Emily Berg, Danhyang Lee.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2158--2188.

Abstract:
Quantiles of the distributions of several measures of erosion are important parameters in the Conservation Effects Assessment Project, a survey intended to quantify soil and nutrient loss on crop fields. Because sample sizes for domains of interest are too small to support reliable direct estimators, model based methods are needed. Quantile regression is appealing for CEAP because finding a single family of parametric models that adequately describes the distributions of all variables is difficult and small area quantiles are parameters of interest. We construct empirical Bayes predictors and bootstrap mean squared error estimators based on the linearly interpolated generalized Pareto distribution (LIGPD). We apply the procedures to predict county-level quantiles for four types of erosion in Wisconsin and validate the procedures through simulation.

Abdelaati Daouia, Stéphane Girard, Gilles Stupfler.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 531--556.

Abstract:
Expectiles define a least squares analogue of quantiles. They are determined by tail expectations rather than tail probabilities. For this reason and many other theoretical and practical merits, expectiles have recently received a lot of attention, especially in actuarial and financial risk management. Their estimation, however, typically requires to consider non-explicit asymmetric least squares estimates rather than the traditional order statistics used for quantile estimation. This makes the study of the tail expectile process a lot harder than that of the standard tail quantile process. Under the challenging model of heavy-tailed distributions, we derive joint weighted Gaussian approximations of the tail empirical expectile and quantile processes. We then use this powerful result to introduce and study new estimators of extreme expectiles and the standard quantile-based expected shortfall, as well as a novel expectile-based form of expected shortfall. Our estimators are built on general weighted combinations of both top order statistics and asymmetric least squares estimates. Some numerical simulations and applications to actuarial and financial data are provided.

Tobias Zwingmann, Hajo Holzmann.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 323--351.

Abstract:
We show weak convergence of quantile and expectile processes to Gaussian limit processes in the space of bounded functions endowed with an appropriate semimetric which is based on the concepts of epi- and hypo- convergence as introduced in A. Bücher, J. Segers and S. Volgushev (2014), ‘ When Uniform Weak Convergence Fails: Empirical Processes for Dependence Functions and Residuals via Epi- and Hypographs ’, Annals of Statistics 42 . We impose assumptions for which it is known that weak convergence with respect to the supremum norm generally fails to hold. For quantiles, we consider stationary observations, where the marginal distribution function is assumed to be strictly increasing and continuous except for finitely many points and to admit strictly positive – possibly infinite – left- and right-sided derivatives. For expectiles, we focus on independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations. Only a finite second moment and continuity at the boundary points but no further smoothness properties of the distribution function are required. We also show consistency of the bootstrap for this mode of convergence in the i.i.d. case for quantiles and expectiles.

Zhi-Qiang Wang, Nian-Sheng Tang.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 15, Number 2, 579--604.

Abstract:
Bayesian inference on quantile regression (QR) model with mixed discrete and non-ignorable missing covariates is conducted by reformulating QR model as a hierarchical structure model. A probit regression model is adopted to specify missing covariate mechanism. A hybrid algorithm combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is developed to simultaneously produce Bayesian estimates of unknown parameters and latent variables as well as their corresponding standard errors. Bayesian variable selection method is proposed to recognize significant covariates. A Bayesian local influence procedure is presented to assess the effect of minor perturbations to the data, priors and sampling distributions on posterior quantities of interest. Several simulation studies and an example are presented to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Kelly C. M. Gonçalves, Hélio S. Migon, Leonardo S. Bastos.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 15, Number 2, 335--362.

Abstract:
The paper introduces a new class of models, named dynamic quantile linear models, which combines dynamic linear models with distribution-free quantile regression producing a robust statistical method. Bayesian estimation for the dynamic quantile linear model is performed using an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The paper also proposes a fast sequential procedure suited for high-dimensional predictive modeling with massive data, where the generating process is changing over time. The proposed model is evaluated using synthetic and well-known time series data. The model is also applied to predict annual incidence of tuberculosis in the state of Rio de Janeiro and compared with global targets set by the World Health Organization.

Italian translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, March 2018

French translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, March 2018

Spanish translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, March 2018

Awareness for surprising sensory events is shaped by prior belief inferred from past experience. Here, we combined hierarchical Bayesian modeling with fMRI on an associative learning task in 28 male human participants to characterize the effect of the prior belief of tactile events on connections mediating the outcome of perceptual decisions. Activity in anterior insular cortex (AIC), premotor cortex (PMd), and inferior parietal lobule (IPL) were modulated by prior belief on unexpected targets compared with expected targets. On expected targets, prior belief decreased the connection strength from AIC to IPL, whereas it increased the connection strength from AIC to PMd when targets were unexpected. Individual differences in the modulatory strength of prior belief on insular projections correlated with the precision that increases the influence of prediction errors on belief updating. These results suggest complementary effects of prior belief on insular-frontoparietal projections mediating the precision of prediction during probabilistic tactile learning.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT In a probabilistic environment, the prior belief of sensory events can be inferred from past experiences. How this prior belief modulates effective brain connectivity for updating expectations for future decision-making remains unexplored. Combining hierarchical Bayesian modeling with fMRI, we show that during tactile associative learning, prior expectations modulate connections originating in the anterior insula cortex and targeting salience-related and attention-related frontoparietal areas (i.e., parietal and premotor cortex). These connections seem to be involved in updating evidence based on the precision of ascending inputs to guide future decision-making.

The Farmers’ Market has been postponed for Friday 6 March and until further notice.

Pizza and pasta are pretty obviously out, but what are the other no-nos?

Delaying the Games for a year is considered by many to be the best course of action for public health

Some distilleries are donating their new product to local communities in need

The missionary who lived in the house during the mid-1800s delivered vaccinations to locals during a smallpox epidemic

These flying reptiles patrolled the African skies some 100 million years ago

Days before Saint John council passed a motion to ensure Saint John Energy could not be sold, the Ontario cities of Peterborough and Orillia both got approval to sell their municipally owned power distribution companies.

<span class="topsy_trackback_comment"><span class="topsy_twitter_username"><span class="topsy_trackback_content">RT @imconair: Hrithik Roshan still under medication http://bit.ly/gFyC3O #IMCRadio.net</span></span>

In a new twist on oral history, University of Alberta paleontologists have discovered that an Argentinian reptile from 95 million years ago developed a type of tooth enamel that is common in humans and other mammals but rare among reptiles.

We assess the dynamics of volatility spillovers among global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). We measure spillovers using vector-autoregressive models of range volatility of the equity prices of G-SIBs, together with machine learning methods. We then compare the size of these spillovers with the degree of systemic importance measured by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's G-SIB bucket designations.

Manitoba health officials says visits can be done via the internet, through window panes, or outside at a distance if everyone is healthy. People whose moms are in a hospital or a care home can still drop off gifts of food or clothing.

See volume, open interest, and other trading highlights for Fertilizer swaps and futures markets offered by CME Group.

How Music Therapists Helped A Mother Connect With The Newborn She Still Hasn’t Met  Houston Public Media

To a sister, till we meet again  The Tribune India

While all eyes have been on the huge fall in the outright price of crude oil, the oil options markets...

The post Crude Oil Options Are Predicting Lasting Volatility appeared first on OpenMarkets.

The volatility experienced this spring in the 7 trillion-dollar foreign exchange market was unprecedented. The JP Morgan G7 FX Volatility...

The post OpenMarkets Weekly: FX Volatility appeared first on OpenMarkets.

This collection of songs heard on Saskatoon Morning will be updated weekly.

The province's networks of labs processed 15,179 tests in the last 24 hours, more than any of the three days previous but still short of the 16,000 tests per day target set back in April.

Is the Republican indulgence of the president bottomless?

Fears that COVID-19 would spread at the Hamilton-Wentworth Detention Centre appear not to have materialized — at least not yet.

Hamilton Conservation Authority is re-opening the Hamilton-to-Branford Rail Trail, while the city announced the reopening of the Hamilton Waterfront Trail, between Confederation Park and the Burlington Lift Bridge.

See volume, open interest, and other trading highlights for Fertilizer swaps and futures markets offered by CME Group.

Central Bank of Chile Working Papers by Andrés Sagner

Apple's first product to integrate Mini LED display technology might see a later-than-expected launch timeline due to setbacks caused by the coronavirus pandemic, according to new research from TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Denver Newsroom, May 8, 2020 / 05:29 pm (CNA).- Mother’s Day is going to look different for most families this year, due to the coronavirus pandemic.

For Catholics, some churches are in the process of slowly re-opening public Masses, but the dispensation from the Sunday obligation continues to stand, as the virus has not gone away and a cure or vaccine has yet to be found.

While most Catholics are eager to return to Mass, a small group of Catholics are relieved that they will not be sitting in a public pew this Mother’s Day.

“We actually heard from one woman who said, ‘I kind of feel badly about saying this, but I'm sort of glad that we won't be in the pews this year for Mother's Day,’” Ann Koshute, founder of Springs in the Desert Catholic ministry, told CNA.


“That's something that we hear and that everybody I think on the team has experienced at one point in this journey,” she said - the desire to avoid Mass on Mother’s Day. That’s because Koshute, along with other members of her ministry, have had painful experiences with infertility, and the customary Mother’s Day blessing given to mothers at many parishes that day can bring their grief and sense of loss poignantly to the fore.


“I think that so often people in our own families, our friends, and even our pastors don't really understand the full extent of the pain and the grief or even the full extent of the issue of infertility, of how many couples are really dealing with it,” she said.


The pain of infertility, and the lack of resources available to Catholics on the subject, was why Koshute and her friend, Kimberly Henkel, founded Springs in the Desert, a Catholic ministry to spiritually and emotionally support women and couples experiencing infertility and infant loss. Originally, Henkel and Koshute, who have both experienced infertility, thought they might write a book. But they decided to start with a ministry website and a blog that could bring people together and allow for other women and couples to share their experiences. The group is relatively new, and held its first retreat in Philadelphia in December. They were set to hold a second one this weekend - Mother’s Day weekend - in the Diocese of Fort Wayne-South Bend, when, well, the pandemic hit.

Now, they’ve moved the retreat online and opened it up to Catholics across the country - and they’ve been overwhelmed by the response.

“We thought that we would be really excited if maybe a couple dozen people found out about it and came. We are over 100 participants now. And it's free and it's going to be available all weekend,” Koshute said. The retreat is trying to address the emotional and spiritual experience of infertility and loss for a broad range of people, Henkel said - from mothers who have miscarried, to women who are past child-bearing years and still grieving the loss of infertility, to women “who feel like their biological clocks are ticking and just haven’t met the right guy.” But now that it's a virtual, pre-recorded, watch-at-your-leisure retreat, it also has the potential to reach a population that is often more reluctant to gather in groups and talk about their experiences of infertility: men. “It's mostly women who are emailing us (about the retreat), although we know that many of their husbands will watch with them. But we've also had a few men email us,” Koshute said.


“One in particular, it just really touched my heart. And he said that he was searching the web for help for his wife on Mother's Day. And I was just so filled with praise and thanksgiving to God for that, for a husband to see that hurt in his wife and to want to find a way to help her,” she added. Men and women typically experience the grief of infertility quite differently, Koshute noted. “For us women, it's so visceral because life is conceived within us and we carry that life. But for a man, it's so different,” she said.

“(Men are) kind of distant from that experience until the child is actually born. And so I think many times men, the grief and the burden that they carry is their wife's. They really carry her sadness and I think feel at a loss because they want to make everything right. They want to fix this, and they want to make her whole. And the mystery of infertility is that it's not that simple. And that's one of the things that makes it so difficult,” she said. Henkel said she experienced her own difficulties in trying to discuss infertility with her husband. Now that they’ve experienced the joy of growing their family through adoption, she said, he is much more open to inviting other men to share their experiences. Henkel said she is hoping that an additional benefit of this retreat being online is that it will facilitate discussions between couples watching the videos together. Both Henkel and Koshute said that while the experience of infertility and loss is painful, and they want to help couples acknowledge and accept that pain, they also want Springs in the Desert to be a positive and supportive experience for couples and women, where they can find hope and redemption even in their suffering. One of the topics they focus on is how all women are called to motherhood in their lives, whether it is spiritual or biological.

“My experience has shown me that my motherhood is really engaged in so many ways that I never considered before,” Koshute said.

“Not just with my godson or with other children in my family, but with women who are older than I who are friends and who might come to me with a difficulty or problem and I can help them,” or by helping family members in need or through charitable works, she added. “That's one of the messages that we try to get across to women and to couples as well, that those kinds of things, what we would maybe refer to as spiritual motherhood, is not illegitimate,” she said.

“It's not second-place. It's a real way of engaging and living out our motherhood. It's also not a replacement for a baby. So it's not as if you go out and volunteer in your community and now you won't have this longing for a child anymore. But we've really found through our own experience and through talking with other women that the more we kind of put ourselves out there and give ourselves to others, the more that we can begin to see that motherhood enacted in us.”

Henkel said she also likes to encourage couples to look at the ways God is calling them to be fruitful in their marriages outside of biological children.

“We really encourage these couples that they are not forgotten, they're not being punished. That God loves them so much and that he has something amazing for them. He's using this to draw them near to him and to allow them to cry out to him and ask for him to guide them, to lead them, to give them his love and show them what fruitfulness he has for them, what place in ministry and mission he has for them.” Henkel and her husband in particular like to share with couples their experience of foster care as one example of where God might be calling them to be fruitful. After a frustrating and expensive experience with some adoption agencies, Henkel and her husband decided to look into giving a home to children through foster care.

“Here is a situation where these children really need families,” she said. “It's hard because there's no guarantee you're going to get to keep this child, so there's a sense of this new greater level of having to learn how to trust God.” “I think that with a couple discerning that fruitfulness, it's also discerning - where is God really calling you? There's so much need in this world. And he wants to use us.”

Couples interested in the Springs in the Desert Mother’s Day weekend retreat can sign up for free online at the Springs in the Desert website. Content will be uploaded and available for anyone who registers, Henkel said, even if they register late. The retreat team will also be hosting a live talk on Sunday, May 10 at 2 p.m. Eastern on the ministry’s Facebook page.

“There's a place for you in Springs of the Desert,” Henkel added. “There's so many women who have reached out to us in Philly. We added several more women to our group, to our team, our official team, women who came to the retreat. One woman had come there and she said she had had a miscarriage, and neither one of us has experienced that. So we said, please join us. We want your voice.”

“We're trying to really bring the voices of many different women to our team so that people will feel there is somebody that is talking they can really relate to. Because there are all of these different situations, but they've got obviously a very similar undercurrent.”

2D design Despite the great popularity of spatial design programs and their unquestioned advantages, 2D design programs such as AutoCAD are still very popular and useful. One of such programs is DraftSight, which over the years has become very recognizable

Author information

The post DraftSight 2019 – new, better … and not free to use anymore 2D CAD – but it’s still worth it! appeared first on SOLIDWORKS Tech Blog.

Who wants to work harder, using the same outdated methods, when new tools are available? Not me! There might not always be an “easy button” …. but sometimes there is: 3D Interconnect. Since its introduction in SOLIDWORKS 2017, I have

Author information

The post 3D Interconnect – SOLIDWORKS “Multilingual” CAD Tool appeared first on SOLIDWORKS Tech Blog.

German translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, March 2018

Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe says that if there is appetite for nuclear power in the market, the SA government will pursue it over the next five years.

A Jewish family witnesses the power of Jesus when two Christians pray for a sick boy.

Denver Newsroom, May 8, 2020 / 05:29 pm (CNA).- Mother’s Day is going to look different for most families this year, due to the coronavirus pandemic.

For Catholics, some churches are in the process of slowly re-opening public Masses, but the dispensation from the Sunday obligation continues to stand, as the virus has not gone away and a cure or vaccine has yet to be found.

While most Catholics are eager to return to Mass, a small group of Catholics are relieved that they will not be sitting in a public pew this Mother’s Day.

“We actually heard from one woman who said, ‘I kind of feel badly about saying this, but I'm sort of glad that we won't be in the pews this year for Mother's Day,’” Ann Koshute, founder of Springs in the Desert Catholic ministry, told CNA.


“That's something that we hear and that everybody I think on the team has experienced at one point in this journey,” she said - the desire to avoid Mass on Mother’s Day. That’s because Koshute, along with other members of her ministry, have had painful experiences with infertility, and the customary Mother’s Day blessing given to mothers at many parishes that day can bring their grief and sense of loss poignantly to the fore.


“I think that so often people in our own families, our friends, and even our pastors don't really understand the full extent of the pain and the grief or even the full extent of the issue of infertility, of how many couples are really dealing with it,” she said.


The pain of infertility, and the lack of resources available to Catholics on the subject, was why Koshute and her friend, Kimberly Henkel, founded Springs in the Desert, a Catholic ministry to spiritually and emotionally support women and couples experiencing infertility and infant loss. Originally, Henkel and Koshute, who have both experienced infertility, thought they might write a book. But they decided to start with a ministry website and a blog that could bring people together and allow for other women and couples to share their experiences. The group is relatively new, and held its first retreat in Philadelphia in December. They were set to hold a second one this weekend - Mother’s Day weekend - in the Diocese of Fort Wayne-South Bend, when, well, the pandemic hit.

Now, they’ve moved the retreat online and opened it up to Catholics across the country - and they’ve been overwhelmed by the response.

“We thought that we would be really excited if maybe a couple dozen people found out about it and came. We are over 100 participants now. And it's free and it's going to be available all weekend,” Koshute said. The retreat is trying to address the emotional and spiritual experience of infertility and loss for a broad range of people, Henkel said - from mothers who have miscarried, to women who are past child-bearing years and still grieving the loss of infertility, to women “who feel like their biological clocks are ticking and just haven’t met the right guy.” But now that it's a virtual, pre-recorded, watch-at-your-leisure retreat, it also has the potential to reach a population that is often more reluctant to gather in groups and talk about their experiences of infertility: men. “It's mostly women who are emailing us (about the retreat), although we know that many of their husbands will watch with them. But we've also had a few men email us,” Koshute said.


“One in particular, it just really touched my heart. And he said that he was searching the web for help for his wife on Mother's Day. And I was just so filled with praise and thanksgiving to God for that, for a husband to see that hurt in his wife and to want to find a way to help her,” she added. Men and women typically experience the grief of infertility quite differently, Koshute noted. “For us women, it's so visceral because life is conceived within us and we carry that life. But for a man, it's so different,” she said.

“(Men are) kind of distant from that experience until the child is actually born. And so I think many times men, the grief and the burden that they carry is their wife's. They really carry her sadness and I think feel at a loss because they want to make everything right. They want to fix this, and they want to make her whole. And the mystery of infertility is that it's not that simple. And that's one of the things that makes it so difficult,” she said. Henkel said she experienced her own difficulties in trying to discuss infertility with her husband. Now that they’ve experienced the joy of growing their family through adoption, she said, he is much more open to inviting other men to share their experiences. Henkel said she is hoping that an additional benefit of this retreat being online is that it will facilitate discussions between couples watching the videos together. Both Henkel and Koshute said that while the experience of infertility and loss is painful, and they want to help couples acknowledge and accept that pain, they also want Springs in the Desert to be a positive and supportive experience for couples and women, where they can find hope and redemption even in their suffering. One of the topics they focus on is how all women are called to motherhood in their lives, whether it is spiritual or biological.

“My experience has shown me that my motherhood is really engaged in so many ways that I never considered before,” Koshute said.

“Not just with my godson or with other children in my family, but with women who are older than I who are friends and who might come to me with a difficulty or problem and I can help them,” or by helping family members in need or through charitable works, she added. “That's one of the messages that we try to get across to women and to couples as well, that those kinds of things, what we would maybe refer to as spiritual motherhood, is not illegitimate,” she said.

“It's not second-place. It's a real way of engaging and living out our motherhood. It's also not a replacement for a baby. So it's not as if you go out and volunteer in your community and now you won't have this longing for a child anymore. But we've really found through our own experience and through talking with other women that the more we kind of put ourselves out there and give ourselves to others, the more that we can begin to see that motherhood enacted in us.”

Henkel said she also likes to encourage couples to look at the ways God is calling them to be fruitful in their marriages outside of biological children.

“We really encourage these couples that they are not forgotten, they're not being punished. That God loves them so much and that he has something amazing for them. He's using this to draw them near to him and to allow them to cry out to him and ask for him to guide them, to lead them, to give them his love and show them what fruitfulness he has for them, what place in ministry and mission he has for them.” Henkel and her husband in particular like to share with couples their experience of foster care as one example of where God might be calling them to be fruitful. After a frustrating and expensive experience with some adoption agencies, Henkel and her husband decided to look into giving a home to children through foster care.

“Here is a situation where these children really need families,” she said. “It's hard because there's no guarantee you're going to get to keep this child, so there's a sense of this new greater level of having to learn how to trust God.” “I think that with a couple discerning that fruitfulness, it's also discerning - where is God really calling you? There's so much need in this world. And he wants to use us.”

Couples interested in the Springs in the Desert Mother’s Day weekend retreat can sign up for free online at the Springs in the Desert website. Content will be uploaded and available for anyone who registers, Henkel said, even if they register late. The retreat team will also be hosting a live talk on Sunday, May 10 at 2 p.m. Eastern on the ministry’s Facebook page.

“There's a place for you in Springs of the Desert,” Henkel added. “There's so many women who have reached out to us in Philly. We added several more women to our group, to our team, our official team, women who came to the retreat. One woman had come there and she said she had had a miscarriage, and neither one of us has experienced that. So we said, please join us. We want your voice.”

“We're trying to really bring the voices of many different women to our team so that people will feel there is somebody that is talking they can really relate to. Because there are all of these different situations, but they've got obviously a very similar undercurrent.”

St. Patrick's Day celebrates the patron saint of Ireland known for bringing Christianity to Ireland. Hundreds of years later, OM Ireland brings the same message.

No challenge is too big for God: “His provision gave me goose bumps,” shared Audrey, from Switzerland, about her journey to OM Panama’s Mission Extreme.

Big firms are using political connections to keep their hands on pension fund surpluses, says the head of the Financial Services Board.

Following yesterday´s Supervisory Board meeting and the meeting on 19 March 2020, yesterday´s FBB shareholders’ meeting dealt with the results of the meeting and confirmed its main decisions. The shareholders recognised the business plan approved by th...

In light of the regulations on hygiene and gatherings in connection with the global corona pandemic, a fire safety and evacuation exercise, which was scheduled to take place on 29 April in Terminal T1 and the BER railway station, has been postponed yest...

Farmfoods, a Scottish family business, has served the nation for over 60 years - and has never faltered in selling the finest farm  produce the country has to offer.

Staying home can save you money. You won't be spending your cash on your commute, on eating out or going to the pub whilst in lockdown, but that's not all. There are other ways you can be savvy with your spending and find ways to save.

IT was on board a supply ship which had docked in the port of Marseille that Barney Roberts learned the news that the war was over.

It dates back to1885 and started out as a fund to help military families at home while the Second Expeditionary Force set sail for Egypt. Major James Gildea wrote a letter appealing for money and a fund was set up to provide allowances.