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Naughty Day After "Faux Paella"

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Tue, 03 Nov 2015 13:32:00 +1100

Nicky Riemer from Union Dining is one of 20 of Victoria's top chefs who will unite to raise funds for vulnerable children at Gastronomique on November 25. The gala food and wine charity evening will support Anglicare Victoria. Now in its 12th year, Gastronomique includes signature dishes, fine wine and entertainment. www.gastronomique.org.au


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Bbq barramundi, Jamon, minted peas, Dijon mustard dressing & Danish fetta

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Mon, 23 Nov 2015 12:16:00 +1000

Delicious fish dish for a summer night.


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SLOW-COOKED QUINCES WITH MANDARIN AND ROSEWATER

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Thu, 17 Mar 2016 10:41:00 +1000

Once you've peeled and cored the quinces there's really little work to do to make this gorgeous dessert. They just bubble away happily for a few hours while the sugar and long slow cooking cast their spell, transforming the quinces' hard, ivory-coloured flesh until it's meltingly soft and an incredible deep-rose colour.


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Prosciutto and cheese croquettes

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Thu, 30 Jun 2016 10:41:00 +0800

75g butter 75g (1/2 cup) plain flour 500ml (2 cups) milk 75g finely grated parmesan 1 small red onion, finely diced 200g prosciutto, finely chopped 2 tablespoons chopped fresh parsley 3 eggs, lightly whisked 1 cup plain flour 270g (3 cups) dried breadcrumbs Vegetable oil, to deep-fry


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David wins record sixth squash world title

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Mon, 07 Nov 2011 14:07:00 +1100

Malaysian squash superstar Nicol David has won a record sixth women's World Open title, overtaking Australia's Sarah Fitz-Gerald.


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Risk Factors for First and Subsequent CVD Events in Type 1 Diabetes: The DCCT/EDIC Study

By care.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2020-03-20T11:50:34-07:00

OBJECTIVE

The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and its observational follow-up Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) demonstrated the dominant role of glycemia, second only to age, as a risk factor for a first cardiovascular event in type 1 diabetes (T1D). We now investigate the association between established risk factors and the total cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden, including subsequent (i.e., recurrent) events.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

CVD events in the 1,441 DCCT/EDIC participants were analyzed separately by type (CVD death, acute myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, silent MI, angina, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty/coronary artery bypass graft [PTCA/CABG], and congestive heart failure [CHF]) or as composite outcomes (CVD or major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE]). Proportional rate models and conditional models assessed associations between risk factors and CVD outcomes.

 RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 29 years, 239 participants had 421 CVD events, and 120 individuals had 149 MACE. Age was the strongest risk factor for acute MI, silent MI, stroke, and PTCA/CABG, while glycemia was the strongest risk factor for CVD death, CHF, and angina, second strongest for acute MI and PTCA/CABG, third strongest for stroke, and not associated with silent MI. HbA1c was the strongest modifiable risk factor for a first CVD event (CVD: HR 1.38 [95% CI 1.21, 1.56] per 1% higher HbA1c; MACE: HR 1.54 [1.30, 1.82]) and also for subsequent CVD events (CVD: incidence ratio [IR] 1.28 [95% CI 1.09, 1.51]; MACE: IR 1.89 [1.36, 2.61]).

 CONCLUSIONS

Intensive glycemic management is recommended to lower the risk of initial CVD events in T1D. After a first event, optimal glycemic control may reduce the risk of recurrent CVD events and should be maintained.


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The Death of the "1800-Calorie ADA Diet"

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2002-04-01

Irl B. Hirsch
Apr 1, 2002; 20:
Editorials


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Heroic Consciousness: What it is and How to Acquire it

By blog.richmond.edu
Published On :: Thu, 23 Jan 2020 13:03:26 +0000

By Scott T. Allison This blog post is excerpted from: Allison, S. T. (2019). Heroic consciousness. Heroism Science, 4, 1-43.   The philosopher Yuval Noah Harari (2018) recently described consciousness as “the greatest mystery in the universe”. What exactly is heroic consciousness? It is a way of seeing the world, perceiving reality, and making decisions … Continue reading Heroic Consciousness: What it is and How to Acquire it →


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Squirrels and Stock Brokers, Or: Innovation Dilemmas, Robustness and Probability

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Sun, 09 Oct 2011 11:51:00 +0000

Decisions are made in order to achieve desirable outcomes. An innovation dilemma arises when a seemingly more attractive option is also more uncertain than other options. In this essay we explore the relation between the innovation dilemma and the robustness of a decision, and the relation between robustness and probability. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes despite adverse surprises. A robust decision may differ from the seemingly best option. Furthermore, robust decisions are not based on knowledge of probabilities, but can still be the most likely to succeed.

Squirrels, Stock-Brokers and Their Dilemmas




Decision problems.
Imagine a squirrel nibbling acorns under an oak tree. They're pretty good acorns, though a bit dry. The good ones have already been taken. Over in the distance is a large stand of fine oaks. The acorns there are probably better. But then, other squirrels can also see those trees, and predators can too. The squirrel doesn't need to get fat, but a critical caloric intake is necessary before moving on to other activities. How long should the squirrel forage at this patch before moving to the more promising patch, if at all?

Imagine a hedge fund manager investing in South African diamonds, Australian Uranium, Norwegian Kroners and Singapore semi-conductors. The returns have been steady and good, but not very exciting. A new hi-tech start-up venture has just turned up. It looks promising, has solid backing, and could be very interesting. The manager doesn't need to earn boundless returns, but it is necessary to earn at least a tad more than the competition (who are also prowling around). How long should the manager hold the current portfolio before changing at least some of its components?

These are decision problems, and like many other examples, they share three traits: critical needs must be met; the current situation may or may not be adequate; other alternatives look much better but are much more uncertain. To change, or not to change? What strategy to use in making a decision? What choice is the best bet? Betting is a surprising concept, as we have seen before; can we bet without knowing probabilities?

Solution strategies.
The decision is easy in either of two extreme situations, and their analysis will reveal general conclusions.

One extreme is that the status quo is clearly insufficient. For the squirrel this means that these crinkled rotten acorns won't fill anybody's belly even if one nibbled here all day long. Survival requires trying the other patch regardless of the fact that there may be many other squirrels already there and predators just waiting to swoop down. Similarly, for the hedge fund manager, if other funds are making fantastic profits, then something has to change or the competition will attract all the business.

The other extreme is that the status quo is just fine, thank you. For the squirrel, just a little more nibbling and these acorns will get us through the night, so why run over to unfamiliar oak trees? For the hedge fund manager, profits are better than those of any credible competitor, so uncertain change is not called for.

From these two extremes we draw an important general conclusion: the right answer depends on what you need. To change, or not to change, depends on what is critical for survival. There is no universal answer, like, "Always try to improve" or "If it's working, don't fix it". This is a very general property of decisions under uncertainty, and we will call it preference reversal. The agent's preference between alternatives depends on what the agent needs in order to "survive".

The decision strategy that we have described is attuned to the needs of the agent. The strategy attempts to satisfy the agent's critical requirements. If the status quo would reliably do that, then stay put; if not, then move. Following the work of Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon, we will call this a satisficing decision strategy: one which satisfies a critical requirement.

"Prediction is always difficult, especially of the future." - Robert Storm Petersen

Now let's consider a different decision strategy that squirrels and hedge fund managers might be tempted to use. The agent has obtained information about the two alternatives by signals from the environment. (The squirrel sees grand verdant oaks in the distance, the fund manager hears of a new start up.) Given this information, a prediction can be made (though the squirrel may make this prediction based on instincts and without being aware of making it). Given the best available information, the agent predicts which alternative would yield the better outcome. Using this prediction, the decision strategy is to choose the alternative whose predicted outcome is best. We will call this decision strategy best-model optimization. Note that this decision strategy yields a single universal answer to the question facing the agent. This strategy uses the best information to find the choice that - if that information is correct - will yield the best outcome. Best-model optimization (usually) gives a single "best" decision, unlike the satisficing strategy that returns different answers depending on the agent's needs.

There is an attractive logic - and even perhaps a moral imperative - to use the best information to make the best choice. One should always try to do one's best. But the catch in the argument for best-model optimization is that the best information may actually be grievously wrong. Those fine oak trees might be swarming with insects who've devoured the acorns. Best-model optimization ignores the agent's central dilemma: stay with the relatively well known but modest alternative, or go for the more promising but more uncertain alternative.

"Tsk, tsk, tsk" says our hedge fund manager. "My information already accounts for the uncertainty. I have used a probabilistic asset pricing model to predict the likelihood that my profits will beat the competition for each of the two alternatives."

Probabilistic asset pricing models are good to have. And the squirrel similarly has evolved instincts that reflect likelihoods. But a best-probabilistic-model optimization is simply one type of best-model optimization, and is subject to the same vulnerability to error. The world is full of surprises. The probability functions that are used are quite likely wrong, especially in predicting the rare events that the manager is most concerned to avoid.

Robustness and Probability

Now we come to the truly amazing part of the story. The satisficing strategy does not use any probabilistic information. Nonetheless, in many situations, the satisficing strategy is actually a better bet (or at least not a worse bet), probabilistically speaking, than any other strategy, including best-probabilistic-model optimization. We have no probabilistic information in these situations, but we can still maximize the probability of success (though we won't know the value of this maximum).

When the satisficing decision strategy is the best bet, this is, in part, because it is more robust to uncertainty than another other strategy. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes even if adverse surprises occur. In many important situations (though not invariably), more robustness to uncertainty is equivalent to being more likely to succeed or survive. When this is true we say that robustness is a proxy for probability.

A thorough analysis of the proxy property is rather technical. However, we can understand the gist of the idea by considering a simple special case.

Let's continue with the squirrel and hedge fund examples. Suppose we are completely confident about the future value (in calories or dollars) of not making any change (staying put). In contrast, the future value of moving is apparently better though uncertain. If staying put would satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of survival if we do not change. Staying put is completely robust to surprises so the probability of success equals 1 if we stay put, regardless of what happens with the other option. Likewise, if staying put would not satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of failure if we do not change; the probability of success equals 0 if we stay, and moving cannot be worse. Regardless of what probability distribution describes future outcomes if we move, we can always choose the option whose likelihood of success is greater (or at least not worse). This is because staying put is either sure to succeed or sure to fail, and we know which.

This argument can be extended to the more realistic case where the outcome of staying put is uncertain and the outcome of moving, while seemingly better than staying, is much more uncertain. The agent can know which option is more robust to uncertainty, without having to know probability distributions. This implies, in many situations, that the agent can choose the option that is a better bet for survival.

Wrapping Up

The skillful decision maker not only knows a lot, but is also able to deal with conflicting information. We have discussed the innovation dilemma: When choosing between two alternatives, the seemingly better one is also more uncertain.

Animals, people, organizations and societies have developed mechanisms for dealing with the innovation dilemma. The response hinges on tuning the decision to the agent's needs, and robustifying the choice against uncertainty. This choice may or may not coincide with the putative best choice. But what seems best depends on the available - though uncertain - information.

The commendable tendency to do one's best - and to demand the same of others - can lead to putatively optimal decisions that may be more vulnerable to surprise than other decisions that would have been satisfactory. In contrast, the strategy of robustly satisfying critical needs can be a better bet for survival. Consider the design of critical infrastructure: flood protection, nuclear power, communication networks, and so on. The design of such systems is based on vast knowledge and understanding, but also confronts bewildering uncertainties and endless surprises. We must continue to improve our knowledge and understanding, while also improving our ability to manage the uncertainties resulting from the expanding horizon of our efforts. We must identify the critical goals and seek responses that are immune to surprise. 


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Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Fri, 01 May 2020 14:43:00 +0000

A number of articles now in press at the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences will be of interest to AHP readers. Full details below. “Uncovering the metaphysics of psychological warfare: The social science behind the Psychological Strategy Board’s operations planning, 1951–1953,” Gabrielle Kemmis. Abstract: In April 1951 president Harry S. Truman established … Continue reading Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More →


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The Popular Foods That Lower Your IQ

By www.spring.org.uk
Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 15:00:18 +0000

Two-thirds of children report eating this food weekly.

→ Support PsyBlog for just $5 per month. Enables access to articles marked (M) and removes ads.

→ Explore PsyBlog's ebooks, all written by Dr Jeremy Dean:


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The Top 10 Most-Read Questions and Answers on Sex and Psychology

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Fri, 17 Apr 2020 14:00:00 +0000

What do people want to know about sex? Here's are the ten most read question-and-answer features of all time on the blog. These questions (all submitted by readers of Sex and Psychology) span a wide range of topics. Many of them fall under the category of “What’s normal when it comes to sex?” However, others reflect curiosity about diverse sexual practices, as well as interest in better understanding what's safe when it comes to sex.


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The dangers of a noisy ocean -- and how we can quiet it down | Nicola Jones

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 11 Mar 2020 15:03:00 +0000

The ocean is a naturally noisy place full of singing whales, grunting fish, snapping shrimp, cracking ice, wind and rain. But human-made sounds -- from ship engines to oil drilling -- have become an acute threat to marine life, says science journalist Nicola Jones. Watch (and listen) as she discusses the strange things that happen to underwater creatures in the face of ocean noise pollution -- and shares straightforward ways we can dial down the sound to see almost immediate impacts.


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The weird history of the "sex chromosomes" | Molly Webster

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 23 Mar 2020 14:48:37 +0000

The common thinking on biological sex goes like this: females have two X chromosomes in their cells, while males have one X and one Y. In this myth-busting talk, science writer and podcaster Molly Webster shows why the so-called "sex chromosomes" are more complicated than this simple definition -- and reveals why we should think about them differently.


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2 questions to uncover your passion -- and turn it into a career | Noeline Kirabo

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Thu, 26 Mar 2020 15:02:29 +0000

What's your passion? Social entrepreneur Noeline Kirabo reflects on her work helping out-of-school young people in Uganda turn their passions into profitable businesses -- and shares the two questions you can ask yourself to begin doing the same.


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The quest for the coronavirus vaccine | Seth Berkley

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Fri, 27 Mar 2020 16:36:31 +0000

When will the coronavirus vaccine be ready? Epidemiologist Seth Berkley (head of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance) takes us inside the effort to create a vaccine for COVID-19. With clarity and urgency, he explains what makes it so challenging to develop, when we can expect it to be rolled out at scale and why we'll need global collaboration to get it done. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and current affairs curator Whitney Pennington Rodgers. Recorded March 26, 2020)


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The injustice of "policing for profit" -- and how to end it | Dick M. Carpenter II

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 28 Apr 2020 15:12:24 +0000

Many countries have an active, centuries-old law that allows government agencies to take your things -- your house, your car, your business -- without ever convicting you of a crime. Law researcher Dick M. Carpenter II exposes how this practice of civil forfeiture threatens your rights and creates a huge monetary incentive for law enforcement to pocket your possessions -- and he lays out a path to end "policing for profit" once and for all.


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A new way to "grow" islands and coastlines | Skylar Tibbits

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 15:06:46 +0000

What if we could harness the ocean's movement to protect coastal communities from rising sea levels? Designer and TED Fellow Skylar Tibbits shows how his lab is creating a dynamic, adaptable system of underwater structures that uses energy from ocean waves to accumulate sand and restore eroding shorelines -- working with the forces of nature to build rather than destroy.


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Talking Across Divides And Quashing Conspiracy Theories: The Week’s Best Psychology Links

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Fri, 24 Apr 2020 07:53:08 +0000

Our weekly round-up of the best psychology coverage from elsewhere on the web


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Massachusetts Ranks Second on Quality Counts Annual Report Card

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 03 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The state, which earned a B-plus, led the nation in K-12 achievement rankings and outperformed other states in several key academic indicators, but fell short on funding equity.


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Massachusetts Moves Equity to Forefront of Aspiring Superintendent Program

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Fri, 01 Nov 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The state's "Influence 100" project includes a leadership development program that will give aspiring district leaders a hands-on opportunity to work through an equity issue in their home districts.


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Coronavirus Squeezes Supply of Chromebooks, iPads, and Other Digital Learning Devices

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 01 Apr 2020 00:00:00 +0000

School districts are competing against each other for purchases of digital devices as remote learning expands to schools across the country.


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Despite Court Ruling, N.C.'s State Chief, Board Still Quibble Over Who's in Charge

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 11 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0000

The state's elected superintendent and the governor-appointed state board have been in a legal dispute since 2016 over who should oversee the many tasks of the education department.


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Ohio District's Armed-Employee Program Struck Down Over Training Requirement

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 01 Apr 2020 00:00:00 +0000

An Ohio appellate court struck down a district's policy allowing staff members to carry concealed weapons in school with 24 hours of "active shooter/killer training."


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Oklahoma Ranks 49th on Quality Counts Annual Report Card

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 03 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The state, which earned a D-plus, has struggled with school finance issues and endured teacher strikes and battles over pay, but also earned B-plus for funding equity.


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Questions surround governor's proposal to open schools early

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: 2020-04-29T23:34:29-04:00


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How Schools Are Putting Equity First in Math Instruction

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: 2020-05-06T00:00:00-04:00

Educators are changing instructional priorities, altering lessons, and working on ways to help teachers grow professionally, all in an effort to raise math achievement.


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Civics Tests as a Graduation Requirement: Coming Soon to a State Near You?

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 17 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0000

Eight states have passed laws requiring students to pass some version of a civics test so far in 2015.


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Eight States Add Citizenship Test as Graduation Requirement

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 18 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0000

Advocates have plans to push more state legislatures to pass laws requiring high schoolers to pass a citizenship test in order to graduate in coming years.


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Nevada Ranks 50th on Quality Counts Annual Report Card

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 03 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The state, which earned a D-plus, was weak on socioeconomic factors that can affect the educational environment, and also in the school finance area.


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Alabama State Chief Quits Just Days Before ESSA Plan Due

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 13 Sep 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Michael Sentance abruptly resigns less than a year after being hired to oversee Alabama's schools and as board members were preparing to decide his fate after a brutal evaluation.


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School Quality a Critical Family Issue for Military

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 24 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Concerns about local school systems can pose recruitment and retention hurdles for the armed services as they seek to meet the needs of military families.


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Maryland Ranks Fourth on Quality Counts Annual Report Card

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 03 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The state, which earned a B, saw its educational strength buoyed by strong performance in areas that measure socioeconomic factors that can affect the educational environment.


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Schools Are Required to Teach Mental-Health Lessons This Fall in Two States. And That's a First.

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Thu, 16 Aug 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Students returning to schools in Virginia and New York this fall will be required to participate in mental-health education as part of their health and physical education courses.


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Tennessee Seeks New Teacher, Principal Requirements in 'Science of Reading'

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Mon, 03 Feb 2020 00:00:00 +0000

The Tennessee department of education is proposing unsually comprehensive legislation that will require all current and new K-3 teachers, and those who train them, to know evidence-based reading instruction.


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Colorado Voters to Decide Nearly 40 Ballot Questions to Support Education

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 23 Oct 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Dozens of Colorado school districts are asking voters next month for more funding for education through bond issues, mill levy overrides, or renewal of a city sales tax.


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Questions surround governor's proposal to open schools early

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: 2020-04-30T08:46:17-04:00


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How Schools Are Putting Equity First in Math Instruction

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: 2020-05-05T16:26:10-04:00

Educators are changing instructional priorities, altering lessons, and working on ways to help teachers grow professionally, all in an effort to raise math achievement.


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Should Schools Have an N-Word Policy? Uproar Over Guard's Firing Forces Hard Questions

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Thu, 31 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The firing of a black staff member for repeating the n-word while telling a black student not to use it underscores how uneasy many districts, schools, and educators are with handling the use of racist language in any context.


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Panel Rejects Wisconsin District's Request to Dissolve

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Fri, 10 Jan 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Members of the special state panel felt the Palmyra-Eagle district needs more time to explore options to stay alive, though many residents, including the local school board, believe the district faces a fiscal cliff.


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Michigan, Rhode Island to Require Education About Genocide in Schools

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 29 Jun 2016 00:00:00 +0000

The two states are the first in 20 years to add such a requirement.


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Conn. Stumbles in Quest to Use SAT as Achievement Test

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 19 Sep 2018 00:00:00 +0000

The state's closely watched bid falls shy of full approval from federal reviewers.


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Connecticut Ranks Third on Quality Counts Annual Report Card

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 03 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The state, which earned a B, is one of the nation’s wealthiest and turned in strong performances in the school finance arena and in areas such as preschool and kindergarten enrollment.


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School Workers in Oregon Sue Union Over Window of Opportunity to Quit

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 18 Jun 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Three Oregon school employees sued their union in federal court last week, arguing it's unfair that the teachers' union only lets members drop out and stop paying dues during the month of September.


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