While paper packaging in many ways is more naturally eco-friendly than plastic packaging, Sun Chemical is busy developing inks and coatings solutions to ensure that true recyclability is achieved as the ‘paperization’ trend gains steam.

Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) terminal rate, lowering its central-case projection from 2.25% to 1.50%. The bank now anticipates the ECB’s policy rate will dip slightly below the neutral rate by the end of 2025, rather than returning to neutral by mid-year as previously expected.

This shift in outlook is driven by several factors, including the potential for new tariffs from a Trump administration, which would likely impact trade, along with weaker macroeconomic performance in Europe and the increasing risk of inflation falling below target.

According to Deutsche Bank, the uncertainty surrounding these dynamics is considerable, especially given the unclear timing and effects of U.S. tariffs and potential European responses. Reflecting this uncertainty, the bank has outlined a broad target range of 1.00% to 1.75% for the ECB’s terminal rate.

Deutsche Bank notes that the terminal rate’s trajectory and ultimate level will depend on key influences such as:

1. European fiscal policy,
2. the economic health of Germany,
3. developments in China,
4. and fluctuations in oil prices.

The bank further suggests that the global economy may be entering a new phase, with Europe potentially experiencing increasingly divergent economic conditions compared to the U.S.

• US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.
• Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on Monday
• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM
• It's not a pretty picture in China
• Fed's Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I'm optimistic that will continue
• BofA: Life don't come easy for CHF: What's the trade?
• US 10 year yield looks to close at the highest level since July 1
• Major European indices are closing sharply lower
• John Paulson drops out of the running for Treasury Secretary
• New York Fed: 1-year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month
• Fed's Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolves
• Fed's Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook
• And they are off. US stocks are marginally higher in the early trading
• LiteFinance Becomes the Official Trading Partner of Leicester City Football Club
• Kickstart the FX day. A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective
• Canada Sept building permits +11.5% vs +1.7% expected
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Not much action as we await the US CPI release tomorrow

Markets:

• Bitcoin trades to $90,000 for the first time, two days after passing $80,000. The high reached $90,243
• WTI crude trades down $0.07 at $67.97
• 2 year yield 4.338%, up 8.4 basis points. 10 year yield 4.421%, +11.4 basis points.
• Gold down -$20.78 or -0.79% at $2598.58. Lowest level since September 20
• S&P 500 -17.36 points or -0.29% at 5983.99.
• Nasdaq index down -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19,281.40. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P closed by the exact same point amount....
• Russell 2000 tumbled -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84

In the US the NY Fed Survey showed inflation expectations moving lower with the one year inflation at 2.9% vs 3.0% estimate. That is the lowest in 4 years. The 3 and five years measures also declined with the 3 year down to 2.5% from 2.7%, and the 5 year down to 2.8% from 2.9%.

In Canada building permits soared by 11.5% after -6.3% decline last month. Overall permits were the second-highest level since the start of the new series in January 2017 but it's more of a one-off around government spending than anything related to the economy. Ontario's institutional component received big contributions from construction for long-term care facilities across the province and a hospital permit in Prince Edward County. Residential building is holding up on the multi-family side as the pipeline of condos continues to work its way through but single-family has flatlined.

The US bond market was open after Monday's Veteran's Day holiday and selling was the order of the day as traders price in the inflationary and growth implications of a GOP sweep (and perhaps increased deficits too). The 10-year yield rose close to 12 basis points. The 2 year is up close to 9 basis points.

The USD moved higher with the greenback moving the most vs the GBP (0.95%).. The GBPUSD moved to the lowest level since August 8 and traded below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low. That level comes in at 1.27322. The current price is trading just above that level into the close for the day.

The EURUSD is rallying modestly into the close but still saw the dollar higher by 0.26% versus the EUR. The pair moved below the 1.0601 level which took to price to a new low for 2024. The low could only get to 1.0594 before bouncing higher into the close. The sellers in the EURUSD had their shot. They missed.

The USDJPY is closing higher by 0.61% and into a swing area between 154.54 and 155.21. The high price reached 154.92 extending above the high price from last week at 154.70. The price is trading at 154.62 into the close. Buyers are in control. Can they extend to the high target at 155.21.

The USDCAD traded to the highest level going back to October 2022 when the price extended to 1.3977. The high price today reached 1.3966 just 11 pips short of that high. The price is trading at 1.3949 going into the end of the trading day.

Gold continues its move to the downside after reaching record levels at the end of October at $2790.07. The price has since fallen -6.89% to $2597.88.

Bitcoin's sprint to the topside continued today with the price reaching above $90,000 for the first time ever and just 2-days after breaking above the $80,000 level. The high price reached $90,243. The price has come off that lofty level and trades at $88,092.

The MSTR chart is a perfect example of the importance of market timing. The MSTR stock did nothing for almost two decades! Imagine investing in it early and waiting 20 years to get a return.

If you want to have conviction in your ideas, you need to know what moves your stocks and position for that change. In the book “The New Market Wizards”, Stanley Druckenmiller said this in response to the question of how he evaluates stocks:

“When I first started out, I did very thorough papers covering every aspect of a stock or industry. Before I could make the presentation to the stock selection committee, I first had to submit the paper to the research director."

"I particularly remember the time I gave him my paper on the banking industry. I felt very proud of my work. However, he read through it and said, This is useless. What makes the stock go up and down? That comment acted as a spur."

"Thereafter, I focused my analysis on seeking to identify the factors that were strongly correlated to a stock's price movement as opposed to looking at all the fundamentals. Frankly, even today, many analysts still don't know what makes their particular stocks go up and down.”

His number one advice? Do not invest in the present. The present does not move stock prices. Change moves them.

MicroStrategy is basically a Bitcoin play, so you just need to know where Bitcoin is going to trade MSTR stock. No valuation analysis needed.

The catalyst for the latest rally? Trump's victory.

This is why waiting for the right catalysts is paramount. Not only does it tell you WHEN to trade, but it also gives you an IMMEDIATE feedback on whether you are right or wrong. That helps with knowing when to bet more and when to get out to keep your drawdown low.

Why it's important?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for CPI

CPI Y/Y

• 2.7% (2%)
• 2.6% (56%) - consensus
• 2.5% (28%)
• 2.4% (12%)
• 2.3% (2%)

CPI M/M

• 0.3% (17%)
• 0.2% (73%) - consensus
• 0.1% (10%)

Core CPI Y/Y

• 3.4% (8%)
• 3.3% (81%) - consensus
• 3.2% (11%)

Core CPI M/M

• 0.4% (4%)
• 0.3% (82%) - consensus
• 0.2% (14%)

Analysis

We can ignore the headline CPI as the market will focus on the Core figures. We can notice that we have a pretty strong consensus and not much skew on either side.

Nonetheless, there's been a consistent bid in the US Dollar going into this report with Treasury yields higher and stocks kinda rangebound. The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the launch of “Voices From the Field,” a new digital campaign highlighting stories of local broadcasters through first-person accounts. The campaign, part of NAB’s “We Are Broadcasters” initiative, will spotlight how broadcasters are using their expertise, experience and dedication to local broadcasting to serve their audiences and uplift their communities.

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show Premiere will examine the future impact of edge technology on radio and television broadcasters during a session titled “Livin’ on the Edge: Advances in Computing and Networking to Drive Innovation in Broadcasting.” The session, which will air on Wednesday, April 21st at 3 p.m. ET and be available on-demand, will present a new study about opportunities created by wider adoption of edge technologies in the next three to four years.

“Local broadcasters carry the mantel of investigative journalism, shining a light on government corruption, questioning those in power and ensuring consumers have a powerful voice to fight back against injustice. It is concerning that some public officials – typically those whose actions have been called into question – would ask the federal government to step in and censor broadcasters in violation of the First Amendment. The Federal Communications Commission must reject such unconstitutional attacks on free speech. It is a slippery slope, and one that our nation’s founders clearly sought to prevent.”

Washington, D.C. -- Radio and television stations are not adequately compensated for their news content on technology platforms because of an imbalance in market power, according to a new study released today by BIA Advisory Services. The study found that each year broadcasters lose nearly $2 billion in value that they generate for two of the largest technology platforms through publication of their valuable content – particularly local news.

Washington, D.C. -- As founding members of the Biden Administration’s COVID-19 Community Corps, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) is urging all local radio and television stations to participate in a National Month of Action beginning June 4 to provide COVID-19 vaccine education and help ensure all Americans understand the importance of getting vaccinated.

Washington, D.C. -- Award-winning journalist Lester Holt will be inducted into the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) Broadcasting Hall of Fame for his contributions to broadcast television at the 2021 NAB Show, held October 9–13 in Las Vegas. Holt will accept the honor at the NAB Show Welcome event on Monday, October 11 at 9 a.m. PDT.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to recent incidents of violence involving broadcast journalists, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In response to the introduction of legislation to promote diversity of ownership in the broadcast industry, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today launched new spots underscoring the importance of fact-based broadcast radio and television journalism at a time when misinformation is running rampant on social media.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In response to polling conducted by musicFIRST regarding a performance royalty on local broadcast radio stations for music airplay, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith:

Jim Bohannon, host of the "Jim Bohannon Show" will be the NAB Broadcasting Hall of Fame radio inductee for 2022.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- New National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt shared his vision and outlook for the organization and the broadcasting industry in a virtual town hall for NAB members today. LeGeyt was joined by members of NAB’s policy team for a briefing on legislative and regulatory issues facing broadcasters, as well as an update on the association’s work to support diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in the industry.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt testified today before the House Judiciary Committee at a hearing on imposing a performance royalty on local radio stations for music airplay.

Washington, D.C. -- The NAB Leadership Foundation is now accepting applications for the 2023 Broadcast Leadership Training (BLT) program through May 31. The BLT program is designed to prepare senior-level broadcast executives to advance as group executives or station owners. Women and people of color are encouraged to apply.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Local radio and television broadcasters from across the nation gathered today in Washington, D.C. for the National Association of Broadcasters’ annual State Leadership Conference. The convention featured speeches from several members of Congress about issues affecting the broadcasting industry and preparations for attendees’ meetings with legislators and regulators on Tuesday.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

Washington, D.C. -- Iconic game show “The Price Is Right”, which airs on CBS and is produced by Fremantle, is the 2022 television inductee into the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) Broadcasting Hall of Fame. Host Drew Carey and executive producer and showrunner Evelyn Warfel will accept the award at The Achievement in Broadcasting Awards on the NAB Show Main Stage on April 24 at 4:30 p.m. in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show is currently accepting applications from startup companies to feature their innovative products and solutions on the industry’s largest stage for media, entertainment and technology at the 2022 NAB Show, held April 23–27 in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- Actor, director and educator LeVar Burton will receive the first-ever Insight Award from the Library of American Broadcasting Foundation (LABF) in recognition of his extraordinary contributions to broadcasting, history and American culture. Burton will be honored during the NAB Show Welcome on Monday, April 25 in Las Vegas, Nev.

Washington, D.C. -- Sophi.io, a suite of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered solutions that help content publishers identify and leverage the value of their content, has joined PILOT, an initiative of the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) bringing together a coalition of innovators, educators and advocates dedicated to advancing broadcast technologies and cultivating new media opportunities. 

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) released a new NAB Podcast episode today featuring a discussion between NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Deanne Criswell about the importance of emergency preparedness. Their conversation highlighted how broadcasters help disaster relief agencies prepare, inform and serve local communities during this year’s hurricane and wildfire seasons.

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters Leadership Foundation (NABLF) announced the recipients of the 2022 Celebration of Service to America Awards at a gala held tonight at The Anthem in Washington, D.C. The awards were announced live and presented to recipients in eight categories recognizing local broadcasters’ outstanding service to their communities.

Washington, D.C.– The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the launch of a public service campaign to further support children displaced by the war in Ukraine. The campaign will run on World Refugee Day (June 20) and all proceeds will be donated to UNICEF USA to support UNICEF’s emergency response and humanitarian work in Ukraine and neighboring countries.

Washington, D.C. -- The Celebration of Service to America Awards will air nationally on over 700 local television and radio broadcast stations across the country beginning Saturday, July 9 through August 13, 2022. The one-hour television and radio special, presented by the National Association of Broadcasters Leadership Foundation (NABLF), celebrates and honors local broadcasters’ commitment to public service in the communities they serve.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Broadcast television stations significantly increased the number of local news telecasts and hours of news content they aired over a 10-year period, according to an analysis of Nielsen data conducted by the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB).

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the launch of the 2022 Election Toolkit. The online resource provides local television and radio broadcasters with ideas and information to cover the 2022 local, state and federal elections.

Washington, D.C. -- PILOT, the innovation arm of the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), today announced it is conducting a program with support of the Google News Initiative to improve direct-to-consumer audience engagement to better serve local audiences. The six-month program is designed to support broadcaster education as well as the implementation of first-party data and direct-to-consumer business models.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today hosted a virtual town hall to brief NAB members on advocacy and business issues facing the broadcast industry for the remainder of the year. NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt was joined by senior executives and public policy staffers to offer updates on the association’s work, priorities and initiatives.

Washington, D.C. -- The broadcast television and radio industry would lose $2.1 billion in digital advertising revenue annually, representing 6.3% of the industry’s total advertising revenue, if third-party cookies were eliminated today with no privacy-preserving alternatives, according to a new study released today by Borrell Associates. Borrell Associates President Jim Brown presented the study, commissioned the National Association of Broadcasters' (NAB) innovation wing PILOT, at NAB Show New York.

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) and the Society of Broadcast Engineers (SBE), the association for broadcast and multimedia technology professionals, announced a joint memorandum of understanding with the Department of Defense to allow non-exclusive access to commercial spectrum at 2025-2110 MHz at 26 U.S. military sites. The bases were selected for their ability to provide streamlined access to spectrum used by broadcasters for electronic newsgathering and other purposes. DoD activities at these bases will include test and training missions to assure readiness and enhance electromagnetic spectrum superiority.

Washington, D.C.— The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), the premier advocacy association for America’s broadcasters, and NAB Show, the preeminent global trade show driving the evolution of media and entertainment, are celebrating their centennial year in 2023 with activities, events and a commemorative website.

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) hosted a virtual town hall today to brief NAB members on advocacy and business issues as Congress begins its 118th Session and the House of Representatives switches party control. NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt was joined by senior executives and public policy experts to offer updates on the association’s work, priorities and initiatives.

The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) is hosting a webinar on recruitment strategies for television and radio stations to draw new sales and programming talent. The webinar, “Retooling Your Recruiting Strategy for 2023,” is an NAB members-only event and will take place on Wednesday, February 1 at 3 p.m. ET.

The West Hall of the Las Vegas Convention Center will be home to NAB Show’s new Broadcast District, a destination for radio and television broadcasters offering premium educational sessions, networking and special events, April 15 – 19, 2023. The show floor features a dynamic marketplace showcasing next generation technologies, services and solutions to propel the broadcast industry into the future.

The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) announced Adrian “Stretch Armstrong” Bartos and Bobbito García as the 2023 NAB Broadcasting Hall of Fame inductees for radio. The revolutionary pair, who came to fame hosting the “Stretch Armstrong and Bobbito Show” at Columbia University’s WKCR-FM in the 1990s, will be inducted at a special ceremony on the main stage at NAB Show on April 17, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The induction of Bartos and García into the Broadcasting Hall of Fame coincides with the 50th anniversary of hip-hop, which will be celebrated throughout 2023.

The National Association of Broadcasters’ (NAB) innovation arm - PILOT - released the final report from its First-Party Data Direct-to-Consumer Accelerator. The report details a six-month long study on direct-to-consumer data strategies for broadcasters.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Broadcaster associations representing all 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia have unanimously approved a resolution opposing "any new performance fee, tax, royalty or other charge relating to the public performance of sound recordings" on local broadcast radio stations.