000
FZNT25 KNHC 091524
OFFN04

NAVTEX Marine Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1124 AM EDT Sat May 9 2020

...Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available
through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed
Coastal Waters Forecasts...

Southeast Gulf of Mexico

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front from extends from the Florida Big Bend
to 28N90W to 25N95W then transitions to a stationary front to
22N98W. A surface trough is ahead of the front in the Bay of
Campeche. The front will move to the central Gulf waters today
and gradually stall through Sun. An area of low pressure is
expected to develop over the SW Gulf today, and track NE toward
South Florida on Sun. The stalled front will then transition
back to a cold front and exit the southeastern Gulf on Mon.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact most of
the southern and eastern Gulf waters this weekend.

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building
to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Scattered tstms.
.SUN...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Numerous showers and
scattered tstms.
.SUN NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
tstms.
.MON...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front extending from 31N77W to 29N81W will
move across the waters N of the Bahamas through Sun. Weak low
pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will track NE across south Florida
into the Bahamas Sun through Mon night enhancing winds and
generating numerous showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the
low, a cold front will move across the northern and central waters
through Mon night, then stall from near 29N65W to central Cuba
late Tue.

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and NW to N
15 to 20 kt N of 27N. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt S of 27N, and NE 15 to 20 kt
N of 27N. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered tstms.
.SUN...E winds 10 to 15 kt S of 27N, and E 15 to 20 kt N of 27N.
Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered tstms.
.SUN NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and E to SE
10 to 15 kt N of 27N. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Numerous showers and
scattered tstms.
.MON...N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192039
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12
hours. The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is
unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon.
Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are
estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data. The
remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with
its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate
southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent.

The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2
kt. The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it
is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net
distance of 50-100 n mi during that period. A slight westward
adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account
for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies
along the western edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 192037
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 125.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 192038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...OCTAVE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 125.7W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave
was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 125.7 West. Octave
is moving toward the east-northeast near 2 mph. A slow and erratic
motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

Oil snapped a three-day gain as exchange-traded funds avoided nearer-term contracts.

000
FZNT26 KNHC 091529
OFFN05

NAVTEX Marine Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1129 AM EDT Sat May 9 2020

...Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available
through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed
Coastal Waters Forecasts...

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon night. Moderate trades
will dominate the local waters afterwards.

San Juan Atlantic Waters

.THIS AFTERNOON...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.WED...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.

San Juan Caribbean Waters

.THIS AFTERNOON...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

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000
FZNT27 KNHC 091526
OFFN06

NAVTEX Marine Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1126 AM EDT Sat May 9 2020

...Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available
through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed
Coastal Waters Forecasts...

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front from extends from the Florida Big Bend
to 28N90W to 25N95W then transitions to a stationary front to
22N98W. A surface trough is ahead of the front in the Bay of
Campeche. The front will move to the central Gulf waters today
and gradually stall through Sun. An area of low pressure is
expected to develop over the SW Gulf today, and track NE toward
South Florida on Sun. The stalled front will then transition
back to a cold front and exit the southeastern Gulf on Mon.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact most of
the southern and eastern Gulf waters this weekend.

Northwest Gulf of Mexico

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms.
.SUN...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE...SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED...SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

North Central and Northeast Gulf of Mexico

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

 
 000
 FKPZ23 KNHC 192039
 TCAPZ3
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019
 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
 
 TC ADVISORY
 DTG:                      20191019/2100Z
 TCAC:                     KNHC
 TC:                       OCTAVE
 NR:                       009
 PSN:                      N1136 W12542
 MOV:                      ENE 02KT
 C:                        1009HPA
 MAX WIND:                 030KT
 FCST PSN +6 HR:           20/0300Z N1127 W12542
 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR:      025KT
 FCST PSN +12 HR:          20/0900Z N1119 W12542
 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR:     025KT
 FCST PSN +18 HR:          20/1500Z N1110 W12542
 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR:     025KT
 FCST PSN +24 HR:          20/2100Z N1101 W12542
 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR:     025KT
 RMK:                      THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
                           THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
                           OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
                           0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
 NXT MSG:                  NO MSG EXP
 
 ..
 
 

 
 000
 FOPZ13 KNHC 192039
 PWSEP3
                                                                     
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9    
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019               
 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
 WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 10N 125W       34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   1(16)   2(18)
  
 15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
  
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BERG                                                     
 

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