OBJECTIVE

Sustained excess BMI increases the risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in autoantibody-positive relatives without diabetes of patients. We tested whether elevated BMI also accelerates the progression of islet autoimmunity before T1D diagnosis.

Kasia J. Lipska
Apr 1, 2017; 40:468-475
Emerging Science and Concepts for Management of Diabetes and Aging

As the American College of Dentists celebrates its 100th anniversary, its leaders are ready to continue their mission of advancing excellence, ethics, professionalism and leadership in dentistry.

The Howard University College of Dentistry treated 35 students from Washington’s Raymond Elementary School at a Feb. 7 Give Kids A Smile event.

OBJECTIVE

To examine trends in uninsured rates between 2012 and 2016 among low-income adults aged <65 years and to determine whether the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), which expanded Medicaid, impacted insurance coverage in the Diabetes Belt, a region across 15 southern and eastern states in which residents have high rates of diabetes.

I was recently invited to write a book chapter on nonmonogamy in LGBTQ+ relationships, and one of the things I wanted to do in it was compare the prevalence of both consensual nonmonogamy (polyamory, open relationships, swinging) and nonconsensual nonmonogamy (cheating/infidelity). Further, I wanted to look at whether rates of these practices were similar or different for LGBTQ+ persons compared to heterosexual persons. However, I found it surprisingly difficult to locate reliable data points. The problem I kept running into is that study after study conflated consensual nonmonogamy with nonconsensual nonmonogamy. In other words, researchers were putting all of these folks into the same category without attempting to distinguish whether they were permitted under the rules of the relationship or not.

"Xander joins his local am-dram group in order to make friends. He certainly doesn't expect to fall for the group's playboy star. Graeme is confident and easygoing. He believes in fun without commitment. However, all that changes when Xander gets under his skin" -- Pub;isher info.

Piracy -- History.

London : Macmillan, 1897.

London : Macmillan, 1886.

We present new excess risk bounds for general unbounded loss functions including log loss and squared loss, where the distribution of the losses may be heavy-tailed. The bounds hold for general estimators, but they are optimized when applied to $eta$-generalized Bayesian, MDL, and empirical risk minimization estimators. In the case of log loss, the bounds imply convergence rates for generalized Bayesian inference under misspecification in terms of a generalization of the Hellinger metric as long as the learning rate $eta$ is set correctly. For general loss functions, our bounds rely on two separate conditions: the $v$-GRIP (generalized reversed information projection) conditions, which control the lower tail of the excess loss; and the newly introduced witness condition, which controls the upper tail. The parameter $v$ in the $v$-GRIP conditions determines the achievable rate and is akin to the exponent in the Tsybakov margin condition and the Bernstein condition for bounded losses, which the $v$-GRIP conditions generalize; favorable $v$ in combination with small model complexity leads to $ ilde{O}(1/n)$ rates. The witness condition allows us to connect the excess risk to an 'annealed' version thereof, by which we generalize several previous results connecting Hellinger and Rényi divergence to KL divergence.

Adaptive importance samplers are adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate expectations with respect to some target distribution which extit{adapt} themselves to obtain better estimators over a sequence of iterations. Although it is straightforward to show that they have the same $mathcal{O}(1/sqrt{N})$ convergence rate as standard importance samplers, where $N$ is the number of Monte Carlo samples, the behaviour of adaptive importance samplers over the number of iterations has been left relatively unexplored. In this work, we investigate an adaptation strategy based on convex optimisation which leads to a class of adaptive importance samplers termed extit{optimised adaptive importance samplers} (OAIS). These samplers rely on the iterative minimisation of the $chi^2$-divergence between an exponential-family proposal and the target. The analysed algorithms are closely related to the class of adaptive importance samplers which minimise the variance of the weight function. We first prove non-asymptotic error bounds for the mean squared errors (MSEs) of these algorithms, which explicitly depend on the number of iterations and the number of samples together. The non-asymptotic bounds derived in this paper imply that when the target belongs to the exponential family, the $L_2$ errors of the optimised samplers converge to the optimal rate of $mathcal{O}(1/sqrt{N})$ and the rate of convergence in the number of iterations are explicitly provided. When the target does not belong to the exponential family, the rate of convergence is the same but the asymptotic $L_2$ error increases by a factor $sqrt{ ho^star} > 1$, where $ ho^star - 1$ is the minimum $chi^2$-divergence between the target and an exponential-family proposal.

Min Xu, Varun Jog, Po-Ling Loh.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 183--204.

Abstract:
Community identification in a network is an important problem in fields such as social science, neuroscience and genetics. Over the past decade, stochastic block models (SBMs) have emerged as a popular statistical framework for this problem. However, SBMs have an important limitation in that they are suited only for networks with unweighted edges; in various scientific applications, disregarding the edge weights may result in a loss of valuable information. We study a weighted generalization of the SBM, in which observations are collected in the form of a weighted adjacency matrix and the weight of each edge is generated independently from an unknown probability density determined by the community membership of its endpoints. We characterize the optimal rate of misclustering error of the weighted SBM in terms of the Renyi divergence of order 1/2 between the weight distributions of within-community and between-community edges, substantially generalizing existing results for unweighted SBMs. Furthermore, we present a computationally tractable algorithm based on discretization that achieves the optimal error rate. Our method is adaptive in the sense that the algorithm, without assuming knowledge of the weight densities, performs as well as the best algorithm that knows the weight densities.

Kai Tan, Lei Shi, Zhou Yu.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 64--85.

Abstract:
Sliced inverse regression (SIR) is an innovative and effective method for sufficient dimension reduction and data visualization. Recently, an impressive range of penalized SIR methods has been proposed to estimate the central subspace in a sparse fashion. Nonetheless, few of them considered the sparse sufficient dimension reduction from a decision-theoretic point of view. To address this issue, we in this paper establish the minimax rates of convergence for estimating the sparse SIR directions under various commonly used loss functions in the literature of sufficient dimension reduction. We also discover the possible trade-off between statistical guarantee and computational performance for sparse SIR. We finally propose an adaptive estimation scheme for sparse SIR which is computationally tractable and rate optimal. Numerical studies are carried out to confirm the theoretical properties of our proposed methods.

Kyoungjae Lee, Jaeyong Lee, Lizhen Lin.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 6, 3413--3437.

Abstract:
In this paper we study the high-dimensional sparse directed acyclic graph (DAG) models under the empirical sparse Cholesky prior. Among our results, strong model selection consistency or graph selection consistency is obtained under more general conditions than those in the existing literature. Compared to Cao, Khare and Ghosh [ Ann. Statist. (2019) 47 319–348], the required conditions are weakened in terms of the dimensionality, sparsity and lower bound of the nonzero elements in the Cholesky factor. Furthermore, our result does not require the irrepresentable condition, which is necessary for Lasso-type methods. We also derive the posterior convergence rates for precision matrices and Cholesky factors with respect to various matrix norms. The obtained posterior convergence rates are the fastest among those of the existing Bayesian approaches. In particular, we prove that our posterior convergence rates for Cholesky factors are the minimax or at least nearly minimax depending on the relative size of true sparseness for the entire dimension. The simulation study confirms that the proposed method outperforms the competing methods.

Qiyang Han, Jon A. Wellner.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 4, 2286--2319.

Abstract:
We study the performance of the least squares estimator (LSE) in a general nonparametric regression model, when the errors are independent of the covariates but may only have a $p$th moment ($pgeq1$). In such a heavy-tailed regression setting, we show that if the model satisfies a standard “entropy condition” with exponent $alphain(0,2)$, then the $L_{2}$ loss of the LSE converges at a rate [mathcal{O}_{mathbf{P}}igl(n^{-frac{1}{2+alpha}}vee n^{-frac{1}{2}+frac{1}{2p}}igr).] Such a rate cannot be improved under the entropy condition alone. This rate quantifies both some positive and negative aspects of the LSE in a heavy-tailed regression setting. On the positive side, as long as the errors have $pgeq1+2/alpha$ moments, the $L_{2}$ loss of the LSE converges at the same rate as if the errors are Gaussian. On the negative side, if $p<1+2/alpha$, there are (many) hard models at any entropy level $alpha$ for which the $L_{2}$ loss of the LSE converges at a strictly slower rate than other robust estimators. The validity of the above rate relies crucially on the independence of the covariates and the errors. In fact, the $L_{2}$ loss of the LSE can converge arbitrarily slowly when the independence fails. The key technical ingredient is a new multiplier inequality that gives sharp bounds for the “multiplier empirical process” associated with the LSE. We further give an application to the sparse linear regression model with heavy-tailed covariates and errors to demonstrate the scope of this new inequality.

Emanuele Dolera, Stefano Favaro.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 2, 1294--1322.

Abstract:
Given a sequence ${X_{n}}_{ngeq 1}$ of exchangeable Bernoulli random variables, the celebrated de Finetti representation theorem states that $frac{1}{n}sum_{i=1}^{n}X_{i}stackrel{a.s.}{longrightarrow }Y$ for a suitable random variable $Y:Omega ightarrow [0,1]$ satisfying $mathsf{P}[X_{1}=x_{1},dots ,X_{n}=x_{n}|Y]=Y^{sum_{i=1}^{n}x_{i}}(1-Y)^{n-sum_{i=1}^{n}x_{i}}$. In this paper, we study the rate of convergence in law of $frac{1}{n}sum_{i=1}^{n}X_{i}$ to $Y$ under the Kolmogorov distance. After showing that a rate of the type of $1/n^{alpha }$ can be obtained for any index $alpha in (0,1]$, we find a sufficient condition on the distribution of $Y$ for the achievement of the optimal rate of convergence, that is $1/n$. Besides extending and strengthening recent results under the weaker Wasserstein distance, our main result weakens the regularity hypotheses on $Y$ in the context of the Hausdorff moment problem.

Zhuang Ma, Xiaodong Li.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 432--470.

Abstract:
Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a fundamental statistical tool for exploring the correlation structure between two sets of random variables. In this paper, motivated by the recent success of applying CCA to learn low dimensional representations of high dimensional objects, we propose two losses based on the principal angles between the model spaces spanned by the sample canonical variates and their population correspondents, respectively. We further characterize the non-asymptotic error bounds for the estimation risks under the proposed error metrics, which reveal how the performance of sample CCA depends adaptively on key quantities including the dimensions, the sample size, the condition number of the covariance matrices and particularly the population canonical correlation coefficients. The optimality of our uniform upper bounds is also justified by lower-bound analysis based on stringent and localized parameter spaces. To the best of our knowledge, for the first time our paper separates $p_{1}$ and $p_{2}$ for the first order term in the upper bounds without assuming the residual correlations are zeros. More significantly, our paper derives $(1-lambda_{k}^{2})(1-lambda_{k+1}^{2})/(lambda_{k}-lambda_{k+1})^{2}$ for the first time in the non-asymptotic CCA estimation convergence rates, which is essential to understand the behavior of CCA when the leading canonical correlation coefficients are close to $1$.

Haolun Shi, Guosheng Yin.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 399--425.

Abstract:
Bayesian approaches to phase II clinical trial designs are usually based on the posterior distribution of the parameter of interest and calibration of certain threshold for decision making. If the posterior probability is computed and assessed in a sequential manner, the design may involve the problem of multiplicity, which, however, is often a neglected aspect in Bayesian trial designs. To effectively maintain the overall type I error rate, we propose solutions to the problem of multiplicity for Bayesian sequential designs and, in particular, the determination of the cutoff boundaries for the posterior probabilities. We present both theoretical and numerical methods for finding the optimal posterior probability boundaries with $alpha$ -spending functions that mimic those of the frequentist group sequential designs. The theoretical approach is based on the asymptotic properties of the posterior probability, which establishes a connection between the Bayesian trial design and the frequentist group sequential method. The numerical approach uses a sandwich-type searching algorithm, which immensely reduces the computational burden. We apply least-square fitting to find the $alpha$ -spending function closest to the target. We discuss the application of our method to single-arm and double-arm cases with binary and normal endpoints, respectively, and provide a real trial example for each case.

Successful modification of the bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) after two-step BAC engineering is confirmed in two separate polymerase chain reactions (PCRs). The first reaction (5' co-integrate PCR) uses a forward 5' co-integrate primer (a sequence located upstream of the 5' end of the A-box) and a reverse 3' primer on the vector (175PA+50AT) or within the reporter sequence or mutated region as appropriate. The second reaction (3' co-integrate PCR) uses a forward 5' primer on the recA gene (RecA1300S) and a reverse 3' co-integrate primer (a sequence located downstream from the 3' end of the B-box). Those colonies shown to be positive in PCR analysis are further tested for sensitivity to UV light. After the resolution, colonies that have lost the excised recombination vector including sacB and recA genes become UV light sensitive.

Visions 2020: Nydia Han and 6abc celebrates Asian Pacific American Heritage Month - 6abc  WPVI-TV

The European repo market has held up well amid the initial volatility created by the economic slowdown caused by COVID-19,...

The post European Repo Demonstrates Its Resilience appeared first on OpenMarkets.

The post SOLIDWORKS Certification Celebrates 400,000! appeared first on SOLIDWORKS Education Blog.

Daily data on exchange rates against the US dollar have been updated. This covers 81 economies with the earliest data starting in 1949.

Daily data on monetary policy rates have been updated. This covers 38 central banks with the earliest data starting in 1946.

Repair site iFixit has shared x-ray photographs of the new Magic Keyboard for iPad Pro, and they reveal an accessory more complicated than it might appear from the outside.

As per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc., Clearing House Risk Management staff approved the performance bond requirements for the following products listed in the advisory at the link below.

The rates will be effective after the close of business on 4/28/2020.

Click here for the full text of the advisory

20-178

As per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc., Clearing House Risk Management staff approved the performance bond requirements for the following products listed in the advisory at the link below.

The rates will be effective after the close of business on 05/01/2020.

Click here for the full text of the advisory

20-183

God gets all the glory for the great things He has done through OM the past 50 years. Everyone is looking forward to the next 50 in great anticipation.

We round up a busy fortnight of UEFA Grassroots Day activities in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

The California district rolled out a culturally-specific program to support black male students, and the program has led to positive outcomes for students who had an opportunity to participate.

A new evaluation of an Oakland, Calif., school district program designed to wrap black male students in a culturally rich and supportive environment is paying off.

To celebrate 15 years of Google Maps, the popular mapping program gets a redesign, a host of new features, and an installation in New York's Madison Square Park.

The California district rolled out a culturally-specific program to support black male students, and the program has led to positive outcomes for students who had an opportunity to participate.

Teachers coming from alternative programs leave the profession at higher rates than their traditionally certified peers, and that gap is growing, a study finds.

Cross-sectional imaging can reduce the negative appendectomy rate (NAR) in children being evaluated for suspected appendicitis; however, the ability of diagnostic imaging to decrease NAR may vary by age and gender.

Cross-sectional imaging leads to a significant reduction in NAR for children younger than 5 years and girls older than 10 years. For boys older than 5 years being evaluated for uncomplicated appendicitis, advanced imaging appears to have limited value. (Read the full article)

Despite recommendations and a universal immunization program, a recent survey reported suboptimal influenza vaccination coverage in children aged 6 to 23 months in Ontario. Little is known about predictors of coverage in young children to target immunization strategies.

Full influenza vaccination coverage in young children in Ontario is <10% and declining since the 2006–2007 season. Medically high-risk children including low birth weight infants are more likely to be immunized, but maternal and health services characteristics remain important. (Read the full article)

Known rates of nonsuicidal self-injury, hurting oneself without the intent to die, are between ~7% and 24% in samples of early adolescents and older adolescents, yet research has not reported rates for youth younger than 11 years old.

Children as young as 7 years old report engaging in nonsuicidal self-injury. There is a grade by gender interaction for nonsuicidal self-injury, such that ninth-grade girls report the greatest rates of engagement and do so by cutting themselves. (Read the full article)

Birth asphyxia, or failure to initiate or sustain spontaneous breathing at birth, contributes to ~27% to 30% of neonatal deaths in resource-limited countries, including Tanzania. Without change, these countries will fail to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 targets by 2015.

The Helping Babies Breathe program was implemented in 8 hospitals in Tanzania in 2009. It has been associated with a sustained 47% reduction in early neonatal mortality within 24 hours and a 24% reduction in fresh stillbirths after 2 years. (Read the full article)

Despite downward trends, the US teen birth rate remains among the highest of developed nations. Childhood maltreatment may place teens at higher risk, but inferences are weak given a lack of prospective study and control for alternative explanations.

Results from the first controlled, prospective study of nulliparous teenagers confirm that victims of maltreatment are more than twice as likely as their nonmaltreated peers to experience a teen childbirth after controlling for demographic confounds and other known risk factors. (Read the full article)

Infant and neonatal mortality rates in the United States decreased markedly during the twentieth century but have not decreased notably during recent years. There has been an increase in preterm and low birth weight births in recent years.

The lack of decrease in infant and neonatal mortality rates in recent years is due in large part to the increasing proportion of preterm and low birth weight infants, particularly infants <500 g. (Read the full article)

Child welfare data show declines in child physical abuse since the early 1990s, but analysis of national data from hospitalized children in the Kids’ Inpatient Database showed an increased incidence of serious physical abuse in children from 1997 to 2009.

We found no significant change in hospitalization rates for injury from abuse in young children and increases in injury severity using the National Inpatient Sample from 1997 to 2009. This data helps provide a more complete perspective of the problem. (Read the full article)

Obstacles to vaccine delivery, including poverty, reduced access to medical care, and incomplete understanding of vaccine safety and importance, result in suboptimal coverage rates in some populations, allowing for disease outbreaks. Multicomponent interventions are successful in increasing immunization coverage rates.

We show that collaboration with local resources, including the county health department and a large community-based organization, effectively increases immunization coverage rates in low-income, resource-poor children. (Read the full article)

Readmissions have been identified as a priority area for pediatric inpatient quality measurement nationally. However, it is unknown whether readmission rates vary meaningfully across hospitals and how many hospitals would be identified as high- or low-performers.

Only a few hospitals that care for children are high- or low-performers when their condition-specific revisit rates are compared with average rates across hospitals. This limits the usefulness of condition-specific readmission or revisit measures in pediatric quality measurement. (Read the full article)

Tonsillectomy is one of the most commonly performed surgeries in children and is one of the most cumulatively expensive conditions in pediatric hospital care. Little is known about how the quality of tonsillectomy care varies across hospitals.

In a large cohort of low-risk children undergoing same-day tonsillectomy, there was substantial variation in quality measures of process, dexamethasone and antibiotic use, and outcome, revisits to the hospital within the first 30 days after surgery. (Read the full article)

There is substantial variation in the medical care provided to pediatric patients across diverse clinical settings. This variation raises concerns about whether every patient is receiving optimal care and whether more standardized approaches around clinical decisions are needed.

We observed wide variation in admission rates for common pediatric conditions across US children’s hospitals. Our findings highlight the need for greater focus on the standardization of decisions regarding hospitalization of patients presenting to the emergency department. (Read the full article)

Cancer continues to be the leading disease-related cause of death among children and adolescents in the United States. More information is needed about recent trends.

This study provides recent, robust data supporting the increasing incidence of pediatric thyroid cancer and rising overall cancer rates among African American children and adolescents and is the first study to describe increasing rates of pediatric renal carcinoma. (Read the full article)

Germ cell tumors in children are heterogeneous and rare neoplasms that occur in various locations, such as gonads, the central nervous system, and the pelvis. The incidence rate has been increasing in some countries.

Population-based analyses of germ cell tumors in children are rare. This population-based study describes the incidence rates, trends, and survival of germ cell tumors in German children from 1987 to 2011. (Read the full article)