Gregory Cox.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 584--606.

Abstract:
This paper establishes the argmin of a random objective function to be unique almost surely. This paper first formulates a general result that proves almost sure uniqueness without convexity of the objective function. The general result is then applied to a variety of applications in statistics. Four applications are discussed, including uniqueness of M-estimators, both classical likelihood and penalized likelihood estimators, and two applications of the argmin theorem, threshold regression and weak identification.

Byron C. Jaeger, D. Leann Long, Dustin M. Long, Mario Sims, Jeff M. Szychowski, Yuan-I Min, Leslie A. Mcclure, George Howard, Noah Simon.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1847--1883.

Abstract:
We introduce and evaluate the oblique random survival forest (ORSF). The ORSF is an ensemble method for right-censored survival data that uses linear combinations of input variables to recursively partition a set of training data. Regularized Cox proportional hazard models are used to identify linear combinations of input variables in each recursive partitioning step. Benchmark results using simulated and real data indicate that the ORSF’s predicted risk function has high prognostic value in comparison to random survival forests, conditional inference forests, regression and boosting. In an application to data from the Jackson Heart Study, we demonstrate variable and partial dependence using the ORSF and highlight characteristics of its ten-year predicted risk function for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events (ASCVD; stroke, coronary heart disease). We present visualizations comparing variable and partial effect estimation according to the ORSF, the conditional inference forest, and the Pooled Cohort Risk equations. The obliqueRSF R package, which provides functions to fit the ORSF and create variable and partial dependence plots, is available on the comprehensive R archive network (CRAN).

Kay Bogerd, Rui M. Castro, Remco van der Hofstad.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 253--285.

Abstract:
We study the asymptotic behavior of the clique number in rank-1 inhomogeneous random graphs, where edge probabilities between vertices are roughly proportional to the product of their vertex weights. We show that the clique number is concentrated on at most two consecutive integers, for which we provide an expression. Interestingly, the order of the clique number is primarily determined by the overall edge density, with the inhomogeneity only affecting multiplicative constants or adding at most a $log log (n)$ multiplicative factor. For sparse enough graphs the clique number is always bounded and the effect of inhomogeneity completely vanishes.

French translation of the Annual Economic Report 2018 of the BIS, June 2018 - Les responsables des politiques publiques peuvent prolonger la phase de croissance actuelle en engageant des réformes structurelles, en restaurant les marges de manœuvre monétaires et budgétaires pour faire face aux menaces futures et en encourageant une mise en œuvre rapide des réformes réglementaires, indique la Banque des Règlements Internationaux (BRI) dans son Rapport économique annuel.

French translation of speech delivered by Mr Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the BIS, on the occasion of the Bank's Annual General Meeting, Basel, 24 June 2018. Mesdames et Messieurs, j'ai le plaisir de vous présenter aujourd'hui la première édition du Rapport économique annuel de la BRI. Les trois premiers chapitres analysent les évolutions, perspectives et risques de l'économie mondiale, en s'attachant plus particulièrement à la politique monétaire et aux réformes de la réglementation financière, aux marchés et aux acteurs de l'intermédiation. Nous consacrons deux chapitres spéciaux à des enjeux actuels : une analyse des dispositifs macroprudentiels d'une part, une étude relative aux cryptomonnaies d'autre part....

French translation of press release - the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is finalising stress-testing principles, reviews ways to stop regulatory arbitrage behaviour, agrees on annual G-SIB list, discusses leverage ratio, crypto-assets, market risk framework and implementation, 20 September 2018.

French translation of BIS Papers No 99 - Central banks and debt: emerging risks to the effectiveness of monetary policy in Africa?, October 2018.

French translation of the BIS press release on the presentation of the Annual Economic Report 2019, 30 June 2019. La politique monétaire ne peut plus être le principal moteur de la croissance économique, et d'autres leviers de politique publique doivent être actionnés pour faire en sorte que l'économie mondiale connaisse une dynamique durable ...

Once the search has begun, something will be found

Items recovered include fossils, paintings, ancient coins, ceramics and jewelry

Residents can now order up to two bottles of wine, 24 cans of beer or more than a litre of spirits from local restaurants and bars.

The N.W.T. and Nunavut Workers’ Safety and Compensation Commission says it filed multiple charges in the Nunavut Court of Justice under the Nunavut Safety Act on May 1.

The village of La Loche is calling on the provincial government to force the closure of liquor stores in the community, which is in the throes of a COVID-19 outbreak. 

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The liquidity trap is synonymous with ineffective monetary policy. The common wisdom is that, as the short-term interest rate nears its effective lower bound, monetary policy cannot do much to stimulate the economy. However, central banks have resorted to alternative instruments, such as QE, credit easing and forward guidance.

The Covid-19 shock is placing enormous strains on corporates cash buffers. Corporate financial statements from 2019 suggest that 50% of firms do not have sufficient cash to cover total debt servicing costs over the coming year. Credit lines could provide firms with additional liquidity. On average undrawn credit stood around 120% of debt servicing costs at end 2019. However, access is uneven and banks may be reluctant to renew or extend them in the current environment. Sticky operating expenses result in many firms running operating losses, placing an additional burden on cash buffers. Estimates indicate that following a 10% drop in revenues, operating expenses only fall by 6% on average. Simulations suggest that if revenues fall by 25% in 2020, then closing the entire funding gap with debt would raise firm leverage by around 10 percentage points.

US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 4% year on year at end-June 2019, to reach $11.9 trillion. Foreign currency credit denominated in euros and Japanese yen continued to expand at a faster pace than that in US dollars, growing at annual rates of 9% and 8%, respectively. US dollar credit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) grew at an annual rate of 2% (to reach $3.7 trillion), though growth varied substantially across regions.

US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 5% year on year at end-September 2019, to reach $12.1 trillion. Euro-denominated credit outside the euro area continued to expand at a fast pace (9%). In contrast, the growth rate of yen-denominated credit outside Japan fell to 1%. Strong debt securities issuance drove expansions in US dollar and euro credit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). US dollar credit to EMDEs grew at an annual rate of 3% (to reach $3.8 trillion); euro credit to EMDEs expanded by 9% (to reach €0.7 trillion).

US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 6% in 2019, to reach $12.2 trillion at end-2019. The annual growth rate of euro-denominated credit outside the euro area slowed to 6%, while that of yen-denominated credit outside Japan turned negative (-1%). In 2019, euro-denominated credit overtook US dollar-denominated credit as the largest stock of foreign currency credit to emerging Europe. The debt securities share in US dollar credit outside the United States has risen considerably over the past decade across a number of major borrowing regions.

The term global liquidity is used by the BIS to mean the ease of financing in global financial markets. Credit is among the key indicators of global liquidity, and is the focus of the quarterly indicators estimated by the BIS.

The CFL and CFL Players' Association have halted discussions on potential contingency plans for the 2020 campaign due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The 2020 NFL Draft was the most watched ever, with more than 55 million U.S. viewers tuning in during the unique three-day event.

We develop a parsimonious model to study the effect of regulations aimed at reducing counterparty risk on the structure of over-the-counter securities markets. We find that such regulations promote entry of dealers, thus fostering competition and lowering spreads. Greater competition, however, has an indirect negative effect on market-making profitability.

Bank for International Settlements BIS Working Papers by Francesca Carapella and Cyril Monnet

European Central Bank Working Papers by Marien Ferdinandusse, Maximilian Freier and Annukka Ristiniemi

CME will be updating liquidity parameters for Interest Rate Swap contracts denominated in BRL and MXN. These changes only impact portfolios with larger BRL or MXN exposures. For MXN, the impact to liquidity add-on is approx. 5-10% for portfolios with aggregated DV01 above 100M+ DV01 in local currency. For BRL, the impact to liquidity add-on is 30%+ for portfolios with aggregated DV01 above 10M+ in local currency. Based on current exposures, CME Clearing expects that there will be no impact to existing portfolios at this time. These changes will be available for testing in our New Release environment April 29, 2020, with a production date of May 4, 2020.

Click here for the full text of the advisory

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Hailed as transitional by local observers, the latest polls were expected to usher in a new type of leadership in FRELIMO, with Filipe Nyussi being the first non-liberation northern leader in a southern dominated elite; they would also see opposition parties RENAMO and MDM alter their strategies and become more politically relevant; and would possibly be the last polls before the country became a mass resource-producing economy. However, the Presidential and parliamentary elections of 15 October have made the political setting, the prospects for improved governance and wealth redistribution more opaque, and the implementation of the new peace agreement harder.

Rome Newsroom, May 3, 2020 / 08:30 am (CNA).- The liquefaction of the blood of the early Church martyr St. Januarius occurred Saturday amid the coronavirus lockdown, leading the Archbishop of Naples to bless the city with the miraculous relic.

“Dear friends, I have a big announcement to make: even in this time of coronavirus, the Lord through the intercession of St. Januarius has liquified the blood!" Cardinal Crescenzio Sepe said May 2.

Cardinal Sepe, the Archbishop of Naples, offered a Mass via video livestream from the Cathedral of the Assumption of Mary to celebrate the recurring miracle, and then used the relic of the liquified blood to bless the city.

“How many times our saint has intervened to save us from the plague, from cholera. St. Januarius is the true soul of Naples,” he said in his homily.

St. Januarius, or San Gennaro in Italian, the patron of Naples, was a bishop of the city in the third century, whose bones and blood are preserved in the cathedral as relics. He is believed to have been martyred during Diocletian persecution.

The reputed miracle is locally known and accepted, though has not been the subject of official Church recognition. The liquefaction reportedly happens at least three times a year: Sept. 19, the saint's feast day, the Saturday before the first Sunday of May, and Dec. 16, the anniversary of the 1631 eruption of Mount Vesuvius.

During the miracle, the dried, red-colored mass confined to one side of the reliquary becomes blood that covers the entire glass. In local lore, the failure of the blood to liquefy signals war, famine, disease or other disaster.

“Naples has never given up in the face of the misfortunes that have affected it,” Sepe said.

The cardinal praised the health care workers who are serving those infected by the coronavirus in the city. Naples is the capital of the region of Campania, where 4,459 people have been documented with COVID-19 by the Italian Ministry of Health.

“But there is another possible epidemic that worries me in the most dangerous neighborhoods in the city," Sepe said, referring to the Camorra, the Neapolitan mafia.

“There are those who are good at making a fortune in times of epidemic. … Let’s move, intervene immediately, because the underworld is faster than our bureaucracy. The Camorra does not wait. It is up to us to get rid of all [criminal] organizations. We must overcome and affirm the right to hope,” the cardinal said.

Amid Italy’s lockdown, anti-mafia experts have warned that Italy’s criminal organizations could take advantage of the redirection of police resources, and profit from the government stimulus that could inadvertently fund mafia-controlled industries.

The coronavirus lockdown also prevented the traditional procession for the miracle of St. Januarius from taking place. This procession had even continued in Naples during World War II, according to ACI Stampa.

Public Masses have not been allowed in Italy for the past eight weeks under the country’s coronavirus restrictions. 

The president of the Italian bishops’ conference, Cardinal Gualtiero Bassetti said May 2 that the bishops had reached an agreement with the government, and that he expects public Masses to resume “in the coming weeks” if the infection curve flattens.

“As a Church, we have certainly shared in suffering the limitations imposed to protect the health of all,” he said.

Current human milk fortifiers fail to provide the higher protein intake that is now recommended for feeding human milk–fed infants. There is a desire to avoid the use of powdered products when feeding these infants.

A new ultraconcentrated liquid human milk fortifier that provides more protein than current powdered fortifiers is safe and supports better growth in human milk–fed infants than a powdered fortifier. (Read the full article)

Feeding difficulties often emerge during the neonatal period and affect neonatal growth. Growth throughout the first years of life is associated with children’s IQ scores and risk of behavioral problems.

Among infants born full term (≥37 weeks’ gestation) with birth weight ≥2500 g, gain in weight and head circumference during the neonatal period is associated with higher IQ, but not with behavior at 6.5 years of age. (Read the full article)

Due to reports of unintentional overdoses, in 2011 the US Food and Drug Administration finalized voluntary recommendations for dosing devices included with over-the-counter (OTC) liquid medications. The Consumer Healthcare Products Association previously endorsed similar recommendations for devices and dosing directions.

This study assessed dosing directions and devices for national brand name OTC liquid medications, available after a voluntary FDA guidance, and found high levels of adherence to most recommendations. Further improvement efforts should prioritize recommendations directly addressing potential dosing errors. (Read the full article)

Barcelona made the UEFA Women's Champions League final and could reach the men's decider too, setting up an unprecedented feat.

Strategic partnerships could be used to create win-win outcomes, says Sifiso Skenjana.

La fièvre des élections s’empare de l’Afrique centrale. Pour la seconde fois depuis la fin des guerres qui ont dévasté la région, les scrutins s’enchaînent au Burundi, au Rwanda, en République centrafricaine et au Congo.

Alors que se préparent les célébrations du cinquantenaire de l’indépendance de la République démocratique du Congo, le 30 juin prochain, deux événements très récents viennent rappeler l’extrême fragilité du processus de reconstruction de l’Etat entrepris depuis l’élection de Joseph Kabila en 2006, et les risques existants pour la stabilité du pays.

Vu du centre de l’Afrique – Tchad, République centrafricaine (RCA) et RD Congo –, le cinquantenaire des indépendances est un anniversaire à l’envers : on en parle davantage à Paris et Bruxelles qu’à N’Djamena, Bangui et Kinshasa. Sans doute parce que, en Europe, il s’agit avant tout de gérer des diasporas turbulentes et une relation bilatérale devenue épineuse tandis que, dans les capitales africaines, il s’agit d’éviter à tout prix le droit d’inventaire.

Le processus électoral hors délai constitutionnel qui se déroule depuis le 23 janvier en Centrafrique n'est pas seulement une nouvelle opportunité manquée pour la démocratisation du pays mais c'est aussi un risque sérieux pour la paix.

La rechute est le risque majeur des pays post-conflit et l'une des principales raisons de cette rechute s'appelle la corruption.

L’indifférence internationale est un facteur aggravant pour les conflits dans les petits pays. Cependant, en ce qui concerne la République centrafricaine (RCA), le contexte est paradoxalement différent.

Depuis jeudi et l’attaque de Bangui par les groupes anti-balaka qui viennent de province et sont composés de villageois et d’anciens militaires constitués en milices d’autodéfense, un calme précaire est revenu dans la capitale centrafricaine grâce au déploiement des militaires français.

Incapable d’agir quand Crisis Group et d’autres organisations envoyaient des signaux d’alerte et qualifiaient la Centrafrique d’Etat fantôme, la communauté internationale doit dorénavant s’impliquer massivement, à des coûts largement supérieurs, suite aux pertes humaines considérables et aux déplacements massifs de population, et avec des chances de succès beaucoup plus faibles.

En Centrafrique, la course aux élections qui prévoit des scrutins présidentiel et législatif avant la fin de l’année est aussi irréaliste que dangereuse. Alors que le plan initial de la transition a complètement déraillé, l’obstination des internationaux, et plus particulièrement de la France, à faire voter les Centrafricains à l’ombre des groupes armés, avec une administration territoriale squelettique et des haines inter-communautaires tenaces ressemble plus à une fuite en avant qu’à un processus de transition accompli.

As resistance to artemisinins (current frontline drugs in malaria treatment) emerges in south East Asia, there is an urgent need to identify the genetic determinants and understand the molecular mechanisms underpinning such resistance. Such insights could lead to prospective interventions to contain resistance and prevent the eventual spread to other malaria endemic regions. Artemisinin reduced susceptibility in South East Asia (SEA) has been primarily linked to mutations in P. falciparum Kelch-13, which is currently widely recognised as a molecular marker of artemisinin resistance. However, 2 mutations in a ubiquitin hydrolase, UBP-1, have been previously associated with artemisinin reduced susceptibility in a rodent model of malaria and some cases of UBP-1 mutation variants associating with artemisinin treatment failure have been reported in Africa and SEA. In this study, we have employed CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing and pre-emptive drug pressures to test these artemisinin susceptibility associated mutations in UBP-1 in P. berghei sensitive lines in vivo. Using these approaches, we have shown that the V2721F UBP-1 mutation results in reduced artemisinin susceptibility, while the V2752F mutation results in resistance to chloroquine and moderately impacts tolerance to artemisinins. Genetic reversal of the V2752F mutation restored chloroquine sensitivity in these mutant lines while simultaneous introduction of both mutations could not be achieved and appears to be lethal. Interestingly, these mutations carry a detrimental growth defect, which would possibly explain their lack of expansion in natural infection settings. Our work has provided independent experimental evidence on the role of UBP-1 in modulating parasite responses to artemisinin and chloroquine under in vivo conditions.