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Virtual Roundtable: The End of Globalism? Remaining Interconnected While Under Increased Pressure to Isolate

Invitation Only Research Event

30 March 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Zoom Audio Call

Event participants

Fred Hochberg, Chairman and President, Export-Import Bank of the United States, 2009 -17
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

This event is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum. We would like to take this opportunity to to thank founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo plc and EY for their generous support of the forum. 

US and Americas Programme




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Webinar: Does COVID-19 Spell the End of America's Interest in Globalization?

Research Event

19 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm
Add to Calendar
Dr Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO, New America
Professor Stephen Walt, Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House
This  event is  part of the US and Americas Programme Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US and the State of the World and will take place virtually only.
 
Please note this event is taking place between 2pm to 3pm BST.

US and Americas Programme

Department/project




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Webinar: Coronavirus, Globalization and Global Supply Chains

Corporate Members Event Webinar

2 June 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm
Add to Calendar

Professor Ian Goldin, Professor of Globalisation and Development, University of Oxford; Director, Oxford Martin Programme on Technological and Economic Change

Further speakers to be announced.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the implications of pre-existing global trends such as rising protectionism and mounting trade tensions for the future of economic globalization. The global health crisis has since led to widespread lockdowns, paralysed supply chains and interrupted shipments of medical equipment between trade partners thereby further exposing the vulnerabilities of an integrated global economy

Against this backdrop, the panellists will assess the impact of the coronavirus on economic globalization and global supply chains. To what extent might the health emergency encourage a re-evaluation of economic integration? How should governments and industries prepare for a resumption of activities under the auspices of a ‘new normal’ where ‘just-in-time’ methods of production may not be resilient enough to systemic shocks and challenges? Can a globalized supply and demand system become more resilient to shocks? And with China beginning to recover from the crisis, what might be the role of Chinese industry in rebooting global supply chains?

This event is part of a fortnightly series of 'Business in Focus' webinars reflecting on the impact of COVID-19 on areas of particular professional interest for our corporate members and giving circles.

Not a corporate member? Find out more.




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Webinar: Is It All Over For Globalization?

Research Event

15 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

James Crabtree, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme
Will Hutton, Political Economist; Principal, Hertford College Oxford 
Chair: Champa Patel, Director, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House

The coronavirus pandemic has led many to predict the end of globalization. Confronted with unprecedented social and economic challenges, countries are prioritizing their own citizens. Now, more than ever, international cooperation is necessary but, amidst the rise of nationalist-populist governments, global partnerships are absent or faltering. And as economies grind to a halt, so does international commerce — particularly in trade-dependent Asia, a region whose rise drove the period of 'hyper-globalization' which preceded the global financial crisis. 

Yet there are other possible futures too. The level of scientific collaboration and information-sharing now underway in search of a vaccine is unprecedented, and after a hesitant beginning the major powers have woken up to the importance of concerted economic stimuli. The virus may in some ways have the paradoxical result of bringing countries together, not driving them apart. Rather than causing its demise, it could help begin a new period in which globalization is not as deep, but at least is better managed and more equitable? Could this be the catalyst for a new coming together at home and abroad?

In this webinar, speakers debate what impact the COVID-19 pandemic will have on the future of globalization, both in Asia and around the world.

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761




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CBD News: CBD provides free tool to identify win-win areas for REDD and biodiversity. The Bali Action plan under the United Nations FCCC encourages efforts to reduce emissions from reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), while




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CBD News: Statement by Mr Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity, on the occasion of the United Nations Environment Programme Workshop on Journalism and The Environment, Bali, 22 February 2010.




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CBD News: Statement by Mr. Ahmed Djoghlaf, CBD Executive Secretary, on the occasion of the Opening of the Fourth Session of the Governing Body of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, 14 March 2011, Bali, Indonesia.




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Cannibalism helps invading invertebrates survive severe conditions

(University of Southern Denmark) Investing in the future: Researchers show how cannibalism among the invasive comb jelly enables adults to survive severe conditions at the edge of their ecological range with implications for the use and evolutionary origins of cannibalism.




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Virtual Roundtable: The End of Globalism? Remaining Interconnected While Under Increased Pressure to Isolate

Invitation Only Research Event

30 March 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Zoom Audio Call

Event participants

Fred Hochberg, Chairman and President, Export-Import Bank of the United States, 2009 -17
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

This event is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum. We would like to take this opportunity to to thank founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo plc and EY for their generous support of the forum. 

US and Americas Programme




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Webinar: Does COVID-19 Spell the End of America's Interest in Globalization?

Research Event

19 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm
Add to Calendar
Dr Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO, New America
Professor Stephen Walt, Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House
This  event is  part of the US and Americas Programme Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US and the State of the World and will take place virtually only.
 
Please note this event is taking place between 2pm to 3pm BST.

US and Americas Programme

Department/project




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Jamaican musician finds fulfilment while stuck in Bali

LOCAL MUSICIAN Janine JKUHL’s two-month-long immersive creative residency programme in Bali, Indonesia, has been extended indefinitely, or at least until the world has the COVID-19 spread under control and international airports open up to...




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Globalization of Diabetes: The role of diet, lifestyle, and genes

Frank B. Hu
Jun 1, 2011; 34:1249-1257
Kelly West Award Lecture




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Globalization of Diabetes: The role of diet, lifestyle, and genes

Frank B. Hu
Jun 1, 2011; 34:1249-1257
Kelly West Award Lecture




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Cannibalism helps comb jellies survive harsh conditions, invade new environs

The warty comb jelly is native to the western Atlantic, but in recent decades, it has invaded the waters of Eurasia. New research suggests cannibalism is key to the species' ability to move into new environs.




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Globalizing capital : a history of the international monetary system

Eichengreen, Barry J., author.
9780691193908 (paperback)




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David Torrance: The rise of political tribalism has little to do with policy and everything to do with identity

A couple of weeks ago, I attended an “in conversation” event with the American sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild at Harvard University.




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Letters: Yet another generation sacrificed on the altar of globalisation

THE Herald has reported (May 6) on another economically and socially “lost generation” of children and young people due to Covid-19.




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The Globalization of Pediatric Clinical Trials

There is concern about the potential exploitation of children who are enrolled into clinical trials in developing and transition countries. Previous studies of globalization have only examined pediatric drug trials, and only 1 study has provided patient-level data by country.

The involvement of developing and transition countries depends on the product or indication under investigation and is greater for vaccines than for drugs or biologicals. Compared with our previous analysis, involvement of these countries in pediatric drug development has decreased. (Read the full article)




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Bigg Boss 13: Sidharth Shukla's late 'Balika Vadhu' co-star Pratyusha Banerjee's mom shared he visited their house once & ate litti-chokha!

The latest promos of the ongoing Bigg Boss 13 show reveal that Rashami Desai's alleged boyfriend Arhaan Khan who entered as wild card contestant along with Hindustani Bhau(Vikas Fhatak), Khesari Lal Yadav, Shefali Jariwala, Himanshi Khurana and Tehseen Poonawalla, has already challenged the thick jodi of BB 13, Sidharth Shukla




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News18 Urdu: Latest News Balia

visit News18 Urdu for latest news, breaking news, news headlines and updates from Balia on politics, sports, entertainment, cricket, crime and more.




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EWC Conference Underway in Bali

EWC Conference Underway in Bali

Among the conference speakers was Governor Linda Lingle of Hawaii.

HONOLULU (Nov. 13) – The EWC/EWCA 2008 International Conference got underway yesterday in Bali, Indonesia, with welcoming remarks by the Governor of Bali, the U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia and the Indonesian Coordinating Minister for People’s Welfare, followed by the conference’s keynote address by East-West Center President Charles E. Morrison.




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Early Registration for Bali EWCA Conference Ends June 30

Early Registration for Bali EWCA Conference Ends June 30
The 2008 EWCA International Conference in Bali, Indonesia, is just five months away! Early registration for the conference ends on June 30, so register now to get the discounted rate of $175 for EWCA members and guests, UH alums, and Fulbrighters, and $225 for non-EWCA members. Starting July 1, the registration rate will increase by $25. Registration is easy – just click here .




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EWC Community Members Aid Voyaging Canoe Hokule‘a’s Unprecedented Visit to Bali

HONOLULU (Aug. 3, 2015) -- With the Hawaiian Voyaging Canoe Hokule‘a now sailing out of the Pacific for the very first time and currently in Bali, Indonesia, for the canoe’s only scheduled Asian stop on its unprecedented worldwide voyage, a number of East-West Center participants, alumni and community members are in Bali with the canoe, or helped plan the visit.




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EWC Conference Gets Underway in Bali

International Conference of Asia Pacific Scholars, Officials and Business Leaders Gets Underway in Bali
HONOLULU (Nov. 13) – An international conference of scholars, officials, educators and business leaders got underway Thursday in Bali, Indonesia, with welcoming remarks by the Governor of Bali, the U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia and the Indonesian Coordinating Minister for People’s Welfare, followed by the conference’s keynote address by East-West Center President Charles E. Morrison.

The Honorable Aburizal Bakrie, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for People’s Welfare, told the more that 500 assembled scholars, officials and business professionals – most of whom are Center alumni – that the current global economic crisis serves as a powerful reminder “of the need to improve our cooperative efforts, of our bonds together, of the common mechanisms that we can use to solve our problems.”




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Asia Pacific Scholars, Official and Business Leaders to Gather at International Conference in Bali

Asia Pacific Scholars, Officials and Business Leaders to Gather at International Conference in Bali
HONOLULU (Sept. 30) -- Nearly 500 scholars, officials, educators and business leaders will gather in Bali November 13-15 for an international conference on the theme of "Building an Asia Pacific Community: Unity in Diversity."

Conference sessions will cover current regional issues, including international relations, security, democracy and Islam, global warming, volunteerism, gender issues, innovation, health, business, and social and cultural issues.

Among the featured speakers will be the new governor of Bali; Indonesia’s ministers of trade, people’s welfare and women’s empowerment; the U.S. ambassador to Indonesia; the governor of Hawaii; the president of the East-West Center; and business leaders.




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South Korean Teachers Visiting U.S. Schools to Share Globalized Teaching Practices

HONOLULU (Jan. 10, 2014) – Twenty K-12 educators from South Korea have arrived at the East-West Center to begin a month of residencies in U.S. school communities in Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts and Vermont. The ROK-US Teacher Exchange Program global learning and school immersion program is coordinated by EWC’s AsiaPacificEd Program with funding from the Asia-Pacific Centre of Education for International Understanding under the auspices of UNESCO and the Republic of Korea’s Ministry of Education. Later this year, American teachers from the U.S. host schools will travel to Korea for reciprocal exchange and learning.




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Future of Our Global Economy: The Beginning of De-Globalization

The corona crisis is changing the global economy. Production security is growing more important than efficiency. Here is what that might look like.




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Cholistan land probe: NAB sends questionnaires to Shahbaz Sharif, Rana Sanaullah, Balighur Rehman

ISLAMABAD: The National Accountability Bureau Multan has sent a questionnaire to Opposition Leader in the National Assembly and President PML-N Shahbaz Sharif, ex-minister of state Balighur Rehman,...

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Cholistan land probe: NAB sends questionnaires to Shahbaz, Sanaullah, Baligh

ISLAMABAD: The National Accountability Bureau Multan has sent a questionnaire to Opposition Leader in the National Assembly and President PML-N Shahbaz Sharif, ex-minister of state Balighur Rehman, former MNA Chaudhry Umair Mehmood and former law minister Punjab Rana Sanaullah Khan in the matter...




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Cholistan land probe: NAB sends questionnaires to Shahbaz, Sana, Baligh

ISLAMABAD: The National Accountability Bureau Multan has sent a questionnaire to Opposition Leader in the National Assembly and President PML-N Shahbaz Sharif, ex-minister of state Balighur Rehman, former MNA Chaudhry Umair Mehmood and former law minister Punjab Rana Sanaullah Khan in the matter...




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Natural Language Processing Dates Back to Kabbalist Mystics

Long before NLP became a hot field in AI, people devised rules and machines to manipulate language



  • robotics
  • robotics/artificial-intelligence

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Invasive 'comb' jellyfish cannibalize their young when food is scarce, study reveals

An strange, invasive species of jellyfish in Europe eats its own young when food is low, a new study claims.




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Sydney woman Susan Leslie O'Brien sentenced after killing Balinese teenager with car

Sydney woman Susan Leslie O'Brien may be home before Christmas after being sentenced to three-and-a-half months in jail for hitting and killing a Balinese teenager with her car.




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Foxtel 'threatened with extinction' within a few years as streaming services cannibalise revenue

Under siege from much cheaper rivals and with lenders unwilling to support it, pay TV operator Foxtel is increasingly looking like a threatened species.




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Festering global problems require more globalized financing


If the vision of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is that Mother Earth is heading for trouble and we must collectively solve global problems, then the underfunding of global public goods (GPGs) must be addressed. As the world becomes increasingly globalized, the need for global public goods increases: from action on climate change, financial stability, limiting the spread of diseases, management of conflicts, responding to natural disasters, terrorism, and cyber-warfare. At some level even the eradication of extreme poverty and more inclusive and sustainable development could be considered a global public good because more poverty and unequal development breeds conflict, increases environmental stress, state failure, terrorism, and piracy, thereby increasing the need for the global public goods required to address these issues.

Missing in the recently agreed Addis Ababa Action Agenda (AAAA) and in the Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) are steps that should be taken at a global level that will positively impact many countries, such as:

  • A global set of standards on migration to curb exploitation and human rights standards for the migrant population;
  • Better coordination of monetary and fiscal policies so as to avoid huge volatility in financial markets, which have large costs on vulnerable countries;
  • Strengthened global disaster response mechanisms to handle increasing climate volatility and natural disasters;
  • No agreement on a global tax institution demanded by many developing countries and civil society groups; and,
  • No progress on carbon taxation.

There is considerable underfinancing of GPGs as it is difficult to get countries to pay for activities outside their borders. Official Development Assistance (ODA) has fallen well short of the agreed target of 0.7 percent of GDP—and in fact is closer to just 0.2 percent. GPG funding from ODA is estimated at only about 10 percent of the total. This problem even afflicts other sources of financing. Multilateral development bank (MDB) financing also underfunds regional, multi-country projects for addressing regional public goods as countries are unwilling to use their country allocations for multi-country projects even if the return on them is higher than the marginal country project.

Global thematic funds to support specific development challenges—Global Alliance for Vaccination and Inoculation (GAVI), Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM), Global Environmental Fund (GEF) and earlier funds like the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)—have been successful in addressing specific development challenges through projects in specific countries, especially for agriculture, the environment, and health. They have also drawn in private philanthropic financing in addition to public resources. But global funding for global public goods has not had the same success, and systematic and sustained financing for disasters, biodiversity, desertification, and even for Ebola outbreaks has been difficult.

The Green Climate Fund, which will begin its work this year and will devote 50:50 share of funding for adaptation and mitigation has very limited funding so far – despite the commitment to provide $ 100 billion per year over and above ODA. But neither the AAAA, nor the SDG’s address many of the trade-offs involved between climate change and poverty eradication. COP 21 also did not provide greater guidance on these matters – despite high expectations that it would. Given the need for rapid economic growth to eradicate poverty for the LDC’s  as well as their need to deal with huge adaptation costs, it probably makes sense not to focus excessively on mitigation in these countries. These countries would increase their global carbon footprint by at best 2-3 percent of the total carbon emissions. The big tradeoffs will arise in the need for rapid growth in middle-income countries to address poverty and their increased emissions, which will accompany faster growth.

Protection of biodiversity is given specific mention in the AAAA, and the Global Strategic Plan for Biodiversity for 2011-20 is endorsed along with its 20 Aichi biodiversity targets. But progress in meeting these targets is slow and at current trends unlikely to be achieved. The AAAA does not address this slow progress or suggest ways to accelerate it. It does endorse the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification and the African Union Green Wall Initiative; but again with no specificity on how progress on these commitments will be accelerated. The same is true of the attention on oceans and marine resources, where the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea is mentioned but with no concrete steps on how to finance, enforce, and protect vulnerable areas, especially the small island developing states (SIDS).

Private philanthropic foundations have played important catalytic roles, such as efforts by the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation to help jump-start the Green Revolution in the 1960’s, and the eventual creation of the CGIAR. A somewhat similar role has been played by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for global public health. But no such foundations exist for many underfunded issues, such as disaster relief, peacebuilding, and desertification. These types of activities can be much better funded by more globalized revenue sources. The AAAA does not even mention the need for any such revenue sources.

A key GPG is peacekeeping, international security, and the prevention of conflict. Surprisingly, military spending is also not touched upon in the AAAA but has increased sharply. It dropped in the late 1990s following the end of the Cold War, from $1.5 trillion to around $1 trillion globally, but has increased again to almost $ 2 trillion today. Cutting military expenditure—especially in many developing countries where it exceeds 4 percent of GDP—would be an important step and shifting some of those resources to peacekeeping and conflict prevention would improve public spending.

With the AAAA pushing for new modes of financing, its surprising that for GPG financing more global sources of finance are not considered. At least four such options exist and could go a long way towards financing the SDGs. The first is a carbon tax or auctioning of carbon emissions permits. This is an idea with huge appeal as it will also help dissuade use of fossil fuels and could lower emissions globally, but is opposed by all the major emitters. Carbon taxes have been used in several countries to reduce fossil fuel use without any damage to long-term growth. Emission permits have also been used in some countries to reduce emissions of some harmful chemicals. But they have not been used internationally.

The second is a so-called “Tobin tax,” a tax on all foreign exchange transactions, which might also discourage destabilizing short-term volatile capital movements. The third is to add a pollution tax on all shipping and air travel – whose pollutions costs are not fully captured by existing taxes and fees imposed on them. The fourth is to allow issuance of SDRs to finance GPG’s.

Unfortunately, all these proposals are currently opposed by the major G-20 countries for various reasons. While several European countries—and even some developing ones—have introduced carbon taxes, still more remain opposed to carbon taxation. The Tobin tax idea has been around now for several decades and is considered an anti-globalization proposal even if its revenues were to be used to finance GPGs.  At times in the past, some countries have imposed a tax on foreign exchange transactions, with the explicit purpose of slowing down volatility in capital markets.

Global taxation has the connotation of supra-nationality, which many rich country legislatures—especially in the U.S.—would oppose. One way around this might be to specify how these resources would be used or to use them through MDBs where the richer countries have a controlling vote. To some extent the Global programs—GAVI, GFATM, CGIAR, and now the Green Climate Fund—have done that, but their financing remains much too dependent on national budgets and not on automatic revenue-raising mechanisms. National lotteries have been used in some countries to raise resources for specific causes; global lotteries could be an option for financing some specific global goods. But the world must move to some global means of revenue-raising if it wants to address GPGs seriously. Private financing, innovative financing, and public-private partnerships touted in the AAAA and COP21 can be crowded in, but without more international public financing to address market failure, financing the SDG’s will be difficult.

The world needs to heed Ben Franklin advice in another context “We must hang together or surely we will hang separately.”

Authors

  • Ajay Chhibber
     
 
 




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When globalization goes digital


American voters are angry. But while the ill effects of globalization top their list of grievances, nobody is well served when complex economic issues are reduced to bumper-sticker slogans – as they have been thus far in the presidential campaign.

It is unfair to dismiss concerns about globalization as unfounded. America deserves to have an honest debate about its effects. In order to yield constructive solutions, however, all sides will need to concede some inconvenient truths – and to recognize that globalization is not the same phenomenon it was 20 years ago.

Protectionists fail to see how the United States’ eroding industrial base is compatible with the principle that globalization boosts growth. But the evidence supporting that principle is too substantial to ignore.

Recent research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) echoes the findings of other academics: global flows of goods, foreign direct investment, and data have increased global GDP by roughly 10% compared to what it would have been had those flows never occurred. The extra value provided by globalization amounted to $7.8 trillion in 2014 alone.

And yet, the shuttered factories dotting America’s Midwestern “Rust Belt” are real. Even as globalization generates aggregate growth, it produces winners and losers. Exposing local industries to international competition spurs efficiency and innovation, but the resulting creative destruction exacts a substantial toll on families and communities.

Economists and policymakers alike are guilty of glossing over these distributional consequences. Countries that engage in free trade will find new channels for growth in the long run, the thinking goes, and workers who lose their jobs in one industry will find employment in another.

In the real world, however, this process is messy and protracted. Workers in a shrinking industry may need entirely new skills to find jobs in other sectors, and they may have to pack up their families and pull up deep roots to pursue these opportunities. It has taken a popular backlash against free trade for policymakers and the media to acknowledge the extent of this disruption.

That backlash should not have come as a surprise. Traditional labor-market policies and training systems have not been equal to the task of dealing with the large-scale changes caused by the twin forces of globalization and automation. The US needs concrete proposals for supporting workers caught up in structural transitions – and a willingness to consider fresh approaches, such as wage insurance.

Contrary to campaign rhetoric, simple protectionism would harm consumers. A recent study by the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers found that middle-class Americans gain more than a quarter of their purchasing power from trade. In any event, imposing tariffs on foreign goods will not bring back lost manufacturing jobs.

It is time to change the parameters of the debate and recognize that globalization has become an entirely different animal: The global goods trade has flattened for a variety of reasons, including plummeting commodity prices, sluggishness in many major economies, and a trend toward producing goods closer to the point of consumption. Cross-border flows of data, by contrast, have grown by a factor of 45 during the past decade, and now generate a greater economic impact than flows of traditional manufactured goods.

Digitization is changing everything: the nature of the goods changing hands, the universe of potential suppliers and customers, the method of delivery, and the capital and scale required to operate globally. It also means that globalization is no longer exclusively the domain of Fortune 500 firms.

Companies interacting with their foreign operations, suppliers, and customers account for a large and growing share of global Internet traffic. Already half of the world’s traded services are digitized, and 12% of the global goods trade is conducted via international e-commerce. E-commerce marketplaces such as Alibaba, Amazon, and eBay are turning millions of small enterprises into exporters. This remains an enormous untapped opportunity for the US, where fewer than 1% of companies export– a far lower share than in any other advanced economy.

Despite all the anti-trade rhetoric, it is crucial that Americans bear in mind that most of the world’s customers are overseas. Fast-growing emerging economies will be the biggest sources of consumption growth in the years ahead.

This would be the worst possible moment to erect barriers. The new digital landscape is still taking shape, and countries have an opportunity to redefine their comparative advantages. The US may have lost out as the world chased low labor costs; but it operates from a position of strength in a world defined by digital globalization.

There is real value in the seamless movement of innovation, information, goods, services, and – yes – people. As the US struggles to jump-start its economy, it cannot afford to seal itself off from an important source of growth.

US policymakers must take a nuanced, clear-eyed view of globalization, one that addresses its downsides more effectively, not only when it comes to lost jobs at home, but also when it comes to its trading partners’ labor and environmental standards. Above all, the US needs to stop retrying the past – and start focusing on how it can compete in the next era of globalization.

Editor's note: this piece first appeared on Project-Syndicate.org.

Publication: Project Syndicate
     
 
 




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Globalization: What the West can learn from Asia


Globalization has been hugely beneficial to Asia. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, and China have reaped lasting benefits from worldwide investment flows, knowledge exchanges, and rapid economic growth. And while globalization undoubtedly made the rich even richer, the poor also benefitted.

Several Asian economies saw the emergence of a large middle class and the virtual elimination of poverty. The rural poor received higher wages after finding better quality manufacturing jobs in urban centers. And with improvements in technology and expanded trade, there was optimism about job prospects. In ethnically diverse societies such as Malaysia, globalization contributed significantly to the reduction of racial tensions rather than exacerbate them, contrary to what is happening in the West.

There is no question that the West has also benefited from globalization. The United Kingdom and the United States have seen huge gains in the services sector, especially in financial services. However, the accompanying income inequality is of a different hue than in Asia. Younger, better educated workers located in cosmopolitan urban centers such as New York and London have seen a phenomenal increase in their income. On the other hand, older, less educated workers in the rusting industrial belts of northern England and America have lost their jobs to manufacturers overseas. Instead of jobs with good growth prospects enjoyed by several generations in the past, the quality of jobs has deteriorated and there is little hope among the rust belt’s working class that this situation can be turned around. Worst, there is a perception that politicians don’t care. The recent voting patterns in the U.S. and the U.K. are a clear reflection of this despondence.

How did Asia achieve a shared prosperity from globalization with consistent domestic political support while the rich countries have struggled and are suffering the political blowback? 

The answer may lie in the heavy investment made by Asian governments in human capital (education and health) to prepare the workforce to take advantage of the high wage manufacturing jobs created by globalized investment. This was complemented by public investment in infrastructure to continue to attract foreign investment. The fiscal deficits associated with large public investment in human capital and physical infrastructure were tolerated because the political and economic benefits of preparing the workforce for new jobs were considered worthwhile objectives.

Both the U.S. and the U.K, in contrast, have underinvested in infrastructure and in “skilling up” the labor force to make the transition to new and better jobs from the ones lost to lower wage workers in Asia.  In the U.K, it happened under the watch of the incumbent conservative government. While presenting to Parliament the result of the recent referendum to the European Union, Prime Minister David Cameron spoke proudly of leaving behind a sound economy resting on the pillar of a sharp fiscal retrenchment—low taxes and even lower public expenditure. One result of this “sound” economy is that a large number of people are stuck in dead-end jobs and are looking for opportunities to vent their frustration.

In the U.S., the Obama administration has been hemmed in by the recalcitrant Republican Congress. Badly needed public investment in health and education to prepare workers and an overdue upgrade of infrastructure to attract investment have been thwarted by a Congress wedded to fiscal austerity. This has prolonged the pain of transition to new jobs.

The long and painful transition to productive jobs has resulted in the clamor for reneging on globalization commitments. This is misplaced because protecting jobs that are best done elsewhere is not possible without putting curbs on investment. That would be moving towards a world that globalizes misery. There is thus no alternative to a proactive government that eases the transition to new jobs in rich countries.

Of course, Asia had the advantage of preparing its work force for known job streams. Rich countries, on the other hand, have to discover new productive jobs. However, we do know that discovery is more likely if education standards improve, physical infrastructure is cutting edge, and science and research are well-funded.  

Rich countries don’t have to give up on manufacturing as a source of employment. Germany has shown the way to creating high-end manufacturing jobs in a rich-country setting. It has a highly skilled work force that produces technology-intensive products which generate a large trade surplus. There is little support in Germany for reneging on global commitments.

Dying cities, dead-end jobs, and a seemingly uncaring government feed into the perception that living standards will continue to fall. Demagogues exploiting ethnicity point the finger at immigrants and have succeeded in directing rich-country worker ire at them. This is a far cry from the democratic vision rich democracies should aspire to and is not in any away a solution to these problems.  The protest should be aimed, instead, at elected governments to play their role in facilitating the transition to the next generation of jobs.     

The world has paid heavily for Europe’s nationalistic ambitions—colonial subjugation of Africa and Asia and the two world wars are the most egregious examples. The EU is an attempt to tame those impulses by seeking to cooperatively address common challenges instead of competing for narrower nationalistic objectives. The dissolution of the EU and the weakening of other multilateral institutions because of rich countries’ failure to rise up to the globalization challenge would be truly retrogressive. 

Authors

  • Ijaz Nabi
      
 
 




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LIVE WEBCAST – Pursuing justice in a globalized world: Reflections on the commitment of Madeleine K. Albright

On June 28, the Hague Institute for Global Justice, in partnership with the Brookings Institution and Municipality of the Hague, will host Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Lloyd Axworthy for the second annual Madeleine K. Albright Global Justice Lecture. Abi Williams, president of the Hague Institute, will give welcoming remarks and Ted Piccone, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, will moderate the discussion.

      
 
 




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Renovating democracy: Governing in the age of globalization and digital capitalism

The rise of populism in the West and the rise of China in the East have stirred a debate about the role of democracy in the international system. The impact of globalization and digital capitalism is forcing worldwide attention to the starker divide between the “haves” and the “have-nots,” challenging how we think about the…

       




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Brexit, twilight of globalization? Not quite, not yet


The Brexit vote has stunned us. It has shaken us. It has forced upon us a set of dreadful questions none of us ever wished answers were required for:

  • How do you disarticulate deeply integrated economies? How do you prevent the rancor of the U.K.'s divorce from the EU wreaking more havoc, not only in Europe but in the rest of the world? The divorce metaphor is apt here as it signals the treacherous waters ahead when the feeling of betrayal and the temptation of revenge may result in a misguided punitive approach to separation. Let's not forget that almost half of U.K.'s referendum voters chose "remain." Let's not forget that the youth in the U.K. overwhelmingly chose the EU for their future. EU leaders therefore face the ultimate test of leadership. In negotiating exit terms they must strengthen this constituency for internationalism. The U.K. needs committed internationalists. We all need them.
  • How do you prevent rising nationalism from dialing back globalization? Is the "Great Convergence" at risk? In the past few decades, developing countries have emerged into the international trading system, and in opening their economies they have lifted millions from abject poverty. Will this future be off-limits to the next round of poor nations seeking to avail themselves of the opportunities of the international marketplace? Has globalization already peaked and are we to be the unlucky generation that lives through the tumultuous process of retrenchment? Are we to feel firsthand the dread that the generation of a century ago experienced when they all suffered from beggar-thy-neighbor policies?
  • Are we next? Are the forces of economic nationalism and nativism that drove the referendum outcome in the U.K. unstoppable elsewhere? Will they decide the outcome of the American presidential election this fall? And if so, what happens to the international economic order?

These are still imponderable questions, but I would venture two answers: Brexit is not the final indictment of globalization, and our futures are not yet destined to be ruled by the politics of grievance.

The United States need not become the next domino to succumb to the harmful influence of populism. The parallels in the anti-globalization campaign on both sides of the Atlantic are of course unnerving:

  • Anti-elitism: Fueled by the sense of economic disenfranchisement of older white voters who feel that a future of "splendid isolation" is possible.
  • Nationalism: Driven by a desire to "take back" our country.
  • Nativism: Spurred by strong anti-immigration feelings and rejection of a multicultural polity.

But the differences are also striking, especially when it comes to the issue of trade which commanded so much attention during both the Brexit campaign and the American presidential nomination debates. In reading the "Leave" campaign's statement on trade policy, you will not find:

  • The rejection of trade deals for "killing jobs" with special blame placed on developing countries (aka China) for inflicting a mortal wound on manufacturing prowess;
  • The promise to impose punitive tariffs on major trading partners even at the risk of initiating a trade war;
  • The call for a boycott of firms that relocate part of their production overseas.

Brexit then is not an endorsement of the Trump brand of predatory protectionism.

Instead, what the Leave campaign offered on trade policy are heaps of wishful thinking and hidden truths. It sought to downplay the importance of the EU market to U.K. producers in order to justify setting its sights on other horizons. It promised to open up trade opportunities and job growth by negotiating trade deals with emerging economies such as China and India. And it confidently stated that trade links with the EU could be restored through a U.K.-EU trade deal that would mirror what countries like Norway have done. But this optimistic prognosis left out a lot. For starters, a future U.K.-EU free trade agreement will most likely yield pared-down benefits. Norway gained access to the single market by agreeing to free movement of labor that Brexiters vehemently reject. Moreover, the U.K. cannot chart its own course on trade policy until its separation from the EU is complete. Restructuring U.K.'s trading relations will take years and the results are hard to predict. But the costs of uncertainty are immediate as companies and investors will recalibrate their strategies without waiting for a protracted process of trade negotiations.

Brexiters struck a xenophobic note, but did not produce an overtly protectionist manifesto. Yet, their success at the ballot did deliver a major blow to economic internationalism. Trumpism is both xenophobic and protectionist, and were it to prevail in the November election, its negative impact on globalization will be vastly more profound. But the die has not been cast, and there are sound reasons to doubt a Trump victory.

If we are to prevail in overcoming the politics of grievance, we must first reckon that populism did not materialize from thin air. It is based on a fact: As globalization intensified during the past two decades, the middle classes in the industrialized world experienced stagnant incomes. The inward push is enabled by the manipulation of this fact: Offering trade as an easy scapegoat for a vastly more complex set of factors producing economic disparities (such as technological change and political decisions on taxation, education, and safety nets). And this populism is based on a false promise—that "taking control," i.e., taking our countries out of the existing trading regime will make those left behind better off. Its one unmistakable deliverable will be to make all of us worse off.

Authors

Image Source: © Issei Kato / Reuters
      
 
 




bali

When globalization goes digital


American voters are angry. But while the ill effects of globalization top their list of grievances, nobody is well served when complex economic issues are reduced to bumper-sticker slogans – as they have been thus far in the presidential campaign.

It is unfair to dismiss concerns about globalization as unfounded. America deserves to have an honest debate about its effects. In order to yield constructive solutions, however, all sides will need to concede some inconvenient truths – and to recognize that globalization is not the same phenomenon it was 20 years ago.

Protectionists fail to see how the United States’ eroding industrial base is compatible with the principle that globalization boosts growth. But the evidence supporting that principle is too substantial to ignore.

Recent research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) echoes the findings of other academics: global flows of goods, foreign direct investment, and data have increased global GDP by roughly 10% compared to what it would have been had those flows never occurred. The extra value provided by globalization amounted to $7.8 trillion in 2014 alone.

And yet, the shuttered factories dotting America’s Midwestern “Rust Belt” are real. Even as globalization generates aggregate growth, it produces winners and losers. Exposing local industries to international competition spurs efficiency and innovation, but the resulting creative destruction exacts a substantial toll on families and communities.

Economists and policymakers alike are guilty of glossing over these distributional consequences. Countries that engage in free trade will find new channels for growth in the long run, the thinking goes, and workers who lose their jobs in one industry will find employment in another.

In the real world, however, this process is messy and protracted. Workers in a shrinking industry may need entirely new skills to find jobs in other sectors, and they may have to pack up their families and pull up deep roots to pursue these opportunities. It has taken a popular backlash against free trade for policymakers and the media to acknowledge the extent of this disruption.

That backlash should not have come as a surprise. Traditional labor-market policies and training systems have not been equal to the task of dealing with the large-scale changes caused by the twin forces of globalization and automation. The US needs concrete proposals for supporting workers caught up in structural transitions – and a willingness to consider fresh approaches, such as wage insurance.

Contrary to campaign rhetoric, simple protectionism would harm consumers. A recent study by the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers found that middle-class Americans gain more than a quarter of their purchasing power from trade. In any event, imposing tariffs on foreign goods will not bring back lost manufacturing jobs.

It is time to change the parameters of the debate and recognize that globalization has become an entirely different animal: The global goods trade has flattened for a variety of reasons, including plummeting commodity prices, sluggishness in many major economies, and a trend toward producing goods closer to the point of consumption. Cross-border flows of data, by contrast, have grown by a factor of 45 during the past decade, and now generate a greater economic impact than flows of traditional manufactured goods.

Digitization is changing everything: the nature of the goods changing hands, the universe of potential suppliers and customers, the method of delivery, and the capital and scale required to operate globally. It also means that globalization is no longer exclusively the domain of Fortune 500 firms.

Companies interacting with their foreign operations, suppliers, and customers account for a large and growing share of global Internet traffic. Already half of the world’s traded services are digitized, and 12% of the global goods trade is conducted via international e-commerce. E-commerce marketplaces such as Alibaba, Amazon, and eBay are turning millions of small enterprises into exporters. This remains an enormous untapped opportunity for the US, where fewer than 1% of companies export– a far lower share than in any other advanced economy.

Despite all the anti-trade rhetoric, it is crucial that Americans bear in mind that most of the world’s customers are overseas. Fast-growing emerging economies will be the biggest sources of consumption growth in the years ahead.

This would be the worst possible moment to erect barriers. The new digital landscape is still taking shape, and countries have an opportunity to redefine their comparative advantages. The US may have lost out as the world chased low labor costs; but it operates from a position of strength in a world defined by digital globalization.

There is real value in the seamless movement of innovation, information, goods, services, and – yes – people. As the US struggles to jump-start its economy, it cannot afford to seal itself off from an important source of growth.

US policymakers must take a nuanced, clear-eyed view of globalization, one that addresses its downsides more effectively, not only when it comes to lost jobs at home, but also when it comes to its trading partners’ labor and environmental standards. Above all, the US needs to stop retrying the past – and start focusing on how it can compete in the next era of globalization.

Editor's note: this piece first appeared on Project-Syndicate.org.

Publication: Project Syndicate
      
 
 




bali

When globalization goes digital


American voters are angry. But while the ill effects of globalization top their list of grievances, nobody is well served when complex economic issues are reduced to bumper-sticker slogans – as they have been thus far in the presidential campaign.

It is unfair to dismiss concerns about globalization as unfounded. America deserves to have an honest debate about its effects. In order to yield constructive solutions, however, all sides will need to concede some inconvenient truths – and to recognize that globalization is not the same phenomenon it was 20 years ago.

Protectionists fail to see how the United States’ eroding industrial base is compatible with the principle that globalization boosts growth. But the evidence supporting that principle is too substantial to ignore.

Recent research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) echoes the findings of other academics: global flows of goods, foreign direct investment, and data have increased global GDP by roughly 10% compared to what it would have been had those flows never occurred. The extra value provided by globalization amounted to $7.8 trillion in 2014 alone.

And yet, the shuttered factories dotting America’s Midwestern “Rust Belt” are real. Even as globalization generates aggregate growth, it produces winners and losers. Exposing local industries to international competition spurs efficiency and innovation, but the resulting creative destruction exacts a substantial toll on families and communities.

Economists and policymakers alike are guilty of glossing over these distributional consequences. Countries that engage in free trade will find new channels for growth in the long run, the thinking goes, and workers who lose their jobs in one industry will find employment in another.

In the real world, however, this process is messy and protracted. Workers in a shrinking industry may need entirely new skills to find jobs in other sectors, and they may have to pack up their families and pull up deep roots to pursue these opportunities. It has taken a popular backlash against free trade for policymakers and the media to acknowledge the extent of this disruption.

That backlash should not have come as a surprise. Traditional labor-market policies and training systems have not been equal to the task of dealing with the large-scale changes caused by the twin forces of globalization and automation. The US needs concrete proposals for supporting workers caught up in structural transitions – and a willingness to consider fresh approaches, such as wage insurance.

Contrary to campaign rhetoric, simple protectionism would harm consumers. A recent study by the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers found that middle-class Americans gain more than a quarter of their purchasing power from trade. In any event, imposing tariffs on foreign goods will not bring back lost manufacturing jobs.

It is time to change the parameters of the debate and recognize that globalization has become an entirely different animal: The global goods trade has flattened for a variety of reasons, including plummeting commodity prices, sluggishness in many major economies, and a trend toward producing goods closer to the point of consumption. Cross-border flows of data, by contrast, have grown by a factor of 45 during the past decade, and now generate a greater economic impact than flows of traditional manufactured goods.

Digitization is changing everything: the nature of the goods changing hands, the universe of potential suppliers and customers, the method of delivery, and the capital and scale required to operate globally. It also means that globalization is no longer exclusively the domain of Fortune 500 firms.

Companies interacting with their foreign operations, suppliers, and customers account for a large and growing share of global Internet traffic. Already half of the world’s traded services are digitized, and 12% of the global goods trade is conducted via international e-commerce. E-commerce marketplaces such as Alibaba, Amazon, and eBay are turning millions of small enterprises into exporters. This remains an enormous untapped opportunity for the US, where fewer than 1% of companies export– a far lower share than in any other advanced economy.

Despite all the anti-trade rhetoric, it is crucial that Americans bear in mind that most of the world’s customers are overseas. Fast-growing emerging economies will be the biggest sources of consumption growth in the years ahead.

This would be the worst possible moment to erect barriers. The new digital landscape is still taking shape, and countries have an opportunity to redefine their comparative advantages. The US may have lost out as the world chased low labor costs; but it operates from a position of strength in a world defined by digital globalization.

There is real value in the seamless movement of innovation, information, goods, services, and – yes – people. As the US struggles to jump-start its economy, it cannot afford to seal itself off from an important source of growth.

US policymakers must take a nuanced, clear-eyed view of globalization, one that addresses its downsides more effectively, not only when it comes to lost jobs at home, but also when it comes to its trading partners’ labor and environmental standards. Above all, the US needs to stop retrying the past – and start focusing on how it can compete in the next era of globalization.

Editor's note: this piece first appeared on Project-Syndicate.org.

Publication: Project Syndicate
      
 
 




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