Ulrike Mayer, Henryk Zähle, Zhou Zhou.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 3, 1891--1911.

Abstract:
We derive a functional weak limit theorem for a local empirical process of a wide class of piece-wise locally stationary (PLS) time series. The latter result is applied to derive the asymptotics of weighted empirical quantiles and weighted V-statistics of non-stationary time series. The class of admissible underlying time series is illustrated by means of PLS linear processes and PLS ARCH processes.

Nina Gantert, Markus Heydenreich, Timo Hirscher.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 2, 1269--1293.

Abstract:
We investigate a model for opinion dynamics, where individuals (modeled by vertices of a graph) hold certain abstract opinions. As time progresses, neighboring individuals interact with each other, and this interaction results in a realignment of opinions closer towards each other. This mechanism triggers formation of consensus among the individuals. Our main focus is on strong consensus (i.e., global agreement of all individuals) versus weak consensus (i.e., local agreement among neighbors). By extending a known model to a more general opinion space, which lacks a “central” opinion acting as a contraction point, we provide an example of an opinion formation process on the one-dimensional lattice $mathbb{Z}$ with weak consensus but no strong consensus.

Giacomo Aletti, Irene Crimaldi, Andrea Ghiglietti.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 2, 1098--1138.

Abstract:
This work deals with a system of interacting reinforced stochastic processes , where each process $X^{j}=(X_{n,j})_{n}$ is located at a vertex $j$ of a finite weighted directed graph, and it can be interpreted as the sequence of “actions” adopted by an agent $j$ of the network. The interaction among the dynamics of these processes depends on the weighted adjacency matrix $W$ associated to the underlying graph: indeed, the probability that an agent $j$ chooses a certain action depends on its personal “inclination” $Z_{n,j}$ and on the inclinations $Z_{n,h}$, with $h eq j$, of the other agents according to the entries of $W$. The best known example of reinforced stochastic process is the Pólya urn. The present paper focuses on the weighted empirical means $N_{n,j}=sum_{k=1}^{n}q_{n,k}X_{k,j}$, since, for example, the current experience is more important than the past one in reinforced learning. Their almost sure synchronization and some central limit theorems in the sense of stable convergence are proven. The new approach with weighted means highlights the key points in proving some recent results for the personal inclinations $Z^{j}=(Z_{n,j})_{n}$ and for the empirical means $overline{X}^{j}=(sum_{k=1}^{n}X_{k,j}/n)_{n}$ given in recent papers (e.g. Aletti, Crimaldi and Ghiglietti (2019), Ann. Appl. Probab. 27 (2017) 3787–3844, Crimaldi et al. Stochastic Process. Appl. 129 (2019) 70–101). In fact, with a more sophisticated decomposition of the considered processes, we can understand how the different convergence rates of the involved stochastic processes combine. From an application point of view, we provide confidence intervals for the common limit inclination of the agents and a test statistics to make inference on the matrix $W$, based on the weighted empirical means. In particular, we answer a research question posed in Aletti, Crimaldi and Ghiglietti (2019).

Nicolas Privault, Grzegorz Serafin.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 587--615.

Abstract:
We derive normal approximation bounds in the Kolmogorov distance for sums of discrete multiple integrals and weighted $U$-statistics made of independent Bernoulli random variables. Such bounds are applied to normal approximation for the renormalized subgraph counts in the Erdős–Rényi random graph. This approach completely solves a long-standing conjecture in the general setting of arbitrary graph counting, while recovering recent results obtained for triangles and improving other bounds in the Wasserstein distance.

Tobias Zwingmann, Hajo Holzmann.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 323--351.

Abstract:
We show weak convergence of quantile and expectile processes to Gaussian limit processes in the space of bounded functions endowed with an appropriate semimetric which is based on the concepts of epi- and hypo- convergence as introduced in A. Bücher, J. Segers and S. Volgushev (2014), ‘ When Uniform Weak Convergence Fails: Empirical Processes for Dependence Functions and Residuals via Epi- and Hypographs ’, Annals of Statistics 42 . We impose assumptions for which it is known that weak convergence with respect to the supremum norm generally fails to hold. For quantiles, we consider stationary observations, where the marginal distribution function is assumed to be strictly increasing and continuous except for finitely many points and to admit strictly positive – possibly infinite – left- and right-sided derivatives. For expectiles, we focus on independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations. Only a finite second moment and continuity at the boundary points but no further smoothness properties of the distribution function are required. We also show consistency of the bootstrap for this mode of convergence in the i.i.d. case for quantiles and expectiles.

Thomson (Family)

Braddock, William, 1798-1869 -- Correspondence.

Siekmann, Francis Heinrich Ernst, 1830-1917.

Names, Personal -- Welsh.

Our Lady of Grace School (Glengowrie, S.A.)

Huppatz (Family).

Sherwell (Family)

Austin-Bergstrom International Airport said it was "aware of an individual that was struck and killed on runway 17-R by a landing aircraft."

The bombastic military parade through Moscow's Red Square on Saturday was slated to be the spectacle of the year on the Kremlin's calendar. Standing with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron, President Vladimir Putin would have overseen a 90-minute procession of Russia's military might, showcasing 15,000 troops and the latest hardware. Now, military jets will roar over an eerily quiet Moscow, spurting red, white and blue smoke to mark 75 years since the defeat of Nazi Germany.

The New York City police department (NYPD) is conducting an internal investigation into a May 2 incident involving the violent arrests of multiple people, allegedly members of a group who were not social distancing

China says it will improve public health systems after criticism of its early response to the virus.

Junhui Cai, Avishai Mandelbaum, Chaitra H. Nagaraja, Haipeng Shen, Linda Zhao.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 4, 669--691.

Abstract:
Statisticians are finding their place in the emerging field of data science. However, many issues considered “new” in data science have long histories in statistics. Examples of using statistical thinking are illustrated, which range from exploratory data analysis to measuring uncertainty to accommodating nonrandom samples. These examples are then applied to service networks, baseball predictions and official statistics.

Gregorio Quintana-Ortí, Amelia Simó.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 236--252.

Abstract:
This paper is focused on kernel regression when the response variable is the shape of a 3D object represented by a configuration matrix of landmarks. Regression methods on this shape space are not trivial because this space has a complex finite-dimensional Riemannian manifold structure (non-Euclidean). Papers about it are scarce in the literature, the majority of them are restricted to the case of a single explanatory variable, and many of them are based on the approximated tangent space. In this paper, there are several methodological innovations. The first one is the adaptation of the general method for kernel regression analysis in manifold-valued data to the three-dimensional case of Kendall’s shape space. The second one is its generalization to the multivariate case and the addressing of the curse-of-dimensionality problem. Finally, we propose bootstrap confidence intervals for prediction. A simulation study is carried out to check the goodness of the procedure, and a comparison with a current approach is performed. Then, it is applied to a 3D database obtained from an anthropometric survey of the Spanish child population with a potential application to online sales of children’s wear.

Ehud Karavani, Tal El-Hay, Yishai Shimoni, Chen Yanover.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 1, 86--89.

Abstract:
Data competitions proved to be highly beneficial to the field of machine learning, and thus expected to provide similar advantages in the field of causal inference. As participants in the 2016 and 2017 Atlantic Causal Inference Conference (ACIC) data competitions and co-organizers of the 2018 competition, we discuss the strengths of simulation-based competitions and suggest potential extensions to address their limitations. These suggested augmentations aim at making the data generating processes more realistic and gradually increase in complexity, allowing thorough investigations of algorithms’ performance. We further outline a community-wide competition framework to evaluate an end-to-end causal inference pipeline, beginning with a causal question and a database, and ending with causal estimates.

London (33 Stillness Rd, London, SE23 1NG) : Cleanair, Campaign for a Smoke-free Environment, [198-?]

London (33 Stillness Rd, London, SE23 1NG) : Cleanair, Campaign for a Smoke-free Environment, [198-?]

London : Cleanair, [1988?]

London (33 Stillness Rd, London, SE23 1NG) : Cleanair, Campaign for a Smoke-free Environment, [198-?]

The rainbow sports bra and leggings set from Splits59 is a must-have for anyone craving a pop of color in their workout wardrobe.

The chic sneaks are part of Zappos' massive Cyber Monday sale.

You can save 50% right now. 

Once you try them, you’ll never want to wear anything else

And it’s on sale at Nordstrom.

This retro style is making a comeback for a reason.

They’re already going out of stock.

And they’re available in 19 fun prints.

Christian Gaser
Oct 8, 2003; 23:9240-9245
BehavioralSystemsCognitive

Jeremy R. Manning
Oct 28, 2009; 29:13613-13620
BehavioralSystemsCognitive

MN Shadlen
Feb 15, 1996; 16:1486-1510
Articles

M Niethammer
Apr 1, 1996; 16:2157-2163
Articles

People have been giving presentations for thousands of years, from Moses with his stone tablets to Elon Musk revealing his grand plans to colonize Mars. While the elements of a great pitchman generally have remained the same over the past 5,000 years -- conviction, charisma, credibility -- today's successful presenters do more than just get in front of an audience and talk.

The U.S. Postal Service recently has been battered by a decline in the number of packages it delivers, partly caused by the coronavirus situation. It reportedly is losing $2 billion each month and will be "illiquid" by Sept. 30. The USPS is chartered to do the hard and often unprofitable work no one else wants to do, but the White House has rejected talk of a bailout for the service.

Based on remarks by Mr Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, Deputy General Manager of the BIS, with Jon Frost and Leonardo Gambacorta at the Santander International Banking Conference on "Banking on trust: Building confidence in the future", Madrid, 5 November 2019.

Investment of cognitive effort is required in everyday life and has received ample attention in recent neurocognitive frameworks. The neural mechanism of effort investment is thought to be structured hierarchically, with dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) at the highest level, recruiting task-specific upstream areas. In the current fMRI study, we tested whether dACC is generally active when effort demand is high across tasks with different stimuli, and whether connectivity between dACC and task-specific areas is increased depending on the task requirements and effort level at hand. For that purpose, a perceptual detection task was administered that required male and female human participants to detect either a face or a house in a noisy image. Effort demand was manipulated by adding little (low effort) or much (high effort) noise to the images. Results showed a network of dACC, anterior insula (AI), and intraparietal sulcus (IPS) to be more active when effort demand was high, independent of the performed task (face or house detection). Importantly, effort demand modulated functional connectivity between dACC and face-responsive or house-responsive perceptual areas, depending on the task at hand. This shows that dACC, AI, and IPS constitute a general effort-responsive network and suggests that the neural implementation of cognitive effort involves dACC-initiated sensitization of task-relevant areas.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Although cognitive effort is generally perceived as aversive, its investment is inevitable when navigating an increasingly complex society. In this study, we demonstrate how the human brain tailors the implementation of effort to the requirements of the task at hand. We show increased effort-related activity in a network of brain areas consisting of dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC), anterior insula, and intraparietal sulcus, independent of task specifics. Crucially, we also show that effort-induced functional connectivity between dACC and task-relevant areas tracks specific task demands. These results demonstrate how brain regions specialized to solve a task may be energized by dACC when effort demand is high.

We will only achieve zero hunger if we speak on behalf of those unable to represent themselves. That was a key message during an event titled “Zero Hunger: are we ready?” at FAO headquarters in Rome, Italy, on Friday, 11 October. “Hungry people have no voice, they are different from all others,” said FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva (pictured, left). “We [...]

Global food security largely depends on smallholder family farms where in many regions of the world women play a crucial role as both producers and providers of food. Studies show that when women and other rural poor have better access to resources, the benefits are far-reaching. Families are healthier, more children attend school, agricultural productivity improves, incomes increase, and rural communities [...]