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• Facebook has been in negotiations for months to lease over 700,000 square feet at the Farley Building on Manhattan's West Side. 
• Office leasing activity in the city has plummeted, giving the blockbuster deal even more importance as a sign of life in a suddenly lethargic market.
• The coronavirus has spurred a deep downturn in the economy that is already being felt in the city's commercial real-estate market, prompting a big slowdown in leasing activity.  
• The rapid expansion of tech in recent years has propelled the city's office market. Real estate execs say that Facebook's big deal is a key barometer. 
• The crisis also raises questions whether tenants will ever occupy office space the same way as companies and their workforces around the world grow familiar with remote work. 
• Click here for more BI Prime stories.

Leasing activity in New York City's multi-billion-dollar commercial office market has dropped precipitously as the coronavirus has battered the market and raised questions of when — and even if — tenants can return to the workplace in a post-Covid world.

Amid the growing concerns the crisis will smother what had been robust demand for office space, eyes in the city's real estate industry have turned to a pending blockbuster deal on the West Side that could offer a signal of confidence to the market.

Facebook is in talks to take over 700,000 square feet of space in the Farley Building, a block-long property across Eighth Avenue from Penn Station.

"If that deal happens, then this market will be just fine," said Peter Riguardi, the New York area chairman and president of JLL. "If the deal happens but it's renegotiated, it will be fine, but it will be a trend that every tenant can follow. And if it doesn't happen, I would be very concerned about the market."

Read More: Inside the drama over control of the iconic Chrysler Building: A real-estate tycoon and a prestigious college are renegotiating a critical $150 million deal.

Facebook's NYC real-estate footprint

Last year, Facebook signed on for 1.5 million square feet in the Hudson Yards mega-development just west of the Farley Building, taking space in three new office towers at the project.

For months the $600 billion Silicon Valley-based social media giant has been in negotiations for even more space at the nearby Farley Building, whose interior landlord Vornado Realty Trust is redeveloping to include newly built office and retail space.

Vornado had originally expected to complete the deal with Facebook in early March, according to a source familiar with the negotiations. The talks have continued on as the virus pandemic has brought commerce and social life to a virtual halt. The source expected the lease, which will commit Facebook to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in rent for the space over the life of the lease, to soon be completed.

In a conference call with investors and analysts on Tuesday to discuss Vornado's first-quarter earnings, the company's CEO Steve Roth also hinted that the Facebook deal was still on track.

"There's another large tenant that has been rumored to be that we've been in dialogue with," Roth said, not directly naming the company. "That conversation is going forward aggressively and hopefully maybe even almost complete."

Rapid growth in Big Tech leasing before coronavirus

Recent real-estate decisions by Facebook and other tech companies have worried real-estate executives that they may reconsider their footprint after years of dramatic growth. Facebook on Thursday revealed that the bulk of its over 40,000-person workforce will be asked to work remotely for the remainder of the year, a timeline that appears to show the company is using caution in returning to its footprint.

Read More: Neiman Marcus just filed for bankruptcy, and it could mark a major blow to NYC's glitzy Hudson Yards — one of the most expensive mega-malls in US history. Here's why.

Real-estate executives have expressed concern that tenants may become accustomed to offloading a portion or even the bulk of their workforce to a remote-working model, leading them to drastically reduce their office commitments.

At a minimum, the economic upheaval has appeared to spur a newfound sense of caution in tech companies that have grown rapidly in recent years. Alphabet called off negotiations to expand its San Francisco offices by over 2 million square feet in recent weeks, according to a report from The Information.  

Tech has been a big driver of demand for office space

In recent years the tech industry had become one of the most voracious takers of space in the city, helping to push up commercial rents and spur the construction of new office space.

In 2019, tech firms accounted for 24.5% of the 31.6 million square feet of leasing activity in Manhattan, eclipsing the financial industry as the city's biggest space-taking sector for the first time, according to data from the real estate services and brokerage firm CBRE.

In 2010 tech leasing comprised just 4% of the 24.2 million square feet that was leased in the Manhattan market that year, CBRE said.

"Nothing has buoyed the confidence of landlords more in recent years than tech tenants," said Sacha Zarba, a leasing executive at CBRE who specializes in working with tech firms. "It didn't matter where your building was. If it was attractive to tech, you would stand a good chance to lease your space. If that industry retrenches a bit, it removes a big driver of demand."

The Manhattan office market has slowed rapidly in recent weeks as the virus crisis has battered the economy and shut down daily life.

About 844,000 square feet of space was leased in Manhattan in April, according to CBRE, 64% lower than the five-year monthly average. In the first four months of the year, nearly seven million square feet was leased, a decline of 30% for the same period a year ago. 

So far, however, there are signs that tech continues to snap up space.

After scuttling plans to develop a 25,000 person second headquarters space in Long Island City last year, Amazon purchased 424 Fifth Avenue, a former flagship department store for Lord & Taylor, for nearly $1 billion in March. That property totals about 660,000 square feet. Late last year, before the pandemic hit U.S. shores but had flared in China, Amazon also leased 335,000 square feet at 410 Tenth Avenue.

The commitments of major tech companies absorb millions of square feet in the city, but they also help fuel a larger ecosystem of tenants that occupies an even larger footprint. That means that a decrease in the real estate of just a few big tech players could be multiplied across the market as smaller players in the sector follow suit.

"Those big tech firms do a fantastic job of training and credentialing tech talent on the city," said Matt Harrigan, a co-founder of Company, a space incubator at 335 Madison Avenue that provides offices and community for both startups and more established tech firms. "Google and Facebook spin off talent who start or join other tech ventures that take space. That's what's so important about having the large presence of those companies here."

Have a tip? Contact Daniel Geiger at dgeiger@businessinsider.com or via encrypted messaging app Signal at +1 (646) 352-2884, or Twitter DM at @dangeiger79. You can also contact Business Insider securely via SecureDrop.

SEE ALSO: What to expect when you're back in the office: 7 real-estate experts break down what the transition will look like, and why the workplace may never be the same

SEE ALSO: Major tenants are delaying big leases in NYC as they re-think their office space needs for the post-coronavirus world

SEE ALSO: As WeWork and flex-space rivals stumble, 18 million square feet of space in NYC is at risk. Here's what that means for the real-estate market.

SEE ALSO: BI Prime Edit in Viking Neiman Marcus just filed for bankruptcy, and it could mark a major blow to NYC's glitzy Hudson Yards — one of the most expensive mega-malls in US history. Here's why.

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