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Businesses are cutting back on hours to avoid having to provide health care coverage under the new Affordable Care Act.

Steve Julian: Business analyst Mark Lacter, who's affected here?

Mark Lacter: Thirty hours a week is the magic number for workers to be considered full time under the new law.  If a business has 50 or more full-time employees, health care coverage has to be provided.  Except that a lot business owners say that the additional cost is going to be a financial killer, so instead, some of them have been cutting back hours to below that 30-hour threshold.  More than 200,000 Californians are at risk of losing hours from the health care law - that according to one study.

Julian: What kinds of businesses are doing this?

Lacter: Restaurant chains have received much of the attention, but the city of Long Beach, as an example, is going to reduce hours for a couple of hundred of its workers.  And, last week came word that the L.A.-based clothing chain Forever 21 will cut some of its full-time employees to a maximum 29-and-a-half hours a week, and classify them as part time.  That touched off an outcry on the Internet - people were saying that Forever 21 was being unfair and greedy - though the company says that only a small number of employees are affected, and that its decision has nothing to do with the Affordable Care Act.  There's really no way to know - Forever 21 is a private company, which means it's not obligated to disclose a whole lot.  What we do know is that those people will be losing their health care coverage.

Julian: And, the ultimate impact on businesses and workers?

Lacter: Steve, you're looking at several years before the picture becomes clear.  Here in California, workers not eligible for health care through their employer can get their own individual coverage, and if their income levels are not over a certain amount, they'd be eligible for Medicaid.  And, let's not forget many businesses already provide coverage for their employees.  So, lots of rhetoric - but, not many conclusions to draw from, which does make you wonder why so many business owners are unwilling to at least give this thing a chance.  Just doesn't seem to be much generosity of spirit for their workers, not to mention any recognition that if people can go to a doctor instead of an emergency room we'd probably all be better off.

Julian: Health care is far from the only controversy for Forever 21, true?

Lacter: In some ways, it's one of the biggest Southern California success stories.  Don Chang emigrated here in 1981 from Korea at the age of 18, opened his first store in Highland Park three years later (it was called Fashion 21), and he never looked back.  Today, revenues are approaching $4 billion.  But, the guy must have some pretty hefty legal bills because his company has been accused of all kinds of workplace violations.  The lawsuits alleged that workers preparing items for the Forever 21 stores didn't receive overtime, that they didn't get required work breaks, that they received substandard wages, and that they worked in dirty and unsafe conditions - sweatshop conditions, essentially.

Julian: Are most of their claims settled out of court?  You don't hear much about them.

Lacter: They are, which means there's usually a minimal amount of media coverage.  If a privately held company decides to keep quiet by not releasing financial results or other operational information, there's not likely to be much of a story - unlike what happens with a company like Apple, which is always under scrutiny.  Sometimes, plaintiffs will try to organize class-action suits, but that's extremely tough when you're dealing with low-wage workers who are often very reluctant to get involved because of their legal status.  And, let's not forget that Forever 21 - like any low-cost retailer - is simply catering to the demand for cheap, stylish clothes that are made as quickly as possible.

Julian: I guess you can't make that happen when wages and benefits are appreciably higher than your competition.

Lacter: The next time you walk into a Forever 21 store and wonder how prices can be so reasonable, that's how.

Mark Lacter writes for Los Angeles Magazine and pens the business blog at LA Observed.com.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

We've been reporting on the city of Los Angeles approving major developments without seismic studies attached.

Steve Julian: Business analyst Mark Lacter, why is this?

Mark Lacter: Steve, this is a real gotcha moment for the L.A. Planning Department, the City Council, and everyone else at City Hall who signed off on these projects.  The latest revelation, which was reported by the L.A. Times, shows that a planned 39-story residential tower in Century City is just 300 feet from the active Santa Monica fault.  And, we're only learning about this because the Metropolitan Transportation Authority did its own seismic testing near the site when it was looking for potential subway stops, and officials decided that it was too close to the fault.  This also comes after three large-scale projects in Hollywood were found to be located quite close to the active Hollywood fault.

Julian: The concern is that if any faults were to rupture, the foundation of a building could be split apart.

Lacter: Kind of an inconvenient truth both for the developers, who have millions of dollars riding on these projects, and for L.A. city officials who are betting on a future that will include many more high rises.  And, we should note that more than two-dozen high rises are either in the process of going up, or are at least on the drawing board.  In case you're wondering why there aren't regulations that monitor this sort of thing, the answer is that there are regulations.  California has a law that requires state geologists to map active earthquake faults, and then set zones on either side of the fault line.

Julian: Has the state done this?

Lacter: The state says it hasn't had the time nor the money to map areas within the city of L.A., though the faults have been known to be in the general vicinity of these projects - and so, you'd think the city would want them tested extensively.  Of course, that would mean more delays, which the developers wouldn't be happy with.

Julian: Of course, seismic studies are not always definitive.

Lacter: They're not - and it's possible that different geologists would come up with different findings.  But so far, most of the information seems to be coming from the developers, and you have to wonder whether it's a great idea to rely on folks who have a financial interest in a project to tell us what's safe and what isn't.  Probably not.

Julian: Your article in the new issue of Los Angeles Magazine raises a broader point about the city's business climate.

Lacter: Steve, for many years, L.A. has been branded as a terrible place to do business because of government interference, but that's largely a myth.  If anything, city officials have been too accommodating.  Frankly, the anti-business rap never made much sense when you consider the thousands of companies that start up here each year.  A study by the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers ranks L.A. particularly high when it comes to ease of doing business, which runs counter to the conventional wisdom.

Julian: You're not saying it's truly easy, are you?

Lacter: Easy, no.  There certainly are plenty of reasons for business owners to pull out their hair.  And those hassles, along with an unemployment rate that remains quite high, has given developers and others the leverage to ask for various giveaways.  All they have to do is say that their projects will generate more jobs, and city officials tend to respond favorably - no matter how questionable those proposals might be.  And, by the way, job creation doesn't always determine economic growth, certainly not in the short term.

Julian: We all remember during the mayoral campaign, candidates were talking about how their policies would lead to lower unemployment...

Lacter: ...right, almost like they could pick up jobs at Ralphs.  Well, it doesn't work that way.  Thing is, the city of L.A. doesn't need to cut so many deals - the local economy is rich enough and broad enough to keep prospering.  Which is why city officials would be much better off laying off the incentives, and focusing on the basics - public safety, transportation, the parks, and libraries.  Do that right, and the business climate will take care of itself.

Mark Lacter writes for Los Angeles Magazine and pens the business blog at LA Observed.com.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

It's late October, which means  more and more stores are decorating for Christmas. 

Steve Julian:  Business analyst Mark Lacter, whatever happened to "better late than never?" 

Mark Lacter: Steve, retailers never want to sell late because it often means having to reduce the price. They're looking to start out as soon as possible - these last three months represent their biggest payday of the year. And here in California people do seem to be buying stuff - consumer spending has been up for 14 consecutive quarters, going back to the spring of 2009, and taxable sales are up almost 5 percent from the peak levels before the recession. Another good sign is Chapman University's index of consumer sentiment, which is at its highest level since the beginning of the recession in late 2007. All these indicators explain why the state economy is generally outpacing the rest of the nation.

Julian: There has to be a "but" in here someplace…

 Lacter: The "but" is that only 60 percent of the jobs lost during the downturn have been recovered, and the unemployment rate in many parts of the state, including L.A. County, is still at or above 10 percent, which isn't what you'd call a healthy economy. And that's why holiday shopping this year could end up being sort of hit and miss. Folks who have well-paying jobs and a bunch of their money in the stock market - and Southern California has its share of both - those folks will probably be spending good amounts. 

Julian: Are there geographic tell-tale signs?

Lacter: The closer to the coast you go, the more spending there's likely to be. But it's a different story if you're feeling vulnerable about your job or in the amount of savings you have in the bank. So you have retailers once again coming up with ways of reaching as many budget-conscious folks as possible, as early as possible. The most obvious move is opening their stores on Thanksgiving night - Macy's is the latest of the chains to get a head start on Black Friday (Target, Kohl's, Walmart and J.C. Penney will also be open). Another strategy is matching your prices with the prices on Amazon and other online retailers - also, retailers will use mobile apps and arrange in-store pickup of online purchases. All told, expect holiday sales to run 3 percent ahead of last year, with the L.A. area likely to be a bit higher. Decent, but not great.

 Julian: What's the message to consumers now: buy or not buy?

 Lacter: Well, we'll start with the good news - gasoline prices are at their lowest level since the beginning of the year, with an average gallon of regular in the L.A. area running $3.75, according to the Auto Club. And barring any refinery fires or international catastrophes, the numbers might keep falling into November and December, which could incentivize consumers to buy a little more at the shopping malls. Here's some more good news - the L.A. area has seen a huge drop in the number of homeowners who are underwater, which happens when the value of a property is less than the amount that's owed on the property. This of course was a big problem during the recession, but over the last year the median home values have gone up between 20 percent and 30 percent. 

 Julian: And if your equity is positive instead of negative, you'll probably feel more confident about spending. 

 Lacter: That's right. But there are also deterrents to spending - as has been reported, a few hundred thousand Californians lose their individual health care policies by the end of the year because their plans don't meet the requirements of the Affordable Care Act. Policyholders will be stuck in many cases with a premium increase, possibly a big increase. Now it's possible that in the long run these folks will be better off with a more inclusive plan that results in lower out-of-pocket expenses. But it'a hard to ignore the sticker shock of having to shell out, say, $250 a month instead of $100.

 Julian: There goes the holiday list...

 Lacter: For those folks, yes. And even though L.A. consumers do a good job of separating their feelings about Washington with their desire to spend, the economy is bound to slow down a little. So Steve, just don't count on that $9,000 fur vest I was going to get you for Christmas. Sorry about that…

Mark Lacter writes for Los Angeles Magazine and pens the business blog at LA Observed.com.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

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