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????????-duality for self-similar groupoid actions on graphs

Nathan Brownlowe, Alcides Buss, Daniel Gonçalves, Jeremy B. Hume, Aidan Sims and Michael F. Whittaker
Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 377 (), 5513-5560.
Abstract, references and article information





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Smoothness and Lévy concentration function inequalities for distributions of random diagonal sums

Bero Roos
Theor. Probability and Math. Statist. 111 (), 137-151.
Abstract, references and article information




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Asymptotic normality of estimators for all parameters in the Vasicek model by discrete observations

Olha Prykhodko and Kostiantyn Ralchenko
Theor. Probability and Math. Statist. 111 (), 123-135.
Abstract, references and article information




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A convolution inequality, yielding a sharper Berry–Esseen theorem for summands Zolotarev-close to normal

Lutz Mattner
Theor. Probability and Math. Statist. 111 (), 45-122.
Abstract, references and article information




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Large deviations for perturbed Gaussian processes and logarithmic asymptotic estimates for some exit probabilities

Claudio Macci and Barbara Pacchiarotti
Theor. Probability and Math. Statist. 111 (), 21-43.
Abstract, references and article information




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A Markovian Gauss inequality for asymmetric deviations from the mode of symmetric unimodal distributions

Chris A.J. Klaassen
Theor. Probability and Math. Statist. 111 (), 9-19.
Abstract, references and article information






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On the analyticity of the maximal extension of a number field with prescribed ramification and splitting

Donghyeok Lim and Christian Maire
Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 152 (), 5013-5024.
Abstract, references and article information






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If You Think Blocking People Over Political Views Is Petty, Just Wait Until You See The Other Reasons People Shared




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The cation diffusion facilitator protein MamM's cytoplasmic domain exhibits metal-type dependent binding modes and discriminates against Mn2+ [Molecular Biophysics]

Cation diffusion facilitator (CDF) proteins are a conserved family of divalent transition metal cation transporters. CDF proteins are usually composed of two domains: the transmembrane domain, in which the metal cations are transported through, and a regulatory cytoplasmic C-terminal domain (CTD). Each CDF protein transports either one specific metal or multiple metals from the cytoplasm, and it is not known whether the CTD takes an active regulatory role in metal recognition and discrimination during cation transport. Here, the model CDF protein MamM, an iron transporter from magnetotactic bacteria, was used to probe the role of the CTD in metal recognition and selectivity. Using a combination of biophysical and structural approaches, the binding of different metals to MamM CTD was characterized. Results reveal that different metals bind distinctively to MamM CTD in terms of their binding sites, thermodynamics, and binding-dependent conformations, both in crystal form and in solution, which suggests a varying level of functional discrimination between CDF domains. Furthermore, these results provide the first direct evidence that CDF CTDs play a role in metal selectivity. We demonstrate that MamM's CTD can discriminate against Mn2+, supporting its postulated role in preventing magnetite formation poisoning in magnetotactic bacteria via Mn2+ incorporation.




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Seeded fibrils of the germline variant of human {lambda}-III immunoglobulin light chain FOR005 have a similar core as patient fibrils with reduced stability [Molecular Biophysics]

Systemic antibody light chains (AL) amyloidosis is characterized by deposition of amyloid fibrils derived from a particular antibody light chain. Cardiac involvement is a major risk factor for mortality. Using MAS solid-state NMR, we studied the fibril structure of a recombinant light chain fragment corresponding to the fibril protein from patient FOR005, together with fibrils formed by protein sequence variants that are derived from the closest germline (GL) sequence. Both analyzed fibril structures were seeded with ex-vivo amyloid fibrils purified from the explanted heart of this patient. We find that residues 11-42 and 69-102 adopt β-sheet conformation in patient protein fibrils. We identify arginine-49 as a key residue that forms a salt bridge to aspartate-25 in the patient protein fibril structure. In the germline sequence, this residue is replaced by a glycine. Fibrils from the GL protein and from the patient protein harboring the single point mutation R49G can be both heterologously seeded using patient ex-vivo fibrils. Seeded R49G fibrils show an increased heterogeneity in the C-terminal residues 80-102, which is reflected by the disappearance of all resonances of these residues. By contrast, residues 11-42 and 69-77, which are visible in the MAS solid-state NMR spectra, show 13Cα chemical shifts that are highly like patient fibrils. The mutation R49G thus induces a conformational heterogeneity at the C terminus in the fibril state, whereas the overall fibril topology is retained. These findings imply that patient mutations in FOR005 can stabilize the fibril structure.




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COVID-19 Teaches Resilience and the ‘Vulnerability Paradox’

7 August 2020

Dr Gareth Price

Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme

Christopher Vandome

Research Fellow, Africa Programme
Humility from decision-makers, building trust in leaders and institutions, and learning from international experience are critical if countries are to better prepare for the next global crisis.

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An information poster on preventing the spread of COVID-19 in Hanoi, Vietnam. Photo by MANAN VATSYAYANA/AFP via Getty Images.

While we must wait for the final reckoning of most successful national coronavirus responses, it does still appear those countries with memories of MERS and SARS - such as Singapore, Taiwan, Hong-Kong, and South Korea – led the way in being best prepared for COVID-19, with strong contract tracing and isolation measures.

Experience of previous outbreaks informed the containment strategies adopted by countries in East Asia in response to COVID-19. Vietnam reported its first case of COVID-19 in January but, over the following four months with rapid targeted testing, contact tracing and successful containment, only around 300 additional cases with no deaths were confirmed.

These countries learned to be flexible fast when new transmissions occurred, establishing quick lockdown measures targeted at key groups such as Singapore’s schools or South Korea’s night clubs and religious centres. In stark contrast, most European countries were overwhelmed by the pandemic despite enjoying world-class health systems, predictive models, scientific expertise, wealth, and resources.

Asia may have suffered first from coronavirus, but there is no ‘first mover advantage’ in dealing with a pandemic. The more resilient a society, the better placed it is to cope with a variety of risks and challenges. But to become resilient, a society needs to have faced setbacks and learned from them. And to remain resilient, it needs to stay aware of its own vulnerabilities and avoid complacency.

Prior experience of crises and disturbances, coupled with a ‘trial and error’ process of learning to deal with them, makes a society more resilient, whereas high levels of economic welfare and relative lack of recent crises leave some societies less prepared to face shocks. This is known as the ‘vulnerability paradox’.

Within Europe, it has actually been the Greek handling of COVID-19 that so far appears more successful than others. Greece is a country which has suffered a decade of austerity leading to a weakened healthcare system. And with one of Europe’s oldest populations, the Greek government was keenly aware of its own vulnerabilities. This prompted an early lockdown and a rapid increase in intensive care beds.

Although better state capacity and health system capability are clearly positives for mitigating disasters, citizens do tend to be less familiar with risk preparedness. This lack of experience can then breed complacency which threatens societies where risks are often complex, numerous, transboundary and inter-related.

Conversely, the absence of systemic resilience at a national level often puts the onus on family units or local communities – creating resilience as a necessary response to weak government capacity. There is little choice but to learn to look after yourself and your community.

However, although the vulnerability paradox helps explain why prior experience makes a system more resilient, societies need to stay aware of their own vulnerabilities and avoid complacency if they are to continually remain resilient.

Complacency coupled with a belief in the virtues of the free market has left some countries hit harder than others by the pandemic. In normal times, ‘just in time’ business models can be highly efficient compared to holding vast stocks. But it does not require hindsight to know that a global health crisis will see demand for protective equipment soar and these business models severely challenged.

Several societies have also witnessed a decline in trust towards institutions, especially politicians or the media. The deployment of science as justification for political decisions around coronavirus was presumably intended to help garner trust in those decisions. But when the science itself is inexact because of inadequate or emerging knowledge, this strategy is hardly fail-safe.

COVID-19 does provide an opportunity to rebuild trust by rethinking the relationship between the state and its citizens, to engage people more directly in a discussion about societal resilience with empowered citizens, and to rebuild a social contract between state and society in the context of recent significant changes and further potential threats.

It should also provide a salutary wake-up call to a range of ‘strongmen’ leaders prone to portraying issues rather simplistically. Although COVID-19 may be one of the few complex problems to which simplistic measures do apply - such as wearing a mask and using social distancing – these do not provide the whole solution.

Generally, declining trust in politicians reflects the ongoing inability of current politics to deal with a range of societal challenges. COVID-19 is certainly the most sudden and presents the biggest immediate economic shock of recent times, but it is just the latest in a long line of examples of political failure, such as conflict in the Middle East, climate change, terrorism, and cyber-attacks.

Along with the growth of automation and digitization which provide opportunities at the macro-level but threats at a more micro-level, what most of these issues have in common is that national responses are likely to fail. Restoring trust requires re-energized global governance, and this means compromise and humility – qualities which appear in short supply to many current politicians.

But, regardless of political will, building resilience to tackle ongoing or rapidly forthcoming challenges also rubs up against free market beliefs, because building resilience is a long-term investment and comes at a price. But by acknowledging vulnerabilities, avoiding complacency, implementing lessons from past experiences, and learning from others, policymakers will be better prepared for the next crisis.

Reconstructing societies through the prism of resilience creates fundamentally different outcomes to global challenges, and can build trust between elected representatives and the wider population. Accepting the vulnerability paradox and acknowledging that those generally less prone to disasters are actually less able to cope when change happens creates a powerful argument for this new approach.




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By Inventing Military Threats, Lukashenka Is Playing with Fire

20 August 2020

Keir Giles

Senior Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
In a bid to reassert control in Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka is trying to stir the worst fears of his supporters by playing the war card. But overplaying his hand could prove disastrous if it leads to confrontation with either Russia or NATO.

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A mass rally in Grodno, Belarus where factory workers went on strike in protest against the election results and actions of law enforcement officers. Photo by Viktor DrachevTASS via Getty Images.

Having failed to swiftly translate popular support into tangible political achievements, there are signs the protests against the fraudulent presidential election in Belarus may be losing momentum in the face of the state’s resilience and still-confident security and enforcement apparatus.

Attempts to blame the unrest on the West have focused on groups Lukashenka and Russia can both call enemies. And now Aliaksandr Lukashenka is not only inventing anti-Russian policies supposedly held by the opposition, such as suppressing the Russian language and closing the border with Russia, but also a supposed military threat from NATO.

Border movements

Increased military activity inside Belarus does give Lukashenka a wider range of options. Unscheduled activation of military units includes airspace defence practice with missiles and aircraft, electronic warfare (EW) units put on round-the-clock alert, and a number of infantry brigades preparing for live firing exercises.

Lukashenka is drawing attention to the north-west corner of Belarus, singling out the city of Grodno near the border with Poland and Lithuania as a supposed target for Western efforts at destabilization. Grodno is also the destination for an airborne brigade moving from the east to the west of the country and the focus of military exercises under way on the country’s western borders.

All this feeds Lukashenka’s narrative that Belarus is in danger from NATO and the West who are supposedly both stirring up the protests and seeking to exploit disorder - and that this danger extends to possible military clashes.

The Belarusian exercises are over the border from where NATO troops - including elements of the Light Dragoons, a British reconnaissance unit - have been in place in Poland as part of NATO's enhanced forward presence (eFP) since 2017. Pointing to NATO activity in Poland and Lithuania, Lukashenka said on Wednesday ‘we have to follow their movements and plans’ and that ‘they will answer for it if something happens’.

The danger is that having invented a tense situation in Grodno, Lukashenka may now need to be proved right. There may be staged incidents or ‘provocations’ against Belarus military forces, either supposedly instigated by protesters or even by NATO forces on the border - all aimed at bolstering the narrative that NATO, the EU, and the West in general are hostile to Belarus and that more drastic measures are necessary for protection.

Russia’s options still open

Although initial fears of a Russian move into Belarus have receded, Lukashenka’s complaints about NATO also bolster the case for Moscow to intervene. The military exercises fit the narrative that Belarus is under threat from the West - which is exactly the pretext Russia would need.

If this is believed in Moscow, where foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has already described events in Belarus as part of a ‘struggle for the post-Soviet space’, this makes a Russian intervention more likely. Moving forces away from their base near the border with Russia to the other end of the country near Poland and Lithuania also means any Russian entry into Belarus could go more smoothly, with fewer wild cards of possible Belarusian opposition to consider.

There are plenty of sensible, rational, logical reasons why a Russian military intervention in Belarus would be disastrous and counter-productive. But what seems sensible and rational in Europe and North America does not always carry weight in Moscow, which may see the situation completely differently and measure options by completely different standards.

One key area of doubt is the sympathies of the Belarus armed forces. Although some elements of the Belarusian army - particularly airborne and special forces - work closely with their Russian counterparts, more general suggestions that the Belarusian military is merely an extension of Russia’s and is not capable of taking decisions for itself are an over-simplification.

The Belarus armed forces do know that hosting Russian ground troops, airbases or air defence systems would fatally undermine the country’s hopes of avoiding being caught up in any confrontation between Russia and NATO.

And although the great majority of Belarusian officers are Russian-speaking and many have been trained and educated in Russia, there may be sufficient pride in national identity and resentment at heavy-handed treatment by Russia to lead to substantial obstruction of Russian initiatives.

The Belarus General Staff has already refused permission for a Russian aircraft carrying 155 personnel from the Rosgvardiya militarized security force and three tonnes of cargo ‘for the Belarusian interior ministry’ to land in Belarus. This could indicate not only tension between Russia and Belarus, but even between ministries within Belarus itself.

Like Russia, Lukashenka has plenty of options in reserve if his situation deteriorates further. Announcing a state of emergency would allow the Belarusian army to support the security forces in dealing with protests. If the army is on the move with their equipment they are better prepared to be brought into action if needed, but testing the loyalty of the armed forces could prove dangerous if the sympathies of army units turn out to lie more with civilians than with their oppressors from the interior ministry.

The military preparations against fictitious threats and a patiently-waiting Russia is a toxic mix and Belarus’s friends abroad must tread carefully. A key task for the European Union (EU) is to help the Belarusian people without providing a pretext for further violence and Russian intervention.

The right level of engagement needs to be carefully calibrated, avoiding disasters of strategic communication such as European Commissioner Thierry Breton being translated into English as saying Belarus is not part of Europe – with the lack of EU interest that that implies. Although the EU statement promising sanctions and offering funds received a mixed reception, at least it cannot be used by Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin as evidence that their warnings of a Western military threat are genuine.




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Rage Against the Algorithm: the Risks of Overestimating Military Artificial Intelligence

27 August 2020

Yasmin Afina

Research Assistant, International Security Programme
Increasing dependency on artificial intelligence (AI) for military technologies is inevitable and efforts to develop these technologies to use in the battlefield is proceeding apace, however, developers and end-users must ensure the reliability of these technologies, writes Yasmin Afina.

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F-16 SimuSphere HD flight simulator at Link Simulation in Arlington, Texas, US. Photo: Getty Images.

AI holds the potential to replace humans for tactical tasks in military operations beyond current applications such as navigation assistance. For example, in the US, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) recently held the final round of its AlphaDogfight Trials where an algorithm controlling a simulated F-16 fighter was pitted against an Air Force pilot in virtual aerial combat. The algorithm won by 5-0. So what does this mean for the future of military operations?

The agency’s deputy director remarked that these tools are now ‘ready for weapons systems designers to be in the toolbox’. At first glance, the dogfight shows that an AI-enabled air combat would provide tremendous military advantage including the lack of survival instincts inherent to humans, the ability to consistently operate with high acceleration stress beyond the limitations of the human body and high targeting precision.

The outcome of these trials, however, does not mean that this technology is ready for deployment in the battlefield. In fact, an array of considerations must be taken into account prior to their deployment and use – namely the ability to adapt in real-life combat situations, physical limitations and legal compliance.

Testing environment versus real-life applications

First, as with all technologies, the performance of an algorithm in its testing environment is bound to differ from real-life applications such as in the case of cluster munitions. For instance, Google Health developed an algorithm to help with diabetic retinopathy screening. While the algorithm’s accuracy rate in the lab was over 90 per cent, it did not perform well out of the lab because the algorithm was used to high-quality scans in its training, it rejected more than a fifth of the real-life scans which were deemed as being below the quality threshold required. As a result, the process ended up being as time-consuming and costly – if not more so – than traditional screening.

Similarly, virtual environments akin to the AlphaDogfight Trials do not reflect the extent of risks, hazards and unpredictability of real-life combat. In the dogfight exercise, for example, the algorithm had full situational awareness and was repeatedly trained to the rules, parameters and limitations of its operating environment. But, in a real-life dynamic and battlefield, the list of variables is long and will inevitably fluctuate: visibility may be poor, extreme weather could affect operations and the performance of aircraft and the behaviour and actions of adversaries will be unpredictable.

Every single eventuality would need to be programmed in line with the commander’s intent in an ever-changing situation or it would drastically affect the performance of algorithms including in target identification and firing precision.

Hardware limitations

Another consideration relates to the limitations of the hardware that AI systems depend on. Algorithms depend on hardware to operate equipment such as sensors and computer systems – each of which are constrained by physical limitations. These can be targeted by an adversary, for example, through electronic interference to disrupt the functioning of the computer systems which the algorithms are operating from.

Hardware may also be affected involuntarily. For instance, a ‘pilotless’ aircraft controlled by an algorithm can indeed undergo higher accelerations, and thus, higher g-force than the human body can endure. However, the aircraft in itself is also subject to physical limitations such as acceleration limits beyond which parts of the aircraft, such as its sensors, may be severely damaged which in turn affects the algorithm’s performance and, ultimately, mission success. It is critical that these physical limitations are factored into the equation when deploying these machines especially when they so heavily rely on sensors.

Legal compliance

Another major, and perhaps the greatest, consideration relates to the ability to rely on machines for legal compliance. The DARPA dogfight exclusively focused on the algorithm’s ability to successfully control the aircraft and counter the adversary, however, nothing indicates its ability to ensure that strikes remain within the boundaries of the law.

In an armed conflict, the deployment and use of such systems in the battlefield are not exempt from international humanitarian law (IHL) and most notably its customary principles of distinction, proportionality and precautions in attack. It would need to be able to differentiate between civilians, combatants and military objectives, calculate whether its attacks will be proportionate against the set military objective and live collateral damage estimates and take the necessary precautions to ensure the attacks remain within the boundaries of the law – including the ability to abort if necessary. This would also require the machine to have the ability to stay within the rules of engagement for that particular operation.

It is therefore critical to incorporate IHL considerations from the conception and throughout the development and testing phases of algorithms to ensure the machines are sufficiently reliable for legal compliance purposes.

It is also important that developers address the 'black box' issue whereby the algorithm’s calculations are so complex that it is impossible for humans to understand how it came to its results. It is not only necessary to address the algorithm’s opacity to improve the algorithm’s performance over time, it is also key for accountability and investigation purposes in cases of incidents and suspected violations of applicable laws.

Reliability, testing and experimentation

Algorithms are becoming increasingly powerful and there is no doubt that they will confer tremendous advantages to the military. Over-hype, however, must be avoided at the expense of the machine’s reliability on the technical front as well as for legal compliance purposes.

The testing and experimentation phases are key during which developers will have the ability to fine-tune the algorithms. Developers must, therefore, be held accountable for ensuring the reliability of machines by incorporating considerations pertaining to performance and accuracy, hardware limitations as well as legal compliance. This could help prevent incidents in real life that result from overestimating of the capabilities of AI in military operations. 




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US Electorate Shows Distrust of the Realities of Foreign Policy

4 September 2020

Bruce Stokes

Associate Fellow, US and the Americas Programme (based in the US)
The identity of the next US president is yet to be determined, but the foreign policy views of the American public are already clear. In principle, Americans support US engagement in the world but, in practice, they worry other countries take advantage of the United States.

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A poll station official holding "I Voted" stickers in South Carolina. Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images.

Whoever occupies the White House after the election, it is evident the emphasis will be on ‘America First’, and that only characteristics and approaches will differ. If Donald Trump is re-elected, his electoral base will support a continuation of isolationist, protectionist policies. If Joe Biden becomes president, he will enjoy some limited popular backing for international re-engagement, but his voters still clearly want him to prioritize domestic issues.

Implications for the foreign policy of the next US administration are evident. America may have a long history of isolationism, but that should not be confused with ignorance of the growing interconnectedness of today’s world. However, Americans are struggling to find a new equilibrium for their country’s role in the world.

Around seven-in-ten hold the view that the United States should take a leading or major role in international affairs, and the same number acknowledge that international events affect their daily life. But Americans remain reticent about global engagement, and half of registered voters believe other countries take unfair advantage of the United States.

This clear contradiction is mirrored in what can be expected from the election victor, with a Joe Biden administration likely to speak for those who want America to lead, while a second Donald Trump administration is expected to continue complaining about US victimization by an ungrateful world.

A majority (57%) of Americans say foreign policy is 'very important' to them as they decide who to vote for in the 2020 election. This may seem like a high priority, but American polls often show many issues are 'very important' to voters. What matters is relative importance and foreign policy pales in comparison with the significance the public accords to the economy (79%) or healthcare (68%). Immigration (52%) and climate change (42%) are of even less relative importance to voters.

Notably, despite the deep partisanship in American politics today, there is no difference between Republican and Democrat voters on the low priority they accord foreign policy. And barely one-third (35%) of the public give top priority to working with allies and international institutions to confront global challenges such as climate change, poverty and disease — in fact only 31% say improving relations with allies should be a top foreign policy priority over the next five years.

However, despite this apparent lack of support for international relations, a rising majority of Americans believe international trade is good for the economy — running contrary to many international assumptions that Americans are inherently protectionist. But this increased interest may not amount to much in reality. Americans also believe trade destroys jobs and lowers wages. Trump is clearly wedded to a protectionist worldview and may continue to try dismantling the World Trade Organization (WTO). Biden is unlikely to initiate any new trade liberalizing negotiations given what would be, at best, a slim Democratic majority in the Senate and anti-trade views held by many unions and blue-collar voters among his constituency. Any political capital he commits to trade is likely to focus on reforming the WTO, but privately his advisers admit they are not optimistic.

In addition, both Biden and Trump face strong public support for ratcheting up pressure on China, although their lines of attack may differ, with Trump likely to double down on tariffs while Biden would work closely with Europe on both trade and human rights issues. More broadly, almost three-quarters (73%) of Americans now express an unfavourable view of China, up 18 points since the last presidential election. One-quarter of Americans classify Beijing as an ‘enemy’ with almost half saying the US should get tougher with China on economic issues, although attitudes do divide along partisan lines, with Republicans generally more critical of Beijing, but Democrats are tougher on human rights.

On immigration, Trump’s policies are out of step with the public. Six-in-ten Americans oppose expanding the border wall with Mexico, 74% support legal status for immigrants illegally brought to the United States as children — including a majority of Republicans (54%) — and as many Americans favour increasing immigration as support decreasing it. But Trump has already promised to double down on limiting immigration if he wins because it is what his Republican electoral base wants and, as with trade, this is one of his long-expressed personal beliefs. If he wins, expect more mass roundups of undocumented people, completion of his border wall and stricter limitations on legal immigration.

In contrast, Biden is likely to loosen constraints on immigration because he believes immigration has been good for the economy and the Democratic party is increasingly dependent on Hispanic and Asian voters, the two fastest growing portions of the population. However, open borders are not a Biden option. The US foreign-born population is at near-record levels and, every time in American history the portion of foreign born has come close to being 14% of the total population — in the 1880s, the 1920s and now — there has been a populist backlash. Democrats cannot risk that again.

On climate change, there is strong evidence the American public is increasingly worried, and likely to support rejoining the Paris Agreement if Biden is elected and increases US commitments to cut carbon emissions. But the public also appears unlikely to punish Trump if, as promised, he leaves that accord, and he is almost certain to continue denying climate science in the interest of the coal, oil, and gas industries.

The public’s concern about global warming does not necessarily translate into support for taking substantive action. There is a huge partisan divide between the number of Democrats (68%) and Republicans (11%) who say climate change is a very important issue in the 2020 election. When pressed on what action they want on climate change, and who they trust to do it, Americans are less likely than Europeans to accept paying higher prices. A carbon tax stands no chance of passing the Senate, thanks to moderate Democrats from fossil-fuel states, and America’s love affair with large, CO²-emitting vehicles shows no signs of ebbing.

The outcome of the 2020 US election will almost certainly not be determined by foreign concerns, although an international crisis — a terrorist incident, a military confrontation with China or North Korea — could impact voting in an unforeseen way. But given the mood of the American electorate, if Trump is re-elected, there will be scant public pressure for a more activist, collaborative US foreign policy, beyond support for a tough line on China, while a win for Biden will give more room for some international initiatives.

But public opinion data is clear. Voters want the next US president to focus first on domestic issues — overcoming the pandemic, digging the country out of a deep economic hole, calming racial tensions, and reversing inequality. The outcome of the election may end America’s recently antagonistic foreign policy and halt the deterioration of its international role. But dramatic American re-engagement appears unlikely as the public’s priorities lie elsewhere.




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Formal Representation for Young People Enhances Politics for All

10 September 2020

Ben Horton

Communications Manager, Communications and Publishing

Michel Alimasi

Member, Common Futures Conversations, Italy

Gift Jedida

Member, Common Futures Conversations, Kenya

Sanne Thijssen

Member, Common Futures Conversations, Netherlands

Mondher Tounsi

Member, Common Futures Conversations, Tunisia
Despite grassroots associations, community organizing and online groups offering pathways for political engagement, the room for youth representation in international politics remains narrow, with many young people still left feeling they are passive participants in policymaking.

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Youth protests at Parliament square against a new exam rating system which has been introduced in British education system - London, England on August 16, 2020. Photo by Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

According to UN Youth, people aged 15-24 make up one-sixth of the world’s population but, in roughly one-third of countries, the eligibility for parliamentarians begins at 25 years old and only 1.6% of parliamentarians are in their twenties. Young people are largely being excluded and overlooked, both as political candidates and even as participants in political processes, giving them limited political control over their own futures. 

If politics continues to be regarded as a space for older, more politically experienced individuals from particular backgrounds, young people will continue to be left systematically marginalized, and overall disengagement with politics within societies will continue to grow. Global leaders may increasingly point out the importance of youth representation in national and international fora, but the reality is their real policymaking impact still comes mainly from self-organized and informal activities.

And yet, despite this continued exclusion, huge numbers of young people are interested in political and civic engagement, and they have been driven to create new spaces. Youth networks, movements, and constituencies have emerged which provide the opportunity for younger voices to express political stances, and thus enhance the diversity and inclusivity of political debate. 

From the global Extinction Rebellion protests, to the student-led Rhodes Must Fall movement in South Africa and the UK, there are numerous examples of the power of informal youth networks and movements pushing for change. In certain cases, such as Sudan’s political revolution in 2019, we can see how direct action by young people creates major impact, but unfortunately these successes are few as most informal initiatives remain overlooked and undervalued. 

Putting youth representation into government

Creating diverse representation requires the linking of vital informal networks to formal political processes. In response to a recent Common Futures Conversations challenge, one mechanism with the potential to achieve this aim that emerged is creating dedicated youth representatives within government departments, so that qualified young people with relevant expertise are formally appointed to act as the link between government and informal youth movements. 

These individuals should be hired as employees rather than volunteers and take up the responsibilities of a government employee, supported by a large network of youth-led movements and initiatives as well as a smaller, voluntary advisory board of young people. 

This network then acts as a sounding board for the representative, gathering the opinions in their local communities and bringing forward crucial concerns so the youth representatives can confidently feed into policymaking processes with a clear sense of the substance of youth opinion. Alongside the network, a voluntary board of young people could provide additional support to the representatives when required to consult a broader range of youth organizations.

Both in the youth network and the board, a key priority is to involve different movements and initiatives reflecting diversities such as geographic spread, people who are marginalized due to ethnicity, gender or sexuality, educational and professional backgrounds, and other factors. 

Implementing such a structure would ensure more diversity in youth representation, something which is missing in many existing youth participation and formal political structures. Representation needs to move away from only highly-educated youth living in cities to ensure more influence for those young people usually left on the sidelines. 

Youth involvement in politics leads to better civic engagement overall. It improves the influence and access of young people, and supports governments becoming more inclusive and responsive to the plurality of voices they are representing. It also has the potential of encouraging millions more people to become properly engaged with politics. 

In order to gain support from parliamentarians and policymakers, it is crucial to highlight these benefits and demonstrate how the support of young people helps shift the political landscape for the better. All the necessary parties already exist in most countries, so all that is required is to drive a collective initiative and for both governments and the youth to take responsibility for making it work.

As the former president of Ireland Mary Robinson said during a recent Chatham House Centenary event: ‘We need to make space for young people so we can hear their voices, their imagination, their commitment to question and speak truth to power. We need young people to feel that they are part of the solution.’ 

Building formal structures is a necessary step to achieving this vision, as it provides practical solutions to realize a more diverse, inclusive and meaningful participation of the youth in politics, and also creates more representative and responsive governments.




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Methylarginine metabolites are associated with attenuated muscle protein synthesis in cancer-associated muscle wasting [Protein Synthesis and Degradation]

Cancer cachexia is characterized by reductions in peripheral lean muscle mass. Prior studies have primarily focused on increased protein breakdown as the driver of cancer-associated muscle wasting. Therapeutic interventions targeting catabolic pathways have, however, largely failed to preserve muscle mass in cachexia, suggesting that other mechanisms might be involved. In pursuit of novel pathways, we used untargeted metabolomics to search for metabolite signatures that may be linked with muscle atrophy. We injected 7-week–old C57/BL6 mice with LLC1 tumor cells or vehicle. After 21 days, tumor-bearing mice exhibited reduced body and muscle mass and impaired grip strength compared with controls, which was accompanied by lower synthesis rates of mixed muscle protein and the myofibrillar and sarcoplasmic muscle fractions. Reductions in protein synthesis were accompanied by mitochondrial enlargement and reduced coupling efficiency in tumor-bearing mice. To generate mechanistic insights into impaired protein synthesis, we performed untargeted metabolomic analyses of plasma and muscle and found increased concentrations of two methylarginines, asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) and NG-monomethyl-l-arginine, in tumor-bearing mice compared with control mice. Compared with healthy controls, human cancer patients were also found to have higher levels of ADMA in the skeletal muscle. Treatment of C2C12 myotubes with ADMA impaired protein synthesis and reduced mitochondrial protein quality. These results suggest that increased levels of ADMA and mitochondrial changes may contribute to impaired muscle protein synthesis in cancer cachexia and could point to novel therapeutic targets by which to mitigate cancer cachexia.




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Enhancing the role of women in peacebuilding and politics in Ethiopia

Enhancing the role of women in peacebuilding and politics in Ethiopia 29 June 2022 — 1:00PM TO 2:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 16 June 2022 Online

Panellists discuss the priorities for promoting the agency of women in politics and peacebuilding in Ethiopia and approaches for combatting gender-based discrimination and violence.

The war in northern Ethiopia and conflicts elsewhere have disproportionately affected women and girls – including through the infliction of physical and sexual violence, the heightened impacts of displacement and disruptions to education, and the co-option of women’s experiences in narratives by aggressors of conflict.

Hard-won political gains in women’s rights have been undermined and deep-rooted gender inequalities exacerbated. Despite this, women remain central actors in politics, as well as in conflict resolution and mediation efforts. However, more needs to be done to promote the security and inclusion of women in finding sustainable solutions for Ethiopia’s long-term recovery and to institutionalize reforms for gender equity and development.

At this public event, panellists will discuss the priorities for improving women’s participation and equality in public decision-making in Ethiopia and how to strengthen the implementation of legislation on women’s rights. They will also discuss what societal shifts and approaches are needed to combat gender-based discrimination and violence and to promote the agency of women in peacebuilding.

This webinar is part of a series of events and outputs on Ethiopia’s political transition.

This event will also be broadcast live on the Chatham House Africa Programme’s Facebook page.




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Why Ethiopia must close its political gender gap

Why Ethiopia must close its political gender gap The World Today mhiggins.drupal 29 July 2022

Women urgently need to gain access to high office if the country hopes to survive, say Hilina Berhanu Degefa and Emebet Getachew.

At the end of 2021, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government announced the formation of a three-year national dialogue to address Ethiopia’s political crisis, looking at the ongoing civil war and conflict, inflation, unemployment, drought and other urgent domestic issues. 

But, while efforts have been made to ensure the participation of women in this dialogue, it must be more than symbolic otherwise gaps in meaningful gender inclusion could have significant implications on the very survival of the country.
 
One of the challenges for meaningful inclusion is that Ethiopia is a highly patriarchal society. Patriarchal norms and practices permeate all aspects of the country’s social, economic and political life. Women constitute over half of the Ethiopian population and represent 41 per cent of the national parliament.

Nevertheless, most political parties, including those with liberal credentials, are exclusively governed by men, with women taking almost no part in key decision-making processes. As a result, women are relegated to the margins of political and economic activities. 

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won praise for appointing a gender-balanced cabinet in 2018. By 2021, women accounted for just 36 per cent of positions


Though there has been little systematic study of the structural challenges faced by Ethiopian women in politics, women members of political parties encounter many barriers, including political violence, male-coded norms and sexist discourses across Ethiopian society.
 
The nature and scale of political violence perpetrated against women is particularly disempowering and affects their ability to participate in political spaces.

While attitudes to gender equality, sexual violence and gender discrimination are often trivialized, they remain ever-present threats in women’s lives. As late as 2016, a significant minority of men still believed wife-beating to be justified in certain situations. Even when women overcome social pressure to pursue their political ambitions, patriarchal views and practices within political party structures about the role of women significantly undermine their active participation and engagement. 

The political space is even more inaccessible to women with disabilities and in conflict and climate-related crises such as among internally displaced people and in pastoral communities. Male-coded norms ingrained at both party and community levels remain a significant concern. Specifically, sex in exchange for candidacy, inconsiderate working schedules affecting women with children and denial of access to equal information and financial resources are frequently reported as major internal hurdles among political parties.

Closing the gender gap could offer Ethiopia a new beginning

Many political initiatives designed to tackle these gender imbalances often have been driven by short-term political considerations without proper gender-gap assessment and policy analysis. In most cases, the authorities have viewed gender-targeted reforms as acts of benevolence, dispensed by the government, without adopting the legal and financial measures necessary to ensure sustainability and impact.
 
Take, for example, Abiy’s appointment of a 50:50 gender-balanced cabinet in 2018. At the time, much was made about its transformative potential, with the prime minister attracting widespread global approval. Yet, a cabinet reshuffle in 2021 reduced female representation to 36.3 per cent, with far less scrutiny or accountability.

The proposed national dialogue presents an ideal opportunity for Ethiopian women to begin reshaping attitudes


This indicates that gender equality in Ethiopia is not considered a priority but rather an endeavour for more opportune, ‘stable’ times. Without thorough measures that create the conditions for real change, the aspiration of having a gender-balanced cabinet will always be challenging to translate into lasting equal representation.
 
The proposed national dialogue presents an ideal opportunity for Ethiopian women to begin reshaping attitudes and closing the gender gap through their inclusion and participation in the political process. To do so, three issues must be addressed.
 
First, the varying rights of women need to be consolidated, including on identity, constitutional reform and economic issues .

Second, gender equality considerations must be absorbed into mainstream political discourse at all levels.

Third, the experiences of women in the recent war, other ongoing conflicts and past and lingering legacies of political violence targeting women from specific communities, must be acknowledged and remedied. 

If Ethiopia is indeed serious about addressing its asymmetric gender power dynamics, this national dialogue provides an excellent opportunity to begin the process. Genuine participation of women as independent actors, with their own agency, could offer Ethiopia a new beginning.




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Africa in 2023: Continuing political and economic volatility

Africa in 2023: Continuing political and economic volatility Expert comment NCapeling 6 January 2023

Despite few African trade and financial links with Russia and Ukraine, the war in Ukraine will cause civil strife in Africa due to food and energy inflation.

Africa’s economy was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 when a range of internal and external shocks struck such as adverse weather conditions, a devastating locust invasion, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine – all of which worsened already rapidly-rising rates of inflation and borrowing costs.

Although the direct trade and financial linkages of Africa with Russia and Ukraine are small, the war has damaged the continent’s economies through higher commodity prices, higher food, fuel, and headline inflation.

The main impact is on the increasing likelihood of civil strife because of food and energy-fuelled inflation amid an environment of heightened political instability.

Key African economies such as South Africa and Nigeria were already stuck with low growth and many African governments have seen their debt burdens increase – some such as Ethiopia and Ghana now have dollar debt trading at distressed levels – and more countries will follow in 2023.

On average the public sector debt-to-GDP ratio of African countries stood at above 60 per cent in 2022. The era of Chinese state-backed big loans and mega-projects which started 20 years ago in Angola after the end of its civil war may be coming to an end but Chinese private sector investments on the continent will continue through its Belt and Road Initiative and dual circulation model of development.

Great and middle powers building influence

Geopolitical competition in Africa has intensified in 2022, particularly among great powers such as China, Russia, the US, and the EU but also by middle powers such as Turkey, Japan, and the Gulf states.

The sixth AU-EU summit held in Brussels in February 2022 agreed on the principles for a new partnership, although the Russian invasion of Ukraine which followed disrupted these ambitions. Japan’s pledge of $30 billion in aid for Africa at TICAD 8 in August 2022 was clearly made due to the $40 billion pledged at the China–Africa summit in November 2021.

The geopolitical and geoeconomic ramifications of the war in Ukraine has directly impacted the African continent by contributing to food and cooking oil inflation and humanitarian aid delivery

The US also launched a new strategy to strengthen its partnership and held a second US-Africa Leaders’ summit in Washington in December, the first since 2014. Russia’s ambition has been curtailed by its invasion of Ukraine, postponing its second summit with African states to 2023.

The imposition of international sanctions complicated its trade and investments, and military support such as that provided by Russian paramilitary group Wagner focused on Mali, Libya and the Central African Republic (CAR) has been curtailed.

The strategic importance of Africa has resulted in all the UN P5 members calling on the G20 to make the African Union (AU) its 21st member in 2023 under India’s presidency.

International competition to secure Africa’s critical and strategic minerals and energy products intensified in 2022 and, in the energy sector, European countries are seeking to diversify away from Russian oil and gas with alternative supplies, such as those from Africa.

Western mining companies and commodity traders are also increasingly seeking alternative supplies from Africa. Decarbonization is becoming a driver of resource nationalism and geopolitical competition in certain African mining markets, home to large deposits of critical ‘transition minerals’ such as copper, cobalt, graphite, lithium, or nickel.

COP27 was hosted in Egypt in November and gave African leaders an opportunity to shape climate discussions by pushing priority areas such as loss and damage, stranded assets, access to climate finance, adaptation, and desertification. Climate adaptation in Africa is a key condition to preserving economic growth and maintaining social cohesion.

The Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia, is suffering from one of the worst droughts in memory. The geopolitical and geoeconomic ramifications of the war in Ukraine has directly impacted the African continent by contributing to food and cooking oil inflation and humanitarian aid delivery.

Thoughout 2022 the AU was undergoing intensive reform and it struggled to respond to the growing number of security crises across the continent. Hotspots in 2023 will be in the western Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, eastern DRC, and northern Mozambique, all of them crossing state borders.

In Mozambique, a 2019 peace deal assisted by the United Nations (UN) will see the last ex-guerrillas from Renamo demobilized in 2023 to reintegrate into civilian life – some having been recruited in 1978.

Jihadist activity may spread further into coastal states which has resulted in international partners such as France and the UK redesigning their security assistance strategies for the region

In eastern Congo, M23 – one of around 120 armed groups – resumed its conflict against the central government. After lying dormant for several years, it took up arms again in 2021 and has been leading an offensive in eastern DRC against the Congolese army.

According to the UN, Rwanda has been supporting M23, and Kenya’s parliament approved in November the deployment of about 900 soldiers to the DRC as part of a joint military force from the East African Community (EAC) bloc – DRC joined the EAC in March.

In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia saw an uneasy ceasefire agreed between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Islamist militant groups in Africa further expanded their territorial reach in 2022, particularly in the western Sahel where al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates are competing for influence and continued to make inroads.

The drawdown and exit of western forces from Mali, both the French Operation Barkane and international contributions for the UN’s MINUSMA mission there, adds new dimensions to regional security challenges.

Mali’s decision in May to withdraw from the G5 Sahel has also eroded the regional security architecture. Jihadist activity may spread further into coastal states which has resulted in international partners such as France and the UK redesigning their security assistance strategies for the region.

Coups on the increase again

Since 2020, there have been successful military coups in Burkina Faso (twice), Chad, Guinea, Mali (twice), and Sudan, and failed ones in the CAR, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Niger, and possibly Gambia and São Tomé and Príncipe.

Three national elections illustrate the state of African democracy in 2022. In Angola’s August elections, the ruling MPLA lost its absolute majority with the opposition UNITA winning the majority in Luanda for the first time.




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Feasibility, Tolerability, and Preliminary Clinical Response of Fractionated Radiopharmaceutical Therapy with 213Bi-FAPI-46: Pilot Experience in Patients with End-Stage, Progressive Metastatic Tumors

Visual Abstract




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Feasibility of 177Lu-PSMA Administration as Outpatient Procedure for Prostate Cancer




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VBP1 modulates Wnt/{beta}-catenin signaling by mediating the stability of the transcription factors TCF/LEFs [Signal Transduction]

The Wnt/β-catenin pathway is one of the major pathways that regulates embryonic development, adult homeostasis, and stem cell self-renewal. In this pathway, transcription factors T-cell factor and lymphoid enhancer factor (TCF/LEF) serve as a key switch to repress or activate Wnt target gene transcription by recruiting repressor molecules or interacting with the β-catenin effector, respectively. It has become evident that the protein stability of the TCF/LEF family members may play a critical role in controlling the activity of the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway. However, factors that regulate the stability of TCF/LEFs remain largely unknown. Here, we report that pVHL binding protein 1 (VBP1) regulates the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway by controlling the stability of TCF/LEFs. Surprisingly, we found that either overexpression or knockdown of VBP1 decreased Wnt/β-catenin signaling activity in both cultured cells and zebrafish embryos. Mechanistically, VBP1 directly binds to all four TCF/LEF family members and von Hippel-Lindau tumor-suppressor protein (pVHL). Either overexpression or knockdown of VBP1 increases the association between TCF/LEFs and pVHL and then decreases the protein levels of TCF/LEFs via proteasomal degradation. Together, our results provide mechanistic insights into the roles of VBP1 in controlling TCF/LEFs protein stability and regulating Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway activity.




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Agonist-activated glucagon receptors are deubiquitinated at early endosomes by two distinct deubiquitinases to facilitate Rab4a-dependent recycling [Signal Transduction]

The glucagon receptor (GCGR) activated by the peptide hormone glucagon is a seven-transmembrane G protein–coupled receptor (GPCR) that regulates blood glucose levels. Ubiquitination influences trafficking and signaling of many GPCRs, but its characterization for the GCGR is lacking. Using endocytic colocalization and ubiquitination assays, we have identified a correlation between the ubiquitination profile and recycling of the GCGR. Our experiments revealed that GCGRs are constitutively ubiquitinated at the cell surface. Glucagon stimulation not only promoted GCGR endocytic trafficking through Rab5a early endosomes and Rab4a recycling endosomes, but also induced rapid deubiquitination of GCGRs. Inhibiting GCGR internalization or disrupting endocytic trafficking prevented agonist-induced deubiquitination of the GCGR. Furthermore, a Rab4a dominant negative (DN) that blocks trafficking at recycling endosomes enabled GCGR deubiquitination, whereas a Rab5a DN that blocks trafficking at early endosomes eliminated agonist-induced GCGR deubiquitination. By down-regulating candidate deubiquitinases that are either linked with GPCR trafficking or localized on endosomes, we identified signal-transducing adaptor molecule–binding protein (STAMBP) and ubiquitin-specific protease 33 (USP33) as cognate deubiquitinases for the GCGR. Our data suggest that USP33 constitutively deubiquitinates the GCGR, whereas both STAMBP and USP33 deubiquitinate agonist-activated GCGRs at early endosomes. A mutant GCGR with all five intracellular lysines altered to arginines remains deubiquitinated and shows augmented trafficking to Rab4a recycling endosomes compared with the WT, thus affirming the role of deubiquitination in GCGR recycling. We conclude that the GCGRs are rapidly deubiquitinated after agonist-activation to facilitate Rab4a-dependent recycling and that USP33 and STAMBP activities are critical for the endocytic recycling of the GCGR.




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Wildtype {sigma}1 receptor and the receptor agonist improve ALS-associated mutation-induced insolubility and toxicity [Neurobiology]

Genetic mutations related to ALS, a progressive neurological disease, have been discovered in the gene encoding σ-1 receptor (σ1R). We previously reported that σ1RE102Q elicits toxicity in cells. The σ1R forms oligomeric states that are regulated by ligands. Nevertheless, little is known about the effect of ALS-related mutations on oligomer formation. Here, we transfected NSC-34 cells, a motor neuronal cell line, and HEK293T cells with σ1R-mCherry (mCh), σ1RE102Q-mCh, or nontagged forms to investigate detergent solubility and subcellular distribution using immunocytochemistry and fluorescence recovery after photobleaching. The oligomeric state was determined using crosslinking procedure. σ1Rs were soluble to detergents, whereas the mutants accumulated in the insoluble fraction. Within the soluble fraction, peak distribution of mutants appeared in higher sucrose density fractions. Mutants formed intracellular aggregates that were co-stained with p62, ubiquitin, and phosphorylated pancreatic eukaryotic translation initiation factor-2-α kinase in NSC-34 cells but not in HEK293T cells. The aggregates had significantly lower recovery in fluorescence recovery after photobleaching. Acute treatment with σ1R agonist SA4503 failed to improve recovery, whereas prolonged treatment for 48 h significantly decreased σ1RE102Q-mCh insolubility and inhibited apoptosis. Whereas σ1R-mCh formed monomers and dimers, σ1RE102Q-mCh also formed trimers and tetramers. SA4503 reduced accumulation of the four types in the insoluble fraction and increased monomers in the soluble fraction. The σ1RE102Q insolubility was diminished by σ1R-mCh co-expression. These results suggest that the agonist and WT σ1R modify the detergent insolubility, toxicity, and oligomeric state of σ1RE102Q, which may lead to promising new treatments for σ1R-related ALS.




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Nuclear translocation ability of Lipin differentially affects gene expression and survival in fed and fasting Drosophila

Stephanie E. Hood
Dec 1, 2020; 61:1720-1732
Research Articles




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Bioavailability and spatial distribution of fatty acids in the rat retina after dietary omega-3 supplementation

Elisa Vidal
Dec 1, 2020; 61:1733-1746
Research Articles




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Structure dynamics of ApoA-I amyloidogenic variants in small HDL increase their ability to mediate cholesterol efflux

Oktawia Nilsson
Nov 17, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000920v1-jlr.RA120000920
Research Articles




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Structure dynamics of ApoA-I amyloidogenic variants in small HDL increase their ability to mediate cholesterol efflux [Research Articles]

Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) is essential for the transportation of cholesterol between peripheral tissues and the liver. However, specific mutations in Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) are responsible for a late-onset systemic amyloidosis, the pathological accumulation of protein fibrils in tissues and organs. Carriers of these mutations do not exhibit increased cardiovascular disease risk despite displaying reduced levels of ApoA-I/ HDL-cholesterol. To explain this paradox, we show that the HDL particle profile of patients carrying either L75P or L174S ApoA-I amyloidogenic variants a higher relative abundance of the 8.4 nm vs 9.6 nm particles, and that serum from patients, as well as reconstituted 8.4 and 9.6 nm HDL particles (rHDL), possess increased capacity to catalyze cholesterol efflux from macrophages. Synchrotron radiation circular dichroism and hydrogen-deuterium exchange revealed that the variants in 8.4 nm rHDL have altered secondary structure composition and display a more flexible binding to lipids compared to their native counterpart. The reduced HDL-cholesterol levels of patients carrying ApoA-I amyloidogenic variants are thus balanced by higher proportion of small, dense HDL particles and better cholesterol efflux due to altered, region-specific protein structure dynamics.




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Prognostic utility of triglyceride-rich lipoprotein-related markers in patients with coronary artery disease [Research Articles]

TG-rich lipoprotein (TRL)-related biomarkers, including TRL-cholesterol (TRL-C), remnant-like lipoprotein particle-cholesterol (RLP-C), and apoC-III have been associated with atherosclerosis. However, their prognostic values have not been fully determined, especially in patients with previous CAD. This study aimed to examine the associations of TRL-C, RLP-C, and apoC-III with incident cardiovascular events (CVEs) in the setting of secondary prevention of CAD. Plasma TRL-C, RLP-C, and total apoC-III were directly measured. A total of 4,355 participants with angiographically confirmed CAD were followed up for the occurrence of CVEs. During a median follow-up period of 5.1 years (interquartile range: 3.9–6.4 years), 543 (12.5%) events occurred. Patients with incident CVEs had significantly higher levels of TRL-C, RLP-C, and apoC-III than those without events. Multivariable Cox analysis indicated that a log unit increase in TRL-C, RLP-C, and apoC-III increased the risk of CVEs by 49% (95% CI: 1.16–1.93), 21% (95% CI: 1.09–1.35), and 40% (95% CI: 1.11–1.77), respectively. High TRL-C, RLP-C, and apoC-III were also independent predictors of CVEs in individuals with LDL-C levels ≤1.8 mmol/l (n = 1,068). The addition of RLP-C level to a prediction model resulted in a significant increase in discrimination, and all three TRL biomarkers improved risk reclassification. Thus, TRL-C, RLP-C, and apoC-III levels were independently associated with incident CVEs in Chinese CAD patients undergoing statin therapy.




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Accessibility of cholesterol at cell surfaces [Images In Lipid Research]




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Genetic susceptibility, dietary cholesterol intake, and plasma cholesterol levels in a Chinese population [Patient-Oriented and Epidemiological Research]

Accompanied with nutrition transition, non-HDL-C levels of individuals in Asian countries has increased rapidly, which has caused the global epicenter of nonoptimal cholesterol to shift from Western countries to Asian countries. Thus, it is critical to underline major genetic and dietary determinants. In the current study of 2,330 Chinese individuals, genetic risk scores (GRSs) were calculated for total cholesterol (TC; GRSTC, 57 SNPs), LDL-C (GRSLDL-C, 45 SNPs), and HDL-C (GRSHDL-C, 65 SNPs) based on SNPs from the Global Lipid Genetics Consortium study. Cholesterol intake was estimated by a 74-item food-frequency questionnaire. Associations of dietary cholesterol intake with plasma TC and LDL-C strengthened across quartiles of the GRSTC (effect sizes: –0.29, 0.34, 2.45, and 6.47; Pinteraction = 0.002) and GRSLDL-C (effect sizes: –1.35, 0.17, 5.45, and 6.07; Pinteraction = 0.001), respectively. Similar interactions with non-HDL-C were observed between dietary cholesterol and GRSTC (Pinteraction = 0.001) and GRSLDL-C (Pinteraction = 0.004). The adverse effects of GRSTC on TC (effect sizes across dietary cholesterol quartiles: 0.51, 0.82, 1.21, and 1.31; Pinteraction = 0.023) and GRSLDL-C on LDL-C (effect sizes across dietary cholesterol quartiles: 0.66, 0.52, 1.12, and 1.56; Pinteraction = 0.020) were more profound in those having higher cholesterol intake compared with those with lower intake. Our findings suggest significant interactions between genetic susceptibility and dietary cholesterol intake on plasma cholesterol profiles in a Chinese population.




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Bioavailability and spatial distribution of fatty acids in the rat retina after dietary omega-3 supplementation [Research Articles]

Spatial changes of FAs in the retina in response to different dietary n-3 formulations have never been explored, although a diet rich in EPA and DHA is recommended to protect the retina against the effects of aging. In this study, Wistar rats were fed for 8 weeks with balanced diet including either EPA-containing phospholipids (PLs), EPA-containing TGs, DHA-containing PLs, or DHA-containing TGs. Qualitative changes in FA composition of plasma, erythrocytes, and retina were evaluated by gas chromatography-flame ionization detector. Following the different dietary intakes, changes to the quantity and spatial organization of PC and PE species in retina were determined by LC coupled to MS/MS and MALDI coupled to MS imaging. The omega-3 content in the lipids of plasma and erythrocytes suggests that PLs as well as TGs are good omega-3 carriers for retina. However, a significant increase in DHA content in retina was observed, especially molecular species as di-DHA-containing PC and PE, as well as an increase in very long chain PUFAs (more than 28 carbons) following PL-EPA and TG-DHA diets only. All supplemented diets triggered spatial organization changes of DHA in the photoreceptor layer around the optic nerve. Taken together, these findings suggest that dietary omega-3 supplementation can modify the content of FAs in the rat retina.




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Nuclear translocation ability of Lipin differentially affects gene expression and survival in fed and fasting Drosophila [Research Articles]

Lipins are eukaryotic proteins with functions in lipid synthesis and the homeostatic control of energy balance. They execute these functions by acting as phosphatidate phosphatase enzymes in the cytoplasm and by changing gene expression after translocation into the cell nucleus, in particular under fasting conditions. Here, we asked whether nuclear translocation and the enzymatic activity of Drosophila Lipin serve essential functions and how gene expression changes, under both fed and fasting conditions, when nuclear translocation is impaired. To address these questions, we created a Lipin null mutant, a mutant expressing Lipin lacking a nuclear localization signal (LipinNLS), and a mutant expressing enzymatically dead Lipin. Our data support the conclusion that the enzymatic but not nuclear gene regulatory activity of Lipin is essential for survival. Notably, adult LipinNLS flies were not only viable but also exhibited improved life expectancy. In contrast, they were highly susceptible to starvation. Both the improved life expectancy in the fed state and the decreased survival in the fasting state correlated with changes in metabolic gene expression. Moreover, increased life expectancy of fed flies was associated with a decreased metabolic rate. Interestingly, in addition to metabolic genes, genes involved in feeding behavior and the immune response were misregulated in LipinNLS flies. Altogether, our data suggest that the nuclear activity of Lipin influences the genomic response to nutrient availability with effects on life expectancy and starvation resistance. Thus, nutritional or therapeutic approaches that aim at lowering nuclear translocation of lipins in humans may be worth exploring.




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Solvent accessibility changes in a Na+-dependent C4-dicarboxylate transporter suggest differential substrate effects in a multistep mechanism [Membrane Biology]

The divalent anion sodium symporter (DASS) family (SLC13) plays critical roles in metabolic homeostasis, influencing many processes, including fatty acid synthesis, insulin resistance, and adiposity. DASS transporters catalyze the Na+-driven concentrative uptake of Krebs cycle intermediates and sulfate into cells; disrupting their function can protect against age-related metabolic diseases and can extend lifespan. An inward-facing crystal structure and an outward-facing model of a bacterial DASS family member, VcINDY from Vibrio cholerae, predict an elevator-like transport mechanism involving a large rigid body movement of the substrate-binding site. How substrate binding influences the conformational state of VcINDY is currently unknown. Here, we probe the interaction between substrate binding and protein conformation by monitoring substrate-induced solvent accessibility changes of broadly distributed positions in VcINDY using a site-specific alkylation strategy. Our findings reveal that accessibility to all positions tested is modulated by the presence of substrates, with the majority becoming less accessible in the presence of saturating concentrations of both Na+ and succinate. We also observe separable effects of Na+ and succinate binding at several positions suggesting distinct effects of the two substrates. Furthermore, accessibility changes to a solely succinate-sensitive position suggests that substrate binding is a low-affinity, ordered process. Mapping these accessibility changes onto the structures of VcINDY suggests that Na+ binding drives the transporter into an as-yet-unidentified conformational state, involving rearrangement of the substrate-binding site–associated re-entrant hairpin loops. These findings provide insight into the mechanism of VcINDY, which is currently the only structurally characterized representative of the entire DASS family.




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{alpha}-Synuclein facilitates endocytosis by elevating the steady-state levels of phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate [Membrane Biology]

α-Synuclein (α-Syn) is a protein implicated in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease (PD). It is an intrinsically disordered protein that binds acidic phospholipids. Growing evidence supports a role for α-Syn in membrane trafficking, including, mechanisms of endocytosis and exocytosis, although the exact role of α-Syn in these mechanisms is currently unclear. Here we investigate the associations of α-Syn with the acidic phosphoinositides (PIPs), phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate (PI(4,5)P2) and phosphatidylinositol 3,4-bisphosphate (PI(3,4)P2). Our results show that α-Syn colocalizes with PIP2 and the phosphorylated active form of the clathrin adaptor protein 2 (AP2) at clathrin-coated pits. Using endocytosis of transferrin as an indicator for clathrin-mediated endocytosis (CME), we find that α-Syn involvement in endocytosis is specifically mediated through PI(4,5)P2 levels on the plasma membrane. In accord with their effects on PI(4,5)P2 levels, the PD associated A30P, E46K, and A53T mutations in α-Syn further enhance CME in neuronal and nonneuronal cells. However, lysine to glutamic acid substitutions at the KTKEGV repeat domain of α-Syn, which interfere with phospholipid binding, are ineffective in enhancing CME. We further show that the rate of synaptic vesicle (SV) endocytosis is differentially affected by the α-Syn mutations and associates with their effects on PI(4,5)P2 levels, however, with the exception of the A30P mutation. This study provides evidence for a critical involvement of PIPs in α-Syn–mediated membrane trafficking.




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Detection of multiple autoantibodies in patients with ankylosing spondylitis using nucleic acid programmable protein arrays [11. Microarrays/Combinatorics/Display Technology]

Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) is a common, inflammatory rheumatic disease, which primarily affects the axial skeleton and is associated with sacroiliitis, uveitis and enthesitis. Unlike other autoimmune rheumatic diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis or systemic lupus erythematosus, autoantibodies have not yet been reported to be a feature of AS. We therefore wished to determine if plasma from patients with AS contained autoantibodies and if so, characterize and quantify this response in comparison to patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) and healthy controls. Two high-density nucleic acid programmable protein arrays expressing a total of 3498 proteins were screened with plasma from 25 patients with AS, 17 with RA and 25 healthy controls. Autoantigens identified were subjected to Ingenuity Pathway Analysis in order to determine patterns of signalling cascades or tissue origin. 44% of patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis demonstrated a broad autoantibody response, as compared to 33% of patients with RA and only 8% of healthy controls. Individuals with AS demonstrated autoantibody responses to shared autoantigens, and 60% of autoantigens identified in the AS cohort were restricted to that group. The AS patients autoantibody responses were targeted towards connective, skeletal and muscular tissue, unlike those of RA patients or healthy controls. Thus, patients with AS show evidence of systemic humoral autoimmunity and multispecific autoantibody production. Nucleic Acid Programmable Protein Arrays constitute a powerful tool to study autoimmune diseases.




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Proportionality in the Conduct of Hostilities: The Incidental Harm Side of the Assessment

Proportionality in the Conduct of Hostilities: The Incidental Harm Side of the Assessment Research paper sysadmin 6 December 2018

Clarification of international humanitarian law is important in ensuring compliance with the rule of proportionality, but a culture of compliance within armed forces and groups is also crucial.

Members of civil right defence conduct a search and rescue operation on destroyed buildings after an airstrike was carried out over the city of Jisr al-Shughur in Idlib province in Syria, on 6 May 2018. Photo: Hadi Harrat/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

Summary

  • Military operations are taking place with increasing frequency in densely populated areas. Such operations result in loss of life and harm to civilians, as well as damage to civilian objects, (including infrastructure providing essential services). In order to protect civilians, it is imperative that armed forces and groups comply with the rules of international humanitarian law on the conduct of hostilities, including the rule of proportionality.
  • The rule of proportionality prohibits attacks which may be expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated. This research paper analyses the key steps that belligerents must take to give effect to the rule, with a particular focus on one side of proportionality assessments – the expected incidental harm.
  • Those undertaking proportionality assessments before or during an attack must consider whether the expected harm will be caused by the attack, and whether that harm could be expected (that is, was it reasonably foreseeable).
  • For the purpose of proportionality assessments, injury to civilians includes disease, and there is no reason in principle to exclude mental harm, even though it is currently challenging to identify and quantify it. Damage to civilian objects includes damage to elements of the natural environment.
  • Once the incidental harm to be considered has been identified, a value or weight must be assigned to it. This is then balanced against the value or weight of the military advantage anticipated from the attack to determine whether the harm would be excessive.
  • In the determination of whether the expected incidental harm would be excessive compared to the anticipated military advantage, ‘excessive’ is a wide but not indeterminate standard.
  • Belligerents should develop methodologies so that those planning and deciding attacks are provided with all necessary information on expected incidental harm, and to assist them in assigning weight to the incidental harm to be considered.
  • If it becomes apparent that the rule of proportionality will be contravened, the attack in question must be cancelled or suspended.
  • Clarification of the law is important in ensuring compliance with the rule of proportionality, but a culture of compliance within armed forces and groups, inculcated by their leaders, is also crucial.




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Tectonic Politics: Global Political Risk in an Age of Transformation

Tectonic Politics: Global Political Risk in an Age of Transformation Book sysadmin 7 May 2019

Political risk now affects more markets and countries than ever before and that risk will continue to rise. But traditional methods of managing political risk are no longer legitimate or effective.

In Tectonic Politics, Nigel Gould-Davies explores the complex, shifting landscape of political risk and how to navigate it. He analyses trends in each form of political risk: the power to destroy, seize, regulate, and tax.

He shows how each of these forms reflects a deeper transformation of the global political economy that is reordering the relationship between power, wealth, and values. In a world where everything is political, the craft of engagement is as important as the science of production and the art of the deal.

The successful company must integrate that craft—the engager’s way of seeing and doing—into strategy and culture.

Drawing on a career in academia, business, and diplomacy, Gould-Davies provides corporate leaders, scholars, and engaged citizens with a groundbreaking study of the fastest-rising political risk today. ‘As tectonic plates shape the earth,’ he writes, ‘so tectonic politics forges its governance.’

The book is published as part of the Insights series.

Praise for Tectonic Politics

All economic activity involves political risks, but few economic actors know how to analyze or address them. Nigel Gould-Davies demonstrates the central importance of politics to national and international business, and provides a guide to analyzing political risk. Business people, journalists, policymakers, and scholars will all learn from reading Tectonic Politics.

Jeffry Frieden, Stanfield Professor of International Peace, Harvard University

About the author

Nigel Gould-Davies was an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.

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Online Disinformation and Political Discourse: Applying a Human Rights Framework

Online Disinformation and Political Discourse: Applying a Human Rights Framework Research paper sysadmin 5 November 2019

Although some digital platforms now have an impact on more people’s lives than does any one state authority, the international community has been slow to hold to account these platforms’ activities by reference to human rights law.

A man votes in Manhattan, New York City, during the US elections on 8 November 2016. Photo: Getty Images.

This paper examines how human rights frameworks should guide digital technology.

Summary

  • Online political campaigning techniques are distorting our democratic political processes. These techniques include the creation of disinformation and divisive content; exploiting digital platforms’ algorithms, and using bots, cyborgs and fake accounts to distribute this content; maximizing influence through harnessing emotional responses such as anger and disgust; and micro-targeting on the basis of collated personal data and sophisticated psychological profiling techniques. Some state authorities distort political debate by restricting, filtering, shutting down or censoring online networks.
  • Such techniques have outpaced regulatory initiatives and, save in egregious cases such as shutdown of networks, there is no international consensus on how they should be tackled. Digital platforms, driven by their commercial impetus to encourage users to spend as long as possible on them and to attract advertisers, may provide an environment conducive to manipulative techniques.
  • International human rights law, with its careful calibrations designed to protect individuals from abuse of power by authority, provides a normative framework that should underpin responses to online disinformation and distortion of political debate. Contrary to popular view, it does not entail that there should be no control of the online environment; rather, controls should balance the interests at stake appropriately.
  • The rights to freedom of thought and opinion are critical to delimiting the appropriate boundary between legitimate influence and illegitimate manipulation. When digital platforms exploit decision-making biases in prioritizing bad news and divisive, emotion-arousing information, they may be breaching these rights. States and digital platforms should consider structural changes to digital platforms to ensure that methods of online political discourse respect personal agency and prevent the use of sophisticated manipulative techniques.
  • The right to privacy includes a right to choose not to divulge your personal information, and a right to opt out of trading in and profiling on the basis of your personal data. Current practices in collecting, trading and using extensive personal data to ‘micro-target’ voters without their knowledge are not consistent with this right. Significant changes are needed.
  • Data protection laws should be implemented robustly, and should not legitimate extensive harvesting of personal data on the basis of either notional ‘consent’ or the data handler’s commercial interests. The right to privacy should be embedded in technological design (such as by allowing the user to access all information held on them at the click of a button); and political parties should be transparent in their collection and use of personal data, and in their targeting of messages. Arguably, the value of personal data should be shared with the individuals from whom it derives.
  • The rules on the boundaries of permissible content online should be set by states, and should be consistent with the right to freedom of expression. Digital platforms have had to rapidly develop policies on retention or removal of content, but those policies do not necessarily reflect the right to freedom of expression, and platforms are currently not well placed to take account of the public interest. Platforms should be far more transparent in their content regulation policies and decision-making, and should develop frameworks enabling efficient, fair, consistent internal complaints and content monitoring processes. Expertise on international human rights law should be integral to their systems.
  • The right to participate in public affairs and to vote includes the right to engage in public debate. States and digital platforms should ensure an environment in which all can participate in debate online and are not discouraged from standing for election, from participating or from voting by online threats or abuse.




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AI-driven Personalization in Digital Media: Political and Societal Implications

AI-driven Personalization in Digital Media: Political and Societal Implications Research paper sysadmin 2 December 2019

The fallout from disinformation and online manipulation strategies have alerted Western democracies to the novel, nuanced vulnerabilities of our information society. This paper outlines the implications of the adoption of AI by the the legacy media, as well as by the new media, focusing on personalization.

The Reuters and other news apps seen on an iPhone, 29 January 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • Machine learning (ML)-driven personalization is fast expanding from social media to the wider information space, encompassing legacy media, multinational conglomerates and digital-native publishers: however, this is happening within a regulatory and oversight vacuum that needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency.
  • Mass-scale adoption of personalization in communication has serious implications for human rights, societal resilience and political security. Data protection, privacy and wrongful discrimination, as well as freedom of opinion and of expression, are some of the areas impacted by this technological transformation.
  • Artificial intelligence (AI) and its ML subset are novel technologies that demand novel ways of approaching oversight, monitoring and analysis. Policymakers, regulators, media professionals and engineers need to be able to conceptualize issues in an interdisciplinary way that is appropriate for sociotechnical systems.
  • Funding needs to be allocated to research into human–computer interaction in information environments, data infrastructure, technology market trends, and the broader impact of ML systems within the communication sector.
  • Although global, high-level ethical frameworks for AI are welcome, they are no substitute for domain- and context-specific codes of ethics. Legacy media and digital-native publishers need to overhaul their editorial codes to make them fit for purpose in a digital ecosystem transformed by ML. Journalistic principles need to be reformulated and refined in the current informational context in order to efficiently inform the ML models built for personalized communication.
  • Codes of ethics will not by themselves be enough, so current regulatory and legislative frameworks as they relate to media need to be reassessed. Media regulators need to develop their in-house capacity for thorough research and monitoring into ML systems, and – when appropriate –proportionate sanctions for actors found to be employing such systems towards malign ends. Collaboration with data protection authorities, competition authorities and national electoral commissions is paramount for preserving the integrity of elections and of a political discourse grounded on democratic principles.
  • Upskilling senior managers and editorial teams is fundamental if media professionals are to be able to engage meaningfully and effectively with data scientists and AI engineers.




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Secrets and Spies: UK Intelligence Accountability After Iraq and Snowden

Secrets and Spies: UK Intelligence Accountability After Iraq and Snowden Book sysadmin 15 January 2020

How can democratic governments hold intelligence and security agencies to account when what they do is largely secret? Jamie Gaskarth explores how intelligence professionals view accountability in the context of 21st century politics.

Using the UK as a case study, this book provides the first systematic exploration of how accountability is understood inside the secret world. It is based on new interviews with current and former UK intelligence practitioners, as well as extensive research into the performance and scrutiny of the UK intelligence machinery.

The result is the first detailed analysis of how intelligence professionals view their role, what they feel keeps them honest, and how far external overseers impact on their work.

The UK gathers material that helps inform global decisions on such issues as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, transnational crime, and breaches of international humanitarian law. On the flip side, the UK was a major contributor to the intelligence failures leading to the Iraq war in 2003, and its agencies were complicit in the widely discredited U.S. practices of torture and ‘rendition’ of terrorism suspects. UK agencies have come under greater scrutiny since those actions, but it is clear that problems remain.

Secrets and Spies is the result of a British Academy funded project (SG151249) on intelligence accountability. The book is published as part of the Insights series.

Praise for Secrets and Spies

Open society is increasingly defended by secret means. For this reason, oversight has never been more important. This book offers a new exploration of the widening world of accountability for UK intelligence, encompassing informal as well as informal mechanisms. It substantiates its claims well, drawing on an impressive range of interviews with senior figures. This excellent book offers both new information and fresh interpretations. It will have a major impact.

Richard Aldrich, Professor of International Security, University of Warwick, UK

About the author

Jamie Gaskarth is Professor of Foreign Policy and International Relations at The Open University. He was previously senior lecturer at the University of Birmingham where he taught strategy and decision-making. His research focused on the ethical dilemmas of leadership and accountability in intelligence, foreign policy, and defence. He is author/editor or co-editor of six books and served on the Academic Advisory panel for the 2015 UK National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review.

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War Time: Temporality and the Decline of Western Military Power

War Time: Temporality and the Decline of Western Military Power Book dora.popova 22 February 2021

In War Time the Western way of war, its pace and timing, are discussed and analysed by experts who question the West’s ability to maintain its military superiority given the political and strategic failures of interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In War Time, war studies experts examine the trajectory of Western military power. They discuss conflicting perceptions of time anchored within Western political and military institutions, and the Western attachment to fast-paced warfare at the expense of longer-term political solutions.

Divided into three sections, the book covers ‘civic militarism’ and the trajectory of Western power, Western perceptions of time and the international normative order, and military operations and temporality. War Time explains why the West has been overwhelmingly powerful on the battlefield and yet strategically and politically weak as exemplified by the return of the Taliban and the hasty evacuation of troops and personnel from Afghanistan.

The book identifies policies that decision-makers must adopt to stave off the decline of Western military dominance.

This book is part of the Insights series.

 

Watch the event

A special event was held in March 2021 to mark the launch of the book. View the event here.

Praise for War Time

War Time is a provocative consideration of the many aspects of modern military power in politics and international affairs. Though the nature of war doesn’t change, this book is particularly relevant given the changing character of modern war as we see in the Caucasus, Ukraine, the Sahel, and the Indo-Pacific region. Essential reading for political leaders, diplomats, and strategic thinkers.

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Ben Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, Center for European Policy Analysis; Commander, United States Army Europe, 2014–2017

About the editors

Sten Rynning is professor of war studies at the University of Southern Denmark.

Olivier Schmitt is professor with special responsibilities at the Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark, and currently director of research and studies at the French Institute for Higher National Defence Studies.

Amelie Theussen is assistant professor at the Center for War Studies, University of 
Southern Denmark.

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Belarusians’ views on the political crisis - April 2021

Belarusians’ views on the political crisis - April 2021 Other resource NCapeling 11 June 2021

Results of a public opinion poll conducted between 20 and 30 April 2021.

Chatham House surveyed a total of 937 respondents between 20 and 30 April 2021. Our survey sample corresponds to the general structure of Belarus’s urban population and is corrected and weighted by gender, age, size of respondents’ town of residence and education level.

Summary

  • After Lukashenka, the most known political figures in Belarus are pro-protest politicians: Tsikhanouskaya, Babaryka, Tsikhanouski, Kalesnikava, Tsapkala and Latushka. Viktar Babaryka is the most popular presidential candidate among Belarusian urban citizens, and Lukashenka comes second to him.
  • State organizations and bodies are still mistrusted by more than half the population, while the army is slightly more popular than other bodies. Independent media, labour unions and human rights organizations are trusted far more than state ones.
  • Russia leads when it comes to positive attitudes to foreign states: one in three Belarusians feel very positive about their neighbour and 79 per cent feel positive in general. 71 per cent Belarusians feel positive about China, which is the next highest indicator. Despite propaganda efforts, Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland and EU states in general are still perceived positively by more than 60 per cent of Belarusians, with fewer than 20 per cent feeling negative about them.
  • The position on Russian interference in the Belarusian political crisis is consolidated enough: 58 per cent think that Russia should remain neutral. The rest are almost equally divided between those who think Russia should support the protest movement (19 per cent) and those who think Russia should support Lukashenka (23 per cent).
  • 40 per cent have changed their attitude to the Russian government since it supported Lukashenka in the crisis, and 73 per cent are sure that Russia is his sole support.
  • While 32 per cent of Belarusians see union with Russia as the most appropriate foreign policy, 46 per cent would like to be in a union with both Russia and the EU simultaneously.
  • Almost half the population thinks that Belarusian foreign policy in the event of a pro-protest government coming to power would be oriented toward friendship and cooperation with both Russia and the West, which correlates with how the majority thinks it should be. Although 42 per cent expect foreign policy would lean toward the EU in that situation, which is less acceptable: only 25 per cent think it ‘should’.
  • The proportion of respondents who think Belarus should remain in the Collective Security Treaty Organization is 58 per cent, while 35 per cent would like to see Belarus not belonging to any military bloc and a small share (seven per cent) would prefer Belarus to join NATO.
  • Almost half of the population considers Lukashenka to be the major obstacle for political stability and economic development and is sure he does not care about, and in fact is a threat to, independence.
  • In general, most Belarusians have a consolidated opinion that the authorities should start negotiating with opponents and free all political prisoners.
  • More than half of Belarusians think that Lukashenka must leave immediately or before the end of 2021, while 27 per cent think he should leave when his term ends in 2025. The opinion that Lukashenka should rule for another term beginning in 2025 is marginal – only ten per cent support this.
  • Expectations are not so optimistic though: only 26 per cent believe he will leave office this year. One in three thinks he will leave in 2025; a further 19 per cent say that he will stay on for further terms in office.
  • If Lukashenka doesn’t leave, people expect an increase in emigration and unemployment, the continuation of repression in all areas of life, falling exchange rates and the tightening of dependency on Russia.
  • Opinion on abortions is still consolidated, with only 19 per cent thinking they should be banned in most or all cases. The same applies to Lukashenka’s infamous statement that society in Belarus is not ready to have a female president: only 20 per cent agree with the opinion.
  • 52 per cent don’t think there is a problem of wage inequality between men and women in Belarus, while 37 per cent do see an issue.

Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings




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Belarusians’ views on the political crisis - Nov 2021

Belarusians’ views on the political crisis - Nov 2021 Other resource NCapeling 20 January 2022

Results of a public opinion poll conducted between 1 and 10 November 2021.

Chatham House surveyed a total of 767 respondents between 1 and 10 November 2021. Our survey sample corresponds to the general structure of Belarus’s urban population and is adjusted by gender, age, education level and the size of respondents’ place of residence.

Summary

  • After Aliaksandr Lukashenka, the most well-known political figures in Belarus are the protest leaders: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Viktar Babaryka, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, Valery Tsapkala, Marya Kalesnikava and Pavel Latushka.
  • Lukashenka and Babaryka have the highest popularity ratings among Belarus’s urban population. At the same time, Lukashenka has a high negative rating: half of the city residents surveyed say that they would never vote for him. Babaryka has one of the lowest negative ratings in the country.
  • The popularity ratings of pro-government politicians are low, and their negative ratings remain extremely high, although the latter have decreased slightly in comparison with July 2021. The popularity ratings of protest leaders are significantly higher than those of politicians who support the current government.
  • Trust in state and independent organizations is polarized along political lines. Thus, respondents classed as hardcore protesters do not trust state structures and do trust independent ones, while Lukashenka’s supporters hold the opposite positions.
  • Belarusians’ geopolitical orientations remain stable. The most widely preferred option for a geopolitical union is simultaneous integration with the EU and Russia.
  • Belarusians have become increasingly negative about the possibility that Russian airbases could be established on Belarusian territory (48 per cent in November 2021, compared to 39 per cent in July 2021).
  • Belarusians are now feeling more strongly that the situation concerning the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened: in November, more than half were beginning to respond that Belarus is unable to cope with the spread of coronavirus.
  • Sanctions against Lukashenka and those around him are supported more widely than sanctions against state enterprises.
  • Belarusians feel there is acute social tension in their country: almost everyone surveyed states that social tension exists, while one in every five respondents considers the situation catastrophic. A perception that there is social tension is closely related to many factors, with the strongest of all being a sense of a lack of personal safety.
  • Only one-third of Belarusians are prepared to call the state built under Lukashenka their own. Most of the survey respondents do not trust this state to some degree, and do not believe that the state protects the interests of Belarusian citizens.

Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings

Belarusians’ views on the political crisis (PDF)

Взгляды белорусов на политический кризис (PDF)