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Fuhlbohm family history : a collection of memorabilia of our ancestors and families in Germany, USA, and Australia / by Oscar Fuhlbohm.

Fuhlbohm (Family)




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From alms house to first nation : a story of my ancestors in South Australia : a Sherwell family story / by Pamela Coad (nee Sherwell).

Sherwell (Family)




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Austin-Area District Looks for Digital/Blended Learning Program; Baltimore Seeks High School Literacy Program

The Round Rock Independent School District in Texas is looking for a digital curriculum and blended learning program. Baltimore is looking for a comprehensive high school literacy program.

The post Austin-Area District Looks for Digital/Blended Learning Program; Baltimore Seeks High School Literacy Program appeared first on Market Brief.



  • Purchasing Alert
  • Curriculum / Digital Curriculum
  • Educational Technology/Ed-Tech
  • Learning Management / Student Information Systems
  • Procurement / Purchasing / RFPs

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Arthur Leeman Fulton WWI diary, 1 January - 6 August 1916




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Item 04: Notebook of Colonel Alfred Hobart Sturdee, 8 August 1914 to 25 February 1918




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Item 08: A Logg [Log] Book of the proceedings on Board His Majesty's Ship Swallow, Captain Philip Carteret Commander Commencing from the 20th August 1766 and Ending [21st May 1768]




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Item 10: Log book of the Swallow from 22 August 1767 to 4 June 1768 / by Philip Carteret




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Box 3: Children's book illustrations by various artists, Peg Maltby and Dorothy Wall, , ca. 1932-1975




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Box 4: Children's book illustrations by various artists, Dorothy Wall, ca. 1932




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Box 6: Children's book illustrations by various artists, Dorothy Wall and Noela Young, ca. 1932-1964




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Volume 24 Item 04: William Thomas Manners and customs of Aborigines - Miscellaneous scraps, ca. 1858




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Sydney in 1848 : illustrated by copper-plate engravings of its principal streets, public buildings, churches, chapels, etc. / from drawings by Joseph Fowles.




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Federal watchdog finds 'reasonable grounds to believe' vaccine doctor's ouster was retaliation, lawyers say

The Office of Special Counsel is recommending that ousted vaccine official Dr. Rick Bright be reinstated while it investigates his case, his lawyers announced Friday.Bright while leading coronavirus vaccine development was recently removed from his position as the director of the Department of Health and Human Services' Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, and he alleges it was because he insisted congressional funding not go toward "drugs, vaccines, and other technologies that lack scientific merit" and limited the "broad use" of hydroxychloroquine after it was touted by President Trump. In a whistleblower complaint, he alleged "cronyism" at HHS. He has also alleged he was "pressured to ignore or dismiss expert scientific recommendations and instead to award lucrative contracts based on political connections."On Friday, Bright's lawyers said that the Office of Special Counsel has determined there are "reasonable grounds to believe" his firing was retaliation, The New York Times reports. The federal watchdog also recommended he be reinstated for 45 days to give the office "sufficient time to complete its investigation of Bright's allegations," CNN reports. The decision on whether to do so falls on Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, and Office of Special Counsel recommendations are "not binding," the Times notes. More stories from theweek.com Outed CIA agent Valerie Plame is running for Congress, and her launch video looks like a spy movie trailer 7 scathing cartoons about America's rush to reopen Trump says he couldn't have exposed WWII vets to COVID-19 because the wind was blowing the wrong way





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U.S. chief justice puts hold on disclosure of Russia investigation materials

U.S. Chief Justice John Roberts on Friday put a temporary hold on the disclosure to a Democratic-led House of Representatives committee of grand jury material redacted from former Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report on Russian interference in the 2016 election. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled in March that the materials had to be disclosed to the House Judiciary Committee and refused to put that decision on hold. The appeals court said the materials had to be handed over by May 11 if the Supreme Court did not intervene.





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As Trump returns to the road, some Democrats want to bust Biden out of his basement

While President Donald Trump traveled to the battleground state of Arizona this week, his Democratic opponent for the White House, Joe Biden, campaigned from his basement as he has done throughout the coronavirus pandemic. The freeze on in-person campaigning during the outbreak has had an upside for Biden, giving the former vice president more time to court donors and shielding him from on-the-trail gaffes. "I personally would like to see him out more because he's in his element when he's meeting people," said Tom Sacks-Wilner, a fundraiser for Biden who is on the campaign's finance committee.





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A person was struck and killed by a Southwest plane as it landed on the runway at Austin international airport

Austin-Bergstrom International Airport said it was "aware of an individual that was struck and killed on runway 17-R by a landing aircraft."





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A New Bayesian Approach to Robustness Against Outliers in Linear Regression

Philippe Gagnon, Alain Desgagné, Mylène Bédard.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 15, Number 2, 389--414.

Abstract:
Linear regression is ubiquitous in statistical analysis. It is well understood that conflicting sources of information may contaminate the inference when the classical normality of errors is assumed. The contamination caused by the light normal tails follows from an undesirable effect: the posterior concentrates in an area in between the different sources with a large enough scaling to incorporate them all. The theory of conflict resolution in Bayesian statistics (O’Hagan and Pericchi (2012)) recommends to address this problem by limiting the impact of outliers to obtain conclusions consistent with the bulk of the data. In this paper, we propose a model with super heavy-tailed errors to achieve this. We prove that it is wholly robust, meaning that the impact of outliers gradually vanishes as they move further and further away from the general trend. The super heavy-tailed density is similar to the normal outside of the tails, which gives rise to an efficient estimation procedure. In addition, estimates are easily computed. This is highlighted via a detailed user guide, where all steps are explained through a simulated case study. The performance is shown using simulation. All required code is given.




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Hierarchical Normalized Completely Random Measures for Robust Graphical Modeling

Andrea Cremaschi, Raffaele Argiento, Katherine Shoemaker, Christine Peterson, Marina Vannucci.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 4, 1271--1301.

Abstract:
Gaussian graphical models are useful tools for exploring network structures in multivariate normal data. In this paper we are interested in situations where data show departures from Gaussianity, therefore requiring alternative modeling distributions. The multivariate $t$ -distribution, obtained by dividing each component of the data vector by a gamma random variable, is a straightforward generalization to accommodate deviations from normality such as heavy tails. Since different groups of variables may be contaminated to a different extent, Finegold and Drton (2014) introduced the Dirichlet $t$ -distribution, where the divisors are clustered using a Dirichlet process. In this work, we consider a more general class of nonparametric distributions as the prior on the divisor terms, namely the class of normalized completely random measures (NormCRMs). To improve the effectiveness of the clustering, we propose modeling the dependence among the divisors through a nonparametric hierarchical structure, which allows for the sharing of parameters across the samples in the data set. This desirable feature enables us to cluster together different components of multivariate data in a parsimonious way. We demonstrate through simulations that this approach provides accurate graphical model inference, and apply it to a case study examining the dependence structure in radiomics data derived from The Cancer Imaging Atlas.




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Jointly Robust Prior for Gaussian Stochastic Process in Emulation, Calibration and Variable Selection

Mengyang Gu.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 877--905.

Abstract:
Gaussian stochastic process (GaSP) has been widely used in two fundamental problems in uncertainty quantification, namely the emulation and calibration of mathematical models. Some objective priors, such as the reference prior, are studied in the context of emulating (approximating) computationally expensive mathematical models. In this work, we introduce a new class of priors, called the jointly robust prior, for both the emulation and calibration. This prior is designed to maintain various advantages from the reference prior. In emulation, the jointly robust prior has an appropriate tail decay rate as the reference prior, and is computationally simpler than the reference prior in parameter estimation. Moreover, the marginal posterior mode estimation with the jointly robust prior can separate the influential and inert inputs in mathematical models, while the reference prior does not have this property. We establish the posterior propriety for a large class of priors in calibration, including the reference prior and jointly robust prior in general scenarios, but the jointly robust prior is preferred because the calibrated mathematical model typically predicts the reality well. The jointly robust prior is used as the default prior in two new R packages, called “RobustGaSP” and “RobustCalibration”, available on CRAN for emulation and calibration, respectively.




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High-Dimensional Confounding Adjustment Using Continuous Spike and Slab Priors

Joseph Antonelli, Giovanni Parmigiani, Francesca Dominici.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 825--848.

Abstract:
In observational studies, estimation of a causal effect of a treatment on an outcome relies on proper adjustment for confounding. If the number of the potential confounders ( $p$ ) is larger than the number of observations ( $n$ ), then direct control for all potential confounders is infeasible. Existing approaches for dimension reduction and penalization are generally aimed at predicting the outcome, and are less suited for estimation of causal effects. Under standard penalization approaches (e.g. Lasso), if a variable $X_{j}$ is strongly associated with the treatment $T$ but weakly with the outcome $Y$ , the coefficient $eta_{j}$ will be shrunk towards zero thus leading to confounding bias. Under the assumption of a linear model for the outcome and sparsity, we propose continuous spike and slab priors on the regression coefficients $eta_{j}$ corresponding to the potential confounders $X_{j}$ . Specifically, we introduce a prior distribution that does not heavily shrink to zero the coefficients ( $eta_{j}$ s) of the $X_{j}$ s that are strongly associated with $T$ but weakly associated with $Y$ . We compare our proposed approach to several state of the art methods proposed in the literature. Our proposed approach has the following features: 1) it reduces confounding bias in high dimensional settings; 2) it shrinks towards zero coefficients of instrumental variables; and 3) it achieves good coverages even in small sample sizes. We apply our approach to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data to estimate the causal effects of persistent pesticide exposure on triglyceride levels.




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Comment: “Models as Approximations I: Consequences Illustrated with Linear Regression” by A. Buja, R. Berk, L. Brown, E. George, E. Pitkin, L. Zhan and K. Zhang

Roderick J. Little.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 4, 580--583.




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Models as Approximations I: Consequences Illustrated with Linear Regression

Andreas Buja, Lawrence Brown, Richard Berk, Edward George, Emil Pitkin, Mikhail Traskin, Kai Zhang, Linda Zhao.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 4, 523--544.

Abstract:
In the early 1980s, Halbert White inaugurated a “model-robust” form of statistical inference based on the “sandwich estimator” of standard error. This estimator is known to be “heteroskedasticity-consistent,” but it is less well known to be “nonlinearity-consistent” as well. Nonlinearity, however, raises fundamental issues because in its presence regressors are not ancillary, hence cannot be treated as fixed. The consequences are deep: (1) population slopes need to be reinterpreted as statistical functionals obtained from OLS fits to largely arbitrary joint ${x extrm{-}y}$ distributions; (2) the meaning of slope parameters needs to be rethought; (3) the regressor distribution affects the slope parameters; (4) randomness of the regressors becomes a source of sampling variability in slope estimates of order $1/sqrt{N}$; (5) inference needs to be based on model-robust standard errors, including sandwich estimators or the ${x extrm{-}y}$ bootstrap. In theory, model-robust and model-trusting standard errors can deviate by arbitrary magnitudes either way. In practice, significant deviations between them can be detected with a diagnostic test.




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The Importance of Being Clustered: Uncluttering the Trends of Statistics from 1970 to 2015

Laura Anderlucci, Angela Montanari, Cinzia Viroli.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 280--300.

Abstract:
In this paper, we retrace the recent history of statistics by analyzing all the papers published in five prestigious statistical journals since 1970, namely: The Annals of Statistics , Biometrika , Journal of the American Statistical Association , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B and Statistical Science . The aim is to construct a kind of “taxonomy” of the statistical papers by organizing and clustering them in main themes. In this sense being identified in a cluster means being important enough to be uncluttered in the vast and interconnected world of the statistical research. Since the main statistical research topics naturally born, evolve or die during time, we will also develop a dynamic clustering strategy, where a group in a time period is allowed to migrate or to merge into different groups in the following one. Results show that statistics is a very dynamic and evolving science, stimulated by the rise of new research questions and types of data.




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If you must smoke don't exhale / design : Biman Mullick.

London (33 Stillness Rd, London, SE23 1NG) : Cleanair, Campaign for a Smoke-free Environment, [198-?]




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If you must smoke don't exhale / Biman Mullick.

London : Cleanair, [1988?]




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The hidden holocaust.

[London?], [199-?]




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Jennifer Lopez Just Stepped Out in These Glittery Leggings (Again)—and We Found Them on Sale

They’re already going out of stock.




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Amazon Just Launched an Exclusive Clothing Collection Full of Warm and Comfy Basics Under $45

The womenswear line is new, and there’s already a variety of items to shop.




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A fronte della diffusione delle criptovalute, le autorità devono essere pronte ad agire - Agustín Carstens

Italian translation of Press Release about BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens giving a speech on "Money in the digital age: what role for central banks?" (6 February 2018)




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Face aux cryptomonnaies, les autorités doivent être prêtes à agir - Agustín Carstens

French translation of Press Release about BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens giving a speech on "Money in the digital age: what role for central banks?" (6 February 2018)




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art is a lie that just wont die v




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poetry reading i just quit my job today




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Chris Costa's Bust'em - :biotruths:






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Wintrust Financial Corporation Reports Record Full-Year 2019 Net Income of $355.7 million and Fourth Quarter 2019 Net Income of $86.0 million, up 8% from the Fourth Quarter 2018

To view more press releases, please visit http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/news.aspx?iid=1024452.








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Wintrust Financial Corporation Announces Precautionary Decision to Help Achieve Community Health Objectives By Temporarily Closing Selected Branches

To view more press releases, please visit http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/news.aspx?iid=1024452.











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Academy funds three leading engineers to tackle major industry challenges




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Linux Foundation Leads Initiative for Better Digital Trust

The Linux Foundation will host ToIP, a cross-industry effort to ensure more secure data handling over the Internet. This new foundation is an independent project enabling trustworthy exchange and verification of data between any two parties on the Internet. The ToIP Foundation will provide a robust common standard to instill confidence that data is coming from a trusted source.