That makes it a congressional red sweep and the question now is just how much of a majority will they command in the House? The latest NYT projections here show Republicans do have the needed 218 seats claimed for a majority. However, there are still 9 seats yet to be called.

There are some seats such as Iowa 1 and California 45, which are toss ups, that could go to a recount and take a longer time to settle due to the current margins. For some context, here is a list of the more competitive districts as a reference.

But even if you give those two to the Democrats, Republicans will at least snag Alaska 1 to end with 219 seats. That is the bare minimum that they should win with when all is said and done.

There was a bit of a wrestle after the US CPI report yesterday but eventually, the dollar once again reigned supreme. EUR/USD saw a break below the April low of 1.0601 and has now traded down to fresh lows for the year. As the greenback continues to run a rampage, it is starting to draw in a rather critical level for EUR/USD in the bigger picture:

As seen from the above, the pair has been sort of stuck within a range of 1.0500 to 1.1200 roughly since the start of 2023.

As such, there looks to be an inevitable pull towards the 1.0500 mark now as sellers have proven their mettle at each and every other test since the start of October trading. The most recent of course being the fall below the April low of 1.0601, as mentioned above.

Taking the technical backdrop above into consideration, it pretty much means we're reaching a very, very critical juncture in gauging the post-election dollar momentum.

A firm break below 1.0500 is not only one to set off any further declines in EUR/USD. But the spillover potential means that it is going to spur even further gains in the dollar as we look towards year-end.

There is certainly strong arguments for that, as Adam pointed out here. But are traders going overboard in frontrunning the potential for the Trump trade and tariffs? That's something to consider as well perhaps.

For now, the momentum trade is name of the game in FX. However, don't ignore the implications set out by key technical boundaries such as the one in the chart above. That will be vital in determining the strength and resolve of the dollar momentum we're seeing now.

The dollar continues to push higher in the post-election period and in the case of USD/JPY, that momentum is helped by higher yields as well. The pair has been on a tear since October trading, racing up from 143.00 all the way to touching 156.00 earlier today. The break above 155.00 yesterday is a crucial one, signifying another breach of a key technical/psychological level.

When it comes to USD/JPY, there's always something about big figure levels. And this is arguably no exception.

With buyers clearing the key daily moving averages and 150.00 mark last month, the focus has been drawn on the 155.00 mark since. And inevitably with Trump winning the election, we've finally gotten there today.

And having done so, we're into a bit of a pocket of space with little to no technical resistance all the way to 160.00 potentially.

It doesn't mean we'll get there overnight but it does present an attractive level for buyers to take aim at. Nonetheless, the pace of any further gains will of course be another thing to be mindful of though.

That might invite scrutiny from Japan officials to verbally intervene. As for any real intervention threat, it's going to be tough to fight the underlying market momentum in play currently. So, I wouldn't imagine Tokyo trying that out - at least for the time being.

The bond market is once again going to be a key driver to be mindful of when it comes to USD/JPY. But for now, the overall dollar bullishness is also helping to underpin the pair rather strongly. That especially when the greenback is starting to creep up on some key technical levels in the bigger picture, as seen here with EUR/USD.

The pullback in gold continues to play out since the post-election period. The precious metal is now down for a fifth straight day in what is already easily its worst weekly showing so far this year. It has more or less been a case of waiting for said pullback to reach some key technical levels on the charts. And we're just about there already in trading today.

The 100-day moving average (red line) is the key technical focus right now and that is seen at roughly $2,543. The last time gold actually had a brush against the key level was all the way back in February. And the last time that gold traded back below either that or its 200-day moving average (blue line) was all the way back in October last year.

That underscores the breathtaking momentum that has been in play for gold all through this year so far.

As such, this makes the 100-day moving average an even more important technical juncture now. A break there will not only signify a break in the bullish bias in gold. However, it could set off another wave of selling that leads to an even bigger pullback.

Traders love key levels like these and USD/JPY is a good example of that when it broke its own 100-day moving average back in late July as well. The drop there of course owed to a myriad of other factors but the technical consideration certainly exacerbated things. And it could also be the case for gold when we get there in the sessions ahead.

I'm still an advocate for gold in the bigger picture of things. However, I would say dip buyers will need to be patient to let this correction run its course before coming back in. From earlier this week: Gold pullback might prove to be timely for dip buyers

The US CPI report yesterday here provided some reason for a push and pull in markets but ultimately, the dollar settled higher as it continues its post-election momentum. It's tough to fight that especially with dollar bulls also seeking out key technical breaks on the charts. And the greenback is once again keeping a little firmer today:

EUR/USD is holding at its lowest levels this year after the break below the April low of 1.0601 overnight. Meanwhile, USD/JPY had a brief brush against 156.00 earlier as it eyes further gains alongside an uptick in Treasury yields.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD is closing in on its August low of 1.2665 while USD/CAD is up to its highest levels since 2020 in a push above 1.4000. It's all about the dollar as it rampages on in the post-election period.

Looking to the session ahead, there isn't anything on the agenda in Europe to shake up that sentiment. All eyes will once again fall on more US data later in the day to perhaps add to the mix. Otherwise, the euphoria from Trump trades is still very much permeating across broader markets with Bitcoin also hoping to firmly clear $90,000 since yesterday.

0800 GMT - Spain October final CPI figures1000 GMT - Eurozone Q3 GDP second estimate1000 GMT - Eurozone September industrial production

That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

• German DAX futures -0.1%
• UK FTSE futures -0.2%

This comes with S&P 500 futures also seen down by 0.2% currently. Wall Street had a mixed day but overall was little changed, as investors pumped the brakes on the post-election euphoria for the time being. In Europe, things are still muddy as the threat of Trump tariffs continue to cloud the bigger picture outlook for next year.

And that is thanks to Beijing disappointing markets once again with a failure to live up to stimulus announcements. It was the case right after the Golden Week holiday and it was the case again on Friday last week. With the drop today, the CSI 300 index closes down by 1.7% to post its lowest close this week.

It's been a rather back and forth last few days but the feeling is that there are hints of exhaustion when it comes to Chinese equities at the moment. That especially since Beijing has not followed up on the rallying momentum prior to the Golden Week holiday.

In the bigger picture, China is a very, very attractive opportunity as valuations are cheap and price levels are low at the moment. And that provides an alluring proposition for any investor, that is if you can ride this wave out. I'm definitely keeping an eye out but I'm not entirely convinced that this is where the turning point is, especially since local authorities have not delivered in recent weeks.

The technical breakout at the end of September is a good starting point but I fear that with a lack of convincing, China stocks might slip back into old habits and slide down again in the weeks ahead. The warning signs are definitely building to say the least: It's not a pretty picture in China

• Prior +1.5%
• HICP +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelim
• Prior +1.7%

Core annual inflation was seen at 2.5% on the month, up slightly from 2.4% in September. That just reaffirms a small bump in the works in the disinflation process. But given recent developments, the ECB will still feel comfortable in sticking with rate cuts for now.

Fundamental Overview

The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar.

The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.

The market is viewing all of this in light of the recent US election as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially keep inflation above target for longer, making the Fed’s job of bringing inflation back to target a bit harder.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY finally extended the rally into new highs helped by a hawkish comment from Fed’s Logan. There’s no strong technical resistance now at least until the 160.00 handle.

If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting a drop back into the 152.00 support.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a break below the major trendline.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add as from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better setup around the trendline, while the sellers are better to wait for a technical break lower instead of trying to catch the top. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

See the video below

Valhalla, Floki’s PlayToEarn Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game (MMORPG) blockchain game is proud to announce a partnership in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

On Nov. 13, Valhalla unveiled a partnership with Dubai's Mall of the Emirates, marking a milestone in its global outreach efforts.

The partnership will see Valhalla’s branding prominently displayed across 93 screens in the mall for a four-week campaign running from November 15 to December 12.

Mall of the Emirates, located in the heart of Dubai, is one of the world’s most prestigious shopping destinations. Since opening in 2005, it has become an iconic landmark, attracting millions of visitors each year. The mall sees daily traffic of approximately 111,500 people, making it a prime venue for Valhalla’s campaign to reach a diverse and international audience.

The mall’s strategic location on Sheikh Zayed Road, a prime area in Dubai, combined with its diverse visitor base, offers Valhalla an opportunity to engage both local and international audiences.

Spanning an area of 255,489 square meters, the multi-level mall boasts over 630 retail outlets, 80 luxury stores, and 250 flagship stores. It also features some of Dubai’s most popular attractions, including the indoor ski resort Ski Dubai, the Magic Planet entertainment center, and VOX Cinemas. The mall’s dining options, with over 100 restaurants and cafés, further enhance its appeal as a top destination for both residents and tourists.

The Campaign’s Goal

Valhalla is ramping up its presence in the UAE, a key market for crypto adoption.

Despite its smaller population, the UAE ranks as the third-largest crypto economy in the MENA region, with $34 billion in crypto transactions recorded between July 2023 and June 2024. This represents an impressive 42% year-on-year growth, far outpacing the MENA average of 11.73%, according to Chainalysis.

Dubai’s rapid evolution into a crypto hub has been fueled by initiatives like the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA), which offer crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks. This has drawn major players and startups, solidifying Dubai’s status as a global crypto leader.

Valhalla’s campaign at Mall of the Emirates aligns perfectly with this momentum. By showcasing its brand in one of Dubai’s busiest and most iconic locations, Floki aims to boost awareness and adoption of its ecosystem.

This campaign follows Floki’s recent four-week marketing initiative at WAFI Mall in Dubai, running from November 8 to December 5, where its branding appears across 18 digital screens. Together, these efforts are part of Floki’s larger strategy to dominate the Dubai crypto scene.

About Valhalla

Valhalla (https://valhalla.game/) is a blockchain-based MMORPG inspired by Norse mythology, offering players the chance to discover, tame, and battle with creatures called Veras. The game features a player-driven economy and a hexagonal battlefield designed for dynamic combat. Users can learn more at Valhalla.game.

About Floki

Floki is the people’s cryptocurrency and utility token of the Floki Ecosystem. Focused on utility, community, philanthropy, and strategic marketing, Floki is working toward becoming the world’s most recognized and used cryptocurrency. With over 490,000 holders globally, Floki has already established a strong brand presence.

Key players from the financial services industry are looking forward to the latest edition of the highly anticipated Finance Magnates London Summit (FMLS:24), taking place at the historic Old Billingsgate between 18-20 November, in the heart of the City.

Now in its 13th year, the summit is expected to bring together more than 3,500 attendees, over 150 speakers, and 120+ exhibitors from across the world. As one of the premier financial events on the calendar, FMLS:24 is where executives in fintech, online investing, crypto and payments go to connect.

Among the most notable firms signed up to attend is X Open Hub, a leading provider of liquidity services. The company has just been confirmed as an official exhibitor at the event, meaning it will have a prime position on the expo floor via its own dedicated exhibition stand.

Open for business in London

X Open Hub will be bringing its expert team of professionals along to the prestigious UK event, with representatives on hand to showcase the excellent range of innovative products and cutting-edge technologies available to potential clients from Booth 77.

Interested attendees are invited to visit the booth within this high-calibre setting, which serves as an ideal meeting point for meaningful interactions, personalised live product demonstrations, and potential networking opportunities. With its visible presence in London, the company not only reinforces its position as a top-tier liquidity provider but also signals its commitment to growth and expansion in both the UK and broader international markets.

Top provider of award-winning services

Alongside its attendance at FMLS:24, X Open Hub has been nominated for a prestigious industry award, with the firm on the shortlist to be crowned ‘Best B2B Liquidity Provider (Prime of Prime)’ at the London Summit Awards.

This latest nomination represents the latest in a long line of industry recognition the company has received over the years, underscoring its commitment to delivering high-quality liquidity solutions, while further solidifying its standing as a trusted partner in the financial services industry.

The voting round closes on 11 November, with the winners set to be announced at a special awards ceremony at the London Summit on 20 November. For those wishing to cast their vote for X Open Hub, please visit Finance Magnate’s website.

The go-to liquidity provider

With its extensive experience in the financial sector, built up over a number of years since its inception in 2013, X Open Hub has a track record for providing world-class trading technology to banks, brokers and startups.

The exhibition offers the perfect opportunity for interested parties to meet the team face-to-face and explore the latest market trends, strategies, and best practices for thriving in today’s ever-evolving financial landscape. Thanks to its mission of providing unmatched liquidity solutions designed to meet the needs of today’s trading environment, X Open Hub is a standout choice among its peers within the financial services industry. With deep order book execution and ultra-fast data feeds, the firm delivers not only reliable performance and seamless market access but also upholds full regulatory compliance with EMIR and MiFIR standards. Adding to this, its flexible offerings – such as rebates for spreads and book-share models – further enhance the value provided to clients. At FMLS:24, X Open Hub welcomes potential collaborators to explore strategic partnership opportunities designed to drive mutual growth and innovation. Visitors are encouraged to discuss customised liquidity solutions tailored to meet industry demands and engage directly with the X Open Hub team to discover their adaptable, high-performance offerings.

To schedule a meeting at the upcoming FMLS:24 event, please click here.

About X Open Hub

X Open Hub is a leading CFD liquidity provider, offering over 5,000 instruments. This includes more than 2,500 stocks and ETFs on 16 major exchanges worldwide, over 60 currency pairs, more than 50 cryptocurrencies across 9 exchanges, over 30 indices, and the most popular commodities. The company has 100+ partnerships in more than 25 countries. It also holds licences in multiple jurisdictions, including the FCA, CySEC, KNF, FSC, DFSA, FSCA and FSA, enabling it to provide compliant broker solutions with risk sharing. X Open Hub is dedicated to delivering tailor-made solutions that support clients in achieving their business ambitions.

Follow X Open Hub on its social media channels for live updates and exclusive content during the FMLS:24 event, including on LinkedIn and Facebook.

Fundamental Overview

The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar.

The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.

The market is viewing all of this in light of the recent US election as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially keep inflation above target for longer, making the Fed’s job of bringing inflation back to target a bit harder.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke through the recent low around the 0.6537 level and extended the drop into the 0.6460 level as the US Dollar restarted its run on stronger US data. The natural target should be around the 0.6362 level.

From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting a rally into the top of the yearly range around the 0.69 handle.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. If we were to get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting a bigger pullback into the major trendline.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much more we can add although we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 0.65 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to pile in for move lower, while the buyers will look for a break higher. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

• Prior +0.3%
• GDP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y second estimate
• Prior +0.6%

No changes to the initial estimates as this just reaffirms more modest growth in the euro area in Q3. But this is old news, as the focus is on the outlook next year with Trump tariffs set to come into the picture.

• Prior +1.8%; revised to +1.5%

Looking at the details, the drop here is largely driven by a decline in capital goods (-3.8%) and energy production (-1.5%). The former is seen declining back after a surge higher in August (+3.8%). The declines for the month are partially offset by increases in output for durable consumer goods (+0.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (+1.6%). The production for intermediate goods was flat on the month.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 20 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

• ECB: 34 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 145 bps

• BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 56 bps

• BoC: 33 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 95 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 40 bps

• RBNZ: 55 bps (80% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/20% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 170 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 13 bps (51% probability of 25 bps rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 44 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

• An 'activist' approach means to cut less until it is clear inflation persistence has been purged
• I would be ready to cut rates in bigger steps when inflation risks have gone

As mentioned, she's arguably the most hawkish member on the policy committee. So, these comments need to be taken with that in consideration. Her comments are also reflected by her bank rate vote last week here, as she was the only member to dissent against the rate cut decision.

• Fed will 'most likely' need more cuts but should 'proceed cautiously'
• If Fed cuts too far past neutral, inflation could re-acclerate
• Difficult to know how many Fed rate cuts may be needed, and how soon they need to happen
• Fed has made a great deal of progress in bringing inflation down
• Fed not quite back to price stability yet
• US economic activity is resilient
• Labor market cooling gradually but not weakening materially
• Sees upside risk to inflation, downside risk to employment, says financial conditions may pose biggest challenges for monetary policy
• If bond yields continue to rise, the Fed may need less-restrictive policy

Logan last spoke in late October and wasn't quite this hawkish. I think the Fed cuts in December but takes a pause after that and waits to see how things play out.

St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem is scheduled to speak at the top of the hour. Musalem is a voting member in 2025. Back on October 7, Musalem spoke and said:

• More rate cuts likely given economic outlook.
• Won't predict timing or size of future Fed easings.
• Personal rate outlook is above Fed’s median view.
• Costs of easing too much outweigh easing too little.
• Supported Fed’s decision last month to cut rates by 50 basis points.
• Policy patience has served Fed well.
• Cooler job market still consistent with strong economy.
• Expects inflation pressures to continue to abate.
• Expects inflation to converge to 2% over next couple of quarters.
• Financial conditions remain supportive of growth.
• Some economic activity slowed by rate policy, election uncertainty.

That was over a month ago. So how he weighs in now will be interesting given the backup in yields and other economic and other developments since that time

• Risks to the jobs market have remain unchanged or have fallen
• Fed may be on the 'last mile' to price stability, inflation expected to converge to 2% over the medium term
• Monetary policy well posited, Fed can 'judiciously and patiently' judge income data to decide on further rate cuts
• Strong economy on track for a 'solid' fourth quarter
• Growth is broad-balanced and driven by consumption, income growth, productivity, supportive financial conditions and wealth effects
• Recent high productivity could prove durably structural but that remains uncertain
• Core inflation remain elevated
• Pressure in services industries slowly abating

This is the third Fed official who has floated some more-hawkish hints. It's hardly a signal of a pause in December but early 2025 is going to be interesting. There are meetings in January, March and May. Assuming a cut in Dec, there is one cut fully priced in for that period (and a smidge more).

That sounds about right based on the comments and data but that's going to swing based on the next set of numbers and beyond.

• Rate cuts to date are an acknowledgement of growing confidence that inflation is on the path to 2% goal
• Hope productivity growth can outrun the effects of slowing population growth
• Won't let enthusiasm over rising productivity get ahead of data or commitment to reaching Fed goals

There isn't much of a hint on anything here.

More hawkish comments from the St Louis Fed President

• Inflation data is also stronger but has not yet changed view that policy is on a path to neutral
• There is likely space for a gradual easing of policy towards neutral rate
• Stronger data likely pushing Treasury yields higher
• Too soon to understand new administration
• Rising bond yields also offer a sense of higher inflation risk and some sense the Fed may not cut as much

UBS remain upbeat on further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to come. Analysts at the bank acknowledge heightened concerns about inflation in the market, and also trimmed market pricing for cuts ahead.

Ahead of Wednesday's CPI report (Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 13 Nov: US CPI comes out as expected. USD continues rise) UBS points:

• Economic data signals a stronger-than-expected economy. Concerns about inflation remain

• Market expectations lean towards a slower pace of Fed rate cuts

• Fed officials view the current rate as restrictive but are balancing employment and inflation goals. A major inflation surprise would be required to shift policy outlooks.

• The Fed is likely to continue rate cuts, with a potential 25 basis point cut in December and further easing expected in 2025.

And, the data result was not enough to dissuade analysts at UBS from expecting further cuts from the FOMC ahead, referring to the in line CPI print not changing the underlying fundamentals and economy narrative.

***

The latest from FedWatch shows a solid expectation for a 25bp cut on December 18:

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock

• bond markets pretty well behaved globally
• bond markets reflecting increasing government debt
• think we are restrictive enough, will stay there until confident on inflation

More:

• recent inflation had both supply- and deand-sdie components
• aim is to lower inflation
• prices not going back to pre-covid level, that would be deflation and not going to have that

2100 GMT / 1600 US Eastern time on Thursday, November 14, 2024:

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech at the Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner, Mansion House

We last heard from Bailey a week ago:

• BOE governor Bailey: I will not specify what gradual means for rate cuts
• BOE governor Bailey: We do not have a specific equilibrium level of interest rate in mind
• BOE governor Bailey: We still need to see services inflation to come down more broadly

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a speech on his economic outlook, followed by a question and answer session.

• Powell participates in "Global Perspectives" conversation before event hosted by the Dallas Regional Chamber, World Affairs Council of DFW and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
• @ 2000 GMT / 1500 US Eastern time

While the Fed seems committed to a December rate cut not all signs in the CPI data on Wednesday were encouraging.

0830 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time - Remarks by European Central Bank's vice president Luis de Guindos at 31 Encuentro del Sector Financiero organised by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid, Spain

1830 GMT / 1330 US Eastern time - Participation by ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel in policy panel "Reassessing Policy Tools for Current and Future Challenges" at 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference "Rethinking the Policy Toolkit in a Turbulent Global Economy" in Washington, DC

1900 GMT / 1400 Remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde at Choiseul Sovereignty Awards 2024 ceremony

I posted yesterday on the prospect of deeper than expected ECB rate cuts yet to come:

• ECB Interest Rate Forecast: Deutsche Bank's 7 reasons for projecting a lower terminal rate

Meanwhile, EUR is struggling near a one-year low:

Justin had the news from the People's Bank of China here on Monday:

• PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level

And on Wednesday we saw the Bank trying to support CNY at the reference rate setting:

• PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that's what are seeing

And again today:

• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1966 (vs. estimate at 7.2326)

Offshore yuan may have seen the memo but its not paying it much heed:

The PBoC supported the CNY through the last bout of USD/CNY super-strength. They'll be doing the same again this time around, wary of capital outflow if they let the yuan drift too much lower. They'll be hoping US inflation doesn't take off higher and the Fed pauses ... or reverses.

Mann spoke Wednesday:

• BOE's Mann: I describe myself as an 'activist' rather than a 'gradualist' on rates
• BOE's Mann: Inflation has definitely not been vanquished

Mann was the sole dissent at the previous BoE meeting, voting to keep the Bank rate on hold.

Speaking again at 1300 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time:

• at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference

Also on the speaker circuit is Governor Bailey:

• GBP traders heads up - Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking late Thursday

The data is here from earlier:

• Australian October unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected)
• AUD/USD little changed after the October employment report showed a steady jobless rate
  • (ps. AUD/USD has slid a little since this post, broadly stronger USD the culprit)

Westpac with the recap, in brief:

Australian labour market remains in relatively solid health

• employment growth slowing broadly in line with population growth
• average hours holding steady
• few signs that labour demand is capitulating to an extent that warrants concern
• labour market conditions remain somewhat tight ... this is not translating to stronger wage inflation pressures
• On balance, today’s update will see the RBA continue to remain focused on the dynamics around underlying inflation.

***

Speaking of the RBA, we heard from Bullock earlier, not dovish:

• RBA Bullock says rates are restrictive enough, staying there until confident on inflation

***

AUD/USD update:

Times below are GBT / US Eastern time:

1400 / 0900 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy in fireside chat before the Real Estate Roundtable

1500 / 1000 Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on "Central Bank Independence and Economic Outlook" before the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin American Chapter of the Econometric Society 2024 Meeting

2000 / 1500 Powell, as already noted

2115 / 1615 Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks before the "Intermediating Impact: Making Missing Markets" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

As head of the NY Fed Williams is vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and has a permanent vote at the table. .

Non policy-related comments.

• Inflation has come down quite a lot
• Recent data on prices are heading towards our 2% goal
• If inflation converges towards our goal, then monetary policy will respond accordingly

This just reaffirms their current stance and market pricing for a rate cut in December. The question now is, how much will the ECB move by? The odds of a 25 bps rate cut are at ~63% with the remainder pinned to a 50 bps move instead.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Commercial Changes / Commercial viability

Unexpected increase in consumer demand

NEW YORK (Sept. 8, 2017) – Two CPA.com staffers have been named to CPA Practice Advisor’s Top 20 Under 40 Superstars list, which the trade publication said is composed of “young leaders helping advance the profession through their roles in technology, education, consulting and firm development.”

Representing CPA.com on the list are Samantha Mansfield, the company’s director of professional development and community, and Kalil Merhib, director of sales. Mansfield is a driving force behind the Digital CPA Conference and the curriculum and training it offers to firms, including the recently launched Client Accounting Advisory Services (CAAS) certificate and CPA.com’s popular CAAS workshops. Merhib’s key responsibilities include rollout of the RIVIO Clearinghouse, a private company financial information hub jointly developed by CPA.com and Confirmation.com, and working with firms across the country in building effective strategies for outsourced accounting practices.

“This year’s 40 Under 40 and 20 Under 40 honorees are visibly and incrementally changing the accounting profession through their exemplary leadership, their innovative thinking, their collaborative efforts guaranteed to provide unity to the profession across the generations, and their community outreach which extends the visibility of the profession outside the workplace” Gail Perry, CPA Practice Advisor’s editor-in-chief, wrote in an article announcing the winners.

“It’s a great honor for CPA.com to have two employees on this list,” said Erik Asgeirsson, president and CEO of CPA.com. “We’re grateful to see validation of our staff’s hard work in helping CPA firms embrace change and thrive.”

The full list of winners can be found on CPA Practice Advisor’s website.

About CPA.com

CPA.com offers a growing list of products and services for practice management, client advisory services and professional development. The company has established itself as a thought leader on cloud technology and has been a driving force around the reemergence of virtual CFO/controller services by firms. The RIVIO Clearinghouse, a joint venture between CPA.com and Confirmation.com, is an online financial document clearinghouse that enables private businesses to exchange key financial information with lenders and investors.

CPA.com is a subsidiary of the American Institute of CPAs, the world’s largest member body representing the CPA profession. For more information, visit CPA.com.

Associations Plan Joint Effort to Advance Blockchain Technology for Accounting Profession

NEW YORK (Oct. 23, 2017) – The American Institute of CPAs (AICPA) and Wall Street Blockchain Alliance (WSBA), a leading nonprofit trade association promoting the comprehensive adoption of blockchain technology across global markets, today announced plans to work together to define the impact of blockchain technology for the accounting profession and advance the interests of both the public and profession in this area.

As part of this collaboration, the AICPA – through its technology arm, CPA.com – will administer the WSBA’s working group on tax and accounting, a focal point for advocacy and education on blockchain adoption within the profession. Other existing WSBA working groups include research and innovation, legal, and technology and product. The working group model is designed to provide a forum for experts to share information, guide advocacy and technical efforts and create broader educational opportunities—such as webcasts, roundtables and other content—to address issues arising from the adoption of blockchain, distributed ledgers and smart contract technologies.

“The accounting profession is built on confirmation and verification, and that’s what blockchain is all about,” said AICPA President and CEO Barry C. Melancon, CPA, CGMA. “This technology can have a profound impact on accounting and finance going forward, and it’s important we make sure that its adoption proceeds in a way that’s in the best interest of the public and our financial markets. Our working relationship with the WSBA, combined with our expanded global reach through the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, will help further that goal.”

The collaboration was announced at the fall meeting of the AICPA’s governing Council in San Antonio, Tex.

“The WSBA is very pleased to be collaborating with the AICPA and CPA.com to guide the evolution of the global accounting profession in a future with blockchain technology,” said Ron Quaranta, chairman of the WSBA. “We look forward to working together to advance the world of accountancy and its use of blockchain, as accountants become integral participants in the adoption of this innovative technology for global markets.”

As a first step in collaboration, the AICPA will be part of an accounting-related panel at the WSBA’s Blockchain for Wall Street education day on Nov. 14, 2017.

“Blockchain is one of several innovations that are reshaping the accounting profession,” said Erik Asgeirsson, president and CEO of CPA.com, one of the participants in the upcoming panel. “Our role with the WSBA working group is to guide and speed the use of blockchain technology as it applies to the core areas of an accounting practice.”

About the Wall Street Blockchain Alliance

The Wall Street Blockchain Alliance (WSBA) is an industry leading 501(c)(6) non-profit trade association created for financial market professionals, by financial market professionals. Its mission is to guide and promote comprehensive adoption of blockchain and distributed ledger technology across global financial markets.

For information about the WSBA, including membership, visit www.wsba.co or email to info@wsba.co.

About the American Institute of CPAs

The American Institute of CPAs (AICPA) is the world’s largest member association representing the CPA profession, with more than 418,000 members in 143 countries, and a history of serving the public interest since 1887. AICPA members represent many areas of practice, including business and industry, public practice, government, education and consulting. The AICPA sets ethical standards for its members and U.S. auditing standards for private companies, nonprofit organizations, federal, state and local governments. It develops and grades the Uniform CPA Examination, offers specialized credentials, builds the pipeline of future talent and drives professional competency development to advance the vitality, relevance and quality of the profession.

The AICPA maintains offices in New York, Washington, DC, Durham, NC, and Ewing, NJ.

Media representatives are invited to visit the AICPA Press Center at www.aicpa.org/press.

About the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants

The Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (the Association) is the most influential body of professional accountants, combining the strengths of the American Institute of CPAs (AICPA) and The Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) to power opportunity, trust and prosperity for people, businesses and economies worldwide. It represents 650,000 members and students in public and management accounting and advocates for the public interest and business sustainability on current and emerging issues. With broad reach, rigor and resources, the Association advances the reputation, employability and quality of CPAs, CGMAs and accounting and finance professionals globally.

Bill.com and CPA.com have expanded their Accountant Partner Program. The program offers services, resources and technology to help accounting firms solve bill payment challenges for their clients.

The program has been updated to offer services tailored to the needs of large firms. Enhancements include dedicated Bill.com implementers for client portfolios, educational and training resources, and Bill.com accountant-specific features.

The upgrades come in response to a 2017 Bill Payment Trends Survey from Bill.com and CPA.com, which found 77 percent of large accounting firms wish their clients would eliminate paper checks, 75 percent recommend their clients pay their bills online, yet only 25 percent require clients to use a specific solution for digital bill payment. According to Bill.com, this disconnect illustrates an opportunity for client accounting services to be more efficient and demonstrate more value to clients.

The Bill.com Accountant Partner Program now offers:

● Dedicated Bill.com implementation consulting and support for client adoption, including implementers experienced with bill payment in large accounting firms; and

● New features for the Bill.com Accountant Console, a portal that helps firms manage client bill payments. Firms can add and remove staff from multiple clients at once, assign customer roles and permissions, and create reports on billing and system access.

These additions join existing educational resources Bill.com already offers to small and midsize accounting firms.

“The enhanced Accountant Partner Program allows greater collaboration between Bill.com, CPA.com, and accounting firms at every stage of client accounting services,” said Michael Cerami, CPA.com’s vice president of strategic alliances and business development, in a statement. “Whether a firm is targeting prospective or existing clients, the program delivers the tools and resources necessary for firm-wide adoption of digital bill payments.”

The Accountant Partner Program is available for all Bill.com clients. To learn more, visit https://www.bill.com/for-accountants/.

https://www.cpa.com/system/files/cpa/infographics/top-challenges-facing-firms-performing-pcr-services-onpoint-cpacom_0.pdf

https://www.cpa.com/system/files/cpa/infographics/bdcinternationalpayments_infographic.pdf

The main objective of this OSCE project is to create evidence including in the context of conflict/crisis  to be used in the long term for improved programming and policy-making.

The contractor will be expected to undertake all aspects of work relating to the survey and additional qualitative research, including:

• pre-test/pilot study of the new conflict module;
• development of country/area specific research tools;
• qualitative key expert interviews and focus group discussions;
• interviewer selection (female interviewers only);
• interviewer training;
• random selection of respondents;
• questionnaire finalisation and translation of fieldwork and interviewer training materials;
• all fieldwork/data collection;
• data entry and processing;
• data analysis and drafting several thematic and regional reports.

The data will be collected through the use of structured, quantitative survey interviews and additional key expert interviews and focus group discussions. The survey interviews will be carried out face-to-face in each country/area by female interviewers who have completed in-depth, in-person training dedicated to the topic of the survey.

The interviews will be conducted using a standardised questionnaire already developed. Part of the contract will be testing revisions on this questionnaire and finalizing it.

The required net sample size is a minimum of 1500 women per country/area using a strict random (probability) sample.

The Contractor will be responsible for ensuring the quality, consistency and timeliness of work carried out in each country/area selected to take part in the study. The consistency of the methods and procedures applied in the various countries/areas and strict compliance with the detailed methodology of the survey needs to be ensured by the Contractor. The foreseen total duration of the assignment is 15 months.

Related Stories

• Implementation of the Project “Promoting awareness-raising tools on combating sexual exploitation through internet (social theatre) (2016)”
• Provision of Printing and related Services for the OSCE
• Provision of IT Security Consulting Services on IT Information Security Incident Response

For more details please see attached the Request for pre-qualification.

Related Stories

• Life-Cycle Support and Technical Consultative Services for the OSCE Integrated Notification Application (INA) Software
• Request for pre-qualification in relation to the planned tender for the provision of Life-Cycle Support and Technical Consultative Services for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Conflict Prevention Centre (CPC) Integrated Not
• Selection of Microsoft-designated Large Account Reseller (LAR) for provision of Microsoft Software and Related Services

mobile voice and data services to the OSCE centre in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

Related Stories

• Provision of conference services for the OSCE events at 3 star venues on the Northern shore of Issyk-Kul Lake, KR
• Provision of conference services for the OSCE events at the 4 or 3+ star venues on the Northern shore of Issyk-Kul lake
• Provision of IT Security Consulting Services on IT Information Security Incident Response