On May 14, 2019 Senate Bill 7 was signed by Governor John Carney which formally creates the Delaware Population Consortium (DPC). The DPC has prepared, without formal designation, a unified set of statewide population projections annually since 1975. This new legislation formalizes the DPC, identifies its membership and work products, and requires that all counties, […]

Based on the recent data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics immigration is an important contributor towards population growth in Australia.The StatisticsLast year the growth in Australian population was 1.6 percent and by the year end its…

NEW CASTLE (March 9, 2020) – The Delaware Division of Public Health (DPH) advises older Delawareans and people with severe chronic health conditions to follow guidance issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) encouraging them to “avoid crowds as much as possible” as a way to reduce their risk of contracting coronavirus […]

Nova Scotia Province had a record-breaking growth in population and the credit goes to immigrants as well as interprovincial migrants.Impressive Performance by the ProvinceAs per the estimates of Statistics Canada the growth in population was 12,339…

This is the 21st installment of The Rationalist, my column for the Times of India.

When all political parties agree on something, you know you might have a problem. Giriraj Singh, a minister in Narendra Modi’s new cabinet, tweeted this week that our population control law should become a “movement.” This is something that would find bipartisan support – we are taught from school onwards that India’s population is a big problem, and we need to control it.

This is wrong. Contrary to popular belief, our population is not a problem. It is our greatest strength.

The notion that we should worry about a growing population is an intuitive one. The world has limited resources. People keep increasing. Something’s gotta give.

Robert Malthus made just this point in his 1798 book, An Essay on the Principle of Population. He was worried that our population would grow exponentially while resources would grow arithmetically. As more people entered the workforce, wages would fall and goods would become scarce. Calamity was inevitable.

Malthus’s rationale was so influential that this mode of thinking was soon called ‘Malthusian.’ (It is a pejorative today.) A 20th-century follower of his, Harrison Brown, came up with one of my favourite images on this subject, arguing that a growing population would lead to the earth being “covered completely and to a considerable depth with a writhing mass of human beings, much as a dead cow is covered with a pulsating mass of maggots.”

Another Malthusian, Paul Ehrlich, published a book called The Population Bomb in 1968, which began with the stirring lines, “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.” Ehrlich was, as you’d guess, a big supporter of India’s coercive family planning programs. ““I don’t see,” he wrote, “how India could possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.”

None of these fears have come true. A 2007 study by Nicholas Eberstadt called ‘Too Many People?’ found no correlation between population density and poverty. The greater the density of people, the more you’d expect them to fight for resources – and yet, Monaco, which has 40 times the population density of Bangladesh, is doing well for itself. So is Bahrain, which has three times the population density of India.

Not only does population not cause poverty, it makes us more prosperous. The economist Julian Simon pointed out in a 1981 book that through history, whenever there has been a spurt in population, it has coincided with a spurt in productivity. Such as, for example, between Malthus’s time and now. There were around a billion people on earth in 1798, and there are around 7.7 billion today. As you read these words, consider that you are better off than the richest person on the planet then.

Why is this? The answer lies in the title of Simon’s book: The Ultimate Resource. When we speak of resources, we forget that human beings are the finest resource of all. There is no limit to our ingenuity. And we interact with each other in positive-sum ways – every voluntary interactions leaves both people better off, and the amount of value in the world goes up. This is why we want to be part of economic networks that are as large, and as dense, as possible. This is why most people migrate to cities rather than away from them – and why cities are so much richer than towns or villages.

If Malthusians were right, essential commodities like wheat, maize and rice would become relatively scarcer over time, and thus more expensive – but they have actually become much cheaper in real terms. This is thanks to the productivity and creativity of humans, who, in Eberstadt’s words, are “in practice always renewable and in theory entirely inexhaustible.”

The error made by Malthus, Brown and Ehrlich is the same error that our politicians make today, and not just in the context of population: zero-sum thinking. If our population grows and resources stays the same, of course there will be scarcity. But this is never the case. All we need to do to learn this lesson is look at our cities!

This mistaken thinking has had savage humanitarian consequences in India. Think of the unborn millions over the decades because of our brutal family planning policies. How many Tendulkars, Rahmans and Satyajit Rays have we lost? Think of the immoral coercion still carried out on poor people across the country. And finally, think of the condescension of our politicians, asserting that people are India’s problem – but always other people, never themselves.

This arrogance is India’s greatest problem, not our people.

© 2007 IndiaUncut.com. All rights reserved.
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This is the 21st installment of The Rationalist, my column for the Times of India.

When all political parties agree on something, you know you might have a problem. Giriraj Singh, a minister in Narendra Modi’s new cabinet, tweeted this week that our population control law should become a “movement.” This is something that would find bipartisan support – we are taught from school onwards that India’s population is a big problem, and we need to control it.

This is wrong. Contrary to popular belief, our population is not a problem. It is our greatest strength.

The notion that we should worry about a growing population is an intuitive one. The world has limited resources. People keep increasing. Something’s gotta give.

Robert Malthus made just this point in his 1798 book, An Essay on the Principle of Population. He was worried that our population would grow exponentially while resources would grow arithmetically. As more people entered the workforce, wages would fall and goods would become scarce. Calamity was inevitable.

Malthus’s rationale was so influential that this mode of thinking was soon called ‘Malthusian.’ (It is a pejorative today.) A 20th-century follower of his, Harrison Brown, came up with one of my favourite images on this subject, arguing that a growing population would lead to the earth being “covered completely and to a considerable depth with a writhing mass of human beings, much as a dead cow is covered with a pulsating mass of maggots.”

Another Malthusian, Paul Ehrlich, published a book called The Population Bomb in 1968, which began with the stirring lines, “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.” Ehrlich was, as you’d guess, a big supporter of India’s coercive family planning programs. ““I don’t see,” he wrote, “how India could possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.”

None of these fears have come true. A 2007 study by Nicholas Eberstadt called ‘Too Many People?’ found no correlation between population density and poverty. The greater the density of people, the more you’d expect them to fight for resources – and yet, Monaco, which has 40 times the population density of Bangladesh, is doing well for itself. So is Bahrain, which has three times the population density of India.

Not only does population not cause poverty, it makes us more prosperous. The economist Julian Simon pointed out in a 1981 book that through history, whenever there has been a spurt in population, it has coincided with a spurt in productivity. Such as, for example, between Malthus’s time and now. There were around a billion people on earth in 1798, and there are around 7.7 billion today. As you read these words, consider that you are better off than the richest person on the planet then.

Why is this? The answer lies in the title of Simon’s book: The Ultimate Resource. When we speak of resources, we forget that human beings are the finest resource of all. There is no limit to our ingenuity. And we interact with each other in positive-sum ways – every voluntary interactions leaves both people better off, and the amount of value in the world goes up. This is why we want to be part of economic networks that are as large, and as dense, as possible. This is why most people migrate to cities rather than away from them – and why cities are so much richer than towns or villages.

If Malthusians were right, essential commodities like wheat, maize and rice would become relatively scarcer over time, and thus more expensive – but they have actually become much cheaper in real terms. This is thanks to the productivity and creativity of humans, who, in Eberstadt’s words, are “in practice always renewable and in theory entirely inexhaustible.”

The error made by Malthus, Brown and Ehrlich is the same error that our politicians make today, and not just in the context of population: zero-sum thinking. If our population grows and resources stays the same, of course there will be scarcity. But this is never the case. All we need to do to learn this lesson is look at our cities!

This mistaken thinking has had savage humanitarian consequences in India. Think of the unborn millions over the decades because of our brutal family planning policies. How many Tendulkars, Rahmans and Satyajit Rays have we lost? Think of the immoral coercion still carried out on poor people across the country. And finally, think of the condescension of our politicians, asserting that people are India’s problem – but always other people, never themselves.

This arrogance is India’s greatest problem, not our people.

The India Uncut Blog © 2010 Amit Varma. All rights reserved.
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By Tim Brown and Wiwat Peerapatanapokin HONOLULU (September 17, 2019)—In 2018, roughly 6 million people were living with HIV in Asia and the Pacific, and 310,000 were newly infected, according to UNAIDS estimates. Despite these troubling numbers, financial support for the fight against AIDS is stagnant, and international resources for HIV programs in the region are declining. Given the continued HIV infection levels and limited funds for halting the epidemic, it is more important than ever for prevention efforts to achieve maximum impact with the resources available. This means that programs need to target the key populations most at risk of contracting HIV. In Asia, these key populations are female sex workers and their clients, people who inject drugs, and men who have sex with men....

This is a summary only. Click the title for the full article, or visit www.EastWestCenter.org/Research-Wire for more.

By East-West Center HONOLULU (March 27, 2020)—Population aging is affecting countries all across Asia. This ongoing demographic transition will leave many of the region’s economies increasingly dependent on an aging, and eventually a shrinking, workforce. Economists disagree, however, on whether population aging will necessarily lead to a slowdown in economic growth.

This is a summary only. Click the title for the full article, or visit www.EastWestCenter.org/Research-Wire for more.

By Andrew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park HONOLULU (8 May 2020)—Elderly populations in Asia are expanding more quickly than other age groups. Low fertility rates result in fewer children and eventually fewer working-age adults, while elderly populations are living longer.

This is a summary only. Click the title for the full article, or visit www.EastWestCenter.org/Research-Wire for more.

Prague Daily Monitor

According to data released by the Ministry of Interior, the number of British citizens living in the Czech Republic has increased about 35% since the Brexit referendum, and Brits with their permanent residence in the Czech Republic have risen almost 55% since 2016.

read more

The new coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to wreak havoc across the world, as the number of infections and deaths rapidly rise. It has the potential to infect anybody regardless of age or gender. There are grave concerns that the economic fallout from COVID-19 may be comparable to that of the Great Depression. According to Johns Hopkins […]

The post Global Impact of New Corona Virus and Population Issues appeared first on Inter Press Service.

For sustainable development, universal wellbeing should be the goal, rather than endless growth. Minimizing further growth in human populations is only part of the solution, but an essential part. 

These charts illustrate how Sri Lanka’s elderly population is increasing while the number of working-age people to help support them is declining. Forward-thinking policies are needed to address the challenges arising from this imbalance.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need to strengthen programs and policies affecting older persons both in times of crisis and afterward.

Orangutan orphanages nurse animals back to health and release them into the wild, but that doesn’t seem to increase the population of these endangered apes

ABSTRACT

Candida auris has emerged globally as a multidrug-resistant yeast that can spread via nosocomial transmission. An initial phylogenetic study of isolates from Japan, India, Pakistan, South Africa, and Venezuela revealed four populations (clades I, II, III, and IV) corresponding to these geographic regions. Since this description, C. auris has been reported in more than 30 additional countries. To trace this global emergence, we compared the genomes of 304 C. auris isolates from 19 countries on six continents. We found that four predominant clades persist across wide geographic locations. We observed phylogeographic mixing in most clades; clade IV, with isolates mainly from South America, demonstrated the strongest phylogeographic substructure. C. auris isolates from two clades with opposite mating types were detected contemporaneously in a single health care facility in Kenya. We estimated a Bayesian molecular clock phylogeny and dated the origin of each clade within the last 360 years; outbreak-causing clusters from clades I, III, and IV originated 36 to 38 years ago. We observed high rates of antifungal resistance in clade I, including four isolates resistant to all three major classes of antifungals. Mutations that contribute to resistance varied between the clades, with Y132F in ERG11 as the most widespread mutation associated with azole resistance and S639P in FKS1 for echinocandin resistance. Copy number variants in ERG11 predominantly appeared in clade III and were associated with fluconazole resistance. These results provide a global context for the phylogeography, population structure, and mechanisms associated with antifungal resistance in C. auris.

IMPORTANCE In less than a decade, C. auris has emerged in health care settings worldwide; this species is capable of colonizing skin and causing outbreaks of invasive candidiasis. In contrast to other Candida species, C. auris is unique in its ability to spread via nosocomial transmission and its high rates of drug resistance. As part of the public health response, whole-genome sequencing has played a major role in characterizing transmission dynamics and detecting new C. auris introductions. Through a global collaboration, we assessed genome evolution of isolates of C. auris from 19 countries. Here, we described estimated timing of the expansion of each C. auris clade and of fluconazole resistance, characterized discrete phylogeographic population structure of each clade, and compared genome data to sensitivity measurements to describe how antifungal resistance mechanisms vary across the population. These efforts are critical for a sustained, robust public health response that effectively utilizes molecular epidemiology.

ABSTRACT

Theory, simulation, and experimental evolution demonstrate that diversified CRISPR-Cas immunity to lytic viruses can lead to stochastic virus extinction due to a limited number of susceptible hosts available to each potential new protospacer escape mutation. Under such conditions, theory predicts that to evade extinction, viruses evolve toward decreased virulence and promote vertical transmission and persistence in infected hosts. To better understand the evolution of host-virus interactions in microbial populations with active CRISPR-Cas immunity, we studied the interaction between CRISPR-immune Sulfolobus islandicus cells and immune-deficient strains that are infected by the chronic virus SSV9. We demonstrate that Sulfolobus islandicus cells infected with SSV9, and with other related SSVs, kill uninfected, immune strains through an antagonistic mechanism that is a protein and is independent of infectious virus. Cells that are infected with SSV9 are protected from killing and persist in the population. We hypothesize that this infection acts as a form of mutualism between the host and the virus by removing competitors in the population and ensuring continued vertical transmission of the virus within populations with diversified CRISPR-Cas immunity.

IMPORTANCE Multiple studies, especially those focusing on the role of lytic viruses in key model systems, have shown the importance of viruses in shaping microbial populations. However, it has become increasingly clear that viruses with a long host-virus interaction, such as those with a chronic lifestyle, can be important drivers of evolution and have large impacts on host ecology. In this work, we describe one such interaction with the acidic crenarchaeon Sulfolobus islandicus and its chronic virus Sulfolobus spindle-shaped virus 9. Our work expands the view in which this symbiosis between host and virus evolved, describing a killing phenotype which we hypothesize has evolved in part due to the high prevalence and diversity of CRISPR-Cas immunity seen in natural populations. We explore the implications of this phenotype in population dynamics and host ecology, as well as the implications of mutualism between this virus-host pair.

Objective

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are used to quantify the cumulative effects of a number of genetic variants, which may individually have a very small effect on susceptibility to a disease; we used PRSs to better understand the genetic contribution to common epilepsy and its subtypes.

Methods

We first replicated previous single associations using 373 unrelated patients. We then calculated PRSs in the same French Canadian patients with epilepsy divided into 7 epilepsy subtypes and population-based controls. We fitted a logistic mixed model to calculate the variance explained by the PRS using pseudo-R² statistics.

Results

We show that the PRS explains more of the variance in idiopathic generalized epilepsy than in patients with nonacquired focal epilepsy. We also demonstrate that the variance explained is different within each epilepsy subtype.

Conclusions

Globally, we support the notion that PRSs provide a reliable measure to rightfully estimate the contribution of genetic factors to the pathophysiologic mechanism of epilepsies, but further studies are needed on PRSs before they can be used clinically.

Real geography is continuous, but standard models in population genetics are based on discrete, well-mixed populations. As a result, many methods of analyzing genetic data assume that samples are a random draw from a well-mixed population, but are applied to clustered samples from populations that are structured clinally over space. Here, we use simulations of populations living in continuous geography to study the impacts of dispersal and sampling strategy on population genetic summary statistics, demographic inference, and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We find that most common summary statistics have distributions that differ substantially from those seen in well-mixed populations, especially when Wright’s neighborhood size is < 100 and sampling is spatially clustered. "Stepping-stone" models reproduce some of these effects, but discretizing the landscape introduces artifacts that in some cases are exacerbated at higher resolutions. The combination of low dispersal and clustered sampling causes demographic inference from the site frequency spectrum to infer more turbulent demographic histories, but averaged results across multiple simulations revealed surprisingly little systematic bias. We also show that the combination of spatially autocorrelated environments and limited dispersal causes GWAS to identify spurious signals of genetic association with purely environmentally determined phenotypes, and that this bias is only partially corrected by regressing out principal components of ancestry. Last, we discuss the relevance of our simulation results for inference from genetic variation in real organisms.

The question of the relative evolutionary roles of adaptive and nonadaptive processes has been a central debate in population genetics for nearly a century. While advances have been made in the theoretical development of the underlying models, and statistical methods for estimating their parameters from large-scale genomic data, a framework for an appropriate null model remains elusive. A model incorporating evolutionary processes known to be in constant operation, genetic drift (as modulated by the demographic history of the population) and purifying selection, is lacking. Without such a null model, the role of adaptive processes in shaping within- and between-population variation may not be accurately assessed. Here, we investigate how population size changes and the strength of purifying selection affect patterns of variation at "neutral" sites near functional genomic components. We propose a novel statistical framework for jointly inferring the contribution of the relevant selective and demographic parameters. By means of extensive performance analyses, we quantify the utility of the approach, identify the most important statistics for parameter estimation, and compare the results with existing methods. Finally, we reanalyze genome-wide population-level data from a Zambian population of Drosophila melanogaster, and find that it has experienced a much slower rate of population growth than was inferred when the effects of purifying selection were neglected. Our approach represents an appropriate null model, against which the effects of positive selection can be assessed.

Positive selection causes beneficial alleles to rise to high frequency, resulting in a selective sweep of the diversity surrounding the selected sites. Accordingly, the signature of a selective sweep in an ancestral population may still remain in its descendants. Identifying signatures of selection in the ancestor that are shared among its descendants is important to contextualize the timing of a sweep, but few methods exist for this purpose. We introduce the statistic SS-H12, which can identify genomic regions under shared positive selection across populations and is based on the theory of the expected haplotype homozygosity statistic H12, which detects recent hard and soft sweeps from the presence of high-frequency haplotypes. SS-H12 is distinct from comparable statistics because it requires a minimum of only two populations, and properly identifies and differentiates between independent convergent sweeps and true ancestral sweeps, with high power and robustness to a variety of demographic models. Furthermore, we can apply SS-H12 in conjunction with the ratio of statistics we term and to further classify identified shared sweeps as hard or soft. Finally, we identified both previously reported and novel shared sweep candidates from human whole-genome sequences. Previously reported candidates include the well-characterized ancestral sweeps at LCT and SLC24A5 in Indo-Europeans, as well as GPHN worldwide. Novel candidates include an ancestral sweep at RGS18 in sub-Saharan Africans involved in regulating the platelet response and implicated in sudden cardiac death, and a convergent sweep at C2CD5 between European and East Asian populations that may explain their different insulin responses.

Key Points

Method for highly sensitive detection of phosphorylation in B cell subpopulations.

B cell subpopulations show different phosphorylation levels upon BCR stimulation.

HIV-1 persists in cellular reservoirs that can reignite viremia if antiretroviral therapy (ART) is interrupted. Therefore, insight into the nature of those reservoirs may be revealed from the composition of recrudescing viremia following treatment cessation. A minor population of macrophage-tropic (M-tropic) viruses was identified in a library of recombinant viruses...

Lakshman Abhilash, Arshad Kalliyil, and Vasu Sheeba

Even though the rhythm in adult emergence and rhythm in locomotor activity are two different rhythmic phenomena that occur at distinct life-stages of the fly life cycle, previous studies have hinted at similarities in certain aspects of the organisation of the circadian clock driving these two rhythms. For instance, the period gene plays an important regulatory role in both rhythms. In an earlier study, we have shown that selection on timing of adult emergence behaviour in populations of Drosophila melanogaster leads to the co-evolution of temperature sensitivity of circadian clocks driving eclosion. In this study, we were interested in asking if temperature sensitivity of the locomotor activity rhythm has evolved in our populations with divergent timing of adult emergence rhythm, with the goal of understanding the extent of similarity (or lack of it) in circadian organisation between the two rhythms. We found that in response to simulated jetlag with temperature cycles, late chronotypes (populations selected for predominant emergence during dusk) indeed re-entrain faster than early chronotypes (populations selected for predominant emergence during dawn) to 6-h phase-delays, thereby indicating enhanced sensitivity of the activity/rest clock to temperature cues in these stocks (entrainment is the synchronisation of internal rhythms to cyclic environmental time-cues). Additionally, we found that late chronotypes show higher plasticity of phases across regimes, day-to-day stability in phases and amplitude of entrainment, all indicative of enhanced temperature sensitive activity/rest rhythms. Our results highlight remarkably similar organisation principles between emergence and activity/rest rhythms.

A multidisciplinary endocrinologist-led shared medical appointment (SMA) model showed statistically significant reductions in A1C from baseline over 3 years that were not significantly different from appointments with endocrinologists or primary care providers alone within a resource-poor population. Similarly, the SMA model achieved clinical outcomes on par with endocrinologist-only visits with the added benefit of improving endocrine provider productivity and specialty access for patients. Greater patient engagement with the SMA model was associated with significantly lower A1C.

Chronic cough is a common complaint in the general population but there are no precise data on the incidence of, and prospectively examined risk factors for chronic cough in a population-based setting. Therefore, we investigated the period prevalence, incidence and risk factors for chronic cough in adult subjects.

In a prospective population-based cohort study among subjects aged ≥45 years, data on chronic cough were collected on two separate occasions using a standardised questionnaire. Chronic cough was defined as daily coughing for at least 3 months duration during the preceding 2 years. Potential risk factors were gathered by interview, physical examination and several investigations.

Of the 9824 participants in this study, 1073 (10.9%) subjects had chronic cough at baseline. The prevalence of chronic cough increased with age and peaked in the eighth decade. In subjects aged <70 years, chronic cough was more common in women. During an average follow-up of 6 years, 439 incident cases of chronic cough occurred with an overall incidence rate of 11.6 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 10.6–12.8). In current smokers, the incidence of chronic cough was higher in men. In the multivariable analysis, current smoking, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), asthma and COPD were identified as risk factors for chronic cough.

Chronic cough is common among adults and highly prevalent in the older population. Current smoking, GORD, asthma and COPD are independent risk factors for chronic cough. Individuals at risk of developing chronic cough may benefit from smoking cessation and control of the underlying disease.

BACKGROUND

Sex differences have been described in diabetes cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs).

PURPOSE

We systematically reviewed for baseline sex differences in cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and CV protection therapy in diabetes CVOTs.

DATA SOURCES

Randomized placebo-controlled trials examining the effect of diabetes medications on major adverse cardiovascular events in people ≥18 years of age with type 2 diabetes.

STUDY SELECTION

Included trials reported baseline sex-specific CV risks and use of CV protection therapy.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two reviewers independently abstracted study data.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We included five CVOTs with 46,606 participants. We summarized sex-specific data using mean differences (MDs) and relative risks (RRs) and pooled estimates using random effects meta-analysis. There were fewer women than men in included trials (28.5–35.8% women). Women more often had stroke (RR 1.28; 95% CI 1.09, 1.50), heart failure (RR 1.30; 95% CI 1.21,1.40), and chronic kidney disease (RR 1.33; 95% CI 1.17; 1.51). They less often used statins (RR 0.90; 95% CI 0.86, 0.93), aspirin (RR 0.82; 95% CI 0.71, 0.95), and β-blockers (RR 0.93; 95% CI 0.88, 0.97) and had a higher systolic blood pressure (MD 1.66 mmHg; 95% CI 0.90, 2.41), LDL cholesterol (MD 0.34 mmol/L; 95% CI 0.29, 0.39), and hemoglobin A_1c (MD 0.11%; 95% CI 0.09, 0.14 [1.2 mmol/mol; 1.0, 1.5]) than men.

LIMITATIONS

We could not carry out subgroup analyses due to the small number of studies. Our study is not generalizable to low CV risk groups nor to patients in routine care.

CONCLUSIONS

There were baseline sex disparities in diabetes CVOTs. We suggest efforts to recruit women into trials and promote CV management across the sexes.

OBJECTIVE

There is a controversy over the association between obesity and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in people with or without type 2 diabetes; therefore, we examined the effect of BMI on the risk of ESRD according to glycemic status in the Korean population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The study monitored 9,969,848 participants who underwent a National Health Insurance Service health checkup in 2009 from baseline to the date of diagnosis of ESRD during a follow-up period of ~8.2 years. Obesity was categorized by World Health Organization recommendations for Asian populations, and glycemic status was categorized into the following five groups: normal, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), newly diagnosed diabetes, diabetes <5 years, and diabetes ≥5 years.

RESULTS

Underweight was associated with a higher risk of ESRD in all participants after adjustment for all covariates. In the groups with IFG, newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes, diabetes duration <5 years, and diabetes ≥5 years, the hazard ratio (HR) of the underweight group increased with worsening glycemic status (HR 1.431 for IFG, 2.114 for newly diagnosed diabetes, 4.351 for diabetes <5 years, and 6.397 for diabetes ≥5 years), using normal weight with normal fasting glucose as a reference. The adjusted HRs for ESRD were also the highest in the sustained underweight group regardless of the presence of type 2 diabetes (HR 1.606 for nondiabetes and 2.14 for diabetes).

CONCLUSIONS

Underweight showed more increased HR of ESRD according to glycemic status and diabetes duration in the Korean population. These associations also persisted in the group with sustained BMI during the study period.

Background:

It is unclear how patient-reported access to primary care differs by physician payment model and participation in team-based care. We examined the association between timely and after-hours access to primary care and physician payment model and participation in team-based care, and sought to assess how access varied by patient characteristics.

Methods:

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of adult (age ≥ 16 yr) Ontarians who responded to the Ontario Health Care Experience Survey between January 2013 and September 2015, reported having a primary care provider and agreed to have their responses linked to health administrative data. Access measures included the proportion of respondents who reported same-day or next-day access when sick, satisfaction with time to appointment when sick, telephone access and knowledge of an after-hours clinic. We tested the association between practice model and measures of access using logistic regression after stratifying for rurality.

Results:

A total of 33 665 respondents met our inclusion criteria. In big cities, respondents in team and nonteam capitation models were less likely to report same-day or next-day access when sick than respondents in enhanced fee-for-service models (team capitation 43%, adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79–0.98; nonteam capitation 39%, adjusted OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.70–0.87; enhanced fee-for-service 46% [reference]). Respondents in team and nonteam capitation models were more likely than those in enhanced fee-for-service models to report that their provider had an after-hours clinic (team capitation 59%, adjusted OR 2.59, 95% CI 2.39–2.81; nonteam capitation 51%, adjusted OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.76–2.04; enhanced fee-for service 34% [reference]). Patterns were similar for respondents in small towns. There was minimal to no difference by model for satisfaction with time to appointment or telephone access.

Interpretation:

In our setting, there was an association between some types of access to primary care and physician payment model and team-based care, but the direction was not consistent. Different measures of timely access are needed to understand health care system performance.

Background:

First Nations people in Ontario have an increased prevalence of diabetes compared to other people in the province. This study examined use of health care services by First Nations people with diabetes and other people with diabetes in Ontario.

Methods:

Using linked health administrative databases, we identified all people in Ontario with diabetes as of Apr. 1, 2014. We identified First Nations people using the Indian Register. We looked at outcomes from Apr. 1, 2014, to Mar. 31, 2015. We determined the proportion of people with a regular family physician and their continuity of care with that physician. We also examined visits with specialists for diabetes care, hospital admissions for ambulatory-care–sensitive conditions, and emergency department visits for hypo- or hyperglycemia.

Results:

There were 1 380 529 people diagnosed with diabetes in Ontario as of Apr. 1, 2014, of whom 22 952 (1.7%) were First Nations people. First Nations people were less likely to have a regular family physician (85.3% v. 97.7%) and had lower continuity of care with that physician (mean score for continuity of care 74.6 v. 77.7) than other people in Ontario. They were also less likely to see specialists. First Nations people were more likely to be admitted to hospital for ambulatory-care–sensitive conditions (2.4% v. 1.2%) and to have an emergency department visit for hypo- or hyperglycemia (1.5% v. 0.8%). Disparities were particularly marked for those living in First Nations communities.

Interpretation:

First Nations people with diabetes in Ontario had poorer access to and use of primary care than other people with diabetes in the province. These findings may help explain continued disparities in the rates of complications related to diabetes.

Background:

Peripregnancy emergency department use may be common, but data specific to health care systems like that in Canada are lacking. As prior research was limited to livebirths, omitting pregnancies ending in miscarriage or induced abortion, the current study quantified and characterized emergency department use among women in Ontario with a recognized pregnancy.

Methods:

This retrospective population-based cohort study included all recognized pregnancies among Ontario residents aged 10–55 years with an estimated date of conception between Apr. 1, 2002, and Mar. 31, 2017. We defined peripregnancy emergency department use as any emergency department visit during pregnancy or within 42 days after pregnancy. We used modified Poisson regression with a robust error variance to generate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the outcome of any peripregnancy emergency department use in association with maternal age, parity, residential income quintile, location of residence, immigrant status, antenatal care provider and number of comorbidities within 120 days before the clinical start of the pregnancy (expressed as total number of Aggregated Diagnosis Groups [ADGs] obtained with the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Group System). All RRs, except for number of comorbidities, were further adjusted for number of ADGs.

Results:

Peripregnancy emergency department use occurred in 1 075 991 (39.4%) of 2 728 236 recognized pregnancies, including 35.8% of livebirths, 47.3% of stillbirths, 73.7% of miscarriages and 84.8% of threatened abortions. A peripregnancy emergency department visit was more likely among women who were less than 25 years of age (adjusted RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.16–1.17), were nulliparous (adjusted RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.13–1.13), resided in the lowest income quintile area (adjusted RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.15–1.16) or in a rural area (adjusted RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.50–1.51), were Canadian-born (adjusted RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.22–1.23), were not seen by an obstetrician (adjusted RR 1.66, 95% CI 1.54–1.80) or had a greater number of ADGs. Emergency department use peaked in the first trimester and in the first week postpartum. Compared to women residing in urban areas, those residing in rural areas had an odds ratio (OR) of 3.44 (95% CI 3.39–3.49) for 3 or more emergency department visits. Women with 3–4 (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.97–2.01), 5–6 (OR 3.55, 95% CI 3.49–3.61), or 7 or more (OR 7.59, 95% CI 7.39–7.78) prepregnancy comorbidities were more likely to have 3 or more peripregnancy emergency department visits than were those with 2 or fewer comorbidities.

Interpretation:

Peripregnancy emergency department use occurred in nearly 40% of pregnancies, notably in the first trimester and early in the postpartum period. Efforts are needed to streamline rapid access to ambulatory obstetric care during these peak periods, when women are susceptible to miscarriage or a complication after a livebirth.

Background:

In Canada, First Nations populations experience a higher incidence of diabetes and diabetes-related complications than other people. Given the paucity of information on use of preventive eye examinations and the need for interventional care for severe retinopathy among First Nations people, we carried out a population-based study to compare rates of eye examinations and interventional therapies to treat vision-threatening stages of diabetic retinopathy among First Nations people and other people with diabetes in Ontario.

Methods:

In collaboration with the Chiefs of Ontario, we carried out a population-based study to identify cohorts of First Nations people and other people with diabetes in Ontario from 1995/96 to 2014/15. We used linked health administrative databases to evaluate rates of eye examination (2005/06–2014/15) and severe diabetic retinopathy treatment and compared them between the 2 populations, and between First Nations people living in and outside of First Nations communities.

Results:

We identified 23 013 First Nations people and 1 364 222 other people diagnosed with diabetes from 1995/96 to 2014/15, of whom 49.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.9%–50.7%) and 53.8% (95% CI 53.7%–54.0%), respectively, received an eye examination in 2014/15. Eye examination rates were similar for First Nations people regardless of whether they lived in or outside a First Nations community. First Nations people developed severe diabetic retinopathy at a faster rate than other people (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% CI 1.02–1.38). The gap between First Nations people and other people in the proportion requiring therapy for severe diabetic retinopathy was especially prominent among younger people. There were no significant differences in rates of diabetic retinopathy treatment in First Nations people stratified by place of residence.

Interpretation:

Eye examination rates remain suboptimal among people with diabetes in Ontario and were lower among First Nations people. This is particularly concerning in light of our other findings showing an increased risk of requiring treatment for advanced diabetic retinopathy and the accelerated rate of diabetic retinopathy progression among First Nations people with diabetes.

Whether low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations cause osteoporotic fractures is unclear. We tested the hypothesis that low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations are associated with increased risk of osteoporotic fractures using a Mendelian randomization analysis.We genotyped 116 335 randomly chosen white Danish persons aged 20–100 years in 2 population-based cohort studies for plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D decreasing genotypes in CYP2R1 (rs117913124 and rs12794714), DHCR7 (rs7944926 and rs11234027), GEMIN2 (rs2277458), and HAL (rs3819817); 35 833 had information on plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D. We assessed risk of total, osteoporotic, and anatomically localized fractures from 1981 through 2017. Information on fractures and vital status was obtained from nationwide registries.During up to 36 years of follow-up, we observed 17 820 total fractures, 10 861 osteoporotic fractures, and 3472 fractures of hip or femur. Compared with individuals with 25-hydroxyvitamin D ≥ 50nmol/L, multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) for total fractures were 1.03 (0.97–1.09) for individuals with 25–49.9 nmol/L, 1.19 (1.10–1.28) for individuals with 12.5–24.9 nmol/L, and 1.39 (1.21–1.60) for individuals with 25-hydroxyvitamin D < 12.5 nmol/L. Corresponding hazard ratios were 1.07 (1.00–1.15), 1.25 (1.13–1.37), and 1.49 (1.25–1.77) for osteoporotic fractures and 1.09 (0.98–1.22), 1.37 (1.18–1.57), and 1.41 (1.09–1.81) for fractures of hip or femur, respectively. Hazard ratios per 1 increase in vitamin D allele score, corresponding to 3.0% (approximately 1.6 nmol/L) lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, were 0.99 (0.98–1.00) for total fractures, 0.99 (0.97–1.00) for osteoporotic fractures, and 0.98 (0.95–1.00) for fractures of hip or femur.Low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations were associated with osteoporotic fractures; however, Mendelian randomization analysis provided no evidence supporting a causal role for vitamin D in the risk for osteoporotic fractures.

With increased interest in lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) concentration as a target for risk reduction and growing clinical evidence of its impact on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, rigorous analytical performance specifications (APS) and accuracy targets for Lp(a) are required. We investigated the biological variation (BV) of Lp(a), and 2 other major biomarkers of CVD, apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) and apolipoprotein B-100 (apoB), in the European Biological Variation Study population.Serum samples were drawn from 91 healthy individuals for 10 consecutive weeks at 6 European laboratories and analyzed in duplicate on a Roche Cobas 8000 c702. Outlier, homogeneity, and trend analysis were performed, followed by CV-ANOVA to determine BV estimates and their 95% CIs. These estimates were used to calculate APS and reference change values. For Lp(a), BV estimates were determined on normalized concentration quintiles.Within-subject BV estimates were significantly different between sexes for Lp(a) and between women aged <50 and >50 years for apoA-I and apoB. Lp(a) APS was constant across concentration quintiles and, overall, lower than APS based on currently published data, whereas results were similar for apoA-I and apoB.Using a fully Biological Variation Data Critical Appraisal Checklist (BIVAC)–compliant protocol, our study data confirm BV estimates of Lp(a) listed in the European Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine database and reinforce concerns expressed in recent articles regarding the suitability of older APS recommendations for Lp(a) measurements. Given the heterogeneity of Lp(a), more BIVAC-compliant studies on large numbers of individuals of different ethnic groups would be desirable.

Treating malaria in HIV-coinfected individuals should consider potential drug-drug interactions. Artemether-lumefantrine is the most widely recommended treatment for uncomplicated malaria globally. Lumefantrine is metabolized by CYP3A4, an enzyme that commonly used antiretrovirals often induce or inhibit. A population pharmacokinetic meta-analysis was conducted using individual participant data from 10 studies with 6,100 lumefantrine concentrations from 793 nonpregnant adult participants (41% HIV-malaria-coinfected, 36% malaria-infected, 20% HIV-infected, and 3% healthy volunteers). Lumefantrine exposure increased 3.4-fold with coadministration of lopinavir-ritonavir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART), while it decreased by 47% with efavirenz-based ART and by 59% in the patients with rifampin-based antituberculosis treatment. Nevirapine- or dolutegravir-based ART and malaria or HIV infection were not associated with significant effects. Monte Carlo simulations showed that those on concomitant efavirenz or rifampin have 49% and 80% probability of day 7 concentrations <200 ng/ml, respectively, a threshold associated with an increased risk of treatment failure. The risk of achieving subtherapeutic concentrations increases with larger body weight. An extended 5-day and 6-day artemether-lumefantrine regimen is predicted to overcome these drug-drug interactions with efavirenz and rifampin, respectively.

The RESTORE-IMI 1 phase 3 trial demonstrated the efficacy and safety of imipenem-cilastatin (IMI) combined with relebactam (REL) for treating imipenem-nonsusceptible infections. The objective of this analysis was to compare the outcomes among patients meeting eligibility requirements based on central laboratory susceptibility versus local laboratory susceptibility. Patients with serious infections caused by imipenem-nonsusceptible, colistin-susceptible, and imipenem-REL-susceptible pathogens were randomized 2:1 to IMI-REL plus placebo or colistin plus IMI for 5 to 21 days. The primary endpoint was a favorable overall response. Key endpoints included the clinical response and all-cause mortality. We compared outcomes between the primary microbiological modified intent-to-treat (mMITT) population, where eligibility was based on central laboratory susceptibility testing, and the supplemental mMITT (SmMITT) population, where eligibility was based on local, site-level testing. The SmMITT (n = 41) and MITT (n = 31) populations had similar baseline characteristics, including sex, age, illness severity, and renal function. In both analysis populations, favorable overall response rates in the IMI-REL treatment group were >70%. Favorable clinical response rates at day 28 were 71.4% for IMI-REL and 40.0% for colistin plus IMI in the mMITT population, whereas they were 75.0% for IMI-REL and 53.8% for colistin plus IMI in the SmMITT population. Day 28 all-cause mortality rates were 9.5% for IMI-REL and 30.0% for colistin plus IMI in the mMITT population, whereas they were 10.7% for IMI-REL and 23.1% for colistin plus IMI in the SmMITT population. The outcomes in the SmMITT population were generally consistent with those in the mMITT population, suggesting that outcomes may be applicable to the real-world use of IMI-REL for treating infections caused by imipenem-nonsusceptible Gram-negative pathogens. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT02452047.)

The aim of this work was to evaluate the pharmacokinetics of amikacin in Mexican patients with different renal functions receiving once-daily dosing regimens and the influence of clinical and demographical covariates that may influence the optimization of this antibiotic. A prospective study was performed in a total of 63 patients with at least one determination of amikacin plasma concentration. Population pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters were estimated by nonlinear mixed-effects modeling; validations were performed for dosing recommendation purposes based on PK/pharmacodynamic simulations. The concentration-versus-time data were best described by a one-compartment open model with proportional interindividual variability associated with amikacin clearance (CL) and volume of distribution (V); residual error followed a homoscedastic trend. Creatinine clearance (CL_CR) and ideal body weight (IBW) demonstrated significant influence on amikacin CL and V, respectively. The final model [CL (liters/h) = 7.1 x (CL_CR/130)^0.84 and V (liters) = 20.3 x (IBW/68)^2.9] showed a mean prediction error of 0.11 mg/liter (95% confidence interval, –3.34, 3.55) in the validation performed in a different group of patients with similar characteristics. There is a wide variability in amikacin PK parameters in Mexican patients. This leads to inadequate dosing regimens, especially in patients with augmented renal clearance (CL_CR of >130 ml/min). Optimization based on the final population PK model in Mexican patients may be useful, since reliability and clinical applicability have been demonstrated in this study.

To obtain the optimal dosage regimen in patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), we developed a population pharmacokinetics model for cefpirome and performed pharmacodynamic analyses. This prospective study included 15 patients treated with cefpirome during ECMO. Blood samples were collected during ECMO (ECMO-ON) and after ECMO (ECMO-OFF) at predose and 0.5 to 1, 2 to 3, 4 to 6, 8 to 10, and 12 h after cefpirome administration. The population pharmacokinetic model was developed using nonlinear mixed effects modeling and stepwise covariate modeling. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the probability of target attainment (PTA) and cumulative fraction of response (CFR) according to the MIC distribution. Cefpirome pharmacokinetics were best described by a two-compartment model. Covariate analysis indicated that serum creatinine concentration (SCr) was negatively correlated with clearance, and the presence of ECMO increased clearance and the central volume of distribution. The simulations showed that patients with low SCr during ECMO-ON had lower PTA than patients with high SCr during ECMO-OFF; so, a higher dosage of cefpirome was required. Cefpirome of 2 g every 8 h for intravenous bolus injection or 2 g every 12 h for extended infusion over 4 h was recommended with normal kidney function receiving ECMO. We established a population pharmacokinetic model for cefpirome in patients with ECMO, and appropriate cefpirome dosage regimens were recommended. The impact of ECMO could be due to the change in patient status on consideration of the small population and uncertainty in covariate relationships. Dose optimization of cefpirome may improve treatment success and survival in patients receiving ECMO. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT02581280.)

Although they are usually not considered to be diabetes complications, musculoskeletal disorders (MSKDs) are common in individuals with type 1 or type 2 diabetes and can strongly interfere with daily diabetes care, especially in people using diabetes technologies. The authors of this retrospective study in a population of 140 patients with type 1 diabetes report the distribution of subtypes of MSKDs and speculate about the mechanisms involved. The authors emphasize the need for multidisciplinary care involving not only the diabetes care team but also orthopedic surgeons. This report should lead to large, prospective studies to increase knowledge about these under-studied complications.

Background:

Pancreatic cancer is the third leading cause of cancer death in the United States, and 80% of patients present with advanced, incurable disease. Risk markers for pancreatic cancer have been characterized, but combined models are not used clinically to identify individuals at high risk for the disease.

Methods:

Within a nested case–control study of 500 pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed after blood collection and 1,091 matched controls enrolled in four U.S. prospective cohorts, we characterized absolute risk models that included clinical factors (e.g., body mass index, history of diabetes), germline genetic polymorphisms, and circulating biomarkers.

Results:

Model discrimination showed an area under ROC curve of 0.62 via cross-validation. Our final integrated model identified 3.7% of men and 2.6% of women who had at least 3 times greater than average risk in the ensuing 10 years. Individuals within the top risk percentile had a 4% risk of developing pancreatic cancer by age 80 years and 2% 10-year risk at age 70 years.

Conclusions:

Risk models that include established clinical, genetic, and circulating factors improved disease discrimination over models using clinical factors alone.

Impact:

Absolute risk models for pancreatic cancer may help identify individuals in the general population appropriate for disease interception.

Background:

Relatives of patients with bladder cancer have been shown to be at increased risk for kidney, lung, thyroid, and cervical cancer after correcting for smoking-related behaviors that may concentrate in some families. We demonstrate a novel approach to simultaneously assess risks for multiple cancers to identify distinct multicancer configurations (multiple different cancer types that cluster in relatives) surrounding patients with familial bladder cancer.

Methods:

This study takes advantage of a unique population-level data resource, the Utah Population Database (UPDB), containing vast genealogy and statewide cancer data. Familial risk is measured using standardized incidence risk (SIR) ratios that account for sex, age, birth cohort, and person-years of the pedigree members.

Results:

We identify 1,023 families with a significantly higher bladder cancer rate than population controls (familial bladder cancer). Familial SIRs are then calculated across 25 cancer types, and a weighted Gower distance with K-medoids clustering is used to identify familial multicancer configurations (FMC). We found five FMCs, each exhibiting a different pattern of cancer aggregation. Of the 25 cancer types studied, kidney and prostate cancers were most commonly enriched in the familial bladder cancer clusters. Laryngeal, lung, stomach, acute lymphocytic leukemia, Hodgkin disease, soft-tissue carcinoma, esophageal, breast, lung, uterine, thyroid, and melanoma cancers were the other cancer types with increased incidence in familial bladder cancer families.

Conclusions:

This study identified five familial bladder cancer FMCs showing unique risk patterns for cancers of other organs, suggesting phenotypic heterogeneity familial bladder cancer.

Impact:

FMC configurations could permit better definitions of cancer phenotypes (subtypes or multicancer) for gene discovery and environmental risk factor studies.

Background:

The Center to Reduce Cancer Health Disparities (CRCHD), NCI, implemented Screen to Save, NCI's Colorectal Cancer Outreach and Screening Initiative to promote awareness and knowledge of colorectal cancer in racial/ethnic and rural populations.

Methods:

The initiative was implemented through CRCHD's National Outreach Network (NON). NON is a national network of Community Health Educators (CHE), aligned with NCI-designated Cancer Centers across the nation. In phases I and II, the CHEs focused on the dissemination of cancer-related information and implementation of evidence-based educational outreach.

Results:

In total, 3,183 pre/post surveys were obtained from male and female participants, ages 50 to 74 years, during the 347 educational events held in phase I. Results demonstrated all racial/ethnic groups had an increase in colorectal cancer–related knowledge, and each group strongly agreed that the educational event increased the likelihood that they would engage in colorectal cancer–related healthful behaviors (e.g., obtain colorectal cancer screening and increase physical activity). For phase II, Connections to Care, event participants were linked to screening. Eighty-two percent of the participants who obtained colorectal cancer screening during the 3-month follow-up period obtained their screening results.

Conclusions:

These results suggest that culturally tailored, standardized educational messaging and data collection tools are key change agents that can serve to inform the effectiveness of educational outreach to advance awareness and knowledge of colorectal cancer.

Impact:

Future initiatives should focus on large-scale national efforts to elucidate effective models of connections to care, related to colorectal cancer screening, follow-up, and treatments that are modifiable to meet community needs.

Colorectal cancer is a growing burden in adults less than 50 years old. In 2018, the American Cancer Society published a guideline update recommending a reduction in the colorectal cancer screening start age for average-risk individuals from 50 to 45. Implementing these recommendations would have important implications for public health. However, the approximate number of people impacted by this change, the average-risk population ages 45–49, is not well-described in the literature. Here, we provide methodology to conservatively estimate the average-risk and screening-eligible population in the United States, including those who would be impacted by a lowered colorectal cancer screening start age. Using multiple data sources, we estimated the current average-risk population by subtracting individuals with symptomatic colorectal cancer, with a family history of colorectal cancer, and with inflammatory bowel disease and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer from the total population. Within this population, we estimated the number of screening-eligible individuals by subtracting those with previous colorectal cancer screening (45- to 49-year-old) or up to date with colorectal cancer screening (50- to 74-year-old). The total average-risk population is estimated between 102.1 and 106.5 million people, of whom 43.4–45.2 million people are eligible for colorectal cancer screening. Lowering the screening age would add roughly 19 million people to the average-risk population and increase the current number of screening-eligible individuals on immediate implementation by over 60% (from 27 to 44 million). Estimating the population size impacted by lowering the recommended colorectal cancer screening start age enables more accurate decision-making for policymakers and epidemiologists focused on cancer prevention.

The grime star is convinced the highly-contagious disease was deliberately introduced in China as a “control method” and a way to kill huge numbers within society.

The following is a brief roundup of the latest scientific studies on the novel coronavirus and efforts to find treatments and vaccines for COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus.

The spread of coronavirus through the UK population will be tracked with the help of a new study that the government hopes will help pin down immunity levels and infection rates.

Earth's insect population has shrunk by 27 per cent in the past 30 years, researchers have found.