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ICC’s Influence Can Be Strengthened by Ukraine’s Case

22 April 2020

Kateryna Busol

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Second in a two-part series analysing why Ukraine’s attempts at international justice are worth taking - and outlining how the impact goes far beyond just the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Part two examines Ukraine’s appeal to the International Criminal Court (ICC) to seek individual criminal responsibility of the alleged perpetrators of the gravest crimes in occupied Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

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Marking the Day of The National Flag of Ukraine, a day before celebrations of the anniversary of state independence. Photo by ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images.

The recognition by Ukraine of the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to consider grave crimes allegedly perpetrated in its territory has led to the ICC Prosecutor’s preliminary examination identifying a wave of alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

There are claims of persecution, forced conscription, deportation, sham trials, enforced disappearances, and property seizure - in Crimea. As well as killings, torture, inhuman treatment, sexual violence, and indiscriminate shelling - in Donbas. The court now needs to decide whether to open a full investigation which could lead to charges against specific individuals, as in the trial currently taking place in the Netherlands over MH-17.

However, the ICC does remain a court of last resort as Ukraine retains the principal power to prosecute grave violations perpetrated in its eastern regions and Crimea, with the court only stepping in if Ukraine (or another court with jurisdiction) is either unwilling or unable to do so.

As the evidence mounts up, Ukrainian investigators, prosecutors and judges are becoming more open to cooperation with foreign experts, law firms, human rights NGOs and younger domestic professionals - a significant proportion of whom are women.

Transformation shows determination

This is an unusual shift, given the rigid hierarchical nature of post-Soviet institutions, with elderly males in most of the top positions. The transformation shows the determination to see perpetrators of crimes in Crimea and Donbas tried by the ICC, with joint professional development trainings and joint communications about the alleged crimes.

Ukraine has also been strengthening its institutions. The Prosecutor’s Office of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea has been improving quality control of its war crime proceedings, and has taken a strong pro-ICC stance. The Office of the Prosecutor General established a special department to monitor the armed conflict proceedings, and two specialised war crime units have been formed in Donbas.

Although too early to assess progress - given recent prosecution reform and that much-needed legislation on international crimes is still pending – these are promising signs of Ukraine’s intent to take a specialised approach to armed conflict violations. And Ukrainian civil society organisations are also playing a more important role, documenting alleged crimes and sending evidence to the ICC.

Any intervention by the ICC in Ukraine also has a considerable impact on the wider dynamics of addressing international crimes, further extending the court’s reach beyond a focus on Africa which has attracted widespread criticism since it began in 2002.

The ICC has already opened investigations in Georgia, Bangladesh/Myanmar, and Afghanistan, with preliminary examinations in Colombia, Venezuela, Iraq/UK, Palestine, and The Philippines. But the Ukrainian case would further develop the European subtleties of the court’s jurisprudence.

Although the ICC is currently investigating the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, the active phase of that armed conflict lasted for just five days whereas Russia’s military involvement in Ukraine has been ongoing for the six years. The temporal difference in no way diminishes the suffering of victims and the necessity for the proper investigation, prosecution and compensation in the Georgian context.

And yet, going by even the preliminary findings of the ICC prosecutor, the spectrum of war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly perpetrated in Ukraine is much wider. Some incidents, such as the illegal construction of the Crimean Bridge, is an amalgam of the violations against property, cultural heritage and the environment. Cumulatively, the Ukrainian and Georgian cases would substantially contribute to the development of the court’s emerging European lenses.

The Russia-Ukraine armed conflict is also the first instance of armed hostilities of such magnitude and duration in Europe since World War II and the Yugoslav Wars. The ICC’s readiness to take on such geopolitically challenging cases which leave itself open to attack will be tested.

But by examining new contexts - including Ukraine - the ICC would develop a more layered reading of the nature and scope of the crimes it works on. For example, alleged indoctrination and use of children by armed groups in eastern Ukraine is likely to differ from the known practices of abducting and recruiting child soldiers in Africa.

Investigating evidence of Russia’s persecution of pro-Ukrainian activists - forcing them out of Crimea - coupled with the creation of favourable conditions for Russian citizens to relocate to Crimea could lead to proving the existence of a policy of mass colonisation of the peninsula - adding new layers to the court’s jurisprudence on population displacement. And previously under-prosecuted crimes may come to the fore, such as attacks on cultural property or causing the destruction of the environment.

Although the ICC proceedings on Ukraine – along with those being held by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) - are unlikely to bring immediate results, Ukraine has developed an international adjudication strategy based on the available viable options and what can be practically delivered.

The simple act of a reputed international court outlining Russia’s alleged violations in Crimea and Donbas and naming those individually responsible would be an impactful achievement in itself, regardless of whether Russia pays any attention or compensation.

And any international judgments or those of domestic courts such as the Dutch MH-17 proceedings and Russia’s response - predicted to be non-compliance - is an important argument for continuing sanctions against Russia over its conduct in Ukraine.

The mutually reinforcing effect of both the Crimea and Donbas proceedings within Ukraine and at international courts should not be underestimated. These investigations into war crimes, terrorism and human rights issues are deeply relevant - not only for the conflict itself, but also for the development of international law.

Part One of this series assesses Ukraine’s efforts to hold Russia accountable as a state at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).




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Nuclear Tensions Must Not Be Sidelined During Coronavirus

1 May 2020

Ana Alecsandru

Research Assistant, International Security Programme
Although the pandemic means the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon) is postponed, the delay could be an opportunity to better the health of the NPT regime.

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Painted stairs in Tehran, Iran symbolizing hope. Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

Despite face-to-face diplomatic meetings being increasingly rare during the current disruption, COVID-19 will ultimately force a redefinition of national security and defence spending priorities, and this could provide the possibility of an improved political climate at RevCon when it happens in 2021.

With US presidential elections due in November and a gradual engagement growing between the EU and Iran, there could be a new context for more cooperation between states by 2021. Two key areas of focus over the coming months will be the arms control talks between the United States and Russia, and Iran’s compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal.

It is too early to discern the medium- and longer-term consequences of COVID-19 for defence ministries, but a greater focus on societal resilience and reinvigorating economic productivity will likely undercut the rationale for expensive nuclear modernization.

Therefore, extending the current New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) would be the best, most practical option to give both Russia and the United States time to explore more ambitious multilateral arms control measures, while allowing their current focus to remain on the pandemic and economic relief.

Continuing distrust

But with the current treaty — which limits nuclear warheads, missiles, bombers, and launchers — due to expire in February 2021, the continuing distrust between the United States and Russia makes this extension hard to achieve, and a follow-on treaty even less likely.

Prospects for future bilateral negotiations are hindered by President Donald Trump’s vision for a trilateral arms control initiative involving both China and Russia. But China opposes this on the grounds that its nuclear arsenal is far smaller than that of the two others.

While there appears to be agreement that the nuclear arsenals of China, France, and the UK (the NPT nuclear-weapons states) and those of the states outside the treaty (India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel) will all have to be taken into account going forward, a practical mechanism for doing so proves elusive.

If Joe Biden wins the US presidency he seems likely to pursue an extension of the New START treaty and could also prevent a withdrawal from the Open Skies treaty, the latest arms control agreement targeted by the Trump administration.

Under a Biden administration, the United States would also probably re-join the JCPOA, provided Tehran returned to strict compliance with the deal. Biden could even use the team that negotiated the Iran deal to advance the goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

For an NPT regime already confronted by a series of longstanding divergences, it is essential that Iran remains a signatory especially as tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated recently — due to the Qassim Suleimani assassination and the recent claim by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps to have successfully placed the country’s first military satellite into orbit.

This announcement raised red flags among experts about whether Iran is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles due to the dual-use nature of space technology. The satellite launch — deeply troubling for Iran’s neighbours and the EU countries — may strengthen the US argument that it is a cover for the development of ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

However, as with many other countries, Iran is struggling with a severe coronavirus crisis and will be pouring its scientific expertise and funds into that rather than other efforts — including the nuclear programme.

Those European countries supporting the trading mechanism INSTEX (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) for sending humanitarian goods into Iran could use this crisis to encourage Iran to remain in compliance with the JCPOA and its NPT obligations.

France, Germany and the UK (the E3) have already successfully concluded the first transaction, which was to facilitate the export of medical goods from Europe to Iran. But the recent Iranian escalatory steps will most certainly place a strain on the preservation of this arrangement.

COVID-19 might have delayed Iran’s next breach of the 2015 nuclear agreement but Tehran will inevitably seek to strengthen its hand before any potential negotiations with the United States after the presidential elections.

As frosty US-Iranian relations — exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic — prevent diplomatic negotiations, this constructive engagement between the E3 and Iran might prove instrumental in reviving the JCPOA and ensuring Iran stays committed to both nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.

While countries focus their efforts on tackling the coronavirus pandemic, it is understandable resources may be limited for other global challenges, such as the increasing risk of nuclear weapons use across several regions.

But the potential ramifications of the COVID-19 crisis for the NPT regime are profound. Ongoing tensions between the nuclear-armed states must not be ignored while the world’s focus is elsewhere, and the nuclear community should continue to work together to progress nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, building bridges of cooperation and trust that can long outlast the pandemic.




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Coronavirus: Public Health Emergency or Pandemic – Does Timing Matter?

1 May 2020

Dr Charles Clift

Senior Consulting Fellow, Global Health Programme
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been criticized for delaying its announcements of a public health emergency and a pandemic for COVID-19. But could earlier action have influenced the course of events?

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WHO director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the COVID-19 press briefing on March 11, 2020, the day the coronavirus outbreak was classed as a pandemic. Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the spread of COVID-19 to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 30 this year and then characterized it as a pandemic on March 11.

Declaring a PHEIC is the highest level of alert that WHO is obliged to declare, and is meant to send a powerful signal to countries of the need for urgent action to combat the spread of the disease, mobilize resources to help low- and middle-income countries in this effort and fund research and development on needed treatments, vaccines and diagnostics. It also obligates countries to share information with WHO.

Once the PHEIC was declared, the virus continued to spread globally, and WHO began to be asked why it had not yet declared the disease a pandemic. But there is no widely accepted definition of a pandemic, generally it is just considered an epidemic which affects many countries globally.

Potentially more deadly

The term has hitherto been applied almost exclusively to new forms of flu, such as H1N1 in 2009 or Spanish flu in 1918, where the lack of population immunity and absence of a vaccine or effective treatments makes the outbreak potentially much more deadly than seasonal flu (which, although global, is not considered a pandemic).

For COVID-19, WHO seemed reluctant to declare a pandemic despite the evidence of global spread. Partly this was because of its influenza origins — WHO’s emergency programme executive director said on March 9 that ‘if this was influenza, we would have called a pandemic ages ago’.

He also expressed concern that the word traditionally meant moving — once there was widespread transmission — from trying to contain the disease by testing, isolating the sick and tracing and quarantining their contacts, to a mitigation approach, implying ‘the disease will spread uncontrolled’.

WHO’s worry was that the world’s reaction to the word pandemic might be there was now nothing to be done to stop its spread, and so countries would effectively give up trying. WHO wanted to send the message that, unlike flu, it could still be pushed back and the spread slowed down.

In announcing the pandemic two days later, WHO’s director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reemphasised this point: ‘We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic’ and that WHO was deeply concerned ‘by the alarming levels of inaction’.

The evidence suggests that the correct message did in fact get through. On March 13, US president Donald Trump declared a national emergency, referring in passing to WHO’s announcement. On March 12, the UK launched its own strategy to combat the disease. And in the week following WHO’s announcements, at least 16 other countries announced lockdowns of varying rigour including Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Spain and Switzerland. Italy and Greece had both already instituted lockdowns prior to the WHO pandemic announcement.

It is not possible to say for sure that WHO’s announcement precipitated these measures because, by then, the evidence of the rapid spread was all around for governments to see. It may be that Italy’s dramatic nationwide lockdown on March 9 reverberated around European capitals and elsewhere.

But it is difficult to believe the announcement did not have an effect in stimulating government actions, as was intended by Dr Tedros. Considering the speed with which the virus was spreading from late February, might an earlier pandemic announcement by WHO have stimulated earlier aggressive actions by governments?

Declaring a global health emergency — when appropriate — is a key part of WHO’s role in administering the International Health Regulations (IHR). Significantly, negotiations on revisions to the IHR, which had been ongoing in a desultory fashion in WHO since 1995, were accelerated by the experience of the first serious coronavirus outbreak — SARS — in 2002-2003, leading to their final agreement in 2005.

Under the IHR, WHO’s director-general decides whether to declare an emergency based on a set of criteria and on the advice of an emergency committee. IHR defines an emergency as an ‘extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk through the international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response’.

In the case of COVID-19, the committee first met on January 22-23 but were unable to reach consensus on a declaration. Following the director-general’s trip to meet President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the committee reconvened on January 30 and this time advised declaring a PHEIC.

But admittedly, public recognition of what a PHEIC means is extremely low. Only six have ever been declared, with the first being the H1N1 flu outbreak which fizzled out quickly, despite possibly causing 280,000 deaths globally. During the H1N1 outbreak, WHO declared a PHEIC in April 2009 and then a pandemic in June, only to rescind both in August as the outbreak was judged to have transitioned to behave like a seasonal flu.

WHO was criticized afterwards for prematurely declaring a PHEIC and overreacting. This then may have impacted the delay in declaring the Ebola outbreak in West Africa as a PHEIC in 2014, long after it became a major crisis. WHO’s former legal counsel has suggested the PHEIC — and other aspects of the IHR framework — may not be effective in stimulating appropriate actions by governments and needs to be reconsidered.

When the time is right to evaluate lessons about the response, it might be appropriate to consider the relative effectiveness of the PHEIC and pandemic announcements and their optimal timing in stimulating appropriate action by governments. The effectiveness of lockdowns in reducing the overall death toll also needs investigation.




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Coronavirus Vaccine: Available For All, or When it's Your Turn?

4 May 2020

Professor David Salisbury CB

Associate Fellow, Global Health Programme
Despite high-level commitments and pledges to cooperate to ensure equitable global access to a coronavirus vaccine, prospects for fair distribution are uncertain.

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Researcher in Brazil working on virus replication in order to develop a vaccine against the coronavirus. Photo by DOUGLAS MAGNO/AFP via Getty Images.

When the H1N1 influenza pandemic struck in 2009, some industrialized countries were well prepared. Many countries’ preparedness plans had focused on preparing for an influenza pandemic and based on earlier alerts over the H5N1 ‘bird flu’ virus, countries had made advanced purchase or ‘sleeping’ contracts for vaccine supplies that could be activated as soon as a pandemic was declared. Countries without contracts scrambled to get supplies after those that already had contracts received their vaccine.

Following the 2009 pandemic, the European Union (EU) developed plans for joint-purchase vaccine contracts that any member state could join, guaranteeing the same price per dose for everyone. In 2009, low-income countries were unable to get the vaccine until manufacturers agreed to let 10 per cent of their production go to the World Health Organization (WHO).

The situation for COVID-19 could be even worse. No country had a sleeping contract in place for a COVID-19 vaccine since nobody had anticipated that the next pandemic would be a coronavirus, not an influenza virus. With around 80 candidate vaccines reported to be in development, choosing the right one will be like playing roulette.

These candidates will be whittled down as some will fail at an early stage of development and others will not get to scale-up for manufacturing. All of the world’s major vaccine pharmaceutical companies have said that they will divert resources to manufacture COVID-19 vaccines and, as long as they choose the right candidate for production, they have the expertise and the capacity to produce in huge quantities.

From roulette to a horse race

Our game now changes from roulette to a horse race, as the probability of winning is a matter of odds not a random chance. Countries are now able to try to make contracts alone or in purchasing consortia with other states, and with one of the major companies or with multiple companies. This would be like betting on one of the favourites.

For example, it has been reported that Oxford University has made an agreement with pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, with a possibility of 100 million doses being available by the end of 2020. If the vaccine works and those doses materialize, and are all available for the UK, then the UK population requirements will be met in full, and the challenge becomes vaccinating everyone as quickly as possible.

Even if half of the doses were reserved for the UK, all those in high-risk or occupational groups could be vaccinated rapidly. However, as each major manufacturer accepts more contracts, the quantity that each country will get diminishes and the time to vaccinate the at-risk population gets longer.

At this point, it is not known how manufacturers will respond to requests for vaccine and how they will apportion supplies between different markets. You could bet on an outsider. You study the field and select a biotech that has potential with a good production development programme and a tie-in with a smaller-scale production facility.

If other countries do not try to get contracts, you will get your vaccine as fast as manufacturing can be scaled up; but because it is a small manufacturer, your supplies may take a long time. And outsiders do not often win races. You can of course, depending on your resources, cover several runners and try to make multiple contracts. However, you take on the risk that some will fail, and you may have compromised your eventual supply.

On April 24, the WHO co-hosted a meeting with the president of France, the president of the European Commission and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. It brought together heads of state and industry leaders who committed to ‘work towards equitable global access based on an unprecedented level of partnership’. They agreed ‘to create a strong unified voice, to build on past experience and to be accountable to the world, to communities and to one another’ for vaccines, testing materials and treatments.

They did not, however, say how this will be achieved and the absence of the United States was notable. The EU and its partners are hosting an international pledging conference on May 4 that aims to raise €7.5 billion in initial funding to kick-start global cooperation on vaccines. Co-hosts will be France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Norway and Saudi Arabia and the priorities will be ‘Test, Treat and Prevent’, with the latter dedicated to vaccines.

Despite these expressions of altruism, every government will face the tension between wanting to protect their own populations as quickly as possible and knowing that this will disadvantage poorer countries, where health services are even less able to cope. It will not be a vote winner to offer a share in available vaccine to less-privileged countries.

The factories for the biggest vaccine manufacturers are in Europe, the US and India. Will European manufacturers be obliged by the EU to restrict sales first to European countries? Will the US invoke its Defense Production Act and block vaccine exports until there are stocks enough for every American? And will vaccine only be available in India for those who can afford it?

The lessons on vaccine availability from the 2009 influenza pandemic are clear: vaccine was not shared on anything like an equitable basis. It remains to be seen if we will do any better in 2020.




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Coronavirus: Could a People’s Bailout Help?

7 May 2020

Jim O'Neill

Chair, Chatham House

Lyndsey Jefferson

Digital Editor, Communications and Publishing Department
The coronavirus crisis has resulted in an unprecedented economic downturn. Conventional quantitative easing measures used after the 2008 financial crisis will not be enough this time.

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Local residents line up outside a food pantry during the COVID-19 pandemic on 23 April 2020 in Brooklyn, New York. Due to increased levels of unemployment, the lines at the daily food pantry have been getting longer. Photo: Getty Images.

What is quantitative easing? How was it used after the 2008 financial crisis?

Quantitative easing (QE) has been in existence since the Japanese central bank introduced it at the turn of the millennium. The simplest way to think about it is this: when interest rates can't go down anymore and play their normal role of stimulating growth, central banks try to expand the money supply. So, they're expanding the quantitative amount of money they put into the system. 

Of course, after 2008 because of the scale of the financial and economic collapse, many Western countries resorted to QE. Some have never gotten rid of it. Others have started to, but as a result of this crisis, have gone straight back to that playbook.

33 million Americans have now filed for unemployment and one in five American workers have lost their jobs due to COVID-19. These are levels not seen since the Great Depression. You recently called for G20 countries to provide income support for all citizens. Why is this so urgent to implement now?

It is incredible to reflect back on the short time since I published that piece. I entitled it the need for a so-called people's QE, and in some ways a number of European countries, including the UK, have executed some aspects of what I was suggesting. 

The United States has not, even though the absolute amounts of money the US authorities have put through their fiscal system to try and support the economy is actually bigger as a percentage of GDP than many in Europe. 

What they haven't done is support ongoing employment through various schemes that many European countries have done, of which the UK has, to some degree, been one of the most ambitious.

That’s partly why you see such enormous filing for unemployment claims in the US. There’s no direct support to encourage employers to keep their employees on, in complete contrast to what you see in many Scandinavian countries who were the first to do it in Europe, and something the UK has since done. 

On a practical level, what might a smart people’s QE look like? 

We are living in an extraordinary time. Like many others in my generation, it’s nothing that any of us have gone through. Perhaps economically, the only parallel one can find is from the 1920s and 1930s.

It became obvious to me in early March that governments are going to have to essentially force as many of us as possible, if we weren't doing absolutely crucial necessities, to stop working or to work from home. It was pretty obvious that the consequences could be horrific. 

So, the idea of a people's QE that I suggested then, some would have regarded as quite audacious. The most dramatic thing that could be done was, to put it simply, governments effectively pay for every business and every employee to have a two month paid holiday. Obviously, this would cost a very large amount of money for governments, but it would be the least disruptive way of getting us all to stay home.

And when the time is right to start letting us get back to anything vaguely like normality, there wouldn't be as much permanent disruption. I think about six weeks have passed since I wrote that piece. Actually, given the policies many governments have announced, I'm not sure undertaking the audacity in generosity of what I suggested would have cost any more. Over the long term, it might have actually turned out to be less. 

Of course, there are ethics issues around whether the system could be gamed or not, amongst other issues. But six weeks later, I still believe that would have been the smartest thing to do. It certainly would have been much better than trying to encourage many businesses, particularly smaller ones, to take out loans.

A couple of countries got close to what I was suggesting – Germany and Switzerland were very quick to give 100% government guarantees to business, as well as generous wage support systems. But a number of other countries haven't, like the US, even though they wrote a $1200 check for each citizen. 

Should a people’s QE involve the purchase and write off of consumer debt and student debt by a central bank? 

I think these things might have to be considered. I remember being on a conference call to Chatham House members where we discussed what would be the likely economic consequences and what policymakers should do. One person on the call was talking about quite conventional forms of policy just through various forms of standard QE. 

During the Q&A, someone asked whether we thought the US Federal Reserve might end up buying equities. And I said, well, why not? Eventually, it might come to that. 

Actually, before that discussion was over, the Fed coincidentally announced they were going to buy high-yield corporate bonds, or very risky company debt. This is something that would have been unheard of even by the playbook of 2008. 

So, I don't think ideas like a kind of provision to help student debtors is entirely crazy. These are things that our policymakers are going to have to think about as we go forward in the challenging and unpredictable days and weeks ahead. 

Poorer countries like El Salvador have gone as far as cancelling rent and major utility bills for its citizens. Do you think countries like the US and UK have gone far enough to help people during the crisis?

Going one step further than a people’s QE and postponing major payments is a pretty interesting concept. I think in reality, it would be very disruptive to the medium to long-term mechanism of our societies. It could be very, very complicated. 

But, of course, some parts of the G20 nations, including the UK, have moved significantly in these areas as it relates to rent payments or mortgage payments. There have been significant mortgage holidays being introduced for many sectors of our community. I think the British government has been quite thoughtful about it without doing the whole hog of potentially getting rid of our transaction system for two months or beyond.

You know, this may well be something that has to be considered if, God forbid, there is a second peak of the virus. If countries come out of a lockdown and all that results in is a dramatic rise in infections and then death again, we're going to end up right back where we are. Policymakers may have to implement more generous versions of what we've done already, despite what the long term debt consequences could be.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act in the US has been criticized as a corporate bailout while offering little to the American people. It was recently reported that hedge fund managers are applying for bailouts as ‘small businesses.’ Do you think more oversight is needed in how the stimulus funds are allocated? 

The speed at which many countries have responded and introduced policies means that there's going to be some gaping holes which allow people to unfairly benefit from the system. And if indeed, that were to be the case, I cannot see why a hedge fund should benefit from government generosity.

A true hedge fund is supposed to be a form of investment manager that thrives in times of great volatility, and knows how to better navigate such financial markets than more conventional funds. So this shouldn’t be an environment where hedge funds seek the same kind of help as small businesses. That is certainly something the government should be very careful about.

Some economists argue that central banks are not independent as they finance fiscal spending through purchase of government bonds. Do the strong measures taken by central banks in response to the crisis undermine the argument for central bank independence? 

In my view, an effective central bank has to do whatever is necessary, including doing very unconventional things, when the society in which that central bank operates needs it. 

Most of the time, central banks are pretty boring places, but they really become crucial organizations when we go through times like the 1920s, 1930s, 2008, and of course, this current crisis. If they want to maintain their legitimacy, whatever the true parliamentary or congressional legal standing is, they have to do things quickly and as we've seen in this case, differently than the convention in order to do what our societies need. 

Somebody was asking me just last week whether the Fed buying high grade debt was legal or not. I think that’s a pretty irrelevant conversation because if it’s not legal now, it will be made legal tomorrow. So, I think central banks have to keep their legitimacy and they have to do what is necessary when the time requires it. In that sense, I think most central banks have handled this crisis so far pretty well.




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COVID-19 Crisis – Business as Usual for Gaza?

6 May 2020

Mohammed Abdalfatah

Asfari Foundation Academy Fellow
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented challenges, economic collapse and strict lockdowns in many parts of the world. For the people of Gaza, this reality is nothing new.

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Palestinians light fireworks above the rubble during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan amid concerns about the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Gaza City , 30 April 2020. Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

In August 2012, when the UN released its report Gaza in 2020: A liveable place?, they could not have imagined what the world would look like in 2020: cities under lockdown, restrictions on movement, border closures, widespread unemployment, economic collapse, fear and anxiety and, above all, uncertainty about what the future holds.

For Gaza’s population of 2 million people this reality is nothing new. The conditions that the rest of the world are currently experiencing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is similar to the tight blockade Gaza has been living under ever since Hamas took over in 2007. Israel has imposed severe restrictions on the movement of people and goods, youth unemployment has reached 60 per cent, and over 80 per cent of Gaza’s population are now dependent on international aid.

The people of Gaza are having to face the COVID-19 crisis already at a disadvantage, with poor infrastructure, limited resources and a shortage of the most basic services, such as water and power supply. It also has a fragile health system, with hospitals lacking essential medical supplies and equipment, as well as the capacity to deal with the outbreak as there are only 84 ICU beds and ventilators available.

 

Meanwhile, intra-Palestinian divisions have persisted and were evident in the initial reaction to the pandemic. When President Mahmoud Abbas announced a state of emergency, it took two days for the Hamas-led government in Gaza to follow suit and shut down schools and universities. They later made a separate emergency appeal to address the crisis and prepare for a COVID-19 response in Gaza. This lack of coordination is typical of the way the Palestinian Authority and Hamas approach crisis situations.

After the initial uncoordinated response, Hamas, as the de-facto ruler of Gaza, has asserted its ability to control Gaza’s borders by putting in place quarantine measures for everyone who enters the strip, whether through the Erez checkpoint with Israel or the Rafah border with Egypt. They have also assigned 21 hospitals, hotels, and schools as compulsory quarantine centres for all arrivals from abroad, who have to stay in quarantine for 21 days. In comparison, there are 20 quarantine centres in the West Bank.  These strict measures have prevented the spread of the virus in the community and confined it to the quarantine centres, with only 20 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of 6 May. Gaza’s de-facto authorities have also been able to monitor markets and prices to ensure the availability of essential goods.

Faced with a major crisis, Al-Qassam Brigades – the armed wing of Hamas – have tried to play the role of a national army by participating in efforts to fight the pandemic. They have relatively good logistical capacity and have contributed to the construction of two quarantine facilities with a total capacity of 1,000 units to prepare for more arrivals into Gaza. At the local level, municipalities have been disinfecting public spaces and facilities in addition to disseminating information about the virus and related preventative and protective measures. Other precautionary measures put in place include closing the weekly open markets, and restricting social gatherings like weddings and funerals.

Despite COVID-19, it’s business as usual when it comes to international dealings with Gaza. The key parties in the conflict – Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority – along with the main external actors – Egypt, the United Nations and Qatar – have continued to stick to their policies aimed at keeping the security situation under control and preventing further escalation. Although Israel has allowed entry of pharmaceutical supplies and medical equipment into Gaza during the pandemic, it has kept its restrictions on the movement of goods and people in place, while keeping a close eye on the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Gaza – a major outbreak here would be a nightmare scenario for Israel.

Meanwhile, Qatar has continued to address the humanitarian and economic needs of Gaza in an attempt to ease the pressure and prevent further escalation. It has pledged $150 million over the next six months to help families in Gaza from poorer backgrounds. Gaza has also been discussed by the Middle East Quartet, as Nickolay Mladenov, the UN special coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, expressed his concern about the risk of a disease outbreak in Gaza during a call with the members of the Quartet.

Amid the pandemic, threats are still being exchanged between Israel and Hamas. The Israeli defence minister, Naftali Bennett, requested that in return for providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, Hamas agrees to return the remains of two Israeli soldiers killed in the 2014 war. While openly rejecting Bennett's statement, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has offered to move forward with a prisoner swap deal if Israel agrees to release elderly prisoners and detainees in addition to detained women and children. Though dealing with its own COVID-19 outbreak, Egypt has started to mediate between the two parties in an attempt to stabilize the situation and reach a prisoner swap deal.

In the wake of this pandemic, lessons should be learned and policies should be examined, by all parties. Firstly, Israel should re-evaluate its security measures towards Gaza by easing restrictions on movement and trade which would have a positive impact on living conditions for Gaza’s population. The current measures have proven to be unsustainable and have contributed to the endless cycle of violence. Secondly, the intra-Palestinian division should end, to save Palestinians from contradictory policies and insufficient capacity on both sides. In fact, all previous attempts have failed to end this self-destructive division and this is due to the absence of political will on both sides. Elections seem to be the only viable path towards unity. Finally, efforts by the international community should go beyond stabilizing the security situation and ongoing crisis inside Gaza, where disruption of normal life is the norm.

While the world has reacted to this pandemic with a whole host of new policies and emergency measures, it has remained business as usual when dealing with Gaza. Should COVID-19 spread in Gaza, its people – who have already paid the price of a continuous blockade and intra-Palestinian division for 13 years – will pay a heavy price yet again. However, this time it is not a crisis that they alone will have to face.




b

Detection of multiple autoantibodies in patients with ankylosing spondylitis using nucleic acid programmable protein arrays [11. Microarrays/Combinatorics/Display Technology]

Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) is a common, inflammatory rheumatic disease, which primarily affects the axial skeleton and is associated with sacroiliitis, uveitis and enthesitis. Unlike other autoimmune rheumatic diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis or systemic lupus erythematosus, autoantibodies have not yet been reported to be a feature of AS. We therefore wished to determine if plasma from patients with AS contained autoantibodies and if so, characterize and quantify this response in comparison to patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) and healthy controls. Two high-density nucleic acid programmable protein arrays expressing a total of 3498 proteins were screened with plasma from 25 patients with AS, 17 with RA and 25 healthy controls. Autoantigens identified were subjected to Ingenuity Pathway Analysis in order to determine patterns of signalling cascades or tissue origin. 44% of patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis demonstrated a broad autoantibody response, as compared to 33% of patients with RA and only 8% of healthy controls. Individuals with AS demonstrated autoantibody responses to shared autoantigens, and 60% of autoantigens identified in the AS cohort were restricted to that group. The AS patients autoantibody responses were targeted towards connective, skeletal and muscular tissue, unlike those of RA patients or healthy controls. Thus, patients with AS show evidence of systemic humoral autoimmunity and multispecific autoantibody production. Nucleic Acid Programmable Protein Arrays constitute a powerful tool to study autoimmune diseases.




b

Metabolic profiling in colorectal cancer reveals signature metabolic shifts during tumorigenesis [13. Other]

Colorectal cancer (CRC) arises as the consequence of progressive changes from normal epithelial cells through polyp to tumor, and thus is an useful model for studying metabolic shift. In the present study, we studied the metabolomic profiles using high analyte specific gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) to attain a systems-level view of the shift in metabolism in cells progressing along the path to CRC. Colonic tissues including tumor, polyps and adjacent matched normal mucosa from 26 patients with sporadic CRC from freshly isolated resections were used for this study. The metabolic profiles were obtained using GC/MS and LC/MS/MS. Our data suggest there was a distinct profile change of a wide range of metabolites from mucosa to tumor tissues. Various amino acids and lipids in the polyps and tumors were elevated, suggesting higher energy needs for increased cellular proliferation. In contrast, significant depletion of glucose and inositol in polyps revealed that glycolysis may be critical in early tumorigenesis. In addition, the accumulation of hypoxanthine and xanthine, and the decrease of uric acid concentration, suggest that the purine biosynthesis pathway could have been substituted by the salvage pathway in CRC. Further, there was a step-wise reduction of deoxycholic acid concentration from mucosa to tumors. It appears that to gain a growth advantage, cancer cells may adopt alternate metabolic pathways in tumorigenesis and this flexibility allows them to adapt and thrive in harsh environment.




b

Interpretation of data underlying the link between CCD and an invertebrate iridescent virus [Invited]

No abstract




b

The Beauty of Proteomics [Invited]

Cover art by Julie Newdoll for MCP April issue.




b

Principles of electrospray ionization [Biophysical Methods]

Electrospray ionization is today the most widely used ionization technique in chemical and bio-chemical analysis. Interfaced with a mass spectrometer it allows to investigate the molecular composition of liquid samples. With electrospray a large variety of chemical substances can be ionized. There is no limitation in mass which enables even the investigation of large non-covalent protein complexes. Its high ionization efficiency profoundly changed bio-molecular sciences because proteins can be identified and quantified on trace amounts in a high throughput fashion. This review article focusses mainly on the exploration of the underlying ionization mechanism. Some ionization characteristics are discussed which are related to this mechanism. Typical spectra of peptides, proteins and non-covalent complexes are shown and the quantitative character of spectra is highlighted. Finally the possibilities and limitations in measuring the association constant of bivalent non-covalent complexes are described.




b

The ProteoRed MIAPE web toolkit: A user-friendly framework to connect and share proteomics standards [Technology]

The development of the HUPO-PSI's (Proteomics Standards Initiative) standard data formats and MIAPE (Minimum Information About a Proteomics Experiment) guidelines should improve proteomics data sharing within the scientific community. Proteomics journals have encouraged the use of these standards and guidelines to improve the quality of experimental reporting and ease the evaluation and publication of manuscripts. However, there is an evident lack of bioinformatics tools specifically designed to create and edit standard file formats and reports, or embed them within proteomics workflows. In this article, we describe a new web-based software suite (The ProteoRed MIAPE web toolkit) that performs several complementary roles related to proteomic data standards. Firstly, it can verify the reports fulfill the minimum information requirements of the corresponding MIAPE modules, highlighting inconsistencies or missing information. Secondly, the toolkit can convert several XML-based data standards directly into human readable MIAPE reports stored within the ProteoRed MIAPE repository. Finally, it can also perform the reverse operation, allowing users to export from MIAPE reports into XML files for computational processing, data sharing or public database submission. The toolkit is thus the first application capable of automatically linking the PSI's MIAPE modules with the corresponding XML data exchange standards, enabling bidirectional conversions. This toolkit is freely available at http://www.proteored.org/MIAPE/.




b

Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves Protein Quantification of Global Proteomic Measurements [Technology]

As the capability of mass spectrometry-based proteomics has matured, tens of thousands of peptides can be measured simultaneously, which has the benefit of offering a systems view of protein expression. However, a major challenge is that with an increase in throughput, protein quantification estimation from the native measured peptides has become a computational task. A limitation to existing computationally-driven protein quantification methods is that most ignore protein variation, such as alternate splicing of the RNA transcript and post-translational modifications or other possible proteoforms, which will affect a significant fraction of the proteome. The consequence of this assumption is that statistical inference at the protein level, and consequently downstream analyses, such as network and pathway modeling, have only limited power for biomarker discovery. Here, we describe a Bayesian model (BP-Quant) that uses statistically derived peptides signatures to identify peptides that are outside the dominant pattern, or the existence of multiple over-expressed patterns to improve relative protein abundance estimates. It is a research-driven approach that utilizes the objectives of the experiment, defined in the context of a standard statistical hypothesis, to identify a set of peptides exhibiting similar statistical behavior relating to a protein. This approach infers that changes in relative protein abundance can be used as a surrogate for changes in function, without necessarily taking into account the effect of differential post-translational modifications, processing, or splicing in altering protein function. We verify the approach using a dilution study from mouse plasma samples and demonstrate that BP-Quant achieves similar accuracy as the current state-of-the-art methods at proteoform identification with significantly better specificity. BP-Quant is available as a MatLab ® and R packages at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/BP-Quant.




b

Quantitative profiling of protein tyrosine kinases in human cancer cell lines by multiplexed parallel reaction monitoring assays [Technology]

Protein tyrosine kinases (PTKs) play key roles in cellular signal transduction, cell cycle regulation, cell division, and cell differentiation. Dysregulation of PTK-activated pathways, often by receptor overexpression, gene amplification, or genetic mutation, is a causal factor underlying numerous cancers. In this study, we have developed a parallel reaction monitoring (PRM)-based assay for quantitative profiling of 83 PTKs. The assay detects 308 proteotypic peptides from 54 receptor tyrosine kinases and 29 nonreceptor tyrosine kinases in a single run. Quantitative comparisons were based on the labeled reference peptide method. We implemented the assay in four cell models: 1) a comparison of proliferating versus epidermal growth factor (EGF)-stimulated A431 cells, 2) a comparison of SW480Null (mutant APC) and SW480APC (APC restored) colon tumor cell lines, and 3) a comparison of 10 colorectal cancer cell lines with different genomic abnormalities, and 4) lung cancer cell lines with either susceptibility (11-18) or acquired resistance (11-18R) to the epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor erlotinib. We observed distinct PTK expression changes that were induced by stimuli, genomic features or drug resistance, which were consistent with previous reports. However, most of the measured expression differences were novel observations. For example, acquired resistance to erlotinib in the 11-18 cell model was associated not only with previously reported upregulation of MET, but also with upregulation of FLK2 and downregulation of LYN and PTK7. Immunoblot analyses and shotgun proteomics data were highly consistent with PRM data. Multiplexed PRM assays provide a targeted, systems-level profiling approach to evaluate cancer-related proteotypes and adaptations. Data are available through Proteome eXchange Accession PXD002706.




b

Translating Divergent Environmental Stresses into a Common Proteome Response through Hik33 in a Model Cyanobacterium [Research]

The histidine kinase Hik33 plays important roles in mediating cyanobacterial response to divergent types of abiotic stresses including cold, salt, high light (HL), and osmotic stresses. However, how these functions are regulated by Hik33 remains to be addressed. Using a hik33-deficient strain (hik33) of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 (Synechocystis) and quantitative proteomics, we found that Hik33 depletion induces differential protein expression highly similar to that induced by divergent types of stresses. This typically includes downregulation of proteins in photosynthesis and carbon assimilation that are necessary for cell propagation, and upregulation of heat shock proteins, chaperons, and proteases that are important for cell survival. This observation indicates that depletion of Hik33 alone mimics divergent types of abiotic stresses, and that Hik33 could be important for preventing abnormal stress response in the normal condition. Moreover, we found the majority of proteins of plasmid origin were significantly upregulated in hik33, though their biological significance remains to be addressed. Together, the systematically characterized Hik33-regulated cyanobacterial proteome, which is largely involved in stress responses, builds the molecular basis for Hik33 as a general regulator of stress responses.




b

MaxQuant software for ion mobility enhanced shotgun proteomics [Technological Innovation and Resources]

Ion mobility can add a dimension to LC-MS based shotgun proteomics which has the potential to boost proteome coverage, quantification accuracy and dynamic range.  Required for this is suitable software that extracts the information contained in the four-dimensional (4D) data space spanned by m/z, retention time, ion mobility and signal intensity. Here we describe the ion mobility enhanced MaxQuant software, which utilizes the added data dimension. It offers an end to end computational workflow for the identification and quantification of peptides and proteins in LC-IMS-MS/MS shotgun proteomics data. We apply it to trapped ion mobility spectrometry (TIMS) coupled to a quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) analyzer. A highly parallelizable 4D feature detection algorithm extracts peaks which are assembled to isotope patterns. Masses are recalibrated with a non-linear m/z, retention time, ion mobility and signal intensity dependent model, based on peptides from the sample. A new matching between runs (MBR) algorithm that utilizes collisional cross section (CCS) values of MS1 features in the matching process significantly gains specificity from the extra dimension. Prerequisite for using CCS values in MBR is a relative alignment of the ion mobility values between the runs. The missing value problem in protein quantification over many samples is greatly reduced by CCS aware MBR.MS1 level label-free quantification is also implemented which proves to be highly precise and accurate on a benchmark dataset with known ground truth. MaxQuant for LC-IMS-MS/MS is part of the basic MaxQuant release and can be downloaded from http://maxquant.org.




b

Immediate adaptation analysis implicates BCL6 as an EGFR-TKI combination therapy target in NSCLC [Research]

Drug resistance is a major obstacle to curative cancer therapies, and increased understanding of the molecular events contributing to resistance would enable better prediction of therapy response, as well as contribute to new targets for combination therapy. Here we have analyzed the early molecular response to epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibition using RNA sequencing data covering 13 486 genes and mass spectrometry data covering 10 138 proteins. This analysis revealed a massive response to EGFR inhibition already within the first 24 hours, including significant regulation of hundreds of genes known to control downstream signaling, such as transcription factors, kinases, phosphatases and ubiquitin E3-ligases. Importantly, this response included upregulation of key genes in multiple oncogenic signaling pathways that promote proliferation and survival, such as ERBB3, FGFR2, JAK3 and BCL6, indicating an early adaptive response to EGFR inhibition. Using a library of more than 500 approved and experimental compounds in a combination therapy screen, we could show that several kinase inhibitors with targets including JAK3 and FGFR2 increased the response to EGFR inhibitors. Further, we investigated the functional impact of BCL6 upregulation in response to EGFR inhibition using siRNA-based silencing of BCL6. Proteomics profiling revealed that BCL6 inhibited transcription of multiple target genes including p53, resulting in reduced apoptosis which implicates BCL6 upregulation as a new EGFR inhibitor treatment escape mechanism. Finally, we demonstrate that combined treatment targeting both EGFR and BCL6 act synergistically in killing lung cancer cells. In conclusion, or data indicates that multiple different adaptive mechanisms may act in concert to blunt the cellular impact of EGFR inhibition, and we suggest BCL6 as a potential target for EGFR inhibitor-based combination therapy.




b

Proteome and phosphoproteome analysis of brown adipocytes reveals that RICTOR loss dampens global insulin/AKT signaling [Research]

Stimulating brown adipose tissue (BAT) activity represents a promising therapy for overcoming metabolic diseases. mTORC2 is important for regulating BAT metabolism, but its downstream targets have not been fully characterized. In this study, we apply proteomics and phosphoproteomics to investigate the downstream effectors of mTORC2 in brown adipocytes. We compare wild-type controls to isogenic cells with an induced knockout of the mTORC2 subunit RICTOR (Rictor-iKO) by stimulating each with insulin for a 30-minute time course. In Rictor-iKO cells, we identify decreases to the abundance of glycolytic and de novo lipogenesis enzymes, and increases to mitochondrial proteins as well as a set of proteins known to increase upon interferon stimulation. We also observe significant differences to basal phosphorylation due to chronic RICTOR loss including decreased phosphorylation of the lipid droplet protein perilipin-1 in Rictor-iKO cells, suggesting that RICTOR could be involved with regulating basal lipolysis or droplet dynamics. Finally, we observe mild dampening of acute insulin signaling response in Rictor-iKO cells, and a subset of AKT substrates exhibiting statistically significant dependence on RICTOR.




b

Investigation of inter- and intra-tumoral heterogeneity of glioblastoma using TOF-SIMS [Research]

Glioblastoma (GBM) is one of the most aggressive human cancers with a median survival of less than two years. A distinguishing pathological feature of GBM is a high degree of inter- and intratumoral heterogeneity. Intertumoral heterogeneity of GBM has been extensively investigated on genomic, methylomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomics levels, however only a few studies describe intratumoral heterogeneity due to the lack of methods allowing to analyze GBM samples with high spatial resolution. Here, we applied TOF-SIMS (Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry) for the analysis of single cells and clinical samples such as paraffin and frozen tumor sections obtained from 57 patients. We developed a technique that allows us to simultaneously detect the distribution of proteins and metabolites in glioma tissue with 800 nm spatial resolution. Our results demonstrate that according to TOF-SIMS data glioma samples can be subdivided into clinically relevant groups and distinguished from the normal brain tissue. In addition, TOF-SIMS was able to elucidate differences between morphologically distinct regions of GBM within the same tumor. By staining GBM sections with gold-conjugated antibodies against Caveolin-1 we could visualize border between zones of necrotic and cellular tumor and subdivide glioma samples into groups characterized by different survival of the patients. Finally, we demonstrated that GBM contains cells that are characterized by high levels of Caveolin-1 protein and cholesterol. This population may partly represent a glioma stem cells. Collectively, our results show that the technique described here allows to analyze glioma tissues with a spatial resolution beyond reach of most of other omics approaches and the obtained data may be used to predict clinical behavior of the tumor.




b

Characterization of signaling pathways associated with pancreatic {beta}-cell adaptive flexibility in compensation of obesity-linked diabetes in db/db mice [Research]

The onset of obesity-linked type 2 diabetes (T2D) is marked by an eventual failure in pancreatic β-cell function and mass that is no longer able to compensate for the inherent insulin resistance and increased metabolic load intrinsic to obesity. However, in a commonly used model of T2D, the db/db mouse, β-cells have an inbuilt adaptive flexibility enabling them to effectively adjust insulin production rates relative to the metabolic demand. Pancreatic β-cells from these animals have markedly reduced intracellular insulin stores, yet high rates of (pro)insulin secretion, together with a substantial increase in proinsulin biosynthesis highlighted by expanded rough endoplasmic reticulum and Golgi apparatus. However, when the metabolic overload and/or hyperglycemia is normalized, β-cells from db/db mice quickly restore their insulin stores and normalize secretory function. This demonstrates the β-cell’s adaptive flexibility and indicates that therapeutic approaches applied to encourage β-cell rest are capable of restoring endogenous β-cell function. However, mechanisms that regulate β-cell adaptive flexibility are essentially unknown. To gain deeper mechanistic insight into the molecular events underlying β-cell adaptive flexibility in db/db β-cells, we conducted a combined proteomic and post-translational modification specific proteomic (PTMomics) approach on islets from db/db mice and wild-type controls (WT) with or without prior exposure to normal glucose levels. We identified differential modifications of proteins involved in redox homeostasis, protein refolding, K48-linked deubiquitination, mRNA/protein export, focal adhesion, ERK1/2 signaling, and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone signaling, as well as sialyltransferase activity, associated with β-cell adaptive flexibility. These proteins are all related to proinsulin biosynthesis and processing, maturation of insulin secretory granules, and vesicular trafficking—core pathways involved in the adaptation of insulin production to meet metabolic demand. Collectively, this study outlines a novel and comprehensive global PTMome signaling map that highlights important molecular mechanisms related to the adaptive flexibility of β-cell function, providing improved insight into disease pathogenesis of T2D.




b

Modulation of natural HLA-B*27:05 ligandome by ankylosing spondylitis-associated endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 2 (ERAP2) [Research]

The human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-B*27:05 allele and the endoplasmic reticulum-resident aminopeptidases are strongly associated with ankylosing spondylitis (AS), a chronic inflammatory spondyloarthropathy. This study examined the effect of endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 2 (ERAP2) in the generation of the natural HLA-B*27:05 ligandome in live cells. Complexes of HLA-B*27:05-bound peptide pools were isolated from human ERAP2-edited cell clones and the peptides were identified using high throughput mass spectrometry analyses. The relative abundance of thousand ligands was established by quantitative tandem mass spectrometry and bioinformatics analysis. The residue frequencies at different peptide position, identified in presence or absence of ERAP2, determined structural features of ligands and their interactions with specific pockets of antigen binding site of HLA-B*27:05 molecule. Sequence alignment of ligands identified with species of bacteria associated with HLA-B*27-dependent reactive arthritis was performed. In the absence of ERAP2, peptides with N-terminal basic residues, and minority canonical P2 residues are enriched in the natural ligandome. Further, alterations of residue frequencies and hydrophobicity profile at P3, P7, and P positions were detected. In addition, several ERAP2-dependent cellular peptides were highly similar to protein sequences of arthritogenic bacteria, including one human HLA-B*27:05 ligand fully conserved in a protein from Campylobacter jejuni. These findings highlight the pathogenic role of this aminopeptidase in the triggering of AS autoimmune disease.




b

Characterization of Prenylated C-terminal Peptides Using a Thiopropyl-based Capture Technique and LC-MS/MS [Research]

Post-translational modifications play a critical and diverse role in regulating cellular activities. Despite their fundamentally important role in cellular function, there has been no report to date of an effective generalized approach to the targeting, extraction and characterization of the critical c-terminal regions of natively prenylated proteins. Various chemical modification and metabolic labelling strategies in cell culture have been reported. However, their applicability is limited to cell culture systems and does not allow for analysis of tissue samples. The chemical characteristics (hydrophobicity, low abundance, highly basic charge) of many of the c-terminal regions of prenylated proteins have impaired the use of standard proteomic workflows. In this context, we sought a direct approach to the problem in order to examine these proteins in tissue without the use of labelling.  Here we demonstrate that prenylated proteins can be captured on chromatographic resins functionalized with mixed disulfide functions. Protease treatment of resin-bound proteins using chymotryptic digestion revealed peptides from many known prenylated proteins. Exposure of the protease-treated resin to reducing agents and hydro organic mixtures released c-terminal peptides with intact prenyl groups along with other enzymatic modifications expected in this protein family. Database and search parameters were selected to allow for c-terminal modifications unique to these molecules such as CAAX box processing and c-terminal methylation. In summary, we present a direct approach to enrich and obtain information at a molecular level of detail about prenylation of proteins from tissue and cell extracts using high performance LCMS without the need for metabolic labeling and derivatization.




b

Quantitative proteomics of human heart samples collected in vivo reveal the remodeled protein landscape of dilated left atrium without atrial fibrillation [Research]

Genetic and genomic research has greatly advanced our understanding of heart disease. Yet, comprehensive, in-depth, quantitative maps of protein expression in hearts of living humans are still lacking. Using samples obtained during valve replacement surgery in patients with mitral valve prolapse (MVP), we set out to define inter-chamber differences, the intersect of proteomic data with genetic or genomic datasets, and the impact of left atrial dilation on the proteome of patients with no history of atrial fibrillation (AF).  We collected biopsies from right atria (RA), left atria (LA) and left ventricle (LV) of seven male patients with mitral valve regurgitation with dilated LA but no history of AF. Biopsy samples were analyzed by high-resolution mass spectrometry (MS), where peptides were pre-fractionated by reverse phase high-pressure liquid chromatography prior to MS measurement on a Q-Exactive-HF Orbitrap instrument. We identified 7,314 proteins based on 130,728 peptides. Results were confirmed in an independent set of biopsies collected from three additional individuals. Comparative analysis against data from post-mortem samples showed enhanced quantitative power and confidence level in samples collected from living hearts. Our analysis, combined with data from genome wide association studies suggested candidate gene associations to MVP, identified higher abundance in ventricle for proteins associated with cardiomyopathies and revealed the dilated LA proteome, demonstrating differential representation of molecules previously associated with AF, in non-AF hearts. This is the largest dataset of cardiac protein expression from human samples collected in vivo. It provides a comprehensive resource that allows insight into molecular fingerprints of MVP and facilitates novel inferences between genomic data and disease mechanisms. We propose that over-representation of proteins in ventricle is consequent not to redundancy but to functional need, and conclude that changes in abundance of proteins known to associate with AF are not sufficient for arrhythmogenesis.




b

Dysregulation of Exosome Cargo by Mutant Tau Expressed in Human-Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell (iPSC) Neurons Revealed by Proteomics Analyses [Research]

Accumulation and propagation of hyperphosphorylated tau (p-tau) is a common neuropathological hallmark associated with neurodegeneration of Alzheimer's disease (AD), frontotemporal dementia and parkinsonism linked to chromosome 17 (FTDP-17), and related tauopathies. Extracellular vesicles, specifically exosomes, have recently been demonstrated to participate in mediating tau propagation in brain. Exosomes produced by human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived neurons expressing mutant Tau (mTau), containing the P301L and V337M Tau mutations of FTDP-17, possess the ability to propagate p-tau pathology after injection into mouse brain.  To gain an understanding of the mTau exosome cargo involved in tau pathogenesis, these pathogenic exosomes were analyzed by proteomics and bioinformatics. The data showed that mTau expression dysregulates the exosome proteome to result in (1) proteins uniquely present only in mTau, and not control exosomes, (2) the absence of proteins in mTau exosomes, uniquely present in control exosomes, and (3) shared proteins which were significantly up-regulated or down-regulated in mTau compared to control exosomes. Notably, mTau exosomes (not control exosomes) contain ANP32A (also known as I1PP2A), an endogenous inhibitor of the PP2A phosphatase which regulates the phosphorylation state of p-tau.  Several of the mTau exosome-specific proteins have been shown to participate in AD mechanisms involving lysosomes, inflammation, secretases, and related processes.  Furthermore, the mTau exosomes lacked a substantial portion of proteins present in control exosomes involved in pathways of localization, vesicle transport, and protein binding functions. The shared proteins present in both mTau and control exosomes represented exosome functions of vesicle-mediated transport, exocytosis, and secretion processes. These data illustrate mTau as a dynamic regulator of the biogenesis of exosomes to result in acquisition, deletion, and up- or down-regulation of protein cargo to result in pathogenic mTau exosomes capable of in vivo propagation of p-tau neuropathology in mouse brain. 




b

Acquiring and Analyzing Data Independent Acquisition Proteomics Experiments without Spectrum Libraries [Perspective]

Data independent acquisition (DIA) is an attractive alternative to standard shotgun proteomics methods for quantitative experiments. However, most DIA methods require collecting exhaustive, sample-specific spectrum libraries with data dependent acquisition (DDA) to detect and quantify peptides. In addition to working with non-human samples, studies of splice junctions, sequence variants, or simply working with small sample yields can make developing DDA-based spectrum libraries impractical. Here we illustrate how to acquire, queue, and validate DIA data without spectrum libraries, and provide a workflow to efficiently generate DIA-only chromatogram libraries using gas-phase fractionation (GPF). We present best-practice methods for collecting DIA data using Orbitrap-based instruments, and develop an understanding for why DIA using an Orbitrap mass spectrometer should be approached differently than when using time-of-flight instruments. Finally, we discuss several methods for analyzing DIA data without libraries.




b

HIGD2A is required for assembly of the COX3 module of human mitochondrial complex IV [Research]

Assembly factors play a critical role in the biogenesis of mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes I-IV where they assist in the membrane insertion of subunits, attachment of co-factors, and stabilization of assembly intermediates. The major fraction of complexes I, III and IV are present together in large molecular structures known as respiratory chain supercomplexes. A number of assembly factors have been proposed as required for supercomplex assembly, including the hypoxia inducible gene 1 domain family member HIGD2A. Using gene-edited human cell lines and extensive steady state, translation and affinity enrichment proteomics techniques we show that loss of HIGD2A leads to defects in the de novo biogenesis of mtDNA-encoded COX3, subsequent accumulation of complex IV intermediates and turnover of COX3 partner proteins. Deletion of HIGD2A also leads to defective complex IV activity. The impact of HIGD2A loss on complex IV was not altered by growth under hypoxic conditions, consistent with its role being in basal complex IV assembly. While in the absence of HIGD2A we show that mitochondria do contain an altered supercomplex assembly, we demonstrate it to harbor a crippled complex IV lacking COX3. Our results redefine HIGD2A as a classical assembly factor required for building the COX3 module of complex IV.




b

Robust summarization and inference in proteome-wide label-free quantification [Research]

Label-Free Quantitative mass spectrometry based workflows for differential expression (DE) analysis of proteins impose important challenges on the data analysis due to peptide-specific effects and context dependent missingness of peptide intensities. Peptide-based workflows, like MSqRob, test for DE directly from peptide intensities and outperform summarization methods which first aggregate MS1 peptide intensities to protein intensities before DE analysis. However, these methods are computationally expensive, often hard to understand for the non-specialised end-user, and do not provide protein summaries, which are important for visualisation or downstream processing. In this work, we therefore evaluate state-of-the-art summarization strategies using a benchmark spike-in dataset and discuss why and when these fail compared to the state-of-the-art peptide based model, MSqRob. Based on this evaluation, we propose a novel summarization strategy, MSqRobSum, which estimates MSqRob’s model parameters in a two-stage procedure circumventing the drawbacks of peptide-based workflows. MSqRobSum maintains MSqRob’s superior performance, while providing useful protein expression summaries for plotting and downstream analysis. Summarising peptide to protein intensities considerably reduces the computational complexity, the memory footprint and the model complexity, and makes it easier to disseminate DE inferred on protein summaries. Moreover, MSqRobSum provides a highly modular analysis framework, which provides researchers with full flexibility to develop data analysis workflows tailored towards their specific applications.




b

Flow-induced reorganization of laminin-integrin networks within the endothelial basement membrane uncovered by proteomics [Research]

The vessel wall is continuously exposed to hemodynamic forces generated by blood flow. Endothelial mechanosensors perceive and translate mechanical signals via cellular signaling pathways into biological processes that control endothelial development, phenotype and function. To assess the hemodynamic effects on the endothelium on a system-wide level, we applied a quantitative mass spectrometry approach combined with cell surface chemical footprinting. SILAC-labeled endothelial cells were subjected to flow-induced shear stress for 0, 24 or 48 hours, followed by chemical labeling of surface proteins using a non-membrane permeable biotin label, and analysis of the whole proteome and the cell surface proteome by LC-MS/MS analysis. These studies revealed that of the >5000 quantified proteins 104 were altered, which were highly enriched for extracellular matrix proteins and proteins involved in cell-matrix adhesion. Cell surface proteomics indicated that LAMA4 was proteolytically processed upon flow-exposure, which corresponded to the decreased LAMA4 mass observed on immunoblot. Immunofluorescence microscopy studies highlighted that the endothelial basement membrane was drastically remodeled upon flow exposure. We observed a network-like pattern of LAMA4 and LAMA5, which corresponded to the localization of laminin-adhesion molecules ITGA6 and ITGB4. Furthermore, the adaptation to flow-exposure did not affect the inflammatory response to tumor necrosis factor α, indicating that inflammation and flow trigger fundamentally distinct endothelial signaling pathways with limited reciprocity and synergy. Taken together, this study uncovers the blood flow-induced remodeling of the basement membrane and stresses the importance of the subendothelial basement membrane in vascular homeostasis.




b

Peptide-based interaction proteomics [Review]

Protein-protein interactions are often mediated by short linear motifs (SLiMs) that are located in intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) of proteins. Interactions mediated by SLiMs are notoriously difficult to study, and many functionally relevant interactions likely remain to be uncovered. Recently, pull-downs with synthetic peptides in combination with quantitative mass spectrometry emerged as a powerful screening approach to study protein-protein interactions mediated by SLiMs. Specifically, arrays of synthetic peptides immobilized on cellulose membranes provide a scalable means to identify the interaction partners of many peptides in parallel. In this minireview we briefly highlight the relevance of SLiMs for protein-protein interactions, outline existing screening technologies, discuss unique advantages of peptide-based interaction screens and provide practical suggestions for setting up such peptide-based screens.




b

The DNA sensor cGAS is decorated by acetylation and phosphorylation modifications in the context of immune signaling [Research]

The cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS) protein is a pattern-recognition receptor of the mammalian innate immune system that is recognized as a main cytosolic sensor of pathogenic or damaged DNA. cGAS DNA binding initiates catalytic production of the second messenger, cyclic GMP-AMP, which activates the STING-TBK1-IRF3 signaling axis to induce cytokine expression. Post-translational modification (PTM) has started to be recognized as a critical component of cGAS regulation, yet the extent of these modifications remains unclear. Here, we report the identification and functional analysis of cGAS phosphorylations and acetylations in several cell types under basal and immune-stimulated conditions. cGAS was enriched by immunoaffinity purification from human primary fibroblasts prior to and after infection with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), as well as from immune-stimulated STING-HEK293T cells. Six phosphorylations and eight acetylations were detected, of which eight PTMs were not previously documented. PTMs were validated by parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) mass spectrometry in fibroblasts, HEK293T cells, and THP-1 macrophage-like cells. Primary sequence and structural analysis of cGAS highlighted a subset of PTM sites with elevated surface accessibility and high evolutionary sequence conservation. To assess the functional relevance of each PTM, we generated a series of single-point cGAS mutations. Stable cell lines were constructed to express cGAS with amino acid substitutions that prevented phosphorylation (Ser-to-Ala) and acetylation (Lys-to-Arg) or that mimicked the modification state (Ser-to-Asp and Lys-to-Gln). cGAS-dependent apoptotic and immune signaling activities were then assessed for each mutation. Our results show that acetyl-mimic mutations at Lys384 and Lys414 inhibit the ability of cGAS to induce apoptosis. In contrast, the Lys198 acetyl-mimic mutation increased cGAS-dependent interferon signaling when compared to the unmodified charge-mimic. Moreover, targeted PRM quantification showed that Lys198 acetylation is decreased upon infections with two herpesviruses—HSV-1 and human cytomegalovirus (HCMV), highlighting this residue as a regulatory point during virus infection.




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Immunopeptidomic analysis reveals that deamidated HLA-bound peptides arise predominantly from deglycosylated precursors [Technological Innovation and Resources]

The presentation of post-translationally modified (PTM) peptides by cell surface HLA molecules has the potential to increase the diversity of targets for surveilling T cells. Whilst immunopeptidomics studies routinely identify thousands of HLA-bound peptides from cell lines and tissue samples, in-depth analyses of the proportion and nature of peptides bearing one or more PTMs remains challenging. Here we have analyzed HLA-bound peptides from a variety of allotypes and assessed the distribution of mass spectrometry-detected PTMs, finding deamidation of asparagine or glutamine to be highly prevalent. Given that asparagine deamidation may arise either spontaneously or through enzymatic reaction, we assessed allele-specific and global motifs flanking the modified residues. Notably, we found that the N-linked glycosylation motif NX(S/T) was highly abundant across asparagine-deamidated HLA-bound peptides. This finding, demonstrated previously for a handful of deamidated T cell epitopes, implicates a more global role for the retrograde transport of nascently N-glycosylated polypeptides from the ER and their subsequent degradation within the cytosol to form HLA-ligand precursors. Chemical inhibition of Peptide:N-Glycanase (PNGase), the endoglycosidase responsible for the removal of glycans from misfolded and retrotranslocated glycoproteins, greatly reduced presentation of this subset of deamidated HLA-bound peptides. Importantly, there was no impact of PNGase inhibition on peptides not containing a consensus NX(S/T) motif. This indicates that a large proportion of HLA-I bound asparagine deamidated peptides are generated from formerly glycosylated proteins that have undergone deglycosylation via the ER-associated protein degradation (ERAD) pathway. The information herein will help train deamidation prediction models for HLA-peptide repertoires and aid in the design of novel T cell therapeutic targets derived from glycoprotein antigens.




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Proteomics of Campylobacter jejuni growth in deoxycholate reveals Cj0025c as a cystine transport protein required for wild-type human infection phenotypes [Research]

Campylobacter jejuni is a major cause of food-borne gastroenteritis. Proteomics by label-based two-dimensional liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) identified proteins associated with growth in 0.1% sodium deoxycholate (DOC, a component of gut bile salts), and system-wide validation was performed by data-independent acquisition (DIA-SWATH-MS). LC-MS/MS quantified 1326 proteins (~82% of the predicted C. jejuni proteome), of which 1104 were validated in additional biological replicates by DIA-SWATH-MS. DOC resulted in a profound proteome shift with 512 proteins showing significantly altered abundance. Induced proteins were associated with flagellar motility and antibiotic resistance; and these correlated with increased DOC motility and resistance to polymyxin B and ciprofloxacin. DOC also increased human Caco-2 cell adherence and invasion. Abundances of proteins involved in nutrient transport were altered by DOC and aligned with intracellular changes to their respective carbon sources. DOC increased intracellular levels of sulfur-containing amino acids (cysteine and methionine) and the dipeptide cystine (Cys-Cys), which also correlated with reduced resistance to oxidative stress. A DOC induced transport protein was Cj0025c, which has sequence similarity to bacterial Cys-Cys transporters. Deletion of cj0025c (cj0025c) resulted in proteome changes consistent with sulfur starvation, as well as attenuated invasion, reduced motility, atypical morphology, increased antimicrobial susceptibility and poor biofilm formation. Targeted metabolomics showed cj0025c was capable of utilizing known C. jejuni amino and organic acid substrates commensurate with wild-type. Medium Cys-Cys levels however, were maintained in cj0025c relative to wild-type. A toxic Cys-Cys mimic (selenocystine) inhibited wild-type growth, but not cj0025c. Provision of an alternate sulfur source (2 mM thiosulfate) restored cj0025c motility. Our data confirm that Cj0025c is a Cys-Cys transporter that we have named TcyP consistent with the nomenclature of homologous proteins in other species.




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Iraq Tribunal: US Pulling Out

1 May 2008 , Number 3

Rowdy sessions of the Iraq High Tribunal attracted sensational daily news coverage while Saddam Hussein was being tried. However, following his grim execution in December 2006, coverage all but evaporated. The foreign press and most western monitors packed their bags and left, and television reporting in Iraq dwindled. Now even the United States Department of Justice, which initially provided key financial and political support, is quietly withdrawing its advisers. So what is happening at the Tribunal and why are the Americans pulling out?

Sonya Sceats

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme




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Lebanon: Futile Victory

1 June 2008 , Number 3

For the third time in less than two years, Beirut has been turned into a battleground, with Hizbollah and the opposition taking over the city. The government and its allies did not engage militarily, managing to avoid civil war and becoming a regional battlefield. The Arab League is now trying to sort things out, highlighting the regional and international dimensions.

Nadim Shehadi

Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme




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Calculations for an Air Attack on Iran: Bombs Away?

1 March 2007 , Number 1

The Iranian nuclear site at Natanz is already one of the most protected places on earth, and the apparently never-ending diplomatic minuet over Iran’s nuclear activities may be no more than Tehran stringing out negotiations until its nuclear protection programme is complete.

Andrew Brookes

Former Royal Air Force bomber pilot

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An Iranian man carries a placard in support of nuclear technology during a rally to mark the 28th anniversary of the Islamic revolution




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Nigerian Elections: Big Men and Ballot Boxes

1 March 2007 , Number 6

The minister paused, leaned forward and fiddled with his cufflinks, ‘It wasn’t about whether the election was rigged or not,’ he said. ‘The truth is, everybody rigged it. We just rigged it better than them.’ Does the next Nigerian presidential election in April promise anything different?

Sola Tayo

Journalist, HARDtalk, BBC News

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Supporters of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party wave banners and posters




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Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Terrorism: Tomorrow's Threat

1 March 2007 , Number 11

In early November, the retiring head of Britain’s Security Service MI5, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, warned that the danger of a terror attack was ‘serious’ and ‘growing’, with as many as thirty plots underway. Traditional terrorism of the sort practised by the Irish Republican Army has given way to the possibility, if not the expectation, that groups such as Al Qaeda might make use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons and materials in an attack in Britain. So what are the dangers?

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Syrian Special Forces in gas masks, Saudi Arabia 1990




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Book Review: Corruption: Led into Temptation

1 May 2007 , Number 8

Corruption and Misuse of Public Office,
Colin Nicholls Qc, Tim Daniel, Martin Polaine and John Hatchard, Oxford University Press.

David Bentley

Associate Fellow, International Law, Chatham House




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Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Transitional Justice for the Victims of ISIS in Syria

28 April 2020

This paper aims to assist the region’s local authorities, and their key foreign backers, in understanding how transitional justice can provide alternative avenues for holding local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities.

Haid Haid

Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

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A fighter with the Syrian Democratic Forces monitors prisoners accused of being affiliated with ISIS, at a prison in the northeastern Syrian city of Hassakeh on 25 October 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • Following the territorial defeat of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in the region is now grappling with the task of quickly dealing with thousands of the group’s detained members while bringing justice to their victims. To that end, local authorities are focusing on the use of counterterrorism laws and courts to charge captured ISIS members and determine their guilt accordingly.
  • The piecemeal approach to justice is deeply flawed, and raises particular concerns about due process. No precise instruments exist to determine the personal responsibility of ISIS individuals for specific crimes, or for their role in war crimes committed by the group. In any event, the scale of the crimes and the number of victims – as well as severe shortages of resources and workers – make dispensation of justice extremely difficult through the traditional legal system.
  • Not all detained ISIS members receive prison sentences. Individuals who did not hold senior roles in the group’s apparatus and are not accused of ‘major’ crimes (in practice, largely defined as fighting for ISIS and murder) are being released under limited reconciliation deals with tribal leaders. But the involvement of local community leaders in those efforts is not enough to ensure positive results. Many victims are upset at seeing ISIS members walk free without even admitting their guilt publicly or apologizing for the pain they caused.
  • To overcome the limitations of the current, counterterrorism-focused framework, a ‘transitional justice’ approach could provide judicial and non-judicial instruments to establish accountability for ISIS crimes and reduce community resistance to the reintegration of group members. A combination of non-judicial mechanisms such as truth commissions, missing persons’ committees, and reparations and victim-healing programmes could play a vital role in providing ISIS victims with a sense of justice while contributing to peacebuilding and stability.
  • Ignoring the urgency of developing a long-term plan to serve justice and contribute to community healing will almost certainly allow ISIS to continue to prevent the recovery and development of northeastern Syria. This, in turn, risks undermining the stability of the country and the region at large.




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Towards a Low-Carbon Future: China and the European Union

1 October 2007 , Number 7

Chinese goods seem to flood western markets: computers, light bulbs, sweaters, T-shirts and bras. The instinct is to try to protect home producers. A better plan would be to work with Beijing on producing products for the next industrial revolution – the creation of a low-carbon economy. But that would take real vision and political courage.

Bernice Lee OBE

Research Director; Executive Director, Hoffmann Centre for Sustainable Resource Economy

Nick Mabey

Founding director and Chief Executive, E3G




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Burma: On the Brink of Implosion

1 November 2007 , Number 4

The world’s most populous democracy and its new economic engine are both busy modifying positions on Burma, their much smaller but troublesome neighbour. India and China have growing economic interests there, yet seem to have come to very different conclusions about how to protect them.

Dr Gareth Price

Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme

Professor Kerry Brown

Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme




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Renewable Energy: Generating Money

1 November 2007 , Number 7

City types are waking up to wind, waves and the sun and their potential to make energy – and money. This is just as new energy policies for Europe emerge with twenty percent targets for renewable energy and greenhouse gas cuts. Add to the mix climate change negotiations which will be back in Bali in December.

Kirsty Hamilton

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

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Solar panels lined up




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Social media and the visibility of horrific violence

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Constance Duncombe

Images are central to social media communication. Billions of images are shared across different social media platforms every day: photos, cartoons, GIFs and short video clips are exchanged by users, facilitating or framing discourse on participatory sites such as Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Many of these images depict events of extreme violence, which circulate uninhibited by the conventional constraints associated with traditional news media censorship. A question arises here as to how such images mobilize public and policy-making responses to atrocities. This article examines the political dynamics of violent social media images. I argue that the particular qualities of social media can play an important role in how the digital visibility of horrific violence influences policy-making as a response to such atrocities. There is an important connection between the properties of social media platforms that allow user images to reach a global audience in real time and the emotional responses that this level of circulation generates. In turn, the pressure created by events made globally visible through the circulation of violent images and the audience responses to those images puts governments in a position where they are forced to act, which has significant implications for policy-making.




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Soundscapes of war: the audio-visual performance of war by Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helle Malmvig

This article sets out to bring sound and music to the field of visual studies in International Relations. It argues that IR largely has approached the visual field as if it was without sound; neglecting how audial landscapes frame and direct our interpretation of moving imagery. Sound and music contribute to making imagery intelligible to us, we ‘hear the pictures’ often without noticing. The audial can for instance articulate a visual absence, or blast visual signs, bring out certain emotional stages or subjects’ inner life. Audial frames steer us in distinct directions, they can mute the cries of the wounded in war, or amplify the sounds of joy of soldiers shooting in the air. To bring the audial and the visual analytically and empirically together, the article therefore proposes four key analytical themes: 1) the audial–visual frame, 2) point of view/point of audition, 3) modes of audio-visual synchronization and 4) aesthetics moods. These are applied to a study of ‘war music videos’ in Iraq and Syria made and circulated by Shi'a militias currently fighting there. Such war music videos, it is suggested, are not just artefacts of popular culture, but have become integral parts of how warfare is practiced today, and one that is shared by soldiers in the US and Europe. War music videos are performing war, just as they shape how war is known by spectators and participants alike.




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Accountability, denial and the future-proofing of British torture

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Ruth Blakeley and Sam Raphael

When powerful liberal democratic states are found to be complicit in extreme violations of human rights, how do they respond and why do they respond as they do? Drawing on the example of the United Kingdom's complicity in torture since 9/11, this article demonstrates how reluctant the UK has been to permit a full reckoning with its torturous past. We demonstrate that successive UK governments engaged in various forms of denial, obfuscation and attempts to obstruct investigation and avoid accountability. The net effect of their responses has been to deny the victims redress, through adequate judicial processes, and to deny the public adequate state accountability. These responses are not simply aimed at shielding from prosecution the perpetrators and those who have oversight of them, nor preventing political embarrassment. The various forms of denial and obstruction are also designed to ensure that collusion can continue uninterrupted. A core concern of intelligence officials and ministers has been to prevent any process that would lead to a comprehensive prohibition on involvement in operations where torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment are a real possibility. The door remains wide open, and deliberately so, for British involvement in torture.




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Rethinking youth bulge theory in policy and scholarship: incorporating critical gender analysis

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Lesley Pruitt

For decades ‘youth bulge’ theory has dominated understandings of youth in mainstream International Relations. Youth bulge theory has also become part of some public media analyses, mainstream political rhetoric, and even officially enshrined in the foreign policy of some states. Through the ‘youth bulge’ lens, youth—especially males—have been presented as current or future perpetrators of violence. However, this article argues that the youth bulge thesis postulated in mainstream IR is based on flawed theoretical assumptions. In particular, supporters of youth bulge theory fail to engage with existing research by feminist IR scholars and thus take on a biological essentialist approach. This has led to theoretical and practical misunderstandings of the roles youth play in relation to conflict, peace and security. These partial and biased understandings have also resulted in less effective policy-making. In critically reflecting on the ‘youth bulge’ thesis, this article argues that applying gender analysis is crucial to understanding the involvement of young people in general—and young men in particular—in conflict. Doing so will contribute to advancing more accurate analysis in scholarship and policy-making.




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Power and diplomacy in the post-liberal cyberspace

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

André Barrinha and Thomas Renard

It is becoming widely accepted that we have transitioned, or are now transitioning, from an international liberal order to a different reality. Whether that reality is different solely in terms of power dynamics, or also in terms of values and institutions, is up for discussion. The growing body of literature on ‘post-liberalism’ is used as an entry-point for this article, which aims to explore how the post-liberal transition applies to cyberspace. We explore how power dynamics are evolving in cyberspace, as well as how established norms, values and institutions are contested. The article then looks at the emergence of cyber diplomacy as a consequence and response to the post-liberal transition. As it will be argued, if cyberspace was a creation of the liberal order, cyber-diplomacy is a post-liberal world practice. What role it plays in shaping a new order or building bridges between different political visions, and what it means for the future of cyberspace, will constitute key points of discussion.




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Let's talk about the interregnum: Gramsci and the crisis of the liberal world order

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Milan Babic

The liberal international order (LIO) is in crisis. Numerous publications, debates and events have time and again made it clear that we are in the midst of a grand transformation of world order. While most contributions focus on either what is slowly dying (the LIO) or what might come next (China, multipolarity, chaos?), there is less analytical engagement with what lies in between those two phases of world order. Under the assumption that this period could last years or even decades, a set of analytical tools to understand this interregnum is urgently needed. This article proposes an analytical framework that builds on Gramscian concepts of crisis that will help us understand the current crisis of the LIO in a more systematic way. It addresses a gap in the literature on changing world order by elaborating three Gramsci-inspired crisis characteristics—processuality, organicity and morbidity—that sketch the current crisis landscape in a systematic way. Building on this framework, the article suggests different empirical entry points to the study of the crisis of the LIO and calls for a research agenda that takes this crisis seriously as a distinct period of changing world orders.




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China and Russia in R2P debates at the UN Security Council

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Zheng Chen and Hang Yin

While China and Russia's general policies towards the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) are similar, the two reveal nuanced differences in addressing specific emergencies. Both express support for the first two pillars of R2P while resisting coercive intervention under its aegis, as they share anxieties of domestic political security and concerns about their international image. Nonetheless, addressing cases like the Syrian crisis, Russian statements are more assertive and even aggressive while Chinese ones are usually vague and reactive. This article highlights the two states’ different tones through computer-assisted text analyses. It argues that diplomatic styles reflect Russian and Chinese perceptions of their own place in the evolving international order. Experiences in past decades create divergent reference points and status prospects for them, which leads to their different strategies in signalling Great Power status. As Beijing is optimistic about its status-rising prospects, it exercises more self-restraint in order to avoid external containments and is reluctant to act as an independent ‘spoiler’. Meanwhile, Moscow interprets its Great Power status more from a frame of ‘loss’ and therefore is inclined to adopt a sterner approach to signal its status. Although their policies complement each other on many occasions, there is nothing akin to a Sino–Russian ‘bloc’.




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Zelenskyy Finds That There Are No Easy Solutions in Donbas

23 October 2019

Duncan Allan

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Leo Litra

Senior Research Fellow, New Europe Center
The president has attempted to use the so-called Steinmeier Formula to find a compromise on holding elections in the east of Ukraine. But he has run into a stark reality: Moscow and Kyiv’s interests remain irreconcilable.

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A banner reading 'No capitulation!' is unfurled above the entrance to the city hall in Kyiv as part of protests against implementation of the so-called Steinmeier Formula. Photo: Getty Images.

In 2016, the then-German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, suggested a way around the impasse in east Ukraine.

He proposed that elections in the areas held by Russian-backed insurgents – the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (DNR) and the ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ (LNR) –   could be held under Ukrainian legislation, with Kyiv adopting a temporary law on ‘special status’, the main disagreement between Russia and Ukraine in the Minsk Agreements. This law would become permanent once the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) had declared that elections correspond with OSCE standards.

The reaction in Ukraine was strongly negative. The so-called Steinmeier Formula contradicted Kyiv’s position that elections in the occupied Donbas should only go ahead in a secure environment – requiring the prior withdrawal of Russian forces and the return of the eastern border to Ukraine’s control. It also did not address the differing views of ‘special status’; Russia demands a much greater devolution of constitutional powers to the DNR and LNR regimes than Ukraine will grant.

But on 1 October, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the new Ukrainian president, announced that he was signing up to the Steinmeier Formula. He also announced a conditional withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from two frontline areas in the east.

Quick reversal

During the 2019 presidential election campaign, Zelenskyy repeatedly promised that, if elected, he would re-energize efforts to end the war. This appealed to many Ukrainians, who understandably want the conflict over, although Zelenskyy’s eventual electoral victory was largely won on domestic issues.

But his initiative quickly ran into two problems.

First, following a major prisoner swap in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to judge that Zelenskyy was in a hurry to deliver his election promises and was acting without consulting France and Germany. Russia had earlier demanded that Ukraine formally agree to elections in the Donbas as the precondition for a summit of the ‘Normandy’ powers (the diplomatic format comprising leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, which has not met since 2016).

Moreover, the US, which is not part of the ‘Normandy’ group, has seemed disengaged because of domestic controversies. Concluding that Zelenskyy was vulnerable, the Kremlin welcomed his announcement about the Steinmeier Formula but declined to assent to a summit, hoping to extract further concessions.

Second, Zelenskyy’s action triggered protests in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Critics feared that he intended to make unilateral concessions over ‘special status’. Though he tried to assure Ukrainians that ‘there won't be any elections there if the [Russian] troops are still there’, concerns were fuelled by what many saw as his lack of openness about what the Steinmeier Formula really meant. Ukrainian public opinion wants an end to the war, but apparently not at any price.

Zelenskyy duly rowed back. During a marathon 14-hour press conference on 10 October, he emphasized that he would not surrender Ukraine’s vital interests. He also acknowledged that he had been insufficiently open with the Ukrainian public. For the time being at least, he seems to have been given pause.

A situation resistant to compromise

Instead, Zelenskyy may now attempt to ‘freeze’ the conflict by ending active operations. This is not Ukraine’s favoured outcome but could be the most realistic one in current conditions.  

Russia still calculates that time is on its side. It believes that Western support for Ukraine is lukewarm and that Kyiv will eventually have to give it what it wants. Russia clearly felt no pressure to respond positively to Zelenskyy’s overture, which it probably read as a weakness to be exploited.    

For these reasons, Zelenskyy now appears less optimistic that rapid progress to end the war is possible. A new summit of the ‘Normandy’ powers may happen but looks unlikely in the near future. This may act as an incentive for further bilateral negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, such as those which delivered the prisoner swap. However, a diplomatic process managed by Zelenskyy and Putin alone risks reducing Ukraine’s leverage. 

Finally, the main obstacles to implementation of the Minsk Agreements – radically different views of elections in, and ‘special status’ for, the DNR and LNR – remain. The Kremlin’s versions of both would gravely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty; Kyiv’s would facilitate the re-establishment of its control over the east. It is hard to see how this gap can be bridged.

Tellingly, the Steinmeier Formula offers no answer to this conundrum. Some conflicts, it seems, are resistant to diplomatic compromises that aim to satisfy everyone equally.