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Today the University of Chicago held its Business Forecast 2005 at the Mansion on Turtle Creek in Dallas. Excellent talks. Prognosticators were:

Robert Z. Aliber Professor of International Economics and Finance Emeritus, Chicago GSB. Director, Center for Studies in International Finance. Formerly Senior Economic Advisor, Agency for Economic Development, U.S. Department of State.

and

Harvey Rosenblum Senior Vice President and Director of Research of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Economic Policy Advisor to the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Associate Economist for the Federal Open Market Committee.

My key notes from Harvey Rosenblum's talk (my key takeaways: be thankful, be wary):

• Shocks that happened since the late 90s - surprised they haven't sent us into a deep depression
• Y2K overspending and then drop in spending
• Loss of wealth due to stock market crash
• 2001 World Trade Center
• 2001 Corporate scandals (Enron, MCI, etc.) drove up cost of capital
• Sarbanes-Oxley caused unintended consequences where all public companies now have to bear significant costs of implementing S-O compliance, etc. where only 2% of public companies may have problems
• Iraq war
• It is surprising we (United States) are not in a depression
• Credits attributed to good monetary policy and fiscal policy
• Additionally deregulation has provided the US markets with flexibility to weather these shocks
• Growth 3-4%, inflation low, unemployment dropping
• President Bush, while Time's Man of the Year, didn't get enough credit for just in time fiscal policy
• Long bond rate "conundrum" exists, but the economy appears to be in a zone of price stability
• Interest yield curves are flat, but history shows that if these tip then 1 year after that there will be a recession
• Need to watch yield curve. Some concern if Fed follows historical raise rate policies there will be problems.

My key notes from Robert Aliber's talk (my key takeaways: international policy is biggest issue, trade deficit bigger concern than budget deficit, international shocks translate into the United States importing issues as the trade deficit):

• $600 billion hole is trade deficit
• 25 year slide of US dollar against Yen & Swiss (which basically means Europe)
• Thus, we have sharp slide of dollar yet the trade deficit is increasing?? (rarely happens)
• Perspective on why this is happening. When financial crisis occurs in other countries, it shows up as an import to our trade deficit (i.e., our deficit grows)
• China's investment boom slowing because of evergreen finance (essentially loans being made, accruing interest, but funny money since no one is paying interest)
• Going to be a problem in the future.
• Turning back to international trade as a whole (not specific to China), the asset price bubble may burst if US puts in import controls.
• Housing market may have some issues. Did we see the Las Vegas numbers?

One question I had in my mind after this talk was that I understood venture capitalists in the States to be eager to do deals in China. That said, given what I heard today, I would be wary of the propsect of things going south for investments in China in a timeframe that would be shorter than the investment horizon of a VC.

Steve Shu
Managing Director
S4 Management Group
Email: sshu@s4management.com
Web: http://www.s4management.com

Bacon, Francis, Lord Verulam, and Viscount St. Alban's, philosopher and statesman, was the youngest son of Sir Nicholas Bacon, Lord Keeper, by his second wife, a daughter of Sir Anthony Cooke, whose sister married William Cecil, Lord Burghley, the great minister of Queen Elizabeth. He was born at York House in the Strand on Jan. 22, 1561, and in his 13th year was sent with his elder brother Anthony to Trinity College, Cambridge. Here he first met the Queen, who was impressed by his precocious intellect, and was accustomed to call him "the young Lord Keeper." Here also he became dissatisfied with the Aristotelian philosophy as being unfruitful and leading only to resultless disputation. -- In 1576 he entered Gray's Inn, and in the same year joined the embassy of Sir Amyas Paulet to France, where he remained until 1579. The death of his father in that year, before he had completed an intended provision for him, gave an adverse turn to his fortunes, and rendered it necessary that he should decide upon a profession. He accordingly returned to Gray's Inn, and, after an unsuccessful attempt to induce Burghley to give him a post at court, and thus enable him to devote himself to a life of learning, he gave himself seriously to the study of law, and was called to the Bar in 1582. He did not, however, desert philosophy, and published a Latin tract, Temporis Partus Maximus (the Greatest Birth of Time), the first rough draft of his own system. -- Two years later, in 1584, he entered the House of Commons as member for Melcombe, sitting subsequently for Taunton (1586), Liverpool (1589), Middlesex (1593), and Southampton (1597). In the Parliament of 1586 he took a prominent part in urging the execution of Mary Queen of Scots. About this time he seems again to have approached his powerful uncle, the result of which may possibly be traced in his rapid progress at the Bar, and in his receiving, in 1589, the reversion to the Clerkship of the Star Chamber, a valuable appointment, into the enjoyment of which, however, he did not enter until 1608. -- About 1591 he formed a friendship with the Earl of Essex, from whom he received many tokens of kindness ill requited. In 1593 the offices of Attorney-general, and subsequently of Solicitor-general became vacant, and Essex used his influence on Bacon's behalf, but unsuccessfully, the former being given to Coke, the famous lawyer. These disappointments may have been owing to a speech made by Bacon on a question of subsidies. To console him for them Essex presented him with a property at Twickenham, which he subsequently sold for £1800, equivalent to a much larger sum now. -- In 1596 he was made a Queen's Counsel, but missed the appointment of Master of the Rolls, and in the next year (1597), he published the first edition of his Essays, ten in number, combined with Sarced Meditations and the Coulours of Good and Evil. By 1601 Essex had lost the Queen's favour, and had raised his rebellion, and Bacon was one of those appointed to investigate the charges against him, and examine witnesess, in connection with which he showed an ungrateful and indecent eagerness in pressing the case against his former friend and benefactor, who was executed on Feb. 25, 1601. This act Bacon endeavoured to justify in A Declaration of the Practices and Treasons, etc., of...the Earl of Essex, etc. His circumstances had for some time been bad, and he had been arrested for debt: he had, however, received a gift of a fine of £1200 on one of Essex's accomplices. -- The accession of James VI in 1603 gave a favourable turn to his fortunes: he was knighted, and endeavoured to set himself right with the new powers by writing his Apologie (defence) of his proceedings in the case of Essex, who had favoured the succession of James. In the first Parliament of the new king he sat for St. Alban's, and was appointed a Commissioner for Union with Scotland. In 1605 he published The Advancement of Learning, dedicated, with fulsome flattery, to the king. The following year he married Alice Barnham, the daughter of a London merchant, and in 1607 he was made Solicitor-General, and wrote Cogita et Visa, a first sketch of the Novum Organum, followed in 1609 by The Wisdom of the Ancients. -- Meanwhile (in 1608), he had entered upon the Clerkship of the Star Chamber, and was in the enjoyment of a large income; but old debts and present extravagance kept him embarrassed, and he endeavoured to obtain further promotion and wealth by supporting the king in his arbitrary policy. In 1613 he became Attorney-General, and in this capacity prosecuted Somerset in 1616. The year 1618 saw him Lord Keeper, and the next Lord Chancellor and Baron Verulam, a title which, in 1621, he exchanged for that of Viscount St. Albans. Meanwhile he had written the New Atlantis, a political romance, and in 1620 he presented to the king the Novum Organum, on which he had been engaged for 30 years, and which ultimately formed the main part of the Instauratio Magna. -- In his great office Bacon showed a failure of character in striking contrast with the majesty of his intellect. He was corrupt alike politically and judicially, and now the hour of retribution arrived. In 1621 a Parliamentary Committee on the administration of the law charged him with corruption under 23 counts; and so clear was the evidence that he made no attempt at defence. To the lords, who sent a committee to inquire whether the confession was really his, he replied, "My lords, it is my act, my hand, and my heart; I beseech your lordships to be merciful to a broken reed." He was sentenced to a fine of £40,000, remitted by the king, to be committed to the Tower during the king's pleasure (which was that he should be released in a few days), and to be incapable of holding office or sitting in parliament. He narrowly escaped being deprived of his titles. -- Thenceforth he devoted himself to study and writing. In 1622 appeared his History of Henry VII, and the 3rd part of the Instauratio; in 1623, History of Life and Death, the De Augmentis Scientarum, a Latin translation of the Advancement, and in 1625 the 3rd edition of the Essays, now 58 in number. He also published Apophthegms, and a translation of some of the Psalms. -- His life was now approaching its close. In March, 1626, he came to London, and shortly after, when driving on a snowy day, the idea struck him of making an experiment as to the antiseptic properties of snow, in consequence of which he caught a chill, which ended in his death on 9th April 1626. He left debts to the amount of £22,000. At the time of his death he was engaged upon Sylva Sylvarum. -- The intellect of Bacon was one of the most powerful and searching ever possessed by man, and his developments of the inductive philosophy revolutionised the future thought of the human race.

Spendthrift [primarily on things not directly benefiting or advancing the Christian message and Gospel of Jesus Christ]: Leo's lively interest in art and literature, to say nothing of his natural liberality, his alleged nepotism, his political ambitions and necessities, and his immoderate personal luxury, exhausted within two years the hard savings of [Pope] Julius II, and precipitated a financial crisis from which he never emerged and which was a direct cause of most of what, from a papal point of view, were calamities of his pontificate. -- He sold cardinals' hats. He sold membership in the "Knights of Peter". He borrowed large sums from bankers, curials, princes and Jews. The Venetian ambassador Gradenigo estimated the paying number of offices on Leo's death at 2,150, with a capital value of nearly 3,000,000 ducats (about 132 million dollars in 2010 dollars) and a yearly income of 328,000 ducats ($14,432,000.00). -- The ordinary income of the pope for the year 1517 had been reckoned at about 580,000 ducats ($2,552,000.00) [around $44 each ducat coin in 2010 dollars], of which 420,000 came from the States of the Church, 100,000 from annates, and 60,000 from the composition tax instituted by Sixtus IV. These sums, together with the *considerable amounts accruing from indulgences, jubilees, and special fees, *vanished as quickly as they were received. Then the pope resorted to pawning palace furniture, table plate, jewels, even statues of the apostles. Several banking firms and many individual creditors were ruined by the death of Leo.

Thomas is held in the Catholic Church to be the model teacher for those studying for the priesthood. The works for which he is best-known are the Summa Theologica and the Summa Contra Gentiles. As one of the 33 Doctors of the Church, he is considered the Church's greatest theologian and philosopher. Pope Benedict XV declared: "This (Dominican) Order ... acquired new luster when the Church declared the teaching of Thomas to be her own and that Doctor, honored with the special praises of the Pontiffs, the master and patron of Catholic schools."

In England, the introduction of family names is generally attributed to the Normans and the Domesday Book of 1086. Documents indicate that surnames were first adopted among the feudal nobility and gentry, and only slowly spread to the other parts of society. Some of the early Norman nobility arriving in England during the Norman Conquest differentiated themselves by affixing 'de' (of) in front of the name of their village in France. This is what is known as a territorial surname, a consequence of feudal landownership. In medieval times in France, such a name indicated lordship, or ownership, of the village. But some early Norman nobles in England chose to drop the French derivations and call themselves instead after their new English holdings. -- True surnames, in the sense of hereditary appellations, date in England from about the year 1000. Largely they were introduced from Normandy, although there are records of Saxon, surnames prior to the Norman Conquest. By the end of the twelfth century hereditary names had become common in England. But even as late as 1465 they were not universal. During the reign of Edward V (between April and June, 1483) a law was passed to compel certain Irish to adopt surnames as **a method to track and control them more: "They shall take unto them a Surname, either of some Town, or some Colour, as Black or Brown, or some Art or Science, as Smyth or Carpenter, or some Office, as Cooke or Butler." (ramsdale.org/surname.htm)

Life: Little is known of the life of Dionysius, and what is known is from Eusebius Pamphilius and text fragments from his letters. It is clear Dionysius was held in high esteem as a writer of letters by the second century churches, not only from Eusebius' statement, but also from the fact that heretics thought it worthwhile to circulate interpolated and mutilated copies of his letters. That he wrote epistles to churches so widely scattered shows that he possessed a widely held reputation. Most of these letter are no longer extant. -- Dionysius can be dated to the second half of the second century from the dating of his letters to noted Christians of the time, such as to the Bishop of Rome Soter who served from about 167 to 175, a period of service overlapping that of Dionysius. -- Eusebius knew of a collection of seven Catholic Epistles by Dionysius, a letter to him from Bishop Pinytus of Knossus, a private letter of spiritual advice to a lady named Chrysophora, who had written to him, and his letter to Bp. Soter. In his letter to Bp. Soter, Dionysius lauds the practice of the Church of Rome for its practice of sending alms and gifts for the needy to churches in many cities. In a letter to Nicomedia, Bp. Dionysius praises the Nicomedians for their standing fast in the truth and condemnation of the heresy of Maricion of Sinope that was active in his day. The date and cause of Dionysius' death is unknown. He reposed [retired] before the year 199 A.D. While traditionally Dionysius has been held by some in the Eastern Church to be a martyr, there is no historical foundation for his martyrdom.

Douglas Hamp is a specialist in ancient languages including Biblical Hebrew and Koine Greek. Doug says something ominous is coming upon the world: it is Satan's final effort in the battle to destroy the image that man was created in, which has been raging since the beginning of time. If Satan can destroy the image, then he can avert his own destruction. The prophecy of Genesis 3:15 states the serpent will one day mix his seed with humanity as a counterfeit of the Messiah. Jesus told us that the last days will be like the days of Noah when fallen angels mixed their seed with humanity. In the Book of Daniel we read that "they" will again mingle with the seed of men. How so? Satan will use man's desire to be his own god to deceive him into believing the ultimate lie - that his fallen messengers are both the creators and saviors of man. He will not do this openly but will deceive mankind through demons which are masquerading as "aliens" who are spreading the message that the inhabitants of the earth can evolve to be like them and obtain transcendent powers. Finally, the seed of the Serpent will come; he will be a man who will be greater than his fellows, who will understand sinister schemes and shall rise up and become the Antichrist. That day of fulfillment is nearly upon us!

Christian apologist and talk show host Chris Rosebrough (Fighting For The Faith) was recently the featured guest on Stand Up For The Truth radio show. From the Stand Up For The Truth website: "We know that the God of the Bible is not the same god of the Qur'an. Yahweh of the Bible became flesh 2,000 years ago to be that perfect lamb, the Son, the atonement for our sins. The Jesus we believe in is God. But Allah of the Qur'an did not have a son. There was no atonement, no hope of a Messiah, and no grace for sinners. The Christian God and the Muslim Allah cannot be one and the same. And yet there are a growing number of Christians and Muslims who are combining the faith-syncretizing the two into one. That's called Chrislam, and it is heresy. -- This week the Orange County Register reported in an article that leadership of Pastor Rick Warren's Saddleback Church believe that Muslims and Christians believe in the same God. Is the article accurate? Is that truly what these leaders believe? Our guest today has communicated with Rick Warren twice in the past few days, and it's as close as anyone has gotten to America's Pastor to hear in his own words what is going on. -- Chris Rosebrough is host of a daily two-hour internet radio program, Fighting For The Faith, heard around the world on Pirate Christian Radio, a broadcast group he started in his hometown of Indianapolis. Chris is at the forefront of those contending for the truth of God's Word."

By R. SCOTT MOXLEY Thursday, Apr 14 2011: Legendary Garden Grove televangelist Robert H. Schuller once noted, "High achievers spot rich opportunities swiftly." The creator of Crystal Cathedral, a best-selling author and star of Hour of Power broadcasts, Schuller has long served as Exhibit A of that credo. In the 1950s, he saw an opportunity to build a profitable church, grabbed it and-thanks largely to donations from poor and lower-middle-class folks trying to win the blessings of God-created an $89-million religious empire with hints of opulence. ... Records also show that the reverend wasn't a cheapskate in one charity case. Indeed, the recipients of his generosity weren't poor at all. They were a wealthy Newport Beach couple, Kenneth and Glenia Reafsnyder. Ken's first wife was a member of Buena Park's Knott family, founders of Knott's Berry Farm. He also palled around with actor John Wayne. In 1995, Schuller agreed to divert $4,000 a month in church donations to the Reafsnyders for the rest of their lives in exchange for a quarter ownership in the couple's home. Ken has since died, but the deal calls on Crystal Cathedral Ministries to continue to pay Glenia. In 2008, the ministry increased the payments to $4,500 a month while reducing its ownership percentage. This means that the church's current 8.5 percent portion of the house has cost more than $1,250,000-$55,000 more than the value of the entire house. Speaking of houses, over the years the Schuller family has purchased oceanfront property in Orange County, a Big Bear vacation house, a San Diego County time-share, a Colorado mansion and a Honolulu condo. Just before filing for bankruptcy, Schuller sold a San Juan Capistrano property that had been bequeathed to the church decades ago and pocketed $22.5 million. The reverend's son, Robert Anthony Schuller, has lived in a $2.2-million oceanfront Laguna Beach dream house worthy of an Architectural Digest feature. Fred Southard, a longtime Schuller aide, lives behind palatial, guarded gates in a 13-room, 13,600-square-foot Newport Coast estate that could fetch $3 million on the open market. ... In court filings, they've remained optimistic that, despite a 50-percent drop in church membership to 5,000 attendees, the ministry can eventually pay off all of the debt. To accomplish that feat, however, the Schuller clan is going to have to stir up the congregation and then, despite all the unsettling revelations, ask them to dig deeper into their wallets.

I am heading back to Las Vegas. It’s the first time since late January 2020 that I have visited and my first time without being a part of Affiliate Summit. From 2005 through 2020, I was in Las Vegas every year, sometimes multiple times. But this time it is different. I am going to have […]

The post Back to Las Vegas For The First Time Since 2020 appeared first on Shawn Collins' Blog.

Hats off to Louis Gerbarg on his excellent write-up of how a Flash chip manages reads, writes, and most interestingly – deletes.  I have a relatively comprehensive understanding of how file systems work from classes back at CMU.  But back when I was taking those classes, Flash storage was basically non-existent in a file system [...]

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A union representing Post Office staff has lashed out at proposals that could result in 115 branch closures and significantly more than 1,000 workers losing their jobs, by describing them as "immoral".

Some people in Spain appear to have covered their cars in plastic wrap ahead of another approaching storm.

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The length of time that a cell phone battery lasts depends on a variety of things. Battery life can be influenced by the type of the cell phone, the type battery, the age of the battery, the applications being used on the phone, even the temperature where the phone is stored and used can impact battery life.

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I think both in fictional movies and documentaries, when airplane trouble happens when a musical act is one of the passengers on the plane, the comedy to diffuse the tension is palpable, whether it is a tribute to "The Night the Music Died" when the Big Bopper, Richie Valens and Buddy Holly passed, or when members of Lynyrd Skynrd died in a 1977 plane crash. Neverthless, I'll Never Forget You attempts to put some emotion into the tragic event.

The film is based on the novel by Gene Odom, friend of singer Ronnie Van Zandt and who wrote the book that serves as the foundation for the film. In it, he, along with others that survived the crash (backup singer Leslie Hawkins and guitar roadie Craig Reed) as they share their thoughts on the crash and offer some thoughts on the days and hours leading up to the tragic events.

So when it comes to the film itself, the sto...Read the entire review

El emblemático convento de la Inmaculada Concepción de Ciudad Real, conocido como el convento de las Terreras, se prepara para una transformación significativa que lo convertirá en un centro de interpretación dedicado a la gastronomía manchega. Esta ambiciosa iniciativa, que busca revitalizar el patrimonio cultural de la ciudad, cuenta con una inversión de 1,5 millones […]

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