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• Facebook has been in negotiations for months to lease over 700,000 square feet at the Farley Building on Manhattan's West Side. 
• Office leasing activity in the city has plummeted, giving the blockbuster deal even more importance as a sign of life in a suddenly lethargic market.
• The coronavirus has spurred a deep downturn in the economy that is already being felt in the city's commercial real-estate market, prompting a big slowdown in leasing activity.  
• The rapid expansion of tech in recent years has propelled the city's office market. Real estate execs say that Facebook's big deal is a key barometer. 
• The crisis also raises questions whether tenants will ever occupy office space the same way as companies and their workforces around the world grow familiar with remote work. 
• Click here for more BI Prime stories.

Leasing activity in New York City's multi-billion-dollar commercial office market has dropped precipitously as the coronavirus has battered the market and raised questions of when — and even if — tenants can return to the workplace in a post-Covid world.

Amid the growing concerns the crisis will smother what had been robust demand for office space, eyes in the city's real estate industry have turned to a pending blockbuster deal on the West Side that could offer a signal of confidence to the market.

Facebook is in talks to take over 700,000 square feet of space in the Farley Building, a block-long property across Eighth Avenue from Penn Station.

"If that deal happens, then this market will be just fine," said Peter Riguardi, the New York area chairman and president of JLL. "If the deal happens but it's renegotiated, it will be fine, but it will be a trend that every tenant can follow. And if it doesn't happen, I would be very concerned about the market."

Read More: Inside the drama over control of the iconic Chrysler Building: A real-estate tycoon and a prestigious college are renegotiating a critical $150 million deal.

Facebook's NYC real-estate footprint

Last year, Facebook signed on for 1.5 million square feet in the Hudson Yards mega-development just west of the Farley Building, taking space in three new office towers at the project.

For months the $600 billion Silicon Valley-based social media giant has been in negotiations for even more space at the nearby Farley Building, whose interior landlord Vornado Realty Trust is redeveloping to include newly built office and retail space.

Vornado had originally expected to complete the deal with Facebook in early March, according to a source familiar with the negotiations. The talks have continued on as the virus pandemic has brought commerce and social life to a virtual halt. The source expected the lease, which will commit Facebook to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in rent for the space over the life of the lease, to soon be completed.

In a conference call with investors and analysts on Tuesday to discuss Vornado's first-quarter earnings, the company's CEO Steve Roth also hinted that the Facebook deal was still on track.

"There's another large tenant that has been rumored to be that we've been in dialogue with," Roth said, not directly naming the company. "That conversation is going forward aggressively and hopefully maybe even almost complete."

Rapid growth in Big Tech leasing before coronavirus

Recent real-estate decisions by Facebook and other tech companies have worried real-estate executives that they may reconsider their footprint after years of dramatic growth. Facebook on Thursday revealed that the bulk of its over 40,000-person workforce will be asked to work remotely for the remainder of the year, a timeline that appears to show the company is using caution in returning to its footprint.

Read More: Neiman Marcus just filed for bankruptcy, and it could mark a major blow to NYC's glitzy Hudson Yards — one of the most expensive mega-malls in US history. Here's why.

Real-estate executives have expressed concern that tenants may become accustomed to offloading a portion or even the bulk of their workforce to a remote-working model, leading them to drastically reduce their office commitments.

At a minimum, the economic upheaval has appeared to spur a newfound sense of caution in tech companies that have grown rapidly in recent years. Alphabet called off negotiations to expand its San Francisco offices by over 2 million square feet in recent weeks, according to a report from The Information.  

Tech has been a big driver of demand for office space

In recent years the tech industry had become one of the most voracious takers of space in the city, helping to push up commercial rents and spur the construction of new office space.

In 2019, tech firms accounted for 24.5% of the 31.6 million square feet of leasing activity in Manhattan, eclipsing the financial industry as the city's biggest space-taking sector for the first time, according to data from the real estate services and brokerage firm CBRE.

In 2010 tech leasing comprised just 4% of the 24.2 million square feet that was leased in the Manhattan market that year, CBRE said.

"Nothing has buoyed the confidence of landlords more in recent years than tech tenants," said Sacha Zarba, a leasing executive at CBRE who specializes in working with tech firms. "It didn't matter where your building was. If it was attractive to tech, you would stand a good chance to lease your space. If that industry retrenches a bit, it removes a big driver of demand."

The Manhattan office market has slowed rapidly in recent weeks as the virus crisis has battered the economy and shut down daily life.

About 844,000 square feet of space was leased in Manhattan in April, according to CBRE, 64% lower than the five-year monthly average. In the first four months of the year, nearly seven million square feet was leased, a decline of 30% for the same period a year ago. 

So far, however, there are signs that tech continues to snap up space.

After scuttling plans to develop a 25,000 person second headquarters space in Long Island City last year, Amazon purchased 424 Fifth Avenue, a former flagship department store for Lord & Taylor, for nearly $1 billion in March. That property totals about 660,000 square feet. Late last year, before the pandemic hit U.S. shores but had flared in China, Amazon also leased 335,000 square feet at 410 Tenth Avenue.

The commitments of major tech companies absorb millions of square feet in the city, but they also help fuel a larger ecosystem of tenants that occupies an even larger footprint. That means that a decrease in the real estate of just a few big tech players could be multiplied across the market as smaller players in the sector follow suit.

"Those big tech firms do a fantastic job of training and credentialing tech talent on the city," said Matt Harrigan, a co-founder of Company, a space incubator at 335 Madison Avenue that provides offices and community for both startups and more established tech firms. "Google and Facebook spin off talent who start or join other tech ventures that take space. That's what's so important about having the large presence of those companies here."

Have a tip? Contact Daniel Geiger at dgeiger@businessinsider.com or via encrypted messaging app Signal at +1 (646) 352-2884, or Twitter DM at @dangeiger79. You can also contact Business Insider securely via SecureDrop.

SEE ALSO: What to expect when you're back in the office: 7 real-estate experts break down what the transition will look like, and why the workplace may never be the same

SEE ALSO: Major tenants are delaying big leases in NYC as they re-think their office space needs for the post-coronavirus world

SEE ALSO: As WeWork and flex-space rivals stumble, 18 million square feet of space in NYC is at risk. Here's what that means for the real-estate market.

SEE ALSO: BI Prime Edit in Viking Neiman Marcus just filed for bankruptcy, and it could mark a major blow to NYC's glitzy Hudson Yards — one of the most expensive mega-malls in US history. Here's why.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: We tested a machine that brews beer at the push of a button

Welcome to Wall Street Insider, where we take you behind the scenes of the finance team's biggest scoops and deep dives from the past week. 

If you aren't yet a subscriber to Wall Street Insider, you can sign up here.

For certain corners of Wall Street, dealmaking is happening faster than ever. While M&A activity has plunged, bankers primed to help companies navigate the financial fallout, especially restructuring and debt-raising specialists, have been crushed with demand.

Alex Morrell took a look at how top bankers — known for putting in long hours curating a white-glove experience for clients — are finding they can still provide service from afar. It turns out, when you take away the time spent at airports and restaurants, and when Zoom calls can be arranged in minutes, things can move at lightning speed. 

Read the full story here: 

'Stunning efficiency': How remote dealmaking could mean a permanent lifestyle change for some bankers

Meanwhile, it's been a tale of two approaches to job cuts in recent days. On Tuesday, Airbnb CEO and cofounder Brian Chesky emailed staff about sweeping layoffs that were impacting 1,900 people, highlighting where the company will focus in the future and what exit packages employees should expect. You can read the full email here. 

Over at WeWork, things have been rolling out gradually. Meghan Morris and Dakin Campbell wrote about a leaked WeWork document that revealed a huge reorg under way for people who manage its buildings. Here's how the new structure works — and the complex process for staff to save their jobs. Alex Nicoll and Meghan also reported that Flatiron School has slashed at least 100 jobs, building on their scoop last week that WeWork started making cuts in several key departments, with IT alone losing some 200 jobs. 

Keep reading for a preview of changes in store for Bloomberg terminals, a rundown of Blackstone's giant commercial real estate business, and a look at how PIMCO stocked up with $5.5 billion for private-credit strategies since the beginning of the year.

Have a safe and healthy weekend, 

Meredith 

Inside Blackstone's massive CRE business

Blackstone is the largest commercial real-estate investor in the world, with $160 billion in investor capital. Alex Nicoll chatted with Blackstone real estate's three heads of acquisition, and its head of debt origination, to learn more about their business. 

They spoke about some of their most interesting deals, and why Blackstone's global scale and thematic investing style is a huge advantage. 

Read the full story here: 

Meet the 4 dealmakers driving Blackstone's $325 billion commercial real estate portfolio. They walked us through how they're thinking about opportunities in the downturn.

A Facebook office deal is a key test 

The coronavirus crisis has thrown into question whether tenants will ever occupy office space the same way again as companies and workforces around the world grow accustomed to remote work.

Facebook has been in negotiations for months to lease over 700,000 square feet at the Farley Building on Manhattan's West Side. The rapid expansion of tech in recent years has propelled the city's office market, and Dan Geiger spoke with real-estate execs who laid out why Facebook's deal is a key barometer. 

Read the full story here:

A blockbuster Facebook office deal is a make-or-break moment for the future of commercial real estate. 3 leasing experts lay out the stakes.

Coming soon to a terminal near you

As remote work becomes a long-term reality, a technology staple of Wall Street is in store for a makeover. Mark Flatman, global head of core terminal at Bloomberg, told Dan DeFrancesco that the financial technology giant is considering ways to revamp its ubiquitous terminal.

One particular area of focus for Flatman and his team has been screen space, as many customers aren't working with the typical four-screen display. Another area that has gotten increased attention is mobile, where usage has jumped. 

Read the full story here: 

Bloomberg is eyeing big changes to its iconic terminals to make work-from-home easier. The exec leading its strategy laid out how he's rethinking screen space and mobile features.

A new pile of cash for private credit

Industry observers expect a surge in interest in specialized credit shops that have proven to be winners in distressed situations. And Bradley Saacks revealed how PIMCO has tapped into that demand, with sources saying that the fixed-income giant has raised $5.5 billion in private-credit strategies since the beginning of the year.

PIMCO's nearly $4 billion Tactical Opportunities fund lost roughly 15% in March, but was able to avoid forced selling, sources tell Business Insider, and even added to positions in the month. That fund alone has raised $250 million — and is just one of several private-credit funds that PIMCO has raised money for.

Read the full story here: 

PIMCO has raised $5.5 billion for private-credit funds despite a hellacious March — and is telling investors it's the best opportunity in a decade

A tax break for big companies with heavy debt

But some tax experts are concerned that the tax break is too indiscriminate: In addition to helping troubled companies, they say, boosting tax deductions on interest payments is going to give a lift to companies that aren't being hurt by the pandemic, or whose problems have nothing to do with the coronavirus. 

Read the full story here:

A $13 billion tax break tucked into the coronavirus stimulus plan will save some big companies tens of millions — even if they aren't ailing. Here's how it works and who could benefit.

On the move

Dakin Campbell reported that Goldman Sachs has hired the distressed-situations and bankruptcy expert Kurt Hoffman as a managing director in a business that handles one-off loans for clients. The move comes just as industries battered by the economic shutdown are in need of emergency financing. 

Investing and hedge funds

• SoftBank's brutal treatment of WeWork founder Adam Neumann shows that it has given up any hope for Silicon Valley and it's leaving a scorched landscape in its wake
• April hedge fund performance numbers are in — here's how big names like Third Point and Renaissance turned things around after a rough March
• WeWork pain is still hitting mom and pops' mutual funds as managers like Fidelity slash valuations further
• 'Quantamental' investing is suddenly a buzzword in the hedge fund world, and we talked to the CEO of a fintech that just nabbed $8 million to help power the approach
• Steve Cohen's former right-hand man is launching his own fund. Here's everything we know about Tom Conheeney's EmeraldRidge Advisors.
• A data 'super contango' makes oil the new data, not the other way around. Here's why.

Careers

• Deloitte is delaying many of its full-time hires and switched summer internships to a 2-week online intro course. Here's everything we know.
• Jobs for thousands of young consultants are being upended. From delaying start dates to cutting internships, here's what 8 top firms are doing.
• Investment manager TIAA is offering 75% of its US employees buyouts and some could get their full salaries for nearly 2 years

Real estate 

• The CEO of real estate heavy-hitter Eastdil explains the types of deals that are must-do right now — and warns that a 'de-retailing' trend is set to accelerate
• Inside the drama over control of the iconic Chrysler Building: A real-estate tycoon and a prestigious college are renegotiating a critical $150 million deal

Fintech and e-commerce

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: How waste is dealt with on the world's largest cruise ship

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On May 16, 2010, at 10:02 AM, "Xx" wrote:

You mentioned you gave a talk at Rutgers about future proofing your passion. Is this available as a podcast? I'd love to listen!

This poor kid emailed me to ask a really simple question. And I went and saddled him with the world's most circuitously long-winded answer. Surprise, surprise.

Hey, Xx,

Thanks for the note, man. No I'm sorry its not up as audio AFAIK.

FWIW, it's a talk I'm asked to do more often lately so I wouldn't be surprised if it turns up sooner or later.

Since you were kind enough to ask, the talk—which comes out super different each time I do it— consists of a discursive mishmash of advice I wish I'd had the ears to hear in the year or five after graduating from college: primarily, that we never end up anywhere near where we'd expected, and that most of us would have been a lot happier a lot faster if we'd realized that we were often obsessing over the wrong things—starting with how much the world should care about our major. ("Liberal Arts," with a concentration in [ugh] "Cultural Studies," thanks.)

The talk started as a way to encourage students to learn enough about what they care about that any temporary derails and side roads wouldn't scare their horses too badly. But, today, I see it as something a lot bigger that's demonstrably useful to anyone who hopes to survive, evolve, and thrive in this insane world.

A handful of bits I'm (obviously) still synthesizing into something notionally cohesive:

My Kingdom for Some Context!

For myself, I wish I'd known the value of developing early expertise in interesting new skills around emerging technologies (rather than just iteratively pseudo-honing the 202-level skills I thought I "understood"). Alongside that, I wish I'd learned to embrace the non-douchier aspects of building awesome human relationships (as against "networking" in the service of landing some straight job that, as with most hungry young people, locked me into a carpeted prison of monkey work at the worst time possible).

Also how I wish I'd paid more attention to events, contexts, relationships, and change that were happening outside my immediate world —rather than becoming, say, the undisputed master of fretting about status, salary, and whether I was "a success" who had "arrived".

Hint: I was not a "success," and I had not, by any stretch, "arrived."

To my mind, "success" in the real world is much more the equivalent of achieving a new personal best; it's not about whether you won the "Springtime in Springfield SunnyD®/Q105™ 5k FunRun for Entitilitus," and got a little ribbon with a gold crest on it.

Truly, pretty much anyone who feels they've "arrived" anyplace is about to learn a) how much more they could be doing outside the narrowness of an often superficial ambition and b) the surprising number of things they had to give away through the opportunity costs and trade-offs that lead up to every theoretical milestone. It's a real goddamned thistle, and it's more than a little depressing.

Do You Still Really Want to be a Fireman?

[N.B.: I really hope you're taking bathroom breaks here, Xx]

Related, I think this is about how being an adult is not only unbelievably complicated in ways that you can't begin to imagine—that it's frequently defined by impossible decisions and non-stop layers of "hypocrisy"—but that there's an invisible but entirely real risk to doggedly chasing the theoretically laudable notion of "following your dream." Especially if it's a dream you first had while sleeping on Star Wars sheets in a racecar bed.

Not because it's a bad idea to want things or to have ambitions. Quite the opposite. More because, for a lot of us, the "dreams" of youth turn out to be half-finished blueprints for wax wings. And not particularly flattering ones at that.

By starting adult life with an autistically explicit "goal" that's never been tested against any kind of real-world experience or reality-in-context, we can paradoxically miss a thousand more useful, lucrative, or organic opportunities that just…what?…pop up. Often these are one-time chances to do amazing and even unique things—opportunities that many of us continue to reject out of hand because it's "not what we do."

It took me a full decade to learn to embrace the unfamiliar gifts that kismet loves to deliver on our busiest and most stressful days, and which gifts might (maybe/maybe not) even end up bringing the real-life, non-racecar-bed, now me a big step closer to something that's 1000 times more interesting than a hollow, ten-year-old caricature of "what I wanna be when I grow up."

Finding Your "Old Butcher"

Also related, it strikes me that the indisputable wealth of information and options that are provided by the web often comes with a harrowing hidden tradeoff. While we can certainly learn a lot on our own and become (what feels like) an instant expert on any topic in an afternoon, we usually do so in the absence of a mentor and outside the context of applying expertise to solve actual problems. In my opinion, a cadet should have to survive more than a few Kobayashi Maru scenarios before he gets to declare himself, "Captain."

Call it a guru, a wizard, an old butcher, or what have you, the mad echo chamber of a young mind often benefits from the dampening influence of an experienced grownup who can help you understand things that raw data, wikipedia entries, and lists of tips and tricks can't and wont ever do.

We benefit from a hand on the back and a gentle voice, reminding us:

• "Try not to obsess over implementation until you really understand the problem," or
• "Worry more about relationships than org charts or follower counts," or
• "Don't quit looking after you've found that first data point," or—my favorite—
• "Spend less time fantasizing about 'success' and way more time making really cool mistakes."

Conversely, though, I think this means that everything we think we know, as well as all the fancy advice that gets thrown around—absolutely including the material you're reading now—is the product of what one person knows and what another person has the ears to hear. For us. For now. For who really knows what. But it is a transaction that takes place in a very specific time and within the bounds of a set of "known" "facts." So, fair warning, doing your own due diligence never hurts.

What's Almost Not Impossible?

[N.B.: I swear to God this ends at some point, Xx]

One big pattern for "future-proofing" your passion? Keep your eyes open and your heart even "opener." And, be more than simply tolerant of the notion of change—sure, take it as read that nothing is ever fixed in place for more than a little while.

But, to the extent that your sanity can bear it, always keep an eye on the corners, the edges, and especially learn to watch for those infinitesimally tiny figures starting to shuffle around near the horizon. Because a lot of the things that seem ridiculously small and inconsequential right now will eventually cast a shadow that people will be chasing for decades. It's just that we're never sure which tiny figure that will turn out to be.

So, yeah. It really is true that no one but you cares about your major. But, trust me: everybody is interested in the person who repeatedly notices the things that are about to stop being impossible.

Be the curious one who soaks in all that "irrelevant" stuff. And, even as you stay heads-down on the "now" projects that keep the lights on, remember that the guy who invented those lights made hundreds of "failed" lightbulbs before fundamentally upending the way we think about time, family, industry, and the role of technology in how we live and work. But, yes, first he "failed" a lot a lot at something which more than a few of his contemporaries thought was pointless in the first place.

Ask: What's out there right now that's about to stop being impossible? Where will it happen first? Who will (most loudly and erroneously) declare it's total bullshit? Who will mostly get it right—but possibly too early? Who will figure out what it means to our grandkids? Who will figure out how to put it in everyone's front pocket for a quarter?

Y'know who? I'll tell you who: practically anybody BUT that guy in the racecar bed who wants to talk about his major.

Important: Merlin's Advice is Only Future-Proof to 10 Meters

A few years back, most watch manufacturers decided to come clean and stop categorically declaring that their timepieces were "waterproof." Instead, today, the more credible vendors admit their product is merely "water-resistant"—and, even then, they'll only guarantee the underwater functionality at so many meters, and for so long, and under thus and such conditions.

Truthfully, the same applies here. Nothing can actually "future-proof" anything. Anyone who claims to know the future is either a madman, a charlatan, or, often as not, both.

Thing is, regardless of the passions (or goals or values or priorities or whatever) that we hope to protect or defend, we'd all do well to remember that it is still ultimately OUR passion that's at stake.

That means we're the only one responsible for seeing that its functional components survive and adapt in a world in which each one of us has just north of zero control.

If we embrace the fact that no one can or should ever care about the health of our passions as much as we do, the practical decisions that help ensure Our Good Thing stays alive can become as "simple" as a handful of proven patterns—work hard, stay awake, fail well, hang with smart people, shed bullshit, say "maybe," focus on action, and always always commit yourself to a bracing daily mixture of all the courage, honesty, and information you need to do something awesome—discover whatever it'll take to keep your nose on the side of the ocean where the fresh air lives. This is huge.

Anything else? Yeah. Drink lots of water, play with your kid every chance you get, and quit Facebook today. No, really, do it.

Thanks again for the note, Xx, and sorry for the novella. I'll ping you if the audio ever turns up. Til then, forget your major, and break a leg!

yr internet pal,
/m

Research Event

Event participants

Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics, University of Sussex; Director, Interanalysis; Fellow, UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex
Julia Magntorn Garrett, Research Officer, UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex
Prof Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex; Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Department, Chatham House
Nicolo Tamberi, Research Officer in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex
L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics, Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex

Members Event

Event participants

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Secretary-General, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
Chair: Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House 

Invitation Only Research Event

Event participants

Douglas E Lute, Ambassador, Permanent Representative for the United States to NATO
Sir Adam Thomson KCMG, UK Permanent Representative to NATO
Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House