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International declaration: Geoscience expertise is crucial for meeting societal challenges

(European Geosciences Union) A new declaration endorsed by EGU and other international geoscience societies affirms the commitment of the Earth, planetary and space science community to support and promote scientific knowledge and research for the benefit of humanity.




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FSU researchers study Gulf of Mexico in international collaboration

(Florida State University) Florida State University and partner universities investigated current baseline conditions in the southern Gulf to create a series of maps and guides that detail the distribution of carbon, nitrogen and the carbon-14 isotope.




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Insights From the National Diabetes Education Program National Diabetes Survey: Opportunities for Diabetes Self-Management Education and Support

Linda J. Piccinino
May 1, 2017; 30:95-100
From Research to Practice




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Weh Dem Up To | Natel still making the hits

Many may remember Natel from the Digicel Rising Stars competition back in 2005. The singer was a runner-up that year and has been working to set himself apart in the music industry ever since. It has been 15 years, and although his name may not be...




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Alumni and Students From Greater China Donate PPE to NY Healthcare Workers Desperate for Gear

As the pandemic ebbed in China, alumni from the region raised more than $2.1 million to send crucial protective gear to New York healthcare workers.




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Recommitting to International Criminal Justice and Human Rights in Indonesia

6 April 2018

Agantaranansa Juanda

Academy Associate, International Law Programme

Jason Naselli

Senior Digital Editor
Agantaranansa Juanda speaks to Jason Naselli about the promises the government has made and the steps that still need to be taken for the country to deliver justice for past violations of human rights.

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Indonesian PM Joko Widodo. Photo: Getty Images.

Does the Indonesian government adequately protect human rights?

It does and it does not; it really depends on the context. Indonesia looks good among its neighbours in Southeast Asia in terms of protection of civil and political rights, and to some extent economic, social and cultural rights, although room for improvements exists.

But one of the promises of the current president, Joko Widodo, during his 2014 campaign was about international criminal justice, which involves rights for many victims of past cases of human rights abuses in Indonesia. In that sense, it does not protect these rights, including the rights to justice, truth, reparations or guarantees of non-recurrence.

For example, in the case of the conflict over independence for East Timor in 1999, there were many gross violations of human rights. However, there has never been any sort of effective judicial process to address gross violations of human rights, and crimes against humanity in particular.

In 1965–66, during the government’s violent anti-communist operations, 500,000 people or more were killed. Indonesia’s National Commission on Human Rights was tasked with conducting an investigation into this period within its limited mandate, but it led to nothing; there have never been any prosecutions relating to these crimes.

The election promise of the current president was to deal with a number of these past human rights cases, and this promise has not been met at all. His opponent in 2014, Prabowo Subianto, was a former military general involved in alleged past human rights abuses, so it was politically expedient to make such a promise. But it has not been pursued in office.

In 2000, Indonesia established its own Human Rights Court. What is your assessment of its record?

Some human rights activists suggested that the establishment of the Human Rights Court took place under international pressure following the independence of East Timor. To avoid international scrutiny, for example the creation of an ad hoc international tribunal, the government established this court.

Based on the report of the International Commission of Inquiry on East Timor in 2000, it was indeed recommended that an international human rights tribunal be set up. Indonesian government rejected the proposal with strong assurances that it would provide justice for atrocities committed by its nationals. So it is fair for some to see the establishment of Indonesia’s Human Rights Court as a political move by the government at that time, in order to avoid scrutiny by the international community.

When it comes to performance, the Human Rights Court actually investigated and prosecuted cases relating to atrocities in East Timor. There were around 100 suspects identified, and 18 were put on trial. Out of these 18, only one trial, of Eurico Guterres, ended in a conviction for crimes against humanity. However, the Indonesian Supreme Court cleared Guterres of all charges in 2008. So the Human Rights Court did take steps, but the net result amounted to essentially nothing. Impunity remains.

So it has not lived up to its mandate, but there is another factor, which is that the founding law of the Human Rights Court does not accommodate international standards of criminal justice. It only covers two of the four categories of crime as outlined in the Rome Statute – crimes against humanity and genocide. It also does not provide adequate protection for victims and witnesses. So there are issues not only with the performance of the Human Rights Court but also with the legislation establishing it.

Why hasn’t Indonesia become a party to the Rome Statute to join the ICC?

The main opposition came from the military, because they were afraid of being targeted by the ICC. There was also a lot of discussion about Indonesia’s ‘sovereign right to prosecute’.

But what those opposing failed to understand is that the ICC is bound by temporal and territorial boundaries, meaning that it will not intervene if the state in question is able and willing to prosecute. So I think accession to the Rome Statute has not taken place because of this misunderstanding.

I think another factor since this was initially raised is there is a focus on other issues. Indonesia is an emerging country economically; there is a focus on building infrastructure. So many in government feel like they are done with the past. But for the millions of victims of past crimes and their families, the past is not done.

So it’s very important at this point in the country’s history to revisit the commitment to international criminal justice to be able to contribute to sustainable peace and development.

What steps could the Indonesian government take to improve how it handles these issues?

The establishment of the Human Rights Court was an important starting point, but clearly there has to be significant reform, both in terms of the substantive law underpinning it and its procedures.

Clearly the domestic laws need to be reformed, but also, an effort needs to be made to improve the courts capacity in terms of manpower and logistical support. This is why the government needs to restart the discussion about becoming a party to the Rome Statute. Through the outreach programme of the ICC, this would give the Human Rights Court the capacity, in terms of manpower and logistical support, to tackle past human rights violations in Indonesia, which the Human Rights Court is currently lacking.

Only if these two steps are taken – reforming the domestic Human Rights Court and restarting discussion about becoming a party to the Rome Statute – will the Indonesian government be able to say it has made progress on international criminal justice.

The Indonesian government is actually running for a seat on the UN Security Council for the period of 2019–20. So I think it is an urgent discussion that the Indonesian government needs to have before it makes another pledge to contribute to the maintenance of international peace and security. It is difficult to have sustainable peace without justice.




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Cyber and International Law in the 21st Century

Research Event

23 May 2018 - 9:00am to 10:00am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Rt Hon Jeremy Wright QC MP, Attorney General, UK
Chair: Elizabeth Wilmshurst CMG, Distinguished Fellow, Chatham House

Cyber intrusions do not respect international borders. At this event, the attorney general will discuss how to apply and shape international law in order to ensure the rules-based international system can adapt to the threats – and opportunities – posed by cyber into the future.

 




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China and the International Order

Invitation Only Research Event

21 November 2018 - 12:30pm to 2:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Harriet Moynihan, Associate Fellow, International Law Programme, Chatham House
Dr Champa Patel, Head, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Rod Wye, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House

In 2014, the Chinese government announced its intention to strengthen China's discourse power and influence in international legal affairs. Since then, the International Law Programme and Asia-Pacific Programmes at Chatham House have been evaluating the increasing emphasis on international law in China's global governance agenda. Our research includes the hosting of roundtables with a global network of international lawyers including leading Chinese academics.

This meeting will discuss insights emerging from two recent roundtables held in Beijing(opens in new window) and New York in 2018. The Beijing roundtable focussed on China’s approach to emerging areas of international law, including the law applicable to cyber operations, the Arctic, dispute settlement and business and human rights. The New York roundtable discussed the international law relating to peace and security including use of force, sanctions, international humanitarian law applicable to peacekeepers, international criminal law including the crime of aggression and human rights, peace and security.

Harriet Moynihan will discuss China's ambitions to play a more influential role in shaping international law drawing on findings from both roundtables. The meeting will also consider how China's ambitions for the international order fit within China's foreign and domestic policy agenda and changes to global governance generally.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Chanu Peiris

Programme Manager, International Law
+44 (0)20 7314 3686




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Bolton’s Attack on the International Criminal Court May Backfire

20 September 2018

Dr Max du Plessis SC

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme
The US national security advisor’s recent threats look damaging but they may in fact strengthen support for the ICC from other states.

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John Bolton speaks to the Federalist Society on 10 September. Photo: Getty Images.

On 10 September, US National Security Advisor John Bolton used his first major speech since joining the White House to attack the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) potential investigation of American personnel in Afghanistan. The ‘American patriots’, as Bolton describes them, are being investigated for potential torture and ill-treatment of detainees, mostly in 2003 and 2004, during the United States-led invasion of the country.

Bolton has a long history of opposition to the ICC. Although the US signed the ICC Statute under president Bill Clinton, it was ‘unsigned’ by Bolton, then an under-secretary of state in the George W Bush administration.

And when the court first opened its doors in 2002, Bolton helped secure, in what he described on 10 September as one of his ‘proudest achievements’, around 100 bilateral agreements with other countries to prevent them from delivering US personnel to the ICC. Those agreements were often extracted under pressure, with the US threatening to cut off military and other aid to countries that refused to sign.

In recent years under the Obama administration, relations between the US and the ICC improved, and the US offered help and support to the court. Bolton’s attack is aimed at reversing those gains – with measures aimed directly at the court and its staff.

These include: (i) negotiating ‘even more binding, bilateral agreements to prohibit nations from surrendering US persons to the ICC’; (ii) banning ICC judges and prosecutors from entering the US, sanctioning their funds in the US financial system and prosecuting them in the US criminal courts (and doing the ‘same for any company or state that assists an ICC investigation of Americans’); and (iii) ‘taking note if any countries cooperate with ICC investigations of the United States and its allies, and remember[ing] that cooperation when setting US foreign assistance, military assistance and intelligence sharing levels’.

These are serious threats – they would potentially undermine the work of a court that is designed to prosecute the world’s worst crimes. The ICC prosecutor and its judges would be barred entry from the US to attend to vital work of the court.

Some of that work, ironically, is at the behest of the US. For instance, two of the UN Security Council’s referrals to the ICC, one in relation to atrocities committed in Sudan, the other in respect of the crimes committed by Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, were referred with US support. 

Also, the meetings of the ICC Assembly of States Parties are held each year at UN headquarters in New York. Those meetings may have to be held elsewhere if the ICC judges and staff are under threat of arrest.

In the case of the potential torture linked to operations in Afghanistan, the ICC has not been acting on its own initiative in investigating. For example, the Center for Constitutional Rights submitted ‘victim’s representations’ to the ICC on behalf of two of their clients, Sharqawi Al Hajj and Guled Hassan Duran, emphasizing the importance of an ICC investigation of US officials for serious crimes arising out of post-9/11 detention and interrogations.

According to the center, both Al Hajj and Duran were detained by the CIA in black sites or 'proxy-detention' by other countries, tormented and tortured.

Although the US is not a party to the ICC Statute, Afghanistan is, and therefore the court has jurisdiction over US nationals who allegedly committed atrocities in Afghanistan. And it should be noted that the investigation includes pursuing any atrocities committed by the Taliban and Afghan security forces during the same period.

So the basis for attacking the work of the ICC based on this is shaky, and Bolton’s threats raise a number of important international law questions going forward. 

For one, they may be unlawful retaliatory steps, given that the US has obligations to accord at least some privileges and immunities to judges and other personnel of the ICC under the 1947 UN Headquarters Agreement between the UN and US. Counter-measures might be considered by member states of the ICC, either alone, or collectively. 

In this regard, Bolton’s comments about the EU will not go unnoticed: he suggests Europe is a region where ‘the global governance dogma is strong’. The US may yet come to learn just how strong that ‘dogma’ is.

With US abstention from the ICC, the opening remains for Europe and other regions to position themselves at the heart of the international criminal justice regime, thereby – as in response to the US attitude towards climate change – building a network of partnerships with other like-minded nations to compensate for US disengagement.

Further, while the ICC has many critics, and could be improved as an institution, Bolton’s speech may have the effect of galvanizing support for the world’s first permanent international criminal court. That could be a good thing for the court, which is sorely in need of support for its work.

Whatever concerns states may have about the ICC, they may be outweighed by a mutual desire to stand up to perceived bullying by the Trump administration, in favour of the international rule of law. 




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Exploring Public International Law and the Rights of Individuals with Chinese Scholars - Part One

17 April 2014

As part of a roundtable series, Chatham House and China University of Political Science and Law (CUPL) jointly organized this four-day meeting at Chatham House for international lawyers to discuss a wide range of issues related to public international law and the rights of individuals.

Sonya Sceats

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme

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The Representative of China at the 19th Session of the Human Rights Council, Palais des Nations, Geneva. 27 February 2012. Photo: UN Photo Geneva/Violaine Martin.

The specific objectives were to:

  • create a platform for Chinese international law academics working on international human rights law issues to present their thinking and exchange ideas with counterparts from outside China;
  • build stronger understanding within the wider international law community of intellectual debates taking place in China about the international human rights system and China's role within it;
  • support networking between Chinese and non-Chinese academics working on international human rights and related areas of international law.

The roundtable forms part of a wider Chatham House project exploring China's impact on the international human rights system and was inspired by early discussions with a burgeoning community of Chinese academics thinking, writing (mainly in Chinese) and teaching about international human rights law.

For China University of Political Science and Law, one of the largest and most prestigious law schools in China and perhaps the only university in the world with an entire faculty of international law, the initiative is part of a drive to forge partnerships beyond China in the international law field.

The roundtable had a total of 22 participants, 10 Chinese (from universities and other academic institutions in Beijing and Shanghai) and 12 non-Chinese (from Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States).

All discussions were held in English under the Chatham House Rule.




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Exploring Public International Law and the Rights of Individuals with Chinese Scholars - Part Two

15 November 2014

As part of a roundtable series, Chatham House and China University of Political Science and Law (CUPL) held a two-day roundtable meeting in Beijing on public international law and the rights of individuals.

Sonya Sceats

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme

20140624ChinaHumanRights.jpg

The Representative of China at the 19th Session of the Human Rights Council, Palais des Nations, Geneva. 27 February 2012. Photo: UN Photo Geneva/Violaine Martin.

The specific objectives were to:

  • create a platform for Chinese international law academics working on international human rights law issues to present their thinking and exchange ideas with counterparts from outside China;
  • build stronger understanding within the wider international law community of intellectual debates taking place in China about the international human rights system and China's role within it;
  • support networking between Chinese and non-Chinese academics working on international human rights and related areas of international law.

The roundtable forms part of a wider Chatham House project exploring China's impact on the international human rights system and was inspired by early discussions with a burgeoning community of Chinese academics thinking, writing (mainly in Chinese) and teaching about international human rights law.

For CUPL, one of the largest and most prestigious law schools in China and perhaps the only university in the world with an entire faculty of international law, the initiative is part of a drive to forge partnerships beyond China in the international law field.

The meeting in Beijing was hosted by CUPL and involved 20 participants, 10 Chinese (from universities and other academic institutions in Beijing) and 10 non-Chinese (from Australia, the Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States).

To ensure continuity while also expanding the experts network being built, the second meeting included a mix of participants from the first meeting and some new participants.

All discussions were held in English under the Chatham House Rule.




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Exploring Public International Law and the Rights of Individuals with Chinese Scholars - Part Three

6 March 2016

As part of a roundtable series, Chatham House, China University of Political Science and Law (CUPL) and the Graduate Institute Geneva held a two-day roundtable meeting in Geneva on public international law and the rights of individuals.

Sonya Sceats

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme

20140624ChinaHumanRights.jpg

The Representative of China at the 19th Session of the Human Rights Council, Palais des Nations, Geneva. 27 February 2012. Photo: UN Photo Geneva/Violaine Martin.

The specific objectives were to:

  • create a platform for Chinese international law academics working on international human rights law issues to present their thinking and exchange ideas with counterparts from outside China;
  • build stronger understanding within the wider international law community of intellectual debates taking place in China about the international human rights system and China's role within it;
  • support networking between Chinese and non-Chinese academics working on international human rights and related areas of international law.

The roundtable forms part of a wider Chatham House project exploring China's impact on the international human rights system and was inspired by early discussions with a burgeoning community of Chinese academics thinking, writing (mainly in Chinese) and teaching about international human rights law.

For CUPL, one of the largest and most prestigious law schools in China and perhaps the only university in the world with an entire faculty of international law, the initiative is part of a drive to forge partnerships beyond China in the international law field.

The meeting in Geneva was co-hosted by the Graduate Institute Geneva and involved 19 participants, 9 Chinese (from six research institutions in Beijing and Shanghai) and 11 non-Chinese (from eight research institutions in Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States).

To ensure continuity while also expanding the expert network being built, the third meeting included a mix of participants from the first two meetings and some new participants

All discussions were held in English under the Chatham House Rule.




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Exploring Public International Law Issues with Chinese Scholars – Part Four

3 June 2018

As part of a roundtable series, Chatham House and the China University of Political Science and Law (CUPL) held a two-day roundtable in Beijing on emerging issues of public international law. 

Harriet Moynihan

Senior Research Fellow, International Law Programme

20140624ChinaHumanRights.jpg

The Representative of China at the 19th Session of the Human Rights Council, Palais des Nations, Geneva. 27 February 2012. Photo: UN Photo Geneva/Violaine Martin.

The specific objectives were to:

  • create a platform for Chinese international law academics working on international human rights law issues to present their thinking and exchange ideas with counterparts from outside China;
  • build stronger understanding within the wider international law community of intellectual debates taking place in China about the international human rights system and China's role within it;
  • support networking between Chinese and non-Chinese academics working on international human rights and related areas of international law.

The roundtable forms part of a wider Chatham House project exploring China's impact on the international human rights system and was inspired by early discussions with a burgeoning community of Chinese academics thinking, writing (mainly in Chinese) and teaching about international human rights law.

For CUPL, one of the largest and most prestigious law schools in China and perhaps the only university in the world with an entire faculty of international law, the initiative is part of a drive to forge partnerships beyond China in the international law field.

The meeting was co-hosted with CUPL and involved 28 participants, consisting of 19 Chinese participants (from six leading research institutions in Beijing and Shanghai) and nine nonChinese participants (from eight leading research institutions in Australia, the Netherlands, the UK, Switzerland, Canada and Singapore).

To ensure continuity while also expanding the expert network being built, the fifth meeting included a mix of participants from the previous meetings and some new participants.

All discussions were held in English under the Chatham House Rule.




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Security and Prosperity in the Asia-Pacific: The Role of International Law

Research Event

27 March 2019 - 10:00am to 5:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Koji Tsuruoka, Ambassador of Japan to the United Kingdom
Ben Saul, Associate Fellow, International Law Programme, Chatham House; Challis Chair of International Law, Australian National University
Lee Chen Chen, Director, Singapore Institute of International Affairs
Aniruddha​ Rajput, Member, UN International Law Commission; Consultant, Withersworldwide

 

The rapid growth in the Asia-Pacific’s economic and political power has significant implications for global governance. Asia-Pacific countries such as Japan, India and China – and regional bodies such as ASEAN – are increasingly informing, influencing and seeking to shape international standards and norms.

This conference will bring together international law and policy experts to explore the political and legal dynamics affecting economic relations, security challenges and maritime governance in the region.

Given security and prosperity challenges within the region as well as the increasingly complex environment for global governance, to what extent is international law operating as a tool of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific? In which areas is it a source of friction?

And what are the broader implications for global governance including the development of international law?

Chanu Peiris

Programme Manager, International Law
+44 (0)20 7314 3686




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State Cyber Interventions Below the Threshold of the Use of Force: Challenges in the Application of International Law

Invitation Only Research Event

30 April 2019 - 10:00am to 4:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Chair: Elizabeth Wilmshurst, Distinguished Fellow, International Law Programme, Chatham House

Under what circumstances will a state-sponsored cyberattack on another state that falls below the threshold of the use of force be a breach of international law – for example, hacking into another state’s electoral databases, usurping inherently governmental functions such as parliamentary processes or an attack on another state’s financial system? In the dynamic field of state cyber operations, persistent, low-level cyberattacks are increasing, as are multilateral attempts to attribute the attacks to the states responsible. There is general agreement that international law applies to cyberspace but the question is how it applies and with what consequences.     
   
This meeting will bring together a small group of academics and practitioners to explore the application of international law to states’ cyber operations that interfere in the internal affairs of another state and which fall below the threshold of the use of force. What is the law on non-intervention in international law and how does it apply to states’ cyber activities? Does the Nicaragua case represent the best expression of the law in this area including the requirement of coercion? And are there any other principles of international law that are relevant? The meeting will also consider processes and procedures for agreeing on the law and best practices.
 
The purpose of the meeting will be to inform a research paper by Chatham House.
 
Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project




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Strengthen the International Criminal Court

12 June 2019

Elizabeth Wilmshurst CMG

Distinguished Fellow, International Law Programme
The ICC has been criticized for slow proceedings, weak management and ineffective prosecutions. The good news is that pragmatic reform need not entail fundamental treaty amendment; a culture change and more realistic expectations would go a long way.

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Laurent Gbagbo looks on next to his lawyer Emmanuel Altit before the start of his trial at the ICC on 28 January 2016. Photo by Getty Images.

The 1998 treaty which established the International Criminal Court (ICC) was adopted at a time when the world (or most of it) was willing to reach multilateral agreements on a variety of topics and was encouraging the development of international criminal justice. The two tribunals, set up by the UN Security Council, for the former Yugoslavia and for Rwanda had been relatively successful. The time was ripe for states to agree together to set up a permanent international court with wider scope than the two tribunals.

So the ICC was created, with jurisdiction over the international crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes; its jurisdiction for the crime of aggression developed later. The court was given the power to prosecute nationals of states that were parties to the ICC Statute, and also to prosecute where the crime was committed in the territory of a state party, whatever the nationality of the alleged criminals. The court had further jurisdiction when the Security Council referred a situation to it.

That was some 20 years ago. There is now a perception in many quarters that the ICC has not fulfilled the expectations of its founders. The court’s proceedings are cumbersome and lengthy. Many of the accused are still at large, including Omar al-Bashir, the former president of Sudan. Some €1.5 billion has been spent, and there have been only three convictions for the core international crimes.

There have been criticisms of the judges, the former Prosecutor and other officials, as well as concern over particular decisions of the court. The allegation that the court is only interested in crimes in Africa[1] is perhaps heard less frequently now than it once was (most of the African governments concerned referred the situations in their countries to the ICC themselves), and there has not been the mass walk-out of African states that was once predicted.

Our Shared Humanity: The Arc of Intervention

From Bosnia to the Brahimi Report and from Rwanda to R2P, Annan played a significant role in many critical moments that shaped approaches to peacekeeping and to the protection of civilians. What was the impact?

But in other quarters there is serious unease about the situation in the court. As the UK representative said at a meeting last year, ‘We cannot bury our heads in the sand and pretend everything is fine when it isn’t.’[2]

The negative assessment of the ICC’s work may be countered by the fact that it is the failure of states to cooperate with the court that causes many of the problems. Further, the expectations of states and civil society about the possibilities of international criminal justice have been so high that no court would be able to meet them. It is not possible for one court actually to ‘end impunity’ for international crimes,[3] nor to prevent war-related violence and mass atrocities, nor to satisfy all victims.

Moreover, the criticisms of the ICC come against the background of the global crisis for multilateralism more generally. The present US administration is notoriously hostile towards this international institution.[4]

On the plus side, the establishment of the court has encouraged states to revise their own laws on international crimes and to institute their own prosecutions where it is possible to do so. It is also claimed that the very existence of the court can be a deterrent to potential perpetrators of international crimes. The court has begun to add to the body of international criminal law and has increased the possibility that mass atrocities will be investigated.

But there is indeed some truth in the criticisms made of the internal workings of the court. One problem is that the particular combination of the civil and common law systems that has developed has produced cumbersome procedures regarding the representation of victims at most stages of the proceedings. It has also resulted in endless appeals from huge numbers of small decisions made by one chamber or another.

Then there are the management failures which have led to officials of the court being awarded compensation by the administrative tribunal of the International Labour Organization (ILO) because of the way they were treated by the court, and finally the decision of a few of the judges to take proceedings themselves at the ILO to have their salaries increased. 

Some ICC decisions have been met with surprise. For example, a former vice-president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Jean-Pierre Bemba, who was in the custody of the ICC for 10 years, was convicted by a unanimous trial chamber of various crimes and then succeeded on his appeal. Following this and the acquittal of former Côte d’Ivoire president Laurent Gbagbo,[5] there are concerns about the ability of the prosecution to succeed in cases against high-level alleged perpetrators.

Most recently, there has been criticism of the reasoning behind the appeal court decision regarding the immunity – or, rather, lack of immunity – of former president Bashir. And a decision of a chamber of the ICC not to authorize the opening of an investigation in Afghanistan has been seen as shielding the US from possible proceedings (though it has been welcomed by others as a pragmatic approach).

The message that certain problems with the ICC need fixing is coming not just from the writings of academics and the legal blogs,[6] but from governments too, including those, like the UK, which are among the foremost supporters of the court.

The former presidents of the ICC’s Assembly of States Parties (which comprises the representatives of all states parties) say that they ‘are disappointed by the quality of some of [the court’s] judicial proceedings, frustrated by some of the results, and exasperated by the management deficiencies that prevent the Court from living up to its full potential’.[7] 

Changes to remove the worst excesses of the procedures that have evolved could be effected without amendments to the treaty incorporating the ICC Statute. It may be that a change in culture is also needed. More modesty by the court, along with more realism from governments and civil society, is needed.

And, attractive as it might seem to push at the boundaries of the law, the court should be realistic in what it can achieve. It is next to impossible to prosecute a case effectively where there is no cooperation from the state on whose territory the crimes were committed.

What is needed is a court that can undertake efficient and effective criminal proceedings, delivering fair and impartial justice in the small number of cases which it is reasonable to expect it to address, in the light of the evidential challenges, limited resources and limited state cooperation.

Governments should decide together at the Assembly of States Parties to set in hand a review of the ICC’s operations. It has been suggested that a group of experts might be mandated to assess the management of the court;[8] on the basis of their report, governments could agree on the necessary improvements.

Not everything, however, can come within the remit of such a group. Governments should adopt new rules and practices to address matters such as the election process for judges and their training; governments might consider reaching their own understandings on how some provisions of the ICC Statute should be interpreted in practice. Governments should reach out to the many civil society organizations which have supported the court over the years, to ensure that they are involved in the process.

Measures of this kind cannot detract from the fact that the ICC is fundamentally sound and that its role is as necessary as when it was first established. As Richard Goldstone, former chief prosecutor of the United Nations International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, has said, ‘If there were no ICC in existence today, many people in many countries would be agitating for and demanding one. That we have one is a singular achievement. It behoves us to make it the best possible and to assist it, as States, civil society, and individuals, in the best and most productive way possible.’[9]

What needs to happen

  • Cumbersome procedures, ineffective prosecutions against high-level alleged perpetrators, and weak internal management are among current criticisms of the ICC.
  • Improvements to the court’s effectiveness and credibility may be possible without amending the treaty incorporating the ICC Statute.
  • The Assembly of States Parties should review the ICC’s operations, whether or not with a group of experts, and governments should agree on improvements.
  • New rules and practices should address matters such as the election process for judges and their training.
  • Better management of expectations of the ICC among governments, civil society and the court itself is needed.
  • Governments might consider reaching their own understandings on how some provisions of the ICC Statute should be interpreted in practice.
  • Civil society organizations should be involved in any procedures for reform.

Notes

[1] See, for example, du Plessis, M., Maluwa, T. and O’Reilly, A. (2013), Africa and the International Criminal Court, London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, July 2013, https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/193415.

[2] GOV.UK (2018), ‘UK statement to ICC Assembly of States Parties 17th session’, 5 December 2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/uk-statement-to-icc-assembly-of-states-parties-17th-session.

[3] As the preamble to the ICC Statute desires. See ICC (2011), Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, p. 1, https://www.icc-cpi.int/resource-library/Documents/RS-Eng.pdf.

[4] See the speech of John Bolton, US National Security Advisor. Just Security (2018), ‘Bolton’s Remarks on the International Criminal Court’, 10 September 2018, https://www.justsecurity.org/60674/national-security-adviser-john-bolton-remarks-international-criminal-court/.

[5] Gbagbo was accused of various crimes which took place after Côte d’Ivoire’s election in 2010, in which Gbagbo lost power to Alassane Ouattara. The case was terminated by the court following a year’s hearings in which the prosecution put forward its evidence.

[6] See, for example, Guilfoyle, D. (2019), ‘Reforming the International Criminal Court: Is it Time for the Assembly of State Parties to be the adults in the room?’, EJIL:Talk! blog post, 8 May 2019, https://www.ejiltalk.org/reforming-the-international-criminal-court-is-it-time-for-the-assembly-of-state-parties-to-be-the-adults-in-the-room/.

[7] Al Hussein, Z. R., Stagno Ugarte, B., Wenaweser, C. and Intelman, T. (2019), ‘The International Criminal Court Needs Fixing’, Atlantic Council, 24 April 2019, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-international-criminal-court-needs-fixing.

[8] Ibid.

[9] Goldstone, R. (2019), ‘Acquittals by the International Criminal Court’, EJIL:Talk! blog post, 18 January 2019, https://www.ejiltalk.org/acquittals-by-the-international-criminal-court/. Richard Goldstone is also a former justice of the Constitutional Court of South Africa.

This essay was produced for the 2019 edition of Chatham House Expert Perspectives – our annual survey of risks and opportunities in global affairs – in which our researchers identify areas where the current sets of rules, institutions and mechanisms for peaceful international cooperation are falling short, and present ideas for reform and modernization.




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Tackling Cyber Disinformation in Elections: Applying International Human Rights Law

Research Event

6 November 2019 - 5:30pm to 7:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Susie Alegre, Barrister and Associate Tenant, Doughty Street Chambers
Evelyn Aswad, Professor of Law and the Herman G. Kaiser Chair in International Law, University of Oklahoma
Barbora Bukovská, Senior Director for Law and Policy, Article 19
Kate Jones, Director, Diplomatic Studies Programme, University of Oxford
Chair: Harriet Moynihan, Associate Fellow, International Law Programme, Chatham House

Cyber operations are increasingly used by political parties, their supporters and foreign states to influence electorates – from algorithms promoting specific messages to micro-targeting based on personal data and the creation of filter bubbles.
 
The risks of digital tools spreading disinformation and polarizing debate, as opposed to deepening democratic engagement, have been highlighted by concerns over cyber interference in the UK’s Brexit referendum, the 2016 US presidential elections and in Ukraine. 
 
While some governments are adopting legislation in an attempt to address some of these issues, for example Germany’s ‘NetzDG’ law and France’s ‘Law against the manipulation of information’, other countries have proposed an independent regulator as in the case of the UK’s Online Harms white paper. Meanwhile, the digital platforms, as the curators of content, are under increasing pressure to take their own measures to address data mining and manipulation in the context of elections. 

How do international human rights standards, for example on freedom of thought, expression and privacy, guide the use of digital technology in the electoral context? What practical steps can governments and technology actors take to ensure policies, laws and practices are in line with these fundamental standards? And with a general election looming in the UK, will these steps come soon enough?
 
This event brings together a wide range of stakeholders including civil society, the tech sector, legal experts and government, coincides with the publication of a Chatham House research paper on disinformation, elections and the human rights framework

Jacqueline Rowe

Programme Assistant, International Law Programme
020 7389 3287




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Sovereignty and Non-Intervention: The Application of International Law to State Cyberattacks

Research Event

4 December 2019 - 5:30pm to 7:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Douglas, Legal Director, GCHQ
Zhixiong Huang, Luojia Chair of International Law, Wuhan University
Nemanja Malisevic, Director of Digital Diplomacy, Microsoft
Harriet Moynihan, Associate Fellow, International Law Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Elizabeth Wilmshurst, Distinguished Fellow, International Law Programme, Chatham House

International law applies to cyber operations – but views differ on exactly how. Does state-sponsored interference in another state's affairs using cyber means – for example,  disinformation campaigns in elections, disabling government websites, or disrupting transport systems – breach international law? If so, on what basis and how are the principles of sovereignty and non-intervention relevant? States are increasingly attributing cyber operations to other states and engaging in the debate on how international law applies, including circumstances that would justify countermeasures.

As states meet to debate these issues at the UN, the panel will explore how international law regulates cyberoperations by states, consider the prospects of progress at the UN, and assess the value of other initiatives.

This event coincides with the launch of a Chatham House research paper which analyses how the principles of sovereignty and intervention apply in the context of cyberoperations, and considers a way forward for agreeing a common understanding of cyber norms.

This event will bring together a broad group of actors, including policymakers, the private sector, legal experts and civil society, and will be followed by a drinks reception.

 

Jacqueline Rowe

Programme Assistant, International Law Programme
020 7389 3287




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Security and Prosperity in Asia: The Role of International Law

1 November 2019

The 'Security and Prosperity in Asia' conference looked at the impact of international law in the Asia-Pacific with a focus on regional economic and security issues such as the South China Sea disputes.

Security and Prosperity in Asia Cover Image.jpg

Singapore skyline at sunset, 2016. Photo: Getty Images.

About the Conference

At a time of geopolitical uncertainty and with multilateralism under pressure, this conference brought together diverse actors to explore the evolving role of international law on critical security and economic issues in the Asia-Pacific. From trade agreements to deep-sea mining, cyberwarfare to territorial disputes, the breadth of the discussion illustrated the growing reach of international law in the region.

Hosted by the International Law Programme and the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House on 27 March 2019, the conference focused on three themes: trade and investment, maritime security and governance, and emerging security challenges. What trends are emerging in terms of engagement with international law in the region, and how can international standards play a greater role in encouraging collaboration and reducing tensions? And, with the eastward shift in geopolitical power, how will Asia-Pacific states shape the future of international law?




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Investigating Violations of International Humanitarian Law

Research Event

21 January 2020 - 5:30pm to 7:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Andrew Cayley, Director, Service Prosecuting Authority, UK Ministry of Defence
Larry Lewis, Vice President and Director, Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence, CNA
Jelena Pejic, Senior Legal Adviser, International Committee of the Red Cross
Chair: Elizabeth Wilmshurst, Distinguished Fellow, International Law Programme, Chatham House
Countries should have adequate systems in place for investigating violations of international humanitarian law, for launching criminal prosecutions for war crimes and for inquiring into responsibility for unlawful actions of national armed forces. There also needs to be proper counting and recording of the civilian casualties of military operations.
 
This event, which will be introduced by the director of the UK Service Prosecuting Authority, Andrew Cayley, will discuss the new report by the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law, Guidelines on Investigating Violations of International Humanitarian Law: Law, Policy and Good Practice, as well as the problems and challenges associated with recording civilian casualties of armed conflict.
 
This meeting is the third in a series of three commemorating the 70th anniversary of the 1949 Geneva Conventions supported by the British Red Cross. It will be followed by a drinks reception.

Jacqueline Rowe

Programme Assistant, International Law Programme
020 7389 3287




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The Application of International Law to State Cyberattacks: Sovereignty and Non-Intervention

2 December 2019

Hostile cyber operations by one state against another state are increasingly common. This paper analyzes the application of the sovereignty and non-intervention principles in relation to states’ cyber operations in another state below the threshold of the use of force. 

Harriet Moynihan

Senior Research Fellow, International Law Programme

2019-11-29-Intl-Law-Cyberattacks.jpg

A computer hacked by a virus known as Petya. The Petya ransomware cyberattack hit computers of Russian and Ukrainian companies on 27 June 2017. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • The vast majority of state-to-state cyberattacks consist of persistent, low-level intrusions that take place below the threshold of use of force. International law, including the principle of non-intervention in another state’s internal affairs and the principle of sovereignty, applies to these cyber operations.
  • It is not clear whether any unauthorized cyber intrusion would violate the target state’s sovereignty, or whether there is a threshold in operation. While some would like to set limits by reference to effects of the cyber activity, at this time such limits are not reflected in customary international law. The assessment of whether sovereignty has been violated therefore has to be made on a case by case basis, if no other more specific rules of international law apply.
  • In due course, further state practice and opinio iuris may give rise to an emerging cyber-specific understanding of sovereignty, just as specific rules deriving from the sovereignty principle have crystallized in other areas of international law.
  • Before a principle of due diligence can be invoked in the cyber context, further work is needed by states to agree upon rules as to what might be expected of a state in this context.
  • The principle of non-intervention applies to a state’s cyber operations as it does to other state activities. It consists of coercive behaviour by one state that deprives the target state of its free will in relation to the exercise of its sovereign functions in order to compel an outcome in, or conduct with respect to, a matter reserved to the target state.
  • In practice, activities that contravene the non-intervention principle and activities that violates sovereignty will often overlap.
  • In order to reach agreement on how international law applies to states’ cyber operations below the level of use of force, states should put their views on record, where possible giving examples of when they consider that an obligation may be breached, as states such as the UK, Australia, France and the Netherlands have done.
  • Further discussion between states should focus on how the rules apply to practical examples of state-sponsored cyber operations. There is likely to be more commonality about specific applications of the law than there is about abstract principles.
  • The prospects of a general treaty in this area are still far off. In due course, there may be benefit in considering limited rules, for example on due diligence and a prohibition on attacking critical infrastructure, before tackling broad principles.




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Determination of globotriaosylceramide analogs in the organs of a mouse model of Fabry disease [Lipids]

Fabry disease is a heritable lipid disorder caused by the low activity of α-galactosidase A and characterized by the systemic accumulation of globotriaosylceramide (Gb3). Recent studies have reported a structural heterogeneity of Gb3 in Fabry disease, including Gb3 isoforms with different fatty acids and Gb3 analogs with modifications on the sphingosine moiety. However, Gb3 assays are often performed only on the selected Gb3 isoforms. To precisely determine the total Gb3 concentration, here we established two methods for determining both Gb3 isoforms and analogs. One was the deacylation method, involving Gb3 treatment with sphingolipid ceramide N-deacylase, followed by an assay of the deacylated products, globotriaosylsphingosine (lyso-Gb3) and its analogs, by ultra-performance LC coupled to tandem MS (UPLC-MS/MS). The other method was a direct assay established in the present study for 37 Gb3 isoforms and analogs/isoforms by UPLC-MS/MS. Gb3s from the organs of symptomatic animals of a Fabry disease mouse model were mainly Gb3 isoforms and two Gb3 analogs, such as Gb3(+18) containing the lyso-Gb3(+18) moiety and Gb3(−2) containing the lyso-Gb3(−2) moiety. The total concentrations and Gb3 analog distributions determined by the two methods were comparable. Gb3(+18) levels were high in the kidneys (24% of total Gb3) and the liver (13%), and we observed Gb3(−2) in the heart (10%) and the kidneys (5%). These results indicate organ-specific expression of Gb3 analogs, insights that may lead to a deeper understanding of the pathophysiology of Fabry disease.




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Certain ortho-hydroxylated brominated ethers are promiscuous kinase inhibitors that impair neuronal signaling and neurodevelopmental processes [Cell Biology]

The developing nervous system is remarkably sensitive to environmental signals, including disruptive toxins, such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). PBDEs are an environmentally pervasive class of brominated flame retardants whose neurodevelopmental toxicity mechanisms remain largely unclear. Using dissociated cortical neurons from embryonic Rattus norvegicus, we found here that chronic exposure to 6-OH–BDE-47, one of the most prevalent hydroxylated PBDE metabolites, suppresses both spontaneous and evoked neuronal electrical activity. On the basis of our previous work on mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK)/extracellular signal-related kinase (ERK) (MEK) biology and our observation that 6-OH–BDE-47 is structurally similar to kinase inhibitors, we hypothesized that certain hydroxylated PBDEs mediate neurotoxicity, at least in part, by impairing the MEK–ERK axis of MAPK signal transduction. We tested this hypothesis on three experimental platforms: 1) in silico, where modeling ligand–protein docking suggested that 6-OH–BDE-47 is a promiscuous ATP-competitive kinase inhibitor; 2) in vitro in dissociated neurons, where 6-OH–BDE-47 and another specific hydroxylated BDE metabolite similarly impaired phosphorylation of MEK/ERK1/2 and activity-induced transcription of a neuronal immediate early gene; and 3) in vivo in Drosophila melanogaster, where developmental exposures to 6-OH–BDE-47 and a MAPK inhibitor resulted in offspring displaying similarly increased frequency of mushroom-body β–lobe midline crossing, a metric of axonal guidance. Taken together, our results support that certain ortho-hydroxylated PBDE metabolites are promiscuous kinase inhibitors and can cause disruptions of critical neurodevelopmental processes, including neuronal electrical activity, pre-synaptic functions, MEK–ERK signaling, and axonal guidance.




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Modulation of natural HLA-B*27:05 ligandome by ankylosing spondylitis-associated endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 2 (ERAP2)

Elena Lorente
Apr 7, 2020; 0:RA120.002014v1-mcp.RA120.002014
Research




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Immediate adaptation analysis implicates BCL6 as an EGFR-TKI combination therapy target in NSCLC

Yan Zhou Tran
Mar 31, 2020; 0:RA120.002036v1-mcp.RA120.002036
Research




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Cybersecurity in the Commonwealth: Building the Foundations of Effective National Responses in the Caribbean

Invitation Only Research Event

8 March 2019 - 9:00am to 5:30pm

Bridgetown, Barbados

Event participants

Joyce Hakmeh, Cyber Research Fellow, International Security Department, Chatham House

This workshop is the second in a series in the 'Implementing the Commonwealth Cybersecurity Agenda' project. The workshop aims to provide a multi-stakeholder pan-Commonwealth platform to discuss how to take the implementation of the 'Commonwealth Cyber Declaration' forward with a focus on the second pillar of the declaration – building the foundations of an effective national cybersecurity response with eight action points. 

As such, the workshop gathers different project implementers under the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s Cyber Programme, in addition to other key relevant stakeholders from the global level, to explore ongoing initiatives which aim to deliver one or more of pillar two’s action points.

The workshop addresses issues from a global perspective and a Commonwealth perspective and will include presentations from selected partners from different Commonwealth countries.

Calum Inverarity

Research Analyst and Coordinator, International Security Department
+44 (0) 207 957 5751




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Cybersecurity of NATO’s Space-based Strategic Assets

1 July 2019

Almost all modern military engagements rely on space-based assets, but cyber vulnerabilities can undermine confidence in the performance of strategic systems. This paper will evaluate the threats, vulnerabilities and consequences of cyber risks to strategic systems.

Dr Beyza Unal

Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme

2019-06-25-Space-Cybersecurity.jpg

The radar domes of RAF Menwith Hill, reported to be the biggest spy base in the world, dominate the skyline on 30 October 2007 in Harrogate, UK. Photo: Getty Images

Summary

  • All satellites depend on cyber technology including software, hardware and other digital components. Any threat to a satellite’s control system or available bandwidth poses a direct challenge to national critical assets.
  • NATO’s missions and operations are conducted in the air, land, cyber and maritime domains. Space-based architecture is fundamental to the provision of data and services in each of these contexts. The critical dependency on space has resulted in new cyber risks that disproportionately affect mission assurance. Investing in mitigation measures and in the resilience of space systems for the military is key to achieving protection in all domains.
  • Almost all modern military engagements rely on space-based assets. During the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, 68 per cent of US munitions were guided utilizing space-based means (including laser-, infrared- and satellite-guided munitions); up sharply from 10 per cent in 1990–91, during the first Gulf war. In 2001, 60 per cent of the weapons used by the US in Afghanistan were precision-guided munitions, many of which had the capability to use information provided by space-based assets to correct their own positioning to hit a target.
  • NATO does not own satellites. It owns and operates a few terrestrial elements, such as satellite communications anchor stations and terminals. It requests access to products and services – such as space weather reports and satellite overflight reports provided via satellite reconnaissance advance notice systems – but does not have direct access to satellites: it is up to individual NATO member states to determine whether they allow access.
  • Cyber vulnerabilities undermine confidence in the performance of strategic systems. As a result, rising uncertainty in information and analysis continues to impact the credibility of deterrence and strategic stability. Loss of trust in technology also has implications for determining the source of a malicious attack (attribution), strategic calculus in crisis decision-making and may increase the risk of misperception.




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Understanding NATO Obligations Under the NPT

The objective of the project is to understand Alliance obligations within the framework of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament treaties.

Examining obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and exploring new approaches that NATO could adopt to reconcile strategic stability with nuclear disarmament policies which could be introduced at the 2020 NPT Review Conference (RevCon).

The project facilitates the reconciliation of different positions in advance of the RevCon by providing a platform for stakeholders to communicate their respective positions and engage in constructive dialogue. Key research findings and contemporary analysis will be disseminated to officials and the policy community.

Through dialogue and research, the project aims to reduce polarisation in the nuclear field and consequently lay a foundation for increased collaboration during the discussions. It also provides a unique opportunity for NATO countries to explore specific new approaches, including in relation to identifying and analysing relevant geopolitical conditions for nuclear disarmament measures that will inform their inputs into the RevCon and related policy framework discussions.

This project is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.




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Nuclear Weapons: Innovative Approaches for the Complex International Security Environment

This programme of work addresses the conundrum of nuclear weapons as a wicked problem in a complex adaptive system.

Understanding the complexity and the wickedness of the situation allows analysts and strategic planners to approach these complex and intractable issues in new and transformative ways – with a better chance of coping or succeeding and reducing the divisions between experts.

Using complexity theory, a complex adaptive system representing the international system and its interaction with the environment can be represented through an interactive visualization tool that will aid thought processes and policy decision-making. 

Until recently, analysts did not have the tools to be able to create models that could represent the complexity of the international system and the role that nuclear weapons play. Now that these tools are available, analysts should use them to enable decision-makers to gain insights into the range of possible outcomes from a set of possible actions.

This programme builds on work by Chatham House on cyber security and artificial intelligence (AI) in the nuclear/strategic realms.

In order to approach nuclear weapons as wicked problems in a complex adaptive system from different and sometimes competing perspectives, the programme of work involves the wider community of specialists who do not agree on what constitutes the problems of nuclear weapons nor on what are the desired solutions.

Different theories of deterrence, restraint and disarmament are tested. The initiative is international and inclusive, paying attention to gender, age and other aspects of diversity, and the network of MacArthur Grantees are given the opportunity to participate in the research, including in the writing of research papers, so that the complexity modelling can be tested against a wide range of approaches and hypotheses.

In addition, a Senior Reference Group will work alongside the programme, challenging its outcome and findings, and evaluating and guiding the direction of the research.

This project is supported by the MacArthur Foundation.




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Iran Workshop Series: Domestic, Regional and International Outlook

Invitation Only Research Event

17 December 2019 - 10:00am to 3:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

After a summer of regional tensions and continued uncertainty regarding the future of the JCPOA, the Chatham House MENA Programme held a closed workshop to examine the impact of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.

Discussions focused on the domestic developments and challenges inside Iran, prospects for new negotiations with Iran, and the regional issues facing the country. Participants also considered the differences between American and European approaches towards Iran.

 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Unpacking the role of religion in political transnationalism: the case of the Shi'a Iraqi diaspora since 2003

4 March 2020 , Volume 96, Number 2

Oula Kadhum

This article explores the role of religion in political transnationalism using the case of the Shi'a Iraqi diaspora since 2003. The article focuses on three areas that capture important trends in Shi'a transnationalism and their implications for transnational Shi'a identity politics. These include Shi'a diasporic politics, transnational Shi'a civic activism, and the cultural production of Iraqi Shi'a identity through pilgrimages, rituals and new practices. It is argued that understanding Shi'a Islam and identity formation requires adopting a transnational lens. The evolution of Shi'a Islam is not only a result of the dictates of the Shi'a clerical centres, and how they influence Shi'a populations abroad, but also the transnational interrelationships and links to holy shrine cities, Shi'i national and international politics, humanitarianism and commemorations and rituals. The article demonstrates that Shi'a political transnationalism is unexceptional in that it echoes much of the literature on diasporic politics and development where diaspora involve themselves from afar in the politics and societies of their countries of origin. At the same time, it shows the exceptionalism of Shi'a diasporic movements, in that their motivations and mobilizations are contributing to the reification of sectarian geographical and social borders, creating a transnationalism that is defined by largely Shi'a networks, spaces, actors and causes. The case of Shi'a political transnationalism towards Iraq shows that this is increasing the distance between Shi'is and Iraq's other communities, simultaneously fragmenting Iraq's national unity while deepening Shi'a identity and politics both nationally and supra-nationally.




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Webinar: Reimagining the Role of State and Non-State Actors in (Re)building National Health Systems in the Arab World

Research Event

22 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Fadi El-Jardali, Professor of Health Policy and Systems, American University of Beirut
Moderator: Nadim Houry, Executive Director, Arab Reform Initiative

As new cases of COVID-19 continue to surge, countries around the world struggle to mitigate the public health and economic effects of the virus. It is becoming increasingly clear that an effective pandemic response requires a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach. In the Arab world, where health systems are already strained by armed conflicts and displaced populations, a whole-of-society response to the pandemic is particularly critical as countries have become increasingly dependent on non-state actors, notably the private sector, for healthcare provision and any response that includes the state alone may not be sufficient to address the pandemic.

In a recent article, Fadi El-Jardali, argued that while the pandemic will have grave health and economic consequences for years to come, it brings with it a valuable opportunity to re-envision the role of state and non-state actors in strengthening health systems. The article addressed the need for increased collaboration between state and non-state actors, and the rethinking of existing cooperation models to provide quality healthcare services for all.  

In this webinar, part of the Chatham House project on the future of the state in the Middle East and North Africa, Dr El-Jardali will discuss how state and non-state actors can collaborate more effectively to address the shortcomings of national health care systems amidst the pandemic and beyond. The article’s author will share insights on the different capacities available in Arab societies that governments can draw upon to ensure that Universal Health Coverage, equity considerations and social justice are at the core of health systems.

You can express your interest in attending by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

 

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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The National Oncology PET Registry (NOPR): A monumental effort by a few leaders




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Differential expression of glucose transporters and hexokinases in prostate cancer with a neuroendocrine gene signature: a mechanistic perspective for FDG imaging of PSMA-suppressed tumors

Purpose: Although the incidence of de novo neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC) is rare, recent data suggests that low expression of prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) is associated with a spectrum of neuroendocrine (NE) hallmarks and androgen receptor (AR)-suppression in prostate cancer (PC). Previous clinical reports indicate that PCs with a phenotype similar to NE tumors can be more amenable to imaging by 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) rather than PSMA-targeting radioligands. In this study, we evaluated the association between NE gene signature and FDG uptake-associated genes including glucose transporters (GLUTs) and hexokinases, with the goal of providing a genomic signature to explain the reported FDG-avidity of PSMA-suppressed tumors. Methods: Data mining approaches, cell lines and patient-derived xenograft (PDX) models were used to study the levels of 14 members of the SLC2A family (encoding GLUT proteins), 4 members of the hexokinase family (genes: HK1 to 3 and GCK) and PSMA (FOLH1 gene) following AR-inhibition and in correlation with NE hallmarks. Also, we characterize a NE-like PC (NELPC) subset among a cohort of primary and metastatic PC samples with no NE histopathology. We measured glucose uptake in a NE-induced in vitro model and a zebrafish model by non-radioactive imaging of glucose uptake using fluorescent glucose bioprobe, GB2-Cy3. Results: This work demonstrates that a NE gene signature associates with differential expression of genes encoding GLUT and hexokinase proteins. In NELPC, elevated expression of GCK (encoding glucokinase protein) and decreased expression of SLC2A12 correlated with earlier biochemical recurrence. In tumors treated with AR-inhibitors, high expression of GCK and low expression of SLC2A12 correlated with NE histopathology and PSMA gene suppression. GLUT12-suppression and amplification of glucokinase was observed in NE-induced PC cell lines and PDX models. A higher glucose uptake was confirmed in low-PSMA tumors using a GB2-Cy3 probe in a zebrafish model. Conclusion: NE gene signature in NEPC and NELPC associates with a distinct transcriptional profile of GLUTs and HKs. PSMA-suppression correlates with GLUT12-suppression and glucokinase-amplification. Alteration of FDG uptake-associated genes correlated positively with higher glucose uptake in AR and PSMA-suppressed tumors. Zebrafish xenograft tumor models are an accurate and efficient pre-clinical method for monitoring non-radioactive glucose uptake.




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PET/MRI versus PET/CT in whole-body staging: results from a unicenter observational study in 1003 subsequent examinations

Purpose: To investigate differences between positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging (PET/MRI) and PET/computed tomography (PET/CT) in lesion detection and classification in oncological whole-body examinations and to investigate radiation exposure differences between both modalities. Material and Methods: In this prospective, single-center, observational study 1003 oncological examinations (918 patients, mean age 57.8±14.4y) were included. Patients underwent PET/CT and subsequent PET/MRI (149.8±49.7min after tracer administration). Examinations were reviewed by radiologists and nuclear medicine physicians in consensus. Additional findings, characterization of indetermiante findings in PETCT, missed findings in PET/MRI including their clinical relevance and effective dose of both modalities were investigated. McNemar’s test was used to compare lesion detection between both hybrid imaging modalities (p<0.001 indicating statistical significance). Results: Additional information in PET/MRI was reported in 26.3% (264/1003) of examinations compared to PET/CT (p<0.001). Of these, additional malignant findings were detected in 5.3% (53/1003), leading to a change in TNM-staging in 2.9% (29/1003) due to PET/MRI. Definite lesion classification of indeterminate PET/CT findings was possible in 11.1% (111/1003) with PET/MRI. In 2.9% (29/1003), lesions detected in PET/CT were not visible in PET/MRI. Malignant lesions were missed in 1.2% (12/1003) by PET/MRI leading to a change in TNM-staging in 0.5% (5/1003). The estimated mean effective-dose for whole-body PET/CT amounted to 17.6±8.7mSv in comparison to 3.6±1.4mSv in PET/MRI, resulting in a potential dose reduction of 79.6% (p<0.001). Conclusion: PET/MRI improves lesion detection and potentially reduces additional examinations in tumor staging. Especially younger patients may benefit from the clinically relevant dose reduction of PET/MRI compared to PET/CT.




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Individual mapping of innate immune cell activation is a candidate marker of patient-specific trajectories of disability worsening in Multiple Sclerosis

Objective: To develop a novel approach to generate individual maps of white matter (WM) innate immune cell activation using 18F-DPA-714 translocator protein (TSPO) positron emission tomography (PET), and to explore the relationship between these maps and individual trajectories of disability worsening in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: Patients with MS (n = 37), whose trajectories of disability worsening over the 2 years preceding study entry were calculated, and healthy controls (n = 19) underwent magnetic resonance magnetic and 18F-DPA-714 PET. A threshold of significant activation of 18F-DPA-714 binding was calculated with a voxel-wise randomized permutation-based comparison between patients and controls, and used to classify each WM voxel in patients as characterized by a significant activation of innate immune cells (DPA+) or not. Individual maps of innate immune cell activation in the WM were employed to calculate the extent of activation in WM regions-of-interests and to classify each WM lesion as "DPA-active", "DPA-inactive" or "unclassified". Results: Compared with the WM of healthy controls, patients with MS had a significantly higher percentage of DPA+ voxels in the normal-appearing WM, (NAWM in patients=24.9±9.7%; WM in controls=14.0±7.8%, p<0.001). In patients with MS, the percentage of DPA+ voxels showed a significant increase from NAWM, to perilesional areas, T2 hyperintense lesions and T1 hypointense lesions (38.1±13.5%, 45.0±17.9%, and 51.9±22.9%, respectively, p<0.001). Among the 1379 T2 lesions identified, 512 were defined as DPA-active and 258 as DPA-inactive. A higher number of lesions classified as DPA-active (OR=1.13, P = 0.009), a higher percentage of DPA+ voxels in the NAWM (OR=1.16, P = 0.009) and in T1-spin-echo lesions (OR=1.06, P = 0.036), were significantly associated with a retrospective more severe clinical trajectory in patients with MS. Conclusion: A more severe trajectory of disability worsening in MS is associated with an innate immune cells activation inside and around WM lesions. 18F-DPA-714 PET may provide a promising biomarker to identify patients at risk of severe clinical trajectory.




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Mobilizing Multinational Military Operations in Africa: Quick Fixes or Sustainable Solutions?

Research Event

25 October 2019 - 9:30am to 11:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Tony Chafer, University of Portsmouth
Professor Gordon Cumming, Cardiff University
Dr Roel van der Velde, Cardiff University
Ahmed Soliman, Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Chatham House
Dr Elisa Lopez Lucia, Université Libre de Bruxelles; University of Portsmouth
Chair: Janet Adama Mohammed, West Africa Programme Director, Conciliation Resources

Peacekeeping missions which have sought to address evolving forms of conflict and instability on the African continent – led by the United Nations, African Union and European Union – have frequently been overstretched.

Across regions including the Sahel, the Horn and West Africa, the issues of violent extremism and criminality – often set against a backdrop of collapsing or severely weakened central states – have led to the mobilisation of a diverse set of new collective responses.

These include notable African-led efforts such as AMISOM in Somalia or more recently the G5 Sahel, where France have played a pivotal role in initiating new and more ad hoc approaches to coalition-building.

As existing multinational missions in Africa continue to evolve on the ground and while new collective opportunities increasingly present themselves, it is critical for policymakers to understand how far such efforts reflect meaningful long-term solutions to the challenges of conflict and insecurity.

At this roundtable event, participants will reflect on how such missions become mobilised and legitimised, the extent to which they can be defined as ‘new’, and whether they represent a truly sustainable means to tackle the issue of conflict in Africa.

This roundtable is held in partnership with Cardiff University and the University of Portsmouth and is supported by the Leverhulme Trust.

Fergus Kell

Projects Assistant, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3671




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The Relevance of Intergovernmental Organizations to African States: The International Organization of La Francophonie

Research Event

6 November 2019 - 10:00am to 11:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Louise Mushikiwabo, Secretary General, Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF)
Chair: Bob Dewar CMG, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

African states are well represented in intergovernmental organizations linked by official language and colonial history such as the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa (CPLP) and the Commonwealth. These organizations aim to provide support in addressing matters of mutual interest – in addition to responding to significant policy challenges such as improving sustainable growth prospects and opportunities to young populations – and citizens are increasingly vocal on key issues such as democracy, human rights and the rule of law. This event series examines the importance of these intergovernmental organizations in working with their members to responsibly and sustainably respond to policy challenges in Africa.

At this event, Louise Mushikiwabo, secretary general of the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), will discuss the organisation’s relevance to African states and the future of the organization on the continent.

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS NOW CLOSED.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Diversity and Unity: African Agency in International Affairs

22 November 2019

Professor Carlos Lopes

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme
More and more, African countries are able to act in concert to stand up for the interests of the continent.

2019-11-22-AU.jpg

Delegates leave the plenary hall of the Africa Union headquarters in Addis Ababa in January 2018. Photo: Getty Images.

The conventional wisdom is that Africa is at the periphery of international affairs, and the perpetual subject – or victim – of decisions by powerful political or economic actors from outside the continent. The argument then goes on that the diversity of African countries, their atomization and fragmentation, further weakens the ability of the continent to act as a unified whole. As with much cliché about Africa, it does not tell the whole story. 

Soft vs hard power

There is no denying that the structure of international affairs, built on foundations which preceded the independence of the vast majority of African states, places limits on the continent’s ability to independently shape the course of its development and its international engagements. African countries lack the hard power that would typically allow them to be bolder in the global scene.

But Africa has long found softer approaches to exercise its agency, through international institutions and diplomatic arrangements. The collective mobilization at the level of the UN, leading up to the successful 1969 declaration by the General Assembly of apartheid as a crime against humanity, is a good example of early post-independence collective influence.

The last two decades have further empowered African countries, as economic development has been translated into increased diplomatic capacity, and socioeconomic potential has given weight to a more assertive leadership.

There are many examples, including: the successful integration of African priorities in the Sustainable Development Goals, notably financing for development; the push to include a substantial climate financing component for developing countries in the Paris Agreement; enhanced coordination between African non-permanent members of the UN Security Council; the condemnation of the International Criminal Court; or the solid resistance to reversals of the Doha Round at the World Trade Organization.

A fragmented unity?

It is also correct to note that individual African countries are quite diverse. Today, there are 55 member states of the African Union (AU); 30 are middle income economies with the rest towards the bottom of various indexes measuring progress and wellbeing. Socioeconomic and political divergences undeniably exist within the continent. But these factors have not prevented the continent from demonstrating some impressive feats of collective agency.

The internal processes put in place by the AU have created a level of continental diplomacy which is more coordinated than any other continental block bar the EU. African countries have also proved adept at using other diplomatic alliances to exercise collective agency, for instance as the most powerful voice within the G77, a coalition of developing nations.

Africa’s Future in a Changing Global Order: Agency in International Relations

HE Jakaya Kikwete, former president of the Republic of Tanzania, addresses a Chatham House conference on the role that African states and citizens play in international relations.

This has allowed Africa to build tactical alliances with countries and blocs from across the globe, resisting being drawn into any one sphere of influence. It has thus retained ultimate control of decision-making, even on issues of traditional ‘hard’ politics, notably the establishment of the African Peace and Security Architecture and the subsequent building of African capacity to collectively manage its peace and security efforts.

Among other things, this collective political will has powered African opposition to a formal permanent presence of US Africa Command (AFRICOM) and helped resolve conflicts from West Africa to Zimbabwe and Lesotho.

Another extraordinary example of collective political resistance can be observed in the trade discussions taking place between Africa and Europe. The EU is Africa's number-one trading partner. It designed and aggressively promoted new bilateral economic partnership agreements (EPAs) at a time when Africans were busy putting together a continental free-trade area. The apparent imbalance between the collective weight of the EU and the weakness of African states seemed likely to end African aspirations to continental integration.

But, to the surprise of many, the majority of African countries were able to resist pressure to sign the EPAs. Almost 20 years into the negotiations, only 15 countries have signed them, with 5 of these being interim agreements. Comparatively, 54 African countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement in 2018, and 28 have so far ratified.

The ongoing debate between Europe and Africa on migration is an equally useful illustration of how the continent has become more protective of its interests. Despite pressure, the continent has collectively resisted attempts to externalize the EU’s internal migration management challenges to Africa. Rather, it has emphasized finding solutions that would also benefit its nationals through a mobility framework that privileges the management of intra-Africa migration.   

Diversity and unity

There are of course different levels of agency at work. The power of African countries is uneven both vis-à-vis the international community and within the continent itself, where development pathways are increasingly divergent. Achieving collective positions and joint action demands the careful balancing of regional and bilateral objectives and assuaging multiple – and sometimes contradictory – concerns. It is not easy in Africa, like for any other region.

However, there is no denying that Africans have realized the need for bolder action in the international arena, and the importance of unity in achieving their goals. The call by Africa’s leaders for the reform of their continental organization, the AU, demonstrates their recognition of its current limitations. This must now go beyond good intentions.

This article is the first of a series on African agency in international affairs.




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The African Continental Free Trade Area Could Boost African Agency in International Trade

10 December 2019

Tighisti Amare

Assistant Director, Africa Programme

Treasure Thembisile Maphanga

Director, Trade and Industry, African Union Commission (2012–19)
The agreement, which entered into force in May, could be a major step for Africa’s role in international trade, if the continent can overcome barriers to implementation.

2019-12-10-Niger.jpg

Delegates arrive at the closing ceremony of the African Union summit in Niger in July. Photo: Getty Images.

The entry into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on 30 May, after only three years of negotiations, is an economic, political and diplomatic milestone for the African Union (AU) and its member states, crucial for economic growth, job creation, and making Africa a meaningful player in international trade. But the continent will have to work together to ensure that the potential benefits are fully realized.

A necessary innovation

With its advances in maintaining peace and security, abundant natural resources, high growth rates, improved linkages to global supply chains and a youthful population, Africa is emerging as a new global centre of economic growth, increasingly sought after as a partner by the world’s biggest economies. Governments from across Africa have been taking a more assertive role in international markets, including through proactive diversification of trading partners, and the continent remains a strong advocate for the multilateral trading system.

However, this is not yet reflected in outcomes. The African Union does not have observer status at the World Trade Organization, despite diplomatic efforts in the past decade. Africa has less than a three per cent share of global trade, and the growing trend towards protectionism across the global economy may only increase the vulnerability of a disunited Africa. Its fractured internal market means that trade within Africa is lower than for any other region on the globe, with intra-African trade just 18 per cent of overall exports, as compared to 70 per cent in Europe.

The AfCFTA is the continent’s tool to address the disparity between Africa’s growing economic significance and its peripheral place in the global trade system, to build a bridge between present fragmentation and future prosperity. It is an ambitious, comprehensive agreement covering trade in goods, services, investment, intellectual property rights and competition policy. It has been signed by all of Africa’s states with the exception of Eritrea.

It is the AU's Agenda 2063 flagship project, brought about by the decisions taken at the January 2012 African Union Summit to boost intra-African trade and to fast track the establishment of the Continental Free Trade Area. It builds upon ambitions enshrined in successive agreements including the Lagos Plan of Action and the Abuja Treaty. Access to new regional markets and reduced non-tariff barriers are intended to help companies scale up, driving job creation and poverty reduction, as well as attracting inward investment to even Africa’s smaller economies.

The signing in 2018 of the instruments governing the Single Air Transport Market and the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, Right of Residence and Right of Establishment provided another step towards the gradual elimination of barriers to the movement of goods, services and people within the continent.

Tests to come

However, while progress is being made towards the ratification of the AfCFTA, much remains to be done before African countries can fully trade under its terms. The framework for implementation is still under development, and the creation of enabling infrastructure that is critical for connectivity will take time to develop and requires extensive investment.

Africa’s Future in a Changing Global Order: Africa’s Economic Diplomacy

Treasure Thembisile Maphanga talks about the international implications of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

So, the first test for the AfCFTA will be the level to which Africa’s leaders make it a domestic priority, and whether a consensus can be maintained across the AU’s member states as the costs of implementation become clear.

There is no guarantee that the gains of free trade will be evenly distributed. They will mainly depend on the extent to which countries embrace industrialization, liberalization of their markets and opening of their borders for free movement of goods and people – policies that some incumbent leaders may be reluctant to implement. Political will to maintain a unified negotiating position with diverse stakeholders, including the private sector, will come under increasing stress.  

A second challenge is how the AfCFTA relates to already existing trade arrangements, notably with the EU.  The AU has long preferred to pursue a continent-to-continent trading arrangement instead of the bilateral Economic Partnership Agreements being sought by the EU under the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) framework to which, with the exception of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and South Africa, all African states belong. The signing of the AfCFTA is one important step towards making this possible.

But there are currently negotiations under the ACP to replace the Cotonou Accord (the framework governing trade between ACP members and the EU, including Economic Partnership Agreements [EPAs], that is due to expire in 2020). Negotiations on the African pillar of the accord are due to take place after the AfCFTA has entered into force. So African states and the AU will face the challenge of balancing their commitment to the ACP bloc with pursuing their own interests.

And though the AfCFTA should supersede any other agreements, the EPAs or their successors, will continue to govern day-to-day trading, in parallel to the new pan-African market. It is not yet clear how these contradictions will be reconciled.

A new role for the AU?

The AU will need to play an active role as the main interlocutor with Africa´s international trading partners, with the AfCFTA secretariat being the arbiter of internal tensions and trade disputes. The AU´s engagement at continental level has to date revolved mainly around headline political diplomacy, security and peacekeeping. With the continental free market becoming a reality, an effective pivot to economic diplomacy will be critical for growth and development.

With the AfCFTA, the AU has endeavoured to address Africa’s unsustainable position in global trade, to stimulate growth, economic diversification and jobs for its growing population. Much will depend on the commitment of African leaders to maintaining a unified negotiating position to implement the agreement and the AU’s capacity to effectively move from political to economic diplomacy.




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POSTPONED: Pursuing Economic Reform and Growth in South Africa: the view from the African National Congress

Research Event

18 March 2020 - 10:30am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Paul Mashatile, Treasurer General, African National Congress (ANC)

The government of South Africa is pursuing a programme of reform to revitalize the economy, strengthen institutions and combat corruption. The State of the Nation Address (SONA) on 13 February and the budget speech of 26 February represent the most significant articulation of the government’s economic strategy. Central to this is the government’s plans for the energy sector, which is fundamental for reviving the economy, and the reform of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). But questions remain about possible divergence of the approach taken by government ministers from the policy position of the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), and what this might mean for the sustainability and progress of reform.  

At this event, Paul Mashatile, Treasurer General of the ANC, will discuss the party’s assessment of reform efforts to date and priorities for delivering on inclusive growth.

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Deep Characterization of the Human Antibody Response to Natural Infection Using Longitudinal Immune Repertoire Sequencing [Research]

Human antibody response studies are largely restricted to periods of high immune activity (e.g. vaccination). To comprehensively understand the healthy B cell immune repertoire and how this changes over time and through natural infection, we conducted immune repertoire RNA sequencing on flow cytometry-sorted B cell subsets to profile a single individual's antibodies over 11 months through two periods of natural viral infection. We found that 1) a baseline of healthy variable (V) gene usage in antibodies exists and is stable over time, but antibodies in memory cells consistently have a different usage profile relative to earlier B cell stages; 2) a single complementarity-determining region 3 (CDR3) is potentially generated from more than one VJ gene combination; and 3) IgG and IgA antibody transcripts are found at low levels in early human B cell development, suggesting that class switching may occur earlier than previously realized. These findings provide insight into immune repertoire stability, response to natural infections, and human B cell development.




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Concentration Determination of >200 Proteins in Dried Blood Spots for Biomarker Discovery and Validation [Technological Innovation and Resources]

The use of protein biomarkers as surrogates for clinical endpoints requires extensive multilevel validation including development of robust and sensitive assays for precise measurement of protein concentration. Multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) is a well-established mass-spectrometric method that can be used for reproducible protein-concentration measurements in biological specimens collected via microsampling. The dried blood spot (DBS) microsampling technique can be performed non-invasively without the expertise of a phlebotomist, and can enhance analyte stability which facilitate the application of this technique in retrospective studies while providing lower storage and shipping costs, because cold-chain logistics can be eliminated. Thus, precise, sensitive, and multiplexed methods for measuring protein concentrations in DBSs can be used for de novo biomarker discovery and for biomarker quantification or verification experiments. To achieve this goal, MRM assays were developed for multiplexed concentration measurement of proteins in DBSs.

The lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) was found to have a median total coefficient of variation (CV) of 18% for 245 proteins, whereas the median LLOQ was 5 fmol of peptide injected on column, and the median inter-day CV over 4 days for measuring endogenous protein concentration was 8%. The majority (88%) of the assays displayed parallelism, whereas the peptide standards remained stable throughout the assay workflow and after exposure to multiple freeze-thaw cycles. For 190 proteins, the measured protein concentrations remained stable in DBS stored at ambient laboratory temperature for up to 2 months. Finally, the developed assays were used to measure the concentration ranges for 200 proteins in twenty same sex, same race and age matched individuals.




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Brisbane City Council terminates $122 million IT contract

Brisbane CIty Council has terminated a $122 million IT contract that had been plagued with cost blow outs and lengthy delays.




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Labor to push for Senate inquiry into $10b government IT spend and tech wrecks

The probe would investigate a trail of blunders that have shredded the government's reputation.




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Petro-RMB? The oil trade and the internationalization of the renminbi

4 September 2019 , Volume 95, Number 5

Maha Kamel and Hongying Wang

In this article, we examine China's promotion of the renminbi (RMB) in international oil trade and explore its implications for the international currency system in the short and the long term. The article traces the rise of the RMB in international oil trade in recent years and provides an analysis of its impact on the internationalization of the Chinese currency. We argue that despite the increasing use of the yuan in oil trade in recent years, in the short term it is highly unlikely that a petro-RMB system will emerge to rival the petrodollar system. Unlike the petrodollar, which combines the qualities of a master currency, a top currency and a negotiated currency, China lacks the economic leadership and the political and geopolitical leverages to make the RMB a major petrocurrency. Although the emergence of the RMB-denominated Shanghai oil futures is an important development, the absence of highly developed financial markets and a strong legal system in China hinders its potential. In the long run, the RMB may take on a more prominent role in the international oil trade as China's weight as an oil importer rises. More importantly, the overuse of financial sanctions by the US government has begun to undermine the role of the dollar within and beyond the oil trade. In addition, the rise of alternative energy sources will diminish the centrality of oil in the world economy, thus reducing the significance of petrocurrencies—whether the dollar or the RMB—in shaping the international currency system.




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The African Continental Free Trade Area Could Boost African Agency in International Trade

10 December 2019

Tighisti Amare

Assistant Director, Africa Programme

Treasure Thembisile Maphanga

Director, Trade and Industry, African Union Commission (2012–19)
The agreement, which entered into force in May, could be a major step for Africa’s role in international trade, if the continent can overcome barriers to implementation.

2019-12-10-Niger.jpg

Delegates arrive at the closing ceremony of the African Union summit in Niger in July. Photo: Getty Images.

The entry into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on 30 May, after only three years of negotiations, is an economic, political and diplomatic milestone for the African Union (AU) and its member states, crucial for economic growth, job creation, and making Africa a meaningful player in international trade. But the continent will have to work together to ensure that the potential benefits are fully realized.

A necessary innovation

With its advances in maintaining peace and security, abundant natural resources, high growth rates, improved linkages to global supply chains and a youthful population, Africa is emerging as a new global centre of economic growth, increasingly sought after as a partner by the world’s biggest economies. Governments from across Africa have been taking a more assertive role in international markets, including through proactive diversification of trading partners, and the continent remains a strong advocate for the multilateral trading system.

However, this is not yet reflected in outcomes. The African Union does not have observer status at the World Trade Organization, despite diplomatic efforts in the past decade. Africa has less than a three per cent share of global trade, and the growing trend towards protectionism across the global economy may only increase the vulnerability of a disunited Africa. Its fractured internal market means that trade within Africa is lower than for any other region on the globe, with intra-African trade just 18 per cent of overall exports, as compared to 70 per cent in Europe.

The AfCFTA is the continent’s tool to address the disparity between Africa’s growing economic significance and its peripheral place in the global trade system, to build a bridge between present fragmentation and future prosperity. It is an ambitious, comprehensive agreement covering trade in goods, services, investment, intellectual property rights and competition policy. It has been signed by all of Africa’s states with the exception of Eritrea.

It is the AU's Agenda 2063 flagship project, brought about by the decisions taken at the January 2012 African Union Summit to boost intra-African trade and to fast track the establishment of the Continental Free Trade Area. It builds upon ambitions enshrined in successive agreements including the Lagos Plan of Action and the Abuja Treaty. Access to new regional markets and reduced non-tariff barriers are intended to help companies scale up, driving job creation and poverty reduction, as well as attracting inward investment to even Africa’s smaller economies.

The signing in 2018 of the instruments governing the Single Air Transport Market and the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, Right of Residence and Right of Establishment provided another step towards the gradual elimination of barriers to the movement of goods, services and people within the continent.

Tests to come

However, while progress is being made towards the ratification of the AfCFTA, much remains to be done before African countries can fully trade under its terms. The framework for implementation is still under development, and the creation of enabling infrastructure that is critical for connectivity will take time to develop and requires extensive investment.

Africa’s Future in a Changing Global Order: Africa’s Economic Diplomacy

Treasure Thembisile Maphanga talks about the international implications of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

So, the first test for the AfCFTA will be the level to which Africa’s leaders make it a domestic priority, and whether a consensus can be maintained across the AU’s member states as the costs of implementation become clear.

There is no guarantee that the gains of free trade will be evenly distributed. They will mainly depend on the extent to which countries embrace industrialization, liberalization of their markets and opening of their borders for free movement of goods and people – policies that some incumbent leaders may be reluctant to implement. Political will to maintain a unified negotiating position with diverse stakeholders, including the private sector, will come under increasing stress.  

A second challenge is how the AfCFTA relates to already existing trade arrangements, notably with the EU.  The AU has long preferred to pursue a continent-to-continent trading arrangement instead of the bilateral Economic Partnership Agreements being sought by the EU under the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) framework to which, with the exception of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and South Africa, all African states belong. The signing of the AfCFTA is one important step towards making this possible.

But there are currently negotiations under the ACP to replace the Cotonou Accord (the framework governing trade between ACP members and the EU, including Economic Partnership Agreements [EPAs], that is due to expire in 2020). Negotiations on the African pillar of the accord are due to take place after the AfCFTA has entered into force. So African states and the AU will face the challenge of balancing their commitment to the ACP bloc with pursuing their own interests.

And though the AfCFTA should supersede any other agreements, the EPAs or their successors, will continue to govern day-to-day trading, in parallel to the new pan-African market. It is not yet clear how these contradictions will be reconciled.

A new role for the AU?

The AU will need to play an active role as the main interlocutor with Africa´s international trading partners, with the AfCFTA secretariat being the arbiter of internal tensions and trade disputes. The AU´s engagement at continental level has to date revolved mainly around headline political diplomacy, security and peacekeeping. With the continental free market becoming a reality, an effective pivot to economic diplomacy will be critical for growth and development.

With the AfCFTA, the AU has endeavoured to address Africa’s unsustainable position in global trade, to stimulate growth, economic diversification and jobs for its growing population. Much will depend on the commitment of African leaders to maintaining a unified negotiating position to implement the agreement and the AU’s capacity to effectively move from political to economic diplomacy.




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Influencing the social impact of financial systems: alternative strategies

4 March 2020 , Volume 96, Number 2

Lee-Anne Sim

The social impact of the global financial crisis brought global and domestic financial systems into public focus. While over the last ten years governments have introduced a range of regulatory reforms, there are still low levels of public trust in financial sectors, and academics continue to express their concerns about financial systems and their desire for more influence. This is particularly the case for those framing their evaluation of the quality of financial systems in terms of social values. This article offers those seeking more influence over the social values of financial systems, a fresh perspective on their available strategic options for influencing outcomes. It argues that they should consider strategies aimed at making allies of financial sectors and regulators in influencing change. The main advantage of these alliance strategies is that they address key constraints to influence, as identified in existing scholarship, which are difficult to relax because they are tied to features inherent in financial systems. By addressing these constraints, alliance strategies could increase the likelihood that financial system outcomes align more closely with their preferred social values.




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Webinar: Coordinating the Fight Against Financial Crime

Corporate Members Event Webinar

1 July 2020 - 5:00pm to 6:00pm
Add to Calendar

Che Sidanius, Global Head of Regulation & Industry Affairs, Refinitiv

Patricia Sullivan, Global Co-Head, Financial Crime Compliance, Standard Chartered

Dame Sara Thornton, Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner, UK

Chair: Tom Keatinge, Director, Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies, RUSI

 

Illicit finance not only threatens financial stability and inclusion but also provides support for terrorism and is a primary incentive for human trafficking, the illegal wildlife trade and narcotics smuggling. Frequently, actors capitalize on loopholes and inefficiencies resulting from the lack of a coordinated response to financial crime and an underpowered global system for tracking illicit financial flows. Enhanced public-private partnerships, in addition to investment in tackling financial crime from governments, international bodies and private industries, are necessary to develop regulatory frameworks, effective responses and valuable coordination between law enforcement, policymakers, regulators and financial institutions. But how should businesses structure their efforts so that their business interests are protected and the work they do is of use to others fighting financial crime?

This webinar will explore solutions to enable public-private partnerships to work together to combat financial crime. What do successful partnerships need from each side to ensure that the work being done is efficient and effective? How can the industry’s internal effectiveness impact the ‘real-world’ victims? And what barriers impede public-private partnerships operating as a force for good? 

This event is part of a fortnightly series of 'Business in Focus' webinars reflecting on the impact of COVID-19 on areas of particular professional interest for our corporate members and giving circles.

Not a corporate member? Find out more.




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Dynamics of sphingolipids and the serine palmitoyltransferase complex in rat oligodendrocytes during myelination

Deanna L. Davis
Apr 1, 2020; 61:505-522
Research Articles