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Webinar: European Democracy in the Last 100 Years: Economic Crises and Political Upheaval

Members Event Webinar

6 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Pepijn Bergsen, Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

Dr Sheri Berman, Professor of Political Science, Barnard College

Chair: Hans Kundnani, Senior Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

 

In the last 100 years, global economic crises from the Great Depression of the 1930s to the 2008 financial crash have contributed to significant political changes in Europe, often leading to a rise in popularity for extremist parties and politics. As Europe contends with a perceived crisis of democracy - now compounded by the varied responses to the coronavirus outbreak - how should we understand the relationship between externally-driven economic crises, political upheaval and democracy?

The panellists will consider the parallels between the political responses to some of the greatest economic crises Europe has experienced in the last century. Given that economic crises often transcend borders, why does political disruption vary between democracies? What can history tell us about the potential political impact of the unfolding COVID-19-related economic crisis? And will the unprecedented financial interventions by governments across Europe fundamentally change the expectations citizens have of the role government should play in their lives?

This event is based on a recent article in The World Today by Hans Kundnani and Pepijn Bergsen who are both researchers in Chatham House's Europe Programme. 'Crawling from the Wreckage' is the first in a series of articles that look at key themes in European political discourse from the last century. You can read the article here

This event is open to Chatham House Members. Not a member? Find out more.




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Coronavirus: Could a People’s Bailout Help?

7 May 2020

Jim O'Neill

Chair, Chatham House

Lyndsey Jefferson

Digital Editor, Communications and Publishing Department
The coronavirus crisis has resulted in an unprecedented economic downturn. Conventional quantitative easing measures used after the 2008 financial crisis will not be enough this time.

2020-05-06-Coronavirus-Food-Bank-NYC.jpg

Local residents line up outside a food pantry during the COVID-19 pandemic on 23 April 2020 in Brooklyn, New York. Due to increased levels of unemployment, the lines at the daily food pantry have been getting longer. Photo: Getty Images.

What is quantitative easing? How was it used after the 2008 financial crisis?

Quantitative easing (QE) has been in existence since the Japanese central bank introduced it at the turn of the millennium. The simplest way to think about it is this: when interest rates can't go down anymore and play their normal role of stimulating growth, central banks try to expand the money supply. So, they're expanding the quantitative amount of money they put into the system. 

Of course, after 2008 because of the scale of the financial and economic collapse, many Western countries resorted to QE. Some have never gotten rid of it. Others have started to, but as a result of this crisis, have gone straight back to that playbook.

33 million Americans have now filed for unemployment and one in five American workers have lost their jobs due to COVID-19. These are levels not seen since the Great Depression. You recently called for G20 countries to provide income support for all citizens. Why is this so urgent to implement now?

It is incredible to reflect back on the short time since I published that piece. I entitled it the need for a so-called people's QE, and in some ways a number of European countries, including the UK, have executed some aspects of what I was suggesting. 

The United States has not, even though the absolute amounts of money the US authorities have put through their fiscal system to try and support the economy is actually bigger as a percentage of GDP than many in Europe. 

What they haven't done is support ongoing employment through various schemes that many European countries have done, of which the UK has, to some degree, been one of the most ambitious.

That’s partly why you see such enormous filing for unemployment claims in the US. There’s no direct support to encourage employers to keep their employees on, in complete contrast to what you see in many Scandinavian countries who were the first to do it in Europe, and something the UK has since done. 

On a practical level, what might a smart people’s QE look like? 

We are living in an extraordinary time. Like many others in my generation, it’s nothing that any of us have gone through. Perhaps economically, the only parallel one can find is from the 1920s and 1930s.

It became obvious to me in early March that governments are going to have to essentially force as many of us as possible, if we weren't doing absolutely crucial necessities, to stop working or to work from home. It was pretty obvious that the consequences could be horrific. 

So, the idea of a people's QE that I suggested then, some would have regarded as quite audacious. The most dramatic thing that could be done was, to put it simply, governments effectively pay for every business and every employee to have a two month paid holiday. Obviously, this would cost a very large amount of money for governments, but it would be the least disruptive way of getting us all to stay home.

And when the time is right to start letting us get back to anything vaguely like normality, there wouldn't be as much permanent disruption. I think about six weeks have passed since I wrote that piece. Actually, given the policies many governments have announced, I'm not sure undertaking the audacity in generosity of what I suggested would have cost any more. Over the long term, it might have actually turned out to be less. 

Of course, there are ethics issues around whether the system could be gamed or not, amongst other issues. But six weeks later, I still believe that would have been the smartest thing to do. It certainly would have been much better than trying to encourage many businesses, particularly smaller ones, to take out loans.

A couple of countries got close to what I was suggesting – Germany and Switzerland were very quick to give 100% government guarantees to business, as well as generous wage support systems. But a number of other countries haven't, like the US, even though they wrote a $1200 check for each citizen. 

Should a people’s QE involve the purchase and write off of consumer debt and student debt by a central bank? 

I think these things might have to be considered. I remember being on a conference call to Chatham House members where we discussed what would be the likely economic consequences and what policymakers should do. One person on the call was talking about quite conventional forms of policy just through various forms of standard QE. 

During the Q&A, someone asked whether we thought the US Federal Reserve might end up buying equities. And I said, well, why not? Eventually, it might come to that. 

Actually, before that discussion was over, the Fed coincidentally announced they were going to buy high-yield corporate bonds, or very risky company debt. This is something that would have been unheard of even by the playbook of 2008. 

So, I don't think ideas like a kind of provision to help student debtors is entirely crazy. These are things that our policymakers are going to have to think about as we go forward in the challenging and unpredictable days and weeks ahead. 

Poorer countries like El Salvador have gone as far as cancelling rent and major utility bills for its citizens. Do you think countries like the US and UK have gone far enough to help people during the crisis?

Going one step further than a people’s QE and postponing major payments is a pretty interesting concept. I think in reality, it would be very disruptive to the medium to long-term mechanism of our societies. It could be very, very complicated. 

But, of course, some parts of the G20 nations, including the UK, have moved significantly in these areas as it relates to rent payments or mortgage payments. There have been significant mortgage holidays being introduced for many sectors of our community. I think the British government has been quite thoughtful about it without doing the whole hog of potentially getting rid of our transaction system for two months or beyond.

You know, this may well be something that has to be considered if, God forbid, there is a second peak of the virus. If countries come out of a lockdown and all that results in is a dramatic rise in infections and then death again, we're going to end up right back where we are. Policymakers may have to implement more generous versions of what we've done already, despite what the long term debt consequences could be.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act in the US has been criticized as a corporate bailout while offering little to the American people. It was recently reported that hedge fund managers are applying for bailouts as ‘small businesses.’ Do you think more oversight is needed in how the stimulus funds are allocated? 

The speed at which many countries have responded and introduced policies means that there's going to be some gaping holes which allow people to unfairly benefit from the system. And if indeed, that were to be the case, I cannot see why a hedge fund should benefit from government generosity.

A true hedge fund is supposed to be a form of investment manager that thrives in times of great volatility, and knows how to better navigate such financial markets than more conventional funds. So this shouldn’t be an environment where hedge funds seek the same kind of help as small businesses. That is certainly something the government should be very careful about.

Some economists argue that central banks are not independent as they finance fiscal spending through purchase of government bonds. Do the strong measures taken by central banks in response to the crisis undermine the argument for central bank independence? 

In my view, an effective central bank has to do whatever is necessary, including doing very unconventional things, when the society in which that central bank operates needs it. 

Most of the time, central banks are pretty boring places, but they really become crucial organizations when we go through times like the 1920s, 1930s, 2008, and of course, this current crisis. If they want to maintain their legitimacy, whatever the true parliamentary or congressional legal standing is, they have to do things quickly and as we've seen in this case, differently than the convention in order to do what our societies need. 

Somebody was asking me just last week whether the Fed buying high grade debt was legal or not. I think that’s a pretty irrelevant conversation because if it’s not legal now, it will be made legal tomorrow. So, I think central banks have to keep their legitimacy and they have to do what is necessary when the time requires it. In that sense, I think most central banks have handled this crisis so far pretty well.




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Parenteral lipids shape gut bile acid pools and microbiota profiles in the prevention of cholestasis in preterm pigs

Lee Call
Apr 29, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000652v1-jlr.RA120000652
Research Articles




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Sphingolipids distribution at mitochondria-associated membranes (MAM) upon induction of apoptosis.

Vincent Mignard
Apr 29, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000628v1-jlr.RA120000628
Research Articles




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Catalytic residues, substrate specificity, and role in carbon starvation of the 2-hydroxy FA dioxygenase Mpo1 in yeast

Keisuke Mori
Apr 29, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000803v1-jlr.RA120000803
Research Articles




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Metabolic regulation of the lysosomal cofactor bis(monoacylglycero)phosphate in mice

Gernot F. Grabner
Apr 29, 2020; 0:jlr.RA119000516v1-jlr.RA119000516
Research Articles




b

Lithium ion adduction enables UPLC-MS/MS-based analysis of multi-class 3-hydroxyl group-containing keto-steroids

Qiuyi Wang
Apr 1, 2020; 61:570-579
Methods




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Heritability of 596 lipid species and genetic correlation with cardiovascular traits in the Busselton Family Heart Study

Gemma Cadby
Apr 1, 2020; 61:537-545
Patient-Oriented and Epidemiological Research




b

HDL and pancreatic {beta} cells: a SMO-king gun?

Liam R. Brunham
Apr 1, 2020; 61:468-469
Commentary




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Phosphatidylinositol Metabolism, Phospholipases, Lipidomics, and Cancer:In Memoriam of Michael J. O. Wakelam (1955-2020)

Edward A Dennis
Apr 28, 2020; 0:jlr.T120000868v1-jlr.T120000868
Tribute




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HDL inhibits endoplasmic reticulum stress-induced apoptosis of pancreatic {beta}-cells in vitro by activation of Smoothened

Mustafa Yalcinkaya
Apr 1, 2020; 61:492-504
Research Articles




b

In Memoriam: Lina M. Obeid (1957-2019)

Ashley J. Snider
Apr 1, 2020; 61:466-467
Tribute




b

A simple method for sphingolipid analysis of tissues embedded in optimal cutting temperature compound

Timothy D Rohrbach
Apr 27, 2020; 0:jlr.D120000809v1-jlr.D120000809
Methods




b

Of mice and men: murine bile acids explain species differences in the regulation of bile acid and cholesterol metabolism

Sara Straniero
Apr 1, 2020; 61:480-491
Research Articles




b

Hexacosenoyl-CoA is the most abundant very long-chain acyl-CoA in ATP binding cassette transporter D1-deficient cells

Kotaro Hama
Apr 1, 2020; 61:523-536
Patient-Oriented and Epidemiological Research




b

Schnyder corneal dystrophy-associated UBIAD1 is defective in MK-4 synthesis and resists autophagy-mediated degradation

Dong-Jae Jun
May 1, 2020; 61:746-757
Research Articles




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ANGPTL4 inactivates lipoprotein lipase by catalyzing the irreversible unfolding of LPLs hydrolase domain

Kristian K Kristensen
Apr 23, 2020; 0:jlr.ILR120000780v1-jlr.ILR120000780
Images in Lipid Research




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Circulating oxidized LDL increased in patients with acute myocardial infarction is accompanied by heavily modified HDL.

Naoko Sawada
Apr 14, 2020; 0:jlr.RA119000312v1-jlr.RA119000312
Research Articles




b

The grease trap: uncovering the mechanism of the hydrophobic lid in Cutibacterium acnes lipase

Hyo Jung Kim
May 1, 2020; 61:722-733
Research Articles




b

An LC/MS/MS method for analyzing the steroid metabolome with high accuracy and from small serum samples

Teng-Fei Yuan
Apr 1, 2020; 61:580-586
Methods




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A novel NanoBiT-based assay monitors the interaction between lipoprotein lipase and GPIHBP1 in real time

Shwetha K. Shetty
Apr 1, 2020; 61:546-559
Methods




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The lncRNA Gm15622 stimulates SREBP-1c expression and hepatic lipid accumulation by sponging the miR-742-3p in mice

Minjuan Ma
Mar 30, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000664v1-jlr.RA120000664
Research Articles




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Serum non-esterified fatty acids have utility as dietary biomarkers of fat intake from fish, fish oil and dairy in women

Sandi M. Azab
Mar 31, 2020; 0:jlr.D120000630v1-jlr.D120000630
Methods




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LDL subclass lipidomics in atherogenic dyslipidemia:Effect of statin therapy on bioactive lipids and dense LDL

M John Chapman
Apr 15, 2020; 0:jlr.P119000543v1-jlr.P119000543
Patient-Oriented and Epidemiological Research




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Alcohol effects on hepatic lipid metabolism

Sookyoung Jeon
Apr 1, 2020; 61:470-479
Reviews




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Metabolic phospholipid labeling of intact bacteria enables a fluorescence assay that detects compromised outer membranes

Inga Nilsson
Mar 10, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000654v1-jlr.RA120000654
Research Articles




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The fatty acids from LPL-mediated processing of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins are taken up rapidly by cardiomyocytes

Haibo Jiang
Apr 2, 2020; 0:jlr.ILR120000783v1-jlr.ILR120000783
Images in Lipid Research




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Skin barrier lipid enzyme activity in Netherton patients is associated with protease activity and ceramide abnormalities

Jeroen van Smeden
Apr 7, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000639v1-jlr.RA120000639
Research Articles




b

Membrane domains beyond the reach of microscopy

Ilya Levental
May 1, 2020; 61:592-594
Commentary




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Commentary on SSO and other putative inhibitors of FA transport across membranes by CD36 disrupt intracellular metabolism, but do not affect fatty acid translocation

Henry J. Pownall
May 1, 2020; 61:595-597
Commentary




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Comparative profiling and comprehensive quantification of stratum corneum ceramides in humans and mice by LC-MS/MS

Momoko Kawana
Apr 7, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000671v1-jlr.RA120000671
Research Articles




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Characterization of the small molecule ARC39, a direct and specific inhibitor of acid sphingomyelinase in vitro

Eyad Naser
Mar 10, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000682v1-jlr.RA120000682
Research Articles




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Ebola virus matrix protein VP40 hijacks the host plasma membrane to form the virus envelope

Souad Amiar
Apr 15, 2020; 0:jlr.ILR120000753v1-jlr.ILR120000753
Images in Lipid Research




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The data must be accessible to all

Lila M. Gierasch
Apr 1, 2020; 61:465-465
Editorials




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Dispersed lipid droplets: an intermediate site for lipid transport and metabolism in primary human adipocytes.

Björn Morén
Apr 15, 2020; 0:jlr.ILR120000808v1-jlr.ILR120000808
Images in Lipid Research




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Accessibility of cholesterol at cell surfaces

Kristen A. Johnson
Apr 23, 2020; 0:jlr.ILR120000836v1-jlr.ILR120000836
Images in Lipid Research




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GPIHBP1, a partner protein for lipoprotein lipase, is expressed only in capillary endothelial cells

Xia Meng
May 1, 2020; 61:591-591
Images in Lipid Research




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Lipid-tuned Zinc Transport Activity of Human ZnT8 Protein Correlates with Risk for Type-2 Diabetes [Molecular Bases of Disease]

Zinc is a critical element for insulin storage in the secretory granules of pancreatic beta cells. The islet-specific zinc transporter ZnT8 mediates granular sequestration of zinc ions. A genetic variant of human ZnT8 arising from a single nonsynonymous nucleotide change contributes to increased susceptibility to type-2 diabetes (T2D), but it remains unclear how the high risk variant (Arg-325), which is also a higher frequency (>50%) allele, is correlated with zinc transport activity. Here, we compared the activity of Arg-325 with that of a low risk ZnT8 variant (Trp-325). The Arg-325 variant was found to be more active than the Trp-325 form following induced expression in HEK293 cells. We further examined the functional consequences of changing lipid conditions to mimic the impact of lipid remodeling on ZnT8 activity during insulin granule biogenesis. Purified ZnT8 variants in proteoliposomes exhibited more than 4-fold functional tunability by the anionic phospholipids, lysophosphatidylcholine and cholesterol. Over a broad range of permissive lipid compositions, the Arg-325 variant consistently exhibited accelerated zinc transport kinetics versus the Trp-form. In agreement with the human genetic finding that rare loss-of-function mutations in ZnT8 are associated with reduced T2D risk, our results suggested that the common high risk Arg-325 variant is hyperactive, and thus may be targeted for inhibition to reduce T2D risk in the general populations.




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UK Tech Weekly Podcast Episode Two - The Internet of Acronyms (IoA)MWC, FBI and ROI

In the second episode of the UK Tech Weekly Podcast host Matt Egan discusses the Mobile World Congress (MWC) with producer Chris Martin before he jets off to Barcelona, including what device launches we are expecting from the likes of LG, Sony and Samsung. Acting editor at Macworld.co.uk David Price chats about the row between Apple and the FBI over encryption (14:50). Finally Scott Carey from Techworld.com discusses challenger banks (25:00) what they are, what the technology looks like and why you should care.  


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UK Tech Weekly Podcast - Episode Three: The Internet of Sex Robots - Facebook likes, AI and Trump

In this week's UK Tech Weekly Podcast host Matt Egan is joined by PC Advisor staff writer Chris Minasians chats about Facebook's new like buttons, the team has contracted smartphone fever from the Mobile World Conference in Barcelona and finally, acting editor of Macworld UK David Price, discusses Donald Trump boycotting Apple.  


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UK Tech Weekly Podcast - Episode Six: The Internet of Board Games (IoBG) + The Budget & AlphaGo

In this week's UK Tech Weekly Podcast host Matt Egan is joined by first time podder Tamlin Magee (1:50), online editor at ComputerworldUK.com, to discuss the UK tech implications of this year's Budget, including rural broadband and driverless cars. Then Christina Mercer, assistant online editor at Techworld.com, chats AlphaGo (10:00) and board games following the AI's historic win over world Go champion Lee Sedol. Later, resident Virtual Reality (VR) enthusiast and PCAdvisor.co.uk staff writer Lewis Painter discussed "the big three" VR headset release dates, pricing and features from HTC, Sony Playstation and Oculus Rift (19:00). Finally, UKTW Podcast regular David Price, acting editor at Macworld.co.uk chats about Apple's big upcoming event (28:45).  


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UK Tech Weekly Podcast - Episode Seven: The Internet of Fruit (IoF) Apple, BlackBerry & Raspberry Pi

In this week's UK Tech Weekly Podcast host Matt Egan is joined by acting editor at Macworld.co.uk David Price to discuss this week's Apple event announcements, from the iPhone SE to the iPad Pro and iOS 9.3. Then first time podder and staff writer at Macworld.co.uk Henry Burrell wades in to discuss Facebook dropping its support for Blackberry and the future of the under-fire mobile phone maker (19:45). Finally, online editor at Techworld.com Scott Carey chats coding in schools following the BBC micro:bit news and how it differs from the Raspberry Pi (27:40).  


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Episode Eight: The Internet of Genocidal Chatbots (IoGC) Tay, Microsoft Build and Apple vs FBI

In this week's UK Tech Weekly Podcast host Matt Egan is joined by online editor at Techworld.com Scott Carey to discuss all of the news coming out of Microsoft's Build 2016 developer conference, before being joined by producer Chris to talk about the company's genocidal AI chatbot Tay's public meltdown (13:00). Then, acting editor at Macworld.co.uk David Price jumps in to discuss the apparent resolution to the Apple vs FBI fight (29:00).  


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Episode Nine - The Internet of Li-Fi in Dubai-Fi (IoLFiDF) Huawei, Whatsapp, Panama Papers and Li-Fi

This week host Matt Egan kicks things off by chatting to staff writer Lewis Painter about the (genuinely) impressive Huawei P9 phone release. Then, acting editor at Macworld.co.uk David Price jumps in to discuss Whatsapp encryption (12:30) and the Panama Papers. Finally, Christina Mercer, online editor at Techworld.com, introduces you to the wonderful world of Li-Fi (24:30).  


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Episode Ten - The Internet of Tacobots (IoTB): F8, chatbots, HTC 10 & Kindle Oasis

Producer Chris dives in this week to discuss the HTC 10 release, and why it's difficult to get excited about good mobile phones. Then Techworld.com editor Charlotte Jee chats Facebook chatbots and other F8 news (12:30). Finally, editor at Digitalartsonline.co.uk Neil Bennett jumps in to discuss the new Amazon e-reader (31:00) Kindle Oasis and why everyone is kicking off about the price.  


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Episode 11 - The Internet of Dating Apps (IoDA): Apple Macbook news, Google antitrust & dating apps

This week host Matt Egan is rejoined by Macworld.co.uk acting editor David Price to chat about Apple's latest Macbook announcements. Then online editor at ComputerworldUK Christina Mercer jumps in to give a break down of Google's fight with the EU over antitrust infringements (13:00). Finally, ex-dating app user Scott Carey, online editor at Techworld.com gives a state of the union on dating apps, from Tinder to Bumble to Happn, if they are good for society and which one is set to corner the market (27:00).  


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Episode 12 - The Internet of Voodoo Streaming Services (IoVSS) Apple & Facebook results, Nintendo NX

This week host Matt Egan is joined by regular podder David Price, acting editor of Macworld.co.uk, to discuss Apple's not so awesome results and stalling iPhone sales. Then online editor Scott Carey jumps in to discuss Facebook's far better results and how it has come to dominate the mobile advertising market (15:00) Finally, producer Chris comes out from behind the glass to discuss Nintendo's secretive NX console and having to wait for the new Zelda game (28:00).  


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Episode 13 - The Internet of Bitcoins (IoB) Vive VR, Bitcoin theories and Sky Q

On this week's UK Tech Weekly podcast host Matt Egan is joined by Macworld UK and PC Advisor Staff Writer Lewis Painter, who has spent the past week in virtual reality, and is beyond excited to tell us all about the amazing HTC Vive. Then regular podder David Price, acting editor of Macworld UK, brings us tales from the murky world of Bitcoin, and explains how the crypto-currency is bringing about new tech that may revolutionise the finance industry (16:30) Finally, producer Chris throws aside his mic stand to discuss Sky Q and the current options in media streaming and TV. (25:30).  


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Episode 15 - The Internet of ill Advised Man Buns (IoIAMB) Google I/O and terrible film adaptations

Host Matt Egan is joined by producer Chris to talk about the raft of announcements coming out of the Google I/O developer conference this week, including Android N, Google assistant and Allo. Techworld.com editor Charlotte Jee joins in to discuss driverless cars (17:00) following the Queen's speech this week. Finally, acting editor at Macworld.co.uk David Price talks about terrible film adaptations of video games, from Angry Birds to World of Warcraft (29:00). Don't forget to like, share and tell your friends!  


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Episode 16 - The internet of the Apple iBoards (IoAi) Pebble, death of Hoverboards and Twitter

This week host Matt Egan is joined by producer Chris to talk about the recent batch of new Pebble devices and the smartwatch market. Staff writer at PC Advisor Lewis Painter joins in to talk about the death of the hoverboard (13:00). Finally, regular podder David Price comes on to talk about Appl...oh Twitter, specifically changes to the character limit and the sad loss of the @ (24:00).  


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