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Oregon's Sabrina Ionescu takes home Naismith Trophy Player of the Year honor

Sabrina Ionescu is the Naismith Trophy Player of the Year, concluding her illustrious Oregon career with one of the major postseason women's basketball awards. As the only player in college basketball history with 2,000 career points (2,562), 1,000 assists (1,091) and 1,000 rebounds (1,040) and the NCAA all-time leader with 26 triple-doubles, Ionescu has continued to rack up player of the year honors for her remarkable senior season.




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Oregon's Ionescu wins women's Naismith Player of the Year

Already named The Associated Press women's player of the year, Ionescu was awarded the Naismith Trophy for the most outstanding women's basketball player on Friday. Ionescu, who won AP All-American honors three times, shattered the NCAA career triple-double mark with 26 and became the first player in college history to have 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds and 1,000 assists. Ionescu averaged 17.5 points, 9.1 assists and 8.6 rebounds with eight triple-doubles as a senior this season.




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Texas women's basketball coach Karen Aston dismissed

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) -- Texas dismissed women's basketball coach Karen Aston on Friday, ending an eight-year stint that included four straight trips to the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 from 2015-2018.




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Top three Satou Sabally moments: Sharpshooter's 33-point game in Pullman was unforgettable

Since the day she stepped on campus, Satou Sabally's game has turned heads — and for good reason. She's had many memorable moments in a Duck uniform, including a standout performance against the USA Women in Nov. 2019, a monster game against Cal in Jan. 2020 and a career performance in Pullman in Jan. 2019.




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Top three Ruthy Hebard moments: NCAA record for consecutive FGs etched her place in history

Over four years in Eugene, Ruthy Hebard has made a name for herself with reliability and dynamic play. She's had many memorable moments in a Duck uniform. But her career day against Washington State (34 points), her moment reaching 2,000 career points and her NCAA record for consecutive made FGs (2018) tops the list. Against the Trojans, she set the record (30) and later extended it to 33.




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Texas hires Schaefer from Mississippi State

Texas moved quickly to hire a new women's basketball coach, luring Vic Schaefer away from powerhouse Mississippi State on Sunday. Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte announced the move by tweeting a picture of himself with Schaefer and his family holding up the “Hook'em Horns” hand signal. The move comes just two days after Texas dismissed eight-year coach Karen Aston, who had only one losing season in her tenure and had led the Longhorns to the Sweet 16 or farther four times.




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Sydney Wiese, recovering from coronavirus, continually talking with friends and family: 'Our world is uniting'

Hear how former Oregon State guard and current member of the WNBA's LA Sparks Sydney Wiese is recovering from a COVID-19 diagnosis, seeing friends and family show support and love during a trying time.




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Clean sweep: Oregon's Sabrina Ionescu is unanimous Player of the Year after winning Wooden Award

Sabrina Ionescu wins the Wooden Award for the second year in a row, becoming the fifth in the trophy's history to win in back-to-back seasons. With the honor, she completes a complete sweep of the national postseason player of the year awards. As a senior, Ionescu matched her own single-season mark with eight triple-doubles in 2019-20, and she was incredibly efficient from the field with a career-best 51.8 field goal percentage.




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Former OSU guard Sydney Wiese talks unwavering support while recovering from coronavirus

Pac-12 Networks' Mike Yam interviews former Oregon State guard Sydney Wiese to hear how she's recovering from contracting COVID-19. Wiese recounts her recent travel and how she's been lifted up by steadfast support from friends, family and fellow WNBA players. See more from Wiese during "Pac-12 Playlist" on Monday, April 6 at 7 p.m. PT/ 8 p.m. MT on Pac-12 Network.




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Oregon's Sabrina Ionescu, Ruthy Hebard, Satou Sabally share meaning of Naismith Starting 5 honor

Pac-12 Networks' Ashley Adamson speaks with Oregon stars Sabrina Ionescu, Ruthy Hebard and Satou Sabally to hear how special their recent Naismith Starting 5 honor was, as the Ducks comprise three of the nation's top five players. Ionescu (point guard), Sabally (small forward) and Hebard (power forward) led the Ducks to a 31-2 record in the 2019-20 season before it was cut short.




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Sabrina Ionescu, Ruthy Hebard, Satou Sabally on staying connected, WNBA Draft, Oregon's historic season

Pac-12 Networks' Ashley Adamson catches up with Oregon's "Big 3" of Sabrina Ionescu, Ruthy Hebard and Satou Sabally to hear how they're adjusting to the new world without sports while still preparing for the WNBA Draft on April 17. They also share how they're staying hungry for basketball during the hiatus.




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WNBA Draft Profile: Productive forward Ruthy Hebard has uncanny handling, scoring, rebounding ability

Ruthy Hebard, who ranks 2nd in Oregon history in points (2,368) and 3rd in rebounds (1,299), prepares to play in the WNBA following four years in Eugene. Hebard is the Oregon and Pac-12 all-time leader in career field-goal percentage (65.1) and averaged 17.3 points per game and a career-high 9.6 rebounds per game as a senior.




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Aari McDonald on returning for her senior year at Arizona: 'We're ready to set the bar higher'

Arizona's Aari McDonald and Pac-12 Networks' Ashley Adamson discuss the guard's decision to return for her senior season in Tucson and how she now has the opportunity to be the face of the league. McDonald, the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, was one of the nation's top scorers in 2019-20, averaging 20.6 points per game.




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WNBA Draft Profile: Do-it-all OSU talent Mikayla Pivec has her sights set on a pro breakout

Oregon State guard Mikayla Pivec is the epitome of a versatile player. Her 1,030 career rebounds were the most in school history, and she finished just one assist shy of becoming the first in OSU history to tally 1,500 points, 1,000 rebounds and 500 assists. She'll head to the WNBA looking to showcase her talents at the next level following the 2020 WNBA Draft.




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WNBA Draft Profile: UCLA guard Japreece Dean ready to lead at the next level

UCLA guard Japreece Dean is primed to shine at the next level as she heads to the WNBA Draft in April. The do-it-all point-woman was an All-Pac-12 honoree last season, and one of only seven D-1 hoopers with at least 13 points and 5.5 assists per game.




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Mississippi State hires Nikki McCray-Penson as women's coach

Mississippi State hired former Old Dominion women’s basketball coach Nikki McCray-Penson to replace Vic Schaefer as the Bulldogs’ head coach. Athletic director John Cohen called McCray-Penson “a proven winner who will lead one of the best programs in the nation” on the department’s website. McCray-Penson, a former Tennessee star and Women’s Basketball Hall of Famer, said it’s been a dream to coach in the Southeastern Conference and she’s “grateful and blessed for this incredible honor and opportunity.”




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Ruthy Hebard, Sabrina Ionescu 'represent everything that is great about basketball'

Ruthy Hebard and Sabrina Ionescu have had a remarkable four years together in Eugene, rewriting the history books and pushing the Ducks into the national spotlight. Catch the debut of "Our Stories Unfinished Business: Sabrina Ionescu and Ruthy Hebard" at Wednesday, April 15 at 7 p.m. PT/ 8 p.m. MT on Pac-12 Network.




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Oregon's Ionescu looks forward to pro career in the WNBA

With the spotlight on her growing ever brighter, Sabrina Ionescu is aware she's becoming her own brand. One of the most decorated players in women's college basketball, Ionescu is about to go pro with the WNBA draft coming up Friday. Ionescu said Oregon has prepared her to understand how much impact she can have in the community and on women's basketball.




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Tennessee adds graduate transfer Keyen Green from Liberty

The Tennessee Lady Vols have added forward-center Keyen Green as a graduate transfer from Liberty. Coach Kellie Harper announced Wednesday that Green has signed a scholarship for the upcoming season. The 6-foot-1 Green spent the past four seasons at Liberty and graduated in May 2019.




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Former Alabama prep star Davenport transfers to Georgia

Maori Davenport, who drew national attention over an eligibility dispute during her senior year of high school, is transferring to Georgia after playing sparingly in her lone season at Rutgers. Lady Bulldogs coach Joni Taylor announced Davenport's decision Wednesday. The 6-foot-4 center from Troy, Alabama will have to sit out a season under NCAA transfer rules before she is eligible to join Georgia in 2021-22.




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Dr. Michelle Tom shares journey from ASU women's hoops to treating COVID-19 patients

Pac-12 Networks' Ashley Adamson speaks with former Arizona State women's basketball player Michelle Tom, who is now a doctor treating COVID-19 patients Winslow Indian Health Care Center and Little Colorado Medical Center in Eastern Arizona.




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Chicago State women's basketball coach Misty Opat resigns

CHICAGO (AP) -- Chicago State women’s coach Misty Opat resigned Thursday after two seasons and a 3-55 record.




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'A pioneer, a trailblazer' - Reaction to McGraw's retirement

Notre Dame coach Muffet McGraw retired after 33 seasons Wednesday. What she did for me in those four years, I came in as a girl and left as a woman.'' - WNBA player Kayla McBride, who played for Notre Dame from 2010-14.




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Notre Dame's Muffet McGraw retires; won 2 national titles

Just two years removed from the euphoria of winning her second national championship, Muffet McGraw knew it was time. The Hall of Fame coach retired Wednesday with a resume that includes two national championships in 33 seasons at the school, a surprising decision to many of the countless players and coaches she has influenced on and off the court as a mentor and advocate for women. ''I am proud of what we have accomplished and I can turn the page to the next chapter in my life with no regrets, knowing that I gave it my best every day,'' said McGraw, a four-time winner of the AP women's basketball Coach of the Year.




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Ivey introduced as new Notre Dame coach, succeeding McGraw

Niele Ivey is coming home.




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Detroit Mercy hires Gilbert as women's basketball coach

DETROIT (AP) -- Detroit Mercy hired AnnMarie Gilbert as women’s basketball coach.




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A Star Wars look at Sabrina Ionescu's Oregon accolades

See some of Sabrina Ionescu's remarkable accomplishments at Oregon set to the Star Wars opening crawl.




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Oregon State's Aleah Goodman, Maddie Washington reflect on earning 2020 Pac-12 Sportsmanship Award

The Pac-12 Student-Athlete Advisory Committee voted to award the Oregon State women’s basketball team with the Pac-12 Sportsmanship Award for the 2019-20 season, honoring their character and sportsmanship before a rivalry game against Oregon in Jan. 2020 -- the day Kobe Bryant, his daughter, Gigi, and seven others passed away in a helicopter crash in Southern California. In the above video, Aleah Goodman and Madison Washington share how the teams came together as one in a circle of prayer before the game.




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Oregon State women's basketball receives Pac-12 Sportsmanship Award for supporting rival Oregon in tragedy

On the day Kobe Bryant suddenly passed away, the Beavers embraced their rivals at midcourt in a moment of strength to support the Ducks, many of whom had personal connections to Bryant and his daughter, Gigi. For this, Oregon State is the 2020 recipient of the Pac-12 Sportsmanship Award.




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Natalie Chou breaks through stereotypes, inspires young Asian American girls on 'Our Stories' quick look

Watch the debut of "Our Stories - Natalie Chou" on Sunday, May 10 at 12:30 p.m. PT/ 1:30 p.m. MT on Pac-12 Network.




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Stanford's Tara VanDerveer on Haley Jones' versatile freshman year: 'It was really incredible'

During Friday's "Pac-12 Perspective," Stanford head coach Tara VanDerveer spoke about Haley Jones' positionless game and how the Cardinal used the dynamic freshman in 2019-20. Download and listen wherever you get your podcasts.




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Pac-12 women's basketball student-athletes reflect on the influence of their moms ahead of Mother's Day

Pac-12 student-athletes give shout-outs to their moms ahead of Mother's Day on May 10th, 2020 including UCLA's Michaela Onyenwere, Oregon's Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally, Arizona's Aari McDonald, Cate Reese, and Lacie Hull, Stanford's Kiana Williams, USC's Endyia Rogers, and Aliyah Jeune, and Utah's Brynna Maxwell.




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NCAA lays out 9-step plan to resume sports

The process is based on the U.S. three-phase federal guidelines for easing social distancing and re-opening non-essential businesses.




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The limiting behavior of isotonic and convex regression estimators when the model is misspecified

Eunji Lim.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 2053--2097.

Abstract:
We study the asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimators when the model is possibly misspecified. We consider the setting where we wish to estimate an unknown function $f_{*}:(0,1)^{d} ightarrow mathbb{R}$ from observations $(X,Y),(X_{1},Y_{1}),cdots ,(X_{n},Y_{n})$; our estimator $hat{g}_{n}$ is the minimizer of $sum _{i=1}^{n}(Y_{i}-g(X_{i}))^{2}/n$ over $gin mathcal{G}$ for some set of functions $mathcal{G}$. We provide sufficient conditions on the metric entropy of $mathcal{G}$, under which $hat{g}_{n}$ converges to $g_{*}$ as $n ightarrow infty $, where $g_{*}$ is the minimizer of $|g-f_{*}| riangleq mathbb{E}(g(X)-f_{*}(X))^{2}$ over $gin mathcal{G}$. As corollaries of our theorem, we establish $|hat{g}_{n}-g_{*}| ightarrow 0$ as $n ightarrow infty $ when $mathcal{G}$ is the set of monotone functions or the set of convex functions. We also make a connection between the convergence rate of $|hat{g}_{n}-g_{*}|$ and the metric entropy of $mathcal{G}$. As special cases of our finding, we compute the convergence rate of $|hat{g}_{n}-g_{*}|^{2}$ when $mathcal{G}$ is the set of bounded monotone functions or the set of bounded convex functions.




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Statistical convergence of the EM algorithm on Gaussian mixture models

Ruofei Zhao, Yuanzhi Li, Yuekai Sun.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 632--660.

Abstract:
We study the convergence behavior of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm on Gaussian mixture models with an arbitrary number of mixture components and mixing weights. We show that as long as the means of the components are separated by at least $Omega (sqrt{min {M,d}})$, where $M$ is the number of components and $d$ is the dimension, the EM algorithm converges locally to the global optimum of the log-likelihood. Further, we show that the convergence rate is linear and characterize the size of the basin of attraction to the global optimum.




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On the Letac-Massam conjecture and existence of high dimensional Bayes estimators for graphical models

Emanuel Ben-David, Bala Rajaratnam.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 580--604.

Abstract:
The Wishart distribution defined on the open cone of positive-definite matrices plays a central role in multivariate analysis and multivariate distribution theory. Its domain of parameters is often referred to as the Gindikin set. In recent years, varieties of useful extensions of the Wishart distribution have been proposed in the literature for the purposes of studying Markov random fields and graphical models. In particular, generalizations of the Wishart distribution, referred to as Type I and Type II (graphical) Wishart distributions introduced by Letac and Massam in Annals of Statistics (2007) play important roles in both frequentist and Bayesian inference for Gaussian graphical models. These distributions have been especially useful in high-dimensional settings due to the flexibility offered by their multiple-shape parameters. Concerning Type I and Type II Wishart distributions, a conjecture of Letac and Massam concerns the domain of multiple-shape parameters of these distributions. The conjecture also has implications for the existence of Bayes estimators corresponding to these high dimensional priors. The conjecture, which was first posed in the Annals of Statistics, has now been an open problem for about 10 years. In this paper, we give a necessary condition for the Letac and Massam conjecture to hold. More precisely, we prove that if the Letac and Massam conjecture holds on a decomposable graph, then no two separators of the graph can be nested within each other. For this, we analyze Type I and Type II Wishart distributions on appropriate Markov equivalent perfect DAG models and succeed in deriving the aforementioned necessary condition. This condition in particular identifies a class of counterexamples to the conjecture.




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Drift estimation for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems

Gregor Pasemann, Wilhelm Stannat.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 547--579.

Abstract:
A parameter estimation problem for a class of semilinear stochastic evolution equations is considered. Conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are given in terms of growth and continuity properties of the nonlinear part. Emphasis is put on the case of stochastic reaction-diffusion systems. Robustness results for statistical inference under model uncertainty are provided.




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Gaussian field on the symmetric group: Prediction and learning

François Bachoc, Baptiste Broto, Fabrice Gamboa, Jean-Michel Loubes.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 503--546.

Abstract:
In the framework of the supervised learning of a real function defined on an abstract space $mathcal{X}$, Gaussian processes are widely used. The Euclidean case for $mathcal{X}$ is well known and has been widely studied. In this paper, we explore the less classical case where $mathcal{X}$ is the non commutative finite group of permutations (namely the so-called symmetric group $S_{N}$). We provide an application to Gaussian process based optimization of Latin Hypercube Designs. We also extend our results to the case of partial rankings.




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On polyhedral estimation of signals via indirect observations

Anatoli Juditsky, Arkadi Nemirovski.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 458--502.

Abstract:
We consider the problem of recovering linear image of unknown signal belonging to a given convex compact signal set from noisy observation of another linear image of the signal. We develop a simple generic efficiently computable non linear in observations “polyhedral” estimate along with computation-friendly techniques for its design and risk analysis. We demonstrate that under favorable circumstances the resulting estimate is provably near-optimal in the minimax sense, the “favorable circumstances” being less restrictive than the weakest known so far assumptions ensuring near-optimality of estimates which are linear in observations.




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Recovery of simultaneous low rank and two-way sparse coefficient matrices, a nonconvex approach

Ming Yu, Varun Gupta, Mladen Kolar.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 413--457.

Abstract:
We study the problem of recovery of matrices that are simultaneously low rank and row and/or column sparse. Such matrices appear in recent applications in cognitive neuroscience, imaging, computer vision, macroeconomics, and genetics. We propose a GDT (Gradient Descent with hard Thresholding) algorithm to efficiently recover matrices with such structure, by minimizing a bi-convex function over a nonconvex set of constraints. We show linear convergence of the iterates obtained by GDT to a region within statistical error of an optimal solution. As an application of our method, we consider multi-task learning problems and show that the statistical error rate obtained by GDT is near optimal compared to minimax rate. Experiments demonstrate competitive performance and much faster running speed compared to existing methods, on both simulations and real data sets.




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Assessing prediction error at interpolation and extrapolation points

Assaf Rabinowicz, Saharon Rosset.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 272--301.

Abstract:
Common model selection criteria, such as $AIC$ and its variants, are based on in-sample prediction error estimators. However, in many applications involving predicting at interpolation and extrapolation points, in-sample error does not represent the relevant prediction error. In this paper new prediction error estimators, $tAI$ and $Loss(w_{t})$ are introduced. These estimators generalize previous error estimators, however are also applicable for assessing prediction error in cases involving interpolation and extrapolation. Based on these prediction error estimators, two model selection criteria with the same spirit as $AIC$ and Mallow’s $C_{p}$ are suggested. The advantages of our suggested methods are demonstrated in a simulation and a real data analysis of studies involving interpolation and extrapolation in linear mixed model and Gaussian process regression.




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Estimation of linear projections of non-sparse coefficients in high-dimensional regression

David Azriel, Armin Schwartzman.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 174--206.

Abstract:
In this work we study estimation of signals when the number of parameters is much larger than the number of observations. A large body of literature assumes for these kind of problems a sparse structure where most of the parameters are zero or close to zero. When this assumption does not hold, one can focus on low-dimensional functions of the parameter vector. In this work we study one-dimensional linear projections. Specifically, in the context of high-dimensional linear regression, the parameter of interest is ${oldsymbol{eta}}$ and we study estimation of $mathbf{a}^{T}{oldsymbol{eta}}$. We show that $mathbf{a}^{T}hat{oldsymbol{eta}}$, where $hat{oldsymbol{eta}}$ is the least squares estimator, using pseudo-inverse when $p>n$, is minimax and admissible. Thus, for linear projections no regularization or shrinkage is needed. This estimator is easy to analyze and confidence intervals can be constructed. We study a high-dimensional dataset from brain imaging where it is shown that the signal is weak, non-sparse and significantly different from zero.




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Adaptive estimation in the supremum norm for semiparametric mixtures of regressions

Heiko Werner, Hajo Holzmann, Pierre Vandekerkhove.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1816--1871.

Abstract:
We investigate a flexible two-component semiparametric mixture of regressions model, in which one of the conditional component distributions of the response given the covariate is unknown but assumed symmetric about a location parameter, while the other is specified up to a scale parameter. The location and scale parameters together with the proportion are allowed to depend nonparametrically on covariates. After settling identifiability, we provide local M-estimators for these parameters which converge in the sup-norm at the optimal rates over Hölder-smoothness classes. We also introduce an adaptive version of the estimators based on the Lepski-method. Sup-norm bounds show that the local M-estimator properly estimates the functions globally, and are the first step in the construction of useful inferential tools such as confidence bands. In our analysis we develop general results about rates of convergence in the sup-norm as well as adaptive estimation of local M-estimators which might be of some independent interest, and which can also be applied in various other settings. We investigate the finite-sample behaviour of our method in a simulation study, and give an illustration to a real data set from bioinformatics.




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Exact recovery in block spin Ising models at the critical line

Matthias Löwe, Kristina Schubert.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1796--1815.

Abstract:
We show how to exactly reconstruct the block structure at the critical line in the so-called Ising block model. This model was recently re-introduced by Berthet, Rigollet and Srivastava in [2]. There the authors show how to exactly reconstruct blocks away from the critical line and they give an upper and a lower bound on the number of observations one needs; thereby they establish a minimax optimal rate (up to constants). Our technique relies on a combination of their methods with fluctuation results obtained in [20]. The latter are extended to the full critical regime. We find that the number of necessary observations depends on whether the interaction parameter between two blocks is positive or negative: In the first case, there are about $Nlog N$ observations required to exactly recover the block structure, while in the latter case $sqrt{N}log N$ observations suffice.




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Efficient estimation in expectile regression using envelope models

Tuo Chen, Zhihua Su, Yi Yang, Shanshan Ding.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 143--173.

Abstract:
As a generalization of the classical linear regression, expectile regression (ER) explores the relationship between the conditional expectile of a response variable and a set of predictor variables. ER with respect to different expectile levels can provide a comprehensive picture of the conditional distribution of the response variable given the predictors. We adopt an efficient estimation method called the envelope model ([8]) in ER, and construct a novel envelope expectile regression (EER) model. Estimation of the EER parameters can be performed using the generalized method of moments (GMM). We establish the consistency and derive the asymptotic distribution of the EER estimators. In addition, we show that the EER estimators are asymptotically more efficient than the ER estimators. Numerical experiments and real data examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency gains attained by EER compared to ER, and the efficiency gains can further lead to improvements in prediction.




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Bias correction in conditional multivariate extremes

Mikael Escobar-Bach, Yuri Goegebeur, Armelle Guillou.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1773--1795.

Abstract:
We consider bias-corrected estimation of the stable tail dependence function in the regression context. To this aim, we first estimate the bias of a smoothed estimator of the stable tail dependence function, and then we subtract it from the estimator. The weak convergence, as a stochastic process, of the resulting asymptotically unbiased estimator of the conditional stable tail dependence function, correctly normalized, is established under mild assumptions, the covariate argument being fixed. The finite sample behaviour of our asymptotically unbiased estimator is then illustrated on a simulation study and compared to two alternatives, which are not bias corrected. Finally, our methodology is applied to a dataset of air pollution measurements.




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Monotone least squares and isotonic quantiles

Alexandre Mösching, Lutz Dümbgen.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 24--49.

Abstract:
We consider bivariate observations $(X_{1},Y_{1}),ldots,(X_{n},Y_{n})$ such that, conditional on the $X_{i}$, the $Y_{i}$ are independent random variables. Precisely, the conditional distribution function of $Y_{i}$ equals $F_{X_{i}}$, where $(F_{x})_{x}$ is an unknown family of distribution functions. Under the sole assumption that $xmapsto F_{x}$ is isotonic with respect to stochastic order, one can estimate $(F_{x})_{x}$ in two ways: (i) For any fixed $y$ one estimates the antitonic function $xmapsto F_{x}(y)$ via nonparametric monotone least squares, replacing the responses $Y_{i}$ with the indicators $1_{[Y_{i}le y]}$. (ii) For any fixed $eta in (0,1)$ one estimates the isotonic quantile function $xmapsto F_{x}^{-1}(eta)$ via a nonparametric version of regression quantiles. We show that these two approaches are closely related, with (i) being more flexible than (ii). Then, under mild regularity conditions, we establish rates of convergence for the resulting estimators $hat{F}_{x}(y)$ and $hat{F}_{x}^{-1}(eta)$, uniformly over $(x,y)$ and $(x,eta)$ in certain rectangles as well as uniformly in $y$ or $eta$ for a fixed $x$.




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On the predictive potential of kernel principal components

Ben Jones, Andreas Artemiou, Bing Li.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1--23.

Abstract:
We give a probabilistic analysis of a phenomenon in statistics which, until recently, has not received a convincing explanation. This phenomenon is that the leading principal components tend to possess more predictive power for a response variable than lower-ranking ones despite the procedure being unsupervised. Our result, in its most general form, shows that the phenomenon goes far beyond the context of linear regression and classical principal components — if an arbitrary distribution for the predictor $X$ and an arbitrary conditional distribution for $Yvert X$ are chosen then any measureable function $g(Y)$, subject to a mild condition, tends to be more correlated with the higher-ranking kernel principal components than with the lower-ranking ones. The “arbitrariness” is formulated in terms of unitary invariance then the tendency is explicitly quantified by exploring how unitary invariance relates to the Cauchy distribution. The most general results, for technical reasons, are shown for the case where the kernel space is finite dimensional. The occurency of this tendency in real world databases is also investigated to show that our results are consistent with observation.




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Posterior contraction and credible sets for filaments of regression functions

Wei Li, Subhashis Ghosal.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1707--1743.

Abstract:
A filament consists of local maximizers of a smooth function $f$ when moving in a certain direction. A filamentary structure is an important feature of the shape of an object and is also considered as an important lower dimensional characterization of multivariate data. There have been some recent theoretical studies of filaments in the nonparametric kernel density estimation context. This paper supplements the current literature in two ways. First, we provide a Bayesian approach to the filament estimation in regression context and study the posterior contraction rates using a finite random series of B-splines basis. Compared with the kernel-estimation method, this has a theoretical advantage as the bias can be better controlled when the function is smoother, which allows obtaining better rates. Assuming that $f:mathbb{R}^{2}mapsto mathbb{R}$ belongs to an isotropic Hölder class of order $alpha geq 4$, with the optimal choice of smoothing parameters, the posterior contraction rates for the filament points on some appropriately defined integral curves and for the Hausdorff distance of the filament are both $(n/log n)^{(2-alpha )/(2(1+alpha ))}$. Secondly, we provide a way to construct a credible set with sufficient frequentist coverage for the filaments. We demonstrate the success of our proposed method in simulations and one application to earthquake data.




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Asymptotic seed bias in respondent-driven sampling

Yuling Yan, Bret Hanlon, Sebastien Roch, Karl Rohe.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1577--1610.

Abstract:
Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) collects a sample of individuals in a networked population by incentivizing the sampled individuals to refer their contacts into the sample. This iterative process is initialized from some seed node(s). Sometimes, this selection creates a large amount of seed bias. Other times, the seed bias is small. This paper gains a deeper understanding of this bias by characterizing its effect on the limiting distribution of various RDS estimators. Using classical tools and results from multi-type branching processes [12], we show that the seed bias is negligible for the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimator and non-negligible for both the inverse probability weighted and Volz-Heckathorn (VH) estimators. In particular, we show that (i) above a critical threshold, VH converge to a non-trivial mixture distribution, where the mixture component depends on the seed node, and the mixture distribution is possibly multi-modal. Moreover, (ii) GLS converges to a Gaussian distribution independent of the seed node, under a certain condition on the Markov process. Numerical experiments with both simulated data and empirical social networks suggest that these results appear to hold beyond the Markov conditions of the theorems.