Julio Osorio stands in the Valhalla Memorial Park Cemetery near his mother's grave. (Emily Elena Dugdale/KPCC); Credit: Emily Elena Dugdale

The devastating Woolsey fire broke out one year ago. In Malibu, it wreaked havoc not only on hundreds of homeowners but also on the day laborers, housekeepers and gardeners who traveled to the city to work in its affluent neighborhoods.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

; Credit: Alyson Hurt/NPR

To safely phase out social distancing measures, the U.S. needs more diagnostic testing for the coronavirus, experts say. But how much more?

The Trump administration said on April 27 the U.S. will soon have enough capacity to conduct double the current amount of testing for active infections. The country has done nearly 248,000 tests daily on average in the last seven days, according to the nonprofit Covid Tracking Project. Doubling that would mean doing around 496,000 a day.

Will that be enough? What benchmark should states try to hit?

One prominent research group, Harvard's Global Health Institute, proposes that the U.S. should be doing more than 900,000 tests per day as a country. This projection, released Thursday, is a big jump from its earlier projection of testing need, which was between 500,000 and 600,000 daily.

Harvard's testing estimate increased, says Ashish Jha, director of the Global Health Institute, because the latest modeling shows that the outbreak in the U.S. is worse than projected earlier.

"Just in the last few weeks, all of the models have converged on many more people getting infected and many more people [dying]," he says.

But each state's specific need for testing varies depending on the size of its outbreak, explains Jha. The bigger the outbreak, the more testing is needed.

Thursday Jha's group at Harvard published a simulation that estimates the amount of testing needed in each state by May 15. In the graphic below, we compare these estimates with the average numbers of daily tests states are currently doing. (Jump to graphic)

Two ways to assess whether testing is adequate

To make their state-by-state estimates, the Harvard Global Health Institute group started from a model of future case counts. They calculated how much testing would be needed for a state to test all infected people and any close contacts they may have exposed the virus. (The simulation estimates testing 10 contacts on average.)

"Testing is outbreak control 101, because what testing lets you do is figure out who's infected and who's not," Jha says. "And that lets you separate out the infected people from the non infected people and bring the disease under control."

This approach is how communities can prevent outbreaks from flaring up. First, test all symptomatic people, then reach out to their close contacts and test them, and finally ask those who are infected or exposed to isolate themselves.

Our chart also shows another testing benchmark for each state: the ratio of tests conducted that come back positive. Communities that see around 10% or fewer positives among their test results are probably testing enough, the World Health Organization advises. If the rate is higher, they're likely missing a lot of active infections.

What is apparent from the data we present below is that many states are far from both the Harvard estimates and the 10% positive benchmark.

Just nine states are near or have exceeded the testing minimums estimated by Harvard; they are mostly larger, less populous states: Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Several states with large outbreaks — New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut among others — are very far from the minimum testing target. Some states that are already relaxing their social-distancing restrictions, such as Georgia, Texas and Colorado, are far from the target too.

Jha offers several caveats about his group's estimates.

Estimates are directional not literal

Researchers at the Global Health Initiative at Harvard considered three different models of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak as a starting point for their testing estimates. They found that while there was significant variation in the projections of outbreak sizes, all the models tend to point in the same direction, i.e. if one model showed that a state needed significantly more testing, the others generally did too.

The model they used to create these estimates is the Youyang Gu COVID-19 Forecasts, which they say has tracked closely with what's actually happened on the ground. Still the researchers caution, these numbers are not meant to be taken literally but as a guide.

If social distancing is relaxed, testing needs may grow

The Harvard testing estimates are built on a model that assumes that states continue social distancing through May 15. And about half of states have already started lifting some of those.

Jha says, that without the right measures in place to contain spread, easing up could quickly lead to new cases.

"The moment you relax, the number of cases will start climbing. And therefore, the number of tests you need to keep your society, your state from having large outbreaks will also start climbing," warns Jha.

Testing alone is not enough

A community can't base the decision that it's safe to open up on testing data alone. States should also see a consistent decline in the number of cases, of two weeks at least, according to White House guidance. If their cases are instead increasing, they should assume the number of tests they need will increase too.

And Jha warns, testing is step one, but it won't contain an outbreak by itself. It needs to be part of "a much broader set of strategies and plans the states need to have in place" when they begin to reopen.

In fact, his group's model is built on the assumption that states are doing contact tracing and have plans to support isolation for infected or exposed people.

"I don't want anybody to just look at the number and say, we meet it and we're good to go," he says. "What this really is, is testing capacity in the context of having a really effective workforce of contact tracers."

The targets are floors not goals

States that have reached the estimated target should think of that as a starting point.

"We've always built these as the floor, the bare minimum," Jha says. More testing would be even better, allowing states to more rapidly tamp down case surges.

In fact, other experts have proposed the U.S. do even more testing. Paul Romer, a professor of economics at New York University proposed in a recent white paper that if the U.S. tested every resident, every two weeks, isolating those who test positive, it could stop the pandemic in its tracks.

Jha warns that without sufficient testing, and the infrastructure in place to trace and isolate contacts, there's a real risk that states — even those with few cases now — will see new large outbreaks. "I think what people have to remember is that the virus isn't gone. The disease isn't gone. And it's going to be with us for a while," he says.

Daniel Wood contributed to this report.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

; Credit: /Jackie Ferrentino for NPR

A lot is at stake for students taking Advanced Placement exams, even in normal times. If you score high enough, you can earn college credit. It's also a big factor in college applications. But for some students, the idea of studying right now feels impossible.

"I'm constantly thinking about making sure my family doesn't get sick and I don't get sick," says Elise, a high school junior outside Boston. (We're not using her full name because she's worried about hurting her college applications.)

Concerns about the coronavirus have put most standardized tests, such as the SAT and ACT, on hold this spring. But AP exams are going forward with a new online format — and that's raising questions about fairness.

Elise, 17, says she spent months preparing for what is typically a three-hour, multiple-choice and essay-based exam; she was blindsided when she learned it will now be an online, 45-minute, open-response test.

"I have no idea what I'm going to get when I open that test," she says.

Elise was hoping the College Board, which administers AP exams, would cancel this year's exams, as it did the spring SATs. But since the tests are being offered, she says she feels she has to take them. She worries it would look bad on her college applications if she opted out.

For other students, just the idea of taking the exam at home is causing anxiety. Kayleen Guzman, 17, from Boston says it's hard to find peace and quiet in her house right now.

"Currently, it's me, my mom, my dog, my sister and my stepdad," she explains. "Sometimes I feel like it's too much chaos."

But Guzman is glad she still has the opportunity to take the AP exams at all this year. She says she worked hard in her two AP classes and she wants the chance to earn college credit.

However, it's still unclear how much credit colleges will give students for this year's exams.

"None of us would say that we are confident that a 3 or 4 or 5 on the AP exam this year means the exact same thing as a 3, 4 and 5 on the exam last year," says Harvard University's Andrew Ho, who studies the reliability of educational tests.

Ho says that because of the new format, this year's AP exams won't be measuring the same thing as previous years' exams. For one, the new tests will cover less material. And changing where kids take it — from a proctored classroom to their laptops at home — is a big deal. But Ho adds, "Just because it's not completely comparable doesn't mean the College Board and colleges, through their own policies, couldn't adjust."

Some colleges are already adjusting. The University of California system has come out explicitly to say it won't change the way it credits AP scores. Other colleges that didn't want to go on the record say they are planning to change their policies, but the details weren't ready to share just yet.

In a statement, College Board spokesperson Jerome White said the organization decided to move forward with AP testing to give motivated students the opportunity to earn college credit. He added that the organization is making "a significant financial investment" to make the exams available online, from cheating prevention software to helping students who may not have an Internet connection or access to a computer.

Still, some educators worry that those efforts won't be enough.

"This situation has created a lot of distraction," says Savannah Lodge-Scharff, an AP Physics teacher for Boston Public Schools. She argues that without in-person classes, many students won't be able to engage with the material in the same way. On top of that, financial stress means many of her students are juggling additional responsibilities, like taking care of siblings.

"I have some of my students who are working 40, 50, 60 hours a week at the grocery store right now in the fear their parents are going to be laid off," she explains.

And then there's the question of geographic equity. This year's exams will be administered at the same time worldwide, meaning students in Hong Kong will be up at midnight to take it.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

KJ Apa and Britt Robertson in "I Still Believe" ; Credit: Lionsgate/I Still Believe (2020)

Larry Mantle and KPCC film critics Amy Nicholson and Wade Major review this weekend’s new movie releases.

• "I Still Believe" on VOD

• "Banana Split" on VOD 

• "Vivarium" on VOD

• "Resistance" on VOD

• "Vitalina Varela" on GrasshopperFilm.com

• "Uncorked" on Netflix

• "Dosed" on film's website

• "The Occupant" on Netflix

• "Tape" on VOD

• "There's Something In The Water" on Netflix

Guests:

Amy Nicholson, film critic for KPCC, film writer for The Guardian and host of the podcasts ‘Unspooled’ and the podcast miniseries “Zoom”; she tweets @TheAmyNicholson

Wade Major, film critic for KPCC and CineGods.com

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

Data from studies monitoring the amount of plastic eaten by seabirds suggest that levels in the North Sea are well above targets established for the North East Atlantic Ocean by OSPAR (the Oslo and Paris Convention). For the most recent monitoring period, the target amount was exceeded in well over half the birds studied.

Walter Flores was unemployed for 8 months in 2014 but is now working in sales for Workforce Solutions in Compton; Credit: Brian Watt/KPCC

California's unemployment rate continued its decline in December, ending the year at 7 percent, according to figures released Friday by the state Employment Development Department.

But in Compton, Willowbrook and the Florence-Graham section of Los Angeles County, it remains about double that, data show.

“You might have work this week. But next week, you won’t have work,” said James Hicks, 36, 0f Compton. He's worked in warehouses through staffing agencies, but said the jobs have always been temporary.

Statewide, California has added jobs at a faster rate than the United States for three straight years, according to Robert Kleinhenz, Chief Economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation. He pointed out the statewide unemployment rate is now where it was June 2008. 

"All in all, with the recession now five years back in our rearview mirror, we’re finally at the point where we can say that we have shrugged off quite a bit of the pain that occurred back during those times," Kleinhenz said.

The Los Angeles County metro area saw a net gain of almost 71,000 jobs in 2014.  The County's overall unemployment rate has fallen to 7.9 percent from 9.2 percent a year ago.

But Compton's unemployment rate was 13 percent in December.

“I’d rather have a  full-time type of gig, working 40 hours a week, but right now, even if you get 25 hours, it’s a blessing,” said Hicks, the warehouse worker in Compton.

On Thursday, he interviewed to be a guard with a security firm, but was told there weren’t any positions available. He had another security guard job six months ago that he thought might become full time and permanent. 

"It was going all right for about two to three months, until they cut my hours and days," Hicks said. 

Walter Flores lives in La Mirada but currently works as an account executive in the Compton office of Workforce Solutions. He was unemployed for about eight months last year after a car accident.

"Losing what you love to do is a tough one, but I'm back," he said. "2015 is going to be a great year."

Flores said most major warehouse and logistics companies prefer to hire temporary workers through industrial staffing firms like the one where he's working because their needs are sporadic.  

But he said it's still a potential opportunity.

"It doesn't matter that it's a temporary position, as long as you put your foot in the door, and then you let the employer know how much value you are for the company," Flores said.  

Hicks, who's earned a GED, wants to find a program to study physical therapy. But first, he’d like to find a job. 

He said you can't judge Compton’s residents by its unemployment rate.

"Some of us out here who [are] looking for jobs, but sometimes it’s the luck of the draw," he said. "It’s kind of scarce out there.” 

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

The email includes the potential victim’s password as evidence of a hack, but there is more than meets the eye

The post Sextortion scammers still shilling with stolen passwords appeared first on WeLiveSecurity

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: The Plague of Corruption video General Flynn San Antonio makes phrase “Chinese virus” hate speech Vitamin D deficiency and coronavirus Testing, flattening the curve, magical thinking If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots […]

The post Episode 962 Scott Adams: No One Knows Anything But We Still Have to Decide How to reopen Economy appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.

In 1989, researchers dragged a plough harrow across the seafloor of the Peru Basin to recreate some of the effects of deep-sea mining. Twenty-six years later, a new team of researchers returned to the site to assess whether there were any long-term ecological effects. They found that the seabed ecosystem remained disrupted, with significantly fewer suspension feeder species, such as anemones and sea sponges, than in undisturbed areas of seafloor. This suggests that deep-sea mining could cause irreversible changes to marine food webs in highly disturbed areas.

A new concrete-reinforcement system, used by the LIFE INSU-SHELL1 project, replaces steel rods with non-corrosive textile structures to reduce the amount of concrete needed in construction. This nearly halves the global warming potential of traditional steel-reinforced concrete which is the largest producer of CO2 emissions in the building industry.

A team of psychologists, kinesiologists and archaeologists at Indiana University and elsewhere are throwing new light on a longstanding archaeological mystery: the purpose of a large number of spherical stone artifacts found at a major archaeological site in South Africa.

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An extinct reptile related to crocodiles that lived 212 million years ago in present day New Mexico has been named as a new species, Vivaron haydeni, in a paper published this week by Virginia Tech's Department of Geosciences researchers.

read more

Effective flood-risk communications should include specific information on how householders can protect themselves and their property against flooding, a recent Dutch study concludes. The researchers’ evaluation of communication strategies also highlights an important role for social media in spreading messages about flood risk and protection.

A recent study compares the effects of organic, ‘natural’ fertilisers, such as compost, with mineral, synthetic fertilisers, such as urea, on N2O emissions from Mediterranean soil. It suggests that there is little difference between the fertilisers, but that pig slurry offers the best overall balance in terms of emissions and crop yield.

Global population growth since 1850 has been largely enabled by commercial phosphorus and nitrogen fertilisers. The availability of these nutrients for food production relies upon steadily diminishing resources of natural gas and phosphorus rock. A recent study suggests that to secure a long-term affordable food supply, policy intervention is needed to conserve these essential resources.

'Feed the crop not the soil' is the message of a new review into sustainable phosphorus use. Currently, phosphorus fertiliser is applied to the soil, and plants then take it up through the roots. However, more precise nutrient management is needed on farms, the researchers say, so that the phosphorus is targeted at the crop just as it needs it.

Non-conservative tillage techniques, such as milling and harrowing, are the most common way to manage soil in Mediterranean olive orchards. A new study confirms the value of alternative methods based on the use of spontaneous cover crops which can significantly improve soil structure and reduce erosion whilst maintaining yields.

Adding compost, manure, and other forms of organic matter to farmland soil can boost earthworm numbers, crop yield, and the stability of soil, finds a recent analysis of long-term case studies. No-tillage and crop-rotation practices also have positive effects on soil, although no-tillage's benefits for earthworms are often absent on farms that use herbicides and other pesticides. The study also confirms that organic farming typically produces lower crop yields than conventional farming, but provides recommendations on how to reduce this ‘yield gap’, while highlighting positive aspects of organic agriculture.

The application to crops of struvite (magnesium ammonium phosphate) recovered from waste water may cause antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) present in this fertiliser to enter the food chain. Chinese researchers who conducted this study on Brassica plants suggest that ARGs in struvite pass from the soil into the roots of the plant, and from the roots to the leaves, via the bacterial community already present. The results of this research highlight the need for struvite production methods and agricultural practices that minimise the risk of antibiotic-resistance transmission from struvite to humans or animals via the environment.

One method that has been proposed for removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere is to ‘fertilise’ the ocean to encourage phytoplankton (algae) blooms. A recent study has outlined the environmental, legal and social implications of large-scale fertilisation of the sea with urea in the Sulu Sea off the coast of the Philippines.

A recent report has summarised what is currently known about the effects of ocean fertilisation as a climate change mitigation measure. The report highlights gaps in scientific understanding of the long term-effects of large-scale ocean fertilisation activities and raises questions about the effectiveness of the approach and the possibility of unintended impacts.

New research investigating the effects of naturally occurring iron fertilisation in the sea suggests that large scale geoengineering projects designed to sequester carbon in the deep sea could have a dramatic impact on marine ecosystems. The study found that the organic matter arriving at the sea floor and the species that live there are very different, depending on whether waters are fertilised by iron leached from nearby islands or not.

Most emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) are linked to the use of nitrogen (N) fertiliser in agriculture, highlighting a need for agricultural management practices that reduce emissions while maintaining agronomic productivity. A new study has assessed the long-term impact of conventional tillage (CT — where soil is prepared for agriculture via mechanical agitation) and no-tillage (NT) systems on soil N2O emissions and crop productivity in rain-fed Mediterranean conditions. The findings show that, over a period of 18 years, mean yield-scaled (i.e. per unit grain yield) soil N2O emissions (YSNE) were 2.8 to 3.3 times lower under NT than CT. The researchers therefore recommend NT as a suitable strategy by which to balance agricultural productivity with lower soil N2O emissions in rain-fed Mediterranean agroecosystems.

A new method of processing food waste into fertiliser has been outlined in a recent study. The process uses a digester system with microorganisms to break down organic waste into fertiliser. The resultant fertiliser was used in a low-energy greenhouse to produce a range of food crops. The method is a potential way to utilise food waste and reduce the energy consumption of food production as part of a circular economy.

As Indian firms realign their focus on revenue growth, they need to leverage customer and market behaviour to place their bets on long-term, sustainable growth, a new report said.

Tech giants Google and Facebook allowing most of their workforces to WFH through the end of this year.

A tax of €0.05–0.27 per kilogram (kg) of fertiliser could help to limit French farmers’ use of fertiliser, which is driven by the high rapeseed prices resulting from biofuels policy, according to new economics research. This, in turn, may limit fertilisers’ environmental impacts, such as water pollution, the study’s authors suggest.

Khudoleĭ, K. M

Governments and funding bodies are increasingly evaluating the ‘impact’ of academic research. There are growing discussions about impact – what it means, and how it can be demonstrated – and it is a challenge to evaluate impact on society. This study investigated the broader benefits of scientific research, beyond technology development, to support more comprehensive evaluations of science.

Phosphorus in sewage and manure could be more available to crops than previously thought, suggests new research. The study found that some forms of sewage and manure treatment provided plants with more phosphorus than conventional inorganic fertilisers.

This was a key demand by IT industry lobby group Nasscom, which had argued that it needed policy stability instead of a month-by-month extension.

Taiwan-based electronics contract manufacturer Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd or Foxconn has reportedly said that the production of the 5G iPhones is likely to start on schedule for the fall launch of the new handsets.

As Indian firms realign their focus on revenue growth, they need to leverage customer and market behaviour to place their bets on long-term, sustainable growth, a new report said.

Tech giants Google and Facebook allowing most of their workforces to WFH through the end of this year.

The biodiversity and abundance of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi — important soil organisms that can help plants to capture nutrients — is greater in organically managed soils with reduced tilling compared to conventional methods, a new Swiss study suggests. This illustrates the impacts that land management practices such as ploughing can have on soil biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides.

Hedgerows are vital habitats in intensively managed landscapes, providing food and shelter for wildlife. How hedgerows are managed affects their structure, with dense, woody hedges being the most valuable for conservation. A recent study has found an alternative method of hedging that is cheaper than traditional hedge laying but offers the same benefits of dense new growth and berry provision for wildlife. Use of this method could double the length of hedgerows being rejuvenated in England, the authors estimate.

The prominent role of EU countries in the international trade of reptiles for pets, including many rare and illegally traded species, is highlighted in a recent study. The researchers call for better enforcement and tighter legislation to control the trade, which is a major threat to global biodiversity. In particular the researchers appeal for legislation to be passed for species protected in their native range countries, which can currently be freely traded in the EU if they are not subject to international trade conventions such as CITES.

New research demonstrates how nanoparticles of silver in antibacterial socks and other fabrics may be released into the environment by washing. The study suggests that the release of silver from the textiles depends to a large extent on the way the silver has been incorporated into the fabric and that producers have possibilities for minimising release.

A new study has developed risk assessment criteria for engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) to help inform innovation and policy decisions. It illustrates that product design can influence the unintended release of ENMs and that combining knowledge about the product life cycle with a systematic assessment of the potential hazards may enable responsible choices for future product developments to be made.

Many agricultural pesticides used in Europe could disrupt male hormones and lead to infertility problems, according to laboratory tests. ‘Biomonitoring’ studies to investigate the actual behaviour of pesticides in the human body are now urgently needed to clarify the link between pesticide exposure and male reproductive health.

Unprotected workers exposed to airborne nanoparticles face a potential health risk from carbon black and titanium dioxide nanoparticles, according to a recent study. Reducing airborne nanoparticle contamination to acceptable levels can be achieved by using a workplace filter ventilation system and personal respirators.

The health impacts of consuming food that has been grown using cadmium-contaminated fertilisers are an increasing concern. New Danish research has estimated that the annual monetary cost of these impacts is €15.53 per km2 of agricultural land treated with mineral fertilisers. This cost rises to €37.04 per km2 if pig manure is used.

A growing body of evidence suggests that endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) are contributing to declines in fertility. This case-control study found that EDCs were associated with changes to sex hormones and risk of subfertility in men. The researchers say environmental levels of these chemicals should be reduced to protect male fertility.

Pesticide exposure can have negative impacts on many species and is a major threat to biodiversity. A new study is one of few to assess the risks specifically for European reptiles. The results suggest that at least one third of European reptile species are at high risk of exposure, with lizards showing the highest sensitivity to pesticides.

Fertilisers have boosted crop yields but at the same time can have negative effects on the environment. This study investigates fertiliser ‘ecoinnovations’, with reduced environmental impact, in Germany. By gathering the views of experts, producers, traders and farmers, the researchers make recommendations for increasing uptake of environmentally friendly fertilisers, including increasing knowledge and awareness among traders and farmers.

Environmental pollution is putting amphibians and reptiles at risk, yet these animals are not included in regulations regarding the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides. The extent to which other species already used in pesticide toxicity assessment (including fish, birds and mammals) can serve as effective surrogates is currently under debate. This study conducts a systematic review of the available literature. The results reveal a positive correlation between toxicity recorded on fish and aquatic amphibians, but indicate that birds and mammals are generally not good surrogates for reptiles and terrestrial amphibians. Moreover, some chemical-dependent trends were detected, with a number of insecticides found to be more toxic to amphibians or reptiles than to potential surrogates. These findings highlight an urgent need for further research to reduce uncertainties and contribute to future policymaking regarding the protection of amphibians and reptiles from potentially harmful pesticides.

Sulphur and nitrogen emissions have been significantly reduced across Europe in recent decades, but a recent study from Sweden finds that some forest soils are still struggling to recover from the acidifying effects of the pollutants. Some areas are also at risk of nitrogen leaching from soils into surface waters.

Better hydrogen production could be on the horizon thanks to a cheap new way of making a key component of electrolysers with a 3D printer, a new study suggests. This achievement could speed-up the development of electrolysis, a method of extracting hydrogen from water.