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The human proteome project: Current state and future direction [Invited]

After successful completion of the Human Genome Project (HGP), HUPO has recently officially launched a global Human Proteome Project (HPP) which is designed to map the entire human protein set. Given the presence of about 30% undisclosed proteins out of 20,300 protein gene products, a systematic global effort is necessary to achieve this goal with respect to protein abundance, distribution, subcellular localization, interaction with other biomolecules, and functions at specific time points. As a general experimental strategy, HPP groups employ the three working pillars for HPP: mass spectrometry, antibody capture, and bioinformatics tools and knowledge base. The HPP participants will take advantage of the output and cross-analyses from the ongoing HUPO initiatives and a chromosome-based protein mapping strategy, termed C-HPP with many national teams currently engaged. In addition, numerous biologically-driven projects will be stimulated and facilitated by the HPP. Timely planning with proper governance of HPP will deliver a protein parts list, reagents and tools for protein studies and analyses, and a stronger basis for personalized medicine. HUPO urges each national research funding agency and the scientific community at large to identify their preferred pathways to participate in aspects of this highly promising project in a HPP consortium of funders and investigators.




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The ProteoRed MIAPE web toolkit: A user-friendly framework to connect and share proteomics standards [Technology]

The development of the HUPO-PSI's (Proteomics Standards Initiative) standard data formats and MIAPE (Minimum Information About a Proteomics Experiment) guidelines should improve proteomics data sharing within the scientific community. Proteomics journals have encouraged the use of these standards and guidelines to improve the quality of experimental reporting and ease the evaluation and publication of manuscripts. However, there is an evident lack of bioinformatics tools specifically designed to create and edit standard file formats and reports, or embed them within proteomics workflows. In this article, we describe a new web-based software suite (The ProteoRed MIAPE web toolkit) that performs several complementary roles related to proteomic data standards. Firstly, it can verify the reports fulfill the minimum information requirements of the corresponding MIAPE modules, highlighting inconsistencies or missing information. Secondly, the toolkit can convert several XML-based data standards directly into human readable MIAPE reports stored within the ProteoRed MIAPE repository. Finally, it can also perform the reverse operation, allowing users to export from MIAPE reports into XML files for computational processing, data sharing or public database submission. The toolkit is thus the first application capable of automatically linking the PSI's MIAPE modules with the corresponding XML data exchange standards, enabling bidirectional conversions. This toolkit is freely available at http://www.proteored.org/MIAPE/.




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Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves Protein Quantification of Global Proteomic Measurements [Technology]

As the capability of mass spectrometry-based proteomics has matured, tens of thousands of peptides can be measured simultaneously, which has the benefit of offering a systems view of protein expression. However, a major challenge is that with an increase in throughput, protein quantification estimation from the native measured peptides has become a computational task. A limitation to existing computationally-driven protein quantification methods is that most ignore protein variation, such as alternate splicing of the RNA transcript and post-translational modifications or other possible proteoforms, which will affect a significant fraction of the proteome. The consequence of this assumption is that statistical inference at the protein level, and consequently downstream analyses, such as network and pathway modeling, have only limited power for biomarker discovery. Here, we describe a Bayesian model (BP-Quant) that uses statistically derived peptides signatures to identify peptides that are outside the dominant pattern, or the existence of multiple over-expressed patterns to improve relative protein abundance estimates. It is a research-driven approach that utilizes the objectives of the experiment, defined in the context of a standard statistical hypothesis, to identify a set of peptides exhibiting similar statistical behavior relating to a protein. This approach infers that changes in relative protein abundance can be used as a surrogate for changes in function, without necessarily taking into account the effect of differential post-translational modifications, processing, or splicing in altering protein function. We verify the approach using a dilution study from mouse plasma samples and demonstrate that BP-Quant achieves similar accuracy as the current state-of-the-art methods at proteoform identification with significantly better specificity. BP-Quant is available as a MatLab ® and R packages at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/BP-Quant.




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Translating Divergent Environmental Stresses into a Common Proteome Response through Hik33 in a Model Cyanobacterium [Research]

The histidine kinase Hik33 plays important roles in mediating cyanobacterial response to divergent types of abiotic stresses including cold, salt, high light (HL), and osmotic stresses. However, how these functions are regulated by Hik33 remains to be addressed. Using a hik33-deficient strain (hik33) of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 (Synechocystis) and quantitative proteomics, we found that Hik33 depletion induces differential protein expression highly similar to that induced by divergent types of stresses. This typically includes downregulation of proteins in photosynthesis and carbon assimilation that are necessary for cell propagation, and upregulation of heat shock proteins, chaperons, and proteases that are important for cell survival. This observation indicates that depletion of Hik33 alone mimics divergent types of abiotic stresses, and that Hik33 could be important for preventing abnormal stress response in the normal condition. Moreover, we found the majority of proteins of plasmid origin were significantly upregulated in hik33, though their biological significance remains to be addressed. Together, the systematically characterized Hik33-regulated cyanobacterial proteome, which is largely involved in stress responses, builds the molecular basis for Hik33 as a general regulator of stress responses.




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WITHDRAWN: Heralds of parallel MS: Data-independent acquisition surpassing sequential identification of data dependent acquisition in proteomics [Research]

This article has been withdrawn by the authors. This article did not comply with the editorial guidelines of MCP. Specifically, single peptide based protein identifications of 9-19% were included in the analysis and discussed in the results and conclusions. We wish to withdraw this article and resubmit a clarified, corrected manuscript for review.




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MaxQuant software for ion mobility enhanced shotgun proteomics [Technological Innovation and Resources]

Ion mobility can add a dimension to LC-MS based shotgun proteomics which has the potential to boost proteome coverage, quantification accuracy and dynamic range.  Required for this is suitable software that extracts the information contained in the four-dimensional (4D) data space spanned by m/z, retention time, ion mobility and signal intensity. Here we describe the ion mobility enhanced MaxQuant software, which utilizes the added data dimension. It offers an end to end computational workflow for the identification and quantification of peptides and proteins in LC-IMS-MS/MS shotgun proteomics data. We apply it to trapped ion mobility spectrometry (TIMS) coupled to a quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) analyzer. A highly parallelizable 4D feature detection algorithm extracts peaks which are assembled to isotope patterns. Masses are recalibrated with a non-linear m/z, retention time, ion mobility and signal intensity dependent model, based on peptides from the sample. A new matching between runs (MBR) algorithm that utilizes collisional cross section (CCS) values of MS1 features in the matching process significantly gains specificity from the extra dimension. Prerequisite for using CCS values in MBR is a relative alignment of the ion mobility values between the runs. The missing value problem in protein quantification over many samples is greatly reduced by CCS aware MBR.MS1 level label-free quantification is also implemented which proves to be highly precise and accurate on a benchmark dataset with known ground truth. MaxQuant for LC-IMS-MS/MS is part of the basic MaxQuant release and can be downloaded from http://maxquant.org.




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DEqMS: a method for accurate variance estimation in differential protein expression analysis [Technological Innovation and Resources]

Quantitative proteomics by mass spectrometry is widely used in biomarker research and basic biology research for investigation of phenotype level cellular events. Despite the wide application, the methodology for statistical analysis of differentially expressed proteins has not been unified. Various methods such as t-test, linear model and mixed effect models are used to define changes in proteomics experiments. However, none of these methods consider the specific structure of MS-data. Choices between methods, often originally developed for other types of data, are based on compromises between features such as statistical power, general applicability and user friendliness. Furthermore, whether to include proteins identified with one peptide in statistical analysis of differential protein expression varies between studies. Here we present DEqMS, a robust statistical method developed specifically for differential protein expression analysis in mass spectrometry data. In all datasets investigated there is a clear dependence of variance on the number of PSMs or peptides used for protein quantification. DEqMS takes this feature into account when assessing differential protein expression. This allows for a more accurate data-dependent estimation of protein variance and inclusion of single peptide identifications without increasing false discoveries. The method was tested in several datasets including E.coli proteome spike-in data, using both label-free and TMT-labelled quantification. In comparison to previous statistical methods used in quantitative proteomics, DEqMS showed consistently better accuracy in detecting altered protein levels compared to other statistical methods in both label-free and labelled quantitative proteomics data. DEqMS is available as an R package in Bioconductor.




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Selection of features with consistent profiles improves relative protein quantification in mass spectrometry experiments [Research]

In bottom-up mass spectrometry-based proteomics, relative protein quantification is often achieved with data-dependent acquisition (DDA), data-independent acquisition (DIA), or selected reaction monitoring (SRM). These workflows quantify proteins by summarizing the abundances of all the spectral features of the protein (e.g., precursor ions, transitions or fragments) in a single value per protein per run. When abundances of some features are inconsistent with the overall protein profile (for technological reasons such as interferences, or for biological reasons such as post-translational modifications), the protein-level summaries and the downstream conclusions are undermined. We propose a statistical approach that automatically detects spectral features with such inconsistent patterns. The detected features can be separately investigated, and if necessary removed from the dataset. We evaluated the proposed approach on a series of benchmark controlled mixtures and biological investigations with DDA, DIA and SRM data acquisitions. The results demonstrated that it can facilitate and complement manual curation of the data. Moreover, it can improve the estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of detecting differentially abundant proteins, and reproducibility of conclusions across different data processing tools. The approach is implemented as an option in the open-source R-based software MSstats.




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Proteome and phosphoproteome analysis of brown adipocytes reveals that RICTOR loss dampens global insulin/AKT signaling [Research]

Stimulating brown adipose tissue (BAT) activity represents a promising therapy for overcoming metabolic diseases. mTORC2 is important for regulating BAT metabolism, but its downstream targets have not been fully characterized. In this study, we apply proteomics and phosphoproteomics to investigate the downstream effectors of mTORC2 in brown adipocytes. We compare wild-type controls to isogenic cells with an induced knockout of the mTORC2 subunit RICTOR (Rictor-iKO) by stimulating each with insulin for a 30-minute time course. In Rictor-iKO cells, we identify decreases to the abundance of glycolytic and de novo lipogenesis enzymes, and increases to mitochondrial proteins as well as a set of proteins known to increase upon interferon stimulation. We also observe significant differences to basal phosphorylation due to chronic RICTOR loss including decreased phosphorylation of the lipid droplet protein perilipin-1 in Rictor-iKO cells, suggesting that RICTOR could be involved with regulating basal lipolysis or droplet dynamics. Finally, we observe mild dampening of acute insulin signaling response in Rictor-iKO cells, and a subset of AKT substrates exhibiting statistically significant dependence on RICTOR.




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Investigation of inter- and intra-tumoral heterogeneity of glioblastoma using TOF-SIMS [Research]

Glioblastoma (GBM) is one of the most aggressive human cancers with a median survival of less than two years. A distinguishing pathological feature of GBM is a high degree of inter- and intratumoral heterogeneity. Intertumoral heterogeneity of GBM has been extensively investigated on genomic, methylomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomics levels, however only a few studies describe intratumoral heterogeneity due to the lack of methods allowing to analyze GBM samples with high spatial resolution. Here, we applied TOF-SIMS (Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry) for the analysis of single cells and clinical samples such as paraffin and frozen tumor sections obtained from 57 patients. We developed a technique that allows us to simultaneously detect the distribution of proteins and metabolites in glioma tissue with 800 nm spatial resolution. Our results demonstrate that according to TOF-SIMS data glioma samples can be subdivided into clinically relevant groups and distinguished from the normal brain tissue. In addition, TOF-SIMS was able to elucidate differences between morphologically distinct regions of GBM within the same tumor. By staining GBM sections with gold-conjugated antibodies against Caveolin-1 we could visualize border between zones of necrotic and cellular tumor and subdivide glioma samples into groups characterized by different survival of the patients. Finally, we demonstrated that GBM contains cells that are characterized by high levels of Caveolin-1 protein and cholesterol. This population may partly represent a glioma stem cells. Collectively, our results show that the technique described here allows to analyze glioma tissues with a spatial resolution beyond reach of most of other omics approaches and the obtained data may be used to predict clinical behavior of the tumor.




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Characterization of signaling pathways associated with pancreatic {beta}-cell adaptive flexibility in compensation of obesity-linked diabetes in db/db mice [Research]

The onset of obesity-linked type 2 diabetes (T2D) is marked by an eventual failure in pancreatic β-cell function and mass that is no longer able to compensate for the inherent insulin resistance and increased metabolic load intrinsic to obesity. However, in a commonly used model of T2D, the db/db mouse, β-cells have an inbuilt adaptive flexibility enabling them to effectively adjust insulin production rates relative to the metabolic demand. Pancreatic β-cells from these animals have markedly reduced intracellular insulin stores, yet high rates of (pro)insulin secretion, together with a substantial increase in proinsulin biosynthesis highlighted by expanded rough endoplasmic reticulum and Golgi apparatus. However, when the metabolic overload and/or hyperglycemia is normalized, β-cells from db/db mice quickly restore their insulin stores and normalize secretory function. This demonstrates the β-cell’s adaptive flexibility and indicates that therapeutic approaches applied to encourage β-cell rest are capable of restoring endogenous β-cell function. However, mechanisms that regulate β-cell adaptive flexibility are essentially unknown. To gain deeper mechanistic insight into the molecular events underlying β-cell adaptive flexibility in db/db β-cells, we conducted a combined proteomic and post-translational modification specific proteomic (PTMomics) approach on islets from db/db mice and wild-type controls (WT) with or without prior exposure to normal glucose levels. We identified differential modifications of proteins involved in redox homeostasis, protein refolding, K48-linked deubiquitination, mRNA/protein export, focal adhesion, ERK1/2 signaling, and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone signaling, as well as sialyltransferase activity, associated with β-cell adaptive flexibility. These proteins are all related to proinsulin biosynthesis and processing, maturation of insulin secretory granules, and vesicular trafficking—core pathways involved in the adaptation of insulin production to meet metabolic demand. Collectively, this study outlines a novel and comprehensive global PTMome signaling map that highlights important molecular mechanisms related to the adaptive flexibility of β-cell function, providing improved insight into disease pathogenesis of T2D.




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Modulation of natural HLA-B*27:05 ligandome by ankylosing spondylitis-associated endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 2 (ERAP2) [Research]

The human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-B*27:05 allele and the endoplasmic reticulum-resident aminopeptidases are strongly associated with ankylosing spondylitis (AS), a chronic inflammatory spondyloarthropathy. This study examined the effect of endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 2 (ERAP2) in the generation of the natural HLA-B*27:05 ligandome in live cells. Complexes of HLA-B*27:05-bound peptide pools were isolated from human ERAP2-edited cell clones and the peptides were identified using high throughput mass spectrometry analyses. The relative abundance of thousand ligands was established by quantitative tandem mass spectrometry and bioinformatics analysis. The residue frequencies at different peptide position, identified in presence or absence of ERAP2, determined structural features of ligands and their interactions with specific pockets of antigen binding site of HLA-B*27:05 molecule. Sequence alignment of ligands identified with species of bacteria associated with HLA-B*27-dependent reactive arthritis was performed. In the absence of ERAP2, peptides with N-terminal basic residues, and minority canonical P2 residues are enriched in the natural ligandome. Further, alterations of residue frequencies and hydrophobicity profile at P3, P7, and P positions were detected. In addition, several ERAP2-dependent cellular peptides were highly similar to protein sequences of arthritogenic bacteria, including one human HLA-B*27:05 ligand fully conserved in a protein from Campylobacter jejuni. These findings highlight the pathogenic role of this aminopeptidase in the triggering of AS autoimmune disease.




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Characterization of Prenylated C-terminal Peptides Using a Thiopropyl-based Capture Technique and LC-MS/MS [Research]

Post-translational modifications play a critical and diverse role in regulating cellular activities. Despite their fundamentally important role in cellular function, there has been no report to date of an effective generalized approach to the targeting, extraction and characterization of the critical c-terminal regions of natively prenylated proteins. Various chemical modification and metabolic labelling strategies in cell culture have been reported. However, their applicability is limited to cell culture systems and does not allow for analysis of tissue samples. The chemical characteristics (hydrophobicity, low abundance, highly basic charge) of many of the c-terminal regions of prenylated proteins have impaired the use of standard proteomic workflows. In this context, we sought a direct approach to the problem in order to examine these proteins in tissue without the use of labelling.  Here we demonstrate that prenylated proteins can be captured on chromatographic resins functionalized with mixed disulfide functions. Protease treatment of resin-bound proteins using chymotryptic digestion revealed peptides from many known prenylated proteins. Exposure of the protease-treated resin to reducing agents and hydro organic mixtures released c-terminal peptides with intact prenyl groups along with other enzymatic modifications expected in this protein family. Database and search parameters were selected to allow for c-terminal modifications unique to these molecules such as CAAX box processing and c-terminal methylation. In summary, we present a direct approach to enrich and obtain information at a molecular level of detail about prenylation of proteins from tissue and cell extracts using high performance LCMS without the need for metabolic labeling and derivatization.




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Dysregulation of Exosome Cargo by Mutant Tau Expressed in Human-Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell (iPSC) Neurons Revealed by Proteomics Analyses [Research]

Accumulation and propagation of hyperphosphorylated tau (p-tau) is a common neuropathological hallmark associated with neurodegeneration of Alzheimer's disease (AD), frontotemporal dementia and parkinsonism linked to chromosome 17 (FTDP-17), and related tauopathies. Extracellular vesicles, specifically exosomes, have recently been demonstrated to participate in mediating tau propagation in brain. Exosomes produced by human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived neurons expressing mutant Tau (mTau), containing the P301L and V337M Tau mutations of FTDP-17, possess the ability to propagate p-tau pathology after injection into mouse brain.  To gain an understanding of the mTau exosome cargo involved in tau pathogenesis, these pathogenic exosomes were analyzed by proteomics and bioinformatics. The data showed that mTau expression dysregulates the exosome proteome to result in (1) proteins uniquely present only in mTau, and not control exosomes, (2) the absence of proteins in mTau exosomes, uniquely present in control exosomes, and (3) shared proteins which were significantly up-regulated or down-regulated in mTau compared to control exosomes. Notably, mTau exosomes (not control exosomes) contain ANP32A (also known as I1PP2A), an endogenous inhibitor of the PP2A phosphatase which regulates the phosphorylation state of p-tau.  Several of the mTau exosome-specific proteins have been shown to participate in AD mechanisms involving lysosomes, inflammation, secretases, and related processes.  Furthermore, the mTau exosomes lacked a substantial portion of proteins present in control exosomes involved in pathways of localization, vesicle transport, and protein binding functions. The shared proteins present in both mTau and control exosomes represented exosome functions of vesicle-mediated transport, exocytosis, and secretion processes. These data illustrate mTau as a dynamic regulator of the biogenesis of exosomes to result in acquisition, deletion, and up- or down-regulation of protein cargo to result in pathogenic mTau exosomes capable of in vivo propagation of p-tau neuropathology in mouse brain. 




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Proteaphagy in mammalian cells can function independent of ATG5/ATG7 [Research]

The degradation of intra- and extracellular proteins is essential in all cell types and mediated by two systems, the ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS) and the autophagy-lysosome pathway. This study investigates the changes in autophagosomal and lysosomal proteomes upon inhibition of proteasomes by bortezomib (BTZ) or MG132. We find an increased abundance of more than 50 proteins in lysosomes of cells in which the proteasome is inhibited. Among those are dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR), ß-Catenin and 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzym-A (HMGCoA)-reductase. Since these proteins are known to be degraded by the proteasome they seem to be compensatorily delivered to the autophagosomal pathway when the proteasome is inactivated. Surprisingly, most of the proteins which show increased amounts in the lysosomes of BTZ or MG132 treated cells are proteasomal subunits. Thus an inactivated, non-functional proteasome is delivered to the autophagic pathway. Native gel electrophoresis shows that the proteasome reaches the lysosome intact and not disassembled. Adaptor proteins, which target proteasomes to autophagy, have been described in Arabidopsis, Saccharomyces and upon starvation in mammalians. However, in cell lines deficient of these proteins or their mammalian orthologues, respectively, the transfer of proteasomes to the lysosome is not impaired. Obviously, these proteins do not play a role as autophagy adaptor proteins in mammalian cells. We can also show that chaperone-mediated autophagy (CMA) does not participate in the proteasome delivery to the lysosomes. In autophagy-related (ATG)-5 and ATG7 deficient cells the delivery of inactivated proteasomes to the autophagic pathway was only partially blocked, indicating the existence of at least two different pathways by which inactivated proteasomes can be delivered to the lysosome in mammalian cells.




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Developments and Applications of Functional Protein Microarrays [Review]

Protein microarrays are crucial tools in the study of proteins in an unbiased, high-throughput manner, as they allow for characterization of up to thousands of individually purified proteins in parallel. The adaptability of this technology has enabled its use in a wide variety of applications, including the study of proteome-wide molecular interactions, analysis of post-translational modifications, identification of novel drug targets, and examination of pathogen-host interactions. In addition, the technology has also been shown to be useful in profiling antibody specificity, as well as in the discovery of novel biomarkers, especially for autoimmune diseases and cancers. In this review, we will summarize the developments that have been made in protein microarray technology in both in basic and translational research over the past decade. We will also introduce a novel membrane protein array, the GPCR-VirD array, and discuss the future directions of functional protein microarrays.




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Acquiring and Analyzing Data Independent Acquisition Proteomics Experiments without Spectrum Libraries [Perspective]

Data independent acquisition (DIA) is an attractive alternative to standard shotgun proteomics methods for quantitative experiments. However, most DIA methods require collecting exhaustive, sample-specific spectrum libraries with data dependent acquisition (DDA) to detect and quantify peptides. In addition to working with non-human samples, studies of splice junctions, sequence variants, or simply working with small sample yields can make developing DDA-based spectrum libraries impractical. Here we illustrate how to acquire, queue, and validate DIA data without spectrum libraries, and provide a workflow to efficiently generate DIA-only chromatogram libraries using gas-phase fractionation (GPF). We present best-practice methods for collecting DIA data using Orbitrap-based instruments, and develop an understanding for why DIA using an Orbitrap mass spectrometer should be approached differently than when using time-of-flight instruments. Finally, we discuss several methods for analyzing DIA data without libraries.




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Robust summarization and inference in proteome-wide label-free quantification [Research]

Label-Free Quantitative mass spectrometry based workflows for differential expression (DE) analysis of proteins impose important challenges on the data analysis due to peptide-specific effects and context dependent missingness of peptide intensities. Peptide-based workflows, like MSqRob, test for DE directly from peptide intensities and outperform summarization methods which first aggregate MS1 peptide intensities to protein intensities before DE analysis. However, these methods are computationally expensive, often hard to understand for the non-specialised end-user, and do not provide protein summaries, which are important for visualisation or downstream processing. In this work, we therefore evaluate state-of-the-art summarization strategies using a benchmark spike-in dataset and discuss why and when these fail compared to the state-of-the-art peptide based model, MSqRob. Based on this evaluation, we propose a novel summarization strategy, MSqRobSum, which estimates MSqRob’s model parameters in a two-stage procedure circumventing the drawbacks of peptide-based workflows. MSqRobSum maintains MSqRob’s superior performance, while providing useful protein expression summaries for plotting and downstream analysis. Summarising peptide to protein intensities considerably reduces the computational complexity, the memory footprint and the model complexity, and makes it easier to disseminate DE inferred on protein summaries. Moreover, MSqRobSum provides a highly modular analysis framework, which provides researchers with full flexibility to develop data analysis workflows tailored towards their specific applications.




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Flow-induced reorganization of laminin-integrin networks within the endothelial basement membrane uncovered by proteomics [Research]

The vessel wall is continuously exposed to hemodynamic forces generated by blood flow. Endothelial mechanosensors perceive and translate mechanical signals via cellular signaling pathways into biological processes that control endothelial development, phenotype and function. To assess the hemodynamic effects on the endothelium on a system-wide level, we applied a quantitative mass spectrometry approach combined with cell surface chemical footprinting. SILAC-labeled endothelial cells were subjected to flow-induced shear stress for 0, 24 or 48 hours, followed by chemical labeling of surface proteins using a non-membrane permeable biotin label, and analysis of the whole proteome and the cell surface proteome by LC-MS/MS analysis. These studies revealed that of the >5000 quantified proteins 104 were altered, which were highly enriched for extracellular matrix proteins and proteins involved in cell-matrix adhesion. Cell surface proteomics indicated that LAMA4 was proteolytically processed upon flow-exposure, which corresponded to the decreased LAMA4 mass observed on immunoblot. Immunofluorescence microscopy studies highlighted that the endothelial basement membrane was drastically remodeled upon flow exposure. We observed a network-like pattern of LAMA4 and LAMA5, which corresponded to the localization of laminin-adhesion molecules ITGA6 and ITGB4. Furthermore, the adaptation to flow-exposure did not affect the inflammatory response to tumor necrosis factor α, indicating that inflammation and flow trigger fundamentally distinct endothelial signaling pathways with limited reciprocity and synergy. Taken together, this study uncovers the blood flow-induced remodeling of the basement membrane and stresses the importance of the subendothelial basement membrane in vascular homeostasis.




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The DNA sensor cGAS is decorated by acetylation and phosphorylation modifications in the context of immune signaling [Research]

The cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS) protein is a pattern-recognition receptor of the mammalian innate immune system that is recognized as a main cytosolic sensor of pathogenic or damaged DNA. cGAS DNA binding initiates catalytic production of the second messenger, cyclic GMP-AMP, which activates the STING-TBK1-IRF3 signaling axis to induce cytokine expression. Post-translational modification (PTM) has started to be recognized as a critical component of cGAS regulation, yet the extent of these modifications remains unclear. Here, we report the identification and functional analysis of cGAS phosphorylations and acetylations in several cell types under basal and immune-stimulated conditions. cGAS was enriched by immunoaffinity purification from human primary fibroblasts prior to and after infection with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), as well as from immune-stimulated STING-HEK293T cells. Six phosphorylations and eight acetylations were detected, of which eight PTMs were not previously documented. PTMs were validated by parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) mass spectrometry in fibroblasts, HEK293T cells, and THP-1 macrophage-like cells. Primary sequence and structural analysis of cGAS highlighted a subset of PTM sites with elevated surface accessibility and high evolutionary sequence conservation. To assess the functional relevance of each PTM, we generated a series of single-point cGAS mutations. Stable cell lines were constructed to express cGAS with amino acid substitutions that prevented phosphorylation (Ser-to-Ala) and acetylation (Lys-to-Arg) or that mimicked the modification state (Ser-to-Asp and Lys-to-Gln). cGAS-dependent apoptotic and immune signaling activities were then assessed for each mutation. Our results show that acetyl-mimic mutations at Lys384 and Lys414 inhibit the ability of cGAS to induce apoptosis. In contrast, the Lys198 acetyl-mimic mutation increased cGAS-dependent interferon signaling when compared to the unmodified charge-mimic. Moreover, targeted PRM quantification showed that Lys198 acetylation is decreased upon infections with two herpesviruses—HSV-1 and human cytomegalovirus (HCMV), highlighting this residue as a regulatory point during virus infection.




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Proteomics of Campylobacter jejuni growth in deoxycholate reveals Cj0025c as a cystine transport protein required for wild-type human infection phenotypes [Research]

Campylobacter jejuni is a major cause of food-borne gastroenteritis. Proteomics by label-based two-dimensional liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) identified proteins associated with growth in 0.1% sodium deoxycholate (DOC, a component of gut bile salts), and system-wide validation was performed by data-independent acquisition (DIA-SWATH-MS). LC-MS/MS quantified 1326 proteins (~82% of the predicted C. jejuni proteome), of which 1104 were validated in additional biological replicates by DIA-SWATH-MS. DOC resulted in a profound proteome shift with 512 proteins showing significantly altered abundance. Induced proteins were associated with flagellar motility and antibiotic resistance; and these correlated with increased DOC motility and resistance to polymyxin B and ciprofloxacin. DOC also increased human Caco-2 cell adherence and invasion. Abundances of proteins involved in nutrient transport were altered by DOC and aligned with intracellular changes to their respective carbon sources. DOC increased intracellular levels of sulfur-containing amino acids (cysteine and methionine) and the dipeptide cystine (Cys-Cys), which also correlated with reduced resistance to oxidative stress. A DOC induced transport protein was Cj0025c, which has sequence similarity to bacterial Cys-Cys transporters. Deletion of cj0025c (cj0025c) resulted in proteome changes consistent with sulfur starvation, as well as attenuated invasion, reduced motility, atypical morphology, increased antimicrobial susceptibility and poor biofilm formation. Targeted metabolomics showed cj0025c was capable of utilizing known C. jejuni amino and organic acid substrates commensurate with wild-type. Medium Cys-Cys levels however, were maintained in cj0025c relative to wild-type. A toxic Cys-Cys mimic (selenocystine) inhibited wild-type growth, but not cj0025c. Provision of an alternate sulfur source (2 mM thiosulfate) restored cj0025c motility. Our data confirm that Cj0025c is a Cys-Cys transporter that we have named TcyP consistent with the nomenclature of homologous proteins in other species.




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Perlecan knockdown significantly alters extracellular matrix composition and organization during cartilage development [Research]

Perlecan is a critical proteoglycan found in the extracellular matrix (ECM) of cartilage. In healthy cartilage, perlecan regulates cartilage biomechanics and we previously demonstrated perlecan deficiency leads to reduced cellular and ECM stiffness in vivo. This change in mechanics may lead to the early onset osteoarthritis seen in disorders resulting from perlecan knockdown such as Schwartz-Jampel syndrome (SJS). To identify how perlecan knockdown affects the material properties of developing cartilage, we used imaging and liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to study the ECM in a murine model of SJS, Hspg2C1532Y-Neo. Perlecan knockdown led to defective pericellular matrix formation, whereas the abundance of bulk ECM proteins, including many collagens, increased. Post-translational modifications and ultrastructure of collagens were not significantly different; however, LC-MS/MS analysis showed more protein was secreted by Hspg2C1532Y-Neo cartilage in vitro, suggesting that the incorporation of newly synthesized ECM was impaired. In addition, glycosaminoglycan deposition was atypical, which may explain the previously observed decrease in mechanics. Overall, these findings provide insight into the influence of perlecan on functional cartilage assembly and the progression of osteoarthritis in SJS.




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Energy for Asia: Chasing Pipe Dreams

1 July 2008 , Number 9

Oil people call them pipe dreams: plans to transport energy across vast distances to places where it is needed most. That need is clear in Pakistan and India, but can the obstacles be overcome at this time of high prices, to turn the recurring dreams into reality?

Elizabeth Mills

Freelance analyst and consultant, Islamabad

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Indian women protesting against electricity price increases in Hyderabad




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Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century

20 April 2020

Nuclear deterrence theory, with its roots in the Cold War era, may not account for all eventualities in the 21st century. Researchers at Chatham House have worked with eight experts to produce this collection of essays examining four contested themes in contemporary policymaking on deterrence.

Dr Beyza Unal

Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme

Yasmin Afina

Research Assistant, International Security Programme

Dr Patricia Lewis

Research Director, Conflict, Science & Transformation; Director, International Security Programme

Dr John Borrie

Associate Fellow, International Security Programme

Dr Jamie Shea

Associate Fellow, International Security Programme

Peter Watkins

Associate Fellow, International Security Programme

Dr Maria Rost Rublee

Associate Professor of International Relations, Monash University

Cristina Varriale

Research Fellow in Proliferation and Nuclear Policy, RUSI

Dr Tanya Ogilvie-White

Adjunct Senior Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University

Dr Andrew Futter

Associate Professor of International Politics, University of Leicester

Christine Parthemore

Chief Executive Officer, Council on Strategic Risks (CSR)

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Royal Navy Vanguard Class submarine HMS Vigilant returning to HMNB Clyde after extended deployment. The four Vanguard-class submarines form the UK's strategic nuclear deterrent force. Photo: Ministry of Defence.

Summary

  • This collection of essays explores, from the perspectives of eight experts, four areas of deterrence theory and policymaking: the underlying assumptions that shape deterrence practice; the enduring value of extended deterrence; the impact of emerging technologies; and the ‘blurring’ of the lines between conventional and nuclear weapons.
  • Nuclear deterrence theory, with its roots in the Cold War era, may not account for all eventualities in security and defence in the 21st century, given the larger number of nuclear actors in a less binary geopolitical context. It is clear that a number of present factors challenge the overall credibility of ‘classical’ nuclear deterrence, meaning that in-depth analysis is now needed.
  • Uncertainty as to the appetite to maintain the current nuclear weapons policy architecture looms large in discussions and concerns on global and regional security. The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, doubts over the potential extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, heightened regional tensions in Northeast and South Asia, together with the current and likely future risks and challenges arising from global technological competition, making it all the more urgent to examine long-held assumptions in the real-world context.
  • Extended deterrence practices differ from region to region, depending on the domestic and regional landscape. Increased focus on diplomatic capabilities to reduce risks and improve the long-term outlook at regional level, including by spearheading new regional arms-control initiatives, may be a viable way forward. Addressing the bigger picture – notably including, on the Korean peninsula, Pyongyang’s own threat perception – and the links between conventional and nuclear missile issues will need to remain prominent if long-term and concrete changes are to take hold.
  • Most states have long held nuclear weapons to be ‘exceptional’: their use would represent a dramatic escalation of a conflict that must never be attained. Latterly, however, some officials and scholars have made the case that the impact of the use of a low-yield nuclear weapon would not be entirely distinct from that of a large-scale conventional attack. This blurring of lines between conventional and nuclear deterrence strips nuclear weapons of their exceptional nature, in a context in which states are faced with diverse, complex and concurrent threats from multiple potential adversaries that are able to synchronize non-military and military options, up to and including nuclear forces. The use of nuclear weapons risks becoming a ‘new normal’, potentially reducing the threshold for use – to cyberattacks, for example. This has direct implications for discussions around strategic stability. 
  • While emerging technologies may offer tremendous opportunities in the modernization of nuclear weapons, they also present major risks and destabilizing challenges. Artificial intelligence, automation, and other developments in the cyber sphere affect dynamics on both the demand and supply sides of the nuclear deterrence equation. States and alliance such as NATO must adapt their deterrence thinking in light of these technological developments, and define their primary purpose and priorities in this shifting security context. Resilience planning, adaptation to the evolving security environment, threat anticipation, and consistent crisis management and incident response – as well as thinking about the mitigation measures necessary to prevent conflict escalation should deterrence fail – will all be critical in upholding nuclear deterrence as both policy and practice.




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Economic Crisis and the Delayed Arrival of a New President: Transition Trauma

1 November 2008 , Number 1

The new American president will not be inaugurated until January 20. He will certainly face the most difficult economic conditions since Franklin Roosevelt entered the White House in March 1933. The politics of presidential transition – in this year, as seventy-six years ago – seem likely only to exacerbate the global crisis.

John Dumbrell

Professor of Government, Durham University




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Russia and the Economic Crisis: No Safe Haven

1 November 2008 , Number 4

Russia is caught in the global crisis and cannot escape its impact. The crucial question is how the Dmitri Medvedev-Vladimir Putin leadership will respond. Putin has presided over a steadily strengthening economy; he now appears ill-equipped to handle crisis and contraction. The signs are not encouraging. Trust and confidence, two essential ingredients vital to resolving any financial crisis, are in short supply. The public could pay a heavy price for the hubris and schadenfreude of their leaders, still ‘dizzy with success’ from years of economic revival and what they perceive as a successful reaffirmation of the country’s great power status.

Julian Cooper,

Professor, Centre for Russian and East European Studies, University of Birmingham




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Ghana: Following the Gentle Giant

1 November 2008 , Number 8

Ghana’s President John Kufuor has successfully promoted his country as a haven of political and economic stability, but as he comes to the end of his two terms in office, the cracks are beginning to appear. Can Ghana escape the election traumas that have been so destructive in Kenya and Zimbabwe?

Sola Tayo

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme




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United States Presidency and Europe: Over to You, Europe

1 November 2008 , Number 1

The race is on to ensure that relations between the United States and its European allies are set on the right track from the outset of Barack Obama’s presidency. Although they may not like it, the main responsibility for ensuring that the transatlantic relationship does not stumble into a series of disappointed expectations in its first critical year lies more in European capitals than in Washington.

Robin Niblett

Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House




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Nuclear Weapons: Trident is the Answer, Now What was the Question?

1 February 2007 , Number 3

Next month, parliament will vote on whether to replace Britain’s Trident nuclear missile submarines with a new and similar system. There is little doubt the proposal will be approved with support from the Conservative opposition. But the facts used to back the government’s favourite option raise as many questions as answers. The future of Britain’s defence is in doubt.

Andrew Norman

Senior Lecturer, Defence Studies, King's College London

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Trident Submarine USS Georgia




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Nigerian Elections: Big Men and Ballot Boxes

1 March 2007 , Number 6

The minister paused, leaned forward and fiddled with his cufflinks, ‘It wasn’t about whether the election was rigged or not,’ he said. ‘The truth is, everybody rigged it. We just rigged it better than them.’ Does the next Nigerian presidential election in April promise anything different?

Sola Tayo

Journalist, HARDtalk, BBC News

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Supporters of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party wave banners and posters




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Turkey: Emerging Identity

1 April 2007 , Number 10

Turkey is about to face both presidential and parliamentary elections. Many argue that the usual faultlines – the role of the military, secularism, Islam, nationalism and the Kurdish question – change incrementally at best. But mounting evidence is challenging this basic assumption.

Fadi Hakura

Consulting Fellow, Europe Programme

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Seagulls fly near Suleymaniye mosque in Istanbul Turkey




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Breaking the Cycle of Violence: Transitional Justice for the Victims of ISIS in Syria

28 April 2020

This paper aims to assist the region’s local authorities, and their key foreign backers, in understanding how transitional justice can provide alternative avenues for holding local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities.

Haid Haid

Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

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A fighter with the Syrian Democratic Forces monitors prisoners accused of being affiliated with ISIS, at a prison in the northeastern Syrian city of Hassakeh on 25 October 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • Following the territorial defeat of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in the region is now grappling with the task of quickly dealing with thousands of the group’s detained members while bringing justice to their victims. To that end, local authorities are focusing on the use of counterterrorism laws and courts to charge captured ISIS members and determine their guilt accordingly.
  • The piecemeal approach to justice is deeply flawed, and raises particular concerns about due process. No precise instruments exist to determine the personal responsibility of ISIS individuals for specific crimes, or for their role in war crimes committed by the group. In any event, the scale of the crimes and the number of victims – as well as severe shortages of resources and workers – make dispensation of justice extremely difficult through the traditional legal system.
  • Not all detained ISIS members receive prison sentences. Individuals who did not hold senior roles in the group’s apparatus and are not accused of ‘major’ crimes (in practice, largely defined as fighting for ISIS and murder) are being released under limited reconciliation deals with tribal leaders. But the involvement of local community leaders in those efforts is not enough to ensure positive results. Many victims are upset at seeing ISIS members walk free without even admitting their guilt publicly or apologizing for the pain they caused.
  • To overcome the limitations of the current, counterterrorism-focused framework, a ‘transitional justice’ approach could provide judicial and non-judicial instruments to establish accountability for ISIS crimes and reduce community resistance to the reintegration of group members. A combination of non-judicial mechanisms such as truth commissions, missing persons’ committees, and reparations and victim-healing programmes could play a vital role in providing ISIS victims with a sense of justice while contributing to peacebuilding and stability.
  • Ignoring the urgency of developing a long-term plan to serve justice and contribute to community healing will almost certainly allow ISIS to continue to prevent the recovery and development of northeastern Syria. This, in turn, risks undermining the stability of the country and the region at large.




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Iran and China: Energising Links

1 July 2007 , Number 2

Iran has energy that China needs and Beijing provides a counter balance to western pressures on Tehran. The benefits are clear, but so are the risks for a rising power in the labyrinthine politics of the Middle East.

Marc Lanteigne

Lecturer, School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews

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Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad meets with Chinese President Hu Jintao




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Renewable Energy: Generating Money

1 November 2007 , Number 7

City types are waking up to wind, waves and the sun and their potential to make energy – and money. This is just as new energy policies for Europe emerge with twenty percent targets for renewable energy and greenhouse gas cuts. Add to the mix climate change negotiations which will be back in Bali in December.

Kirsty Hamilton

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

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Solar panels lined up




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Politics, policy-making and the presence of images of suffering children

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helen Berents

In 2017 Trump expressed pity for the ‘beautiful babies’ killed in a gas attack on Khan Shaykhun in Syria before launching airstrikes against President Assad's regime. Images of suffering children in world politics are often used as a synecdoche for a broader conflict or disaster. Injured, suffering, or dead; the ways in which images of children circulate in global public discourse must be critically examined to uncover the assumptions that operate in these environments. This article explores reactions to images of children by representatives and leaders of states to trace the interconnected affective and political dimensions of these images. In contrast to attending to the expected empathetic responses prompted by images of children, this article particularly focuses on when such images prompt bellicose foreign policy decision-making. In doing this, the article forwards a way of thinking about images as contentious affective objects in international relations. The ways in which images of children's bodies and suffering are strategically deployed by politicians deserves closer scrutiny to uncover the visual politics of childhood inherent in these moments of international politics and policy-making.




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Social media and the visibility of horrific violence

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Constance Duncombe

Images are central to social media communication. Billions of images are shared across different social media platforms every day: photos, cartoons, GIFs and short video clips are exchanged by users, facilitating or framing discourse on participatory sites such as Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Many of these images depict events of extreme violence, which circulate uninhibited by the conventional constraints associated with traditional news media censorship. A question arises here as to how such images mobilize public and policy-making responses to atrocities. This article examines the political dynamics of violent social media images. I argue that the particular qualities of social media can play an important role in how the digital visibility of horrific violence influences policy-making as a response to such atrocities. There is an important connection between the properties of social media platforms that allow user images to reach a global audience in real time and the emotional responses that this level of circulation generates. In turn, the pressure created by events made globally visible through the circulation of violent images and the audience responses to those images puts governments in a position where they are forced to act, which has significant implications for policy-making.




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How images frame China's role in African development

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

George Karavas

Political leaders, policy-makers and academics routinely refer to development as an objective process of social change through the use of technical, value-free terms. Images of poverty and inequality are regularly presented as evidence of a world that exists ‘out there’ where development unfolds. This way of seeing reflects the value of scientific forms of knowledge but also sits in tension with the normative foundations of development that take European modernization and industrialization as the benchmark for comparison. The role images play in this process is often overlooked. This article argues that a dominant mode of visuality based on a Cartesian separation between subject and object, underpinning the ascendance of European hegemony and colonialism, aligns with the core premises of orthodox development discourse. An example of how visual representations of development matter is presented through images of Africa–China relations in western media sources. Using widely circulated images depicting China's impact on African development in western news media sources as an example of why visual politics matters for policy-making, the article examines how images play a role in legitimizing development planning by rendering associated forms of epistemological and structural violence ‘invisible to the viewer’.




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Accountability, denial and the future-proofing of British torture

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Ruth Blakeley and Sam Raphael

When powerful liberal democratic states are found to be complicit in extreme violations of human rights, how do they respond and why do they respond as they do? Drawing on the example of the United Kingdom's complicity in torture since 9/11, this article demonstrates how reluctant the UK has been to permit a full reckoning with its torturous past. We demonstrate that successive UK governments engaged in various forms of denial, obfuscation and attempts to obstruct investigation and avoid accountability. The net effect of their responses has been to deny the victims redress, through adequate judicial processes, and to deny the public adequate state accountability. These responses are not simply aimed at shielding from prosecution the perpetrators and those who have oversight of them, nor preventing political embarrassment. The various forms of denial and obstruction are also designed to ensure that collusion can continue uninterrupted. A core concern of intelligence officials and ministers has been to prevent any process that would lead to a comprehensive prohibition on involvement in operations where torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment are a real possibility. The door remains wide open, and deliberately so, for British involvement in torture.




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Rethinking youth bulge theory in policy and scholarship: incorporating critical gender analysis

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Lesley Pruitt

For decades ‘youth bulge’ theory has dominated understandings of youth in mainstream International Relations. Youth bulge theory has also become part of some public media analyses, mainstream political rhetoric, and even officially enshrined in the foreign policy of some states. Through the ‘youth bulge’ lens, youth—especially males—have been presented as current or future perpetrators of violence. However, this article argues that the youth bulge thesis postulated in mainstream IR is based on flawed theoretical assumptions. In particular, supporters of youth bulge theory fail to engage with existing research by feminist IR scholars and thus take on a biological essentialist approach. This has led to theoretical and practical misunderstandings of the roles youth play in relation to conflict, peace and security. These partial and biased understandings have also resulted in less effective policy-making. In critically reflecting on the ‘youth bulge’ thesis, this article argues that applying gender analysis is crucial to understanding the involvement of young people in general—and young men in particular—in conflict. Doing so will contribute to advancing more accurate analysis in scholarship and policy-making.




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The multilevel identity politics of the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Galia Press-Barnathan and Naama Lutz

This article uses the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) that took place in Tel Aviv to explore how cultural mega-events serve both as political arenas and as tools for identity construction, negotiation and contestation. These processes of identity politics are all conducted across national–subnational–international–transnational levels. The hosting of mega-events fleshes out these multiple processes in a very strong manner. We first discuss the politics of hosting mega-events in general. We then examine the identity politics associated more specifically with the Eurovision Song Contest, before examining in depth the complex forms of identity politics emerging around the competition following the 2018 Israeli victory. We suggest that it is important to study together the multiple processes—domestic, international and transnational—of identity politics that take place around the competition, as they interact with each other. Consequently, we follow the various stakeholders involved at these different levels and their interactions. We examine the internal identity negotiation process in Israel surrounding the event, the critical actors debating how to use the stage to challenge the liberal, western, ‘normal’ identity Israel hoped to project in the contest and how other stakeholders (participating states, national broadcasting agencies, participating artists) reacted to them, and finally we examine the behaviour of the institution in charge, the European Broadcasting Union, and national governments. We contribute to the study of mega-events as fields of contestation, to the understanding of the complex, multilevel nature of national identity construction, negotiation and contestation in the current era, and more broadly to the role that popular culture plays in this context.




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Violence, visuality and world politics

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

In the May 2020 issue of International Affairs, we explore the many uses of images in the conduct of global politics.

Helen Berents and Constance Duncombe

This special section brings together diverse spaces and modes of visuality through specific, sustained attention to the various types of violence depicted. In doing so, these articles draw out a concern for the visual constitution of violence in global politics, and its emotional and political consequences. Individually and collectively, the contributions highlight the ways in which policy-makers and researchers are daily confronted by violent images that influence how complex political problems are seen and consequently understood. Paying attention to the power of the visuality of violence is necessary to understand how certain kinds of policy responses to direct and indirect violence unfold.




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Zelenskyy Finds That There Are No Easy Solutions in Donbas

23 October 2019

Duncan Allan

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Leo Litra

Senior Research Fellow, New Europe Center
The president has attempted to use the so-called Steinmeier Formula to find a compromise on holding elections in the east of Ukraine. But he has run into a stark reality: Moscow and Kyiv’s interests remain irreconcilable.

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A banner reading 'No capitulation!' is unfurled above the entrance to the city hall in Kyiv as part of protests against implementation of the so-called Steinmeier Formula. Photo: Getty Images.

In 2016, the then-German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, suggested a way around the impasse in east Ukraine.

He proposed that elections in the areas held by Russian-backed insurgents – the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (DNR) and the ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ (LNR) –   could be held under Ukrainian legislation, with Kyiv adopting a temporary law on ‘special status’, the main disagreement between Russia and Ukraine in the Minsk Agreements. This law would become permanent once the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) had declared that elections correspond with OSCE standards.

The reaction in Ukraine was strongly negative. The so-called Steinmeier Formula contradicted Kyiv’s position that elections in the occupied Donbas should only go ahead in a secure environment – requiring the prior withdrawal of Russian forces and the return of the eastern border to Ukraine’s control. It also did not address the differing views of ‘special status’; Russia demands a much greater devolution of constitutional powers to the DNR and LNR regimes than Ukraine will grant.

But on 1 October, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the new Ukrainian president, announced that he was signing up to the Steinmeier Formula. He also announced a conditional withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from two frontline areas in the east.

Quick reversal

During the 2019 presidential election campaign, Zelenskyy repeatedly promised that, if elected, he would re-energize efforts to end the war. This appealed to many Ukrainians, who understandably want the conflict over, although Zelenskyy’s eventual electoral victory was largely won on domestic issues.

But his initiative quickly ran into two problems.

First, following a major prisoner swap in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to judge that Zelenskyy was in a hurry to deliver his election promises and was acting without consulting France and Germany. Russia had earlier demanded that Ukraine formally agree to elections in the Donbas as the precondition for a summit of the ‘Normandy’ powers (the diplomatic format comprising leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, which has not met since 2016).

Moreover, the US, which is not part of the ‘Normandy’ group, has seemed disengaged because of domestic controversies. Concluding that Zelenskyy was vulnerable, the Kremlin welcomed his announcement about the Steinmeier Formula but declined to assent to a summit, hoping to extract further concessions.

Second, Zelenskyy’s action triggered protests in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Critics feared that he intended to make unilateral concessions over ‘special status’. Though he tried to assure Ukrainians that ‘there won't be any elections there if the [Russian] troops are still there’, concerns were fuelled by what many saw as his lack of openness about what the Steinmeier Formula really meant. Ukrainian public opinion wants an end to the war, but apparently not at any price.

Zelenskyy duly rowed back. During a marathon 14-hour press conference on 10 October, he emphasized that he would not surrender Ukraine’s vital interests. He also acknowledged that he had been insufficiently open with the Ukrainian public. For the time being at least, he seems to have been given pause.

A situation resistant to compromise

Instead, Zelenskyy may now attempt to ‘freeze’ the conflict by ending active operations. This is not Ukraine’s favoured outcome but could be the most realistic one in current conditions.  

Russia still calculates that time is on its side. It believes that Western support for Ukraine is lukewarm and that Kyiv will eventually have to give it what it wants. Russia clearly felt no pressure to respond positively to Zelenskyy’s overture, which it probably read as a weakness to be exploited.    

For these reasons, Zelenskyy now appears less optimistic that rapid progress to end the war is possible. A new summit of the ‘Normandy’ powers may happen but looks unlikely in the near future. This may act as an incentive for further bilateral negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, such as those which delivered the prisoner swap. However, a diplomatic process managed by Zelenskyy and Putin alone risks reducing Ukraine’s leverage. 

Finally, the main obstacles to implementation of the Minsk Agreements – radically different views of elections in, and ‘special status’ for, the DNR and LNR – remain. The Kremlin’s versions of both would gravely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty; Kyiv’s would facilitate the re-establishment of its control over the east. It is hard to see how this gap can be bridged.

Tellingly, the Steinmeier Formula offers no answer to this conundrum. Some conflicts, it seems, are resistant to diplomatic compromises that aim to satisfy everyone equally.




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Ryhor Astapenia

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Biography

Ryhor’s research examines the roles of the Belarusian political elites in the decision-making process within the country, and their interaction with the European Union institutions.

Ryhor is founder of the Centre for New Ideas, a Minsk-based nonpartisan CSO promoting democratic reforms in Belarus. He received his PhD in Political Science at the University of Warsaw and previously worked as a development director and analyst at the Ostrogorski Centre, a Belarusian think tank.

Ryhor has cooperated with a number of civil society organisations in Eastern Europe and has written for Belarusian and Western media outlets and think tanks, including the Washington Post, the Guardian, the European Council on Foreign Relations, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

Areas of expertise

  • Belarusian domestic politics
  • Belarusian foreign policy
  • Belarusian political economy
  • Transformations in post-Soviet space

Past experience

2012 - presentFounder, Centre for New Ideas
2013-18PhD in Political Science, Warsaw University
2012-17Analyst and development director, Ostrogorski Centre




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Ever Closer Alliance? New Developments in Russia-China Relations

Invitation Only Research Event

11 December 2019 - 9:00am to 1:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Yang Cheng, Professor of International Relations, Assistant Dean, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University
Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Marcin Kaczmarski, Lecturer in Security Studies, University of Glasgow
Natasha Kuhrt, Lecturer, Department of War Studies, King’s College London
Bobo Lo, Non-Resident Fellow, Lowy Institute
Alexey Maslov, Professor, School of Asian Studies, National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow

At face value, recent years have seen a deepening in Sino-Russian cooperation, from energy agreements, to the recent Huawei-MTS deal developing a 5G network in Russia. Ever larger-in-scale joint military exercises add to fears by some that the 'axis of convenience' is now a more genuine – and threatening – partnership.

This workshop will offer a sober assessment of the latest developments in Sino-Russian relations, shedding light on the underpinnings and practical realities of the relationship as well as on the long-term challenges of upholding cooperation.

The panel will discuss the different and potentially diverging interpretations of contemporary Sino-Russian relations as well as the implications for the rules-based international order.

This event is co-organized by the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme and the University of Exeter and is supported by the British International Studies Association.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Political Will Was Not Enough for Justice Reform in Moldova

27 November 2019

Cristina Gherasimov

Former Academy Associate, Russia and Eurasia Programme
The pro-reform Sandu government had the will to dismantle oligarchic power structures, but was taken down by limited political experience.

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Maia Sandu in Germany in July. Photo: Getty Images.

The lack of political will to carry out rule of law reforms is frequently the reason why reforms are not fully implemented. The case of Moldova proves that in societies where strong vested interests still persist, political savviness is equally as important as political will.

Old and new political power brokers in Moldova struck a fragile pact in June to oust Vladimir Plahotniuc. Plahotniuc had built a network of corruption and patronage with the help of the Democratic Party, which he treated as a personal vehicle and which allowed him and a small economic elite circle to enrich themselves off of government institutions and state-owned enterprises, to the detriment of Moldovan citizens and the health of their political process.

Maia Sandu, co-leader of the pro-reform ACUM electoral bloc, then formed a technocratic government with a remit to implement Moldova’s lagging reform agenda. Though made up of ministers with the integrity and political will to implement difficult transformational reforms, its biggest weakness was its coalition partner – the pro-Russian Socialists’ Party and its informal leader, Igor Dodon, the president of Moldova.

Now the Socialists – threatened by how key reforms to the justice system would impact their interests – have joined forces with Plahotniuc’s former allies, the Democratic Party, to oust ACUM, exploiting the party’s lack of political savviness. 

Reform interrupted

It was always clear the coalition would be short-lived. President Dodon and the co-ruling Socialists joined to buy themselves time, with the hope that they could restrict the most far-reaching reforms and tie the hands of ACUM ministers. In less than five months, however, the Sandu government initiated key reforms in the judicial system, aimed at dismantling Plahotniuc’s networks of patronage but also impacting the Socialists, who to a large degree also profited from the previous status quo.

The red line came over a last-minute change in the selection process of the prosecutor general proposed by Sandu on 6 November, which the Socialists claimed was unconstitutional and gave them the justification to put forward a motion of no confidence in the Sandu government. This was conveniently supported by the Democratic Party, who appeared threatened by an independent prosecutor’s office and saw an opportunity to return to power.

Thus, the political will to reform proved insufficient in the absence of a clear strategy on how to address the concerns of the old regime that they would be prosecuted and their vested interests threatened. Here, ACUM’s lack of political experience let them down. With their hands tied from the beginning in a fragile coalition with the Socialists, ACUM were unable to prevent sabotage from within state institutions and their own coalition, and could not find consensus to proceed with more radical methods to tackle corruption.

Less than two days after the Sandu government was out, a new government was sworn in on 14 November. Prime Minister Ion Chicu was an adviser to President Dodon before taking office and former minister of finance under the Plahotniuc-backed government of Pavel Filip, as part of a cabinet of ministers consisting largely of other presidential advisers and former high-level bureaucrats and ministers from the Plahotniuc era. 

The new government

A top priority for the Chicu government is to convince the international community that it is independent from President Dodon, and that its ‘technocrats’ will keep the course of reforms of the Sandu government. This is critical to preserving the financial assistance of Western partners, which the Moldovan government heavily relies on, particularly with a presidential election campaign next year, when they will likely want to create fiscal space for various giveaways to voters.

But within its first week in office, Chicu appears incapable of walking this line. Reverting to the initially proposed pre-selection process of prosecutor general signals that the post could be filled by a loyal appointee of President Dodon. Moreover, Chicu’s first visit abroad was to Russia, allegedly a major financial contributor of the Socialists’ Party. With the Socialists now holding the presidency, government, Chisinau mayoralty, and the parliament speaker’s seat, the danger of an increased Russian influence on key political decisions is very real.

A government steered by President Dodon risks bringing Moldova back to where it was before June, with a political elite mimicking reforms while misusing power for private gains. The biggest danger is that instead of continuing the reform process to bring Moldova back on its European integration path, the new government may focus on strengthening the old patronage system, this time with President Dodon at the top of the pyramid.

Lessons

This new minority government, supported by the Democrats, is a more natural one for President Dodon and therefore has more chances to survive, at least until presidential elections in autumn of 2020. Both the Socialists and the Democrats will likely seek to use this time to rebuild their own methods of capturing state resources. But with the Socialists relying on the Democrats’ votes in parliament, this is a recipe for further political instability.

Similar to Moldova, several other states across the post-Soviet space such as Ukraine and Armenia have had new political forces come to power with the political will and mandate to carry out difficult reforms to strengthen rule of law and fight systemic corruption in their countries. What they all have in common is the lack of political experience of how to create change, while old elites, used to thinking on their feet to defend their vested interests, retain their connections and economic and political influence.

Moldova is a good example of why political will needs to be backed up by clear strategy on how to deal with threatened vested interests in order for new political forces to be able to maintain themselves in power and reforms to be sustainable. When the chance comes again for fresh leaders to come to power, it is importantthey are politically prepared to use it swiftly and wisely.




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Three Takeaways From the Belarusian Parliamentary Elections

28 November 2019

Ryhor Astapenia

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Lukashenka’s domestic support is waning and he is not willing to make concessions to the West. Instead, he is trying to appease the ruling cadre.

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Alexander Lukashenka leaves a voting booth on 17 November. Photo: Getty Images.

Belarus’s parliamentary elections, held on 17 November, were predictably non-transparent, with numerous violations. The regime of Alexander Lukasheka allowed no opposition candidates as members of parliament – in contrast to the previous parliament, in which there were two opposition MPs. While this might seem to be a return to ‘business as usual’, three key takeaways from the elections highlight a shifting political and social landscape.

1. Lukashenka is appeasing his ruling cadre by promising to increase their role in the political system.

With several influential officials becoming new MPs, it is more likely that parliament will be more involved in any forthcoming discussion of a new constitution. Lukashenka has been promising constitutional reform for several years; he has said publicly that it will lead to an increased significance of government agencies as well as parliament. The aim of this is to keep them more engaged and on Lukashenka’s side.

In terms of the composition of the new parliament itself, there are some key differences with previous years. It is no longer a comfortable place for officials to while away their pre-retirement: many MPs are now in their fifties or younger, and have plans for careers beyond parliament.

It also looks as if small steps are being taken towards the emergence of a party system in Belarus. The leader of Belaya Rus, a pro-government association of Belarusian officials, got a seat in parliament for the first time, increasing the likelihood of it becoming a political party. The number of MPs from different parties has increased to 21 (out of 110 in total). Although these still all broadly support Lukashenka, they can differ from the president in policy positions. For example, the Labour and Justice Party, with 6 seats in parliament, supported the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Change, of course, may not necessarily be in a pro-Western direction.

Moreover, the newly elected members of parliament look more like real politicians. They go to debates, speak to independent journalists and have their own social media channels. Some have even felt able to criticize the actions of the authorities.

Similar changes have been taking place in other institutions in Belarus. The government is now more competent than it has ever been. The National Bank has managed to carry out macroeconomic stabilization on one of the most unstable currencies in Europe, while the ministries responsible for the economic development have implemented certain small-scale reforms. The Minister of the Interior has even acknowledged mistakes made by his department (under his predecessor), and undertaken to make improvements.

This has resulted in a near-comical situation, whereby the Belarusian non-state media outlets have an increasingly positive view of some state officials, such as Prime Minister Siarhei Rumas, while the state media has been scaling back its coverage of him to ensure he does not become too popular.

2. Belarus has less need for the West and is reluctant to make even small concessions.

Since the slight warming of Belarusian relations with the West in 2014, Lukashenka has been having more meetings with prominent Western officials. Western institutions began trying to cooperate more closely with Belarus, but soon saw that it was not very interested. In 2018, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development allocated €360 million to Belarus. However, it is now considering a reduction, as reforms in Belarus have not, in its view, gone far enough. The European Union has also committed considerable time and money to regional authorities, but this has not brought any significant changes to Belarusian local government.

The absence of opposition candidates also demonstrates that the Belarusian authorities are prepared for a new deterioration of relations with the West. The authorities could certainly have afforded some opposition in parliament, especially since they themselves choose whom to appoint. Given that they did not, they either do not consider worsened relations a problem or are confident that the West will continue to cooperate with Belarus in order to limit Russian power, regardless of its violations of the rule of law.

3. There is growing popular dissatisfaction with the current regime, but the state has no good plan for how to deal with it.

Parliamentary election campaigns in Belarus are traditionally low-key, but this year they were particularly muted. The authorities tried to ensure that people knew as little about the election as possible. Campaign posters appeared on the streets just two weeks before polling day. It seems the authorities were reluctant to politicize society, as further resentment at autocratic rule is brewing.

Many Belarusians who previously supported Lukashenka now have a very critical opinion of him. Take political blogging: the most popular political blogger in Belarus is a 22-year-old man who goes by the name of NEXTA. He produces low-quality videos which are highly critical of the authorities. A film by him about Lukashenka, released a month ago, has already received 1.8 million views, even though there are only 9.5 million people in Belarus.

The authorities are not in a concessionary mood. The presidential elections in 2020 will also likely be a sham. If the authorities’ grip over the country is weakened, they will fear an outbreak of anger, resulting in widespread protests which the regime might once again have to meet with violence.




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Kazakhstan: Reaching Out to Central Asian Neighbours

4 December 2019

Annette Bohr

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Despite its regional outreach, Kazakhstan’s diplomatic priority will remain Russia, China, and Europe.

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Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakh Majilis Chairman Nurlan Nigmatulin and ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev at an inauguration ceremony in parliament. Photo: Pavel AleksandrovTASS via Getty Images.

Leaders of the resource-rich Central Asian region have the propensity to remain in power until mortality dictates otherwise. Much like the UK and Brexit, however, few wanted to see Central Asia’s longest reigning ruler, Kazakhstan’s septuagenarian president Nursultan Nazarbayev, crash out without a deal.

The sudden departure of the country’s official leader of the nation with no clear succession plan could have led to investment chaos, intra-elite fighting and the unravelling in a matter of months of a system he had built over decades, à la Uzbekistan following the death of long-serving autocrat Islam Karimov in 2016.

In order to avoid just such a ‘no-deal’ scenario and ensure the continuity of his policies, in March Nazarbayev carefully choreographed his own resignation and the election of a hand-picked successor, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, while retaining plum positions and powers for himself.

Tokayev’s assumption of the presidency was accompanied by protesters in the streets, increasing wealth inequality, rising Sinophobia among rank-and-file Kazakhstanis, a hard-to-kick economic dependence on oil revenues and a lack of clarity as to which leader—the old or the new president—would actually be calling the shots. But, amidst this plethora of concerns, as argued in a recent Chatham House report, Kazakhstan: Tested by Transition, one bright spot has been the tangible growth of intra-Central Asian cooperation, with the Nazarbayev-Tokayev ruling duo appearing eager to improve the regional dialogue.

Kazakhstan has long shaped its identity as a Eurasian state that has acted as more of an intermediary between Russia and Central Asia than as an integral part of the Central Asian region. But since 2017, in particular, Kazakhstan has been increasingly looking for opportunities to boost hitherto weak cooperation with its Central Asian neighbours. While this is first and foremost owing to the liberalization of Uzbekistan’s large market, there are other factors at work that get less airplay.

One such factor is a perceptible disentangling from the Kremlin’s policy directions as Kazakhstan has come to view Russia’s foreign policy as increasingly neo-colonial. The example of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union is in many respects more off-putting than inspiring, and Nur-Sultan does not want to be locked tightly into the union’s economic orbit. And in distancing itself slightly from Moscow in order to limit Russian leverage in its affairs, Nur-Sultan has shown itself to be more open to Central Asian regional initiatives.

As part of the leadership’s plan to offset oil dependence, Kazakhstan aspires to become the transport, telecommunications and investment hub for Eurasian integration. The intense focus on connectivity and the development of logistical arteries and infrastructure could have the knock-on effect of boosting trade within the Central Asian region and reducing transit times, which are currently greater than in most other parts of the globe.

In addition, demographic trends and educational shifts that favour ethnic Kazakhs, together with a growing ethno-nationalist narrative, have allowed the state’s leadership to identify more closely with Kazakhstan’s common Central Asian heritage and, by extension, a common Central Asian region—although Kazakhstan’s leadership still remains eager to demonstrate that the country is not just another ‘stan’. The coming to power of President Mirziyoyev in Uzbekistan appears to have made Kazakhstan more aware of the interconnectedness of the two countries in terms of geographical location and potential economic complementarities, as well as culture and history.

Not least, there is a growing recognition among the Central Asian states themselves—including isolationist Turkmenistan to a degree—that deepening regional trade is mutually beneficial, especially given the constraints associated with Russia’s economic problems. The strengthening of Kazakhstan’s ties with Uzbekistan has slowly kick-started regional cooperation as a whole: trade turnover between the Central Asian states in 2018 grew by 35 per cent on the previous year.

But both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are keen to stress that there is no discussion of integration or institutionalization, not least because previous attempts at integration have been overtaken by Russia, leaving Central Asia without its own coordinating body.

The official consensus in Kazakhstan is that Uzbekistan’s economic reforms after years of isolation will spur ‘a healthy rivalry’ and ultimately boost Kazakhstan’s own economy, in so far as the competition for foreign investment will require both countries to work harder to improve their respective business and regulatory environments.

At the unofficial level, however, some Kazakhstani analysts view Uzbekistan’s rise as potentially unprofitable, given the possible diversion of some investments and market activity from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan. Moreover, Uzbekistan has the advantage of having undergone a clear change of executive, while it remains unclear which developments await Kazakhstan once First President Nazarbayev leaves the scene for good.

It can certainly be argued that Uzbekistan does pose a potential threat in the long-term to Kazakhstan’s entrenched position as Central Asia’s economic powerhouse: Uzbekistan’s population is one-and-a-half times bigger, even if its nominal GDP is three times smaller. Uzbekistan has a bigger market and a well-developed industrial sector, and is already the regional leader in terms of security. But it is not as though the world’s interest is moving from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan; rather, Uzbekistan is in the process of trying to catch up.

Despite this relatively upbeat picture, Kazakhstan’s combined trade with the other Central Asian states accounts for less than 5 per cent of its total volume of foreign trade—a figure that cannot begin to equal its trade with Russia, China, and Europe. As a result, Kazakhstan will continue to give greater importance to positioning itself as a global player than as a regional leader.

This article was originally published in The Diplomat.




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Can Uzbekistan’s President Meet Raised Expectations?

11 December 2019

Kate Mallinson

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Shavkat Mirziyoyev has implemented a number of important reforms, but is now entering a more hazardous period.

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Shavkat Mirziyoyev in June. Photo: Getty Images.

In the three years since Shavkat Mirziyoyev was elected president of Uzbekistan, he has embarked on a wide-ranging reform process including currency liberalization, eliminating forced labour and abolishing exit visas. This has encouraged foreign investors and the population, but a rare protest last week over natural gas and electricity shortages shows that the Uzbek population’s faith in change under the new leadership could be wearing thin, while foreign direct investment that adds real value to the economy is in short supply.

When Mirziyoyev came to power, Uzbekistan was on the verge of bankruptcy. A former prime minister of 13 years, and a pragmatic economist, the new president set on a rapid course to open Uzbekistan up to its neighbours and remove barriers to trade and foreign investment. The alacrity and ambition of the reform process and the monetary and economic liberalization has at times been overwhelming for lawyers and businesses. 

However, allowing the free movement of capital, people and goods are natural moves to boost an economy after 20 years of stasis. The country is now immersed in the more challenging and substantive phase of development, including privatization, the breakup of monopolies and capital markets reform. 

Despite a marked increase in foreign direct investment, the country is not receiving the investment it needs. Much of it comes from Russia or China through bilateral arrangements, with debt from China washing through state-owned banks and state-owned enterprises. Uzbekistan’s debt to China has increased three times since the end of 2016.

Meanwhile, European and US companies still appear unsure about the business environment and the staying power of reforms. A lack of consistent policy, alongside hastily drafted decrees and legislation that often require presidential decrees to clarify their meaning as well, as opaque carve outs, are further deterring Western investors. A workforce that is still in transition from a Soviet to a free market approach exacerbates the situation.

Opposition within the government to implementation of some of the reforms, as well as competing government interests, have led to backtracking on some reforms (such as free and unrestricted currency convertibility) and creeping protectionism in some sectors. Some reforms simply get lost in the long chain from presidential decree to implementation. After 2018, import tariffs were abolished but recently, a list of protected domestically produced products has been drawn up raising concerns that vested interests are replacing state monopolies with private ones.

Despite progress on the economic front, political and social reform has lagged. Uzbekistan is still largely run by senior cadres from the previous administration of Islam Karimov. While the government has attracted younger reformers, often returning from abroad, it has also been rehabilitating key figures from the Karimov years that were implicated in corruption scandals. Progressive senior officials, such as the former general prosecutor Otabek Murodov, have been removed with little explanation as to why; trials take place behind closed doors.

The new leadership has transformed the media environment, but the country still lacks objective analytical reporting. Direct criticism of the president or the ruling family remains taboo. Economic and monetary liberalization has come at a cost to the population in the form of double-digit inflation, while utility prices are moving to the level of the free market. Popular discontent is growing at the grass roots level and some hark back to the stability of the former government, in spite of its reputation for appalling human rights treatment.

Small and innovative steps have been taken to improve the rule of law, but more can be done, including introducing transparency over judicial processes and ensuring regional authorities have less impunity before the law. An initiative to address the issue of conflict of interest – whereby mayors, senators and other senior civil servants have been able to benefit commercially from their positions during an era of government economic stimulus – would signal a commitment to fundamental reform.

With great promises of political and economic reform, the government has set a high bar for itself. A continuing paternalistic form of governance, with its restricted civil society freedoms, human rights, stifling bureaucracy and corruption, against continuing lack of opportunities, will clash with the expectations of a growing young population.

Mirziyoyev is trying to make the parliamentary elections on 22 December, the first during his presidency, more dynamic. Yet no opposition parties have been able to emerge to serve as a check on the executive branch. A product of the system he ostensibly wishes to reform, Mirziyoyev will need to prioritize the strengthening of independent institutions to deliver results to his expectant people.




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The New Orthodox Church of Ukraine: Opportunities and Challenges of Canonical Independence

Invitation Only Research Event

22 January 2020 - 10:00am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Archbishop Yevstraty (Zoria) of Chernihiv, Deputy Head of Department for External Church Relations, Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Orthodox Church of Ukraine)

In January 2019, the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople granted the Orthodox Church of Ukraine a self-governing status, ending its centuries-long subordination to the Moscow Patriarchate. The Russian Orthodox Church condemned this decision and severed its links with the Constantinople Patriarchate.

More than 500 parishes have left the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to join the newly independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).

What challenges is the new church facing? Has its independence been recognized by other Orthodox churches? How is it affected by the schism between Constantinople and Moscow? What are UOC’s priorities in relations with the West and with the Orthodox world?

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Secrets and Spies: UK Intelligence Accountability After Iraq and Snowden

20 January 2020

How can democratic governments hold intelligence and security agencies to account when what they do is largely secret? Jamie Gaskarth explores how intelligence professionals view accountability in the context of 21st century politics. 

Jamie Gaskarth

Senior Lecturer, University of Birmingham

Using the UK as a case study, this book provides the first systematic exploration of how accountability is understood inside the secret world. It is based on new interviews with current and former UK intelligence practitioners, as well as extensive research into the performance and scrutiny of the UK intelligence machinery.

The result is the first detailed analysis of how intelligence professionals view their role, what they feel keeps them honest, and how far external overseers impact on their work.

The UK gathers material that helps inform global decisions on such issues as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, transnational crime, and breaches of international humanitarian law. On the flip side, the UK was a major contributor to the intelligence failures leading to the Iraq war in 2003, and its agencies were complicit in the widely discredited U.S. practices of torture and 'rendition' of terrorism suspects. UK agencies have come under greater scrutiny since those actions, but it is clear that problems remain.

Secrets and Spies is the result of a British Academy funded project (SG151249) on intelligence accountability.

Open society is increasingly defended by secret means. For this reason, oversight has never been more important. This book offers a new exploration of the widening world of accountability for UK intelligence, encompassing informal as well as informal mechanisms. It substantiates its claims well, drawing on an impressive range of interviews with senior figures. This excellent book offers both new information and fresh interpretations. It will have a major impact.

Richard Aldrich, Professor of International Security, University of Warwick, UK

Gaskarth’s novel approach, interpreting interviews with senior figures from the intelligence world, brings fresh insight on a significant yet contested topic. He offers an impressively holistic account of intelligence accountability—both formal and informal—and, most interestingly of all, of how those involved understand it. This is essential reading for those wanting to know what accountability means and how it is enacted.

Rory Cormac, Professor of International Relations, University of Nottingham

About the author

Jamie Gaskarth is senior lecturer at the University of Birmingham, where he teaches strategy and decision-making. His research looks at the ethical dilemmas of leadership and accountability in intelligence, foreign policy, and defence. He is author/editor or co-editor of six books and served on the Academic Advisory panel for the 2015 UK National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review.

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