social and politics Jointly Robust Prior for Gaussian Stochastic Process in Emulation, Calibration and Variable Selection By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:00 EDT Mengyang Gu. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 877--905.Abstract: Gaussian stochastic process (GaSP) has been widely used in two fundamental problems in uncertainty quantification, namely the emulation and calibration of mathematical models. Some objective priors, such as the reference prior, are studied in the context of emulating (approximating) computationally expensive mathematical models. In this work, we introduce a new class of priors, called the jointly robust prior, for both the emulation and calibration. This prior is designed to maintain various advantages from the reference prior. In emulation, the jointly robust prior has an appropriate tail decay rate as the reference prior, and is computationally simpler than the reference prior in parameter estimation. Moreover, the marginal posterior mode estimation with the jointly robust prior can separate the influential and inert inputs in mathematical models, while the reference prior does not have this property. We establish the posterior propriety for a large class of priors in calibration, including the reference prior and jointly robust prior in general scenarios, but the jointly robust prior is preferred because the calibrated mathematical model typically predicts the reality well. The jointly robust prior is used as the default prior in two new R packages, called “RobustGaSP” and “RobustCalibration”, available on CRAN for emulation and calibration, respectively. Full Article
social and politics Bayesian Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression Based on Pólya-Gamma Mixtures By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:00 EDT Brian Neelon. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 849--875.Abstract: Motivated by a study examining spatiotemporal patterns in inpatient hospitalizations, we propose an efficient Bayesian approach for fitting zero-inflated negative binomial models. To facilitate posterior sampling, we introduce a set of latent variables that are represented as scale mixtures of normals, where the precision terms follow independent Pólya-Gamma distributions. Conditional on the latent variables, inference proceeds via straightforward Gibbs sampling. For fixed-effects models, our approach is comparable to existing methods. However, our model can accommodate more complex data structures, including multivariate and spatiotemporal data, settings in which current approaches often fail due to computational challenges. Using simulation studies, we highlight key features of the method and compare its performance to other estimation procedures. We apply the approach to a spatiotemporal analysis examining the number of annual inpatient admissions among United States veterans with type 2 diabetes. Full Article
social and politics High-Dimensional Confounding Adjustment Using Continuous Spike and Slab Priors By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:00 EDT Joseph Antonelli, Giovanni Parmigiani, Francesca Dominici. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 825--848.Abstract: In observational studies, estimation of a causal effect of a treatment on an outcome relies on proper adjustment for confounding. If the number of the potential confounders ( $p$ ) is larger than the number of observations ( $n$ ), then direct control for all potential confounders is infeasible. Existing approaches for dimension reduction and penalization are generally aimed at predicting the outcome, and are less suited for estimation of causal effects. Under standard penalization approaches (e.g. Lasso), if a variable $X_{j}$ is strongly associated with the treatment $T$ but weakly with the outcome $Y$ , the coefficient $eta_{j}$ will be shrunk towards zero thus leading to confounding bias. Under the assumption of a linear model for the outcome and sparsity, we propose continuous spike and slab priors on the regression coefficients $eta_{j}$ corresponding to the potential confounders $X_{j}$ . Specifically, we introduce a prior distribution that does not heavily shrink to zero the coefficients ( $eta_{j}$ s) of the $X_{j}$ s that are strongly associated with $T$ but weakly associated with $Y$ . We compare our proposed approach to several state of the art methods proposed in the literature. Our proposed approach has the following features: 1) it reduces confounding bias in high dimensional settings; 2) it shrinks towards zero coefficients of instrumental variables; and 3) it achieves good coverages even in small sample sizes. We apply our approach to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data to estimate the causal effects of persistent pesticide exposure on triglyceride levels. Full Article
social and politics Probability Based Independence Sampler for Bayesian Quantitative Learning in Graphical Log-Linear Marginal Models By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:00 EDT Ioannis Ntzoufras, Claudia Tarantola, Monia Lupparelli. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 797--823.Abstract: We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for quantitative learning for graphical log-linear marginal models. These models belong to curved exponential families that are difficult to handle from a Bayesian perspective. The likelihood cannot be analytically expressed as a function of the marginal log-linear interactions, but only in terms of cell counts or probabilities. Posterior distributions cannot be directly obtained, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are needed. Finally, a well-defined model requires parameter values that lead to compatible marginal probabilities. Hence, any MCMC should account for this important restriction. We construct a fully automatic and efficient MCMC strategy for quantitative learning for such models that handles these problems. While the prior is expressed in terms of the marginal log-linear interactions, we build an MCMC algorithm that employs a proposal on the probability parameter space. The corresponding proposal on the marginal log-linear interactions is obtained via parameter transformation. We exploit a conditional conjugate setup to build an efficient proposal on probability parameters. The proposed methodology is illustrated by a simulation study and a real dataset. Full Article
social and politics Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers with Independent Markov Chain Monte Carlo Proposals By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:00 EDT L. F. South, A. N. Pettitt, C. C. Drovandi. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 773--796.Abstract: Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling from the posterior of static Bayesian models are flexible, parallelisable and capable of handling complex targets. However, it is common practice to adopt a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) kernel with a multivariate normal random walk (RW) proposal in the move step, which can be both inefficient and detrimental for exploring challenging posterior distributions. We develop new SMC methods with independent proposals which allow recycling of all candidates generated in the SMC process and are embarrassingly parallelisable. A novel evidence estimator that is easily computed from the output of our independent SMC is proposed. Our independent proposals are constructed via flexible copula-type models calibrated with the population of SMC particles. We demonstrate through several examples that more precise estimates of posterior expectations and the marginal likelihood can be obtained using fewer likelihood evaluations than the more standard RW approach. Full Article
social and politics Stochastic Approximations to the Pitman–Yor Process By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:00 EDT Julyan Arbel, Pierpaolo De Blasi, Igor Prünster. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 753--771.Abstract: In this paper we consider approximations to the popular Pitman–Yor process obtained by truncating the stick-breaking representation. The truncation is determined by a random stopping rule that achieves an almost sure control on the approximation error in total variation distance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the random truncation point as the approximation error $epsilon$ goes to zero in terms of a polynomially tilted positive stable random variable. The practical usefulness and effectiveness of this theoretical result is demonstrated by devising a sampling algorithm to approximate functionals of the $epsilon$ -version of the Pitman–Yor process. Full Article
social and politics Semiparametric Multivariate and Multiple Change-Point Modeling By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:00 EDT Stefano Peluso, Siddhartha Chib, Antonietta Mira. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 727--751.Abstract: We develop a general Bayesian semiparametric change-point model in which separate groups of structural parameters (for example, location and dispersion parameters) can each follow a separate multiple change-point process, driven by time-dependent transition matrices among the latent regimes. The distribution of the observations within regimes is unknown and given by a Dirichlet process mixture prior. The properties of the proposed model are studied theoretically through the analysis of inter-arrival times and of the number of change-points in a given time interval. The prior-posterior analysis by Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques is developed on a forward-backward algorithm for sampling the various regime indicators. Analysis with simulated data under various scenarios and an application to short-term interest rates are used to show the generality and usefulness of the proposed model. Full Article
social and politics Model Criticism in Latent Space By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:00 EDT Sohan Seth, Iain Murray, Christopher K. I. Williams. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 703--725.Abstract: Model criticism is usually carried out by assessing if replicated data generated under the fitted model looks similar to the observed data, see e.g. Gelman, Carlin, Stern, and Rubin (2004, p. 165). This paper presents a method for latent variable models by pulling back the data into the space of latent variables, and carrying out model criticism in that space. Making use of a model's structure enables a more direct assessment of the assumptions made in the prior and likelihood. We demonstrate the method with examples of model criticism in latent space applied to factor analysis, linear dynamical systems and Gaussian processes. Full Article
social and politics Low Information Omnibus (LIO) Priors for Dirichlet Process Mixture Models By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Tue, 11 Jun 2019 04:00 EDT Yushu Shi, Michael Martens, Anjishnu Banerjee, Purushottam Laud. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 677--702.Abstract: Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) models provide flexible modeling for distributions of data as an infinite mixture of distributions from a chosen collection. Specifying priors for these models in individual data contexts can be challenging. In this paper, we introduce a scheme which requires the investigator to specify only simple scaling information. This is used to transform the data to a fixed scale on which a low information prior is constructed. Samples from the posterior with the rescaled data are transformed back for inference on the original scale. The low information prior is selected to provide a wide variety of components for the DPM to generate flexible distributions for the data on the fixed scale. The method can be applied to all DPM models with kernel functions closed under a suitable scaling transformation. Construction of the low information prior, however, is kernel dependent. Using DPM-of-Gaussians and DPM-of-Weibulls models as examples, we show that the method provides accurate estimates of a diverse collection of distributions that includes skewed, multimodal, and highly dispersed members. With the recommended priors, repeated data simulations show performance comparable to that of standard empirical estimates. Finally, we show weak convergence of posteriors with the proposed priors for both kernels considered. Full Article
social and politics A Bayesian Nonparametric Multiple Testing Procedure for Comparing Several Treatments Against a Control By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Fri, 31 May 2019 22:05 EDT Luis Gutiérrez, Andrés F. Barrientos, Jorge González, Daniel Taylor-Rodríguez. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 649--675.Abstract: We propose a Bayesian nonparametric strategy to test for differences between a control group and several treatment regimes. Most of the existing tests for this type of comparison are based on the differences between location parameters. In contrast, our approach identifies differences across the entire distribution, avoids strong modeling assumptions over the distributions for each treatment, and accounts for multiple testing through the prior distribution on the space of hypotheses. The proposal is compared to other commonly used hypothesis testing procedures under simulated scenarios. Two real applications are also analyzed with the proposed methodology. Full Article
social and politics Alleviating Spatial Confounding for Areal Data Problems by Displacing the Geographical Centroids By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Fri, 31 May 2019 22:05 EDT Marcos Oliveira Prates, Renato Martins Assunção, Erica Castilho Rodrigues. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 623--647.Abstract: Spatial confounding between the spatial random effects and fixed effects covariates has been recently discovered and showed that it may bring misleading interpretation to the model results. Techniques to alleviate this problem are based on decomposing the spatial random effect and fitting a restricted spatial regression. In this paper, we propose a different approach: a transformation of the geographic space to ensure that the unobserved spatial random effect added to the regression is orthogonal to the fixed effects covariates. Our approach, named SPOCK, has the additional benefit of providing a fast and simple computational method to estimate the parameters. Also, it does not constrain the distribution class assumed for the spatial error term. A simulation study and real data analyses are presented to better understand the advantages of the new method in comparison with the existing ones. Full Article
social and politics Efficient Acquisition Rules for Model-Based Approximate Bayesian Computation By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Marko Järvenpää, Michael U. Gutmann, Arijus Pleska, Aki Vehtari, Pekka Marttinen. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 595--622.Abstract: Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly. To reduce the computational cost, Bayesian optimisation (BO) and surrogate models such as Gaussian processes have been proposed. Bayesian optimisation enables one to intelligently decide where to evaluate the model next but common BO strategies are not designed for the goal of estimating the posterior distribution. Our paper addresses this gap in the literature. We propose to compute the uncertainty in the ABC posterior density, which is due to a lack of simulations to estimate this quantity accurately, and define a loss function that measures this uncertainty. We then propose to select the next evaluation location to minimise the expected loss. Experiments show that the proposed method often produces the most accurate approximations as compared to common BO strategies. Full Article
social and politics Fast Model-Fitting of Bayesian Variable Selection Regression Using the Iterative Complex Factorization Algorithm By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Quan Zhou, Yongtao Guan. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 573--594.Abstract: Bayesian variable selection regression (BVSR) is able to jointly analyze genome-wide genetic datasets, but the slow computation via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) hampered its wide-spread usage. Here we present a novel iterative method to solve a special class of linear systems, which can increase the speed of the BVSR model-fitting tenfold. The iterative method hinges on the complex factorization of the sum of two matrices and the solution path resides in the complex domain (instead of the real domain). Compared to the Gauss-Seidel method, the complex factorization converges almost instantaneously and its error is several magnitude smaller than that of the Gauss-Seidel method. More importantly, the error is always within the pre-specified precision while the Gauss-Seidel method is not. For large problems with thousands of covariates, the complex factorization is 10–100 times faster than either the Gauss-Seidel method or the direct method via the Cholesky decomposition. In BVSR, one needs to repetitively solve large penalized regression systems whose design matrices only change slightly between adjacent MCMC steps. This slight change in design matrix enables the adaptation of the iterative complex factorization method. The computational innovation will facilitate the wide-spread use of BVSR in reanalyzing genome-wide association datasets. Full Article
social and politics A Bayesian Nonparametric Spiked Process Prior for Dynamic Model Selection By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Alberto Cassese, Weixuan Zhu, Michele Guindani, Marina Vannucci. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 553--572.Abstract: In many applications, investigators monitor processes that vary in space and time, with the goal of identifying temporally persistent and spatially localized departures from a baseline or “normal” behavior. In this manuscript, we consider the monitoring of pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality, to detect influenza outbreaks in the continental United States, and propose a Bayesian nonparametric model selection approach to take into account the spatio-temporal dependence of outbreaks. More specifically, we introduce a zero-inflated conditionally identically distributed species sampling prior which allows borrowing information across time and to assign data to clusters associated to either a null or an alternate process. Spatial dependences are accounted for by means of a Markov random field prior, which allows to inform the selection based on inferences conducted at nearby locations. We show how the proposed modeling framework performs in an application to the P&I mortality data and in a simulation study, and compare with common threshold methods for detecting outbreaks over time, with more recent Markov switching based models, and with spike-and-slab Bayesian nonparametric priors that do not take into account spatio-temporal dependence. Full Article
social and politics Bayes Factor Testing of Multiple Intraclass Correlations By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Joris Mulder, Jean-Paul Fox. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 521--552.Abstract: The intraclass correlation plays a central role in modeling hierarchically structured data, such as educational data, panel data, or group-randomized trial data. It represents relevant information concerning the between-group and within-group variation. Methods for Bayesian hypothesis tests concerning the intraclass correlation are proposed to improve decision making in hierarchical data analysis and to assess the grouping effect across different group categories. Estimation and testing methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient are proposed under a marginal modeling framework where the random effects are integrated out. A class of stretched beta priors is proposed on the intraclass correlations, which is equivalent to shifted $F$ priors for the between groups variances. Through a parameter expansion it is shown that this prior is conditionally conjugate under the marginal model yielding efficient posterior computation. A special improper case results in accurate coverage rates of the credible intervals even for minimal sample size and when the true intraclass correlation equals zero. Bayes factor tests are proposed for testing multiple precise and order hypotheses on intraclass correlations. These tests can be used when prior information about the intraclass correlations is available or absent. For the noninformative case, a generalized fractional Bayes approach is developed. The method enables testing the presence and strength of grouped data structures without introducing random effects. The methodology is applied to a large-scale survey study on international mathematics achievement at fourth grade to test the heterogeneity in the clustering of students in schools across countries and assessment cycles. Full Article
social and politics Constrained Bayesian Optimization with Noisy Experiments By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Benjamin Letham, Brian Karrer, Guilherme Ottoni, Eytan Bakshy. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 495--519.Abstract: Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error. Bayesian optimization is a promising technique for efficiently optimizing multiple continuous parameters, but existing approaches degrade in performance when the noise level is high, limiting its applicability to many randomized experiments. We derive an expression for expected improvement under greedy batch optimization with noisy observations and noisy constraints, and develop a quasi-Monte Carlo approximation that allows it to be efficiently optimized. Simulations with synthetic functions show that optimization performance on noisy, constrained problems outperforms existing methods. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with two real-world experiments conducted at Facebook: optimizing a ranking system, and optimizing server compiler flags. Full Article
social and politics Analysis of the Maximal a Posteriori Partition in the Gaussian Dirichlet Process Mixture Model By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Łukasz Rajkowski. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 477--494.Abstract: Mixture models are a natural choice in many applications, but it can be difficult to place an a priori upper bound on the number of components. To circumvent this, investigators are turning increasingly to Dirichlet process mixture models (DPMMs). It is therefore important to develop an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of this approach. This work considers the MAP (maximum a posteriori) clustering for the Gaussian DPMM (where the cluster means have Gaussian distribution and, for each cluster, the observations within the cluster have Gaussian distribution). Some desirable properties of the MAP partition are proved: ‘almost disjointness’ of the convex hulls of clusters (they may have at most one point in common) and (with natural assumptions) the comparability of sizes of those clusters that intersect any fixed ball with the number of observations (as the latter goes to infinity). Consequently, the number of such clusters remains bounded. Furthermore, if the data arises from independent identically distributed sampling from a given distribution with bounded support then the asymptotic MAP partition of the observation space maximises a function which has a straightforward expression, which depends only on the within-group covariance parameter. As the operator norm of this covariance parameter decreases, the number of clusters in the MAP partition becomes arbitrarily large, which may lead to the overestimation of the number of mixture components. Full Article
social and politics Efficient Bayesian Regularization for Graphical Model Selection By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Suprateek Kundu, Bani K. Mallick, Veera Baladandayuthapani. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 449--476.Abstract: There has been an intense development in the Bayesian graphical model literature over the past decade; however, most of the existing methods are restricted to moderate dimensions. We propose a novel graphical model selection approach for large dimensional settings where the dimension increases with the sample size, by decoupling model fitting and covariance selection. First, a full model based on a complete graph is fit under a novel class of mixtures of inverse–Wishart priors, which induce shrinkage on the precision matrix under an equivalence with Cholesky-based regularization, while enabling conjugate updates. Subsequently, a post-fitting model selection step uses penalized joint credible regions to perform model selection. This allows our methods to be computationally feasible for large dimensional settings using a combination of straightforward Gibbs samplers and efficient post-fitting inferences. Theoretical guarantees in terms of selection consistency are also established. Simulations show that the proposed approach compares favorably with competing methods, both in terms of accuracy metrics and computation times. We apply this approach to a cancer genomics data example. Full Article
social and politics A Bayesian Approach to Statistical Shape Analysis via the Projected Normal Distribution By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Luis Gutiérrez, Eduardo Gutiérrez-Peña, Ramsés H. Mena. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 427--447.Abstract: This work presents a Bayesian predictive approach to statistical shape analysis. A modeling strategy that starts with a Gaussian distribution on the configuration space, and then removes the effects of location, rotation and scale, is studied. This boils down to an application of the projected normal distribution to model the configurations in the shape space, which together with certain identifiability constraints, facilitates parameter interpretation. Having better control over the parameters allows us to generalize the model to a regression setting where the effect of predictors on shapes can be considered. The methodology is illustrated and tested using both simulated scenarios and a real data set concerning eight anatomical landmarks on a sagittal plane of the corpus callosum in patients with autism and in a group of controls. Full Article
social and politics Control of Type I Error Rates in Bayesian Sequential Designs By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Haolun Shi, Guosheng Yin. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 399--425.Abstract: Bayesian approaches to phase II clinical trial designs are usually based on the posterior distribution of the parameter of interest and calibration of certain threshold for decision making. If the posterior probability is computed and assessed in a sequential manner, the design may involve the problem of multiplicity, which, however, is often a neglected aspect in Bayesian trial designs. To effectively maintain the overall type I error rate, we propose solutions to the problem of multiplicity for Bayesian sequential designs and, in particular, the determination of the cutoff boundaries for the posterior probabilities. We present both theoretical and numerical methods for finding the optimal posterior probability boundaries with $alpha$ -spending functions that mimic those of the frequentist group sequential designs. The theoretical approach is based on the asymptotic properties of the posterior probability, which establishes a connection between the Bayesian trial design and the frequentist group sequential method. The numerical approach uses a sandwich-type searching algorithm, which immensely reduces the computational burden. We apply least-square fitting to find the $alpha$ -spending function closest to the target. We discuss the application of our method to single-arm and double-arm cases with binary and normal endpoints, respectively, and provide a real trial example for each case. Full Article
social and politics Variational Message Passing for Elaborate Response Regression Models By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT M. W. McLean, M. P. Wand. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 371--398.Abstract: We build on recent work concerning message passing approaches to approximate fitting and inference for arbitrarily large regression models. The focus is on regression models where the response variable is modeled to have an elaborate distribution, which is loosely defined to mean a distribution that is more complicated than common distributions such as those in the Bernoulli, Poisson and Normal families. Examples of elaborate response families considered here are the Negative Binomial and $t$ families. Variational message passing is more challenging due to some of the conjugate exponential families being non-standard and numerical integration being needed. Nevertheless, a factor graph fragment approach means the requisite calculations only need to be done once for a particular elaborate response distribution family. Computer code can be compartmentalized, including that involving numerical integration. A major finding of this work is that the modularity of variational message passing extends to elaborate response regression models. Full Article
social and politics Bayesian Effect Fusion for Categorical Predictors By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Daniela Pauger, Helga Wagner. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 341--369.Abstract: We propose a Bayesian approach to obtain a sparse representation of the effect of a categorical predictor in regression type models. As this effect is captured by a group of level effects, sparsity cannot only be achieved by excluding single irrelevant level effects or the whole group of effects associated to this predictor but also by fusing levels which have essentially the same effect on the response. To achieve this goal, we propose a prior which allows for almost perfect as well as almost zero dependence between level effects a priori. This prior can alternatively be obtained by specifying spike and slab prior distributions on all effect differences associated to this categorical predictor. We show how restricted fusion can be implemented and develop an efficient MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) method for posterior computation. The performance of the proposed method is investigated on simulated data and we illustrate its application on real data from EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions). Full Article
social and politics Modeling Population Structure Under Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2019 22:00 EDT Lloyd T. Elliott, Maria De Iorio, Stefano Favaro, Kaustubh Adhikari, Yee Whye Teh. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 313--339.Abstract: We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model to infer population admixture, extending the hierarchical Dirichlet process to allow for correlation between loci due to linkage disequilibrium. Given multilocus genotype data from a sample of individuals, the proposed model allows inferring and classifying individuals as unadmixed or admixed, inferring the number of subpopulations ancestral to an admixed population and the population of origin of chromosomal regions. Our model does not assume any specific mutation process, and can be applied to most of the commonly used genetic markers. We present a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to perform posterior inference from the model and we discuss some methods to summarize the MCMC output for the analysis of population admixture. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed model in a real application, using genetic data from the ectodysplasin-A receptor (EDAR) gene, which is considered to be ancestry-informative due to well-known variations in allele frequency as well as phenotypic effects across ancestry. The structure analysis of this dataset leads to the identification of a rare haplotype in Europeans. We also conduct a simulated experiment and show that our algorithm outperforms parametric methods. Full Article
social and politics Separable covariance arrays via the Tucker product, with applications to multivariate relational data By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 13 Jun 2012 14:27 EDT Peter D. HoffSource: Bayesian Anal., Volume 6, Number 2, 179--196.Abstract: Modern datasets are often in the form of matrices or arrays, potentially having correlations along each set of data indices. For example, data involving repeated measurements of several variables over time may exhibit temporal correlation as well as correlation among the variables. A possible model for matrix-valued data is the class of matrix normal distributions, which is parametrized by two covariance matrices, one for each index set of the data. In this article we discuss an extension of the matrix normal model to accommodate multidimensional data arrays, or tensors. We show how a particular array-matrix product can be used to generate the class of array normal distributions having separable covariance structure. We derive some properties of these covariance structures and the corresponding array normal distributions, and show how the array-matrix product can be used to define a semi-conjugate prior distribution and calculate the corresponding posterior distribution. We illustrate the methodology in an analysis of multivariate longitudinal network data which take the form of a four-way array. Full Article
social and politics Special Olympics in Slovenia By www.uefa.com Published On :: Wed, 19 Jan 2011 08:05:00 GMT We look at how the Slovenian FA is tackling disability football. Full Article
social and politics Open Fun Football Schools By www.uefa.com Published On :: Wed, 19 Jan 2011 08:07:00 GMT We find out about a life-changing scheme in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Full Article
social and politics UEFA Study Group Scheme By www.uefa.com Published On :: Tue, 25 Jan 2011 08:00:00 GMT We visit the KNVB to learn about UEFA's technical exchange initiative. Full Article
social and politics Kadenko's Ukrainian legacy By www.uefa.com Published On :: Thu, 10 Feb 2011 08:30:00 GMT We meet the Oleksandr Kadenko, the gold medal recipient in the 2010 UEFA Grassroots Day Awards for best leader. Full Article
social and politics The FARE initiative By www.uefa.com Published On :: Tue, 29 Mar 2011 08:00:00 GMT A look at how racism is being tackled in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Full Article
social and politics Finland's HatTrick help By www.uefa.com Published On :: Wed, 30 Mar 2011 11:32:00 GMT How UEFA has helped football development in Finland. Full Article
social and politics Ireland's final legacy By www.uefa.com Published On :: Wed, 18 May 2011 08:01:00 GMT We find out about the grassroots plans for Dublin around the UEFA Europa League final. Full Article
social and politics Poland's Grassroots Day By www.uefa.com Published On :: Fri, 20 May 2011 08:01:00 GMT A look at how Poland celebrated the first UEFA Grassroots Day. Full Article
social and politics FA hopes to inspire youth By www.uefa.com Published On :: Wed, 25 May 2011 08:05:00 GMT We find out about the grassroots events organised in England in conjuction with the UEFA Champions League final. Full Article
social and politics Le Saux's grassroots pride By www.uefa.com Published On :: Wed, 25 May 2011 08:11:00 GMT UEFA Champions Festival Ambassador Graeme Le Saux discusses the importance of UEFA Grassroots Day. Full Article
social and politics Show unites grassroots community By www.uefa.com Published On :: Fri, 03 Jun 2011 10:47:00 GMT We visit the Grassroots Football Show in Birmingham, England. Full Article
social and politics U21s a boon to grassroots By www.uefa.com Published On :: Thu, 09 Jun 2011 08:24:00 GMT We investigate the impact at grassroots level that hosting the 2011 UEFA European Under-21 Championship finals will have in Denmark and also in Israel in 2013. Full Article
social and politics Inside the Ajax Academy II By www.uefa.com Published On :: Mon, 13 Jun 2011 08:00:00 GMT We look at a coaching system which has produced a long line of talent. Full Article
social and politics Inside the Ajax academy By www.uefa.com Published On :: Mon, 13 Jun 2011 13:00:00 GMT We investigate what makes the Dutch club's youth system so special. Full Article
social and politics Germany's World Cup boost By www.uefa.com Published On :: Thu, 23 Jun 2011 08:18:00 GMT Willi Hink from the German Football Association tells us how the FIFA Women's World Cup will boost girls' football in Germany. Full Article
social and politics UEFA Champions festival history By www.uefa.com Published On :: Tue, 28 Jun 2011 09:32:00 GMT Find out about the festival of football that has proceeded the UEFA Champions League final every year since 2006. Full Article
social and politics Brooking applauds initiative By www.uefa.com Published On :: Wed, 29 Jun 2011 08:10:00 GMT Sir Trevor Brooking hails a special second annual UEFA Grassroots Day. Full Article
social and politics UEFA Grassroots Day in Malta By www.uefa.com Published On :: Fri, 01 Jul 2011 08:28:00 GMT We check out the UEFA Grassroots Day activities that took place at the Malta Football Association national training centre in Ta'Qali. Full Article
social and politics Scotland's Grassroots Day By www.uefa.com Published On :: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 15:58:00 GMT We visit Lesser Hampden to see how Scotland celebrated UEFA Grassroots Day. Full Article
social and politics Germany's mini-pitch focus By www.uefa.com Published On :: Tue, 05 Jul 2011 16:07:00 GMT We find out how mini-pitches were the centrepiece of Germany's UEFA Grassroots Day celebrations. Full Article
social and politics Switzerland's summer schools By www.uefa.com Published On :: Tue, 12 Jul 2011 09:00:00 GMT A look at how Swiss football is on the rise, from the grassroots upwards. Full Article
social and politics Gothenburg's fields of dreams By www.uefa.com Published On :: Mon, 18 Jul 2011 08:31:00 GMT We visit the world's biggest grassroots tournament. Full Article
social and politics Swindon's Swedish adventure By www.uefa.com Published On :: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 16:03:00 GMT We follow Swindon Town Football in the Community Under-17 girls on their journey from England to the Gothia Cup in Sweden. Full Article
social and politics Slovenia's Roma clubs By www.uefa.com Published On :: Sat, 30 Jul 2011 08:22:00 GMT We find out about the importance of equal opportunities for Roma players in Slovenian football. Full Article
social and politics Spain reap the rewards II By www.uefa.com Published On :: Sun, 31 Jul 2011 09:58:00 GMT We find out how youngsters in Spain are taught a certain playing style from an early age. Full Article
social and politics Spain reap the rewards By www.uefa.com Published On :: Mon, 01 Aug 2011 10:25:00 GMT We investigate a golden era of Spanish youth football. Full Article