COP26: What happened, what does this mean, and what happens next? Chatham House briefing NCapeling 15 November 2021

Analysing a crucial opportunity for enhancing ambitions on climate finance, adaptation, and ‘loss and damage’, and the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Key findings

Raising the ambition of national emission reduction targets (nationally determined contributions – NDCs) was a critical task for COP26. On this front, governments fell short: although over 120 parties have submitted new or updated NDCs, the new targets only narrow the gap to 1.5°C by 15–17 per cent, and are, if fully implemented (and this is far from certain), projected to result in warming of 2.4°C by the end of the century.

If warming is to be limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, additional emissions reductions before 2030, over and above current NDC pledges, will need to equate to reducing emissions by the equivalent of two years of current annual emissions. To keep warming to 2°C, the equivalent reductions would be needed of one year’s total emissions.

The Glasgow Climate Pact – the main political outcome of COP26 – requests governments to revisit and strengthen their NDCs before the end of 2022 to bring these in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. To keep 1.5°C within reach, it will be absolutely essential that governments return to the table with significantly enhanced offers ahead of COP27, which will take place at Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in 2022.

Another key feature of the Glasgow Climate Pact is the reference to ‘accelerating efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies’. Although the language was watered down over the course of the negotiations, COP26 marks the first time ever reducing fossil fuels is mentioned in a COP decision.

Discussions around climate finance, adaptation, and loss and damage were centre stage in Glasgow, and were critical points of contention. Although the Glasgow Climate Pact urges developed countries to ‘fully’ deliver on the $100 billion annual climate finance pledge through to 2025, it remains unclear when this sum will actually be raised in full – and if a total of $500 billion will be mobilized between 2020 and 2025 to make up for initial shortfalls.

And while the Pact urges developed countries to double their adaptation finance by 2025, and establishes a dialogue on loss and damage finance, much more will need to be done to address the needs of climate-vulnerable developing countries. 

COP26 saw a flurry of plurilateral deals on key issues such as phasing out various forms of fossil fuels and ending deforestation. These initiatives have the potential to accelerate decarbonization, but monitoring their implementation and holding governments and other institutions to account will be critical. Future COPs provide a platform for doing this, and governments should seek to incorporate the pledges made outside the formal remits of the UNFCCC process in their NDCs.

While some progress was made at COP26, the next 12 months will be crucial in determining if the formal agreements reached in Glasgow provide grounds for optimism that 1.5°C remains firmly in sight, and are sufficient to build trust between countries and between citizens and governments.

Read the full analysis

Diagnosing social behavioural dynamics of corruption Other resource dora.popova 8 December 2021

This interactive toolkit identifies the types of social expectations which sustain selected corrupt practices and provides behaviourally-informed recommendations for changing them.

When tackling a problem as complex as corruption, it is important to understand why and how people behave in different situations where corruption occurs. In contexts where it is easier to engage in corruption than avoid it, identifying the social expectations and informal rules which sustain corrupt practices can advance corruption prevention and deepen collective action.  

Behavioural approaches to corruption offer a better understanding of diverse social settings, group dynamics, power distribution, social motivations, and expectations that contribute to a more tolerant environment for certain forms of the phenomenon. They are also highly complementary to traditional corruption measures, which tend to focus on the enforcement of legal sanctions and deterrents. Behavioural approaches, especially those inspired by social norms theory, highlight complex social characteristics and informal rules of specific corrupt practices, and effectively support implementation of more dynamic context-specific anti-corruption interventions.

Since 2016, the Chatham House Africa programme’s Social Norms and Accountable Governance (SNAG) project has adopted a behavioural approach based on social norms methodology to investigate the social beliefs which motivate different forms of corruption. Drawing on the project’s extensive evidence-gathering and analysis, this toolkit offers users navigable behavioural mapping of contextual factors, beliefs, and expectations surrounding common corrupt practices. 

It aims to support anti-corruption actors in diagnosing informal rules and social expectations which sustain corruption in some societies. It also proposes behavioural-informed guidance for developing or adapting anti-corruption interventions and activities, so they account for informal rules of behaviour such as social norms. 
 
The toolkit supports users to:

• Identify whether and how widespread corrupt practices are motivated by social beliefs and expectations.

• Understand how society influences the types of corrupt activity individuals engage in, or avoid, and the factors informing these choices

• Integrate empirical evidence and behavioural insights into anti-corruption strategies from diagnostics to design, and eventual implementation and evaluation

The toolkit presents evidence from SNAG’s research into three key corrupt practices – bribery, embezzlement, and electoral fraud. Each was examined in the context of typical situations in which they occur, such as law enforcement, healthcare, the power sector, voting, and education while critical factors such as religion, gender, and ethnicity were considered. 

The toolkit presents an overview of specific contexts and behavioural features of the practices and provides behavioural-informed recommendations. It also contains pop-up features with definitions and explanations of key concepts. The toolkit is designed to be expandable, allowing further content and behavioural dynamics to be added.   

Belarusians’ views on the political crisis - Nov 2021 Other resource NCapeling 20 January 2022

Results of a public opinion poll conducted between 1 and 10 November 2021.

Chatham House surveyed a total of 767 respondents between 1 and 10 November 2021. Our survey sample corresponds to the general structure of Belarus’s urban population and is adjusted by gender, age, education level and the size of respondents’ place of residence.

Summary

• After Aliaksandr Lukashenka, the most well-known political figures in Belarus are the protest leaders: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Viktar Babaryka, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, Valery Tsapkala, Marya Kalesnikava and Pavel Latushka.
• Lukashenka and Babaryka have the highest popularity ratings among Belarus’s urban population. At the same time, Lukashenka has a high negative rating: half of the city residents surveyed say that they would never vote for him. Babaryka has one of the lowest negative ratings in the country.
• The popularity ratings of pro-government politicians are low, and their negative ratings remain extremely high, although the latter have decreased slightly in comparison with July 2021. The popularity ratings of protest leaders are significantly higher than those of politicians who support the current government.
• Trust in state and independent organizations is polarized along political lines. Thus, respondents classed as hardcore protesters do not trust state structures and do trust independent ones, while Lukashenka’s supporters hold the opposite positions.
• Belarusians’ geopolitical orientations remain stable. The most widely preferred option for a geopolitical union is simultaneous integration with the EU and Russia.
• Belarusians have become increasingly negative about the possibility that Russian airbases could be established on Belarusian territory (48 per cent in November 2021, compared to 39 per cent in July 2021).
• Belarusians are now feeling more strongly that the situation concerning the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened: in November, more than half were beginning to respond that Belarus is unable to cope with the spread of coronavirus.
• Sanctions against Lukashenka and those around him are supported more widely than sanctions against state enterprises.
• Belarusians feel there is acute social tension in their country: almost everyone surveyed states that social tension exists, while one in every five respondents considers the situation catastrophic. A perception that there is social tension is closely related to many factors, with the strongest of all being a sense of a lack of personal safety.
• Only one-third of Belarusians are prepared to call the state built under Lukashenka their own. Most of the survey respondents do not trust this state to some degree, and do not believe that the state protects the interests of Belarusian citizens.

Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings

• Belarusians’ views on the political crisis (PDF)

• Взгляды белорусов на политический кризис (PDF)

The Justice Laboratory: International Law in Africa Book dora.popova 30 March 2022

The Justice Laboratory is the first major study of the institutions created to enforce international criminal justice standards in Sub-Saharan Africa, including the UN tribunal for the Rwandan genocide.

Since the Second World War, the United Nations and other international actors have created laws, treaties, and institutions to punish perpetrators of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. But international criminal justice now seems to be a declining force — its energy sapped by long delays in prosecutions, lagging public attention, and a globally rising authoritarianism that disregards legal niceties.

The Justice Laboratory reviews five examples of international criminal justice as they have been applied across Africa, where brutal civil conflicts in recent decades resulted in varying degrees of global attention and action.

Written in an accessible style, the book explores the connections between politics and the doctrine of international criminal law. Highlighting little-known institutional examples and under-discussed political situations, the book contributes to a broader international understanding of African politics and international criminal justice, and the lessons African experiences can offer to other countries.

This book is part of the Insights series.

Praise for The Justice Laboratory

About the author

Kerstin Bree Carlson is associate professor of international law at the Department of Social Science and Business, Roskilde University, where she teaches topics in law and society, global studies, international politics, and Nordic migration.

Purchase

• UK (via Amazon)
• Rest of world (via Brookings Institution Press)
• Students (via Browns Books)

Annual Review 2021–22 Other resource NCapeling 11 July 2022

Explore highlights from our work over the past year, including research, events, and next generation initiatives.

Chair’s statement

The past 12 months have seen new levels of instability injected into international affairs. The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the continued fracturing of the international system and Russia’s war on Ukraine, which triggered the largest movement of refugees since the Second World War, have had severe impacts on trade, prices and people around the world.

Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme and its Ukraine Forum have advised allied governments on their response to the war on Ukraine, and secured the participation of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the most watched event of the institute’s history.

The challenge now is to ensure Chatham House can bring together its diverse areas of research and offer influential ideas on how to respond to the uncertain future. Council has supported the push to define clear priorities for the institute’s work, and the launch of two new research centres covering sustainability and global governance.

Drawing out the best from the institute’s expertise in the changed geopolitical landscape will be a top priority for Bronwen Maddox when she takes over as director at the end of August. Council is delighted to have found such a worthy successor to Robin Niblett. Robin’s 15 years of inspiring leadership have seen the institute more than triple in size of staff and budget. New areas of research under his tenure include cyber policy, digital governance, global health, the US and the Americas, and the UK in the world post-Brexit.

Robin also launched the Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs, providing the base for many initiatives to engage the next generation. He also leaves the institute with a rebuilt balance sheet after securing some major long-term gifts; expanded and renovated premises; and a strong communications and digital infrastructure that has raised the profile of Chatham House with our audiences.

Council places on record the institute’s debt to Robin and to his wife, Trisha de Borchgrave. Chatham House’s supporters around the world were delighted to see Robin awarded a knighthood in HM The Queen’s Birthday Honours 2022.

I pay tribute also to my predecessor, Jim O’Neill, and I am grateful to Simon Fraser, deputy chair, and to the other four retiring members of Council (Mimi Ajibadé, Heide Baumann, Kenneth Cukier and Tim Willasey-Wilsey) for their dedication and counsel.

Council will continue to focus on strengthening the impact of the institute’s work and on improving governance, as well as providing continuity during the leadership transition. We will act as a strategic partner for Bronwen as she takes Chatham House forward. Central to this will be implementing the institute’s plan to strengthen equality, diversity and inclusion across the board. Finally, I thank the staff for their commitment through this period of transformation.

Sir Nigel Sheinwald GCMG

100 years of International Affairs Other resource dora.popova 1 March 2023

Charting a century of key moments in international relations and International Affairs.

International Affairs was created to be a record of speeches given by visiting dignitaries at Chatham House. Over the last 100 years, the journal has evolved into an independent academic journal publishing work of the highest quality.

On the fringes of the Paris peace conference Lionel Curtis called for an organization whose purpose would be to foster mutual understanding of and between nations. Chatham House was established in 1920 and for much of the time since, International Affairs has been a central part of the institute’s publishing output.

As such, for most of its history, contributions to the journal have reflected the prevailing attitudes of the time, both in terms of who was published and the content of their work. Perhaps the most important change over the last century has been the increasing diversity of voices and perspectives published in IA’s pages. Today, as the journal enters its second century, it publishes authors from across the globe. Yet the editorial team is all too aware there is still much to do.

Keep reading to explore the journal’s history and to find out more about our second century.

The drawings in this timeline were commissioned by the International Affairs team from Sequential Potential Comics.

There is nothing quite like the excitement of discovery in science—of finding something no one else knew and seeing a story unfold. One has to be part of an emerging picture to feel the elation. These moments in a lifetime are few and far between, but they fuel enthusiasm and keep one going. They are embedded in struggles and joys of everyday life, years of establishing what Louis Pasteur called “the prepared mind,” working with mentors, trainees, and colleagues, failures and successes. This article recalls 1) how I got to be a biochemist; 2) my contributions as an educator and researcher, especially regarding meprin metalloproteases; and 3) my participation in communities of science. Perhaps my reflections will help an aspiring scientist see how fulfilling a career in science can be.

In nucleotide excision repair, bulky DNA lesions such as UV-induced cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers are removed from the genome by concerted dual incisions bracketing the lesion, followed by gap filling and ligation. So far, two dual-incision patterns have been discovered: the prokaryotic type, which removes the damage in 11–13-nucleotide-long oligomers, and the eukaryotic type, which removes the damage in 24–32-nucleotide-long oligomers. However, a recent study reported that the UvrC protein of Mycobacterium tuberculosis removes damage in a manner analogous to yeast and humans in a 25-mer oligonucleotide arising from incisions at 15 nt from the 3´ end and 9 nt from the 5´ end flanking the damage. To test this model, we used the in vivo excision assay and the excision repair sequencing genome-wide repair mapping method developed in our laboratory to determine the repair pattern and genome-wide repair map of Mycobacterium smegmatis. We find that M. smegmatis, which possesses homologs of the Escherichia coli uvrA, uvrB, and uvrC genes, removes cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers from the genome in a manner identical to the prokaryotic pattern by incising 7 nt 5´ and 3 or 4 nt 3´ to the photoproduct, and performs transcription-coupled repair in a manner similar to E. coli.

The faithful segregation, or “partition,” of many low-copy number bacterial plasmids is driven by plasmid-encoded ATPases that are represented by the P1 plasmid ParA protein. ParA binds to the bacterial nucleoid via an ATP-dependent nonspecific DNA (nsDNA)-binding activity, which is essential for partition. ParA also has a site-specific DNA-binding activity to the par operator (parOP), which requires either ATP or ADP, and which is essential for it to act as a transcriptional repressor but is dispensable for partition. Here we examine how DNA binding by ParA contributes to the relative distribution of its plasmid partition and repressor activities, using a ParA with an alanine substitution at Arg351, a residue previously predicted to participate in site-specific DNA binding. In vivo, the parAR351A allele is compromised for partition, but its repressor activity is dramatically improved so that it behaves as a “super-repressor.” In vitro, ParAR351A binds and hydrolyzes ATP, and undergoes a specific conformational change required for nsDNA binding, but its nsDNA-binding activity is significantly damaged. This defect in turn significantly reduces the assembly and stability of partition complexes formed by the interaction of ParA with ParB, the centromere-binding protein, and DNA. In contrast, the R351A change shows only a mild defect in site-specific DNA binding. We conclude that the partition defect is due to altered nsDNA binding kinetics and affinity for the bacterial chromosome. Furthermore, the super-repressor phenotype is explained by an increased pool of non-nucleoid bound ParA that is competent to bind parOP and repress transcription.

DNA polymerase from bacteriophage T7 undergoes large, substrate-induced conformational changes that are thought to account for high replication fidelity, but prior studies were adversely affected by mutations required to construct a Cys-lite variant needed for site-specific fluorescence labeling. Here we have optimized the direct incorporation of a fluorescent un-natural amino acid, (7-hydroxy-4-coumarin-yl)-ethylglycine, using orthogonal amber suppression machinery in Escherichia coli. MS methods verify that the unnatural amino acid is only incorporated at one position with minimal background. We show that the single fluorophore provides a signal to detect nucleotide-induced conformational changes through equilibrium and stopped-flow kinetic measurements of correct nucleotide binding and incorporation. Pre-steady-state chemical quench methods show that the kinetics and fidelity of DNA replication catalyzed by the labeled enzyme are largely unaffected by the unnatural amino acid. These advances enable rigorous analysis to establish the kinetic and mechanistic basis for high-fidelity DNA replication.

In eukaryotic DNA replication, DNA polymerase ε (Polε) is responsible for leading strand synthesis, whereas DNA polymerases α and δ synthesize the lagging strand. The human Polε (hPolε) holoenzyme is comprised of the catalytic p261 subunit and the noncatalytic p59, p17, and p12 small subunits. So far, the contribution of the noncatalytic subunits to hPolε function is not well understood. Using pre-steady-state kinetic methods, we established a minimal kinetic mechanism for DNA polymerization and editing catalyzed by the hPolε holoenzyme. Compared with the 140-kDa N-terminal catalytic fragment of p261 (p261N), which we kinetically characterized in our earlier studies, the presence of the p261 C-terminal domain (p261C) and the three small subunits increased the DNA binding affinity and the base substitution fidelity. Although the small subunits enhanced correct nucleotide incorporation efficiency, there was a wide range of rate constants when incorporating a correct nucleotide over a single-base mismatch. Surprisingly, the 3'→5' exonuclease activity of the hPolε holoenzyme was significantly slower than that of p261N when editing both matched and mismatched DNA substrates. This suggests that the presence of p261C and the three small subunits regulates the 3'→5' exonuclease activity of the hPolε holoenzyme. Together, the 3'→5' exonuclease activity and the variable mismatch extension activity modulate the overall fidelity of the hPolε holoenzyme by up to 3 orders of magnitude. Thus, the presence of p261C and the three noncatalytic subunits optimizes the dual enzymatic activities of the catalytic p261 subunit and makes the hPolε holoenzyme an efficient and faithful replicative DNA polymerase.

The origin recognition complex (ORC), composed of six subunits, ORC1–6, binds to origins of replication as a ring-shaped heterohexameric ATPase that is believed to be essential to recruit and load MCM2–7, the minichromosome maintenance protein complex, around DNA and initiate DNA replication. We previously reported the creation of viable cancer cell lines that lacked detectable ORC1 or ORC2 protein without a reduction in the number of origins firing. Here, using CRISPR-Cas9–mediated mutations, we report that human HCT116 colon cancer cells also survive when ORC5 protein expression is abolished via a mutation in the initiator ATG of the ORC5 gene. Even if an internal methionine is used to produce an undetectable, N terminally deleted ORC5, the protein would lack 80% of the AAA+ ATPase domain, including the Walker A motif. The ORC5-depleted cells show normal chromatin binding of MCM2–7 and initiate replication from a similar number of origins as WT cells. In addition, we introduced a second mutation in ORC2 in the ORC5 mutant cells, rendering both ORC5 and ORC2 proteins undetectable in the same cells and destabilizing the ORC1, ORC3, and ORC4 proteins. Yet the double mutant cells grow, recruit MCM2–7 normally to chromatin, and initiate DNA replication with normal number of origins. Thus, in these selected cancer cells, either a crippled ORC lacking ORC2 and ORC5 and present at minimal levels on the chromatin can recruit and load enough MCM2–7 to initiate DNA replication, or human cell lines can sometimes recruit MCM2–7 to origins independent of ORC.

Faithful replication of the mitochondrial genome is carried out by a set of key nuclear-encoded proteins. DNA polymerase γ is a core component of the mtDNA replisome and the only replicative DNA polymerase localized to mitochondria. The asynchronous mechanism of mtDNA replication predicts that the replication machinery encounters dsDNA and unique physical barriers such as structured genes, G-quadruplexes, and other obstacles. In vitro experiments here provide evidence that the polymerase γ heterotrimer is well-adapted to efficiently synthesize DNA, despite the presence of many naturally occurring roadblocks. However, we identified a specific G-quadruplex–forming sequence at the heavy-strand promoter (HSP1) that has the potential to cause significant stalling of mtDNA replication. Furthermore, this structured region of DNA corresponds to the break site for a large (3,895 bp) deletion observed in mitochondrial disease patients. The presence of this deletion in humans correlates with UV exposure, and we have found that efficiency of polymerase γ DNA synthesis is reduced after this quadruplex is exposed to UV in vitro.

Homologous recombination (HR) repairs DNA double-strand breaks using intact homologous sequences as template DNA. Broken DNA and intact homologous sequences form joint molecules (JMs), including Holliday junctions (HJs), as HR intermediates. HJs are resolved to form crossover and noncrossover products. A mismatch repair factor, MLH3 endonuclease, produces the majority of crossovers during meiotic HR, but it remains elusive whether mismatch repair factors promote HR in nonmeiotic cells. We disrupted genes encoding the MLH3 and PMS2 endonucleases in the human B cell line, TK6, generating null MLH3−/− and PMS2−/− mutant cells. We also inserted point mutations into the endonuclease motif of MLH3 and PMS2 genes, generating endonuclease death MLH3DN/DN and PMS2EK/EK cells. MLH3−/− and MLH3DN/DN cells showed a very similar phenotype, a 2.5-fold decrease in the frequency of heteroallelic HR-dependent repair of restriction enzyme–induced double-strand breaks. PMS2−/− and PMS2EK/EK cells showed a phenotype very similar to that of the MLH3 mutants. These data indicate that MLH3 and PMS2 promote HR as an endonuclease. The MLH3DN/DN and PMS2EK/EK mutations had an additive effect on the heteroallelic HR. MLH3DN/DN/PMS2EK/EK cells showed normal kinetics of γ-irradiation–induced Rad51 foci but a significant delay in the resolution of Rad51 foci and a 3-fold decrease in the number of cisplatin-induced sister chromatid exchanges. The ectopic expression of the Gen1 HJ re-solvase partially reversed the defective heteroallelic HR of MLH3DN/DN/PMS2EK/EK cells. Taken together, we propose that MLH3 and PMS2 promote HR as endonucleases, most likely by processing JMs in mammalian somatic cells.

Timely repair of DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) is essential to maintaining genomic integrity and preventing illnesses induced by genetic abnormalities. We previously demonstrated that the E3 ubiquitin ligase SMURF2 plays a critical tumor suppressing role via its interaction with RNF20 (ring finger protein 20) in shaping chromatin landscape and preserving genomic stability. However, the mechanism that mobilizes SMURF2 in response to DNA damage remains unclear. Using biochemical approaches and MS analysis, we show that upon the onset of the DNA-damage response, SMURF2 becomes phosphorylated at Ser384 by ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) serine/threonine kinase, and this phosphorylation is required for its interaction with RNF20. We demonstrate that a SMURF2 mutant with an S384A substitution has reduced capacity to ubiquitinate RNF20 while promoting Smad3 ubiquitination unabatedly. More importantly, mouse embryonic fibroblasts expressing the SMURF2 S384A mutant show a weakened ability to sustain the DSB response compared with those expressing WT SMURF2 following etoposide treatment. These data indicate that SMURF2-mediated RNF20 ubiquitination and degradation controlled by ataxia telangiectasia mutated–induced phosphorylation at Ser384 constitutes a negative feedback loop that regulates DSB repair.

The Phillies continued to bolster their infield depth on Friday by signing versatile veteran Sean Rodriguez to a Minor League contract with an invite to big league Spring Training, MLB.com has learned.

The Phillies acquired All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins on Thursday for catcher Jorge Alfaro, right-hander Sixto Sanchez, left-hander Will Stewart and $250,000 in international bonus slot money, the latest move in a busy and ambitious offseason for a team eager to return to the postseason.

MLB Network's countdown of baseball's best players at each position came to a conclusion with the final installment of the "Top 10 Right Now!" series, featuring the game's top relief pitchers and shortstops.

All 30 Major League teams will wear special "MLB 150" patches on their uniforms for the entire 2019 season in honor of the 150th anniversary of the 1869 Cincinnati Red Stockings, the first openly all-salaried professional baseball team.

Phillies pitchers and catchers have their first workout Wednesday morning at Carpenter Complex. Almost anything can happen between Wednesday and Opening Day. That said, here is a very early prediction of the Phillies' Opening Day roster, knowing the Phillies remain in the hunt to sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.

Fans and analysts spend the entire offseason speculating where the top free agents could go, but sometimes an under-the-radar pickup can end up making a world of difference. As positional competitions begin to heat up at Spring Training camps this month, MLB.com's beat writers were asked to identify one potentially overlooked acquisition for each of the 30 clubs. Here's who they came up with.

The Phillies introduced J.T. Realmuto, their new All-Star catcher, in a news conference Tuesday at the team's Spring Training complex in Clearwater, Fla.

Gabe Kapler is trying to keep the focus on his players in 2019, but it might be an impossible task.

A slimmed down Maikel Franco and a bulked up Scott Kingery will compete for playing time at third base this season.

Aaron Nola established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2018. The Phillies ensured on Wednesday that he will be the ace in their rotation for possibly the next five seasons.

The 30 prospects below all are getting very long looks this spring with an eye toward breaking camp with the parent club. Even if they start the year in the Minors, they all should get the chance to contribute at some point in the very near future.

General Manager Matt Klentak discussed the Phillies' offseason in a press conference on Thursday in Clearwater, Fla. The Phillies remain in contact with the agents for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. The belief is that the front office still prefers Machado over Harper because of Machado's combination of offense and defense.

Jake Arrieta on Thursday offered an unexpected explanation for his second-half struggles in 2018: he pitched much of last season with an injured left knee.

We're reluctant to finalize our list of offseason winners because, as you may have heard, there are some prominent unsigned free agents. Not just Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, either.

Odubel Herrera smiled and patted his stomach. The paunch that he carried into Spring Training 2018 is no longer there. Herrera has reported to camp leaner and, as he said Friday morning at Spectrum Field, motivated to bounce back from the worst season of his four-year career.

Phillies president Andy MacPhail opened a 28-minute press conference on Friday afternoon at Spectrum Field with facts and figures about investments the organization made the past few seasons as the team wallowed at the bottom of the National League. Then MacPhail talked a lot about Bryce Harper and Manny Machado as well as manager Gabe Kapler.

Phillies manager Gabe Kapler believes the two most important spots in a lineup are the Nos. 2 and 4 holes. Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana hit there most of last season. But with J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura joining the Phillies in the offseason, Kapler has more options.

On this opening week of Spring Training, all 30 Major League teams have one thing in common: optimism. Here's an optimism cheat sheet for each of them.

Jean Segura became one of the Phillies' most notable offseason acquisitions, a two-time All-Star expected to give the organization its best overall production at shortstop since Jimmy Rollins left town, in part because of a little brawl he had late last season with Mariners teammate Dee Gordon.

Maikel Franco followed the endless and often mind-numbing speculation the past few months from the Dominican Republic. Franco knows that Manny Machado could show up at Spectrum Field at any moment. The Phillies entertained him at Citizens Bank Park just before Christmas. They have made him at least one contract offer. If the Phillies sign him, Franco also knows he could be traded.

Jerad Eickhoff took his latest first step on Sunday morning at Spectrum Field. He threw a bullpen session, his first since sustaining a setback last month following carpal tunnel surgery in October.

The next five weeks will see lots of shuffling on Major League rosters. Here are the most intriguing positional battles on each of the 30 MLB clubs.

The Phillies have been the favorites in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes for months, and that speculation heated up over the weekend.

Phillies manager Gabe Kapler has a little advice for the players who could be impacted most if the team signs Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.

Cesar Hernandez scored 91 runs last season, the Phillies' highest mark since Rollins scored 102 in 2012. Now the luster is no longer there for players who score 100 runs or post 100 RBIs, but Hernandez should score at least 100 runs this season, if he stays healthy and if the Phillies' offense improves as expected.

The Phillies list isn't quite as strong as it once was because of the Realmuto deal, but there's still some very good talent at the top and some exciting players on the rise.

Will Rhys Hoskins be bummed if Bryce Harper signs elsewhere?

Bryce Harper is the final superstar standing for the Phillies.

The countdown to pitchers and catchers reporting is down to single digits for all 30 MLB clubs, but as exciting as it is to see the return of Major League stars, it's also a time to dream about the next wave of baseball talent.

Spring Training is imminent, Opening Day is within sight and the big league season isn't complete for fans without a subscription to MLB.TV. The most comprehensive streaming service in professional sports is now available for the 2019 season.

Leading up to the start of Spring Training, the Around the Horn series will examine each of the Angels' positional groupings heading into the 2019 season. Here's a look at the bullpen.

MLB.com looked at each team's two highest-ranked position players in WAR, according to the Steamer projections. Here are the top 10, but keep in mind that things could change once Manny Machado and Bryce Harper find homes.

It's almost time for Spring Training yet again, as Angels pitchers and catchers report to their Spring Training complex in Tempe, Ariz. on Feb. 12.

With less than a week left until Angels pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, it's time for the final Angels Inbox of the offseason.

Our weekly series previewing each of baseball's six divisions begins with the American League West. Let's take a team-by-team look at the biggest questions this season.