story History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: May 3, 2020 May 3, 2020“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.” And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana. Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped? Or U-shaped? If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession. As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939. As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period. Full Article
story This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 24, 2020 Apr 24, 2020Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars. Full Article
story History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: May 3, 2020 May 3, 2020“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.” And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana. Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped? Or U-shaped? If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession. As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939. As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period. Full Article
story Trump Turned the Death Count Into a Story About Himself By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: May 7, 2020 May 7, 2020Official figures exclude thousands who have died during the pandemic. To draw the right lessons, the United States needs an accurate tally of the victims. Full Article
story Leaving all to younger hands: Why the history of the women’s suffragist movement matters By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 11:30:00 +0000 The campaign to win passage of the 19th Amendment guaranteeing women the right to vote stands as one of the most significant and wide-ranging moments of political mobilization in all of American history. Among other outcomes, it produced the largest one-time increase in voters ever. As important as the goal of suffrage was, the struggle… Full Article
story Women warriors: The ongoing story of integrating and diversifying the American armed forces By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 11:50:00 +0000 How have the experiences, representation, and recognition of women in the military transformed, a century after the ratification of the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution? As Brookings President and retired Marine Corps General John Allen has pointed out, at times, the U.S. military has been one of America’s most progressive institutions, as with racial… Full Article
story History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: May 3, 2020 May 3, 2020“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.” And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana. Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped? Or U-shaped? If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession. As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939. As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period. Full Article
story This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 24, 2020 Apr 24, 2020Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars. Full Article
story Trump Turned the Death Count Into a Story About Himself By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: May 7, 2020 May 7, 2020Official figures exclude thousands who have died during the pandemic. To draw the right lessons, the United States needs an accurate tally of the victims. Full Article
story Leaving all to younger hands: Why the history of the women’s suffragist movement matters By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 11:30:00 +0000 The campaign to win passage of the 19th Amendment guaranteeing women the right to vote stands as one of the most significant and wide-ranging moments of political mobilization in all of American history. Among other outcomes, it produced the largest one-time increase in voters ever. As important as the goal of suffrage was, the struggle… Full Article
story This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 24, 2020 Apr 24, 2020Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars. Full Article
story Trump Turned the Death Count Into a Story About Himself By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: May 7, 2020 May 7, 2020Official figures exclude thousands who have died during the pandemic. To draw the right lessons, the United States needs an accurate tally of the victims. Full Article
story This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 24, 2020 Apr 24, 2020Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars. Full Article
story Hutchins Roundup: Consumer spending, salary history bans, and more. By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 15:42:07 +0000 Studies in this week’s Hutchins Roundup find that consumer spending has fallen sharply because of COVID-19, salary history bans have increased women’s earnings relative to men’s, and more. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup as an email? Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Thursday. Consumer spending falls sharply because of COVID-19… Full Article
story This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Apr 24, 2020 Apr 24, 2020Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars. Full Article
story Women warriors: The ongoing story of integrating and diversifying the American armed forces By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 11:50:00 +0000 How have the experiences, representation, and recognition of women in the military transformed, a century after the ratification of the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution? As Brookings President and retired Marine Corps General John Allen has pointed out, at times, the U.S. military has been one of America’s most progressive institutions, as with racial… Full Article
story Leaving all to younger hands: Why the history of the women’s suffragist movement matters By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 11:30:00 +0000 The campaign to win passage of the 19th Amendment guaranteeing women the right to vote stands as one of the most significant and wide-ranging moments of political mobilization in all of American history. Among other outcomes, it produced the largest one-time increase in voters ever. As important as the goal of suffrage was, the struggle… Full Article
story CHART: A Recent History of Senate Cloture Votes Taken To End Filibusters By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 21 Nov 2013 12:01:00 -0500 UPDATE: Sarah Binder writes that "this is big" in a new post on Monkey Cage blog, "Boom! What the Senate will be like when the nuclear dust settles." Sen. Harry Reid has gone ahead with the so-called "nuclear option" to attempt to change Senate filibuster rules on some executive branch nominations, passing the rule change with a 52-48 vote. In their Vital Statistics on Congress report, Brookings Senior Fellow Thomas Mann and AEI Resident Scholar Norman Ornstein provide data on the number of attempted Senate cloture votes taken from 1979 to 2012, the 96th to 112th Congresses. The chart below demonstrates the average attempted cloture vote taken by party when that party was in the minority. For more data on both attempted and successful cloture votes sine 1919, look up table 6-7 in Vital Stats (PDF). Senior Fellow Sarah Binder, a leading expert on Congress and congressional history who called, in 2010, the Senate filibuster a "mistake," offered a recent analysis of Senate cloture votes, writing that "Counting cloture votes remains an imperfect — but still valid — method of capturing minority efforts to block the Senate." More recently, Binder wondered whether "Democrats have the guts to go there and, if so, whether that compels any Republicans to stand down." Authors Fred Dews Full Article
story Venezuela refugee crisis to become the largest and most underfunded in modern history By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 09 Dec 2019 20:51:31 +0000 The Venezuelan refugee crisis is just about to surpass the scale of the Syrian crisis. As 2019 comes to a close, four years since the start of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis, 4.6 million Venezuelans have fled the country, about 16 percent of the population. The figure is strikingly similar to the 4.8 million people that… Full Article
story Understanding Ghana’s growth success story and job creation challenges By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 07 Jun 2016 11:50:00 -0400 Ghana attained middle-income status after rebasing its National Accounts, pushing per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of the country above $1,000 in 2007. After recovering from economic recession in 1984 on account of the Bretton Woods sponsored economic reform introduced at that time, Ghana’s growth has been remarkably strong, with its lowest economic growth of 3.3 percent recorded in 1994. The country’s growth rate reached its peak of 15 percent in 2011 on the back of the commencement of commercial production of oil, making it one of the fastest growing economies globally during that year. This has translated into increased per capita income, which reached a high of about $1,900 in 2013. The concern, however, has been the ability of the country to sustain this growth momentum given the level and quality of education and skills, and, more importantly, the failure of this strong growth performance to be translated into the creation of productive and decent jobs, improved incomes and livelihoods. The structure of the economy remains highly informal, with a shift in the country’s national output composition from agriculture to low-value service activities in the informal sector. The commencement of commercial production of oil raised the share of the industrial sector in national output. However, the continuous decline in manufacturing value added undermines Ghana’s economic transformation effort to promote high and secure incomes and improve the livelihoods of the people. Structural change towards higher value added sectors, and upgrading of technologies in existing sectors, is expected to allow for better conditions of work, better jobs, and higher wages. But the low level and quality of human resources not only diverts the economy from its structural transformation path of development but also makes it difficult for the benefits of growth to be spread through the creation of gainful and productive employment. Thus, productive structural economic transformation hinges on the level and quality of education and labor skills. A highly skilled, innovative and knowledgeable workforce constitutes a key ingredient in the process of structural economic transformation, and as productive sectors apply more complex production technologies and research and development activities increase the demand for education and skills. However, the observed weak human capital base does not provide a strong foundation for structural economic transformation of Ghana. Ghana’s employment growth lags behind economic growth, with an estimated employment elasticity of output of 0.47, suggesting that every 1 percent of annual economic growth yields 0.47 percent growth of total employment. There is also widespread concern about the quality of the country’s growth in terms of employment and inequality, as well as general improvement in the livelihood of the people (see Alagidede et al. 2013; Aryeetey et al. 2014; Baah-Boateng 2013). A key indicator for measuring the extent to which macroeconomic growth results in gains in the welfare of the citizenry is the quality of jobs that the economy generates. Ghana’s employment growth lags behind economic growth, with an estimated employment elasticity of output of 0.47 (see Baah-Boateng 2013), suggesting that every 1 percent of annual economic growth yields 0.47 percent growth of total employment. Besides the slow rate of job creation is the dominance of vulnerable employment and the working poverty rate in the labor market. In 2010, 7 out of 10 jobs were estimated to be vulnerable while only 1 out of 5 jobs could be considered as productive jobs that meet the standard of decent work (Baah-Boateng and Ewusi 2013). Workers in vulnerable employment tend to lack formal work arrangements as well as elements associated with decent employment such as adequate social security and recourse to effective social dialogue mechanisms (Sparreboom and Baah-Boateng 2011). The working poverty rate remains a challenge with one out of every five persons employed belonging to poor households. The article seeks to provide an analytical assessment of Ghana’s economic growth as one of Africa’s growth giants over a period of more than two decades and the implication for labour market and livelihood outcomes. Growth of labor productivity at the national and sectoral level is examined, as well as the sectoral contribution to aggregate productivity growth. The article also analyses the effect of growth on employment and the employment-poverty linkage in terms of elasticity within the growth-employment-poverty nexus in Ghana. It also delves into a discussion of the constraints on growth and productive employment from both demand and supply perspectives, and identifies skills gaps and the opportunities offered in the country, which has experienced strong growth performance. The article has five sections, with an overview of Ghana’s economic growth performance in Section 2, after this introductory section. This is followed by an overview of the developments in the labor market, specifically in the area of employment, unemployment, poverty, and inequality in Ghana in Section 3. The growth-employment-poverty linkage analysis is carried out in Section 4 followed by a discussion of constraints to growth and employment generation in Section 5. Section 6 provides a summary and conclusion, with some policy suggestions for the future. Downloads Download the full paper (PDF) Authors Ernest AryeeteyWilliam Baah-Boaten Full Article
story The prince of counterterrorism: The story of Washington’s favorite Saudi, Muhammad bin Nayef By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 29 Sep 2015 14:08:37 +0000 The kingdom of Saudi Arabia, America’s oldest ally in the Middle East, is on the verge of a historic generational change in leadership. King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, 79, who ascended to the throne in January, following the death of King Abdullah, will be the last of the generation of leaders who built the… Full Article
story Why Europe’s energy policy has been a strategic success story By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 For Europe, it has been a rough year, or perhaps more accurately a rough decade. However, we must not lose sight of the key structural advantages—and the important policy successes—that have brought Europe where it is today. For example, Europe’s recent progress in energy policy has been significant—good not only for economic and energy resilience, but also for NATO's collective handling of the revanchist Russia threat. Full Article Uncategorized
story Women warriors: The ongoing story of integrating and diversifying the American armed forces By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 11:50:00 +0000 How have the experiences, representation, and recognition of women in the military transformed, a century after the ratification of the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution? As Brookings President and retired Marine Corps General John Allen has pointed out, at times, the U.S. military has been one of America’s most progressive institutions, as with racial… Full Article
story Lessons of history, law, and public opinion for AI development By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 22 Nov 2019 13:24:40 +0000 Artificial intelligence is not the first technology to concern consumers. Over time, many innovations have frightened users and led to calls for major regulation or restrictions. Inventions such as the telegraph, television, and robots have generated everything from skepticism to outright fear. As AI technology advances, how should we evaluate AI? What measures should be… Full Article
story Land, Money, Story: Terrorism’s Toxic Combination By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 Full Article
story Mitt Romney changed the impeachment story, all by himself. Here are 3 reasons that matters. By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 06 Feb 2020 16:36:56 +0000 Full Article
story Saria’s story: Life as a Syrian refugee By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 17 Nov 2017 15:18:01 +0000 The international refugee crisis is one of the defining political issues of our time. Haunting images—a father passing his infant between barbed wire, a stunned and bloodied five-year-old Omran—have offered powerful proof of the human cost of this crisis. As an amateur photographer, Saria Samakie—himself a Syrian refugee—understands the power of such images and of… Full Article
story Hutchins Roundup: Consumer spending, salary history bans, and more. By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 15:42:07 +0000 Studies in this week’s Hutchins Roundup find that consumer spending has fallen sharply because of COVID-19, salary history bans have increased women’s earnings relative to men’s, and more. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup as an email? Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Thursday. Consumer spending falls sharply because of COVID-19… Full Article
story Beyond great forces: How individuals still shape history By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 15 Oct 2019 19:09:44 +0000 Full Article
story Why Europe’s energy policy has been a strategic success story By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 02 May 2016 11:15:00 -0400 For Europe, it has been a rough year, or perhaps more accurately a rough decade. The terrorist attacks in London, Madrid, and elsewhere have taken a toll, as did the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. But things really got tough beginning with the Great Recession—and its prolonged duration for Europe, including grave economic crises in much of the southern part of the continent. That was followed by Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, as well as the intensification of the Syrian, Libyan, and Yemeni conflicts with their tragic human consequences, including massive displacement of people and the greatest flow of refugees since World War II. The recent attacks in Paris and Brussels have added to the gloom and fear. This recent history, together with the advent of nationalistic and inward-looking policies in virtually all European Union member states, makes it easy to get despondent—and worry that the entire European project is failing. To be sure, these are not the best of times. Europe is perceived by some, including Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, as failing to invest enough in its own security, since NATO allies spend less than 1.4 percent of GDP on their armed forces while the United States spends twice that. However, we must not lose sight of the key structural advantages—and the important policy successes—that have brought Europe where it is today. For example, Europe’s recent progress in energy policy has been significant—good not only for economic and energy resilience, but also for NATO's collective handling of the revanchist Russia threat. [W]e must not lose sight of the key structural advantages—and the important policy successes—that have brought Europe where it is today. For many years, analysts and policymakers have debated the question of Europe's dependence on natural gas from Russia. Today, this problem is largely solved. Russia provides only one-third of Europe’s gas. Importantly, Europe’s internal infrastructure for transporting natural gas in all desired directions has improved greatly. So have its available storage options, as well as its possibilities to import alternatives either by pipeline or in the form of liquefied natural gas. As a result, almost all member states are currently well-positioned to withstand even a worst-case scenario. Indeed, European Commission analyses show that even a multi-month long supply disruption could be addressed, albeit at real economic cost, by diversification and fuel switching. Progress in energy efficiency and renewable energy investments also help. There is more to do to enhance European energy security, but much has been done already. The Europeans have shown that, with ups and downs, they can address energy security themselves. Already this energy success has contributed to a strategic success. Europe has been heavily criticized for not standing up more firmly to Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in eastern Ukraine. In fact, all EU member states have agreed to keep economic sanctions in place against Moscow. In addition, lifting the sanctions has been firmly attached to the implementation of the Minsk II agreement—and despite recent cracks in European solidarity, we hope that this stance will hold going forward. The notion that Europe is weak and dependent on Russian natural gas is a relic from the past. The notion that Europe is weak and dependent on Russian natural gas is a relic from the past. Europe has a strong regulatory framework with which commercial entities, including Gazprom, have to abide. For those who doubt the impact of these regulations, just ask Google or Microsoft. With the end of so-called destination clauses, natural gas can be re-sold whenever required, as long as sufficient infrastructure is in place. Just last year, Germany re-exported over 30 billion cubic meters of gas, mostly Russian, in particular to Central and Eastern Europe (including Ukraine). That volume exceeds the annual consumption of every European state with the exceptions of Germany, Italy, France, and Britain. In theory, Europe could even substantially wean itself off Russian gas if need be. To be sure, that would come at a major expense: over 200 billion euros of additional investments over a period of two years or more, and then an annual 35 billion euros, according to some calculations. That will almost surely not happen. But as a way of bounding the worst-case scenario, it is still informative. One might say that Europe has escalation dominance over Russia; the latter needs to export to Europe more than Europe need Russian hydrocarbons. The internal energy market is not finished, but Europe’s energy security has significantly improved in recent years. Even though world markets are currently awash in resources, there is no time for complacence, and European leaders should finish the job, foremost by safeguarding the swift construction of the so-called Projects of Common Interest (key energy infrastructure projects that address the remaining bottlenecks in the EU market), so that the U.S. State Department can take new infrastructure projects like Nord Stream 2 off its priority list, and make energy policy another true European success story. It is already much of the way there, and Western security is the better for it. Authors Tim BoersmaMichael E. O'Hanlon Full Article
story CNN’s misleading story on homework By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 10:00:00 -0400 Last week, CNN ran a back-to-school story on homework with the headline, “Kids Have Three Times Too Much Homework, Study Finds; What’s the Cost?” Homework is an important topic, especially for parents, but unfortunately, CNN’s story misleads rather than informs. The headline suggests American parents should be alarmed because their kids have too much homework. Should they? No, CNN has ignored the best evidence on that question, which suggests the opposite. The story relies on the results of one recent study of homework—a study that is limited in what it can tell us, mostly because of its research design. But CNN even gets its main findings wrong. The study suggests most students have too little homework, not too much. The Study The study that piqued CNN’s interest was conducted during four months (two in the spring and two in the fall) in Providence, Rhode Island. About 1,200 parents completed a survey about their children’s homework while waiting in 27 pediatricians’ offices. Is the sample representative of all parents in the U.S.? Probably not. Certainly CNN should have been a bit leery of portraying the results of a survey conducted in a single American city—any city—as evidence applying to a broader audience. More importantly, viewers are never told of the study’s significant limitations: that the data come from a survey conducted in only one city—in pediatricians’ offices by a self-selected sample of respondents. The survey’s sampling design is a huge problem. Because the sample is non-random there is no way of knowing if the results can be extrapolated to a larger population—even to families in Providence itself. Close to a third of respondents chose to complete the survey in Spanish. Enrollment in English Language programs in the Providence district comprises about 22 percent of students. About one-fourth (26 percent) of survey respondents reported having one child in the family. According to the 2010 Census, the proportion of families nationwide with one child is much higher, at 43 percent.[i] The survey is skewed towards large, Spanish-speaking families. Their experience with homework could be unique, especially if young children in these families are learning English for the first time at school. The survey was completed by parents who probably had a sick child as they were waiting to see a pediatrician. That’s a stressful setting. The response rate to the survey is not reported, so we don’t know how many parents visiting those offices chose not to fill out the survey. If the typical pediatrician sees 100 unique patients per month, in a four month span the survey may have been offered to more than ten thousand parents in the 27 offices. The survey respondents, then, would be a tiny slice, 10 to 15 percent, of those eligible to respond. We also don’t know the public-private school break out of the respondents, or how many were sending their children to charter schools. It would be interesting to see how many parents willingly send their children to schools with a heavy homework load. I wish the CNN team responsible for this story had run the data by some of CNN’s political pollsters. Alarm bells surely would have gone off. The hazards of accepting a self-selected, demographically-skewed survey sample as representative of the general population are well known. Modern political polling—and its reliance on random samples—grew from an infamous mishap in 1936. A popular national magazine, the Literary Digest, distributed 10 million post cards for its readers to return as “ballots” indicating who they would vote for in the 1936 race for president. More than two million post cards were returned! A week before the election, the magazine confidently predicted that Alf Landon, the Republican challenger from Kansas, would defeat Franklin Roosevelt, the Democratic incumbent, by a huge margin: 57 percent to 43 percent. In fact, when the real election was held, the opposite occurred: Roosevelt won more than 60% of the popular vote and defeated Landon in a landslide. Pollsters learned that self-selected samples should be viewed warily. The magazine’s readership was disproportionately Republican to begin with, and sometimes disgruntled subjects are more likely to respond to a survey, no matter the topic, than the satisfied. Here’s a very simple question: In its next poll on the 2016 presidential race, would CNN report the results of a survey of self-selected respondents in 27 pediatricians’ offices in Providence, Rhode Island as representative of national sentiment? Of course not. Then, please, CNN, don’t do so with education topics. The Providence Study’s Findings Let’s set aside methodological concerns and turn to CNN’s characterization of the survey’s findings. Did the study really show that most kids have too much homework? No, the headline that “Kids Have Three Times Too Much Homework” is not even an accurate description of the study’s findings. CNN’s on air coverage extended the misinformation. The online video of the coverage is tagged “Study: Your Kids Are Doing Too Much Homework.” The first caption that viewers see is “Study Says Kids Getting Way Too Much Homework.” All of these statements are misleading. In the published version of the Providence study, the researchers plotted the average amount of time spent on homework by students’ grade.[ii] They then compared those averages to a “10 minutes per-grade” guideline that serves as an indicator of the “right” amount of homework. I have attempted to replicate the data here in table form (they were originally reported in a line graph) to make that comparison easier.[iii] Contrary to CNN’s reporting, the data suggest—based on the ten minute per-grade rule—that most kids in this study have too little homework, not too much. Beginning in fourth grade, the average time spent on homework falls short of the recommended amount—a gap of only four minutes in fourth grade that steadily widens in later grades. A more accurate headline would have been, “Study Shows Kids in Nine out of 13 Grades Have Too Little Homework.” It appears high school students (grades 9-12) spend only about half the recommended time on homework. Two hours of nightly homework is recommended for 12th graders. They are, after all, only a year away from college. But according to the Providence survey, their homework load is less than an hour. So how in the world did CNN come up with the headline “Kids Have Three Times Too Much Homework?” By focusing on grades K-3 and ignoring all other grades. Here’s the reporting: The study, published Wednesday in The American Journal of Family Therapy, found students in the early elementary school years are getting significantly more homework than is recommended by education leaders, in some cases nearly three times as much homework as is recommended. The standard, endorsed by the National Education Association and the National Parent-Teacher Association, is the so-called "10-minute rule"— 10 minutes per-grade level per-night. That translates into 10 minutes of homework in the first grade, 20 minutes in the second grade, all the way up to 120 minutes for senior year of high school. The NEA and the National PTA do not endorse homework for kindergarten. In the study involving questionnaires filled out by more than 1,100 English and Spanish speaking parents of children in kindergarten through grade 12, researchers found children in the first grade had up to three times the homework load recommended by the NEA and the National PTA. Parents reported first-graders were spending 28 minutes on homework each night versus the recommended 10 minutes. For second-graders, the homework time was nearly 29 minutes, as opposed to the 20 minutes recommended. And kindergartners, their parents said, spent 25 minutes a night on after-school assignments, according to the study… CNN focused on the four grades, K-3, in which homework exceeds the ten-minute rule. They ignored more than two-thirds of the grades. Even with this focus, a more accurate headline would have been, “Study Suggests First Graders in Providence, RI Have Three Times Too Much Homework.” Conclusion Homework is a controversial topic. People hold differing points of view as to whether there is too much, too little, or just the right amount of homework. That makes it vitally important that the media give accurate information on the empirical dimensions to the debate. The amount of homework kids should have is subject to debate. But the amount of homework kids actually have is an empirical question. We can debate whether it’s too hot outside, but the actual temperature should be a matter of measurement, not debate. It’s impossible to think of a rational debate that can possibly ensue on the homework issue without knowing the empirical status quo in regards to time. Imagine someone beginning a debate by saying, “I am arguing that kids have too much [substitute “too little” here for the pro-homework side] homework but I must admit that I have no idea how much they currently have.” Data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) provide the best evidence we have on the amount of homework that kids have. NAEP’s sampling design allows us to make inferences about national trends, and the Long-Term Trend (LTT) NAEP offers data on homework since 1984. The latest LTT NAEP results (2012) indicate that the vast majority of nine-year-olds (83 percent) have less than an hour of homework each night. There has been an apparent uptick in the homework load, however, as 35 percent reported no homework in 1984, and only 22 percent reported no homework in 2012. MET Life also periodically surveys a representative sample of students, parents, and teachers on the homework issue. In the 2007 results, a majority of parents (52 percent) of elementary grade students (grades 3-6 in the MET survey) estimated their children had 30 minutes or less of homework. The MET Life survey found that parents have an overwhelmingly positive view of the amount of homework their children are assigned. Nine out of ten parents responded that homework offers the opportunity to talk and spend time with their children, and most do not see homework as interfering with family time or as a major source of familial stress. Minority parents, in particular, reported believing homework is beneficial for students’ success at school and in the future.[iv] That said, just as there were indeed Alf Landon voters in 1936, there are indeed children for whom homework is a struggle. Some bring home more than they can finish in a reasonable amount of time. A complication for researchers of elementary age children is that the same students who have difficulty completing homework may have other challenges—difficulties with reading, low achievement, and poor grades in school.[v] Parents who question the value of homework often have a host of complaints about their child’s school. It is difficult for researchers to untangle all of these factors and determine, in the instances where there are tensions, whether homework is the real cause. To their credit, the researchers who conducted the Providence study are aware of these constraints and present a number of hypotheses warranting further study with a research design supporting causal inferencing. That’s the value of this research, not CNN’s misleading reporting of the findings. [i] Calculated from data in Table 64, U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2012, page 56. http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0064.pdf. [ii] The mean sample size for each grade is reported as 7.7 percent (or 90 students). Confidence intervals for each grade estimate are not reported. [iii] The data in Table I are estimates (by sight) from a line graph incremented in five percentage point intervals. [iv] Met Life, Met Life Survey of the American Teacher: The Homework Experience, November 13, 2007, pp. 15. [v] Among high school students, the bias probably leans in the opposite direction: high achievers load up on AP, IB, and other courses that assign more homework. Authors Tom Loveless Full Article
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