Zhi-Qiang Wang, Nian-Sheng Tang.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 15, Number 2, 579--604.

Abstract:
Bayesian inference on quantile regression (QR) model with mixed discrete and non-ignorable missing covariates is conducted by reformulating QR model as a hierarchical structure model. A probit regression model is adopted to specify missing covariate mechanism. A hybrid algorithm combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is developed to simultaneously produce Bayesian estimates of unknown parameters and latent variables as well as their corresponding standard errors. Bayesian variable selection method is proposed to recognize significant covariates. A Bayesian local influence procedure is presented to assess the effect of minor perturbations to the data, priors and sampling distributions on posterior quantities of interest. Several simulation studies and an example are presented to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Kurtis Shuler, Marilou Sison-Mangus, Juhee Lee.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 15, Number 2, 559--578.

Abstract:
We propose a Bayesian sparse multivariate regression method to model the relationship between microbe abundance and environmental factors for microbiome data. We model abundance counts of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) with a negative binomial distribution and relate covariates to the counts through regression. Extending conventional nonlocal priors, we construct asymmetric nonlocal priors for regression coefficients to efficiently identify relevant covariates and their effect directions. We build a hierarchical model to facilitate pooling of information across OTUs that produces parsimonious results with improved accuracy. We present simulation studies that compare variable selection performance under the proposed model to those under Bayesian sparse regression models with asymmetric and symmetric local priors and two frequentist models. The simulations show the proposed model identifies important covariates and yields coefficient estimates with favorable accuracy compared with the alternatives. The proposed model is applied to analyze an ocean microbiome dataset collected over time to study the association of harmful algal bloom conditions with microbial communities.

Jeong Eun Lee, Geoff K. Nicholls, Robin J. Ryder.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 4, 1245--1269.

Abstract:
We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets, including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible set for an approximate posterior based on some approximate prior and likelihood. We estimate the realised posterior coverage achieved by the approximate credible set. This is the coverage of the unknown “true” parameter if the data are a realisation of the user’s ideal observation model conditioned on the parameter, and the parameter is a draw from the user’s ideal prior. In one approach we estimate the posterior coverage at the data by making a semi-parametric logistic regression of binary coverage outcomes on simulated data against summary statistics evaluated on simulated data. In another we use Importance Sampling from the approximate posterior, windowing simulated data to fall close to the observed data. We illustrate our methods on four examples.

Sohan Seth, Iain Murray, Christopher K. I. Williams.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 703--725.

Abstract:
Model criticism is usually carried out by assessing if replicated data generated under the fitted model looks similar to the observed data, see e.g. Gelman, Carlin, Stern, and Rubin (2004, p. 165). This paper presents a method for latent variable models by pulling back the data into the space of latent variables, and carrying out model criticism in that space. Making use of a model's structure enables a more direct assessment of the assumptions made in the prior and likelihood. We demonstrate the method with examples of model criticism in latent space applied to factor analysis, linear dynamical systems and Gaussian processes.

Thomas Staudt, Timo Aspelmeier, Oskar Laitenberger, Claudia Geisler, Alexander Egner, Axel Munk.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 35, Number 1, 92--111.

Abstract:
Super-resolution microscopy is rapidly gaining importance as an analytical tool in the life sciences. A compelling feature is the ability to label biological units of interest with fluorescent markers in (living) cells and to observe them with considerably higher resolution than conventional microscopy permits. The images obtained this way, however, lack an absolute intensity scale in terms of numbers of fluorophores observed. In this article, we discuss state of the art methods to count such fluorophores and statistical challenges that come along with it. In particular, we suggest a modeling scheme for time series generated by single-marker-switching (SMS) microscopy that makes it possible to quantify the number of markers in a statistically meaningful manner from the raw data. To this end, we model the entire process of photon generation in the fluorophore, their passage through the microscope, detection and photoelectron amplification in the camera, and extraction of time series from the microscopic images. At the heart of these modeling steps is a careful description of the fluorophore dynamics by a novel hidden Markov model that operates on two timescales (HTMM). Besides the fluorophore number, information about the kinetic transition rates of the fluorophore’s internal states is also inferred during estimation. We comment on computational issues that arise when applying our model to simulated or measured fluorescence traces and illustrate our methodology on simulated data.

Christopher K. Wikle, Jay M. Ver Hoef.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 349--359.

Abstract:
Noel Cressie, FAA is Director of the Centre for Environmental Informatics in the National Institute for Applied Statistics Research Australia (NIASRA) and Distinguished Professor in the School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics at the University of Wollongong, Australia. He is also Adjunct Professor at the University of Missouri (USA), Affiliate of Org 398, Science Data Understanding, at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (USA), and a member of the Science Team for NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite. Cressie was awarded a B.Sc. with First Class Honours in Mathematics in 1972 from the University of Western Australia, and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Statistics in 1973 and 1975, respectively, from Princeton University (USA). Two brief postdoctoral periods followed, at the Centre de Morphologie Mathématique, ENSMP, in Fontainebleau (France) from April 1975–September 1975, and at Imperial College, London (UK) from September 1975–January 1976. His past appointments have been at The Flinders University of South Australia from 1976–1983, at Iowa State University (USA) from 1983–1998, and at The Ohio State University (USA) from 1998–2012. He has authored or co-authored four books and more than 280 papers in peer-reviewed outlets, covering areas that include spatial and spatio-temporal statistics, environmental statistics, empirical-Bayesian and Bayesian methods including sequential design, goodness-of-fit, and remote sensing of the environment. Many of his papers also address important questions in the sciences. Cressie is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science, the American Statistical Association, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and the Spatial Econometrics Association, and he is an Elected Member of the International Statistical Institute. Noel Cressie’s refereed, unrefereed, and other publications are available at: https://niasra.uow.edu.au/cei/people/UOW232444.html.

Georg Lindgren.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 1, 100--128.

Abstract:
We describe and compare how methods based on the classical Rice’s formula for the expected number, and higher moments, of level crossings by a Gaussian process stand up to contemporary numerical methods to accurately deal with crossing related characteristics of the sample paths. We illustrate the relative merits in accuracy and computing time of the Rice moment methods and the exact numerical method, developed since the late 1990s, on three groups of distribution problems, the maximum over a finite interval and the waiting time to first crossing, the length of excursions over a level, and the joint period/amplitude of oscillations. We also treat the notoriously difficult problem of dependence between successive zero crossing distances. The exact solution has been known since at least 2000, but it has remained largely unnoticed outside the ocean science community. Extensive simulation studies illustrate the accuracy of the numerical methods. As a historical introduction an attempt is made to illustrate the relation between Rice’s original formulation and arguments and the exact numerical methods.

London (33 Stillness Road, London SE23 ING) : Cleanair, [198-?]

The reaction on social media has been fierce.

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Italian translation of the BIS Press Release on the presentation of the Annual Report (25 June 2017)

Italian translation of Press Release about BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens giving a speech on "Money in the digital age: what role for central banks?" (6 February 2018)

Italian translation of the Press Release on the pre-release of two special chapters of the Annual Economic Report of the BIS, 17 June 2018. Trust is the missing link in today's cryptocurrencies - Cryptocurrencies' model of generating trust limits their potential to replace conventional money, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) writes in its Annual Economic Report (AER), a new title launched this year.

Italian translation of the BIS press release on the presentation of the Annual Economic Report 2018, 24 June 2018. Le autorità possono fare in modo che l'attuale ripresa economica si mantenga oltre il breve termine avviando riforme strutturali, ridando margine di manovra alle politiche monetarie e di bilancio per affrontare eventuali future minacce, e incoraggiando la pronta attuazione delle riforme regolamentari, scrive la Banca dei Regolamenti Internazionali (BRI) nella sua Relazione economica annuale. ...

French translation of Press Release about BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens giving a speech on "Money in the digital age: what role for central banks?" (6 February 2018)

French translation of "Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms", December 2017.

French translation of the Press Release on the pre-release of two special chapters of the Annual Economic Report of the BIS, 17 June 2018. Trust is the missing link in today's cryptocurrencies - Cryptocurrencies' model of generating trust limits their potential to replace conventional money, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) writes in its Annual Economic Report (AER), a new title launched this year.

French translation of BIS press release on the presentation of the Annual Economic Report 2018, 24 June 2018. Les responsables des politiques publiques peuvent prolonger la phase de croissance actuelle en engageant des réformes structurelles, en restaurant les marges de manoeuvre monétaires et budgétaires pour faire face aux menaces futures et en encourageant une mise en oeuvre rapide des réformes réglementaires, indique la Banque des Règlements Internationaux (BRI) dans son Rapport économique annuel. ...

French translation of speech delivered by Mr Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the BIS, on the occasion of the Bank's Annual General Meeting, Basel, 24 June 2018. Mesdames et Messieurs, j'ai le plaisir de vous présenter aujourd'hui la première édition du Rapport économique annuel de la BRI. Les trois premiers chapitres analysent les évolutions, perspectives et risques de l'économie mondiale, en s'attachant plus particulièrement à la politique monétaire et aux réformes de la réglementation financière, aux marchés et aux acteurs de l'intermédiation. Nous consacrons deux chapitres spéciaux à des enjeux actuels : une analyse des dispositifs macroprudentiels d'une part, une étude relative aux cryptomonnaies d'autre part....

French translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, September 2018

Spanish translation of "Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms", December 2017.

Spanish translation of the Press Release on the pre-release of two special chapters of the Annual Economic Report of the BIS, 17 June 2018. Trust is the missing link in today's cryptocurrencies - Cryptocurrencies' model of generating trust limits their potential to replace conventional money, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) writes in its Annual Economic Report (AER), a new title launched this year.

Spanish translation of the BIS press release on the presentation of the Annual Economic Report 2018, 24 June 2018. Las autoridades pueden prolongar el actual repunte económico más allá del corto plazo aplicando reformas estructurales, reconstruyendo el espacio de las políticas monetaria y fiscal para afrontar futuras amenazas y fomentando una pronta implementación de las reformas reguladoras, sostiene el Banco de Pagos Internacionales (BPI) en su Informe Económico Anual. ...

Spanish translation of press release - the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is finalising stress-testing principles, reviews ways to stop regulatory arbitrage behaviour, agrees on annual G-SIB list, discusses leverage ratio, crypto-assets, market risk framework and implementation, 20 September 2018.

Spanish translation of "Pillar 3 disclosure requirements - updated framework", December 2018

To view more press releases, please visit http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/news.aspx?iid=1024452.

Cracked or broken mobile device screens can be costly to fix, but a few inexpensive DIY strategies can eliminate a repair shop visit and salvage your tablet or phone. It is relatively easy and cheap to replace the glass on a phone once you get the hang of it. Tablets are a bit more involved because of the larger size and added components. Tools might require an additional monetary outlay.

In what could be a trial run for more of the same, Red Hat last week held a first-ever virtual technical summit to spread the word about its latest cloud tech offerings. CEO Paul Cormier welcomed online viewers to the conference, which attracted more than 80,000 virtual attendees. The company made several key announcements during the online gathering and highlighted customer innovations.

Microsoft has introduced a slew of new products, including the Surface Go 2, the Surface Book 3, Surface Headphones 2 and Surface Earbuds. Both the Surface Go 2 and the Surface Book 3 come in consumer and corporate versions. "The two products are very different," noted Rob Enderle, principal analyst at the Enderle Group. "The Go 2 is a high-value product -- the Surface Book 3 high innovation."

In today's evolving business environment, every operational decision is critical -- and that includes best practices for managing the customer journey. The CRM platform is an integral part of the process. In fact, 91 percent of companies with more than 11 employees use a CRM system. Because of the time it saves and the structure CRM delivers, it can seem daunting for businesses to make a switch.

Does your customer relationship management strategy have what it takes to reach Generation Y? It's estimated that by 2021, an additional $394 billion in revenue could be gained from artificial intelligence adoption in CRM activities in the U.S. As companies grow and technology evolves at a faster-than-ever pace, collecting, storing and providing data is becoming a bigger and bigger task.

The enterprise IT environment is complex. Many systems, technologies and practices developed at various times coexist in the same world. With expectations for technological advancements at their peak, we're tasked with enabling these systems to work together harmoniously to support the continuous sharing of information. Systems and data must connect as if all information were native to each.

You can reduce the story of CRM to a lot of things, especially its many component parts. Social networking, cloud computing and analytics are mentioned often. We don't need an exhaustive list, but if we stop there I think we miss a lot. To me CRM isn't about the parts, although like most people following the industry, I get a modicum of joy when a vendor adds something new to the toolbox.