Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:22 GMT

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Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been 
improving.  The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt.  Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates 
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite 
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression.  This is 
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which 
shows a well-defined circulation.  The intensity is set to 30 kt 
based on the Dvorak estimates.
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of 
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later 
today.  A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression 
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until 
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, 
and possibly inland.  After that, the ridge is expected to break 
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak 
steering currents late Friday through the weekend.  This expected 
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the 
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions 
of Central America.  By early next week, ridging should become 
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which 
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the 
Yucatan Peninsula.  Very little change was made to the first 3 days 
of the track forecast.  Beyond day 3, there has been a notable 
westward shift in the track guidance.  The NHC forecast is a bit 
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as 
the bulk of the latest model guidance.
 
Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during 
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low 
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. 
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much 
land interaction with Honduras occurs.  The majority of the models 
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or 
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, 
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model 
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but 
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this 
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h.  The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance 
envelope beyond 36 h.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for
portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 15.9N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 140846
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  81.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 14 the center of Nineteen was located near 15.9, -82.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Pista de cinco días de la incertidumbre publicado en Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:03 GMT


Probabilidades de la velocidad del viento publicado en Thu, 14 Nov 2024 09:22:46 GMT

Publicado en 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

313 
WTNT54 KNHC 140849
TDSAT4

Depresión Tropical Diecinueve Discusión Número 3
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL192024
400 AM EST jueves 14 de noviembre de 2024

La presentación del sistema por satélite ha ido mejorando
gradualmente. Las últimas estimaciones de intensidad subjetiva de
TAFB y SAB son T-2.0/30 kt. Basado en las estimaciones subjetivas de
Dvorak y la mejora en la estructura convectiva observada en las
imágenes de satélite, el sistema se actualiza a una depresión
tropical. Esto se ve respaldado por los datos del scatterómetro del
Indian Oceansat, que muestra una circulación bien definida. La
intensidad se establece en 30 kt según las estimaciones de Dvorak.

La Depresión Tropical Diecinueve se ha estado moviendo más rápido,
justo al sur del oeste, o 265/14 kt, aunque hoy debería comenzar a
disminuir la velocidad. Una cresta de nivel medio centrada al norte
de la depresión sobre el Estrecho de Florida debe mantenerla en
dirección oeste hasta el viernes, tomando el sistema cerca de la
costa norte del este de Honduras y, posiblemente, tierra adentro.
Después de eso, se espera que la cresta se rompa, y los modelos
coinciden en que el ciclón serpenteará en corrientes débiles hasta
el viernes hasta el fin de semana. Se espera que este movimiento
lento provoque que el sistema produzca fuertes lluvias en la misma
región, lo que probablemente provocará inundaciones que amenazan la
vida en zonas de América Central. Para principios de la próxima
semana, las perforaciones de crestas deben restablecerse sobre
Florida y el este del Golfo de México, lo que debería provocar que
el sistema se mueva hacia el noroeste a través de Belice y la
Península de Yucatán. Se hicieron muy pocos cambios en los primeros
3 días del pronóstico de trayectoria. Más allá del día 3, se ha
producido un notable cambio hacia el oeste en la guía de
trayectoria. El pronóstico del CNH está un poco al oeste del
pronóstico anterior más allá del día 3, pero no tan al oeste como la
mayor parte de la guía del último modelo.

Las condiciones ambientales son propicias para la intensificación
durante el próximo día o dos, mientras el sistema permanece sobre el
agua, con baja cizalladura vertical del viento y humedades
relativamente altas de nivel medio. Sin embargo, existe una
incertidumbre significativa en cuanto a la interacción entre tierras
y Honduras. La mayoría de los modelos muestran que el centro se
mueve apenas tierra adentro sobre Honduras, o lo estacionan justo en
la costa, entre las horas 48 y 72. Sin embargo, si el sistema se
mantiene en alta mar, como lo demuestra la última solución modelo
HWRF, podría aprovechar las condiciones atmosféricas y oceánicas
propicias y continuar fortaleciéndose. El último pronóstico de
intensidad del CNH es similar al anterior hasta las 36 h, pero luego
es de unos 5 kt más bajo que el pronóstico anterior, ya que este
pronóstico muestra una interacción más profunda con la tierra más
allá de las 36 h. El último pronóstico de intensidad del CNH está
por encima del límite máximo del envolvente de orientación más allá
de las 36 h.

MENSAJES CLAVE:

1. Hasta principios de la próxima semana, las fuertes lluvias
causarán inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra que
amenazan la vida en porciones de América Central, particularmente
Honduras, Belice, El Salvador, el este de Guatemala y el oeste de
Nicaragua.

2. Se pronostica que la perturbación estará cerca de la fuerza de
huracán cuando se mueva cerca de la costa este de Honduras el
viernes y el sábado. Las vigilancias de huracán y los avisos de
tormenta tropical están vigentes en porciones de esa área.

3. Se pronostica que el sistema se acercará a Belice y a la
península de Yucatán en México con la fuerza de huracán o cerca de
ella a principios de la próxima semana, donde existe el riesgo de
marejadas ciclónicas peligrosas y vientos destructivos. Los
residentes de estas áreas deben monitorear las últimas
actualizaciones del pronóstico y asegurarse de que tienen su plan de
huracanes establecido.

4. Es demasiado pronto para determinar qué impactos podría causar el
sistema en porciones del este del Golfo de México, incluidos
Florida, los Cayos de Florida y Cuba durante la mitad de la próxima
semana. Los residentes de estas áreas deben monitorear regularmente
las actualizaciones del pronóstico.


POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
 12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
 24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
 36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...CERCA DE LA COSTA
 60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...CERCA DE LA COSTA
 72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
 96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...SOBRE EL AGUA
120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Pronosticador Hagen

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

Publicado en 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

986 
WTCA44 KNHC 141149
TASAT4

BOLETÍN
Depresión Tropical Diecinueve Advertencia Intermedia Número 3A
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL192024
700 AM EST jueves 14 de noviembre de 2024

...SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZAN LA VIDA EN
HONDURAS HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA...


RESUMEN DE 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
UBICACIÓN...15.9N 82.2W
ALREDEDOR DE 250 MI...400 KM E DE ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ALREDEDOR DE 90 MI...150 KM AL NE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA
FRONTERA DE NIC/HON
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O 265 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS VIVOS:

Una Vigilancia de Huracán está vigente para...
* Punta Castilla, a la Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua
* Las Islas de la Bahía de Honduras

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Punta Sal a la Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua
* Las Islas de la Bahía de Honduras

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está vigente para...
* Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua a Puerto Cabezas

Una Vigilancia de Huracán significa que son posibles condiciones de
huracán dentro del área de vigilancia. Se suele emitir una
vigilancia 48 horas antes de la primera ocurrencia de vientos con
fuerza de tormenta tropical, condiciones que dificultan o hacen los
preparativos al aire libre al exterior.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones
de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso dentro
de las 36 horas.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área de vigilancia,
generalmente dentro de las 48 horas.

Los intereses en otros lugares de Honduras, Guatemala, Belice y la
Península de Yucatán deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema.

Para información de tormentas específica de su área, monitoree los
productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico nacional.


DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical
Diecinueve se localizó cerca de la latitud de 15.9 Norte, longitud
82.2 Oeste. La depresión se está moviendo hacia el oeste cerca de 15
mph (24 km/h). Este movimiento debe continuar hasta hoy, llevando el
sistema a través del Mar Caribe occidental. Se espera que la
depresión se detenga y serpentee cerca de la costa norte de Honduras
hasta el viernes y hasta el fin de semana.

Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento en las
próximas 48 horas. Se pronostica que la depresión se convertirá en
tormenta tropical más tarde hoy y continuará fortaleciéndose si
permanece sobre el agua.

La presión central mínima estimada es de 1004 mb (29.65 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para la depresión tropical diecinueve se pueden
encontrar en el
Ciclón Tropical Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT4 y el
encabezado de la OMM WTNT44 KNHC y en la web en
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

LLUVIA: Hasta principios de la próxima semana, se esperan cantidades
de lluvia de 10 a 20 pulgadas con totales de tormenta aisladas
alrededor de 30 pulgadas sobre el norte de Honduras.Esta lluvia
provocará inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra que
amenazarán la vida y potencialmente catastróficas, especialmente a
lo largo de la Sierra La Esperanza y cerca de ella.

En otras partes del resto de Honduras, Belice, El Salvador, el este
de Guatemala y el oeste de Nicaragua, se espera que la Depresión
Tropical de Diecinueve produzca de 5 a 10 pulgadas de lluvia con
totales localizados alrededor de 15 pulgadas hasta principios de la
próxima semana. Esto resultará en áreas de inundaciones repentinas,
tal vez significativas, junto con el potencial de deslizamientos de
tierra.

Para obtener una descripción completa del pronóstico de lluvia
asociado a la Depresión Tropical Diecinueve, consulte el Gráfico de
Lluvia Total de Tormentas del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología,
disponible en
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

VIENTO: Son posibles condiciones de huracán dentro del área de
vigilancia para el viernes. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta
tropical en el área de aviso y es posible que se produzca en el área
de vigilancia a partir de hoy.

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles
de agua hasta entre 1 y 3 pies por encima de los niveles de marea
normales a lo largo de la costa inmediata en áreas de vientos
terrestres a lo largo de la costa norte de Honduras. Cerca de la
costa, la marejada estará acompañada de olas grandes y destructivas.


PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa a las 1000 AM EST.

$$
Pronosticador Kelly


*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

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