Nicole Bohme Carnegie.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 1, 90--93.

Abstract:
With a thorough exposition of the methods and results of the 2016 Atlantic Causal Inference Competition, Dorie et al. have set a new standard for reproducibility and comparability of evaluations of causal inference methods. In particular, the open-source R package aciccomp2016, which permits reproduction of all datasets used in the competition, will be an invaluable resource for evaluation of future methodological developments. Building upon results from Dorie et al., we examine whether a set of potential modifications to Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART)—multiple chains in model fitting, using the propensity score as a covariate, targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), and computing symmetric confidence intervals—have a stronger impact on bias, RMSE, and confidence interval coverage in combination than they do alone. We find that bias in the estimate of SATT is minimal, regardless of the BART formulation. For purposes of CI coverage, however, all proposed modifications are beneficial—alone and in combination—but use of TMLE is least beneficial for coverage and results in considerably wider confidence intervals.

Ehud Karavani, Tal El-Hay, Yishai Shimoni, Chen Yanover.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 1, 86--89.

Abstract:
Data competitions proved to be highly beneficial to the field of machine learning, and thus expected to provide similar advantages in the field of causal inference. As participants in the 2016 and 2017 Atlantic Causal Inference Conference (ACIC) data competitions and co-organizers of the 2018 competition, we discuss the strengths of simulation-based competitions and suggest potential extensions to address their limitations. These suggested augmentations aim at making the data generating processes more realistic and gradually increase in complexity, allowing thorough investigations of algorithms’ performance. We further outline a community-wide competition framework to evaluate an end-to-end causal inference pipeline, beginning with a causal question and a database, and ending with causal estimates.

Susan Gruber, Mark J. van der Laan.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 1, 82--85.

Abstract:
Dorie and co-authors (DHSSC) are to be congratulated for initiating the ACIC Data Challenge. Their project engaged the community and accelerated research by providing a level playing field for comparing the performance of a priori specified algorithms. DHSSC identified themes concerning characteristics of the DGP, properties of the estimators, and inference. We discuss these themes in the context of targeted learning.

Elizabeth A. Stuart

Source: Statist. Sci., Volume 25, Number 1, 1--21.

Abstract:
When estimating causal effects using observational data, it is desirable to replicate a randomized experiment as closely as possible by obtaining treated and control groups with similar covariate distributions. This goal can often be achieved by choosing well-matched samples of the original treated and control groups, thereby reducing bias due to the covariates. Since the 1970s, work on matching methods has examined how to best choose treated and control subjects for comparison. Matching methods are gaining popularity in fields such as economics, epidemiology, medicine and political science. However, until now the literature and related advice has been scattered across disciplines. Researchers who are interested in using matching methods—or developing methods related to matching—do not have a single place to turn to learn about past and current research. This paper provides a structure for thinking about matching methods and guidance on their use, coalescing the existing research (both old and new) and providing a summary of where the literature on matching methods is now and where it should be headed.

[London?], [199-?]

London, 26 January 2003.

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William W. Seeley
Feb 28, 2007; 27:2349-2356
BehavioralSystemsCognitive

Peter M. Zygmunt
Jun 1, 2002; 22:4720-4727
Behavioral

Stefan Klöppel
Mar 3, 2010; 30:3271-3275
BRIEF COMMUNICATION

Martin N. Hebart
Jun 13, 2012; 32:8107-8109
Journal Club

Christina Zelano
Dec 7, 2016; 36:12448-12467
Systems/Circuits

William W. Seeley
Feb 28, 2007; 27:2349-2356
BehavioralSystemsCognitive

Italian translation of the BIS Press Release on the presentation of the Annual Report (25 June 2017)

Italian translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, September 2017

Italian translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, December 2017

Italian translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, March 2019

French translation of the press release about the Basel Committee publishing a discussion paper on "The regulatory treatment of sovereign exposures" (7 December 2017)

French translation of "Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms", December 2017.

French translation of BIS press release on the presentation of the Annual Economic Report 2018, 24 June 2018. Les responsables des politiques publiques peuvent prolonger la phase de croissance actuelle en engageant des réformes structurelles, en restaurant les marges de manoeuvre monétaires et budgétaires pour faire face aux menaces futures et en encourageant une mise en oeuvre rapide des réformes réglementaires, indique la Banque des Règlements Internationaux (BRI) dans son Rapport économique annuel. ...

French translation of speech delivered by Mr Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the BIS, on the occasion of the Bank's Annual General Meeting, Basel, 24 June 2018. Mesdames et Messieurs, j'ai le plaisir de vous présenter aujourd'hui la première édition du Rapport économique annuel de la BRI. Les trois premiers chapitres analysent les évolutions, perspectives et risques de l'économie mondiale, en s'attachant plus particulièrement à la politique monétaire et aux réformes de la réglementation financière, aux marchés et aux acteurs de l'intermédiation. Nous consacrons deux chapitres spéciaux à des enjeux actuels : une analyse des dispositifs macroprudentiels d'une part, une étude relative aux cryptomonnaies d'autre part....

French translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, December 2018

More than any other factor, it is our asset that determines our adversary. For most of us, our asset is the corpus of sensitive personal details used for online transactions. This all comes down to how much data an adversary can glean from you, and how thoroughly it can analyze it. If your data passes through some software or hardware, its developer or maintainer enjoys some measure of control.

Like conventional criminals, criminal hackers choose easy, lucrative targets. One group in the crosshairs is made up of companies that have data on millions of users, such as private sector entities with a Web presence. Why go after one user at a time when data is collected in one place? Criminal hackers also like to hunt small organizations that have modest capital but weak information security.

People have been giving presentations for thousands of years, from Moses with his stone tablets to Elon Musk revealing his grand plans to colonize Mars. While the elements of a great pitchman generally have remained the same over the past 5,000 years -- conviction, charisma, credibility -- today's successful presenters do more than just get in front of an audience and talk.

Does your customer relationship management strategy have what it takes to reach Generation Y? It's estimated that by 2021, an additional $394 billion in revenue could be gained from artificial intelligence adoption in CRM activities in the U.S. As companies grow and technology evolves at a faster-than-ever pace, collecting, storing and providing data is becoming a bigger and bigger task.

Contact tracing is a big job, like trying to drain an ocean with a teaspoon. It involves finding people who have been exposed to the coronavirus and testing them to determine if they are infected or are carriers. Public health officials then can take necessary steps to prevent the virus' spread. It's a perfect fit for CRM, and Salesforce's core technology is coming to the forefront.

A prominent theory claims that the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) is especially associated with embodied processes relevant to perspective-taking. In the present study, we use high-definition transcranial direct current stimulation to provide evidence that the rTPJ is causally associated with the embodied processes underpinning perspective-taking. Eighty-eight young human adults were stratified to receive either rTPJ or dorsomedial PFC anodal high-definition transcranial direct current stimulation in a sham-controlled, double-blind, repeated-measures design. Perspective-tracking (line-of-sight) and perspective-taking (embodied rotation) were assessed using a visuo-spatial perspective-taking task that required understanding what another person could see or how they see it, respectively. Embodied processing was manipulated by positioning the participant in a manner congruent or incongruent with the orientation of an avatar on the screen. As perspective-taking, but not perspective-tracking, is influenced by bodily position, this allows the investigation of the specific causal role for the rTPJ in embodied processing. Crucially, anodal stimulation to the rTPJ increased the effect of bodily position during perspective-taking, whereas no such effects were identified during perspective-tracking, thereby providing evidence for a causal role for the rTPJ in the embodied component of perspective-taking. Stimulation to the dorsomedial PFC had no effect on perspective-tracking or taking. Therefore, the present study provides support for theories postulating that the rTPJ is causally involved in embodied cognitive processing relevant to social functioning.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The ability to understand another's perspective is a fundamental component of social functioning. Adopting another perspective is thought to involve both embodied and nonembodied processes. The present study used high-definition transcranial direct current stimulation (HD-tDCS) and provided causal evidence that the right temporoparietal junction is involved specifically in the embodied component of perspective-taking. Specifically, HD-tDCS to the right temporoparietal junction, but not another hub of the social brain (dorsomedial PFC), increased the effect of body position during perspective-taking, but not tracking. This is the first causal evidence that HD-tDCS can modulate social embodied processing in a site-specific and task-specific manner.

Investment of cognitive effort is required in everyday life and has received ample attention in recent neurocognitive frameworks. The neural mechanism of effort investment is thought to be structured hierarchically, with dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) at the highest level, recruiting task-specific upstream areas. In the current fMRI study, we tested whether dACC is generally active when effort demand is high across tasks with different stimuli, and whether connectivity between dACC and task-specific areas is increased depending on the task requirements and effort level at hand. For that purpose, a perceptual detection task was administered that required male and female human participants to detect either a face or a house in a noisy image. Effort demand was manipulated by adding little (low effort) or much (high effort) noise to the images. Results showed a network of dACC, anterior insula (AI), and intraparietal sulcus (IPS) to be more active when effort demand was high, independent of the performed task (face or house detection). Importantly, effort demand modulated functional connectivity between dACC and face-responsive or house-responsive perceptual areas, depending on the task at hand. This shows that dACC, AI, and IPS constitute a general effort-responsive network and suggests that the neural implementation of cognitive effort involves dACC-initiated sensitization of task-relevant areas.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Although cognitive effort is generally perceived as aversive, its investment is inevitable when navigating an increasingly complex society. In this study, we demonstrate how the human brain tailors the implementation of effort to the requirements of the task at hand. We show increased effort-related activity in a network of brain areas consisting of dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC), anterior insula, and intraparietal sulcus, independent of task specifics. Crucially, we also show that effort-induced functional connectivity between dACC and task-relevant areas tracks specific task demands. These results demonstrate how brain regions specialized to solve a task may be energized by dACC when effort demand is high.

The superior colliculus (SC) is arguably the most important visual structure in the mouse brain and is well known for its involvement in innate responses to visual threats and prey items. In other species, the SC plays a central role in voluntary as well as innate visual functions, including crucial contributions to selective attention and perceptual decision-making. In the mouse, the possible role of the SC in voluntary visual choice behaviors has not been established. Here, we demonstrate that the mouse SC of both sexes plays a causal role in visual perceptual decision-making by transiently inhibiting SC activity during an orientation change detection task. First, unilateral SC inhibition-induced spatially specific deficits in detection. Hit rates were reduced, and reaction times increased for orientation changes in the contralateral but not ipsilateral visual field. Second, the deficits caused by SC inhibition were specific to a temporal epoch coincident with early visual burst responses in the SC. Inhibiting SC during this 100-ms period caused a contralateral detection deficit, whereas inhibition immediately before or after did not. Third, SC inhibition reduced visual detection sensitivity. Psychometric analysis revealed that inhibiting SC visual activity significantly increased detection thresholds for contralateral orientation changes. In addition, effects on detection thresholds and lapse rates caused by SC inhibition were larger in the presence of a competing visual stimulus, indicating a role for the mouse SC in visual target selection. Together, our results demonstrate that the mouse SC is necessary for the normal performance of voluntary visual choice behaviors.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The mouse superior colliculus (SC) has become a popular model for studying the circuit organization and development of the visual system. Although the SC is a fundamental component of the visual pathways in mice, its role in visual perceptual decision-making is not clear. By investigating how temporally precise SC inhibition influenced behavioral performance during a visually guided orientation change detection task, we identified a 100-ms temporal epoch of SC visual activity that is crucial for the ability of mice to detect behaviorally relevant visual changes. In addition, we found that SC inhibition also caused deficits in visual target selection. Thus, our findings highlight the importance of the SC for visual perceptual choice behavior in the mouse.

Total food losses have been estimated at 1.3 billion tons per year, which represents roughly one-third of the world food production for human consumption. The economic value of food losses and waste amounts to $680 billion in industrialized countries and $310 billion in developing countries. In total, food loss and waste amount to one trillion dollars globally. Lost and wasted food [...]

Did you know that cash transfer (CT) programmes in countries of the sub-Saharan Africa actually have a significant impact? In Malawi, these programmes helped families invest in agricultural equipment and livestock to produce their own food and reduce levels of negative coping strategies, like begging and school drop-outs. In Kenya, secondary school attendance rose by 9 percent and access to [...]

Maize, rice and wheat are fundamental to world food security. We must safeguard production in the world’s grain belts and rice bowls, and increase yields in countries where production has to substantially improve as populations grow. Climate change adds new pressures on cereals, including rising temperatures and a higher incidence of pests, diseases, droughts and floods. FAO’s model of ecosystem-based agriculture, [...]

The oceans have it all: from microscopic life to the largest animal that has ever lived on Earth, from the colourless to the shimmering, from the frozen to the boiling and from the sunlit to the mysterious dark of the deepest parts of the planet. Oceans are an essential component of the Earth's ecosystem -- a source of biodiversity, food, and [...]

With the health of our oceans at stake, illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing has quickly become a monumental problem. The term “IUU fishing” is used for any fishing activities that operate outside of the law. There are many types of IUU fishing, for example, fishing without license or authorization, not accurately reporting the fish caught, fishing in prohibited areas [...]