Uros Seljak writes: You may be interested in our Gaussian Process counterfactual analysis of Italy mortality data that we just posted. Our results are in a strong disagreement with the Stanford seropositive paper that appeared on Friday. Their work was all over the news, but is completely misleading and needs to be countered: they claim […]

The following came in the email: I’m a reporter for **, and am looking for comment on the stats Gov Cuomo just released. Would you be available for a 10-minute phone conversation? Please let me know. Thanks so much, and here’s the info: Here is the relevant part: In New York City, about 21 percent, […]

Raghu Parthasarathy writes: I’ve been frustrated by Covid-19 pandemic models, for the opposite reason that I’m usually frustrated by models in science—they seem too simple, when the usual problem with models is over-complexity. Instead of doing more useful things, I wrote this up here. In his post, Parthasarathy writes: Perhaps the models we’re seeing are […]

Last week we discussed the Santa Clara county study, in which 1.5% of the people tested positive for coronavirus. The authors of the study performed some statistical adjustments and summarized with a range of 2.5% to 4.2% for infection rates in the county as a whole, leading to an estimated infection fatality rate of 0.12% […]

This post is by Phil Price, not Andrew. There a couple of things that some people who comment here already know, but some do not, leading to lots of discussion in the comments that keeps rehashing these issues. I’m hoping that by just putting these here I can save some effort. 1. The ‘infection fatality […]

The talk will be sometime the morning of Wed 6 May in this seminar. Title: Some statistical issues in the fight against coronavirus. Abstract: To be a good citizen, you sometimes have to be a bit of a scientist. To be a good scientist, you sometimes have to be a bit of a statistician. And […]

The other day I wrote about the challenge in addressing the pandemic—a worldwide science/engineering problem—using our existing science and engineering infrastructure, which is some mix of government labs and regulatory agencies, private mega-companies, smaller companies, university researchers, and media entities and rich people who can direct attention and resources. The current system might be the […]

Seth Flaxman et al. have an updated version of their model of coronavirus progression. Flaxman writes: Countries with successful control strategies (for example, Greece) never got above small numbers thanks to early, drastic action. Or put another way: if we did China and showed % of population infected (or death rate), we’d erroneously conclude that […]

Joseph Candelora in comments pointed to this updated report on the Santa Clara study we discussed last week. The new report is an improvement on the first version. Here’s what I noticed in a quick look: 1. The summary conclusion, “The estimated population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection […]

tl;dr: Their 95% interval for the infection rate, given the data available, is [0.7%, 1.8%]. My Bayesian interval is [0.3%, 2.4%]. Most of what makes my interval wider is the possibility that the specificity and sensitivity of the tests can vary across labs. To get a narrower interval, you’d need additional assumptions regarding the specificity […]

1. The news! Zad’s cat, pictured above, is not impressed by this bit of cargo-cult science that two people sent to me: No vaccine or effective treatment has yet been found for people suffering from COVID-19. Under the circumstances, a physician in Kansas City wonders whether prayer might make a difference, and he has launched […]

Anthony Fowler wrote a wonderful op-ed. You have to read the whole thing, but let me start with his most important point, about “the temptation to overclaim” in social science: One study estimated the economic value of the people spared through social-distancing efforts. Essentially, the authors took estimates from epidemiologists about the number of lives […]

The University of Washington in Seattle is a big place. It includes the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which has produced a widely-circulated and widely-criticized coronavirus model. As we’ve discussed, the IHME model is essentially a curve-fitting exercise that makes projections using the second derivative of the time trend on the log scale. […]

The commissioner's office said clubs remain committed to playing "as many games as possible" when the season begins.

Researchers from the University of California San Francisco are asking adults to help them fight the novel coronavirus by downloading this smartphone app.

The post New COVID-19 ‘Citizen Science’ Project Lets Any Adult with a Smartphone Help Fight Coronavirus appeared first on Good News Network.

Seniors in the 80s, 90s, and 100s are surviving COVID-19 coronavirus and share advice on how to handle stress of cancelled weddings, and the future.

The post Elders Around the World in Their 80s, 90s, and 100s Are Bouncing Back From Virus – and Sharing Advice appeared first on Good News Network.

Portugal is aiming to leap out of their COVID-19 lockdown by launching a series of clean energy projects that could generate 5.5 billion Euro in investment.

The post Portugal Preparing Several Billion-dollar Clean Energy Projects for Post-Coronavirus Future appeared first on Good News Network.

Up to 3,000 people gathered in Munich, Germany, on May 9 to demonstrate against the restrictions put in place throughout the country to stem the spread of the coronavirus, according to local outlet TAG24. TAG24 reported that the protest had only been registered for 80 people. A larger crowd of people assembled, as this video shot in the central Marienplatz area of Munich shows. Similar protests took place across Germany on the same day in cities such as Berlin, Stuttgart, and Nuremburg. No violence was reported. On May 6, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced steps to ease the country’s coronavirus lockdown and introduced a new “emergency mechanism” that can be triggered by regional authorities to contain local Covid-19 outbreaks. As of May 9, Germany had over 171,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, and 7,525 deaths, according to figures published in Tagesspiegel. Credit: @Franzisker2 via Storyful

Queensland has recorded its third day of zero cases this week but authorities warn the virus has not been eradicated and more cases are expected.

A resident who died in Sydney's Newmarch House had recovered from coronavirus and died of an unrelated illness, NSW Health says.

Vice President Mike Pence's press secretary has the coronavirus, the White House says, making her the second person who works at the White House complex known to test positive for the virus this week.