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The Effect of Thiazolidinediones on Plasma Adiponectin Levels in Normal, Obese, and Type 2 Diabetic Subjects

Joseph G. Yu
Oct 1, 2002; 51:2968-2974
Obesity Studies




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High Incidence of Metabolically Active Brown Adipose Tissue in Healthy Adult Humans: Effects of Cold Exposure and Adiposity

Masayuki Saito
Jul 1, 2009; 58:1526-1531
Metabolism




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Relation Between Antioxidant Enzyme Gene Expression and Antioxidative Defense Status of Insulin-Producing Cells

Markus Tiedge
Nov 1, 1997; 46:1733-1742
Original Article




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Are the {beta}-Cell Signaling Molecules Malonyl-CoA and Cystolic Long-Chain Acyl-CoA Implicated in Multiple Tissue Defects of Obesity and NIDDM?

Marc Prentki
Mar 1, 1996; 45:273-283
Original Article




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The Effect of Insulin on the Disposal of Intravenous Glucose: Results from Indirect Calorimetry and Hepatic and Femoral Venous Catheterization

R A DeFronzo
Dec 1, 1981; 30:1000-1007
Original Contribution




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NCEP-Defined Metabolic Syndrome, Diabetes, and Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease Among NHANES III Participants Age 50 Years and Older

Charles M. Alexander
May 1, 2003; 52:1210-1214
Complications




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Evidence for 5'AMP-Activated Protein Kinase Mediation of the Effect of Muscle Contraction on Glucose Transport

Tatsuya Hayashi
Aug 1, 1998; 47:1369-1373
Rapid Publications




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{beta}-Cell Deficit and Increased {beta}-Cell Apoptosis in Humans With Type 2 Diabetes

Alexandra E. Butler
Jan 1, 2003; 52:102-110
Islet Studies




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Assessment of MTNR1B Type 2 Diabetes Genetic Risk Modification by Shift Work and Morningness-Eveningness Preference in the UK Biobank

Night shift work, behavioral rhythms, and the common MTNR1B risk single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs10830963, associate with type 2 diabetes; however, whether they exert joint effects to exacerbate type 2 diabetes risk is unknown. Among employed participants of European ancestry in the UK Biobank (N = 189,488), we aimed to test the cross-sectional independent associations and joint interaction effects of these risk factors on odds of type 2 diabetes (n = 5,042 cases) and HbA1c levels (n = 175,156). Current shift work, definite morning or evening preference, and MTNR1B rs10830963 risk allele associated with type 2 diabetes and HbA1c levels. The effect of rs10830963 was not modified by shift work schedules. While marginal evidence of interaction between self-reported morningness-eveningness preference and rs10830963 on risk of type 2 diabetes was seen, this interaction did not persist when analysis was expanded to include all participants regardless of employment status and when accelerometer-derived sleep midpoint was used as an objective measure of morningness-eveningness preference. Our findings suggest that MTNR1B risk allele carriers who carry out shift work or have more extreme morningness-eveningness preference may not have enhanced risk of type 2 diabetes.




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Rare Genetic Variants of Large Effect Influence Risk of Type 1 Diabetes

Most replicated genetic determinants for type 1 diabetes are common (minor allele frequency [MAF] >5%). We aimed to identify novel rare or low-frequency (MAF <5%) single nucleotide polymorphisms with large effects on risk of type 1 diabetes. We undertook deep imputation of genotyped data followed by genome-wide association testing and meta-analysis of 9,358 type 1 diabetes case and 15,705 control subjects from 12 European cohorts. Candidate variants were replicated in a separate cohort of 4,329 case and 9,543 control subjects. Our meta-analysis identified 27 independent variants outside the MHC, among which 3 were novel and had MAF <5%. Three of these variants replicated with Preplication < 0.05 and Pcombined < Pdiscovery. In silico analysis prioritized a rare variant at 2q24.3 (rs60587303 [C], MAF 0.5%) within the first intron of STK39, with an effect size comparable with those of common variants in the INS and PTPN22 loci (combined [from the discovery and replication cohorts] estimate of odds ratio [ORcombined] 1.97, 95% CI 1.58–2.47, Pcombined = 2.9 x 10–9). Pharmacological inhibition of Stk39 activity in primary murine T cells augmented effector responses through enhancement of interleukin 2 signaling. These findings provide insight into the genetic architecture of type 1 diabetes and have identified rare variants having a large effect on disease risk.




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PPARA Polymorphism Influences the Cardiovascular Benefit of Fenofibrate in Type 2 Diabetes: Findings From ACCORD-Lipid

The cardiovascular benefits of fibrates have been shown to be heterogeneous and to depend on the presence of atherogenic dyslipidemia. We investigated whether genetic variability in the PPARA gene, coding for the pharmacological target of fibrates (PPAR-α), could be used to improve the selection of patients with type 2 diabetes who may derive cardiovascular benefit from addition of this treatment to statins. We identified a common variant at the PPARA locus (rs6008845, C/T) displaying a study-wide significant influence on the effect of fenofibrate on major cardiovascular events (MACE) among 3,065 self-reported white subjects treated with simvastatin and randomized to fenofibrate or placebo in the ACCORD-Lipid trial. T/T homozygotes (36% of participants) experienced a 51% MACE reduction in response to fenofibrate (hazard ratio 0.49; 95% CI 0.34–0.72), whereas no benefit was observed for other genotypes (Pinteraction = 3.7 x 10–4). The rs6008845-by-fenofibrate interaction on MACE was replicated in African Americans from ACCORD (N = 585, P = 0.02) and in external cohorts (ACCORD-BP, ORIGIN, and TRIUMPH, total N = 3059, P = 0.005). Remarkably, rs6008845 T/T homozygotes experienced a cardiovascular benefit from fibrate even in the absence of atherogenic dyslipidemia. Among these individuals, but not among carriers of other genotypes, fenofibrate treatment was associated with lower circulating levels of CCL11—a proinflammatory and atherogenic chemokine also known as eotaxin (P for rs6008845-by-fenofibrate interaction = 0.003). The GTEx data set revealed regulatory functions of rs6008845 on PPARA expression in many tissues. In summary, we have found a common PPARA regulatory variant that influences the cardiovascular effects of fenofibrate and that could be used to identify patients with type 2 diabetes who would derive benefit from fenofibrate treatment, in addition to those with atherogenic dyslipidemia.




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Comprehensive Glycomic Analysis Reveals That Human Serum Albumin Glycation Specifically Affects the Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy of Different Anticoagulant Drugs in Diabetes

Long-term hyperglycemia in patients with diabetes leads to human serum albumin (HSA) glycation, which may impair HSA function as a transport protein and affect the therapeutic efficacy of anticoagulants in patients with diabetes. In this study, a novel mass spectrometry approach was developed to reveal the differences in the profiles of HSA glycation sites between patients with diabetes and healthy subjects. K199 was the glycation site most significantly changed in patients with diabetes, contributing to different interactions of glycated HSA and normal HSA with two types of anticoagulant drugs, heparin and warfarin. An in vitro experiment showed that the binding affinity to warfarin became stronger when HSA was glycated, while HSA binding to heparin was not significantly influenced by glycation. A pharmacokinetic study showed a decreased level of free warfarin in the plasma of diabetic rats. A preliminary retrospective clinical study also revealed that there was a statistically significant difference in the anticoagulant efficacy between patients with diabetes and patients without diabetes who had been treated with warfarin. Our work suggests that larger studies are needed to provide additional specific guidance for patients with diabetes when they are administered anticoagulant drugs or drugs for treating other chronic diseases.




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Workers blame Iberostar for failure to benefit from SET Cash COVID relief - Employees charge that hotel did not to pay over tax deductions to State

Western Bureau: Some displaced Iberostar employees in Rose Hall, St James, are angry with their employer, charging that they have been unable to benefit from the Government’s COVID-19 relief programme because of the hotel’s failure to pay over...




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Fear, grief grip west Kingston after children murdered

Tears flowed yesterday down the face of Donaree Anderson, cousin of 15-year-old Nyron Taylor, one of two children shot dead in west Kingston hours apart on Wednesday. Eight-year-old Toya Brown was the other child killed just days into the month...




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Obesity: raising price of sugary snacks may be more effective than soft drink tax




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20 questions that will define the NL Central

It was only five years ago that the Cardinals won the National League Central with only 90 wins. Heck, it was only 12 years ago that the Cubs won it with 85, and 13 that the Cardinals won it with 83. Point is: There have been times in recent baseball history that the NL Central was not exactly the toughest gauntlet in the sport. But in 2019, it looks like the scariest division in baseball.




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A refreshing look at personal development and success

At the outset, author Ivy Slater shares the existential crisis that spurred her to change careers. Slater’s psychosocial experience after the passing of her father and the stagnation she experienced at her printing business proved exhaustively...




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Effects of Pioglitazone on Glucose-Dependent Insulinotropic Polypeptide-Mediated Insulin Secretion and Adipocyte Receptor Expression in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

Incretin hormone dysregulation contributes to reduced insulin secretion and hyperglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Resistance to glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) action may occur through desensitization or downregulation of β-cell GIP receptors (GIP-R). Studies in rodents and cell lines show GIP-R expression can be regulated through peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor (PPAR) response elements (PPREs). Whether this occurs in humans is unknown. To test this, we conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of pioglitazone therapy on GIP-mediated insulin secretion and adipocyte GIP-R expression in subjects with well-controlled T2DM. Insulin sensitivity improved, but the insulinotropic effect of infused GIP was unchanged following 12 weeks of pioglitazone treatment. In parallel, we observed increased GIP-R mRNA expression in subcutaneous abdominal adipocytes from subjects treated with pioglitazone. Treatment of cultured human adipocytes with troglitazone increased PPAR binding to GIP-R PPREs. These results show PPAR agonists regulate GIP-R expression through PPREs in human adipocytes, but suggest this mechanism is not important for regulation of the insulinotropic effect of GIP in subjects with T2DM. Because GIP has antilipolytic and lipogenic effects in adipocytes, the increased GIP-R expression may mediate accretion of fat in patients with T2DM treated with PPAR agonists.




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Understanding Diabetic Neuropathy--From Subclinical Nerve Lesions to Severe Nerve Fiber Deficits: A Cross-Sectional Study in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Healthy Control Subjects

Studies on magnetic resonance neurography (MRN) in diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN) have found proximal sciatic nerve lesions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the functional relevance of sciatic nerve lesions in DPN, with the expectation of correlations with the impairment of large-fiber function. Sixty-one patients with type 2 diabetes (48 with and 13 without DPN) and 12 control subjects were enrolled and underwent MRN, quantitative sensory testing, and electrophysiological examinations. There were differences in mechanical detection (Aβ fibers) and mechanical pain (A fibers) but not in thermal pain and thermal detection clusters (C fibers) among the groups. Lesion load correlated with lower Aα-, Aβ-, and A-fiber but not with C-fiber function in all participants. Patients with lower function showed a higher load of nerve lesions than patients with elevated function or no measurable deficit despite apparent DPN. Longer diabetes duration was associated with higher lesion load in patients with DPN, suggesting that nerve lesions in DPN may accumulate over time and become clinically relevant once a critical amount of nerve fascicles is affected. Moreover, MRN is an objective method for determining lower function mainly in medium and large fibers in DPN.




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Addressing Resource Conflicts: Working Towards More Effective Resolution of Natural Resource Disputes

Invitation Only Research Event

26 June 2014 - 9:00am to 5:00pm

Chatham House, London

Disputes over resources are a persistent challenge to international peace and security. Natural resources (such as oil, natural gas, minerals, timber and water) are a major source of national income for many countries and, alongside land, are essential to the livelihoods of many millions of people. There is a growing recognition among researchers and decision-makers that in many fragile states disputes over these resources have fed into, and underpinned, violent conflict and instability. 

Although international engagement in national resource disputes is not always desirable or feasible, where it is necessary and possible to support, supplement (or even substitute) national dispute resolution processes it is important to think through the parameters of such action: Who gets involved? With what financial resources? When does an intervention begin? How do they act? 

This one-day roundtable will bring together around 30 experts from policy, academia and business to discuss these questions and more.

The event will be held under the Chatham House Rule. Attendance is by invitation only.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Owen Grafham

Manager, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
+44 (0)20 7957 5708




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Kenya's Emerging Oil and Gas Sector: Fostering Policy Frameworks for Effective Governance

Research Event

8 October 2014 - 12:00pm to 1:30pm

Chatham House, London

Event participants

Charles Wanguhu, Coordinator, Kenya CSO Platform on Oil and Gas
Ndanga Kamau, Oil and Gas Policy Adviser, Oxfam Kenya
John Ochola, Chairman, Kenya CSO Platform on Oil and Gas / EcoNews Africa
Simon Thompson, Chairman, Tullow Oil

ChairAlex Vines, Research Director, Area Studies and International Law; Head, Africa Programme, Chatham House 

In 2012, Kenya joined the swathe of East African countries with recent significant oil and gas discoveries. Long-established as a regional leader in terms of economic growth, foreign investment and technological innovation, Kenya's leaders are now assessing how to establish an effective policy framework to manage oil revenues while at the same time managing the expectations of its citizens.  

At this event, the panel will discuss how transparency and accountability can be strengthened as Kenya moves to become an oil-producing nation. This event will mark the UK launch of a report by the Kenyan Civil Society Platform on Oil and Gas, entitled Setting the Agenda for the Development of Kenya's Oil and Gas Resources.

LIVE STREAM: This event will be live streamed. The live stream will be made available at 12:00 BST on Wednesday 8 October 2014.

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION IS CLOSED.

Event attributes

Livestream

Christopher Vandome

Research Fellow, Africa Programme
+44 (0) 20 7314 3669




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Transatlantic Dialogue on Reducing Deforestation in Supply Chains of Agricultural Commodities

Invitation Only Research Event

23 October 2014 - 9:00am to 24 October 2014 - 5:00pm

Pew Charitable Trust Center, Washington DC

This transatlantic dialogue will bring together a number of stakeholders, focused on options for reducing deforestation in agricultural supply chains. Key questions will be asked such as: What are the current and projected patterns of supply and demand for key commodities, and their impacts on forests? Who are the key producers and what is their relative impact on forests? How are these patterns likely to change in the future? What are the key points of leverage in these supply chains? What is the scope of potential action by the US, the EU, and its member states?

The current status and future trends in the global production and trade in major agricultural commodities will also be examined, along with the key leverage points for influence. Global forest footprint of major agricultural commodities and deforestation hotspots will be discussed and key drivers of deforestation will be examined. Finally, the potential roles of government in reducing commodity-driven deforestation will be analysed to gain a better understanding of the potential for state action in the EU and the US contexts.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Event attributes

External event




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The Impact of Mining on Forests: Information Needs for Effective Policy Responses

Invitation Only Research Event

3 June 2015 - 9:00am to 6:00pm

Chatham House, London

While there is much anecdotal information about the impact of mining on forests, no comprehensive review of minerals as a forest risk commodity has yet been undertaken. Indications are that mining activities are an important driver of deforestation in many countries, and that the impact of mineral extraction on forest resources is likely to increase with growing global demand for minerals. 

This event will discuss the state of knowledge on the impact of mining on forests, identify the available policy tools aimed at supporting sustainable supply chains, and determine the data needs to facilitate improved monitoring, control and regulation of the sector. 

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Adelaide Glover

Digital Coordinator, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme




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Reducing Deforestation in Agricultural Commodity Supply Chains: Using Public Procurement Policy

2 September 2015

This paper explores the potential of using public procurement policy to promote the uptake of sustainable food products in order to reduce imports of agricultural products associated with deforestation.

 

Duncan Brack

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

20150827AgricultureDeforestationBrack.jpg

Workers sort cocoa fruits near the Mendoa Chocolates plant in the state of Bahia near Ilheus, Brazil. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • Procurement policy has been used effectively to exclude illegal and unsustainable timber from consumer-country markets.
  • As the public sector is a major purchaser of food and catering services for schools, nurseries, hospitals, care homes, canteens, prisons and the military, public procurement policies in this area clearly have the potential to promote the uptake of sustainable products not associated with deforestation.
  • Many public authorities, particularly at local and regional level, already have a procurement policy for food; in principle, criteria for sustainable production could be incorporated relatively easily.
  • Some products – particularly palm oil, cocoa, coffee and tea – are better suited than others to this approach; for all these products, voluntary certification initiatives currently under way could provide identification mechanisms on which procurement policies could rest.
  • Other commodities may not be as suited to procurement policy, and it may be more effective to use other regulations; this applies particularly to soy, for which biofuel regulations are likely to have a bigger impact.
  • In cases in which private-sector initiatives are under way to achieve 100 per cent sustainable imports (such a target has been set for palm oil in several countries), procurement policy may be unnecessary. In other cases, the adoption of a new procurement policy could serve as the spur to a private-sector initiative. 




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Agricultural Commodity Supply Chains: Trade, Consumption and Deforestation

28 January 2016

Private-sector commitments and government policies, a loss of support for biofuels, and health concerns over the consumption of palm oil and beef, are factors that may help to restrict the further expansion of agricultural land into forest areas.

Duncan Brack

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

Laura Wellesley

Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

Adelaide Glover, Project Coordinator, Forest Governance and Natural Resources

2016-01-28-agricultural-commodity-supply-chain.jpg

An employee arranges packages of instant ramen noodles a store in Seoul, South Korea. Photo via Getty Images.
  • Clearance of forests for agriculture is a major cause of deforestation worldwide; the three most significant commodities in this regard are palm oil, soy and beef, which between them accounted for an estimated 76 per cent of the deforestation associated with agriculture in 1990–2008. International markets are an important driver of demand, particularly for palm oil and soy.
  • Global production of palm oil has grown strongly for several decades, more than doubling over the period 2000–13. Indonesia and Malaysia between them account for more than 80 per cent of palm oil production, and are likely to continue to dominate world exports. The European Union (EU), India and China are the main consumers, importing almost 60 per cent of the market; EU demand is driven significantly by biofuel policy, while India and China use palm oil mainly as a cooking oil and in processed foods.
  • Global production of soybeans has roughly doubled since 2000, and the expansion of output has been particularly rapid in South America; Brazil and Argentina accounted for almost 50 per cent of global production in 2013. Overwhelmingly the main importer is China (which took 43 per cent of all soy imports in 2014), mainly for animal feed for its growing meat industry. The EU is the second largest importer, using soy for animal feed and biofuel.
  • In contrast, consumption and production of beef has grown only slowly. Major producers are the US, Brazil, the EU and China; principal exporters are Brazil, India, Australia and the US. The US and the EU are still major consumers, although – as in most developed countries – consumption is falling slightly; other significant consumers include Brazil, India, Pakistan and China. Russia and Japan are also significant importers.
  • Three main factors underlie the growth in both consumption and production of palm oil and soy: population growth; changing dietary preferences; and policy support for biofuels. The first two are just as relevant to beef. Continued growth in world population and the expansion of the global middle class, with accompanying higher consumption levels of processed food and meat, will continue to drive demand upwards – strongly for palm oil and soy, more weakly for beef. Given the difficulty of increasing yields, particularly in developing countries, the further expansion of agricultural land into forest areas is inevitable. None the less, three other factors may restrict this growth: the private-sector commitments and government policies that are being developed with the aim of decoupling agricultural production from deforestation; a loss of support for biofuels, most notably in the EU; and health concerns, particularly over the consumption of palm oil and beef.

 




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Vitamin C in Human Health and Disease: Effects, Mechanisms of Action, and New Guidance on Intake




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Appropriate Use Criteria for Imaging Evaluation of Biochemical Recurrence of Prostate Cancer After Definitive Primary Treatment




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Head-to-Head Comparison of 68Ga-PSMA-11 with 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT in Staging Prostate Cancer Using Histopathology and Immunohistochemical Analysis as a Reference Standard

18F-PSMA-1007 is a novel prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)–based radiopharmaceutical for imaging prostate cancer (PCa). The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of 18F-PSMA-1007 with 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT in the same patients presenting with newly diagnosed intermediate- or high-risk PCa. Methods: Sixteen patients with intermediate- or high-risk PCa underwent 18F-PSMA-1007 and 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT within 15 d. PET findings were compared between the 2 radiotracers and with reference-standard pathologic specimens obtained from radical prostatectomy. The Cohen -coefficient was used to assess the concordance between 18F-PSMA-1007 and 68Ga-PSMA-11 for detection of intraprostatic lesions. The McNemar test was used to assess agreement between intraprostatic PET/CT findings and histopathologic findings. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were reported for each radiotracer. SUVmax was measured for all lesions, and tumor-to-background activity was calculated. Areas under receiver-operating-characteristic curves were calculated for discriminating diseased from nondiseased prostate segments, and optimal SUV cutoffs were calculated using the Youden index for each radiotracer. Results: PSMA-avid lesions in the prostate were identified in all 16 patients with an almost perfect concordance between the 2 tracers ( ranged from 0.871 to 1). Aside from the dominant intraprostatic lesion, similarly detected by both radiotracers, a second less intense positive focus was detected in 4 patients only with 18F-PSMA-1007. Three of these secondary foci were confirmed as Gleason grade 3 lesions, whereas the fourth was shown on pathologic examination to represent chronic prostatitis. Conclusion: This pilot study showed that both 18F-PSMA-1007 and 68Ga-PSMA-11 identify all dominant prostatic lesions in patients with intermediate- or high-risk PCa at staging. 18F-PSMA-1007, however, may detect additional low-grade lesions of limited clinical relevance.




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Newsbriefs




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Congressional Briefing: Diagnostic Imaging and Alzheimer Disease




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Estimated population wide benefits and risks in China of lowering sodium through potassium enriched salt substitution: modelling study




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Occurrence, prevention, and management of the psychological effects of emerging virus outbreaks on healthcare workers: rapid review and meta-analysis




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Use of genetic variation to separate the effects of early and later life adiposity on disease risk: mendelian randomisation study




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Conrad George and André Sheckleford | Incorrect layoff procedures can lead to future liability

OP-CONTRIBUTION: EMPLOYMENT CONTRACTS The COVID-19 pandemic is hitting businesses and the economy in a manner perhaps not seen since the Second World War. This, of course, has affected the ability of employers to pay their employees. The COVID-19...




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Business Briefs

Branson Centre goes digital The Caribbean branch of Branson Centre of Entrepreneurship has shifted fully to online delivery of its services. This includes online training and support in three business development areas: finance, strategic...




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BCIC offers partial refund on April premiums

 British Caribbean Insurance Company Limited, BCIC, will refund a portion of April’s premium to holders of its public passenger vehicle, PPV, and Diamond Max private motor insurance next week. The move, which is expected to cost BCIC...




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Reflections on the Brexit Election

Invitation Only Research Event

6 December 2019 - 8:30am to 9:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Alistair Burt, Conservative Member of Parliament (1983-97 and 2001-19); Minister of State for the Middle East, UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office and Minister of State at the Department for UK International Development (2017-19)

On 12 December 2019, the United Kingdom will hold one of its most crucial elections in the 21st century. The result will have a direct impact on the Brexit process and will most likely determine the country’s future direction for years to come.  

Yet the final outcome is far from predictable. It seems quite certain that the 2019 election is unlikely to produce a clear two-party share of the vote as happened back in 2017. Public trust in politicians is low and party loyalty is looser than ever. Polls show that Brexit it overwhelmingly considered as the main issue among the electorate alongside a deep concern about the future of public services. This raises multiple questions: can the 2019 election represent a chance to unite the country and move on? Will cross-party identities of ‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’ translate to how people vote in the election? And what will the outcome mean for Brexit and the future of party politics in Britain? 

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Alina Lyadova

Europe Programme Coordinator




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Belarusians Left Facing COVID-19 Alone

16 April 2020

Ryhor Astapenia

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Anaïs Marin

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
The way the epidemic is being mismanaged creates a risk of political destabilisation and leaves the country exposed to external influence.

2020-04-16-Belarus-COVID-Football

Playing accordion in front of dummy football fans in Brest, Belarus as the country's championship continues despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Photo by SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images.

Since the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic, few countries have chosen to ignore social distancing recommendations. But, even among those states which have, the Belarusian official response to its epidemic remains unique.

President Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s statements that vodka, sauna and tractors are protecting Belarusians from coronavirus attracted amused attention in international media. Lukashenka also described other societies’ response to COVID-19 as ‘a massive psychosis’.

Although Lukashenka is notorious for his awkward style of public communication, the fact that Belarus is refusing to impose comprehensive confinement measures is of concern. Belarusians continue to work, play football and socialise.

Lukashenka, himself playing ice hockey in front of state cameras, claims it is the best way to stay healthy. Belarusian authorities clearly appear to be in denial – and this could have dire humanitarian consequences.

From denial to half measures

Belarus actually has one of the largest numbers of hospital beds in the world per 1,000 of the population. But in the absence of quarantine measures its health system, already crippled by corruption and embezzlement, is likely to be overwhelmed.

Patients being treated for pneumonia in hospitals have suggested medical staff are uninformed and inadequately equipped. It is claimed doctors are not reporting COVID-19 as the suspected cause of death, either through a lack of testing or for fear of reprisals.

Observers believe the real mortality rate is already well above official figures (40 deaths as of 16 April). Based on an Imperial College London model, between 15,000 and 32,000 people could die under the current mild confinement regime – and such a high death toll would hugely impact the country’s political stability. Citing personal data protection, the Ministry of Health has imposed a total news blackout; the only cluster officially acknowledged so far is the city of Vitsebsk.

Although specific Belarusian cities and some individuals started changing their approach – by extending school vacations or cancelling weddings – such measures remain half-hearted.

Clearly a major reason for such an apparently irresponsible reaction is that Belarus cannot afford a massive lockdown that would freeze its already underdeveloped economy and drive it deeper into recession. Unlike many other nations, Belarus lacks budgetary resources for a sizable stimulus package. But a delayed response might backfire on the economy.

Economic recession has been forecast to amount to at least 10% of GDP. For Lukashenka, who openly challenged conventional wisdom regarding the need for quarantine and isolation, such an economic downturn would harm his confidence rating in the eyes of Belarusian voters, mindful of the state’s mismanagement of the crisis. And it could create doubt within the ruling elite itself, with Lukashenka seeking re-election for a sixth mandate in late August.

Against this backdrop, a radicalization of the opposition-minded part of society is also to be expected, with greater reliance on social networks in the face of official secrecy and disinformation. The expected response of the regime is then likely to be pre-emptive repression. Evidence is emerging that law enforcement agencies have already stepped up judicial and paralegal harassment of dissenters, notably independent journalists and bloggers.

Russia’s initial reluctance to address the coronavirus crisis may also have influenced Belarus. Lukashenka and his administration often react to public health challenges by the Soviet rulebook, reminiscent of the Soviet authorities’ mismanagement of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.

Russia has unilaterally closed its borders with Belarus and, as bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, this casts further doubt on the viability of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. Pro-Russian media forecast Moscow will be unwilling to alleviate the expected socio-economic crisis, as it continues to reject Minsk’s demands regarding subsidised oil deliveries. Yet the Kremlin might use the crisis as an opportunity to resume its integrationist pressure on Belarus.

China, with which Belarus engaged in a seemingly privileged strategic partnership in the 2010s, was actually the first country to dispatch humanitarian aid to beef up Belarusian capacity to fight the virus.

But Minsk should not expect Beijing to rescue its economy and, unless it commits to more internal reforms, Belarus is not likely to receive much from the EU either. The regime has already applied to the IMF for emergency financial support, but conditions are attached and, even if successful, the funds would amount to no more than $900m.

The government’s decision to take only half measures so far is rooted in the hope COVID-19 is not as bad as foreign experts fear. But, unless the leadership acknowledges the public health crisis and mitigates its economic impact, COVID-19 will accelerate Belarus’s slide back into international self-isolation. If combined with a humanitarian crisis, this will put the Belarusian regime under considerable stress.

This crisis does risk a new ‘Chernobyl moment’ for the authorities, but the population could react more vocally this time. As volunteers self-organise to fight the epidemic, it might become more difficult for the authorities to say that it is efficient in running the country. But the bottom line is Belarus desperately needs money. Whoever steps up to support Belarus financially will also be able to heavily influence its politics.




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COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series: Outcomes of COP25 and What It Means for 2020

Invitation Only Research Event

22 January 2020 - 4:30pm to 6:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

HE Raffaele Trombetta, Italian Ambassador to the UK, Co-Host, COP 26
Archie Young, UK Lead Climate Negotiator, Cabinet Office 
Peter Betts, Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Department, Chatham House
Chair: Professor Tim Benton, Research Director, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House  

The UK will host the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) in November 2020 in Glasgow. In the run up, Chatham House is organizing a monthly briefing series targeted to:

  • The diplomatic service based in London, in particular, staff of the London embassies who are reporting on climate change issues.
  • Senior UK government civil servants, officials and politicians engaged in climate change.
  • Academics, experts, business representatives and NGOs.

The first briefing in the series focuses on the results from COP25 held in Madrid in December 2019 and what this means for 2020.

This briefings series offer an opportunity to discuss, in an informal setting, the most pressing and complex climate issues of the day with UK and international government officials and experts.

Johanna Tilkanen

Project Manager, Energy, Environment and Resources Department

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule




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COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series

In the run-up to COP26 in Glasgow, Chatham House is organizing monthly briefings about the UN climate negotiations and climate change more broadly. The events provide an excellent opportunity to discuss the most pressing and complex climate issues of the day with government officials, renowned experts and members of the London-based diplomatic community.

In 2021 the UK is hosting the 26th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, also known as COP26, in partnership with Italy. The meeting constitutes a particularly important COP, given its strong focus on raising climate ambition. It is expected that COP26 will be the largest conference the UK has ever hosted, with up to 200 world leaders attending the final weekend.
 
London is host to one of the world’s largest diplomatic communities, with over 180 embassies and 4000 diplomatic staff. In the run-up to COP26, Chatham House is organizing monthly briefings on key issues related to the COP negotiations and climate change more broadly. The events, which currently take the form of webinars due to COVID-19, are open to members of the London-based diplomatic community and representatives from the UK Government. Reports from the events are published on the event pages below.
  
Would you like to attend or learn more about the diplomatic briefings? Please contact Anna Aberg on AAberg@chathamhouse.org.

Department contact

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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Renewable Energy For Refugees (RE4R)

Chatham House is working with Practical Action and UNHCR on implementing the Renewable Energy for Refugees (RE4R) project in Rwanda and Jordan.

This project will be led by Practical Action and UNHCR and will deliver renewable energy investments through an innovative approach in humanitarian settings, working directly with refugees and host communities in Kigeme, Nyabiheke and Gihembe refugee camps in Rwanda and with urban refugees in Irbid in Jordan.

The project will provide access to affordable and sustainable sources of renewable energy, and improve the health, wellbeing and security of target populations.

As part of this programme, Chatham House will work on a series of research activities and outputs that look to disseminate and scale up the lessons-learnt and evidence-generated by the programme.

Access more of Chatham House's work on humanitarian energy through our Moving Energy Initiative microsite.

Department contact

Owen Grafham

Manager, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
+44 (0)20 7957 5708




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COP26 Diplomatic Briefing: Climate Ambition in Europe and its Potential Global Impact

17 February 2020 - 8:30am to 10:00am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Jacob Werksman, Principal Adviser to Directorate General for Climate Action, European Commission
Imke Lübbeke, Head of EU Climate and Energy Policy, WWF European Policy Office 
Simon Petrie, Head of International Climate Strategy - Europe, UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
Jen Austin, Policy Director, We Mean Business Coalition
Chair: Jill Duggan, Associate Fellow, Chatham House

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has declared that she wants Europe to become ‘the first climate-neutral continent by 2050’, and in December 2019, the Commission presented the European Green Deal in order to achieve this objective. However, even though greenhouse gas emissions from the EU have fallen by more than 20 per cent since 1990, the Union remains the third largest emitter in the world, after the United States and China.

What are the opportunities and challenges for raising climate ambition in Europe?  Will the EU increase its Nationally Determined Contribution and what impact might this have globally? How might Brexit affect climate action in the EU and the UK?  The second event in the Chatham House COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series will address these critical questions.

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series: Climate Change and National Security

Research Event

25 March 2020 - 9:00am to 10:30am

Event participants

Lieutenant General Richard Nugee, Departmental Lead for Climate Change and Sustainability in the UK Ministry of Defence
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, Vice Dean (Public Policy) Engineering Sciences at the University College London and Associate Fellow at Chatham House
Dr. Patricia Lewis, Research Director for Conflict, Science and Technology, and Director of the International Security Programme at Chatham House
Professor Yacob Mulugetta, Professor of Energy and Development Policy at the University College London
Chair: Glada Lahn, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House
Extreme weather, rising sea levels and a melting Arctic - the effects of climate change are posing an increasingly large threat to national security worldwide. Although the issue has gained traction within the international community in recent years, including within the UN Security Council, it is urgent that governments act more decisively to mitigate and respond to the threat, not least given that climate change is happening faster and in a more powerful way than originally anticipated.
 
The third event in the Chatham House COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series – 'Climate Change and National Security' - will analyze how climate change acts as a threat multiplier, fuelling instability and endangering economic, social and political systems across the globe. The briefing will also provide recommendations of what governments and other stakeholders should do to develop effective responses.
 

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series: Money Matters: Climate Finance and the COP

Research Event

20 April 2020 - 9:00am to 10:30am

Event participants

Tenzin Wangmo, Lead Negotiator of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group 
Mattias Frumerie, Director at the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs
Rachel Ward, Programme Director and Head of Policy at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change
Iseoluwa Akintunde, Mo Ibrahim Academy Fellow at Chatham House
Chair: Kirsty Hamilton, Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Finance plays a key role in enabling climate change mitigation and adaptation. It is also a contested issue in the UN climate negotiations. The fourth event in the Chatham House COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series will explore the politics of climate finance in the context of the COP, and provide a comprehensive update of the main climate finance-related negotiation items and processes. The topic is particularly timely given that the UK Government has made climate finance one of its top thematic priorities for COP26 and that 2020 constitutes the deadline for developed countries to mobilise USD 100 billion per year to support climate action in developing countries.

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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NHS increases efforts to recruit doctors from overseas




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Covid-19: Home testing programme across England aims to help define way out of lockdown




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Covid-19: Lack of capacity led to halting of community testing in March, admits deputy chief medical officer




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CRISPR-Cas12a has widespread off-target and dsDNA-nicking effects [DNA and Chromosomes]

Cas12a (Cpf1) is an RNA-guided endonuclease in the bacterial type V-A CRISPR-Cas anti-phage immune system that can be repurposed for genome editing. Cas12a can bind and cut dsDNA targets with high specificity in vivo, making it an ideal candidate for expanding the arsenal of enzymes used in precise genome editing. However, this reported high specificity contradicts Cas12a's natural role as an immune effector against rapidly evolving phages. Here, we employed high-throughput in vitro cleavage assays to determine and compare the native cleavage specificities and activities of three different natural Cas12a orthologs (FnCas12a, LbCas12a, and AsCas12a). Surprisingly, we observed pervasive sequence-specific nicking of randomized target libraries, with strong nicking of DNA sequences containing up to four mismatches in the Cas12a-targeted DNA-RNA hybrid sequences. We also found that these nicking and cleavage activities depend on mismatch type and position and vary with Cas12a ortholog and CRISPR RNA sequence. Our analysis further revealed robust nonspecific nicking of dsDNA when Cas12a is activated by binding to a target DNA. Together, our findings reveal that Cas12a has multiple nicking activities against dsDNA substrates and that these activities vary among different Cas12a orthologs.




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Twenty Five Years Later: Reflecting on the Immigration Act of 1990

A discussion marking the 25th anniversary of the 1990 Immigration Act, where experts examinine the history of the legislation, how it was accomplished politically, and the stakeholders and issues that were critical to its passage.




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Embarking on the Next Journey: Innovations in Predeparture Orientation Programs for Refugees

This MPI Europe webinar examines innovative ways to better design and implement predeparture orientation programs for resetttling refugees. The discussion features observations from a refugee who went through an orientation program before being resettled in the Netherlands, and a resettlement agency official in Norway.