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Argentina: Political Change and the G20 Presidency




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The Kremlin Letters: Wartime Exchanges of the Big Three




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Radical Change? New Political Paradigms in Brazil and Mexico




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Chatham House Primer: Making Change




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Undercurrents: Bonus Episode - How Technology is Changing International Affairs




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Iran, Islam and Democracy: The Politics of Managing Change 20 Years On




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The Climate Briefing: Episode 3 - Climate Change and National Security




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Climate Change, Energy Transition, and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)

Invitation Only Research Event

17 January 2020 - 9:30am to 5:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Climate change and energy transition are re-shaping the extractive sectors, and the opportunities and risks they present for governments, companies and civil society. As the central governance standard in the extractives sector, the EITI has a critical role in supporting transparency in producer countries.

This workshop will bring together experts from the energy and extractives sectors, governance and transparency, and climate risk and financial disclosure initiatives to discuss the role of governance and transparency through the transition. It will consider the appropriate role for the EITI and potential entry points for policy and practice, and the potential for coordination with related transparency and disclosure initiatives. 

Please note attendance is by invitation only.




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Will a Devastating Bushfire Season Change Australia’s Climate Stance?

23 January 2020

Madeleine Forster

Richard and Susan Hayden Academy Fellow, International Law Programme

Professor Tim Benton

Research Director, Emerging Risks; Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
With Australians experiencing first-hand the risks of climate change, Madeleine Forster and Tim Benton examine the influencers, at home or abroad, that could push the government towards more action.

2020-01-23-FireNSW.jpg

Residents look on as flames burn through bush on 4 January 2020 in Lake Tabourie, NSW. Photo: Getty Images.

The 2019–20 fire season in Australia has been unprecedented. To date, an estimated 18 million hectares of fire has cut swathes through the bush – an area greater than that of the average European country and over five times the size of blazes in the Amazon.

This reflects previous predictions of Australian science. Since 2008 and as recently as 2018, scientific bodies have warned that climate change will exacerbate existing conditions for fires and other climatic disasters in Australia. What used to be once-in-a-generation fires now re-appear within 10–15 years with increased ferocity, over longer seasons.

In a country known for climate denial and division, debate has erupted around bushfire management and climate change. One of these is whether controlled burns are the answer to Australia’s climate-affected fire conditions.

There is no single risk reduction strategy. Controlled burning remains key, if adapted to the environment and climate

But when three out of four seasons in a year can support destructive bushfires, there are clear limits to what controlled burning and other fire management techniques can achieve. Other ‘adaptation’ measures are also likely to provoke intense debate – including bush clearance. As one Australian expert offered to highlight where Australia has got to, families should probably not go on holiday to bush and beach during the height of summer when temperatures and fire risk peaks. 

So, unless Australia is prepared to debate radical changes to where people live and how land is used, the limits to adaptation imply the need for mitigation. This means supporting ambitious global greenhouse emissions reductions targets. As research from Victoria, one fire-prone state in Australia, highlights, ‘the emissions pathway we follow is the largest determinant of change to many variables [such as temperature] beyond the next few decades.’

Can Australia become a more active global partner on emissions?

Australia accounts for just over one per cent of global emissions, so reducing domestic emissions – even though on a per capita basis they are the highest in the world – will not reduce Australia’s climate risk. Showing international leadership and supporting a powerful coalition of the willing to tackle climate change is the only way ahead. By showing a willingness to adopt climate ambition, Australia can help more constructive worldwide action, and thereby reduce its own risk exposure. 

Leading by example is a politically difficult issue for Australia. Prime Minister Scott Morrison was re-elected in May 2019 on an economic stability platform, and a promise not to imperil employment growth through climate action. Australia has contested UN estimates that it will not meet its existing modest goals for domestic emissions, by seeking to rely on carryover credits from action under the Kyoto Protocol as proof of progress.

It has also distanced itself from concerns over global supply and demand in fossil fuels. Australia remains a global supplier for fossil fuels, including coal – the nation’s coal exports accounted for $67 billion in revenues in 2019 in an expanding but changing Asian market, supplying ‘some of the cheapest electricity in the world’.

Possible influencers of change

With Australians experiencing first-hand the risks of climate change, there is already pressure to do more. Many are sceptical this will translate into domestic targets or export policies that give Australia the moral authority to ask for more action on the global stage.

Here, diverse groups who share a common interest in seeing Australia recover from the bushfires and address future climate risks could be key.

Importantly this includes rural and urban-fringe communities affected by the bushfires. They were part of Morrison’s traditional supporter-base but are angry at the government’s handling of the crisis and increasingly see how tiptoeing around emissions (including exports) has also ‘buried’ open discussion at home on climate-readiness.

Australian states could also find themselves taking a lead role. Virtually all jurisdictions have now committed to their own goals, most based on zero-carbon goals by 2050 (as has New Zealand). These can support modelling for Australia’s energy transition from coal, through gas, to market competitive renewables, while also help to ensure this reflects community expectations on jobs, electricity prices and other costs. 

Other emerging voices include the insurance and banking sectors (the Reserve Bank of Australia warned of the long-term financial stability risks of climate change before the fires) and indigenous Australians (one group of Torres Strait Islanders have filed a complaint to the UN Human Rights Committee which, if heard, will place Australia’s emissions record under the spotlight again). Their challenge now is finding a common language on what a cohesive approach to addressing climate change risk looks like. 

The international picture is mixed. The United States’ poor federal climate policy is a buffer for Australia. French President Emmanuel Macron has tried to raise the cost of inaction for Australia in current EU–Australia trade negotiations, but many large emitters in the Indo-Pacific region remain key Australian trading partners, investors and buyers of Australian coal. 

In the meantime, the United Kingdom is preparing for the meeting of parties to the Paris Agreement in Glasgow in November. A key global event following Brexit, the UK will no doubt be hoping to encourage a leadership circle with national commitments that meet global need to make the Glasgow meeting a success.

The UK public has expressed enormous sympathy for Australia in the bushfires and outrage over ‘climate denialism.’ Australia’s experience will be a cautionary tale of the effects of climate change at the meeting. Could the UK also support Australia to become a less reluctant partner in global climate action?




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COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series: Climate Change and National Security

Research Event

25 March 2020 - 9:00am to 10:30am

Event participants

Lieutenant General Richard Nugee, Departmental Lead for Climate Change and Sustainability in the UK Ministry of Defence
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, Vice Dean (Public Policy) Engineering Sciences at the University College London and Associate Fellow at Chatham House
Dr. Patricia Lewis, Research Director for Conflict, Science and Technology, and Director of the International Security Programme at Chatham House
Professor Yacob Mulugetta, Professor of Energy and Development Policy at the University College London
Chair: Glada Lahn, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House
Extreme weather, rising sea levels and a melting Arctic - the effects of climate change are posing an increasingly large threat to national security worldwide. Although the issue has gained traction within the international community in recent years, including within the UN Security Council, it is urgent that governments act more decisively to mitigate and respond to the threat, not least given that climate change is happening faster and in a more powerful way than originally anticipated.
 
The third event in the Chatham House COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series – 'Climate Change and National Security' - will analyze how climate change acts as a threat multiplier, fuelling instability and endangering economic, social and political systems across the globe. The briefing will also provide recommendations of what governments and other stakeholders should do to develop effective responses.
 

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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Bridging an Impossible Gap? Japan-South Korea Cooperation in a Changing Asia

Research Event

10 February 2020 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Jennifer Lind, Associate Fellow, US and the Americas Programme and Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Tania Branigan, Leader Writer, The Guardian  

China’s growing power and assertiveness in Asia has led the United States and other liberal partners to move toward an Indo-Pacific strategy. While Japan embraces this, South Korea remains noticeably reticent. Moreover, tensions between the two countries have escalated into crisis with the reinvigoration of historical disputes. This roundtable will explore the root causes of current animosity between Seoul and Tokyo, and the potential ways it can be overcome.

This event is co-hosted with Dartmouth College. 

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED.

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761




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Will a Devastating Bushfire Season Change Australia’s Climate Stance?

23 January 2020

Madeleine Forster

Richard and Susan Hayden Academy Fellow, International Law Programme

Professor Tim Benton

Research Director, Emerging Risks; Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
With Australians experiencing first-hand the risks of climate change, Madeleine Forster and Tim Benton examine the influencers, at home or abroad, that could push the government towards more action.

2020-01-23-FireNSW.jpg

Residents look on as flames burn through bush on 4 January 2020 in Lake Tabourie, NSW. Photo: Getty Images.

The 2019–20 fire season in Australia has been unprecedented. To date, an estimated 18 million hectares of fire has cut swathes through the bush – an area greater than that of the average European country and over five times the size of blazes in the Amazon.

This reflects previous predictions of Australian science. Since 2008 and as recently as 2018, scientific bodies have warned that climate change will exacerbate existing conditions for fires and other climatic disasters in Australia. What used to be once-in-a-generation fires now re-appear within 10–15 years with increased ferocity, over longer seasons.

In a country known for climate denial and division, debate has erupted around bushfire management and climate change. One of these is whether controlled burns are the answer to Australia’s climate-affected fire conditions.

There is no single risk reduction strategy. Controlled burning remains key, if adapted to the environment and climate

But when three out of four seasons in a year can support destructive bushfires, there are clear limits to what controlled burning and other fire management techniques can achieve. Other ‘adaptation’ measures are also likely to provoke intense debate – including bush clearance. As one Australian expert offered to highlight where Australia has got to, families should probably not go on holiday to bush and beach during the height of summer when temperatures and fire risk peaks. 

So, unless Australia is prepared to debate radical changes to where people live and how land is used, the limits to adaptation imply the need for mitigation. This means supporting ambitious global greenhouse emissions reductions targets. As research from Victoria, one fire-prone state in Australia, highlights, ‘the emissions pathway we follow is the largest determinant of change to many variables [such as temperature] beyond the next few decades.’

Can Australia become a more active global partner on emissions?

Australia accounts for just over one per cent of global emissions, so reducing domestic emissions – even though on a per capita basis they are the highest in the world – will not reduce Australia’s climate risk. Showing international leadership and supporting a powerful coalition of the willing to tackle climate change is the only way ahead. By showing a willingness to adopt climate ambition, Australia can help more constructive worldwide action, and thereby reduce its own risk exposure. 

Leading by example is a politically difficult issue for Australia. Prime Minister Scott Morrison was re-elected in May 2019 on an economic stability platform, and a promise not to imperil employment growth through climate action. Australia has contested UN estimates that it will not meet its existing modest goals for domestic emissions, by seeking to rely on carryover credits from action under the Kyoto Protocol as proof of progress.

It has also distanced itself from concerns over global supply and demand in fossil fuels. Australia remains a global supplier for fossil fuels, including coal – the nation’s coal exports accounted for $67 billion in revenues in 2019 in an expanding but changing Asian market, supplying ‘some of the cheapest electricity in the world’.

Possible influencers of change

With Australians experiencing first-hand the risks of climate change, there is already pressure to do more. Many are sceptical this will translate into domestic targets or export policies that give Australia the moral authority to ask for more action on the global stage.

Here, diverse groups who share a common interest in seeing Australia recover from the bushfires and address future climate risks could be key.

Importantly this includes rural and urban-fringe communities affected by the bushfires. They were part of Morrison’s traditional supporter-base but are angry at the government’s handling of the crisis and increasingly see how tiptoeing around emissions (including exports) has also ‘buried’ open discussion at home on climate-readiness.

Australian states could also find themselves taking a lead role. Virtually all jurisdictions have now committed to their own goals, most based on zero-carbon goals by 2050 (as has New Zealand). These can support modelling for Australia’s energy transition from coal, through gas, to market competitive renewables, while also help to ensure this reflects community expectations on jobs, electricity prices and other costs. 

Other emerging voices include the insurance and banking sectors (the Reserve Bank of Australia warned of the long-term financial stability risks of climate change before the fires) and indigenous Australians (one group of Torres Strait Islanders have filed a complaint to the UN Human Rights Committee which, if heard, will place Australia’s emissions record under the spotlight again). Their challenge now is finding a common language on what a cohesive approach to addressing climate change risk looks like. 

The international picture is mixed. The United States’ poor federal climate policy is a buffer for Australia. French President Emmanuel Macron has tried to raise the cost of inaction for Australia in current EU–Australia trade negotiations, but many large emitters in the Indo-Pacific region remain key Australian trading partners, investors and buyers of Australian coal. 

In the meantime, the United Kingdom is preparing for the meeting of parties to the Paris Agreement in Glasgow in November. A key global event following Brexit, the UK will no doubt be hoping to encourage a leadership circle with national commitments that meet global need to make the Glasgow meeting a success.

The UK public has expressed enormous sympathy for Australia in the bushfires and outrage over ‘climate denialism.’ Australia’s experience will be a cautionary tale of the effects of climate change at the meeting. Could the UK also support Australia to become a less reluctant partner in global climate action?




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How modelling articulates the science of climate change

To imagine earth without greenhouse gases in its atmosphere is to turn the familiar blue marble into a barren lump of rock and ice on which the average surface temperature hovers around -18ºC. Such a planet would not receive less of the sunlight which is the ultimate source of all Earth's warmth. But when the energy it absorbed from the sunlight was re-emitted as infrared radiation, as the laws of physics require, it would head unimpeded back out into space.




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Parallel threats of COVID-19, climate change, require 'brave, visionary and collaborative leadership': UN chief

And against the backdrop of threatened lives, crippled businesses and damaged economies, the UN chief warned the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin that the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are also under threat.




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These key investments can build resilience to pandemics and climate change

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc, the world's energies are rightly focused on efforts to contain the virus and manage the economic fallout. Yet, in the background, the climate emergency remains as urgent as ever.




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Has Davos Man Changed?

Nobel Laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz asks whether “Davos man” — rich, and powerful, perhaps out of touch, but representative of the global elite — has become more enlightened.




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Please Review - Link Exchange Platform - Linkgy.com




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FEEDBACK on my LINK EXCHANGE website?




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Looking To Exchange Website Traffic For Memes Site




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Report of the Workshop on Capacity-building for research and information exchange on socio-economic impacts of Living Modified Organisms under the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety




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Report of the workshop on capacity-building and exchange of experiences as related to the implantation of paragraph 2 of article 18 of the biosafety protocol now available.




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How technology is changing the sports fans' experience

The sports industry is harnessing digital engagement to enhance fan experiences and cope with threats to its traditional business model




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CBD News: Message from Executive Secretary, Ahmed Djoghlaf, on the occasion of the High-Level Conference on World Food Security and the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy FAO, Rome, 3 June 2008.




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CBD Biodiversity: A Missing Link for Mitigating Climate Change - World Environment Day celebrated in Montreal.




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CBD News: Statement by Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary, at the G8 Dialogue Series convened by the Institute of Advanced Studies of the United Nations University (UNU-IAS): "Climate Change and Biodiversity or the Unprecedented Planetary Environmen




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CBD News: European Community Members and Their Overseas Entities meet to counter Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss.




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CBD News: Déclaration de M. Ahmed Djoghlaf, Secrétaire exécutif, à l'occasion de la Conférence de haut niveau sur « L'Union Européenne et l'Outre-Mer : Stratégies face au changement climatique et 




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CBD News: Nomination of Experts for the Ad hoc Technical Expert group on Biodiversity and Climate Change.




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CBD World Food Security: the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy, Message from Dr. Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity on the occasion of World Food Day, 16 October 2008.




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CBD News: Message from Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary, to the 10th Meeting of the Conference of the Contracting Parties to the Convention on Wetlands (Ramsar, Iran, 1971), Changwon, Republic of Korea, 28 October - 4 November 2008




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CBD News: Statement by the Executive Secretary, Ahmed Djoghlaf, on "Climate Change, REDD and Biodiversity" on the occasion of the International Expert Meeting on Potential Impacts of "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degrada




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CBD News: Message from the Executive Secretary, Dr. Ahmed Djoghlaf, to the International Mountain Biodiversity Conference on "Biodiversity Conservation and Management for Enhanced Ecosystem Services: Responding to the Challenges of Global Change&quo




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CBD News: Statement by the Executive Secretary, Dr. Ahmed Djoghlaf, on the occasion of the First Meeting of the Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change, London, United Kingdom , 17 - 21 November 2008.




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CBD News: On Monday, 1 December 2008, Robert Watson, Co-Chair of the first meeting of the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group (AHTEG) on Biodiversity and Climate Change convened under the Convention on Biological Diversity and former Chair of the Intergo




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CBD News: Disaster Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation, statement by the Executive Secretary, Ahmed Djoghlaf, on the occasion of the 5th Annual United Nations Day for South-South Cooperation and the Launch of the Global South-South Development Expo or




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CBD News: Opening Remarks on behalf of the Executive Secretary at the Regional Capacity Development Workshop for the Pacific on National Biodiversity Strategies, Biodiversity Mainstreaming and the Integration of Climate Change, 2 February 2009, Nadi, Fiji




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CBD News: Statement by Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity, at the Opening Session of the Second Meeting of the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change, Helsinki, 18-22 April, 2009.




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CBD News: Statement by Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity, on the occasion of the Eighth Session of the United Nations Forum on Forests - Panel Discussion on "Forests in a Changing Environment", 21 Apri




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CBD News: Statement delivered on behalf of the Convention on Biological Diversity, at the Thirtieth Meeting of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change under Agenda Item 3: Na




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CBD News: Statement delivered on behalf of the Convention on Biological Diversity, at the Thirtieth Meeting of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change under Agenda Item 10: C




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CBD Communiqué: South-South-Exchange Meeting on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Forest Biodiversity.




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CBD News: Biodiversity and Climate Change: A CBD Contribution to the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.




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CBD News: New CBD publication on forests and climate change: Technical Series No. 43, "Forest Resilience, Biodiversity, and Climate Change", a synthesis report based on over 400 scientific articles about forest stability, health, and biodiversit




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CBD Press Release: Understanding Forest Ecosystems is Key for Successful Climate-Change Mitigation.




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CBD News: Statement to UNFCCC SBSTA 31: Agenda Item 3 Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change.




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CBD Communiqué: The Human Dimension of the Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Europe.




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CBD News: Statement by Mr Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity, on the occasion of the Peoples' World Conference on Climate Change and Mother Earth, 20 April 2010, Cochabamba, Bolivia.




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CBD Press Release: World Governments Build Consensus on a New Biodiversity Vision to Combat Biodiversity Loss, Alleviate Poverty and Fight Climate Change.




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CBD News: Statement by Mr Ahmed Djoghlaf, CBD Executive Secretary, on the occasion of the International Seminar on the Role of Agrobiodiversity in Addressing Hunger and Climate Change: The International Year Of Biodiversity, 13 September 2010, Cordoba, Sp




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CBD News: Statement by Mr Ahmed Djoghlaf, CBD Executive Secretary, on the occasion of the International Seminar on the Role of Agrobiodiversity in Addressing Hunger and Climate Change: The Road To Nagoya, 14 September 2010, Cordoba, Spain.