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History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession

“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana.

Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped?  Or U-shaped?  If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession.

As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939.  As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period.




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History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession

“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana.

Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped?  Or U-shaped?  If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession.

As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939.  As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period.




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How to Avoid a Pandemic Patriot Act

The last time the United States faced a big, hard-to-track threat, we ended up with the Patriot Act and a mass-surveillance program that still rankles. This time, how do we use technology to combat the novel coronavirus without creating elements of a police state?




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How to Avoid a Pandemic Patriot Act

The last time the United States faced a big, hard-to-track threat, we ended up with the Patriot Act and a mass-surveillance program that still rankles. This time, how do we use technology to combat the novel coronavirus without creating elements of a police state?




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How to Avoid a Pandemic Patriot Act

The last time the United States faced a big, hard-to-track threat, we ended up with the Patriot Act and a mass-surveillance program that still rankles. This time, how do we use technology to combat the novel coronavirus without creating elements of a police state?




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How to Avoid a Pandemic Patriot Act

The last time the United States faced a big, hard-to-track threat, we ended up with the Patriot Act and a mass-surveillance program that still rankles. This time, how do we use technology to combat the novel coronavirus without creating elements of a police state?




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How to Avoid a Pandemic Patriot Act

The last time the United States faced a big, hard-to-track threat, we ended up with the Patriot Act and a mass-surveillance program that still rankles. This time, how do we use technology to combat the novel coronavirus without creating elements of a police state?




oid

History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession

“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana.

Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped?  Or U-shaped?  If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession.

As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939.  As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period.




oid

History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession

“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana.

Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped?  Or U-shaped?  If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession.

As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939.  As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period.




oid

History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession

“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana.

Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped?  Or U-shaped?  If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession.

As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939.  As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period.




oid

How to Avoid a Pandemic Patriot Act

The last time the United States faced a big, hard-to-track threat, we ended up with the Patriot Act and a mass-surveillance program that still rankles. This time, how do we use technology to combat the novel coronavirus without creating elements of a police state?




oid

How to Avoid a Pandemic Patriot Act

The last time the United States faced a big, hard-to-track threat, we ended up with the Patriot Act and a mass-surveillance program that still rankles. This time, how do we use technology to combat the novel coronavirus without creating elements of a police state?




oid

History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession

“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana.

Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped?  Or U-shaped?  If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession.

As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939.  As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period.




oid

History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession

“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana.

Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped?  Or U-shaped?  If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession.

As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939.  As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period.




oid

History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession

“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana.

Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped?  Or U-shaped?  If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession.

As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939.  As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period.




oid

History Warns Us to Avoid a W-shaped Recession

“Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  And the rest of us are condemned to repeat George Santayana.

Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped?  Or U-shaped?  If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession.

As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939.  As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period.




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How to Avoid a W-shaped Global Coronavirus Recession

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” George Santayana famously quipped in 1905. It is a phrase that has been repeated for over a century, but rarely heeded. As Covid-19 decimates the global economy, our understanding of history could be the difference between a V- or U-shaped recession and a W-shaped one, in which incipient recovery is followed by successive relapses.

As recently as March, V-shaped recoveries in individual economies seemed plausible. Once infections and deaths had peaked and begun to decline, the logic went, people would eagerly return to work. The economic activity might even get an extra boost, as consumers released pent-up demand.




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The urgent question on Earth Day remains how to avoid the consequences of climate change

       




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Avoiding the COVID-19 slump: Making up for lost school time

In 1996, Harris Cooper of Duke University and his colleagues first reported on the effects of what came to be known as summer slide, or summer slump. Over the summer months, when children are not in school, those from under-resourced communities tend to lose roughly 30 percent of the gains they made in math during…

       




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Avoiding the COVID-19 slump: Making up for lost school time

In 1996, Harris Cooper of Duke University and his colleagues first reported on the effects of what came to be known as summer slide, or summer slump. Over the summer months, when children are not in school, those from under-resourced communities tend to lose roughly 30 percent of the gains they made in math during…

       




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5 traps that will kill online learning (and strategies to avoid them)

For perhaps the first time in recent memory, parents and teachers may be actively encouraging their children to spend more time on their electronic devices. Online learning has moved to the front stage as 90 percent of high-income countries are using it as the primary means of educational continuity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. If March will forever…

       




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How to avoid a new Argentina default?

Argentina is on the brink of a new, disorderly default. The government’s original debt plan, an aggressive offer to solve once and for all Argentina´s long-standing external problems, is likely to be turned down by external creditors. The coronavirus crisis opens a door to a viable plan B: a “standstill” agreement—more specifically, a reprofiling exchange—to…

       




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What the US and Canada can learn from other countries to combat the opioid crisis

In a 2018 article for Foreign Affairs, we detailed what set off the North American opioid crisis and what other nations can learn from mistakes the U.S. and Canada made. Here, we describe the opioid situation in other countries and then reflect on what U.S. and Canadian officials could learn from them. Key lessons include…

       




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How to avoid a new Argentina default?

Argentina is on the brink of a new, disorderly default. The government’s original debt plan, an aggressive offer to solve once and for all Argentina´s long-standing external problems, is likely to be turned down by external creditors. The coronavirus crisis opens a door to a viable plan B: a “standstill” agreement—more specifically, a reprofiling exchange—to…

       




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The opioid crisis and community-level spillovers onto children’s education

Introduction Recent high-profile litigation and settlements among states and local governments with drug companies have highlighted the costs of the opioid epidemic on communities. The dollar amounts discussed in some of these cases have been huge. For example, Purdue Pharma and Mallinckrodt agreed to a national settlements of about $10 billion and $1.6 billion, respectively,…

       




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The troubling impact of America’s opioid epidemic on student learning

Today, the Brown Center on Education Policy is releasing a new report on one of the unexplored effects of the opioid crisis: the link between the opioid epidemic and the educational outcomes of children in hard-hit areas. Written by Rajeev Darolia and John Tyler, the report suggests a need to be aware of the potentially…

       




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Avoiding the COVID-19 slump: Making up for lost school time

In 1996, Harris Cooper of Duke University and his colleagues first reported on the effects of what came to be known as summer slide, or summer slump. Over the summer months, when children are not in school, those from under-resourced communities tend to lose roughly 30 percent of the gains they made in math during…

       




oid

5 traps that will kill online learning (and strategies to avoid them)

For perhaps the first time in recent memory, parents and teachers may be actively encouraging their children to spend more time on their electronic devices. Online learning has moved to the front stage as 90 percent of high-income countries are using it as the primary means of educational continuity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. If March will forever…

       




oid

5 traps that will kill online learning (and strategies to avoid them)

For perhaps the first time in recent memory, parents and teachers may be actively encouraging their children to spend more time on their electronic devices. Online learning has moved to the front stage as 90 percent of high-income countries are using it as the primary means of educational continuity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. If March will forever…

       




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Marijuana Policy and Presidential Leadership: How to Avoid a Federal-State Train Wreck

Stuart Taylor, Jr. examines how the federal government and the eighteen states (plus the District of Columbia) that have partially legalized medical or recreational marijuana or both since 1996 can be true to their respective laws, and can agree on how to enforce them wisely while avoiding federal-state clashes that would increase confusion and harm…

       




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Policy Leadership and the Blame Trap: Seven Strategies for Avoiding Policy Stalemate

Editor’s Note: This paper is part of the Governance Studies Management and Leadership Initiative. Negative messages about political opponents increasingly dominate not just election campaigns in the United States, but the policymaking process as well.  And politics dominated by negative messaging (also known as blame-generating) tends to result in policy stalemate. Negative messaging is attractive…

       




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NASA considers public values in its Asteroid Initiative


NASA’s Asteroid Initiative encompasses efforts for the human exploration of asteroids—as well as the Asteroid Grand Challenge—to enhance asteroid detection capabilities and mitigate their threat to Earth. The human space flight portion of the initiative primarily includes the Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM), which is a proposal to put an asteroid in orbit of the moon and send astronauts to it. The program originally contemplated two alternatives for closer study: capturing a small 10m diameter asteroid versus simply recovering a boulder from a much larger asteroid. Late in March, NASA offered an update of its plans. It has decided to retrieve a boulder from an asteroid near Earth’s orbit—candidates are the asteroids 2008 EV5, Bennu, and Itokawa—and will place the boulder on the moon’s orbit to further study it.

This mission will help NASA develop a host of technical capabilities. For instance, Solar Electric Propulsion uses solar electric power to charge atoms for spacecraft propulsion—in the absence of gravity, even a modicum of force can alter the trajectory of a body in outer space. Another related capability under development is the gravity tractor, which is based on the notion that even the modest mass of a spacecraft can exert sufficient gravitational force over an asteroid to ever so slightly change its orbit. The ARM spacecraft mass could be further increased by its ability to capture a boulder from the asteroid that is steering clear of the Earth, enabling a test of how humans might prevent asteroid threats in the future. Thus, NASA will have a second test of how to deflect near-Earth objects on a hazardous trajectory. The first test, implemented as part of the Deep Impact Mission, is a kinetic impactor; that is, crashing a spacecraft on an approaching object to change its trajectory.

The Asteroid Initiative is a partner of the agency’s Near Earth Object Observation (NEOO) program. The goal of this program is to discover and monitor space objects traveling on a trajectory that could pose the risk of hitting Earth with catastrophic effects. The program also seeks to develop mitigation strategies. The capabilities developed by ARM could also support other programs of NASA, such as the manned exploration of Mars.

NEOO has recently enjoyed an uptick of public support. It used to be funded at about $4 million in the 1990s and in 2010 was allocated a paltry $6 million. But then, a redirection of priorities—linked to the transition from the Bush to the Obama administrations—increased funding for NEOO to about $20 million in 2012 and $40 million in 2014—and NASA is seeking $50 million for 2015. It is clear that NASA officials made a compelling case for the importance of NEOO; in fact, what they are asking seems quite a modest amount if indeed asteroids pose an existential risk to life on earth. At the same time, the instrumental importance of the program and the public funds devoted to it beg the question as to whether taxpayers should have a say in the decisions NASA is making regarding how to proceed with the program.

NASA has done something remarkable to help answer this question.

Last November, NASA partnered with the ECAST network (Expert and Citizen Assessment of Science and Technology) to host a citizen forum assessing the Asteroid Initiative. ECAST is a consortium of science policy and advocacy organizations which specializes in citizen deliberations on science policy. The forum consisted of a dialogue with 100 citizens in Phoenix and Boston who learned more about the asteroid initiative and then commented on various aspects of the project.

The participants, who were selected to approximate the demographics of the U.S. population, were asked to assess mitigation strategies to protect against asteroids. They were introduced to four strategies: civil defense, gravity tractor, kinetic impactor, and nuclear blast deflection. As part of the deliberations, they were asked to consider the two aforementioned approaches to perform ARM. A consensus emerged about the boulder retrieval option primarily because citizens thought that option offered better prospects for developing planetary defense technologies.  This preference existed despite the excitement of capturing a full asteroid, which could potentially have additional economic impacts. The participants showed interest in promoting the development of mitigation capabilities at least as much as they wanted to protect traditional NASA goals such as the advancement of science and space flight technology. This is not surprising given that concerns about doomsday should reasonably take precedence over traditional research and exploration concerns.

NASA could have decided to set ARM along the path of boulder retrieval exclusively on technical merits, but having conducted a citizen forum, the agency is now able to claim that this decision is also socially robust, which is to say, is responsive to public values of consensus. In this manner, NASA has shown a promising method by which research mission federal agencies can increase their public accountability.

In the same spirit of responsible research and innovation, a recent Brookings paper I authored with David Guston—who is a co-founder of ECAST—proposes a number of other innovative ways in which the innovation enterprise can be made more responsive to public values and social expectations.

Kudos to NASA for being at the forefront of innovation in space exploration and public accountability.

Image Source: © Handout . / Reuters
     
 
 




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Climate change brings disasters on steroids

Editor’s Note: Nonresident Senior Fellow Jane McAdam says that climate change-related displacement is happening now and band aid solutions to natural disasters are simply not enough. The time is now to be proactive, because the cost of inaction will be much higher. This article was originally published in The Sydney Morning Herald and on smh.com.au.…

      
 
 




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4 Ways to Avoid the Hidden Evils of Valentine’s Day

From child labor to blood diamonds, showing your love can have some seriously unexpected pitfalls.




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Finally! U.N. to create asteroid defense group to prevent death from above

What's the point of protecting the environment if bad luck brings a big space rock on a trajectory that crosses Earth's path?




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5 sunscreen ingredients to avoid

These worrisome sunscreen chemicals provide potential risk to humans and are wreaking havoc on coral reefs.




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Want to avoid GMOs? Don’t buy “natural” foods

Consumer Reports finds that most products advertised as “natural” contain genetically modified ingredients.




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How Can Vegetarians Avoid Fish, Blood and Bonemeal Fertilizer?

When I asked whether vegans can eat carrots grown with manure, some commenters found the question despicable. But my intention was not to question anyone's commitment, nor to lessen the




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Minimalist aVOID tiny house is an ever-transforming living experience (Video)

It's a multifunctional space that hides everything behind its pared-down walls.




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A Funny Flow Chart to Help You Choose Your Sweetener (Or Avoid One Altogether)

If you like a little sugar in your morning (and late morning, and afternoon) coffee, but don't like the calories, there's a good chance you use one of the many artificial sweeteners on the market. But there's plenty of evidence




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How to avoid the bite of a kissing bug

Kissing bugs can carry the parasite that causes Chagas disease, and they are now making their way through the US.




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Happy Petrov Day! (How we narrowly avoided nuclear war on this day in 1983)

Most of us alive today owe a debt to those who avoided nuclear war in years past, and sadly, there were many occasions when that was necessary.




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Mussels test positive for opioids and chemo drugs

Over the course of three months, previously clean mussels picked up a slew of contaminants from the waters of Puget Sound.




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Avoid PFCs with eco-friendly outdoor gear and DIY techniques

While these chemicals continue to be the norm in the camping and mountaineering industries, there are some good alternatives.




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Man lives in tiny 8 ft. box to avoid paying San Francisco's high rents

One man gets creative about the affordable housing shortage in San Francisco, and pays only $400 a month to live in this sleeping pod he built in a friend's apartment.




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Why wasps attack and how to avoid them

The mob mentality of social wasps can create a furious swarm when even just a single insect is aggravated, here’s the reason and why it matters.




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Clean Ride Mapper helps cyclists avoid polluted air, find quietest route to destination

It's up to you to decide if you want to take the shortest route, the cleanest one, or the quietest one.




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Worried about the planet? Avoid that extra kid

Forget light bulbs and cloth bags. The actions that will mitigate climate change most effectively are the ones nobody's talking about.




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Why you should avoid "fast furniture"

From the chemicals to the lifespan to the landfill, it suffers many of the same problems as fast fashion.




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'Life Without Plastic: The Practical Step-by-Step Guide to Avoiding Plastic to Keep Your Family and the Planet Healthy' (book review)

A modern life without plastic may seem an impossibility, but this Canadian duo shows it's achievable.