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Long-term consequences of coastal development as bad as an oil spill on coral reefs

(Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute) Oil pollution is known to cause lethal and sublethal responses on coral communities in the short-term, but its long-term effects have not been widely studied. The Bahia Las Minas oil spill, which contaminated about 40 square kilometers (about 15 square miles) near the Smithsonian's Galeta Point Marine Laboratory in Colon and became the largest recorded near coastal habitats in Panama, served as an opportunity to understand how coral reefs in tropical ecosystems recover from acute contamination over time.




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Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation awards new quantitative biology fellowships

(Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation) The first class of Damon Runyon Quantitative Biology Fellowship Awardees launched their research in novel directions that may lead to the next breakthroughs in cancer research. Nine brilliant young scientists will apply their quantitative skills to design innovative experiments and interpret massive data sets that may help solve important biological and clinical problems.




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Disease-carrying mosquitoes could be common in Europe by 2030

Climate change could mean mosquitoes that can carry diseases like dengue, zika and yellow fever become established in southern Europe within 10 years.




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Psychosocial Barriers to Diabetes Self-Management and Quality of Life

Russell E. Glasgow
Jan 1, 2001; 14:
Articles




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Quick Earthquake Messages M6.7 [7.0S, 130.0E] in Tanimbar Islands Region, Indonesia (21:54 HKT 06/05/2020)

Earthquake: 2020-05-06 21:54HKT M6.7 [7.0S, 130.0E] in Tanimbar Islands Region, Indonesia http://openstreetmap.org/?mlat=-7&mlon=130.




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How Human Rights Law Is Evolving to Address Inequality

10 December 2018

Chanu Peiris

Programme Manager, International Law Programme
On the 70th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Chanu Peiris examines how its principles apply to one of today’s burning political issues.

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Copies of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in a variety of languages. Photo: Getty Images.

There is growing attention to human rights in debates on economic inequality. In the UK, concerns about the disproportionate impact of economic policy on vulnerable groups have been raised recently by the UN special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights – who issued a statement criticizing the Conservative government’s austerity policies – as well as in a report from the UK government’s independent Equality and Human Rights Commission. These reports echo global concerns about fiscal policies, poverty and extreme economic inequality.

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights – which celebrates its 70th anniversary today – and the human rights treaties it inspired do not expressly address income and wealth gaps. But international human rights law is playing an increasing role in addressing economic polarization. Those concerned about inequality should consider how, especially over the past 25 years, the principles of socioeconomic rights have been clarified by courts and other human rights mechanisms. 

While the focus in the Global North has historically been on civil and political rights, such as the prohibition on torture or the right to fair trial, international human rights law does set out economic and social rights. For example, Article 23(4) of the Declaration – which is replicated in the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and other treaties – calls for the right to collective bargaining in employment. Weakening protection in this area has been raised as a partial cause of the current escalation in income inequality. 

Human rights law also guarantees rights, including to education, healthcare and social security, that have redistributive potential and so have the potential to mitigate inequality.

Human rights law recognizes that fulfilment of economic and social rights, unlike civil and political rights, can be limited by the resources available to different states, and this conditionality – along with a lack of guidelines to assist with implementation and monitoring – has historically shielded fiscal policies from human rights scrutiny. However, attitudes have shifted.

For example, international human rights law has come to embody a commitment to tackling substantive inequalities which impair human dignity.  This requires the state regulate markets, and redistribute resources, in order to prevent discrimination against disadvantaged groups such as the poor. 

The UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and other human rights bodies assert that states have an immediate obligation, even during times of resource constraint, to ensure the fulfilment, without discrimination, of the minimum essential levels of socioeconomic rights, for example essential subsistence and basic shelter. Thus, austerity measures that scale back the enjoyment of rights may breach human rights standards. In order to justify such measures, governments need to first demonstrate they have considered ‘less restrictive’ avenues, including taxation options.

Although the application of human rights standards to economic policy is an emerging area, human rights campaigners have been successfully leveraging these protections to address the causes and consequences of the inequality crisis. 

For example, in case No. 66/2011 the European Committee of Social Rights overturned austerity measures that would have brought wages under the poverty level, citing breaches of labour rights and protections against discrimination. In Brazil, a coalition of civil society actors successfully used human rights standards to legitimize their critiques of a 2008 tax reform bill that would have given additional tax breaks to the wealthy while withdrawing resources for social services.

Beyond legal enforcement, framing concerns within the architecture of human rights can shift power to rights-bearers and move debates on tackling extreme inequality from the policy sphere into one where the state has a duty for which it is accountable. While the state bears primary responsibility for realizing human rights, non-state actors such as businesses have responsibilities to respect human rights. Thus, human rights can also help communities to recast the scope of the crisis to one of shared responsibility.

While human rights have seen many normative developments and advocacy successes since the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the last 70 years also offer several lessons and strategies to adopt going forward. 

As highlighted at a recent Chatham House event, the continued emphasis on civil and political rights in the discussion about human rights is at odds with the lived experience of individuals and communities worldwide, who may not feel their economic and material concerns are reflected in campaigns for human rights.

There will need to be a greater emphasis on adapting messaging to be more inclusive and to build alliances between disparate groups. Human rights analysis will also need to move beyond documenting the impact of systemic issues towards tackling root causes and creating a positive vision for economic inclusion and governance.




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Human Rights Priorities: An Agenda for Equality and Social Justice

Members Event

19 November 2019 - 6:00pm to 7:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Michelle Bachelet, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights

Chair: Ruma Mandal, Head, International Law Programme, Chatham House

Following just over one year in office, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, outlines her ongoing priorities at a tumultuous time for fundamental rights protections worldwide.

She discusses the rights implications of climate change, gender inequality including the advancement of sexual and reproductive rights, the protection of vulnerable groups and the need to work closely with states, civil society and business to protect and advance human rights.

Department/project

Members Events Team




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MtrP, a putative methyltransferase in Corynebacteria, is required for optimal membrane transport of trehalose mycolates [Lipids]

Pathogenic bacteria of the genera Mycobacterium and Corynebacterium cause severe human diseases such as tuberculosis (Mycobacterium tuberculosis) and diphtheria (Corynebacterium diphtheriae). The cells of these species are surrounded by protective cell walls rich in long-chain mycolic acids. These fatty acids are conjugated to the disaccharide trehalose on the cytoplasmic side of the bacterial cell membrane. They are then transported across the membrane to the periplasm where they act as donors for other reactions. We have previously shown that transient acetylation of the glycolipid trehalose monohydroxycorynomycolate (hTMCM) enables its efficient transport to the periplasm in Corynebacterium glutamicum and that acetylation is mediated by the membrane protein TmaT. Here, we show that a putative methyltransferase, encoded at the same genetic locus as TmaT, is also required for optimal hTMCM transport. Deletion of the C. glutamicum gene NCgl2764 (Rv0224c in M. tuberculosis) abolished acetyltrehalose monocorynomycolate (AcTMCM) synthesis, leading to accumulation of hTMCM in the inner membrane and delaying its conversion to trehalose dihydroxycorynomycolate (h2TDCM). Complementation with NCgl2764 normalized turnover of hTMCM to h2TDCM. In contrast, complementation with NCgl2764 derivatives mutated at residues essential for methyltransferase activity failed to rectify the defect, suggesting that NCgl2764/Rv0224c encodes a methyltransferase, designated here as MtrP. Comprehensive analyses of the individual mtrP and tmaT mutants and of a double mutant revealed strikingly similar changes across several lipid classes compared with WT bacteria. These findings indicate that both MtrP and TmaT have nonredundant roles in regulating AcTMCM synthesis, revealing additional complexity in the regulation of trehalose mycolate transport in the Corynebacterineae.




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COQ11 deletion mitigates respiratory deficiency caused by mutations in the gene encoding the coenzyme Q chaperone protein Coq10 [Lipids]

Coenzyme Q (Qn) is a vital lipid component of the electron transport chain that functions in cellular energy metabolism and as a membrane antioxidant. In the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, coq1–coq9 deletion mutants are respiratory-incompetent, sensitive to lipid peroxidation stress, and unable to synthesize Q6. The yeast coq10 deletion mutant is also respiratory-deficient and sensitive to lipid peroxidation, yet it continues to produce Q6 at an impaired rate. Thus, Coq10 is required for the function of Q6 in respiration and as an antioxidant and is believed to chaperone Q6 from its site of synthesis to the respiratory complexes. In several fungi, Coq10 is encoded as a fusion polypeptide with Coq11, a recently identified protein of unknown function required for efficient Q6 biosynthesis. Because “fused” proteins are often involved in similar biochemical pathways, here we examined the putative functional relationship between Coq10 and Coq11 in yeast. We used plate growth and Seahorse assays and LC-MS/MS analysis to show that COQ11 deletion rescues respiratory deficiency, sensitivity to lipid peroxidation, and decreased Q6 biosynthesis of the coq10Δ mutant. Additionally, immunoblotting indicated that yeast coq11Δ mutants accumulate increased amounts of certain Coq polypeptides and display a stabilized CoQ synthome. These effects suggest that Coq11 modulates Q6 biosynthesis and that its absence increases mitochondrial Q6 content in the coq10Δcoq11Δ double mutant. This augmented mitochondrial Q6 content counteracts the respiratory deficiency and lipid peroxidation sensitivity phenotypes of the coq10Δ mutant. This study further clarifies the intricate connection between Q6 biosynthesis, trafficking, and function in mitochondrial metabolism.




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Genetic Profile and Functional Proteomics of Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Proposal for a Molecular Classification

Lucía Trilla-Fuertes
Apr 1, 2020; 19:690-700
Research




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A Quantitative Tri-fluorescent Yeast Two-hybrid System: From Flow Cytometry to In cellula Affinities

David Cluet
Apr 1, 2020; 19:701-715
Technological Innovation and Resources




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Tandem Mass Tag Approach Utilizing Pervanadate BOOST Channels Delivers Deeper Quantitative Characterization of the Tyrosine Phosphoproteome

Xien Yu Chua
Apr 1, 2020; 19:730-743
Technological Innovation and Resources




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HIGD2A is required for assembly of the COX3 module of human mitochondrial complex IV

Daniella H Hock
Apr 21, 2020; 0:RA120.002076v1-mcp.RA120.002076
Research




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Characterization of Prenylated C-terminal Peptides Using a Thiopropyl-based Capture Technique and LC-MS/MS

James A. Wilkins
Apr 13, 2020; 0:RA120.001944v1-mcp.RA120.001944
Research




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Robust summarization and inference in proteome-wide label-free quantification

Adriaan Sticker
Apr 22, 2020; 0:RA119.001624v1-mcp.RA119.001624
Research




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Quantitative proteomics of human heart samples collected in vivo reveal the remodeled protein landscape of dilated left atrium without atrial fibrillation

Nora Linscheid
Apr 14, 2020; 0:RA119.001878v1-mcp.RA119.001878
Research




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Selection of features with consistent profiles improves relative protein quantification in mass spectrometry experiments

Tsung-Heng Tsai
Mar 31, 2020; 0:RA119.001792v1-mcp.RA119.001792
Research




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Quantitative Profiling of the Human Substantia Nigra Proteome from Laser-capture Microdissected FFPE Tissue

Eva Griesser
May 1, 2020; 19:839-851
Research




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DEqMS: a method for accurate variance estimation in differential protein expression analysis

Yafeng Zhu
Mar 23, 2020; 0:TIR119.001646v1-mcp.TIR119.001646
Technological Innovation and Resources




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Compliance Checklists No Longer Required at Initial Manuscript Submission

Alma L. Burlingame
Apr 1, 2020; 19:571-571
Editorial




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MaxQuant software for ion mobility enhanced shotgun proteomics

Nikita Prianichnikov
Mar 10, 2020; 0:TIR119.001720v1-mcp.TIR119.001720
Technological Innovation and Resources




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An Improved Boosting to Amplify Signal with Isobaric Labeling (iBASIL) Strategy for Precise Quantitative Single-cell Proteomics

Chia-Feng Tsai
May 1, 2020; 19:828-838
Research




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Acquiring and Analyzing Data Independent Acquisition Proteomics Experiments without Spectrum Libraries

Lindsay K Pino
Apr 20, 2020; 0:P119.001913v1-mcp.P119.001913
Perspective




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A Compact Quadrupole-Orbitrap Mass Spectrometer with FAIMS Interface Improves Proteome Coverage in Short LC Gradients

Dorte B. Bekker-Jensen
Apr 1, 2020; 19:716-729
Technological Innovation and Resources




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Bank of REU/Grad Fair Questions

By Lucy Martinez and Eduardo Torres Davila We attended the Joint Math Meetings (JMM) conference in Denver to present our research from our work at the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute Undergraduate Program. At JMM, there was a fair of graduate … Continue reading




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Building LGBTIQ+ Inclusivity in the Armed Forces, 20 Years After the Ban Was Lifted

16 January 2020

Will Davies

Army Chief of General Staff Research Fellow, International Security Programme
Change was slow to come but progress has since been swift. Not only can a continuing focus on inclusivity benefit service people and the organization, it is also an essential element of a values-based foreign policy.

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Crew members from HMS Westminster march through Admiralty Arch as they exercise their freedom of the city in August 2019 in London. Photo: Getty Images.

The new UK government will conduct a review of foreign, security and defence policy in 2020. If the UK decides to use values as a framework for foreign policy this needs to be reflected in its armed forces. One area where this is essential is continuing to deepen inclusivity for LGBTIQ+ personnel, building on the progress made since the ban on their service was lifted in 2000.

I witnessed the ban first-hand as a young officer in the British Army in 1998. As the duty officer I visited soldiers being held in the regimental detention cells to check all was well. One day a corporal, who I knew, was there awaiting discharge from the army having been convicted of being gay. On the one hand, here was service law in action, which was officially protecting the army’s operational effectiveness and an authority not to be questioned at my level. On the other, here was an excellent soldier in a state of turmoil and public humiliation. How extreme this seems now.

On 12 January 2000 Tony Blair’s Labour government announced an immediate lifting of the ban for lesbian, gay and bisexual personnel (LGB) and introduced a new code of conduct for personal relationships. (LGB is the term used by the armed forces to describe those personnel who had been banned prior to 2000.) This followed a landmark ruling in a case taken to the European Court of Human Rights in 1999 by four LGB ex-service personnel – supported by Stonewall – who had been dismissed from service for their sexuality.

Up to that point the Ministry of Defence's long-held position had been that LGB personnel had a negative impact on the morale and cohesion of a unit and damaged operational effectiveness. Service personnel were automatically dismissed if it was discovered they were LGB, even though homosexuality had been decriminalized in the UK by 1967.

Proof that the armed forces had been lagging behind the rest of society was confirmed by the positive response to the change among service personnel, despite a handful of vocal political and military leaders who foresaw negative impacts. The noteworthy service of LGBTIQ+ people in Iraq and Afghanistan only served to debunk any residual myths.

Twenty years on, considerable progress has been made and my memories from 1998 now seem alien. This is a story to celebrate – however in the quest for greater inclusivity there is always room for improvement.

Defence Minister Johnny Mercer last week apologized following recent calls from campaign group Liberty for a fuller apology. In December 2019, the Ministry of Defence announced it was putting in place a scheme to return medals stripped from veterans upon their discharge.

The armed forces today have a range of inclusivity measures to improve workplace culture including assessments of workplace climate and diversity networks supported by champions drawn from senior leadership.

But assessing the actual lived experience for LGBTIQ+ people is challenging due to its subjectivity. This has not been helped by low participation in the 2015 initiative to encourage people to declare confidentially their sexual orientation, designed to facilitate more focused and relevant policies. As of 1 October 2019, only 20.3 per cent of regular service people had declared a sexual orientation.

A measure of positive progress is the annual Stonewall Workplace Equality Index, the definitive benchmarking tool for employers to measure their progress on LGBTIQ+ inclusion in the workplace; 2015 marked the first year in which all three services were placed in the top 100 employers in the UK and in 2019 the Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force were placed 15th=, 51st= and 68th respectively.

Nevertheless, LGBTIQ+ service people and those in other protected groups still face challenges. The 2019 Ministry of Defence review of inappropriate behaviour in the armed forces, the Wigston Report, concluded there is an unacceptable level of sexual harassment, bullying and discrimination. It found that 26-36% of LGBTIQ+ service people have experienced negative comments or conduct at work because of their sexual orientation.

The Secretary of State for Defence accepted the report’s 36 recommendations on culture, incident reporting, training and a more effective complaints system. Pivotal to successful implementation will be a coherent strategy driven by fully engaged leaders.

Society is also expecting ever higher standards, particularly in public bodies. The armed forces emphasise their values and standards, including ‘respect for others’, as defining organisational characteristics; individuals are expected to live by them. Only in a genuinely inclusive environment can an individual thrive and operate confidently within a team.

The armed forces also recognize as a priority the need to connect to and reflect society more closely in order to attract and retain talent from across all of society. The armed forces’ active participation in UK Pride is helping to break down barriers in this area.

In a post-Brexit world, the UK’s values, support for human rights and reputation for fairness are distinctive strengths that can have an impact on the world stage and offer a framework for future policy. The armed forces must continue to push and promote greater inclusivity in support. When operating overseas with less liberal regimes, this will be sensitive and require careful handling; however it will be an overt manifestation of a broader policy and a way to communicate strong and consistent values over time.

The armed forces were damagingly behind the times 20 years ago. But good progress has been made since. Inclusion initiatives must continue to be pushed to bring benefits to the individual and the organization as well as demonstrate a values-based foreign policy.




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Conflict and the Water Crisis in Iraq

Invitation Only Research Event

9 March 2020 - 9:00am to 10:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Dr Azzam Alwash, Founder & CEO, Nature Iraq
Peter Schwartzstein, Independent Journalist; Non-Resident Fellow, Centre for Climate Security
Discussant: Dr Jehan Baban, Founder & President, The Iraqi Environment and Health Society-UK
Chair: Dr Glada Lahn, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Department, Chatham House

Water is a critical issue for Iraq’s future stability and prosperity. Only a few decades ago, the country was one of the most fertile in the region, with two major rivers flowing through it. Today, national and transboundary pollution, mismanagement, and debilitating cycles of conflict have contributed to a situation where only half of current water needs are being met, and where an 80% reduction in the flow of water down the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has led to the loss of millions of acres of formerly productive land and the displacement of rural communities.

Water scarcity can be a driver of violence and conflict. Tribal conflicts over water sources have erupted sporadically in the south and the contamination of municipal water which led to the hospitalization of some 118,000 citizens was a trigger for the large-scale protests in Basra in late 2018. Without concerted action by national and local governments, companies and international agencies, the situation will only worsen as higher temperatures and reduced rainfall drive rural-to-urban migration and increase the risk of drought, food insecurity and water-related diseases.

At this roundtable, part of the Chatham House Iraq Initiative, experts will discuss the domestic, regional and international factors that continue to exacerbate the water crisis in Iraq, and propose solutions, including technical innovation, public sector capacity-building and greater international cooperation, that might contribute to effective state-building, build resilience to the effects of climate change and reduce the risk of further conflict.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Georgia Cooke

Project Manager, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7957 5740




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Unpacking the role of religion in political transnationalism: the case of the Shi'a Iraqi diaspora since 2003

4 March 2020 , Volume 96, Number 2

Oula Kadhum

This article explores the role of religion in political transnationalism using the case of the Shi'a Iraqi diaspora since 2003. The article focuses on three areas that capture important trends in Shi'a transnationalism and their implications for transnational Shi'a identity politics. These include Shi'a diasporic politics, transnational Shi'a civic activism, and the cultural production of Iraqi Shi'a identity through pilgrimages, rituals and new practices. It is argued that understanding Shi'a Islam and identity formation requires adopting a transnational lens. The evolution of Shi'a Islam is not only a result of the dictates of the Shi'a clerical centres, and how they influence Shi'a populations abroad, but also the transnational interrelationships and links to holy shrine cities, Shi'i national and international politics, humanitarianism and commemorations and rituals. The article demonstrates that Shi'a political transnationalism is unexceptional in that it echoes much of the literature on diasporic politics and development where diaspora involve themselves from afar in the politics and societies of their countries of origin. At the same time, it shows the exceptionalism of Shi'a diasporic movements, in that their motivations and mobilizations are contributing to the reification of sectarian geographical and social borders, creating a transnationalism that is defined by largely Shi'a networks, spaces, actors and causes. The case of Shi'a political transnationalism towards Iraq shows that this is increasing the distance between Shi'is and Iraq's other communities, simultaneously fragmenting Iraq's national unity while deepening Shi'a identity and politics both nationally and supra-nationally.




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Virtual Roundtable: Iraq in Uncertain Times

Invitation Only Research Event

30 March 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:30pm

Event participants

Toby Dodge, Associate Fellow, MENA Programme, Chatham House
Mac Skelton, Director, IRIS, American University of Iraq-Sulaimani
Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Investment Officer, AFC Iraq Fund
Hanaa Edwar, Co-founder and Chairperson, Iraqi Al-Amal Association
Chair: Renad Mansour, Senior Research Fellow, MENA Programme, Chatham House

The first months of 2020 have proven tumultuous for Iraq. The US killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January threatened to engulf the region in war and led to continued tit-for-tat violence between the US and Iran that has become almost a daily reality in Baghdad.

Amid the ongoing protests that since last October have challenged the social contract and led to a violent response claiming 600 deaths and injuring tens of thousands, the government is still without a prime minister after Adil abd al-Mehdi's resignation in November 2019, leaving the country directionless.

Most recently, the spread of COVID-19 threatens to expose a mismanaged healthcare system. At the same time, the rapid fall in the price of oil has impacted the government's ability to respond to or cope with these crises.

At this virtual roundtable, part of the Chatham House Iraq Initiative, experts explore these developments and try to unpack the implications for Iraq’s fragile peace and stability.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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COVID 19: Assessing Vulnerabilities and Impacts on Iraq

7 April 2020

Dr Renad Mansour

Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme; Project Director, Iraq Initiative

Dr Mac Skelton

Director, Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), American University of Iraq, Sulaimani; Visiting Fellow, Middle East Centre, London School of Economics

Dr Abdulameer Mohsin Hussein

President of the Iraq Medical Association
Following 17 years of conflict and fragile state-society relations, the war-torn country is particularly vulnerable to the pandemic.

2020-04-07-Iraq-COVID-spray

Disinfecting shops in Baghdad's Bayaa neighbourhood as a preventive measure against the spread of COVID-19. Photo by AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP via Getty Images.

Iraq is a country already in turmoil, suffering fallout from the major military escalation between the US and Iran, mass protests calling for an end to the post-2003 political system, and a violent government crackdown killing more than 600 and wounding almost 30,000 - all presided over by a fragmented political elite unable to agree upon a new prime minister following Adil abd al-Mehdi’s resignation back in November.

COVID-19 introduces yet another threat to the fragile political order, as the virus exposes Iraq’s ineffective public health system dismantled through decades of conflict, corruption and poor governance.

Iraqi doctors are making every effort to prepare for the worst-case scenario, but they do so with huge structural challenges. The Ministry of Health lacks enough ICU beds, human resources, ventilators, and personal protective equipment (PPE). Bogged down in bureaucracy, the ministry is struggling to process procurements of equipment and medications, and some doctors have made purchases themselves.

But individual efforts can only go so far as many Iraqi doctors are concerned the official numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases do not reflect the complexity of the situation on the ground.

The ministry relies predominately upon patients self-presenting at designated public hospitals and has only just begun community-based testing in areas of suspected clusters. Reliance on self-presentation requires a level of trust between citizens and state institutions, which is at a historic low. This gap in trust – 17 years in the making – puts Iraq’s COVID-19 response particularly at risk.

Iraq’s myriad vulnerabilities

Certain social and political factors leave Iraq uniquely exposed to the coronavirus. The country’s vulnerability is tied directly to its social, religious and economic interconnections with Iran, an epicenter of the pandemic.

Exchanges between Iran and Iraq are concentrated in two regions, with strong cross-border links between Iraqi and Iranian Kurds in the north-east, and Iraqi and Iranian Shia pilgrims in the south. Cross-border circulation of religious pilgrims is particularly concerning, as they can result in mass ritual gatherings.

The high number of confirmed cases in the southern and northern peripheries of the country puts a spotlight on Iraq's failure in managing healthcare. The post-2003 government has failed to either rebuild a robust centralized healthcare system, or to pave the way for a federalized model.

Caught in an ambiguous middle between a centralized and federalized model, coordination across provinces and hospitals during the coronavirus crisis has neither reflected strong management from Baghdad nor robust ownership at the governorate level.

This problem is part of a wider challenge of managing centre-periphery relations and federalism, which since 2003 has not worked effectively. Baghdad has provided all 18 provinces with instructions on testing and treatment, but only a handful have enough resources to put them into practice. Advanced testing capacity is limited to the five provinces with WHO-approved centers, with the remaining 13 sending swabs to Baghdad.

But the greatest challenge to Iraq’s COVID-19 response is the dramatic deterioration of state-society relations. Studies reveal a profound societal distrust of Iraq’s public healthcare institutions, due to corruption and militarization of medical institutions. Numerous videos have recently circulated of families refusing to turn over sick members - particularly women - to medical teams visiting households with confirmed or suspected cases.

As medical anthropologist Omar Dewachi notes, the ‘moral economy of quarantine’ in Iraq is heavily shaped by a history of war and its impact on the relationship between people and the state. Although local and international media often interpret this reluctance to undergo quarantine as a matter of social or tribal norms, distrusting the state leads many families to refuse quarantine because they believe it resembles a form of arrest.

The management of coronavirus relies upon an overt convergence between medical institutions and security forces as the federal police collaborate with the Ministry of Health to impose curfews and enforce quarantine. This means that, troublingly, the same security establishment which violently cracked down on protesters and civil society activists is now the teeth behind Iraq’s COVID-19 response.

Without trust between society and the political class, civil society organizations and protest movements have directed their organizational structure towards awareness-raising across Iraq. Key religious authorities such as Grand Ayatollah Sistani have called for compliance to the curfew and mobilized charitable institutions.

However, such efforts will not be enough to make up for the lack of governance at the level of the state. In the short-term, Iraq’s medical professionals and institutions are in dire need of technical and financial support. In the long-term, COVID-19 is a lesson that Iraq’s once robust public healthcare system needs serious investment and reform.

COVID-19 may prove to be another catalyst challenging the ‘muddle through’ logic of the Iraqi political elite. International actors have largely been complicit in this logic, directing aid and technical support towards security forces and political allies in the interest of short-term stability, and neglecting institutions which Iraqis rely on for health, education, and well-being.

The response to the crisis requires cooperation and buy-in of a population neglected by 17 years of failed governance. This is a seminal event that may push the country to the brink, exposing and stirring underlying tensions in state-society relations.

This analysis was produced as part of the Iraq Initiative.




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Same Old Politics Will Not Solve Iraq Water Crisis

15 April 2020

Georgia Cooke

Project Manager, Middle East and North Africa Programme

Dr Renad Mansour

Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme; Project Director, Iraq Initiative

Glada Lahn

Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
Addressing Iraq’s water crisis should be a priority for any incoming prime minister as it is damaging the country’s attempts to rebuild. But successive governments have allowed the problem to fester.

2020-04-15-Iraq-Water

Punting in the marshes south of the Iraqi city of Ammarah. Photo by Ghaith Abdul-Ahad/Getty Images.

Historically, Iraq lay claim to one of the most abundant water supplies in the Middle East. But the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has reduced by up to 40% since the 1970s, due in part to the actions of neighbouring countries, in particular Turkey, upstream.

Rising temperatures and reduced rainfall due to climate change are also negatively impacting Iraq’s water reserves. Evaporation from dams and reservoirs is estimated to lose the country up to 8 billion cubic metres of water every year.

A threat to peace and stability

Shortages have dried up previously fertile land, increasing poverty in agricultural areas. Shortages have also served to fuel conflict: communities faced with successive droughts and government inertia proved to be easy targets for ISIS recruiters, who lured farmers into joining them by offering money and food to feed their families. Economic hardship for those whose livelihoods relied upon river water has also driven rural to urban migration, putting significant strain on already over-populated towns and cities, exacerbating housing, job and electricity shortages, and widening the gap between haves and have-nots.

But scarcity isn’t the most crucial element of Iraq’s water crisis – contamination is. Decades of local government mismanagement, corrupt practices and a lack of regulation of dumping (it is estimated up to 70% of Iraq’s industrial waste is dumped directly into water) has left approximately three in every five citizens without a reliable source of potable water.

In 2018, 118,000 residents of Basra province were hospitalised with symptoms brought on by drinking contaminated water, which not only put a spotlight on the inadequacies of a crumbling healthcare system but sparked mass protests and a subsequent violent crackdown.

The water crisis is also undermining the stability of the country’s federal governance model, by occasionally sparking disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government, as well as between governorates in the south.

The crisis is both a symptom and a cause of poor governance. Iraq is stuck in a cycle whereby government inaction causes shortages and contamination, which result in economic losses, reduced food supply, increased prices and widespread poor health. This in turn leads to increasing levels of poverty, higher demand on services and civil unrest, increasing the pressure on a weak, dysfunctional system of government.

What can be done?

The first priority should be modernising existing water-management infrastructure - a relic of a time when the problem was an excess rather than a shortage of water (the last time Iraq’s flood defences were required was 1968). Bureaucratic hurdles, widespread corruption and an endless cycle of other crises taking precedent prevent good initiatives from being implemented or scaled up.

Diversifying energy sources to improve provision is crucial. Baghdad has a sewage treatment plant that originally ran on its own electricity source, but this capacity was destroyed in 1991 and was never replaced. The city continues to suffer from dangerous levels of water pollution because the electricity supply from the grid is insufficient to power the plant. Solar energy has great potential in sun-drenched Iraq to bridge the gaping hole in energy provision, but successive governments have chosen to focus on fossil fuels rather than promoting investment to grow the renewables sector.

Heightened tension with upstream Turkey could turn water into another cause of regional conflict. But, if approached differently, collaboration between Iraq and its neighbour could foster regional harmony.

Turkey’s elevated geography and cooler climate mean its water reserves suffer 75% less evaporation than Iraq’s. Given that Turkey’s top energy priority is the diversification of its supply of imported hydrocarbons, a win-win deal could see Turkey exchange access to its water-management infrastructure for delivery of reduced cost energy supplies from Iraq.

German-French cooperation on coal and steel in the 1950s and the evolution of economic integration that followed might provide a model for how bilateral cooperation over one issue could result in cooperation with other regional players (in this case Iran and Syria) on a range of other issues. This kind of model would need to consider the future of energy, whereby oil and gas would be replaced by solar-power exports.

These solutions have been open to policymakers for years and yet they have taken little tangible action. While there are leaders and bureaucrats with the will to act, effective action is invariably blocked by a complex and opaque political system replete with vested interests in maintaining power and wealth via a weak state and limited services from central government.

Breaking the cycle

To break this cycle, Iraq needs a group of professional and able actors outside of government to work with willing elements of the state bureaucracy as a taskforce to pressure for action and accountability. Publishing the recommendations from a hitherto withheld report produced in the aftermath of Basra’s 2018 heath crisis would be a great start.

In time, this taskforce could champion the prioritisation of water on the national agenda, the implementation of infrastructure upgrades, and hold more productive conversations with neighbour states.

With such a high degree of state fragmentation and dysfunction in Iraq, looking to the central government to provide leadership will not yield results. Engagement with a coalition of non-state actors can begin to address the water crisis and also open a dialogue around new models of governance for other critical issues. This might even be a starting point for rewriting the tattered social contract in Iraq.

This piece is based on insights and discussion at a roundtable event, Conflict and the Water Crisis in Iraq, held at Chatham House on March 9 as part of the Iraq Initiative.




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Why is it So Hard for Iraq to Form A Government?

25 April 2020

Dr Renad Mansour

Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme; Project Director, Iraq Initiative
Mustafa al-Kadhimi has emerged as the compromise prime minister designate, but his potential appointment is built on shaky foundations.

2020-04-25-Iraq-Security-COVID

A member of Iraqi security forces stands guard behind a yellow line after the government declared curfew due to coronavirus. Photo by Fariq Faraj Mahmood/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

On April 9, Iraqi President Barham Salih gathered the Shia, Kurdish and Sunni political blocs at the presidential palace to task head of intelligence Mustafa al-Kadhimi with forming a government.

Kadhimi is the third prime minister-designate assigned since Prime Minister Adil abd al-Mehdi resigned in November, in the wake of mass protests against government corruption and the country’s ethno-sectarian based political system.

Kadhimi’s two predecessors, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi and Adnan al-Zurfi, both failed to form a government. This third attempt came as Iraq struggles with repeated crises since October 2019, when the government began responding with deadly force to large-scale mass protests, killing more than 600 and injuring tens of thousands.

In January, the assassination of Qasem Soleimani escalated tensions between the United States and Iran, with Iraq stuck in the middle and becoming the home for regular tit-for-tat attacks. The Islamic State — never completely defeated — took advantage of these crises and increased its attacks in disputed territories.

The outbreak of COVID-19 challenges the country’s fragile public health sector, while the decline in the price of oil will make it harder for leaders to pay the public salaries that keep the system (and patronage) moving.

What does the delay in forming a government amid multiple crises mean for the post-2003 Iraqi political system?

Iraq’s post-2003 political system is designed to withstand crisis. Over the years, political parties reflecting the country’s ethnic and sectarian divides have had a tacit understanding that crises represent a risk to their collective interests. These elite stakeholders have together weathered civil war, insurgency and multiple protests — despite deep conflicts with one another.

For instance, in September 2018 protesters attacked most major political party headquarters and the Iranian consulate in Basra, and authorities killed some 20 protesters.

Since the May election of that year, the fragmented Shia elite had been unable to even declare which side has the largest parliamentary bloc, let alone decide on a government.

But after the September crisis, the previously gridlocked parties swiftly came together to form an “understanding” that pushed through the impasse leading to the Mehdi government. In 2020, however, Iraq’s political parties were slower to come back together despite the multiple crises — far greater than 2018. The system is less able to swiftly fix itself, based primarily on the fragmentation of the elite — and their determination to prevent any challenge to their rule.

Why did the two prior attempts fail?

The two previous prime minister-designates each fell short for different reasons. When I met Allawi in February at the prime minister’s guesthouse in Baghdad, he was very clearly convinced that his mandate was to sideline the parties.

He hoped that simply choosing technocratic ministers outside the elite pact, with the support of Moqtada al-Sadr behind him, would garner support from protesters and the disillusioned public. He failed, however, because his cabinet had to go through parliament and the parties rejected what they saw a threat to the elite pact and the system.

Zurfi similarly failed after being directly appointed in March by Salih after the Shia parties failed to come up with a candidate. From the beginning, then, Zurfi faced challenges because parties were not in agreement. He attempted to directly confront his opposition, and spoke out against Iranian influence in Iraq. As a result, Zurfi was unable to even get to parliament with his proposed cabinet, as the Shia parties got back together to bring him down.

The failure of both strategies — Allawi attempting to work outside the elite party system and Zurfi trying to target certain parties — reveals tensions in Iraq’s political system. This fragmentation strains the parties’ ability to swiftly unite, and the system’s ability to withstand crises.

The endemic problems are a consequence of fragmentation, including the failure following the 2018 elections to declare governing parliamentary bloc. Moreover, after that election, newcomers into the political system (two-thirds of the MPs are serving their first term) are increasingly making their own demands and less willing to blindly toe party lines.

Can Kadhimi overcome the impasse?

Kadhimi’s appointment as prime minister-designate nonetheless is on shaky foundations. His appointment had previously faced a veto from Iran and its allied groups which make up the Fateh bloc. Kataeb Hezbollah, an armed group close to Iran and linked to the Popular Mobilization Units, issued a statement accusing Kadhimi with blood on his hands for the deaths of Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

Many Fateh bloc members had for months vetoed Kadhimi’s name due to this allegation. Immediately before Kadhimi addressed the nation for the first time, Iraqi state television broadcast a prerecorded statement by PMU (and Fateh) leader Qais al-Khazali, who had also previously accused Kadhimi of spying for the Americans and being complicit in the two killings.

Khazali, who commands the second-largest party within Fateh, accepted the party line to back Kadhimi but came out with his own conditions on television. However, the concerns about the COVID-19 crisis and the collapse of the price of oil finally brought all sides to compromise — a design of the political system.

Kadhimi has signalled he will play by the old rules with these stakeholders. Because of the magnitude of these simultaneous crises, Iraqi politics is moving back to the post-2003 norm. The ethno-sectarian based political system is geared to weather such existential crises more than it is to handling day-to-day governance. Despite the notion of “post-sectarianism” in Iraq, this system is based on ethno-sectarian political party compromise.

In his television address, Khazali, who had previously attempted to move away from sectarian language, explained that the process of selecting a prime minister is reserved to the Shia, who have the right as the majority, and not to Salih, a Kurd.

Over the years Kadhimi has expressed an admiration of the bravery of the protesters and of the importance of civil society. Many Iraqi civil society activists owe their lives to the work of the former intelligence chief. However, he has also been part of the same system that has violently suppressed protesters.

As the compromise prime minister-designate, he will find it difficult to transform his country as long as he plays by the rules of post-2003 Iraq — an irony not lost on the protesters who immediately rejected the candidacy of a man whom until recently many protesters had supported.

This article was originally published in The Washington Post




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Webinar: Will COVID-19 Mark the Endgame for Iraq's Muhasasa Ta'ifia?

Research Event

30 April 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Event participants

Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Investment Officer, Asia Frontier Capital Iraq Fund; Adjunct Assistant Professor, American University of Iraq Sulaimani
Moderator: Renad Mansour, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Control of oil rents underpins Iraq’s post-2003 political order. This political order, known as Muhasasa Ta’ifia (ethno-sectarian apportionment), features an elite bargain inclusive of all major ethnic and sect-based political groups. It has enabled the state's continuity and apparent stability through multiple crises, including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014 oil crisis, and the war with ISIS.

In a recent article, Ahmed Tabaqchali examines how the crash in oil rents, brought about by COVID-19’s disruption of the world economy, exposes the structural inconsistencies and inherent contradictions of the Muhasasa Tai’fia system. The article argues that the current Iraqi political elite is ill-equipped to resolve the multi-faceted challenge facing the country because of its increasing fragmentation and the erosion of its legitimacy, advanced institutional decay and fundamentally different oil dynamics.

In this webinar, part of the Chatham House project on the future of the state in the Middle East and North Africa, the article’s author will discuss the deficiencies of the Muhasasa Ta’ifia system and will offer his insight into the future of this governance model in the context of a worsening economic crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and existing demographic pressures.
 
You can express your interest in attending by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.
 

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Soundscapes of war: the audio-visual performance of war by Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helle Malmvig

This article sets out to bring sound and music to the field of visual studies in International Relations. It argues that IR largely has approached the visual field as if it was without sound; neglecting how audial landscapes frame and direct our interpretation of moving imagery. Sound and music contribute to making imagery intelligible to us, we ‘hear the pictures’ often without noticing. The audial can for instance articulate a visual absence, or blast visual signs, bring out certain emotional stages or subjects’ inner life. Audial frames steer us in distinct directions, they can mute the cries of the wounded in war, or amplify the sounds of joy of soldiers shooting in the air. To bring the audial and the visual analytically and empirically together, the article therefore proposes four key analytical themes: 1) the audial–visual frame, 2) point of view/point of audition, 3) modes of audio-visual synchronization and 4) aesthetics moods. These are applied to a study of ‘war music videos’ in Iraq and Syria made and circulated by Shi'a militias currently fighting there. Such war music videos, it is suggested, are not just artefacts of popular culture, but have become integral parts of how warfare is practiced today, and one that is shared by soldiers in the US and Europe. War music videos are performing war, just as they shape how war is known by spectators and participants alike.




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Evaluation of dosimetry, quantitative methods and test-retest variability of 18F-PI-2620 PET for the assessment of tau deposits in the human brain

18F-PI-2620 is a next generation tau positron emission tomography (PET)-tracer that has demonstrated ability to image the spatial distribution of suspected tau pathology. The objective of this study was to assess the tracer biodistribution, dosimetry and quantitative methods of 18F-PI-2620 in the human brain. Full kinetic modelling approaches to quantify tau load were investigated. Non-invasive kinetic modeling approaches and semi-quantitative methods were evaluated against the full tracer kinetics. Finally, the reproducibility of PET measurements from test and retest scans was assessed. Methods: Three healthy controls (HC) and 4 Alzheimer disease (AD) subjects underwent two dynamic PET scans including arterial sampling. Distribution volume ratio (DVR) was estimated using full tracer kinetics (2 Tissue Compartment (2TC) models, Logan Graphical Analysis (LGA)) and non-invasive kinetic models (Non-Invasive Logan Graphical Analysis (NI-LGA) and the multilinear reference tissue model (MRTM2)). Standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) was determined at different imaging windows after injection. Correlation between DVR and SUVR, effect size (Cohen’s d) and test-retest variability (TRV) were evaluated. Additionally, 6 HC subjects received one tracer administration and underwent whole-body PET for dosimetry calculation. Organ doses and the whole-body effective dose were calculated using OLINDA 2.0. Results: Strong correlation was found across different kinetic models (R2 >0.97) and between DVR(2TC) and SUVRs between 30 to 90 min with R2>0.95. Secular equilibrium was reached around 40 min post injection (p.i.) in most regions and subjects. The TRV and effect size for the SUVR across different regions was similar at 30-60 min (TRV=3.8%, d=3.80), 45-75 min (TRV=4.3%, d=3.77) and 60-90 min (TRV=4.9%, d=3.73) and increased at later time points. Elimination was via the hepatobiliary and urinary system. The whole-body effective dose was determined to be 33.3±2.1 μSv/MBq for an adult female and 33.1±1.4 μSv/MBq for an adult male with a 1.5 hour urinary bladder voiding interval. Conclusion: 18F-PI-2620 exhibits fast kinetics, suitable dosimetry and low TRV. DVR measured using the 2TC model with arterial sampling correlated strongly with DVR measured by NI-LGA, MRTM2 and SUVR. SUVR can be used for 18F-PI-2620 PET quantification of tau deposits avoiding arterial blood sampling. Static 18F-PI-2620 PET scans between 45-75min p.i. provide excellent quantification accuracy, large effect size and low TRV.




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Combined Visual and Semi-quantitative Evaluation Improves Outcome Prediction by Early Mid-treatment 18F-fluoro-deoxi-glucose Positron Emission Tomography in Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma.

The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive and prognostic value of interim FDG PET (iPET) in evaluating early response to immuno-chemotherapy after two cycles (PET-2) in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) by applying two different methods of interpretation: the Deauville visual five-point scale (5-PS) and a change in standardised uptake value by semi-quantitative evaluation. Methods: 145 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL underwent pre-treatment PET (PET-0) and PET-2 assessment. PET-2 was classified according to both the visual 5-PS and percentage SUV changes (SUV). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to compare the accuracy of the two methods for predicting progression-free survival (PFS). Survival estimates, based on each method separately and combined, were calculated for iPET-positive (iPET+) and iPET-negative (iPET–) groups and compared. Results: Both with visual and SUV-based evaluations significant differences were found between the PFS of iPET– and iPET+ patient groups (p<0.001). Visually the best negative (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) occurred when iPET was defined as positive if Deauville score 4-5 (89% and 59%, respectively). Using the 66% SUV cut-off value, reported previously, NPV and PPV were 80 and 76%, respectively. SUV at 48.9% cut-off point, reported for the first time here, produced 100% specificity along with the highest sensitivity (24%). Visual and semi-quantitative SUV<48.9% assessment of each PET-2 gave the same PET-2 classification (positive or negative) in 70% (102/145) of all patients. This combined classification delivered NPV and PPV of 89% and 100% respectively, and all iPET+ patients failed to achieve or remain in remission. Conclusion: In this large consistently treated and assessed series of DLBCL, iPET had good prognostic value interpreted either visually or semi-quantitatively. We determined that the most effective SUV cut-off was at 48.9%, and that when combined with visual 5-PS assessment, a positive PET-2 was highly predictive of treatment failure.




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PET/MRI versus PET/CT in whole-body staging: results from a unicenter observational study in 1003 subsequent examinations

Purpose: To investigate differences between positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging (PET/MRI) and PET/computed tomography (PET/CT) in lesion detection and classification in oncological whole-body examinations and to investigate radiation exposure differences between both modalities. Material and Methods: In this prospective, single-center, observational study 1003 oncological examinations (918 patients, mean age 57.8±14.4y) were included. Patients underwent PET/CT and subsequent PET/MRI (149.8±49.7min after tracer administration). Examinations were reviewed by radiologists and nuclear medicine physicians in consensus. Additional findings, characterization of indetermiante findings in PETCT, missed findings in PET/MRI including their clinical relevance and effective dose of both modalities were investigated. McNemar’s test was used to compare lesion detection between both hybrid imaging modalities (p<0.001 indicating statistical significance). Results: Additional information in PET/MRI was reported in 26.3% (264/1003) of examinations compared to PET/CT (p<0.001). Of these, additional malignant findings were detected in 5.3% (53/1003), leading to a change in TNM-staging in 2.9% (29/1003) due to PET/MRI. Definite lesion classification of indeterminate PET/CT findings was possible in 11.1% (111/1003) with PET/MRI. In 2.9% (29/1003), lesions detected in PET/CT were not visible in PET/MRI. Malignant lesions were missed in 1.2% (12/1003) by PET/MRI leading to a change in TNM-staging in 0.5% (5/1003). The estimated mean effective-dose for whole-body PET/CT amounted to 17.6±8.7mSv in comparison to 3.6±1.4mSv in PET/MRI, resulting in a potential dose reduction of 79.6% (p<0.001). Conclusion: PET/MRI improves lesion detection and potentially reduces additional examinations in tumor staging. Especially younger patients may benefit from the clinically relevant dose reduction of PET/MRI compared to PET/CT.




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Quantitative test-retest measurement of 68Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC (PSMA-11) in tumor and normal tissue

The PET radiotracer 68Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC (68Ga-PSMA-11) shows potential as an imaging biomarker for recurrent and metastatic prostate cancer. The purpose of this study was to determine repeatability of 68Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC in a test-retest trial in subjects with metastatic prostate adenocarcinoma. Methods: Subjects with metastatic prostate cancer underwent two PET/CT scans with 68Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC within 14 days (mean 6 ± 4 d). Lesions in bone, nodes, prostate/bed, and visceral organs as well as representative normal tissues (salivary glands and spleen) were segmented separately by two readers. Absolute and percent differences in SUVmax and SUVmean were calculated for all test-retest regions. Repeatability was assessed using percentage difference, within-subject coefficient of variation (wCV), repeatability coefficient (RC), and Bland-Altman analysis. Results: 18 subjects were evaluated, 16 of which demonstrated local or metastatic disease on 68Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC PET/CT. A total of 136 lesions were segmented in bone (n = 99), nodes (n = 27), prostate/bed (n = 7), and viscera (n = 3). The wCV for SUVmax was 11.7% for bone lesions and 13.7% for nodes. The RC was ±32.5% SUVmax for bone lesions and ±37.9% SUVmax for nodal lesions, meaning 95% of the normal variability between two measurements will be within these numbers, so larger differences are likely attributable to true biological changes in tumor rather than normal physiologic or measurement variability. wCV in the salivary glands and spleen was 8.9% and 10.7% SUVmean, respectively. Conclusion: Repeatability measurements for PET/CT test-retest with 68Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC show a wCV 12-14% SUVmax and RC ±33-38% SUVmax in bone and nodal lesions. These estimates are an important aspect of 68Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC as a quantitative imaging biomarker. These estimates are similar to those reported for 18F-FDG, suggesting that 68Ga-PSMA-HBED-CC PET/CT may be useful in monitoring response to therapy.




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Does 2-FDG-PET Accurately Reflect Quantitative In vivo Glucose Utilization?

2-Deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro-D-glucose (2-FDG) with positron emission tomography (2-FDG-PET) is undeniably useful in the clinic, among other uses, to monitor change over time using the 2-FDG standardized uptake values (SUV) metric. This report suggests some potentially serious caveats for this and related roles for 2-FDG PET. Most critical is the assumption that there is an exact proportionality between glucose metabolism and 2-FDG metabolism, called the lumped constant, LC. This report describes that LC is not constant for a specific tissue and may be variable before and after disease treatment. The purpose of this work is not to deny the clinical value of 2-FDG PET; it is a reminder that when one extends the use of an appropriately qualified imaging method, new observations may arise and further validation would be necessary. Current understanding of glucose-based energetics in vivo is based on the quantification of glucose metabolic rates with 2-FDG PET, a method that permits the non-invasive assessment in various human disorders. However, 2-FDG is only a good substrate for facilitated-glucose transporters (GLUTs) but not for sodium-dependent glucose co-transporters (SGLTs), which have recently been shown to be distributed in multiple human tissues. Thus, the GLUT-mediated in vivo glucose utilization measured by 2-FDG PET would be blinded to the potentially substantial role of functional SGLTs in glucose transport and utilization. Therefore, in these circumstances the 2-FDG LC used to quantify in vivo glucose utilization should not be expected to remain constant. 2-FDG LC variations have been especially significant in tumors, particularly at different stages of cancer development, affecting the accuracy of quantitative glucose measures and potentially limiting the prognostic value of 2-FDG, as well as its accuracy in monitoring treatments. SGLT-mediated glucose transport can be estimated using α-methyl-4-deoxy-4-[18F]fluoro-D-glucopyranoside (Me-4FDG). Utilizing both 2-FDG and Me-4FDG should provide a more complete picture of glucose utilization via both GLUT and SGLT transporters in health and disease stages. Given the widespread use of 2-FDG PET to infer glucose metabolism, appreciating the potential limitations of 2-FDG as a surrogate for glucose metabolic rate and the potential reasons for variability in LC is relevant. Even when the readout for the 2-FDG PET study is only an SUV parameter, variability in LC is important, particularly if it changes over the course of disease progression (e.g., an evolving tumor).




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Quantitative 3D assessment of 68Ga-DOTATOC PET/MRI with diffusion-weighted imaging to assess imaging markers for gastroendopancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: Preliminary results

68Ga-DOTATOC-PET/MRI (68Gallium-DOTATOC-positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging) combines the advantages of PET in the acquisition of metabolic-functional information with the high soft tissue contrast of MRI. Standardized uptake values (SUV) in tumors were suggested as a measure of somatostatin receptor expression. A challenge with receptor ligands is, that the distribution volume is confined to tissues with tracer-uptake, potentially limiting SUV quantification. In this study, different functional, three-dimensional (3D) SUV, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) parameters and arterial tumor enhancement were tested for the characterization of gastroendopancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET). Methods: For this single-center, cross-sectional study, 22 patients with 24 histologically confirmed GEP-NET lesions (15 men/7 women; median, 61 years, range, 43-81 years), who received hybrid 68Ga-DOTA-PET/MRI examinations at 3T between January 2017 and July 2019 met eligibility criteria. SUVs, tumor-to-background ratios (TBR), the total functional tumor volume (TFTV), ADCmean and ADCmin were measured based on volumes of interest (VOI) and examined with receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine cut-off values for differentiation between low and intermediate grade GEP-NET. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients were used to assess correlations between functional imaging parameters. Results: The ratio of PET-derived SUVmean and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)-derived ADCmin was introduced as a combined variable to predict tumor grade, outperforming single predictors. Based on a threshold ratio of 0.03 to be exceeded, tumors could be classified as grade 2 with a sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 100%. SUV and functional ADC values as well as arterial contrast enhancement parameters showed non-significant and mostly negligible correlations. Conclusion: As receptor density and tumor cellularity appear to be independent, potentially complementary phenomena, the combined PET/MRI ratio SUVmean/ADCmin may be used as a novel biomarker, allowing to differentiate between grade 1 and 2 GEP-NET.




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Head to head prospective comparison of quantitative lung scintigraphy and segment counting in predicting pulmonary function of lung cancer patients undergoing video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy

Prediction of post-operative pulmonary function in lung cancer patients before tumor resection is essential for patient selection for surgery and is conventionally done with a non-imaging segment counting method (SC) or a two-dimensional planar lung perfusion scintigraphy (PS). The purpose of this study was to compare quantitative analysis of PS to single photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT) and to estimate the accuracy of SC, PS and SPECT/CT in predicting post-operative pulmonary function in patients undergoing lobectomy. Methods: Seventy-five non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients planned for lobectomy were prospectively enrolled (68% males, average age 68.1±8 years ). All patients completed pre-operative forced expiratory volume capacity (FEV1), diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO), Tc99m-MAA lung perfusion scintigraphy with PS and SPECT/CT quantification. A subgroup of 60 patients underwent video-assisted thoracoscopic (VATS) lobectomy and measurement of post-operative FEV1 and DLCO. Relative uptake of the lung lobes estimated by PS and SPECT/CT were compared. Predicted post-operative FEV1 and DLCO were derived from SC, PS and SPECT/CT. Prediction results were compared between the different methods and the true post-operative measurements in patients who underwent lobectomy. Results: Relative uptake measurements differed significantly between PS and SPECT/CT in right lung lobes, with a mean difference of -8.2±3.8, 18.0±5.0 and -11.5±6.1 for right upper, middle and lower lobes respectively (p<0.001). The differences between the methods in the left lung lobes were minor with a mean difference of -0.4±4.4 (p>0.05) and -2.0±4.0 (p<0.001) for left upper and lower lobes respectively. No significant difference and strong correlation (R=0.6-0.76, p<0.001) were found between predicted post-operative lung function values according to SC, PS, SPECT/CT and the actual post-operative FEV1 and DLCO. Conclusion: Although lobar quantification parameters differed significantly between PS and SPECT/CT, no significant differences were found between the predicted post-operative lung function results derived from these methods and the actual post-operative results. The additional time and effort of SPECT/CT quantification may not have an added value in patient selection for surgery. SPECT/CT may be advantageous in patients planned for right lobectomies but further research is warranted.




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Repeatability of Quantitative 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT Measurements in Metastatic Prostate Cancer.

Quantitative evaluation of radiolabeled Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen (PSMA) PET scans may be used to monitor treatment response in patients with prostate cancer (PCa). To interpret longitudinal differences in PSMA uptake, the intrinsic variability of tracer uptake in PCa lesions needs to be defined. The aim of this study was to investigate the repeatability of quantitative 18F-DCFPyL (a second generation 18F-PSMA-ligand) PET/CT measurements in patients with PCa. Methods: Twelve patients with metastatic PCa were prospectively included, of which 2 were excluded from final analyses. Patients received two whole-body 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT scans (median dose 317 MBq; uptake time 120 min), within median 4 days (range 1-11 days). After semi-automatic (isocontour-based) tumor delineation, the following lesion-based metrics were derived: Tumor-to-Blood ratio (TBRmean, TBRpeak, and TBRmax), Standardized Uptake Value (SUVmean, SUVpeak, SUVmax, normalized to bodyweight), tumor volume, and total lesion tracer uptake (TLU). Additionally, patient-based Total Tumor Volume (sum of PSMA-positive tumor volumes; TTV) and Total Tumor Burden (sum of all lesion TLUs; TTB) were derived. Repeatability was analyzed using repeatability coefficients (RC) and intra-class correlations (ICC). Additionally, the effect of point spread function (PSF) image reconstruction on the repeatability of uptake metrics was evaluated. Results: In total, 36 18F-DCFPyL PET positive lesions were analyzed (up to 5 lesions per patient). RCs of TBRmean, TBRpeak, and TBRmax were 31.8%, 31.7%, and 37.3%, respectively. For SUVmean, SUVpeak, SUVmax the RCs were 24.4%, 25.3% and 31.0%, respectively. All ICC were ≥0.97. Tumor volume delineations were well repeatable, with RC 28.1% for individual lesion volumes and RC 17.0% for TTV. TTB had a RC of 23.2% and 33.4%, when based on SUVmean and TBRmean, respectively. Small lesions (<4.2mL) had worse repeatability for volume measurements. The repeatability of SUVpeak, TLU, and all patient-level metrics were not affected by PSF-reconstruction. Conclusion: 18F-DCFPyL uptake measurements are well repeatable and can be used for clinical validation in future treatment response assessment studies. Patient-based TTV may be preferred for multicenter studies since its repeatability was both high and robust to different image reconstructions.




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11C-(+)-PHNO Trapping Reversibility for Quantitative PET Imaging of Beta-Cell-Mass in Patients with Type-1 Diabetes




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Quantification of PD-L1 expression with [18F]BMS-986192 PET/CT in patients with advanced stage non-small-cell lung cancer

The aim of this work was to quantify the uptake of [18F]BMS-986192, a PD-L1 adnectin PET tracer, in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). To this end, plasma input kinetic modeling of dynamic tumor uptake data with online arterial blood sampling was performed. In addition, the accuracy of simplified uptake metrics such as standardized uptake value (SUV) was investigated. Methods: Data from a study with [18F]BMS-986192 in patients with advanced stage NSCLC eligible for nivolumab treatment were used if a dynamic scan was available and lesions were present in the field of view of the dynamic scan. After injection of [18F]BMS-986192, a 60-minutes dynamic PET-CT scan was started, followed by a 30-min whole body PET-CT scan. Continuous arterial and discrete arterial and venous blood sampling were performed to determine a plasma input function. Tumor time activity curves were fitted by several plasma input kinetic models. Simplified uptake parameters included tumor to blood ratio as well as several SUV measures. Results: Twenty two tumors in nine patients were analyzed. The arterial plasma input single-tissue reversible compartment model with fitted blood volume fraction seems to be the most preferred model as it best fitted 11 out of 18 tumor time activity curves. The distribution volume VT ranged from 0.4 to 4.8 mL·cm-3. Similar values were obtained with an image derived input function. From the simplified measures, SUV normalized for body weight (SUVBW) at 50 and 67 minutes post injection correlated best with VT, with an R2 > 0.9. Conclusion: A single tissue reversible model can be used for the quantification of tumor uptake of the PD-L1 PET tracer [18F]BMS-986192. SUVBW at 60 minutes post injection, normalized for body weight, is an accurate simplified parameter for uptake assessment of baseline studies. In order to assess its predictive value for response evaluation during PD-(L)1 immune checkpoint inhibition further validation of SUV against VT based on an image derived input function is recommended.




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Digital Solid-State SPECT/CT Quantitation of Absolute 177Lu-Radiotracer Concentration: In Vivo/In Vitro Validation

The accuracy of lutetium-177 (177Lu) radiotracer concentration measurements using quantitative clinical software was determined by comparing in vivo results for a digital solid-state cadmium-zinc-telluride SPECT/CT (single photon emission computed tomography / x-ray computed tomography) system to in vitro sampling. First, image acquisition parameters were assessed for an International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) body phantom emulating clinical count rates loaded with a "lung" insert and 6 hot spheres with a 12:1 target-to-background ratio of 177Lu solution. Then, the data of 28 whole-body SPECT/CT scans of 7 patients who underwent 177Lu prostate membrane antigen (177Lu-PSMA) radioligand therapy was retrospectively analyzed. Three users analyzed SPECT/CT images for in vivo urinary bladder radiotracer uptake using quantitative software (Q.Metrix, GE Healthcare). In vitro radiopharmaceutical concentrations were calculated using urine sampling obtained immediately after each scan, scaled to standardized uptake values (SUVs). Any in vivo/in vitro identity relations were determined by linear regression (ideally slope=1, intercept=0), within a 95 % confidence interval (CI). Phantom results demonstrated lower quantitative error for acquisitions using the 113 keV 177Lu energy peak rather than including the 208 keV peak, given that only low-energy collimation was available in this camera configuration. In the clinical study, 24 in vivo/in vitro pairs were eligible for further analysis, having rejected 4 as outliers (via Cook’s distance calculations). All linear regressions (R2 ≥ 0.92, P<0.0001) provided identity in vivo/in vitro relations (95 % CI), with SUV averages from all users giving a slope of 1.03±0.09, an intercept of –0.25±0.64 g/mL, and an average residual difference of 20.4 %. Acquiring with the lower energy 177Lu energy peak, solid-state SPECT/CT imaging provides an accuracy to within ~20 % for in vivo urinary bladder radiotracer concentrations. This non-invasive in vivo quantitation method can potentially improve diagnosis, improve patient management and treatment response assessment, and provide data essential to 177Lu dosimetry.




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Semi-automatically quantified tumor volume using Ga-68-PSMA-11-PET as biomarker for survival in patients with advanced prostate cancer

Prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) targeting Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is becoming the reference standard for prostate cancer (PC) staging, especially in advanced disease. Yet, the implications of PSMA-PET derived whole-body tumor volume for overall survival are poorly elucidated to date. This might be due to the fact that (semi-) automated quantification of whole-body tumor volume as PSMA-PET biomarker is an unmet clinical challenge. Therefore, a novel semi-automated software is proposed and evaluated by the present study, which enables the semi-automated quantification of PSMA-PET biomarkers such as whole-body tumor volume. Methods: The proposed quantification is implemented as a research prototype (MI Whole Body Analysis Suite, v1.0, Siemens Medical Solutions USA, Inc., Knoxville, TN). PSMA accumulating foci were automatically segmented by a percental threshold (50% of local SUVmax). Neural networks were trained to segment organs in PET-CT acquisitions (training CTs: 8,632, validation CTs: 53). Thereby, PSMA foci within organs of physiologic PSMA uptake were semi-automatically excluded from the analysis. Pretherapeutic PSMA-PET-CTs of 40 consecutive patients treated with 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy were evaluated in this analysis. The volumetric whole-body tumor volume (PSMATV50), SUVmax, SUVmean and other whole-body imaging biomarkers were calculated for each patient. Semi-automatically derived results were compared with manual readings in a sub-cohort (by one nuclear medicine physician using syngo.MM Oncology software, Siemens Healthineers, Knoxville, TN). Additionally, an inter-observer evaluation of the semi-automated approach was performed in a sub-cohort (by two nuclear medicine physicians). Results: Manually and semi automatically derived PSMA metrics were highly correlated (PSMATV50: R2=1.000; p<0.001; SUVmax: R2=0.988; p<0.001). The inter-observer agreement of the semi-automated workflow was also high (PSMATV50: R2=1.000; p<0.001; ICC=1.000; SUVmax: R2=0.988; p<0.001; ICC=0.997). PSMATV50 [ml] was a significant predictor of overall survival (HR: 1.004; 95%CI: 1.001-1.006, P = 0.002) and remained so in a multivariate regression including other biomarkers (HR: 1.004; 95%CI: 1.001-1.006 P = 0.004). Conclusion: PSMATV50 is a promising PSMA-PET biomarker that is reproducible and easily quantified by the proposed semi-automated software. Moreover, PSMATV50 is a significant predictor of overall survival in patients with advanced prostate cancer that receive 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy.




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PET imaging quantifying 68Ga-PSMA-11 uptake in metastatic colorectal cancer

At diagnosis 22% of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients have metastases and 50% later develop metastasis. Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) with lutetium-177 (177Lu)-PSMA-617 is employed to treat metastatic prostate cancer (PC). 177Lu-PSMA-617 targets Prostate Specific Membrane Antigen (PSMA) a cell surface protein enriched in PC and the neovasculature of other solid tumors including CRC. We performed gallium-68 (68Ga)-PSMA-11 PET-CT imaging of ten metastatic CRC patients to assess metastasis avidity. Eight patients had lesions lacking avidity and two had solitary metastases exhibiting very low avidity. Despite expression of PSMA in CRC neovasculature, none of the patients exhibited tumor avidity sufficient to be considered for 177Lu-PSMA-617 PRRT.




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Confirmation of 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT (ioflupane) quantification methods in dementia with Lewy body and other neurodegenerative disorders

Rationale: To conduct a retrospective study comparing three 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT quantitative methods in patients with neurodegenerative syndromes as referenced to neuropathological findings. Methods: 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT and neuropathological findings among patients with neurodegenerative syndromes from the Mayo Alzheimer's Disease Research Center and Mayo Clinic Study of Aging were examined. Three 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT quantitative assessment Methods: MIMneuro (MIM Software Inc.), DaTQUANT (GE Healthcare), and manual region of interest (ROI) creation on an Advantage Workstation (GE Healthcare) were compared to neuropathological findings describing the presence or absence of Lewy body disease (LBD). Striatum to background ratios (SBRs) generated by DaTQUANT were compared to the calculated SBRs of the manual method and MIMneuro. The left and right SBRs for caudate, putamen and striatum were evaluated with the manual method. For DaTQUANT and MIMneuro the left, right, total and average SBRs and z-scores for whole striatum, caudate, putamen, anterior putamen, and posterior putamen were calculated. Results: The cohort included 24 patients [20 (83%) male, aged 75.4 +/- 10.0 at death]. The antemortem clinical diagnoses were Alzheimer’s disease dementia (ADem, N = 6), probable dementia with Lewy bodies (pDLB, N = 12), mixed ADem/pDLB (N = 1), Parkinson’s disease with mild cognitive impairment (N = 2), corticobasal syndrome (N = 1), idiopathic rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (iRBD) (N = 1) and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (N = 1). Seventeen (71%) had LBD pathology. All three 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT quantitative methods had area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) values above 0.93 and up to 1.000 (p<0.001) and showed excellent discrimination between LBD and non-LBD patients in each region assessed, p<.001. There was no significant difference between the accuracy of the regions in discriminating the two groups, with good discrimination for both caudate and putamen. Conclusion: All three 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT quantitative methods showed excellent discrimination between LBD and non-LBD patients in each region assessed, using both SBRs and z-scores.




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Mobilizing Multinational Military Operations in Africa: Quick Fixes or Sustainable Solutions?

Research Event

25 October 2019 - 9:30am to 11:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Tony Chafer, University of Portsmouth
Professor Gordon Cumming, Cardiff University
Dr Roel van der Velde, Cardiff University
Ahmed Soliman, Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Chatham House
Dr Elisa Lopez Lucia, Université Libre de Bruxelles; University of Portsmouth
Chair: Janet Adama Mohammed, West Africa Programme Director, Conciliation Resources

Peacekeeping missions which have sought to address evolving forms of conflict and instability on the African continent – led by the United Nations, African Union and European Union – have frequently been overstretched.

Across regions including the Sahel, the Horn and West Africa, the issues of violent extremism and criminality – often set against a backdrop of collapsing or severely weakened central states – have led to the mobilisation of a diverse set of new collective responses.

These include notable African-led efforts such as AMISOM in Somalia or more recently the G5 Sahel, where France have played a pivotal role in initiating new and more ad hoc approaches to coalition-building.

As existing multinational missions in Africa continue to evolve on the ground and while new collective opportunities increasingly present themselves, it is critical for policymakers to understand how far such efforts reflect meaningful long-term solutions to the challenges of conflict and insecurity.

At this roundtable event, participants will reflect on how such missions become mobilised and legitimised, the extent to which they can be defined as ‘new’, and whether they represent a truly sustainable means to tackle the issue of conflict in Africa.

This roundtable is held in partnership with Cardiff University and the University of Portsmouth and is supported by the Leverhulme Trust.

Fergus Kell

Projects Assistant, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3671




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Equatorial Guinea in 2020: Prospects for Economic and Governance Reforms

Research Event

31 January 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Tutu Alicante, Executive Director, EG Justice
Chair: Dr Alex Vines OBE, Managing Director, Ethics, Risk & Resilience; Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Despite boasting one of Africa’s highest GDP per capita rates, much of Equatorial Guinea’s population remain in poverty, with the world’s largest gap between its GDP per capita rates and human development index score. Equatorial Guinea’s economy is highly dependent on oil exports but production is in decline. In December 2019, the IMF Executive Board approved a US$282.8 million three-year Extended Fund Facility loan for Equatorial Guinea with provisions for promoting economic diversification, good governance, increasing transparency and fighting corruption. The country is also seeking to join the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.

At this event, Tutu Alicante will discuss prospects for meaningful reforms in Equatorial Guinea to improve economic governance, human rights and achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660