The post Indo-Pacific lionfish, an invasive species, invade the Atlantic appeared first on Smithsonian Insider.

What plant species has just been discovered but is almost gone? Bidens meyeri–a just discovered flowering plant from the small South Pacific island of Rapa, […]

The post New South Pacific cliff flower is critically endangered appeared first on Smithsonian Insider.

Santa Monica Beach, a very wide, artificially built, and regularly maintained beach. Photographed on September 9, 2019 in Santa Monica, California.; Credit: James Bernal for KPCC

Jacob Margolis

You may not know this, but oftentimes in newsrooms we write obituaries ahead of time so that they're ready to publish when the person passes away. But what if the obit wasn't for a person, but for a place that's been the home of magical memories for generations?

Sea levels could rise by more than three feet by the end of the century, and that's going to mean many things you love about our coast are not going to be around much longer.

As part of our Covering Climate Now collaboration, we thought it was appropriate to start preparing an obit for one of Southern California's most prized areas of Pacific Coast Highway: Santa Monica to Malibu. 

It's slated to run in 80 years or so - the year 2100. 

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

Parts of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region may be vulnerable to outbreaks of the Zika virus, including some of the world's most populous countries and many with limited resources to identify and respond to the mosquito-borne disease, a new study says.

read more

000
WTPZ65 KNHC 210437
TCUEP5

Hurricane Lorena Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1035 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...LORENA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LA VENTANA MEXICO IN SOUTHEASTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Hurricane
Lorena made landfall near La Ventana, Mexico, in the state of Baja
California Sur around 0400 UTC (10 pm MDT) with maximum winds of 80
mph (130 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1035 PM MDT...0435 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 110.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210234
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Priscilla Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...PRISCILLA DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 104.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Priscilla were located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 104.7 West. The remnants are
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Priscilla are expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15
inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan
in southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Priscilla.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 262034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 119.4W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 119.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected by late
afternoon, followed by a turn toward the west tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and the system is expected to dissipate by Monday tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 161752
TCMEP2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E
SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172019
1800 UTC WED OCT 16 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 96.6W AT 16/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 96.6W AT 16/1800Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 96.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 
 000
 FKPZ24 KNHC 210234
 TCAPZ4
 
 REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192019
 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2019
 
 TC ADVISORY
 DTG:                      20191021/0300Z
 TCAC:                     KNHC
 TC:                       PRISCILLA
 NR:                       004
 PSN:                      N2000 W10442
 MOV:                      NNW 09KT
 C:                        1005HPA
 MAX WIND:                 025KT
 FCST PSN +6 HR:           21/0900Z N2036 W10450
 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR:      020KT
 FCST PSN +12 HR:          21/1500Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR:     ///KT
 FCST PSN +18 HR:          21/2100Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR:     ///KT
 FCST PSN +24 HR:          22/0300Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR:     ///KT
 RMK:                      THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
                           THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
                           OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
                           0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
 NXT MSG:                  NO MSG EXP
 
 ..
 
 

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 262034
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020
2100 UTC SUN APR 26 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 119.4W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 119.4W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.1N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.3N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 119.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
FZPN03 KNHC 040942
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE NOV 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED NOV 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU NOV 06.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 18.4N 110.0W 970 MB AT 0900 UTC NOV 04
MOVING N-NE OR 025 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 210 NM SE AND
NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...300 NM SE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA...EXCEPT AS
DESCRIBED WITH LOW PRES NEAR 11N129W IN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
SECTION...FROM 08N TO 25W BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 22.0N 108.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...180
NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA BOUNDED BY 22N104W TO 10N106W TO
10N130W TO 24N130W TO 30N120W TO 22N104W...EXCEPT AS DESCRIBED
OFF W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN SYNOPSIS AND
FORECAST SECTION...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE NEAR 24.1N 107.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE INLAND NEAR
26.0N 107.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13.5N96W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W
AND 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 14.5N95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 14.5N
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY
IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N105W 1008 MB MOVING NW AT 10 KT. WITHIN 180
NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 15N106W 1007 MB. WITHIN 90 NM E
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW PRES NEAR 11N129W 1008 MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. WITHIN 90 NM N
QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N W OF A LINE FROM 21N114W TO
18N114W TO 10N132W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
PRIMARILY IN NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 11N133W 1008 MB. WITHIN 270 NM N
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED
NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 24N W OF 130W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN NE WIND WAVES
AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 10N137W 1008 MB. WITHIN 210 NM N
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL.
ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 21N W OF 129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN NE SWELL.

.WITHIN FROM 09.5N TO 11.5N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 92W AND 95W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED
NE AND SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS MERGED WITH AREA
DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OFF W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0815 UTC TUE NOV 04...
.HURRICANE VANCE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM NE
QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM N QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N77W TO 09N84W TO 07N94W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 11.5N105W 1008 MB...THEN CONTINUES FROM 13N115W TO 19N119W
TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N129W 1008 MB TO 10N132W. ITCZ AXIS FROM
10N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02N TO
7.5N E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 210
NM N AND NE QUADRANTS OF LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N105W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 270 NM E QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR
11N129W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091543
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1503 UTC Sat May 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 07N122W. The
ITCZ extends from there to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted north of 05N east of 90W, from 03N to
11N between 94W and 114W, and from 05N to 07W west of 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from 30N128W through the
Revillagigedo Islands to 14N96W. As a result, winds this morning
off of Mexico and in the Gulf of California were only moderate
breeze or weaker. High pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico
will promote strong N gap winds across the Tehuantepec region
late tonight and continue through Mon night. Peak seas should
reach 10-12 ft due to N wind waves and SW swell. Elsewhere
tranquil conditions are expected across the area through at least
Wed night.

Long period SW swell will impact the waters through Monday. An
altimeter pass showed peak seas of 8 to 9 ft south of Mexico
late last night.

Haze and areas of smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may
reduce visibilities near the coast from the Tehuantepec region to
near Cabo Corrientes.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A flat pressure gradient over the waters is forcing winds of
only fresh breeze or weaker. Winds will remain tranquil during
the next several days.

Large, long period SW swell will continue to impact the offshore
waters of Central America, Ecuador and Colombia through the
weekend before gradually fading. Peak seas observed by an
altimeter pass last night were around 10 ft between the Galapagos
and Ecuador.

Haze and areas of smoke may reduce visibilities near the coasts
of Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala during the next few
days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from 30N128W through the
Revillagigedo Islands to 14N96W. The relatively flat pressure
gradient from the ridge to the ITCZ is causing NE trades of
generally moderate breeze or weaker this morning. Peak seas are 8
to 10 ft east of 120W and south of 15N, primarily due to long-
period SW swell.

A weak cold front will reach our NW corner of 30N140W Sun morning
and progress to 30N132W to 24N140W Mon morning, before
dissipating by Tue morning. SW winds ahead and NW winds behind
the front should remain fresh breeze or weaker. A NW swell of 8
to 10 ft will impact the waters north of 25N west of 130W Sun
night through Tue morning. Elsewhere winds should remain tranquil
through at least Wed night.

Large, long period SW swell will continue to impact the high seas
waters south of 15N and east of 125W through the weekend before
gradually fading. Peak seas observed by an altimeter pass last
night were around 10 ft well west of the Galapagos.

$$
Landsea

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192039
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12
hours. The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is
unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon.
Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are
estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data. The
remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with
its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate
southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent.

The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2
kt. The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it
is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net
distance of 50-100 n mi during that period. A slight westward
adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account
for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies
along the western edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ30 KNHC 010512
TWSEP

Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM PST Sun Dec 1 2019

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical storm (Raymond) and one tropical depression (Twenty
One-E) formed in the basin in November. Although the long-term
average is one tropical storm forms in the basin every second or
third year, this is the second straight November with at least one
named storm forming. In fact, named storms have formed in November
in five of the past six years.

Overall, the 2019 eastern Pacific hurricane season featured near
average activity. There were seventeen named storms, of which seven
became hurricanes and four became major hurricanes - category 3 or
higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
the long-term averages of fifteen named storms, eight hurricanes,
and four major hurricanes. There were also two tropical depressions
that did not reach tropical storm strength. In terms of Accumulated
Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of
tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2019 was
a little below the long-term mean.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at:
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2019&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
H Alvin 25-29 Jun 75*
MH Barbara 30 Jun- 5 Jul 155*
TS Cosme 6- 7 Jul 50*
TD Four-E 12-13 Jul 35*
TS Dalila 22-25 Jul 45*
MH Erick 27 Jul- 4 Aug 130*/**
H Flossie 28 Jul- 5 Aug 80
TS Gil 3- 4 Aug 40
TS Henriette 12-13 Aug 45*
TS Ivo 21-25 Aug 70*
MH Juliette 1- 7 Sep 125
TS Akoni 4- 6 Sep 45**/***
MH Kiko 12-24 Sep 130
H Lorena 17-22 Sep 85*
TS Mario 17-23 Sep 65
TS Narda Sep 29- 1 Oct 50
TS Octave 18-19 Oct 45
TS Priscilla 20-21 Oct 40
TS Raymond 15-17 Nov 55
TD Twenty-One-E 16-18 Nov 35
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which NHC's post-storm analysis is complete.
** Maximum winds occurred in the central Pacific basin.
*** First became a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit

000
WTPZ63 KNHC 150036 CCA
TCUEP3

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Corrected location coordinates

...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

Recent satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Hurricane
Kiko has rapidly strengthened since the last advisory. The maximum
sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The higher
intensity will be reflected in the next forecast advisory, which
will be issued before 800 PM PDT.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 119.7W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 210233
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019
0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 104.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PRISCILLA.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 192037
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 125.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 161752
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...DISTURBANCE NOW UNLIKELY TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 96.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM N OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the coast of southeastern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.6 North, longitude 96.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. On this track, the disturbance is
expected to move farther inland over southeastern Mexico during the
next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
While the chances that the disturbance will become a tropical
cyclone are decreasing, there is still a small chance that a
tropical depression could develop if the center can re-form along
the coast later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico
from Chiapas to Jalisco, and 2 to 4 inches over southern Guatemala.
Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Mexico.
Rainfall in both Guatemala and Mexico could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur along
portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Please refer to forecasts and warnings from
the Meteorological Service of Mexico for more information on the
ongoing rainfall threat.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 192038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...OCTAVE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 125.7W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave
was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 125.7 West. Octave
is moving toward the east-northeast near 2 mph. A slow and erratic
motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
WTPZ62 KNHC 021230
TCUEP2

Hurricane Barbara Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
230 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

...BARBARA STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY...

Satellite images show that Barbara has continued to strengthen
faster than previously indicated and the maximum winds have reached
130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This increase in intensity
will be reflected in the next advisory package.


SUMMARY OF 230 AM HST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 121.6W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 291316
TCUEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
915 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA NOW NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery and data from coastal stations in Mexico indicate
that the center of Narda is northwest of the previous advisory
position and it is now located close to the coast of Mexico near
Zihuatanejo. The Mexican Navy station at Puerto Vicente recently
reported sustained winds of 38 mph (62 km/h) and a wind gust of 52
mph (84 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 915 AM CDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 101.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
FZPN04 KNHC 041015
HSFEP3

CCODE/1:31:16:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XVI
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1115 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM 03.4S TO 18.5S E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE NOV 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED NOV 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU NOV 06.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ENTIRE AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171432
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

Raymond has degenerated into a remnant low with 25-kt winds.
Satellite images indicate that the circulation is elongated and that
the thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of minimum
pressure due to very strong wind shear. In addition, observations
from the Mexican Navy automatic station at Isla Socorro which is
located near Raymond indicate that winds are between 15 and 20 kt.

The low is moving northward around 14 kt, but this motion is
uncertain since the circulation is elongated and poorly defined.
Raymond's remnants are expected to move northward and then
north-northwestward and eventually become absorbed by a large
developing trough west of the Baja California peninsula in about 24
to 36 hours.

The combination of the remnants of Raymond and the developing
trough west of the peninsula will bring heavy rains into southern
portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

This is the last NHC advisory on Raymond. For additional information
about the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

 
 000
 FKPZ22 KNHC 161752
 TCAPZ2
 
 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E
 SPECIAL ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172019
 1800 UTC WED OCT 16 2019
 
 TC ADVISORY
 DTG:                      20191016/1800Z
 TCAC:                     KNHC
 TC:                       SEVENTEEN-E
 NR:                       004
 PSN:                      N1636 W09636
 MOV:                      NW 12KT
 C:                        1007HPA
 MAX WIND:                 025KT
 FCST PSN +6 HR:           16/2100Z N1657 W09706
 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR:      025KT
 FCST PSN +12 HR:          17/0300Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR:     ///KT
 FCST PSN +18 HR:          17/0900Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR:     ///KT
 FCST PSN +24 HR:          17/1500Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR:     ///KT
 RMK:                      THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
                           THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
                           OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
                           0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
 NXT MSG:                  NO MSG EXP
 
 ..
 
 

807
WTPZ44 KNHC 210234
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Priscilla Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

The rugged terrain of Mexico has taken a toll on Priscilla. Surface
observations indicate that the system no longer has a closed
surface circulation, and therefore this is the last advisory
issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

Even though the surface circulation has dissipated, there is
still a fair amount of deep convection associated with the
remnant trough over portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico. Since the surface trough is expected to linger for another
couple of days over southwestern Mexico, there remains a significant
threat of heavy rains and flash flooding over that region.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.0N 104.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

055
WTPZ25 KNHC 171432
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019
1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 111.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

The Central North Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

The Eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.

 
 000
 FOPZ11 KNHC 262034
 PWSEP1
                                                                     
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6     
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012020               
 2100 UTC SUN APR 26 2020                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 
 LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
 WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
 

056
WTPZ35 KNHC 171432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

...RAYMOND DEGENERATED INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 111.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Raymond was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 111.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26
km/h) and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight or
Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond's remnants are expected to
move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to dissipate late Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on this
system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161752
TCDEP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance has become less organized, and there is no sign of a
new center forming offshore at this time. So, while there is still
a small chance that the system could form into a tropical cyclone,
the system no longer poses a threat of bringing tropical-storm
conditions to the coast of Mexico, and this special advisory is
being issued to discontinue the tropical storm watch for the coast
of Mexico. The disturbance should continue to interact with the
mountains of southern Mexico during the next day or so, which should
most likely cause its dissipation after 12 h.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system unless the threat of tropical storm conditions
increases along the coast of Mexico. However, the heavy rainfall
threat, as well as the potential for flash flooding and mudslides
in southern Mexico, should continue for the next day or two.
Please refer to forecasts and warnings from the Meteorological
Service of Mexico for more information on this ongoing threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1800Z 16.6N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

 
 000
 FKPZ21 KNHC 262034
 TCAPZ1
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-E ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012020
 2100 UTC SUN APR 26 2020
 
 TC ADVISORY
 DTG:                      20200426/2100Z
 TCAC:                     KNHC
 TC:                       ONE-E
 NR:                       006
 PSN:                      N1612 W11924
 MOV:                      NW 08KT
 C:                        1007HPA
 MAX WIND:                 025KT
 FCST PSN +6 HR:           27/0300Z N1632 W12024
 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR:      020KT
 FCST PSN +12 HR:          27/0900Z N1648 W12124
 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR:     020KT
 FCST PSN +18 HR:          27/1500Z N1700 W12224
 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR:     020KT
 FCST PSN +24 HR:          27/2100Z N1709 W12327
 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR:     020KT
 RMK:                      THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
                           THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
                           OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
                           0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
 NXT MSG:                  NO MSG EXP
 
 ..
 
 

 
 000
 FOPZ15 KNHC 171432
 PWSEP5
                                                                     
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11   
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019               
 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED    
 NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
 SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
 

 
 000
 FKPZ25 KNHC 171432
 TCAPZ5
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019
 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019
 
 TC ADVISORY
 DTG:                      20191117/1500Z
 TCAC:                     KNHC
 TC:                       RAYMOND
 NR:                       011
 PSN:                      N1906 W11106
 MOV:                      N 14KT
 C:                        1001HPA
 MAX WIND:                 025KT
 FCST PSN +6 HR:           17/2100Z N2022 W11102
 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR:      020KT
 FCST PSN +12 HR:          18/0300Z N2137 W11115
 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR:     020KT
 FCST PSN +18 HR:          18/0900Z N2252 W11145
 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR:     020KT
 FCST PSN +24 HR:          18/1500Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR:     ///KT
 RMK:                      THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
                           THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
                           OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
                           0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
 NXT MSG:                  NO MSG EXP
 
 ..
 
 

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 262035
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020

The cyclone has lacked significant organized deep convection for at
least 10 hours, and the system is moving into increasingly more
stable air and over sub-25C deg C SSTs. Therefore, the depression
has been downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low. The initial
intensity is 25 kt is based on several 23-25 kt wind vectors located
n-e of the low-level center in a 1718 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. Although
the system may still produce some sporadic convection late tonight
during the convective maximum period, dry and stable air along with
strong westerly shear will likely prevent any appreciable convection
from persisting over the next day or so. This should cause the
remnant low to weaken and then open up into a trough in 36-48 hours.

The initial motion remains 305/08 kt. A substantial low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to gradually
nudge the shallow low toward the west-northwest later this
afternoon, followed by a westward motion tonight, with that motion
continuing until the system dissipates Monday night. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system. For additional information on the remnant low, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.2N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1800Z 17.1N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 17.3N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 
 000
 FOPZ12 KNHC 161752
 PWSEP2
                                                                     
 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E                              
 SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4                         
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172019               
 1800 UTC WED OCT 16 2019                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E WAS   
 LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
 SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
 

 
 000
 FKPZ23 KNHC 192039
 TCAPZ3
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019
 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
 
 TC ADVISORY
 DTG:                      20191019/2100Z
 TCAC:                     KNHC
 TC:                       OCTAVE
 NR:                       009
 PSN:                      N1136 W12542
 MOV:                      ENE 02KT
 C:                        1009HPA
 MAX WIND:                 030KT
 FCST PSN +6 HR:           20/0300Z N1127 W12542
 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR:      025KT
 FCST PSN +12 HR:          20/0900Z N1119 W12542
 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR:     025KT
 FCST PSN +18 HR:          20/1500Z N1110 W12542
 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR:     025KT
 FCST PSN +24 HR:          20/2100Z N1101 W12542
 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR:     025KT
 RMK:                      THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
                           THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
                           OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
                           0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
 NXT MSG:                  NO MSG EXP
 
 ..
 
 

 
 000
 FOPZ13 KNHC 192039
 PWSEP3
                                                                     
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9    
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019               
 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
 WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 10N 125W       34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   1(16)   2(18)
  
 15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
  
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BERG                                                     
 

 
 000
 FOPZ14 KNHC 210234
 PWSEP4
                                                                     
 REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192019               
 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2019                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0  
 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25   
 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                                             
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
 

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