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Tully: The truth is, we need more politicians like Joe Donnelly

Bipartisanship doesn't score you many points in politics these days. But it should, and Sen. Joe Donnelly is a perfect example of why.

       




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Indianapolis remembers Matt Tully

We miss you, friend.

       




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Matt Tully's legacy: A fund to support early childhood education

Matt Tully was dedicated to his craft and to this community. The Matthew L. Tully Memorial Fund is a meaningful way to keep his memory and work alive.

       




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Brownsburg Little League off to hot start in pool play of state tournament

Brownsburg, Broad Ripple Haverford fighting for spots in Great Lakes Regional.

      




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For Plainfield inmates, gardening is 'something positive in a kind of negative environment'

Plainfield Correctional Facility inmates donate fruits and vegetables from their garden to community organizations.

      




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Avon passes first test of adversity, responds with emphatic second half vs. Fishers

Avon, the top-ranked team in Class 6A, found itself in unfamiliar territory on Friday night — trailing by two touchdowns early in a game.

      




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Winter pow wow honors Native American tradition in Danville

The Hendricks County 4-H Fairgrounds hosted a Winter pow wow put on by Indianapolis Tecumseh Lodge, Danville, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020.

      




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Plainfield police officer arrested on suspicion of driving while intoxicated

An off-duty Plainfield police officer was arrested Friday night on suspicion of driving while intoxicated.

      




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IHSAA basketball: Plainfield spoils Greenwood party as Mid-State title still up for grabs

Plainfield picked up a 59-42 win over Greenwoon on Friday night, and still has eyes on Mid-State title.

      




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This Brownsburg teen saves abandoned potbellied pigs at Oinking Acres

Olivia Head, 17, founded Oinking Acres in Brownsburg and has rescued up to 160 potbellied pigs and some other animals.

       




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Could Germany afford Irish, Greek and Portuguese default?

The Western world remains where it has been for some time, delicately poised between anaemic recovery and a shock that could tip us back into economic contraction.

Perhaps the most conspicuous manifestation of the instability is that investors can't make up their minds whether the greater risk comes from surging inflation that stems largely from China's irrepressible growth or the deflationary impact of the unsustainable burden of debt on peripheral and not-so-peripheral eurozone (and other) economies.

And whence do investors flee when it all looks scary and uncertain, especially when there's a heightened probability of specie debasement - to gold, of course.

Unsurprisingly, with the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, implying that a writedown of Greece's sovereign obligations is an option, and with consumer inflation in China hitting 5.4% in March, there has been a flight to the putative safety of precious metal: the gold price hit a new record of $1,480.50 per ounce for June delivery yesterday and could well break through $1,500 within days (say the analysts). Silver is hitting 30-year highs.

In a way, if a sovereign borrower were to turn €100bn of debts (for example) into an obligation to repay 70bn euros, that would be a form of inflation - it has the same economic impact, a degradation of value, for the lender. But it is a localised inflation; only the specific creditors suffer directly (though there may be all sorts of spillover damage for others).

And only this morning there was another blow to the perceived value of a chunk of euro-denominated sovereign obligations. Moody's has downgraded Irish government debt to one level above junk - which is the equivalent of a bookmaker lengthening the odds the on that country's ability to avoid controlled or uncontrolled default.

Some would say that the Irish government has made a start in writing down debt, with the disclosure by the Irish finance minister Michael Noonan yesterday that he would want to impose up to 6bn euros of losses on holders of so-called subordinated loans to Irish banks.

But I suppose the big story in the eurozone, following the decision by the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, is that the region's excessive government and bank debts are more likely to be cut down to manageable size by a restructuring - writedowns of the amount owed - than by generalised inflation that erodes the real value of the principal.

The decision of the ECB to raise rates has to be seen as a policy decision that - in a worst case - a sovereign default by an Ireland, or Greece or Portugal would be less harmful than endemic inflation.

But is that right? How much damage would be wreaked if Greece or Ireland or Portugal attempted to reduce the nominal amount they owe to levels they felt they could afford?

Let's push to one side the reputational and economic costs to those countries - which are quite big things to ignore, by the way - and simply look at the damage to external creditors from a debt write down.

And I am also going to ignore the difference between a planned, consensual reduction in sums owed - a restructuring that takes place with the blessing of the rest of the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund - and a unilateral declaration of de facto bankruptcy by a Greece, Ireland or Portugal (although the shock value of the latter could have much graver consequences for the health of the financial system).

So the first question is how much of the impaired debt is held by institutions and investors that could not afford to take the losses.

Now I hope it isn't naive to assume that pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds and central banks that hold Greek, or Irish or Portuguese debt can cope with losses generated by a debt restructuring.

The reason for mild optimism in that sense is that those who finance investments made by pension funds and insurers - that's you and me by the way - can't get their money out quickly or easily. We simply have to grin and bear the losses to the value of our savings, when the stewards of our savings make lousy investment decisions.

As for hedge funds, when they make bad bets, they can suffer devastating withdrawals of finance by their investors, as and when the returns generated swing from positive to negative. But so long as those hedge funds haven't borrowed too much, so long as they are not too leveraged - and most aren't these days - the impact on the financial system shouldn't be significant.

Finally, if the European Central Bank - for example - ends up incurring big losses on its substantial holdings of Greek, Portuguese and Irish debt, it can always be recapitalised by solvent eurozone nations, notably by Germany and France.

However this is to ignore the node of fragility in the financial system, the faultline - which is the banking industry.

In the financial system's network of interconnecting assets and liabilities, it is the banks as a cluster that always have the potential to amplify the impact of debt writedowns, in a way that can wreak wider havoc.

That's built into their main function, as maturity transformers. Since banks' creditors can always demand their money back at whim, but banks can't retrieve their loans from their creditors (homeowners, businesses, governments), bank losses above the norm can be painful both for banks and for the rest of us.

Any event that undermines confidence in the safety of money lent to banks, will - in a best case - make it more difficult for a bank to borrow and lend, and will, in the worst case, tip the bank into insolvency.


Which, of course, is what we saw on a global systemic scale from the summer of 2007 to the end of 2008. That's when creditors to banks became increasingly anxious about potential losses faced by banks from a great range of loans and investments, starting with US sub-prime.

So what we need to know is whether the banking system could afford losses generated by Greek, Irish and Portuguese defaults.

And to assess this, we need to know how much overseas banks have lent to the governments of these countries and also - probably - to the banks of these countries, in that recent painful experience has told us that bank liabilities become sovereign liabilities, when the going gets tough.

According to the latest published analysis by the Bank for International Settlements (the central bankers'central bank), the total exposure of overseas banks to the governments and banks of Greece, Portugal and Ireland is "just" $362.2bn, or £224bn,

Now let's make the heroic guess that a rational writedown of this debt to a sustainable level would see a third of it written off - which would generate $121bn (£75bn) of losses for banks outside the countries concerned.

If those loans were spread relatively evenly between banks around the world, losses on that scale would be a headache, but nothing worse.

But this tainted cookie doesn't crumble quite like that. Just under a third of the relevant exposure to public sector and banks of the three debt-challenged states, some $118bn, sits on the balance sheets of German banks, according to the BIS.

For all the formidable strength of the German economy, the balance sheets of Germany's banks are by no means the strongest in the world. German banks would not be able to shrug off $39bn or £24bn of potential losses on Portuguese, Irish and Greek loans as a matter of little consequence.

This suggests that it is in the German national interest to help Portugal, Ireland and Greece avoid default.

If you are a Greek, Portuguese or Irish citizen this might bring on something of a wry smile - because you would probably be aware that the more punitive of the bailout terms imposed by the eurozone on these countries (or about to be imposed in Portugal's case) is the expression of a German desire to spank reckless borrowers.

But as I have mentioned here before, reckless lending can be the moral (or immoral) equivalent of reckless borrowing. And German banks were not models of Lutheran prudence in that regard.

If punitive bailout terms make it more likely that Ireland, Greece or Portugal will eventually default, you might wonder whether there has been an element of masochism in the German government's negotiating position.




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The corporate story behind GDP challenge

A clutch of big company results today illustrate the big economic trends in the UK and the world - and also say something about what the UK economy needs if its insipid recovery is to become something a bit stronger.

First the good news.

ARM, the world-leading designer of electronic chips for smartphones, tablets and consumer devices, saw revenues rise 29% in the first three months of the year and profits increase 35% (to £51m).

If we had a few more ARMs in this country, we would be agonising less about the imperative of "rebalancing" the structure of our wealth-creation away from financial services and the City.

That said, we'd need an incredible number of ARMs to make a dent in the high unemployment figures, because ARM simply licences its technology to the likes of Apple and LG, which put the chips into their devices. Or to put it another way, ARM's success is in exploiting the grey matter of a few boffins: it manufactures nothing.

Now part of the drag on Britain's recovery is the burden of debt on households and the impact of rising commodity prices on consumers' spending power.

You can see some of that in the first half figures of Associated British Foods, which points out that world sugar prices are at a 30-year high and that there has been a sugar shortage in Europe. ABF's sugar, grocery and agriculture profits were up substantially (sugar by 27%).

ABF's Primark chain of shops, whose prices tend to be the lowest on the high street, seems to have benefited from shoppers desire to trade down and economise, since underlying or like-for-like sales rose 3%. But although that looks okay compared with competitors, it was half the rate of last year's increase.

A further manifestation of all that borrowing in the euphoric years, before the bubble burst in 2007-8, is another set of uninspiring financial results from Heathrow and Stansted airports, and their holding company, BAA (SP) limited.

The losses of the two London airports increased 8% to £211.5m and net debt in BAA (SP) was flat at a substantial £9.9bn. Net debt at the next corporate level up, BAA (SH) plc was a chunky £10.4bn, against a regulated asset base of £13bn (which moved in the right direction by 2.7%).

BAA was acquired by the Spanish group Ferrovial and partners at the height of the debt-fuelled buyout boom of 2006 - and although BAA would argue that operational performance has improved, there is a question about when if ever the owners will ever see a return on their enormous investment.

Meanwhile, in spite of the rising trend of commodities and energy, including oil, BP's profits in the first three months of the year actually fell a fraction to $5.5bn. You can see the impact of higher oil prices in a near trebling of profits to $2.1bn made in refining and marketing - but there was a significant fall in production, some of it related to the Gulf of Mexico disaster.

The fundamental BP story is that the risks and costs of extracting energy are on a secular rising trend - for which we all pay a price.

Last but never least is Barclays and its figures for the first quarter of 2011 - which show top line income lower than the first quarter of last year and below the last quarter of last year. As for profits, they were up a bit or down a bit, depending on what view you take of whether changes in the notional value of Barclays' own borrowings should be included.

The unambiguous trend is a sharp reduction in the charge of debts and investments going bad - which was 39% lower compared with a year ago and 33% down on a three-month comparison.

As for lending, loans to retail customers rose by just under £1bn to £229bn since the end of 2010 - which is neither here nor there for a bank of Barclays' size. And the overall value of Barclays' loans and investments, on a risk-weighted basis, fell 1.5% over 12 months to £392bn.

For Barclays and other big western banks, it's no longer about growing their balance sheets, about lending more and more. Their long term recovery requires deleveraging, shrinking, which is the corollary of the perceived need for western consumers and governments to pay down their respective debts.

Here's the painful part: we may need banks to become smaller, but we all suffer if in the process they starve job-creating businesses of vital finance.

Those who fear the worst won't be reassured by figures just released by the British Bankers Association (BBA), which show that net lending to non-financial businesses by banks fell £3.2bn in March.

The BBA blames weak demand from companies. And although Barclays and the other banks have promised the Treasury, in their Project Merlin agreement, that they will meet the credit needs of the economy, my electronic postbag indicates that there remains quite a gap between their perception of deserving borrowers and yours.

Update 11:15: As some of you have pointed out, ARM saw its profits increase to £51m not £51bn, as I originally said, whilst losses at the two London airports increased to £211.5m, not £211.5bn. Sorry for my brainstorm. I've probably been dealing in billions a little too often recently - due to the magnitude of our recent financial crisis.




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RBS opposes internal firewalls

Although Royal Bank of Scotland is back in loss on a so-called statutory basis, having made the tiniest of profits in the final three months of last year, that doesn't really tell the story of what has been going on at this semi-nationalised bank.

For the record, the statutory attributable loss was £528m in the three months to March 31, compared with a profit of £12m in the last quarter of 2010 and a £248m loss in the first quarter of 2010.

But, as is par for the course with big, complex universal banks, these numbers do almost as much to obscure as to enlighten.

They are, for example, heavily influenced by changes in the valuation of debt sold by Royal Bank of Scotland to investors and of credit insurance bought from taxpayers in the form of the Asset Protection Scheme.

There was a loss of not far off £1bn on these items. Now it's moot whether it really enhances our understanding of Royal Bank of Scotland's performance that the value of these contracts - which can't be broken at a moment's notice - have moved against RBS.

More important, I think, is that operating profits of RBS's retail and commercial operations are almost a fifth better than a year ago at £1.9bn, though a little bit lower than in the fourth quarter of 2010.

The trend at RBS's global banking and markets business - what most would call its investment banking arm - was more volatile. Operating profits were £1.1bn in the latest period, double what was generated in the final quarter of 2010, but a third less than the bumper first three months of last year.

For the bank as a whole, the charge for debts going bad seems to be on an unambiguously declining trend, from £2.7bn in the first quarter of 2010, to £2.1bn in the final quarter of last year, and just under £2bn in the latest quarterly figures.

As for other important measures, RBS is succeeding in widening the gap between what it charges for credit and what it has to pay to borrow (good for shareholders, not always welcomed by customers) - and overheads appear to be under control.

So there is progress towards re-establishing RBS as thriving, growing business, which could prosper without the benefit of exceptional support from taxpayers - although that progress goes by fits and starts rather than in one giant leap (witness, as with Lloyds, a big increase in losses on lending to the troubled Irish economy).

What will perhaps spark some controversy is that the provision of credit to small businesses fell 7%. And, once again, RBS puts this down to a weakness of demand rather than a lack of any determination on its part to supply - but that doesn't enlighten on whether it's the unattractive borrowing terms on offer that puts off some potential business borrowers.

Also RBS has gone on the record for the first time with its opposition to the proposal from the Independent Banking Commission that internal firewalls should be erected inside giant banks such as RBS.

RBS says that the Independent Banking Commission's recommendation that universal banks like it should erect internal firewalls, or should put their retail and investment banking operations into separate insulated subsidiaries, are "likely to add to bank costs - impacting both customers and shareholders -without the safety gains that the broader Basel process is delivering" (the Basel process is the global negotiations on strengthening banks).

It is also striking that RBS signals that it isn't overjoyed at the unilateral decision made yesterday by Lloyds to chuck in the towel in the banks' legal battle against the regulators' judgement that they should make comprehensive restitution to those mis-sold PPI loan insurance. The banks says: "a decision on appeal of the court case...has not yet been made as it relates to important other issues of retrospective regulation".

As I've mentioned before, if RBS follows Lloyds's lead and offers a comprehensive PPI settlement, that would probably cost the bank a bit more than £1bn, about a third of the cost to Lloyds.

And if we're in the business of comparing the two partly nationalised mega banks, Lloyds and RBS, both still look some way from being in a fit state to see taxpayers' huge stakes privatised at a profit to all of us.

However if Lloyds entered the reporting season looking as though it was nearer to privatisation than RBS, their respective latest results probably show RBS inching forward a bit in that journey and Lloyds perhaps retreating slightly.




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Power vs. Pagenaud: How we got here

INDIANAPOLIS – A pair of Team Penske drivers for one Verizon IndyCar Series championship. That's what awaits Sonoma Raceway for next week's season finale.

      




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IndyCar debate: Will Pagenaud or Power win series title?

SONOMA, Calif. — Simon Pagenaud's excellence this Verizon IndyCar Series season can be summed with two words: One mistake.

       




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'Business absolutely as normal' for Power, Pagenaud

SONOMA, Calif. – For a weekend with an IndyCar Series championship on the line and a season climaxing at Sonoma Raceway, there might not be two more relaxed drivers than Simon Pagenaud and Will Power.

       




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What Indianapolis-area schools are saying about the coronavirus in Indiana

As the first cases of Hoosiers who test positive for COVID-19 are confirmed, schools in central Indiana are continuing to keep families updated.

      




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List of Indianapolis-area coronavirus school closings

As national, state and local officials consider ways to slow the spread of COVID-19, many are closing schools.

      




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Virtual class, canceled travel: Indiana colleges and universities respond to coronavirus

Schools across the state are suspending in-person instruction, canceling travel and asking students to stay away.

      




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How Indianapolis helps first responders get child care

The city of Indianapolis is offering discounted child care services to families of first responders. Here's why healthy practices are so important to combat the coronavirus.

      




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Indianapolis police investigating homicide on city's northwest side

Indianapolis Metropolitan police are investigating after a man was found shot on the city's northwest side Thursday night.

      




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When school resumes in the fall, what will it look like? Here are the possibilities.

The first day of the 2020-2021 school year is just a few months away. Will kids be back in classrooms or continue logging on?

       




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Coronavírus: por que alguns pacientes já recuperados voltam a ter teste positivo para covid-19, segundo OMS

Infectologista da organização explica que células mortas expelidas do pulmão fazem exames darem positivo mais de uma vez — mas não necessariamente quer dizer que a pessoa voltou a ficar infectada pelo coronavírus.




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'Bolsonaro é líder mais isolado do populismo de direita hoje', diz pesquisador do extremismo político

Para Cas Mudde, que há três décadas estuda movimentos de ultradireita, presidente brasileiro pode sair politicamente enfraquecido da pandemia de covid-19.




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Bolsonaro terá 'centrão', mas impeachment pode avançar se houver apoio popular, dizem autores de pedido

Ciro Gomes (PDT), Kim Kataguiri (DEM), Joice Hasselmann (PSL), Alessandro Molon (PSB) e outros autores de pedidos de impeachment de Bolsonaro avaliam as chances do impedimento prosseguir no Congresso.




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Por que 1ª pessoa infectada por coronavírus no Brasil pode nunca ser descoberta

Especialistas apontam que propagação de vírus pode ter começado antes de 25 de fevereiro, quando primeiro paciente foi diagnosticado com a covid-19.




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Quanto tempo uma pessoa leva para se recuperar da covid-19

Recuperação pode ser um processo lento, dependendo da gravidade do quadro.




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Coronavírus: o mapa interativo que mostra as medidas e tipos de isolamento adotados na América Latina

Mapa interativo mostra medidas que países vizinhos vêm tomando desde primeiros casos registrados de covid-19 para restringir movimento dos cidadãos.




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Coronavírus: quantos casos e mortes por covid-19 há em sua cidade?

Buscador interativo permite consultar dados oficiais de todos os municípios afetados pelo vírus até o momento no Brasil.




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'Coronavírus pode acabar com minha oportunidade de ser mãe': mulheres sofrem com suspensão de tratamento de fertilidade

Casais com problemas de fertilidade que estavam passando por processo de fertilização in vitro no Brasil temem perder chance de ter filhos por causa da pandemia.




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Remessas de brasileiros nos EUA caem até 90%, mas podem aliviar auge da crise no Brasil

Como crise atingiu primeiro americanos, na opinião de analistas e operadores de empresas de remessas migrantes devem se recuperar financeiramente a tempo de socorrer familiares em suas cidades originais.




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Coronavírus: as posturas conflitantes de Elon Musk e Mark Zuckerberg diante da pandemia

Enquanto o fundador do Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, apoia medidas de isolamento, Elon Musk, da Tesla, está cada vez mais cético.




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Coronavírus: inércia política aumenta número de mortes, indica estudo

Intervenções drásticas (como a imposição de isolamento rigoroso) até 25 dias depois da primeira morte confirmada é capaz de impedir até 80% de novas mortes por coronavírus em um país, aponta pesquisa.




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Coronavírus: 'Devo usar máscara? Posso pegar duas vezes?' Essas e outras perguntas sobre a covid-19

BBC preparou lista de perguntas e respostas sobre covid-19.




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Coronavírus pode ser só 'ensaio' de uma próxima grande pandemia, diz médico e matemático da USP

Eduardo Massad diz que próxima pandemia depois de coronavírus deve ser avassaladora e defende que o mundo aprenda mais sobre medidas de distanciamento social.




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Coronavírus: os sete tipos de pessoas que inventam e disseminam fake news

Investigamos centenas de histórias enganosas durante a pandemia. Isso nos deu uma ideia sobre quem está por trás da desinformação - e o que os motiva. Aqui estão sete tipos de pessoas que iniciam e espalham falsidades.




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Forças Armadas não apoiarão ruptura da democracia, avaliam ex-ministros da Defesa

Apoio da caserna a Bolsonaro não se estenderá a uma eventual tentativa de ruptura institucional, dizem ex-titulares da Defesa ouvidos pela BBC News Brasil.




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Diretor da PF foi trocado para garantir mudança de chefia no RJ, diz Moro em depoimento

'Você tem 27 Superintendências, eu quero apenas uma, a do Rio de Janeiro', teria dito Bolsonaro a Moro. Primeira ação do novo diretor-geral da PF foi trocar comando no Rio.




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Destruição de armas apreendidas cai no primeiro ano do governo Bolsonaro, aponta levantamento

Desde 2017, a intenção do poder público vinha sendo acelerar destruições, que evitam que armas caiam nas mãos do crime; órgãos públicos não sabem explicar a razão da queda.




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Lockdown pode terminar em 'tiro e morte', diz prefeito de Manaus

Arthur Virgílio Neto chora ao citar agressões a coveiros e mortes, e recorre a Greta Thunberg: 'Terrível seria pirralho governando o país'. Mortes na capital do Amazonas passaram da média histórica de 20 a 30 por dia para o patamar de 120.




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'Mind Your Banners' podcast: Time to answer your questions

IU Insider Zach Osterman sits down with Chronic Hoosier to answer your questions, talking everything from IU sports to Btown eats to memories and more

       




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'There's no more important issue in collegiate sports.' How IU, Big Ten approach mental health

Key players at IU: Mental health providers battle depression among athletes

       




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Preps Podcast: What's happening in recruiting, concerns about fall sports

Kyle Neddenriep and Matt Glenesk discuss sports after the coronavirus hits, what is happening in recruiting, concerns about fall sports and more.

       




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Kathy Loggan, wife of late North Central AD Paul Loggan named IndyStar Sports Mom of the Year

Kathy Loggan (middle), wife of the late Paul Loggan, talks alongside her kids Sami (left), Will (middle left) and Michael, with his fiancé Megan Sizemore at North Central High School on Thursday, May 7, 2020.

       




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IndyStar looking for 'Sports Mom of Year' for Mother's Day

Nominate a mother involved in a sports for a Mother's Day feature

       




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Q&A with IHSAA's Bobby Cox: On basketball's incomplete finish, proposals for emerging sports

IndyStar high school sports Insider Kyle Neddenriep caught up with outgoing IHSAA commissioner Bobby Cox.

       




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Charles Johnson, longtime supporter and volunteer for Warren Central, dies at age 79

Charles Johnson and his wife, Kay, rarely missed a boys or girls basketball game or football game at Warren Central. He died of the coronavirus.

       




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IndyStar Sports Awards 2020: Winter sports, premier award nominees

This year's IndyStar Sports Awards show will be streamed online and available on-demand starting June 18.

       




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Build-A-Team: Putting together the best Indianapolis Washington basketball team

IndyStar preps Insider Kyle Neddenriep identified the 64 "best" high school teams of all-time. That means the best team you can put together.

       




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Build-A-Team: Putting together the best Southport basketball team

IndyStar preps Insider Kyle Neddenriep identified the 64 "best" high school teams of all-time. That means the best team you can put together.