The economic activity of the U.S. has plummeted in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and unemployment has soared—largely the result of social distancing policies designed to slow the spread of the virus. The depth and speed of the decline will rival that of the Great Depression. But will the aftermath be as painful? Or…

The monthly jobs report—the unemployment rate from one survey and the change in employer payrolls from another survey—is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, particularly at a time of an economic crisis like today. Here’s a look at how these data are collected and how to interpret them during the COVID-19 pandemic. What…

Apr 7, 2020

Henry Kissinger warns that many existing domestic and international institutions that have helped govern the past decades will not survive the Covid-19 crisis. He is surely correct.

Apr 10, 2020

This policy brief emphasizes that the European Green Deal's effectiveness in a post Covid-19 world will require the involvement of strategic partners, especially the US. In the context of a potential US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the consequential vacuum, it will be even more important to engage the US in implementing the GD. In light of divergence between the US and the EU during past climate negotiations (e.g. Kyoto, Copenhagen, and Paris), we suggest a gradual approach to US engagement with GD initiatives and objectives.

Apr 15, 2020

Ever since the World Health Organization declared Europe the new epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic on March 13, China has seized the opportunity to provide relief to some of the worst-hit European countries as part of a concerted PR offensive aiming at polishing up the Communist Party’s image internationally and — above all — domestically. Although China’s aid offers have generally been welcomed by those leaders struggling to contain the outbreak, it is still far too early to conclude that Beijing is actually winning over any European hearts and minds. 

Apr 26, 2020

Joseph Nye suggests that a new U.S. administration might take a leaf from the success of the post-1945 American presidents that are described in Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump. The United States could launch a massive COVID-19 aid program like the Marshall Plan.

Apr 30, 2020

As the divergent experiences of the US and South Korea show, testing can be the difference between disease containment and catastrophe. Rather than relying on national governments to ensure the rapid development, production, and deployment of diagnostics during outbreaks, the world needs a global coordinating platform.

Mar 26, 2020

Joseph Nye writes that while trade wars have set back economic globalization,  the environmental globalization represented by pandemics and climate change is unstoppable. Borders are becoming more porous to everything from drugs to infectious diseases to cyber terrorism, and the United States must use its soft power of attraction to develop networks and institutions that address these new threats.

Apr 17, 2020

This episode of Horns of a Dilemma touches on whether the failure to properly anticipate and warn about the novel coronavirus constitutes an intelligence failure, what changes might be required in the intelligence community in the wake of the pandemic, and what type of investigation or inquiry might be appropriate in order to learn lessons and incorporate changes for both the intelligence community and the whole of government moving forward.

Apr 24, 2020

Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.

With the saga over the U.S.S. Teddy Roosevelt aircraft carrier starting to fade from the headlines, a larger question about the American armed forces and COVID-19 remains. How will we keep our military combat-ready, and thus fully capable of deterrence globally, until a vaccine is available to our troops? It will also be crucial to…

Two years after the National Defense Strategy was published, it’s time to take stock of where the Army stands. On an immediate level, the age of COVID-19 presents the Army with an unprecedented set of challenges. From ensuring high levels of readiness to keeping up recruitment, the pandemic has forced the Army to adapt quickly…

The consequences of the novel coronavirus pandemic stretch across the entirety of government services. Major police agencies have reported absentee rates as high as 20% due to officers who are either themselves afflicted with the virus or in need of self-quarantine. Reported crimes are generally down in America’s cities as a result of the many…

The release of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook provides an initial country-by-country assessment of what might happen to the world economy in 2020 and 2021. Using the methods described in the World Poverty Clock, we ask what will happen to the number of poor people in the world—those living in households with less than $1.90…

Responding to the coronavirus as individuals, society, and governments is challenging enough in the United States and other developed countries with modern infrastructure and stable systems, but what happens when a pandemic strikes poor and unstable countries that have few hospitals, lack reliable electricity, water, and food supplies, don’t have refrigeration, and suffer from social…

Across America, incarcerated people are being hit hard by COVID-19. The infection rate in Washington, D.C., jails is 14 times higher than the general population of the city. In one Michigan correctional facility, more than 600 incarcerated people have tested positive — almost 50% of the prison's total population. In Arkansas, about 40% of the…

On Jan. 14, 2017, the Obama White House hosted 30 incoming staff members of the Trump team for a role-playing scenario. A readout of the event said, “The exercise provided a high-level perspective on a series of challenges that the next administration may face and introduced the key authorities, policies, capabilities, and structures that are…

Introduction A combination of escalating costs, an aging population, and rising chronic health-care conditions that account for 75% of the nation’s health-care costs paint a bleak picture of the current state of American health care.1 In 2018, national health expenditures grew to $3.6 trillion and accounted for 17.7% of GDP.2 Under current laws, national health…

It took just two weeks to exhaust one of the largest bailout packages in American history. Even the most generous financial support has limits in a recession. However, I am optimistic that a pandemic-fueled recession and mass underemployment could be an important opportunity to upskill the American workforce through loans for vocational training. Financially supporting…

Amid a catastrophe, new information is often revealed at a faster pace than leaders can manage it, experts can analyze it, and the public can integrate it. In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, the resulting lag in making sense of the crisis has had a profound impact. Public health authorities have warned of the…

Debt relief in Somalia and other African countries On Wednesday, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) jointly announced that Somalia is now eligible for debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. Successfully completing the HIPC program will reduce Somalia’s external debt from $5.2 billion currently to $557 million in about…

Unlike virtually every country in the world, Taiwan has weathered the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic admirably well. Taiwan’s governance system has stood firm in the face of crisis, gaining international acclaim for the competence and efficiency of its response to the outbreak. And the people of Taiwan have garnered goodwill through their generosity,…

African governments begin borrowing from IMF, World Bank to soften hit from COVID-19 This week, several countries and multilateral organizations announced additional measures to combat the economic fallout from COVID-19 in Africa. Among the actions taken by countries, Uganda’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point to 8 percent and directed…

While the world’s attention appropriately focuses on the health and economic impacts of COVID-19, the threat of violent extremism remains, and has in some circumstances been exacerbated during the crisis. The moment demands new and renewed attention so that the gains made to date do not face setbacks. Headlines over the past few weeks have…

Amid rising layoffs and rampant uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s a good thing that Democrats in the House of Representatives say they plan to move quickly to advance the next big coronavirus relief package. Especially important is the fact that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) seems determined to build the next package around a generous infusion…

As the COVID-19 pandemic nears 2 million confirmed infections, scientists and doctors are working on treatments for the sick as well as preventive measures to stop the spread of infection. Dr. William A. Haseltine, known for his groundbreaking work on HIV-AIDS and pioneering application of genomics to drug discovery with Human Genome Sciences, joined USC-Brookings…

The coronavirus outbreak has generated an immediate need for telehealth services to prevent further infections in the delivery of health care. Before the global pandemic, federal and state regulations around reimbursement and licensure requirements limited the use of telehealth. Private insurance programs and Medicaid have historically excluded telehealth from their coverage, and state parity laws…

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing large shifts in health care delivery as hospitals and physicians mobilize to treat COVID-19 patients and defer nonemergent care. These shifts carry major financial implications for providers, payers, and patients. This analysis seeks to quantify one dimension of these financial consequences: the amounts that will be spent on direct COVID-19…

Introduction A combination of escalating costs, an aging population, and rising chronic health-care conditions that account for 75% of the nation’s health-care costs paint a bleak picture of the current state of American health care.1 In 2018, national health expenditures grew to $3.6 trillion and accounted for 17.7% of GDP.2 Under current laws, national health…

The full economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic came into sharp relief this week, as unemployment claims and small business closures both skyrocketed. Addressing the fallout will require a massive federal stimulus, and both Congress and the White House have proposed aid packages exceeding $1 trillion. But as we noted on Monday, immediate assistance to…

On April 1, the City of St. Louis released the number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) by zip code. Although the number of COVID-19 tests conducted by zip code has not yet been disclosed by officials—which suggests that the data are not fully representative of all cases—we do see stark differences in…

On March 8, some 80,000 women in Mexico marched to protest violence against women. A day later, many women stayed home away from work and public places to demand the Mexican government and society take actions to protect women from femicides and domestic violence. Then, as the coronavirus (COVID-19) started sweeping through the United States…

The U.S. scores below many industrialized nations in rates of child poverty, lagging behind France, Hungary, and Chile, among others. Dramatically different social safety net and health care systems, population diversity, economic and political stability, and capitalist society values with purported opportunities are only a few of the many explanations for the disparities that play…

While we are all adjusting to new precautions as we start to understand how serious the COVID-19 coronavirus is, we also need to be concerned about how to minimize the toll that such precautions will have on our most economically vulnerable citizens. A country with the levels of racial and income inequality that we have…

Introduction A combination of escalating costs, an aging population, and rising chronic health-care conditions that account for 75% of the nation’s health-care costs paint a bleak picture of the current state of American health care.1 In 2018, national health expenditures grew to $3.6 trillion and accounted for 17.7% of GDP.2 Under current laws, national health…

It took just two weeks to exhaust one of the largest bailout packages in American history. Even the most generous financial support has limits in a recession. However, I am optimistic that a pandemic-fueled recession and mass underemployment could be an important opportunity to upskill the American workforce through loans for vocational training. Financially supporting…

Amid a catastrophe, new information is often revealed at a faster pace than leaders can manage it, experts can analyze it, and the public can integrate it. In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, the resulting lag in making sense of the crisis has had a profound impact. Public health authorities have warned of the…

It has been more than a month since the first COVID-19 case was detected in Turkey. Since then, the number of cases has shot up significantly, placing Turkey among the top 10 countries worldwide in terms of cases. Government efforts have kept the number of deaths relatively low, and the health system so far appears…

In 2015, an action movie about a group of elite paratroopers from the People’s Liberation Army, “Wolf Warrior,” dominated box offices across China. In 2020, the nationalistic chest-thumping spirit of that movie is defining Chinese diplomacy, or at least the propaganda surrounding it. This aggressive new style is known as “wolf warrior diplomacy,” and although…

Executive Summary This policy brief invokes the standards of ancient Greek drama to analyze the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential tragedy in U.S.-China relations and a potential tragedy for the world. The nature of the two countries’ political realities in 2020 have led to initial mismanagement of the crisis on both sides of the Pacific.…

South Africa announces stimulus plan and a pathway for opening up As of this writing, the African continent has registered over 27,800 COVID-19 cases, with over 1,300 confirmed deaths, according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Countries around the continent continue to instate various forms of social distancing restrictions: For example, in…

African governments take varying approaches to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 As of this writing, Africa has registered over 39,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,600 deaths, with most cases concentrated in the north of the continent as well as in South Africa. African countries have enacted various forms of lockdowns, external and internal border closures,…