Pac-12 Networks' Mike Yam has a conversation with UCLA's Natalie Chou during Wednesday's "Pac-12 Perspective" podcast. Chou reflects on her role models, passion for basketball and how her mom has made a big impact on her hoops career.

Watch the debut of "Our Stories - Natalie Chou" on Sunday, May 10 at 12:30 p.m. PT/ 1:30 p.m. MT on Pac-12 Network.

Maddalena Cavicchioli.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 605--631.

Abstract:
The paper treats the modeling of stationary multivariate stochastic processes via a frequency domain model expressed in terms of cepstrum theory. The proposed model nests the vector exponential model of [20] as a special case, and extends the generalised cepstral model of [36] to the multivariate setting, answering a question raised by the last authors in their paper. Contemporarily, we extend the notion of generalised autocovariance function of [35] to vector time series. Then we derive explicit matrix formulas connecting generalised cepstral and autocovariance matrices of the process, and prove the consistency and asymptotic properties of the Whittle likelihood estimators of model parameters. Asymptotic theory for the special case of the vector exponential model is a significant addition to the paper of [20]. We also provide a mathematical machinery, based on matrix differentiation, and computational methods to derive our results, which differ significantly from those employed in the univariate case. The utility of the proposed model is illustrated through Monte Carlo simulation from a bivariate process characterized by a high dynamic range, and an empirical application on time varying minimum variance hedge ratios through the second moments of future and spot prices in the corn commodity market.

Olivier Roustant, Fabrice Gamboa, Bertrand Iooss.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 386--412.

Abstract:
The so-called polynomial chaos expansion is widely used in computer experiments. For example, it is a powerful tool to estimate Sobol’ sensitivity indices. In this paper, we consider generalized chaos expansions built on general tensor Hilbert basis. In this frame, we revisit the computation of the Sobol’ indices with Parseval equalities and give general lower bounds for these indices obtained by truncation. The case of the eigenfunctions system associated with a Poincaré differential operator leads to lower bounds involving the derivatives of the analyzed function and provides an efficient tool for variable screening. These lower bounds are put in action both on toy and real life models demonstrating their accuracy.

François Bachoc, José Betancourt, Reinhard Furrer, Thierry Klein.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1962--2008.

Abstract:
The asymptotic analysis of covariance parameter estimation of Gaussian processes has been subject to intensive investigation. However, this asymptotic analysis is very scarce for non-Gaussian processes. In this paper, we study a class of non-Gaussian processes obtained by regular non-linear transformations of Gaussian processes. We provide the increasing-domain asymptotic properties of the (Gaussian) maximum likelihood and cross validation estimators of the covariance parameters of a non-Gaussian process of this class. We show that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, although they are defined as if the process was Gaussian. They do not need to model or estimate the non-linear transformation. Our results can thus be interpreted as a robustness of (Gaussian) maximum likelihood and cross validation towards non-Gaussianity. Our proofs rely on two technical results that are of independent interest for the increasing-domain asymptotic literature of spatial processes. First, we show that, under mild assumptions, coefficients of inverses of large covariance matrices decay at an inverse polynomial rate as a function of the corresponding observation location distances. Second, we provide a general central limit theorem for quadratic forms obtained from transformed Gaussian processes. Finally, our asymptotic results are illustrated by numerical simulations.

Daren Wang, Yi Yu, Alessandro Rinaldo.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1917--1961.

Abstract:
The problem of univariate mean change point detection and localization based on a sequence of $n$ independent observations with piecewise constant means has been intensively studied for more than half century, and serves as a blueprint for change point problems in more complex settings. We provide a complete characterization of this classical problem in a general framework in which the upper bound $sigma ^{2}$ on the noise variance, the minimal spacing $Delta $ between two consecutive change points and the minimal magnitude $kappa $ of the changes, are allowed to vary with $n$. We first show that consistent localization of the change points is impossible in the low signal-to-noise ratio regime $frac{kappa sqrt{Delta }}{sigma }preceq sqrt{log (n)}$. In contrast, when $frac{kappa sqrt{Delta }}{sigma }$ diverges with $n$ at the rate of at least $sqrt{log (n)}$, we demonstrate that two computationally-efficient change point estimators, one based on the solution to an $ell _{0}$-penalized least squares problem and the other on the popular wild binary segmentation algorithm, are both consistent and achieve a localization rate of the order $frac{sigma ^{2}}{kappa ^{2}}log (n)$. We further show that such rate is minimax optimal, up to a $log (n)$ term.

Xuening Zhu.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1413--1448.

Abstract:
High dimensional time series receive considerable attention recently, whose temporal and cross-sectional dependency could be captured by the vector autoregression (VAR) model. To tackle with the high dimensionality, penalization methods are widely employed. However, theoretically, the existing studies of the penalization methods mainly focus on $i.i.d$ data, therefore cannot quantify the effect of the dependence level on the convergence rate. In this work, we use the spectral properties of the time series to quantify the dependence and derive a nonasymptotic upper bound for the estimation errors. By focusing on the nonconcave penalization methods, we manage to establish the oracle properties of the penalized VAR model estimation by considering the effects of temporal and cross-sectional dependence. Extensive numerical studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance using different penalization functions. Lastly, an air pollution data of mainland China is analyzed for illustration purpose.

Vincent Brault, Christine Keribin, Mahendra Mariadassou.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1234--1268.

Abstract:
The Latent Block Model (LBM) is a model-based method to cluster simultaneously the $d$ columns and $n$ rows of a data matrix. Parameter estimation in LBM is a difficult and multifaceted problem. Although various estimation strategies have been proposed and are now well understood empirically, theoretical guarantees about their asymptotic behavior is rather sparse and most results are limited to the binary setting. We prove here theoretical guarantees in the valued settings. We show that under some mild conditions on the parameter space, and in an asymptotic regime where $log (d)/n$ and $log (n)/d$ tend to $0$ when $n$ and $d$ tend to infinity, (1) the maximum-likelihood estimate of the complete model (with known labels) is consistent and (2) the log-likelihood ratios are equivalent under the complete and observed (with unknown labels) models. This equivalence allows us to transfer the asymptotic consistency, and under mild conditions, asymptotic normality, to the maximum likelihood estimate under the observed model. Moreover, the variational estimator is also consistent and, under the same conditions, asymptotically normal.

Mario Teixeira Parente, Jonas Wallin, Barbara Wohlmuth.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 917--943.

Abstract:
In this article, we consider scenarios in which traditional estimates for the active subspace method based on probabilistic Poincaré inequalities are not valid due to unbounded Poincaré constants. Consequently, we propose a framework that allows to derive generalized estimates in the sense that it enables to control the trade-off between the size of the Poincaré constant and a weaker order of the final error bound. In particular, we investigate independently exponentially distributed random variables in dimension two or larger and give explicit expressions for corresponding Poincaré constants showing their dependence on the dimension of the problem. Finally, we suggest possibilities for future work that aim for extending the class of distributions applicable to the active subspace method as we regard this as an opportunity to enlarge its usability.

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a well-established tool in machine learning and data processing. The principal axes in PCA were shown to be equivalent to the maximum marginal likelihood estimator of the factor loading matrix in a latent factor model for the observed data, assuming that the latent factors are independently distributed as standard normal distributions. However, the independence assumption may be unrealistic for many scenarios such as modeling multiple time series, spatial processes, and functional data, where the outcomes are correlated. In this paper, we introduce the generalized probabilistic principal component analysis (GPPCA) to study the latent factor model for multiple correlated outcomes, where each factor is modeled by a Gaussian process. Our method generalizes the previous probabilistic formulation of PCA (PPCA) by providing the closed-form maximum marginal likelihood estimator of the factor loadings and other parameters. Based on the explicit expression of the precision matrix in the marginal likelihood that we derived, the number of the computational operations is linear to the number of output variables. Furthermore, we also provide the closed-form expression of the marginal likelihood when other covariates are included in the mean structure. We highlight the advantage of GPPCA in terms of the practical relevance, estimation accuracy and computational convenience. Numerical studies of simulated and real data confirm the excellent finite-sample performance of the proposed approach.

One of the common tasks in unsupervised learning is dimensionality reduction, where the goal is to find meaningful low-dimensional structures hidden in high-dimensional data. Sometimes referred to as manifold learning, this problem is closely related to the problem of localization, which aims at embedding a weighted graph into a low-dimensional Euclidean space. Several methods have been proposed for localization, and also manifold learning. Nonetheless, the robustness property of most of them is little understood. In this paper, we obtain perturbation bounds for classical scaling and trilateration, which are then applied to derive performance bounds for Isomap, Landmark Isomap, and Maximum Variance Unfolding. A new perturbation bound for procrustes analysis plays a key role.

This paper develops deterministic upper and lower bounds on the influence measure in a network, more precisely, the expected number of nodes that a seed set can influence in the independent cascade model. In particular, our bounds exploit r-nonbacktracking walks and Fortuin-Kasteleyn-Ginibre (FKG) type inequalities, and are computed by message passing algorithms. Further, we provide parameterized versions of the bounds that control the trade-off between efficiency and accuracy. Finally, the tightness of the bounds is illustrated on various network models.

We present new excess risk bounds for general unbounded loss functions including log loss and squared loss, where the distribution of the losses may be heavy-tailed. The bounds hold for general estimators, but they are optimized when applied to $eta$-generalized Bayesian, MDL, and empirical risk minimization estimators. In the case of log loss, the bounds imply convergence rates for generalized Bayesian inference under misspecification in terms of a generalization of the Hellinger metric as long as the learning rate $eta$ is set correctly. For general loss functions, our bounds rely on two separate conditions: the $v$-GRIP (generalized reversed information projection) conditions, which control the lower tail of the excess loss; and the newly introduced witness condition, which controls the upper tail. The parameter $v$ in the $v$-GRIP conditions determines the achievable rate and is akin to the exponent in the Tsybakov margin condition and the Bernstein condition for bounded losses, which the $v$-GRIP conditions generalize; favorable $v$ in combination with small model complexity leads to $ ilde{O}(1/n)$ rates. The witness condition allows us to connect the excess risk to an 'annealed' version thereof, by which we generalize several previous results connecting Hellinger and Rényi divergence to KL divergence.

We develop an encompassing framework for matching, covariate balancing, and doubly-robust methods for causal inference from observational data called generalized optimal matching (GOM). The framework is given by generalizing a new functional-analytical formulation of optimal matching, giving rise to the class of GOM methods, for which we provide a single unified theory to analyze tractability and consistency. Many commonly used existing methods are included in GOM and, using their GOM interpretation, can be extended to optimally and automatically trade off balance for variance and outperform their standard counterparts. As a subclass, GOM gives rise to kernel optimal matching (KOM), which, as supported by new theoretical and empirical results, is notable for combining many of the positive properties of other methods in one. KOM, which is solved as a linearly-constrained convex-quadratic optimization problem, inherits both the interpretability and model-free consistency of matching but can also achieve the $sqrt{n}$-consistency of well-specified regression and the bias reduction and robustness of doubly robust methods. In settings of limited overlap, KOM enables a very transparent method for interval estimation for partial identification and robust coverage. We demonstrate this in examples with both synthetic and real data.

Abedin Haidari, Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi, Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 1, 150--166.

Abstract:
Consider two parallel systems, say $A$ and $B$, with respective lifetimes $T_{1}$ and $T_{2}$ wherein independent component lifetimes of each system follow exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with possibly different exponential shape and scale parameters. We show here that $T_{2}$ is smaller than $T_{1}$ with respect to the usual stochastic order (reversed hazard rate order) if the vector of logarithm (the main vector) of scale parameters of System $B$ is weakly weighted majorized by that of System $A$, and if the vector of exponential shape parameters of System $A$ is unordered mojorized by that of System $B$. By means of some examples, we show that the above results can not be extended to the hazard rate and likelihood ratio orders. However, when the scale parameters of each system divide into two homogeneous groups, we verify that the usual stochastic and reversed hazard rate orders can be extended, respectively, to the hazard rate and likelihood ratio orders. The established results complete and strengthen some of the known results in the literature.

Dan J. Spitzner.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 4, 861--893.

Abstract:
This article proposes a calibration scheme for Bayesian testing that coordinates analytically-derived statistical performance considerations with expert opinion. In other words, the scheme is effective and meaningful for incorporating objective elements into subjective Bayesian inference. It explores a novel role for default priors as anchors for calibration rather than substitutes for prior knowledge. Ideas are developed for use with multiplicity adjustments in multiple-model contexts, and to address the issue of prior sensitivity of Bayes factors. Along the way, the performance properties of an existing multiplicity adjustment related to the Poisson distribution are clarified theoretically. Connections of the overall calibration scheme to the Schwarz criterion are also explored. The proposed framework is examined and illustrated on a number of existing data sets related to problems in clinical trials, forensic pattern matching, and log-linear models methodology.

Katarzyna Jańczak-Borkowska.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 3, 480--497.

Abstract:
We prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution of backward stochastic variational inequalities with respect to fractional Brownian motion and with non-Lipschitz coefficient. We assume that $H>1/2$.

Kushal K. Dey, Sourabh Bhattacharya.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 2, 222--266.

Abstract:
Transformation based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) was proposed by Dutta and Bhattacharya ( Statistical Methodology 16 (2014) 100–116) as an efficient alternative to the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, especially in high dimensions. The main advantage of this algorithm is that it simultaneously updates all components of a high dimensional parameter using appropriate move types defined by deterministic transformation of a single random variable. This results in reduction in time complexity at each step of the chain and enhances the acceptance rate. In this paper, we first provide a brief review of the optimal scaling theory for various existing MCMC approaches, comparing and contrasting them with the corresponding TMCMC approaches.The optimal scaling of the simplest form of TMCMC, namely additive TMCMC , has been studied extensively for the Gaussian proposal density in Dey and Bhattacharya (2017a). Here, we discuss diffusion-based optimal scaling behavior of additive TMCMC for non-Gaussian proposal densities—in particular, uniform, Student’s $t$ and Cauchy proposals. Although we could not formally prove our diffusion result for the Cauchy proposal, simulation based results lead us to conjecture that at least the recipe for obtaining general optimal scaling and optimal acceptance rate holds for the Cauchy case as well. We also consider diffusion based optimal scaling of TMCMC when the target density is discontinuous. Such non-regular situations have been studied in the case of Random Walk Metropolis Hastings (RWMH) algorithm by Neal and Roberts ( Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 13 (2011) 583–601) using expected squared jumping distance (ESJD), but the diffusion theory based scaling has not been considered. We compare our diffusion based optimally scaled TMCMC approach with the ESJD based optimally scaled RWM with simulation studies involving several target distributions and proposal distributions including the challenging Cauchy proposal case, showing that additive TMCMC outperforms RWMH in almost all cases considered.

Nancy Heckman

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 6, 113--141.

Abstract:
The popular cubic smoothing spline estimate of a regression function arises as the minimizer of the penalized sum of squares $sum_{j}(Y_{j}-mu(t_{j}))^{2}+lambda int_{a}^{b}[mu''(t)]^{2},dt$, where the data are $t_{j},Y_{j}$, $j=1,ldots,n$. The minimization is taken over an infinite-dimensional function space, the space of all functions with square integrable second derivatives. But the calculations can be carried out in a finite-dimensional space. The reduction from minimizing over an infinite dimensional space to minimizing over a finite dimensional space occurs for more general objective functions: the data may be related to the function $mu$ in another way, the sum of squares may be replaced by a more suitable expression, or the penalty, $int_{a}^{b}[mu''(t)]^{2},dt$, might take a different form. This paper reviews the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space structure that provides a finite-dimensional solution for a general minimization problem. Particular attention is paid to the construction and study of the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space corresponding to a penalty based on a linear differential operator. In this case, one can often calculate the minimizer explicitly, using Green’s functions.

Gery Geenens

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 5, 30--43.

Abstract:
Recently, some nonparametric regression ideas have been extended to the case of functional regression. Within that framework, the main concern arises from the infinite dimensional nature of the explanatory objects. Specifically, in the classical multivariate regression context, it is well-known that any nonparametric method is affected by the so-called “curse of dimensionality”, caused by the sparsity of data in high-dimensional spaces, resulting in a decrease in fastest achievable rates of convergence of regression function estimators toward their target curve as the dimension of the regressor vector increases. Therefore, it is not surprising to find dramatically bad theoretical properties for the nonparametric functional regression estimators, leading many authors to condemn the methodology. Nevertheless, a closer look at the meaning of the functional data under study and on the conclusions that the statistician would like to draw from it allows to consider the problem from another point-of-view, and to justify the use of slightly modified estimators. In most cases, it can be entirely legitimate to measure the proximity between two elements of the infinite dimensional functional space via a semi-metric, which could prevent those estimators suffering from what we will call the “curse of infinite dimensionality”.

References:
[1] Ait-Saïdi, A., Ferraty, F., Kassa, K. and Vieu, P. (2008). Cross-validated estimations in the single-functional index model, Statistics, 42, 475–494.

[2] Aneiros-Perez, G. and Vieu, P. (2008). Nonparametric time series prediction: A semi-functional partial linear modeling, J. Multivariate Anal., 99, 834–857.

[3] Baillo, A. and Grané, A. (2009). Local linear regression for functional predictor and scalar response, J. Multivariate Anal., 100, 102–111.

[4] Burba, F., Ferraty, F. and Vieu, P. (2009). k-Nearest Neighbour method in functional nonparametric regression, J. Nonparam. Stat., 21, 453–469.

[5] Cardot, H., Ferraty, F. and Sarda, P. (1999). Functional linear model, Stat. Probabil. Lett., 45, 11–22.

[6] Crambes, C., Kneip, A. and Sarda, P. (2009). Smoothing splines estimators for functional linear regression, Ann. Statist., 37, 35–72.

[7] Delsol, L. (2009). Advances on asymptotic normality in nonparametric functional time series analysis, Statistics, 43, 13–33.

[8] Fan, J. and Gijbels, I. (1996). Local Polynomial Modelling and Its Applications, Chapman and Hall, London.

[9] Fan, J. and Zhang, J.-T. (2000). Two-step estimation of functional linear models with application to longitudinal data, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 62, 303–322.

[10] Ferraty, F. and Vieu, P. (2006). Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis, Springer-Verlag, New York.

[11] Ferraty, F., Laksaci, A. and Vieu, P. (2006). Estimating Some Characteristics of the Conditional Distribution in Nonparametric Functional Models, Statist. Inf. Stoch. Proc., 9, 47–76.

[12] Ferraty, F., Mas, A. and Vieu, P. (2007). Nonparametric regression on functional data: inference and practical aspects, Aust. NZ. J. Stat., 49, 267–286.

[13] Ferraty, F., Van Keilegom, I. and Vieu, P. (2010). On the validity of the bootstrap in nonparametric functional regression, Scand. J. Stat., 37, 286–306.

[14] Ferraty, F., Laksaci, A., Tadj, A. and Vieu, P. (2010). Rate of uniform consistency for nonparametric estimates with functional variables, J. Stat. Plan. Inf., 140, 335–352.

[15] Ferraty, F. and Romain, Y. (2011). Oxford handbook on functional data analysis (Eds), Oxford University Press.

[16] Gasser, T., Hall, P. and Presnell, B. (1998). Nonparametric estimation of the mode of a distribution of random curves, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 60, 681–691.

[17] Geenens, G. (2011). A nonparametric functional method for signature recognition, Manuscript.

[18] Härdle, W., Müller, M., Sperlich, S. and Werwatz, A. (2004). Nonparametric and semiparametric models, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

[19] James, G.M. (2002). Generalized linear models with functional predictors, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 64, 411–432.

[20] Masry, E. (2005). Nonparametric regression estimation for dependent functional data: asymptotic normality, Stochastic Process. Appl., 115, 155–177.

[21] Nadaraya, E.A. (1964). On estimating regression, Theory Probab. Applic., 9, 141–142.

[22] Quintela-Del-Rio, A. (2008). Hazard function given a functional variable: nonparametric estimation under strong mixing conditions, J. Nonparam. Stat., 20, 413–430.

[23] Rachdi, M. and Vieu, P. (2007). Nonparametric regression for functional data: automatic smoothing parameter selection, J. Stat. Plan. Inf., 137, 2784–2801.

[24] Ramsay, J. and Silverman, B.W. (1997). Functional Data Analysis, Springer-Verlag, New York.

[25] Ramsay, J. and Silverman, B.W. (2002). Applied functional data analysis; methods and case study, Springer-Verlag, New York.

[26] Ramsay, J. and Silverman, B.W. (2005). Functional Data Analysis, 2nd Edition, Springer-Verlag, New York.

[27] Stone, C.J. (1982). Optimal global rates of convergence for nonparametric regression, Ann. Stat., 10, 1040–1053.

[28] Watson, G.S. (1964). Smooth regression analysis, Sankhya A, 26, 359–372.

[29] Yeung, D.T., Chang, H., Xiong, Y., George, S., Kashi, R., Matsumoto, T. and Rigoll, G. (2004). SVC2004: First International Signature Verification Competition, Proceedings of the International Conference on Biometric Authentication (ICBA), Hong Kong, July 2004.

Gregory J. Matthews, Ofer Harel

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 5, 1--29.

Abstract:
There is an ever increasing demand from researchers for access to useful microdata files. However, there are also growing concerns regarding the privacy of the individuals contained in the microdata. Ideally, microdata could be released in such a way that a balance between usefulness of the data and privacy is struck. This paper presents a review of proposed methods of statistical disclosure control and techniques for assessing the privacy of such methods under different definitions of disclosure.

References:
Abowd, J., Woodcock, S., 2001. Disclosure limitation in longitudinal linked data. Confidentiality, Disclosure, and Data Access: Theory and Practical Applications for Statistical Agencies, 215–277.

Adam, N.R., Worthmann, J.C., 1989. Security-control methods for statistical databases: a comparative study. ACM Comput. Surv. 21 (4), 515–556.

Armstrong, M., Rushton, G., Zimmerman, D.L., 1999. Geographically masking health data to preserve confidentiality. Statistics in Medicine 18 (5), 497–525.

Bethlehem, J.G., Keller, W., Pannekoek, J., 1990. Disclosure control of microdata. Jorunal of the American Statistical Association 85, 38–45.

Blum, A., Dwork, C., McSherry, F., Nissam, K., 2005. Practical privacy: The sulq framework. In: Proceedings of the 24th ACM SIGMOD-SIGACT-SIGART Symposium on Principles of Database Systems. pp. 128–138.

Bowden, R.J., Sim, A.B., 1992. The privacy bootstrap. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10 (3), 337–345.

Carlson, M., Salabasis, M., 2002. A data-swapping technique for generating synthetic samples; a method for disclosure control. Res. Official Statist. (5), 35–64.

Cox, L.H., 1980. Suppression methodology and statistical disclosure control. Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, 377–385.

Cox, L.H., 1984. Disclosure control methods for frequency count data. Tech. rep., U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Cox, L.H., 1987. A constructive procedure for unbiased controlled rounding. Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 520–524.

Cox, L.H., 1994. Matrix masking methods for disclosure limitation in microdata. Survey Methodology 6, 165–169.

Cox, L.H., Fagan, J.T., Greenberg, B., Hemmig, R., 1987. Disclosure avoidance techniques for tabular data. Tech. rep., U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Dalenius, T., 1977. Towards a methodology for statistical disclosure control. Statistik Tidskrift 15, 429–444.

Dalenius, T., 1986. Finding a needle in a haystack - or identifying anonymous census record. Journal of Official Statistics 2 (3), 329–336.

Dalenius, T., Denning, D., 1982. A hybrid scheme for release of statistics. Statistisk Tidskrift.

Dalenius, T., Reiss, S.P., 1982. Data-swapping: A technique for disclosure control. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 6, 73–85.

De Waal, A., Hundepool, A., Willenborg, L., 1995. Argus: Software for statistical disclosure control of microdata. U.S. Census Bureau.

DeGroot, M.H., 1962. Uncertainty, information, and sequential experiments. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33, 404–419.

DeGroot, M.H., 1970. Optimal Statistical Decisions. Mansell, London.

Dinur, I., Nissam, K., 2003. Revealing information while preserving privacy. In: Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGMOD-SIGACT-SIGART Symposium on Principlesof Database Systems. pp. 202–210.

Domingo-Ferrer, J., Torra, V., 2001a. A Quantitative Comparison of Disclosure Control Methods for Microdata. In: Doyle, P., Lane, J., Theeuwes, J., Zayatz, L. (Eds.), Confidentiality, Disclosure and Data Access - Theory and Practical Applications for Statistical Agencies. North-Holland, Amsterdam, Ch. 6, pp. 113–135.

Domingo-Ferrer, J., Torra, V., 2001b. Disclosure control methods and information loss for microdata. In: Doyle, P., Lane, J., Theeuwes, J., Zayatz, L. (Eds.), Confidentiality, Disclosure and Data Access - Theory and Practical Applications for Statistical Agencies. North-Holland, Amsterdam, Ch. 5, pp. 93–112.

Duncan, G., Lambert, D., 1986. Disclosure-limited data dissemination. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, 10–28.

Duncan, G., Lambert, D., 1989. The risk of disclosure for microdata. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 7, 207–217.

Duncan, G., Pearson, R., 1991. Enhancing access to microdata while protecting confidentiality: prospects for the future (with discussion). Statistical Science 6, 219–232.

Dwork, C., 2006. Differential privacy. In: ICALP. Springer, pp. 1–12.

Dwork, C., 2008. An ad omnia approach to defining and achieving private data analysis. In: Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Springer, p. 10.

Dwork, C., Lei, J., 2009. Differential privacy and robust statistics. In: Proceedings of the 41th Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing (STOC). pp. 371–380.

Dwork, C., Mcsherry, F., Nissim, K., Smith, A., 2006. Calibrating noise to sensitivity in private data analysis. In: Proceedings of the 3rd Theory of Cryptography Conference. Springer, pp. 265–284.

Dwork, C., Nissam, K., 2004. Privacy-preserving datamining on vertically partitioned databases. In: Advances in Cryptology: Proceedings of Crypto. pp. 528–544.

Elliot, M., 2000. DIS: a new approach to the measurement of statistical disclosure risk. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management 2, 39–48.

Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology (FCSM), 2005. Statistical policy working group 22 - report on statistical disclosure limitation methodology. U.S. Census Bureau.

Fellegi, I.P., 1972. On the question of statistical confidentiality. Journal of the American Statistical Association 67 (337), 7–18.

Fienberg, S.E., McIntyre, J., 2004. Data swapping: Variations on a theme by Dalenius and Reiss. In: Domingo-Ferrer, J., Torra, V. (Eds.), Privacy in Statistical Databases. Vol. 3050 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, pp. 519, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/ 978-3-540-25955-8_2

Fuller, W., 1993. Masking procedurse for microdata disclosure limitation. Journal of Official Statistics 9, 383–406.

General Assembly of the United Nations, 1948. Universal declaration of human rights.

Gouweleeuw, J., P. Kooiman, L.W., de Wolf, P.-P., 1998. Post randomisation for statistical disclosure control: Theory and implementation. Journal of Official Statistics 14 (4), 463–478.

Greenberg, B., 1987. Rank swapping for masking ordinal microdata. Tech. rep., U.S. Bureau of the Census (unpublished manuscript), Suitland, Maryland, USA.

Greenberg, B.G., Abul-Ela, A.-L.A., Simmons, W.R., Horvitz, D.G., 1969. The unrelated question randomized response model: Theoretical framework. Journal of the American Statistical Association 64 (326), 520–539.

Harel, O., Zhou, X.-H., 2007. Multiple imputation: Review and theory, implementation and software. Statistics in Medicine 26, 3057–3077.

Hundepool, A., Domingo-ferrer, J., Franconi, L., Giessing, S., Lenz, R., Longhurst, J., Nordholt, E.S., Seri, G., paul De Wolf, P., 2006. A CENtre of EXcellence for Statistical Disclosure Control Handbook on Statistical Disclosure Control Version 1.01.

Hundepool, A., Wetering, A. v.d., Ramaswamy, R., Wolf, P.d., Giessing, S., Fischetti, M., Salazar, J., Castro, J., Lowthian, P., Feb. 2005. τ-argus 3.1 user manual. Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg NL.

Hundepool, A., Willenborg, L., 1996. μ- and τ-argus: Software for statistical disclosure control. Third International Seminar on Statistical Confidentiality, Bled.

Karr, A., Kohnen, C.N., Oganian, A., Reiter, J.P., Sanil, A.P., 2006. A framework for evaluating the utility of data altered to protect confidentiality. American Statistician 60 (3), 224–232.

Kaufman, S., Seastrom, M., Roey, S., 2005. Do disclosure controls to protect confidentiality degrade the quality of the data? In: American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research.

Kennickell, A.B., 1997. Multiple imputation and disclosure protection: the case of the 1995 survey of consumer finances. Record Linkage Techniques, 248–267.

Kim, J., 1986. Limiting disclosure in microdata based on random noise and transformation. Bureau of the Census.

Krumm, J., 2007. Inference attacks on location tracks. Proceedings of Fifth International Conference on Pervasive Computingy, 127–143.

Li, N., Li, T., Venkatasubramanian, S., 2007. t-closeness: Privacy beyond k-anonymity and l-diversity. In: Data Engineering, 2007. ICDE 2007. IEEE 23rd International Conference on. pp. 106–115.

Liew, C.K., Choi, U.J., Liew, C.J., 1985. A data distortion by probability distribution. ACM Trans. Database Syst. 10 (3), 395–411.

Little, R.J.A., 1993. Statistical analysis of masked data. Journal of Official Statistics 9, 407–426.

Little, R.J.A., Rubin, D.B., 1987. Statistical Analysis with Missing Data. John Wiley & Sons.

Liu, F., Little, R.J.A., 2002. Selective multiple mputation of keys for statistical disclosure control in microdata. In: Proceedings Joint Statistical Meet. pp. 2133–2138.

Machanavajjhala, A., Kifer, D., Abowd, J., Gehrke, J., Vilhuber, L., April 2008. Privacy: Theory meets practice on the map. In: International Conference on Data Engineering. Cornell University Comuputer Science Department, Cornell, USA, p. 10.

Machanavajjhala, A., Kifer, D., Gehrke, J., Venkitasubramaniam, M., 2007. L-diversity: Privacy beyond k-anonymity. ACM Trans. Knowl. Discov. Data 1 (1), 3.

Manning, A.M., Haglin, D.J., Keane, J.A., 2008. A recursive search algorithm for statistical disclosure assessment. Data Min. Knowl. Discov. 16 (2), 165–196.

Marsh, C., Skinner, C., Arber, S., Penhale, B., Openshaw, S., Hobcraft, J., Lievesley, D., Walford, N., 1991. The case for samples of anonymized records from the 1991 census. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 154 (2), 305–340.

Matthews, G.J., Harel, O., Aseltine, R.H., 2010a. Assessing database privacy using the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve. Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology 10 (1), 1–15.

Matthews, G.J., Harel, O., Aseltine, R.H., 2010b. Examining the robustness of fully synthetic data techniques for data with binary variables. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 80 (6), 609–624.

Moore, Jr., R., 1996. Controlled data-swapping techniques for masking public use microdata. Census Tech Report.

Mugge, R., 1983. Issues in protecting confidentiality in national health statistics. Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods.

Nissim, K., Raskhodnikova, S., Smith, A., 2007. Smooth sensitivity and sampling in private data analysis. In: STOC ’07: Proceedings of the thirty-ninth annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing. pp. 75–84.

Paass, G., 1988. Disclosure risk and disclosure avoidance for microdata. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 6 (4), 487–500.

Palley, M., Simonoff, J., 1987. The use of regression methodology for the compromise of confidential information in statistical databases. ACM Trans. Database Systems 12 (4), 593–608.

Raghunathan, T.E., Reiter, J.P., Rubin, D.B., 2003. Multiple imputation for statistical disclosure limitation. Journal of Official Statistics 19 (1), 1–16.

Rajasekaran, S., Harel, O., Zuba, M., Matthews, G.J., Aseltine, Jr., R., 2009. Responsible data releases. In: Proceedings 9th Industrial Conference on Data Mining (ICDM). Springer LNCS, pp. 388–400.

Reiss, S.P., 1984. Practical data-swapping: The first steps. CM Transactions on Database Systems 9, 20–37.

Reiter, J.P., 2002. Satisfying disclosure restriction with synthetic data sets. Journal of Official Statistics 18 (4), 531–543.

Reiter, J.P., 2003. Inference for partially synthetic, public use microdata sets. Survey Methodology 29 (2), 181–188.

Reiter, J.P., 2004a. New approaches to data dissemination: A glimpse into the future (?). Chance 17 (3), 11–15.

Reiter, J.P., 2004b. Simultaneous use of multiple imputation for missing data and disclosure limitation. Survey Methodology 30 (2), 235–242.

Reiter, J.P., 2005a. Estimating risks of identification disclosure in microdata. Journal of the American Statistical Association 100, 1103–1112.

Reiter, J.P., 2005b. Releasing multiply imputed, synthetic public use microdata: An illustration and empirical study. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society 168 (1), 185–205.

Reiter, J.P., 2005c. Using CART to generate partially synthetic public use microdata. Journal of Official Statistics 21 (3), 441–462.

Rubin, D.B., 1987. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. John Wiley & Sons.

Rubin, D.B., 1993. Comment on “Statistical disclosure limitation”. Journal of Official Statistics 9, 461–468.

Rubner, Y., Tomasi, C., Guibas, L.J., 1998. A metric for distributions with applications to image databases. Computer Vision, IEEE International Conference on 0, 59.

Sarathy, R., Muralidhar, K., 2002a. The security of confidential numerical data in databases. Information Systems Research 13 (4), 389–403.

Sarathy, R., Muralidhar, K., 2002b. The security of confidential numerical data in databases. Info. Sys. Research 13 (4), 389–403.

Schafer, J.L., Graham, J.W., 2002. Missing data: Our view of state of the art. Psychological Methods 7 (2), 147–177.

Singh, A., Yu, F., Dunteman, G., 2003. MASSC: A new data mask for limiting statistical information loss and disclosure. In: Proceedings of the Joint UNECE/EUROSTAT Work Session on Statistical Data Confidentiality. pp. 373–394.

Skinner, C., 2009. Statistical disclosure control for survey data. In: Pfeffermann, D and Rao, C.R. eds. Handbook of Statistics Vol. 29A: Sample Surveys: Design, Methods and Applications. pp. 381–396.

Skinner, C., Marsh, C., Openshaw, S., Wymer, C., 1994. Disclosure control for census microdata. Journal of Official Statistics 10, 31–51.

Skinner, C., Shlomo, N., 2008. Assessing identification risk in survey microdata using log-linear models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 103, 989–1001.

Skinner, C.J., Elliot, M.J., 2002. A measure of disclosure risk for microdata. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Statistical Methodology) 64 (4), 855–867.

Smith, A., 2008. Efficient, dfferentially private point estimators. arXiv:0809.4794v1 [cs.CR].

Spruill, N.L., 1982. Measures of confidentiality. Statistics of Income and Related Administrative Record Research, 131–136.

Spruill, N.L., 1983. The confidentiality and analytic usefulness of masked business microdata. In: Proceedings of the Section on Survey Reserach Microdata. American Statistical Association, pp. 602–607.

Sweeney, L., 1996. Replacing personally-identifying information in medical records, the scrub system. In: American Medical Informatics Association. Hanley and Belfus, Inc., pp. 333–337.

Sweeney, L., 1997. Guaranteeing anonymity when sharing medical data, the datafly system. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 4, 51–55.

Sweeney, L., 2002a. Achieving k-anonymity privacy protection using generalization and suppression. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge Based Systems 10 (5), 571–588.

Sweeney, L., 2002b. k-anonymity: A model for protecting privacy. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge Based Systems 10 (5), 557–570.

Tendick, P., 1991. Optimal noise addition for preserving confidentiality in multivariate data. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 27 (2), 341–353.

United Nations Economic Comission for Europe (UNECE), 2007. Manging statistical cinfidentiality and microdata access: Principles and guidlinesof good practice.

Warner, S.L., 1965. Randomized response: A survey technique for eliminating evasive answer bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association 60 (309), 63–69.

Wasserman, L., Zhou, S., 2010. A statistical framework for differential privacy. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105 (489), 375–389.

Willenborg, L., de Waal, T., 2001. Elements of Statistical Disclosure Control. Springer-Verlag.

Woodward, B., 1995. The computer-based patient record and confidentiality. The New England Journal of Medicine, 1419–1422.

Sylvain Arlot, Alain Celisse

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 4, 40--79.

Abstract:
Used to estimate the risk of an estimator or to perform model selection, cross-validation is a widespread strategy because of its simplicity and its (apparent) universality. Many results exist on model selection performances of cross-validation procedures. This survey intends to relate these results to the most recent advances of model selection theory, with a particular emphasis on distinguishing empirical statements from rigorous theoretical results. As a conclusion, guidelines are provided for choosing the best cross-validation procedure according to the particular features of the problem in hand.

We focus on estimating emph{a priori} generalization error of two-layer ReLU neural networks (NNs) trained by mean squared error, which only depends on initial parameters and the target function, through the following research line. We first estimate emph{a priori} generalization error of finite-width two-layer ReLU NN with constraint of minimal norm solution, which is proved by cite{zhang2019type} to be an equivalent solution of a linearized (w.r.t. parameter) finite-width two-layer NN. As the width goes to infinity, the linearized NN converges to the NN in Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime citep{jacot2018neural}. Thus, we can derive the emph{a priori} generalization error of two-layer ReLU NN in NTK regime. The distance between NN in a NTK regime and a finite-width NN with gradient training is estimated by cite{arora2019exact}. Based on the results in cite{arora2019exact}, our work proves an emph{a priori} generalization error bound of two-layer ReLU NNs. This estimate uses the intrinsic implicit bias of the minimum norm solution without requiring extra regularity in the loss function. This emph{a priori} estimate also implies that NN does not suffer from curse of dimensionality, and a small generalization error can be achieved without requiring exponentially large number of neurons. In addition the research line proposed in this paper can also be used to study other properties of the finite-width network, such as the posterior generalization error.

Boosting is one of the most successful ideas in machine learning. The most well-accepted explanations for the low generalization error of boosting algorithms such as AdaBoost stem from margin theory. The study of margins in the context of boosting algorithms was initiated by Schapire, Freund, Bartlett and Lee (1998) and has inspired numerous boosting algorithms and generalization bounds. To date, the strongest known generalization (upper bound) is the $k$th margin bound of Gao and Zhou (2013). Despite the numerous generalization upper bounds that have been proved over the last two decades, nothing is known about the tightness of these bounds. In this paper, we give the first margin-based lower bounds on the generalization error of boosted classifiers. Our lower bounds nearly match the $k$th margin bound and thus almost settle the generalization performance of boosted classifiers in terms of margins.

Increasing number of sectors which affect human lives, are using Machine Learning (ML) tools. Hence the need for understanding their working mechanism and evaluating their fairness in decision-making, are becoming paramount, ushering in the era of Explainable AI (XAI). In this contribution we introduced a few intrinsically interpretable models which are also capable of dealing with missing values, in addition to extracting knowledge from the dataset and about the problem. These models are also capable of visualisation of the classifier and decision boundaries: they are the angle based variants of Learning Vector Quantization. We have demonstrated the algorithms on a synthetic dataset and a real-world one (heart disease dataset from the UCI repository). The newly developed classifiers helped in investigating the complexities of the UCI dataset as a multiclass problem. The performance of the developed classifiers were comparable to those reported in literature for this dataset, with additional value of interpretability, when the dataset was treated as a binary class problem.

Reducing domain divergence is a key step in transfer learning problems. Existing works focus on the minimization of global domain divergence. However, two domains may consist of several shared subdomains, and differ from each other in each subdomain. In this paper, we take the local divergence of subdomains into account in transfer. Specifically, we propose to use low-dimensional manifold to represent subdomain, and align the local data distribution discrepancy in each manifold across domains. A Manifold Maximum Mean Discrepancy (M3D) is developed to measure the local distribution discrepancy in each manifold. We then propose a general framework, called Transfer with Manifolds Discrepancy Alignment (TMDA), to couple the discovery of data manifolds with the minimization of M3D. We instantiate TMDA in the subspace learning case considering both the linear and nonlinear mappings. We also instantiate TMDA in the deep learning framework. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that TMDA is a promising method for various transfer learning tasks.

Model Stealing (MS) attacks allow an adversary with black-box access to a Machine Learning model to replicate its functionality, compromising the confidentiality of the model. Such attacks train a clone model by using the predictions of the target model for different inputs. The effectiveness of such attacks relies heavily on the availability of data necessary to query the target model. Existing attacks either assume partial access to the dataset of the target model or availability of an alternate dataset with semantic similarities.

This paper proposes MAZE -- a data-free model stealing attack using zeroth-order gradient estimation. In contrast to prior works, MAZE does not require any data and instead creates synthetic data using a generative model. Inspired by recent works in data-free Knowledge Distillation (KD), we train the generative model using a disagreement objective to produce inputs that maximize disagreement between the clone and the target model. However, unlike the white-box setting of KD, where the gradient information is available, training a generator for model stealing requires performing black-box optimization, as it involves accessing the target model under attack. MAZE relies on zeroth-order gradient estimation to perform this optimization and enables a highly accurate MS attack.

Our evaluation with four datasets shows that MAZE provides a normalized clone accuracy in the range of 0.91x to 0.99x, and outperforms even the recent attacks that rely on partial data (JBDA, clone accuracy 0.13x to 0.69x) and surrogate data (KnockoffNets, clone accuracy 0.52x to 0.97x). We also study an extension of MAZE in the partial-data setting and develop MAZE-PD, which generates synthetic data closer to the target distribution. MAZE-PD further improves the clone accuracy (0.97x to 1.0x) and reduces the query required for the attack by 2x-24x.

I study the minimax-optimal design for a two-arm controlled experiment where conditional mean outcomes may vary in a given set. When this set is permutation symmetric, the optimal design is complete randomization, and using a single partition (i.e., the design that only randomizes the treatment labels for each side of the partition) has minimax risk larger by a factor of $n-1$. More generally, the optimal design is shown to be the mixed-strategy optimal design (MSOD) of Kallus (2018). Notably, even when the set of conditional mean outcomes has structure (i.e., is not permutation symmetric), being minimax-optimal for variance still requires randomization beyond a single partition. Nonetheless, since this targets precision, it may still not ensure sufficient uniformity in randomization to enable randomization (i.e., design-based) inference by Fisher's exact test to appropriately detect violations of null. I therefore propose the inference-constrained MSOD, which is minimax-optimal among all designs subject to such uniformity constraints. On the way, I discuss Johansson et al. (2020) who recently compared rerandomization of Morgan and Rubin (2012) and the pure-strategy optimal design (PSOD) of Kallus (2018). I point out some errors therein and set straight that randomization is minimax-optimal and that the "no free lunch" theorem and example in Kallus (2018) are correct.

Sparse estimation via penalized likelihood (PL) is now a popular approach to learn the associations among a large set of variables. This paper describes an R package called lslx that implements PL methods for semi-confirmatory structural equation modeling (SEM). In this semi-confirmatory approach, each model parameter can be specified as free/fixed for theory testing, or penalized for exploration. By incorporating either a L1 or minimax concave penalty, the sparsity pattern of the parameter matrix can be efficiently explored. Package lslx minimizes the PL criterion through a quasi-Newton method. The algorithm conducts line search and checks the first-order condition in each iteration to ensure the optimality of the obtained solution. A numerical comparison between competing packages shows that lslx can reliably find PL estimates with the least time. The current package also supports other advanced functionalities, including a two-stage method with auxiliary variables for missing data handling and a reparameterized multi-group SEM to explore population heterogeneity.

The next seminar in the 2017–18 History of Pre-Modern Medicine seminar series takes place on Tuesday 21 November. Speaker: Professor Roberta Gilchrist (University of Reading), ‘The archaeology of monastic healing: spirit, mind and body’ This paper highlights the potential of archaeology to… Continue reading

Ammunition Depot comments on Judge Roger T. Benitez ruling that Californians may again purchase ammo without a background check and order ammo online.

(PRWeb April 24, 2020)

Read the full story at https://www.prweb.com/releases/gun_rights_california_gun_owners_ammo_dealers_fire_back_against_proposition_63/prweb17075447.htm

Niansheng Tang, Xiaodong Yan, Xingqiu Zhao.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 607--627.

Abstract:
This article considers simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation as well as hypothesis testing in censored survival models where a parametric likelihood is not available. For the problem, we utilize certain growing dimensional general estimating equations and propose a penalized generalized empirical likelihood, where the general estimating equations are constructed based on the semiparametric efficiency bound of estimation with given moment conditions. The proposed penalized generalized empirical likelihood estimators enjoy the oracle properties, and the estimator of any fixed dimensional vector of nonzero parameters achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound asymptotically. Furthermore, we show that the penalized generalized empirical likelihood ratio test statistic has an asymptotic central chi-square distribution. The conditions of local and restricted global optimality of weighted penalized generalized empirical likelihood estimators are also discussed. We present a two-layer iterative algorithm for efficient implementation, and investigate its convergence property. The performance of the proposed methods is demonstrated by extensive simulation studies, and a real data example is provided for illustration.

Søren Wengel Mogensen, Niels Richard Hansen.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 539--559.

Abstract:
Symmetric independence relations are often studied using graphical representations. Ancestral graphs or acyclic directed mixed graphs with $m$-separation provide classes of symmetric graphical independence models that are closed under marginalization. Asymmetric independence relations appear naturally for multivariate stochastic processes, for instance, in terms of local independence. However, no class of graphs representing such asymmetric independence relations, which is also closed under marginalization, has been developed. We develop the theory of directed mixed graphs with $mu $-separation and show that this provides a graphical independence model class which is closed under marginalization and which generalizes previously considered graphical representations of local independence. Several graphs may encode the same set of independence relations and this means that in many cases only an equivalence class of graphs can be identified from observational data. For statistical applications, it is therefore pivotal to characterize graphs that induce the same independence relations. Our main result is that for directed mixed graphs with $mu $-separation each equivalence class contains a maximal element which can be constructed from the independence relations alone. Moreover, we introduce the directed mixed equivalence graph as the maximal graph with dashed and solid edges. This graph encodes all information about the edges that is identifiable from the independence relations, and furthermore it can be computed efficiently from the maximal graph.

François Bachoc, David Preinerstorfer, Lukas Steinberger.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 440--463.

Abstract:
We suggest general methods to construct asymptotically uniformly valid confidence intervals post-model-selection. The constructions are based on principles recently proposed by Berk et al. ( Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 802–837). In particular, the candidate models used can be misspecified, the target of inference is model-specific, and coverage is guaranteed for any data-driven model selection procedure. After developing a general theory, we apply our methods to practically important situations where the candidate set of models, from which a working model is selected, consists of fixed design homoskedastic or heteroskedastic linear models, or of binary regression models with general link functions. In an extensive simulation study, we find that the proposed confidence intervals perform remarkably well, even when compared to existing methods that are tailored only for specific model selection procedures.

Long Feng, Cun-Hui Zhang.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 6, 3069--3098.

Abstract:
The Lasso is biased. Concave penalized least squares estimation (PLSE) takes advantage of signal strength to reduce this bias, leading to sharper error bounds in prediction, coefficient estimation and variable selection. For prediction and estimation, the bias of the Lasso can be also reduced by taking a smaller penalty level than what selection consistency requires, but such smaller penalty level depends on the sparsity of the true coefficient vector. The sorted $ell_{1}$ penalized estimation (Slope) was proposed for adaptation to such smaller penalty levels. However, the advantages of concave PLSE and Slope do not subsume each other. We propose sorted concave penalized estimation to combine the advantages of concave and sorted penalizations. We prove that sorted concave penalties adaptively choose the smaller penalty level and at the same time benefits from signal strength, especially when a significant proportion of signals are stronger than the corresponding adaptively selected penalty levels. A local convex approximation for sorted concave penalties, which extends the local linear and quadratic approximations for separable concave penalties, is developed to facilitate the computation of sorted concave PLSE and proven to possess desired prediction and estimation error bounds. Our analysis of prediction and estimation errors requires the restricted eigenvalue condition on the design, not beyond, and provides selection consistency under a required minimum signal strength condition in addition. Thus, our results also sharpens existing results on concave PLSE by removing the upper sparse eigenvalue component of the sparse Riesz condition.

Chengchun Shi, Rui Song, Zhao Chen, Runze Li.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 5, 2671--2703.

Abstract:
This paper is concerned with testing linear hypotheses in high dimensional generalized linear models. To deal with linear hypotheses, we first propose the constrained partial regularization method and study its statistical properties. We further introduce an algorithm for solving regularization problems with folded-concave penalty functions and linear constraints. To test linear hypotheses, we propose a partial penalized likelihood ratio test, a partial penalized score test and a partial penalized Wald test. We show that the limiting null distributions of these three test statistics are $chi^{2}$ distribution with the same degrees of freedom, and under local alternatives, they asymptotically follow noncentral $chi^{2}$ distributions with the same degrees of freedom and noncentral parameter, provided the number of parameters involved in the test hypothesis grows to $infty$ at a certain rate. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed tests. Empirical analysis of a real data example is used to illustrate the proposed testing procedures.