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Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:41 GMT

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:57 GMT

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:39 GMT

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:58 GMT

Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:22 GMT

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Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 140846
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  81.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 

Publicado en 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

986 
WTCA44 KNHC 141149
TASAT4

BOLETÍN
Depresión Tropical Diecinueve Advertencia Intermedia Número 3A
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL192024
700 AM EST jueves 14 de noviembre de 2024

...SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZAN LA VIDA EN
HONDURAS HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA...


RESUMEN DE 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
UBICACIÓN...15.9N 82.2W
ALREDEDOR DE 250 MI...400 KM E DE ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ALREDEDOR DE 90 MI...150 KM AL NE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA
FRONTERA DE NIC/HON
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O 265 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS VIVOS:

Una Vigilancia de Huracán está vigente para...
* Punta Castilla, a la Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua
* Las Islas de la Bahía de Honduras

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Punta Sal a la Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua
* Las Islas de la Bahía de Honduras

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está vigente para...
* Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua a Puerto Cabezas

Una Vigilancia de Huracán significa que son posibles condiciones de
huracán dentro del área de vigilancia. Se suele emitir una
vigilancia 48 horas antes de la primera ocurrencia de vientos con
fuerza de tormenta tropical, condiciones que dificultan o hacen los
preparativos al aire libre al exterior.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones
de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso dentro
de las 36 horas.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área de vigilancia,
generalmente dentro de las 48 horas.

Los intereses en otros lugares de Honduras, Guatemala, Belice y la
Península de Yucatán deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema.

Para información de tormentas específica de su área, monitoree los
productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico nacional.


DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical
Diecinueve se localizó cerca de la latitud de 15.9 Norte, longitud
82.2 Oeste. La depresión se está moviendo hacia el oeste cerca de 15
mph (24 km/h). Este movimiento debe continuar hasta hoy, llevando el
sistema a través del Mar Caribe occidental. Se espera que la
depresión se detenga y serpentee cerca de la costa norte de Honduras
hasta el viernes y hasta el fin de semana.

Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento en las
próximas 48 horas. Se pronostica que la depresión se convertirá en
tormenta tropical más tarde hoy y continuará fortaleciéndose si
permanece sobre el agua.

La presión central mínima estimada es de 1004 mb (29.65 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para la depresión tropical diecinueve se pueden
encontrar en el
Ciclón Tropical Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT4 y el
encabezado de la OMM WTNT44 KNHC y en la web en
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

LLUVIA: Hasta principios de la próxima semana, se esperan cantidades
de lluvia de 10 a 20 pulgadas con totales de tormenta aisladas
alrededor de 30 pulgadas sobre el norte de Honduras.Esta lluvia
provocará inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra que
amenazarán la vida y potencialmente catastróficas, especialmente a
lo largo de la Sierra La Esperanza y cerca de ella.

En otras partes del resto de Honduras, Belice, El Salvador, el este
de Guatemala y el oeste de Nicaragua, se espera que la Depresión
Tropical de Diecinueve produzca de 5 a 10 pulgadas de lluvia con
totales localizados alrededor de 15 pulgadas hasta principios de la
próxima semana. Esto resultará en áreas de inundaciones repentinas,
tal vez significativas, junto con el potencial de deslizamientos de
tierra.

Para obtener una descripción completa del pronóstico de lluvia
asociado a la Depresión Tropical Diecinueve, consulte el Gráfico de
Lluvia Total de Tormentas del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología,
disponible en
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

VIENTO: Son posibles condiciones de huracán dentro del área de
vigilancia para el viernes. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta
tropical en el área de aviso y es posible que se produzca en el área
de vigilancia a partir de hoy.

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles
de agua hasta entre 1 y 3 pies por encima de los niveles de marea
normales a lo largo de la costa inmediata en áreas de vientos
terrestres a lo largo de la costa norte de Honduras. Cerca de la
costa, la marejada estará acompañada de olas grandes y destructivas.


PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa a las 1000 AM EST.

$$
Pronosticador Kelly


*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

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