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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024


000
WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been 
improving.  The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt.  Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates 
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite 
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression.  This is 
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which 
shows a well-defined circulation.  The intensity is set to 30 kt 
based on the Dvorak estimates.
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of 
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later 
today.  A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression 
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until 
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, 
and possibly inland.  After that, the ridge is expected to break 
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak 
steering currents late Friday through the weekend.  This expected 
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the 
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions 
of Central America.  By early next week, ridging should become 
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which 
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the 
Yucatan Peninsula.  Very little change was made to the first 3 days 
of the track forecast.  Beyond day 3, there has been a notable 
westward shift in the track guidance.  The NHC forecast is a bit 
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as 
the bulk of the latest model guidance.
 
Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during 
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low 
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. 
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much 
land interaction with Honduras occurs.  The majority of the models 
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or 
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, 
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model 
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but 
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this 
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h.  The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance 
envelope beyond 36 h.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for
portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 15.9N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 




us

STORM_FULLNAME Discusion

Publicado en 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024


313 
WTNT54 KNHC 140849
TDSAT4

Depresión Tropical Diecinueve Discusión Número 3
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL192024
400 AM EST jueves 14 de noviembre de 2024

La presentación del sistema por satélite ha ido mejorando
gradualmente. Las últimas estimaciones de intensidad subjetiva de
TAFB y SAB son T-2.0/30 kt. Basado en las estimaciones subjetivas de
Dvorak y la mejora en la estructura convectiva observada en las
imágenes de satélite, el sistema se actualiza a una depresión
tropical. Esto se ve respaldado por los datos del scatterómetro del
Indian Oceansat, que muestra una circulación bien definida. La
intensidad se establece en 30 kt según las estimaciones de Dvorak.

La Depresión Tropical Diecinueve se ha estado moviendo más rápido,
justo al sur del oeste, o 265/14 kt, aunque hoy debería comenzar a
disminuir la velocidad. Una cresta de nivel medio centrada al norte
de la depresión sobre el Estrecho de Florida debe mantenerla en
dirección oeste hasta el viernes, tomando el sistema cerca de la
costa norte del este de Honduras y, posiblemente, tierra adentro.
Después de eso, se espera que la cresta se rompa, y los modelos
coinciden en que el ciclón serpenteará en corrientes débiles hasta
el viernes hasta el fin de semana. Se espera que este movimiento
lento provoque que el sistema produzca fuertes lluvias en la misma
región, lo que probablemente provocará inundaciones que amenazan la
vida en zonas de América Central. Para principios de la próxima
semana, las perforaciones de crestas deben restablecerse sobre
Florida y el este del Golfo de México, lo que debería provocar que
el sistema se mueva hacia el noroeste a través de Belice y la
Península de Yucatán. Se hicieron muy pocos cambios en los primeros
3 días del pronóstico de trayectoria. Más allá del día 3, se ha
producido un notable cambio hacia el oeste en la guía de
trayectoria. El pronóstico del CNH está un poco al oeste del
pronóstico anterior más allá del día 3, pero no tan al oeste como la
mayor parte de la guía del último modelo.

Las condiciones ambientales son propicias para la intensificación
durante el próximo día o dos, mientras el sistema permanece sobre el
agua, con baja cizalladura vertical del viento y humedades
relativamente altas de nivel medio. Sin embargo, existe una
incertidumbre significativa en cuanto a la interacción entre tierras
y Honduras. La mayoría de los modelos muestran que el centro se
mueve apenas tierra adentro sobre Honduras, o lo estacionan justo en
la costa, entre las horas 48 y 72. Sin embargo, si el sistema se
mantiene en alta mar, como lo demuestra la última solución modelo
HWRF, podría aprovechar las condiciones atmosféricas y oceánicas
propicias y continuar fortaleciéndose. El último pronóstico de
intensidad del CNH es similar al anterior hasta las 36 h, pero luego
es de unos 5 kt más bajo que el pronóstico anterior, ya que este
pronóstico muestra una interacción más profunda con la tierra más
allá de las 36 h. El último pronóstico de intensidad del CNH está
por encima del límite máximo del envolvente de orientación más allá
de las 36 h.

MENSAJES CLAVE:

1. Hasta principios de la próxima semana, las fuertes lluvias
causarán inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra que
amenazan la vida en porciones de América Central, particularmente
Honduras, Belice, El Salvador, el este de Guatemala y el oeste de
Nicaragua.

2. Se pronostica que la perturbación estará cerca de la fuerza de
huracán cuando se mueva cerca de la costa este de Honduras el
viernes y el sábado. Las vigilancias de huracán y los avisos de
tormenta tropical están vigentes en porciones de esa área.

3. Se pronostica que el sistema se acercará a Belice y a la
península de Yucatán en México con la fuerza de huracán o cerca de
ella a principios de la próxima semana, donde existe el riesgo de
marejadas ciclónicas peligrosas y vientos destructivos. Los
residentes de estas áreas deben monitorear las últimas
actualizaciones del pronóstico y asegurarse de que tienen su plan de
huracanes establecido.

4. Es demasiado pronto para determinar qué impactos podría causar el
sistema en porciones del este del Golfo de México, incluidos
Florida, los Cayos de Florida y Cuba durante la mitad de la próxima
semana. Los residentes de estas áreas deben monitorear regularmente
las actualizaciones del pronóstico.


POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
 12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
 24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
 36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...CERCA DE LA COSTA
 60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...CERCA DE LA COSTA
 72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
 96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...SOBRE EL AGUA
120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Pronosticador Hagen

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***




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