins from the surface of cells located at the wound edge and blocked cell migration and wound healing in a dose-dependent manner. Moreover, the wild-type P. aeruginosa strain PAO1 was able to loosen cell-substrate adhesion in order to crawl underneath exposed cells, whereas knockout of LecB significantly reduced crawling events. Based on these results, we suggest that LecB has a role in disseminating bacteria along the cell-basement membrane interface.

IMPORTANCE Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a ubiquitous environmental bacterium that is one of the leading causes of nosocomial infections. P. aeruginosa is able to switch between planktonic, intracellular, and biofilm-based lifestyles, which allows it to evade the immune system as well as antibiotic treatment. Hence, alternatives to antibiotic treatment are urgently required to combat P. aeruginosa infections. Lectins, like the fucose-specific LecB, are promising targets, because removal of LecB resulted in decreased virulence in mouse models. Currently, several research groups are developing LecB inhibitors. However, the role of LecB in host-pathogen interactions is not well understood. The significance of our research is in identifying cellular mechanisms of how LecB facilitates P. aeruginosa infection. We introduce LecB as a new member of the list of bacterial molecules that bind integrins and show that P. aeruginosa can move forward underneath attached epithelial cells by loosening cell-basement membrane attachment in a LecB-dependent manner.




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ECB ruling: German court can only check core of domestic constitution, analyst says

Volker Wieland, endowed chair of monetary economics at the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, discusses the impending verdict on whether the ECB's public sector purchase program is legal under German law.




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German court ruling on ECB bond buying 'laughable,' Societe Generale chair says

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, chairman of Societe Generale and former member of the ECB's executive board, discusses the German constitutional court's call for the European Central Bank to justify its bond-buying program.




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ECB has responded well to German court ruling, former ECB vice president says

Vitor Constancio, former vice president of the ECB, discusses the German constitutional court's ruling on the European Central Bank's bond-buying program.




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Is the ECB stimulus program legal? A German court is about to decide

European debt holders are cautiously awaiting a ruling from a German court, which could impact how the ECB faces the ongoing economic crisis.




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German court ruling on ECB purchases is 'laughable,' Societe Generale chair says

Germany's constitutional court threatened to block fresh purchases of German bonds through the European Central Bank's program.




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As eurozone records 3.8% slump ECB chief warns of worse to come

Christine Lagarde says there could be a 15% collapse after record first quarter output fall

The head of the European Central Bank has warned that the eurozone could be on course for a 15% collapse in output in the second quarter as evidence of the economic toll caused by Covid-19 pandemic started to emerge, with France and Italy falling into recession.

After news that the 19-nation monetary union area had contracted a record 3.8% in the first three months of 2020, Christine Lagarde said much worse was possible in the April to June period, when the impact of lockdown restrictions would be most severe.

Related: Eurozone shrinking as Covid-19 lockdowns push Italy and France into recession - business live

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Startups Can Raise $3 Mn Via ECBs Annually: RBI

The Reserve Bank today permitted startups to raise external commercial borrowings (ECBs) of up to USD 3 million in a financial year, a move aimed at boosting innovation and promoting job creation.