Following his win in Pennsylvania and earlier victories in other key battleground states in Georgia and North Carolina, Republican candidate Donald Trump took to the stage shortly after in Palm Beach, Florida.

Trump is set to become the 47th President of the United States (US) as he took an early victory lap on stage and expressed gratitude to his family, friends and team. Interestingly, alongside Grover Cleveland – the first Democrat elected following the Civil War – Trump is the second president to serve for a second non-consecutive term for four years.

In a surprising turn, Trump’s victory speech was relatively subdued; no threats of tariffs were mentioned, and he did not refer to his opponent, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who postponed her scheduled speech at Howard University. ‘Winning the popular vote was very nice’, Trump said in his speech, adding: ‘America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate; we have taken back control of the Senate’.

Several members of Trump’s team and friends were invited to speak on stage. His running mate, JD Vance of Ohio, thanked Trump for allowing him to ‘join you on this incredible journey’. Vance added, ‘I think we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America’.

Dana White, the CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), also addressed the nation, stating, ‘Nobody deserves this more than him [Trump]’. He remarked that Trump ‘is the most resilient man I have ever met’.

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, also received significant praise from Trump, voicing his appreciation and calling Musk a ‘super genius’, emphasising that ‘we have to protect our geniuses’. Musk has been vocal in his support for Trump and reportedly invested over US$130 million in his campaign.

Foreign leaders applauded Trump for his victory. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Trump and said he looks forward to collaborating with Trump in the years ahead. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to the platform X to convey his wishes as well, emphasising his desire to strengthen the partnership between the two countries. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Trump's win as ‘history's greatest comeback’ in his post on X.

What Does Donald Trump’s Victory Mean for the US?

Donald Trump will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025 at the US Capitol building in Washington, DC. Americans can expect tax cuts, immigration controls and tariffs.

A Trump presidency will also likely mean lower taxes, a move with plans for widespread changes to taxation, which should increase spending and spur sentiment, at least in the near term.

In his own words, Donald Trump’s second term is expected to be ‘nasty a little bit at times, and maybe at the beginning in particular’. Trump has promised an aggressive approach towards illegal immigration in the US, which could include plans of mass deportation of undocumented migrants, noting that he ‘will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out’.

Trade tariffs are another one of Trump’s policies that the US economy can expect, as he is expected to increase the protectionist policies he introduced in his first term. However, as noted, he failed to address this in his victory speech today.

Another important issue that Trump and the team must address is the debt ceiling (or debt limit), which is the maximum amount of money the US Treasury can borrow to pay its debt obligations. You may recall that the ‘statutory debt ceiling’ was suspended in early January and is due to be reinstated on 1 January 2025. This may involve the Treasury drawing on its existing cash to fulfil its short-term obligations until another suspension of the debt limit is imposed or the debt ceiling is further increased.

Trump Trade is Alive and Kicking

Markets responded as expected, reigniting the Trump Trade, with the US dollar (USD), US Treasury yields, US equities and digital currencies all catching a strong bid.

Despite moderately fading session highs, the US Dollar Index is up 1.5%, which could eventually see the Index aim for June peaks at around 106.13, closely followed by 106.52, the high for the year. US Treasury yields remain underpinned, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding near session highs around 4.42% (up 3.5%).

While commodities experienced a selloff, we have seen a modest recovery unfold, drawing spot gold (XAU/USD) and WTI oil off session lows. In the crypto space, versus the USD, Bitcoin clocked a fresh record high of US$75,415 (up 6.4%), and Ethereum is up nearly 9.0% and testing the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle, pencilled in from US$2,062 and US$2,790.

The MSTR chart is a perfect example of the importance of market timing. The MSTR stock did nothing for almost two decades! Imagine investing in it early and waiting 20 years to get a return.

If you want to have conviction in your ideas, you need to know what moves your stocks and position for that change. In the book “The New Market Wizards”, Stanley Druckenmiller said this in response to the question of how he evaluates stocks:

“When I first started out, I did very thorough papers covering every aspect of a stock or industry. Before I could make the presentation to the stock selection committee, I first had to submit the paper to the research director."

"I particularly remember the time I gave him my paper on the banking industry. I felt very proud of my work. However, he read through it and said, This is useless. What makes the stock go up and down? That comment acted as a spur."

"Thereafter, I focused my analysis on seeking to identify the factors that were strongly correlated to a stock's price movement as opposed to looking at all the fundamentals. Frankly, even today, many analysts still don't know what makes their particular stocks go up and down.”

His number one advice? Do not invest in the present. The present does not move stock prices. Change moves them.

MicroStrategy is basically a Bitcoin play, so you just need to know where Bitcoin is going to trade MSTR stock. No valuation analysis needed.

The catalyst for the latest rally? Trump's victory.

This is why waiting for the right catalysts is paramount. Not only does it tell you WHEN to trade, but it also gives you an IMMEDIATE feedback on whether you are right or wrong. That helps with knowing when to bet more and when to get out to keep your drawdown low.

Japan's Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout to take itself private with funding from banks, Itochu Corp. and the founding Ito family in a transaction that could be worth US$58 billion

"People with knowledge of the matter" cited in the reports via Nikkei and Bloomberg.

The Japanese owner of 7-Eleven is considering going private by buying back its own shares in a bid to avoid a takeover attempt by Canadian rival Alimentation Couche-Tard, the news report says.

Later today, Wednesday, 13 November, we get the US consumer inflation data for October 2024

• due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time

Previews posted already:

• US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM

• US CPI data due Wednesday - possible upside surprise.
• US inflation data this week expected to show core CPI moving sideways - risk ahead higher

OK, what to expect. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the 'expected' in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

CPI Headline y/y, expected 2.6% with the range showing:

• 2.3% - 2.7%

CPI Headline m/m expected 0.2% with the range showing:

• 0.1 to 0.3%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) y/y expected 3.3% with the range showing:

• 3.2 - 3.4%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) m/m expected 0.3% with the range showing:

• 0.2 to 0.4%

***

Why is knowledge of such ranges important?

Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:

• Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.

• Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term.

• Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.

• Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.

• Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. For example, in the case of the inflation data due today, weaker than expected will fuel speculation of nearer and larger Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts. A stronger (i.e. higher) CPI report will diminish such expectations. the December meeting is in focus right now.

• Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.

• Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the launch of “Voices From the Field,” a new digital campaign highlighting stories of local broadcasters through first-person accounts. The campaign, part of NAB’s “We Are Broadcasters” initiative, will spotlight how broadcasters are using their expertise, experience and dedication to local broadcasting to serve their audiences and uplift their communities.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to the inclusion of $1 billion for a vaccine awareness campaign in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, the following statement may be attributed to NAB President and CEO Gordon Smith: 

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial, and Administrative Law is holding a hearing titled "Reviving Competition, Part 2: Saving the Free and Diverse Pres."

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) and TriNet, a leading provider of comprehensive human resources for small and medium-size businesses (SMBs), will present an exclusive webinar for NAB members on July 21st at 1 p.m. ET focused on recruiting and on-boarding an empowered, diverse workforce. NAB members will receive an email invitation with registration information for this free webinar.

Washington, D.C. -- The regulatory framework governing ownership of broadcast radio and television stations harms broadcasters’ ability to compete in the marketplace, impedes localism and fails to promote diversity in ownership, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) said in comments filed with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today launched new spots underscoring the importance of fact-based broadcast radio and television journalism at a time when misinformation is running rampant on social media.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Hubbard Broadcasting Senior Vice President and General Manager Joel Oxley testified today before the Senate Judiciary Committee's Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights at a hearing titled "Breaking the News – Journalism, Competition, and the Effects of Market Power on a Free Press."

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) will host a Diversity Symposium on Sunday, April 24 from 12:00 – 3:00 p.m. at the 2022 NAB Show in Las Vegas. The symposium, designed to help broadcast organizations develop corporate diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) strategies and embrace diversity in media and the workplace, is open to all NAB Show attendees.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) Radio Board of Directors voted unanimously on Friday, March 18 to approve an on-air campaign to educate listeners on the significant harm of legislation that would impose a performance fee on broadcast radio.

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the launch of “The Best of NAB Show Amplified,” a collection of recorded sessions from the 2022 NAB Show, held April 23 – 27, 2022, in Las Vegas, is now available for purchase to stream through video-on-demand.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) released a new NAB Podcast episode today featuring a discussion between NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Deanne Criswell about the importance of emergency preparedness. Their conversation highlighted how broadcasters help disaster relief agencies prepare, inform and serve local communities during this year’s hurricane and wildfire seasons.

Washington, D.C.– The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the launch of a public service campaign to further support children displaced by the war in Ukraine. The campaign will run on World Refugee Day (June 20) and all proceeds will be donated to UNICEF USA to support UNICEF’s emergency response and humanitarian work in Ukraine and neighboring countries.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In response to the passing of Broadcasters Foundation of America President Jim Thompson, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to recent revisions to the Journalism Competition and Preservation Act, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In response to passage by the Senate Judiciary Committee of the Journalism Competition and Preservation Act, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) will present the NAB Show New York Impact Award to two legendary radio hosts, Elvis Duran and Scott Shannon, who recently partnered on the feature-length documentary "Worst to First: The True Story of Z100." The award program will take place on Thursday, October 20 in the Content Theater at the Javits Center and is open to all attendees.

Washington, D.C. -- The broadcast television and radio industry would lose $2.1 billion in digital advertising revenue annually, representing 6.3% of the industry’s total advertising revenue, if third-party cookies were eliminated today with no privacy-preserving alternatives, according to a new study released today by Borrell Associates. Borrell Associates President Jim Brown presented the study, commissioned the National Association of Broadcasters' (NAB) innovation wing PILOT, at NAB Show New York.

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Vice President of Government Relations Charlyn Stanberry has been named one of the 2022 Top Lobbyists by the National Institute for Lobbying and Ethics (NILE). The award recognizes 100 honorees from associations, non-profits, firms and corporations that achieved professional success while demonstrating a commitment to giving back to their community.

Washington, D.C. -- In response to today’s introduction of the American Music Fairness Act, legislation that would impose a new performance fee on broadcast radio stations, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show will explore how the increasing adoption of advanced technology is revolutionizing immersive storytelling experiences in a Main Stage session open to all attendees on Tuesday, April 18 at 1 p.m. at the Las Vegas Convention Center.

Washington, D.C. -- iHeartMedia co-founder, chairman and CEO Bob Pittman will sit down at the 2023 NAB Show with iHeart and Premiere Networks personality Angela Yee for "Math & Magic: Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing with Bob Pittman," a live podcast conversation open to all NAB Show attendees on April 16 at 3 p.m. at the Las Vegas Convention Center.

The National Association of Broadcasters today announced the launch of new spots focused on the enduring value of local broadcasting and the commitment of TV and radio stations across the country to deliver trusted information in convenient, modern and familiar ways.

In response to the introduction of the Journalism Competition and Preservation Act (JCPA) in the Senate, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) announced today a new campaign highlighting the importance of AM radio in the car for news, community engagement, entertainment and vital public safety information. The campaign includes a website with a grassroots call to action and new tools for stations to highlight the importance of AM radio. NAB is urging all radio stations to participate in reminding listeners what makes AM radio unique.

Washington, D.C. -- NAB Show will host its third annual NAB Diversity Symposium, open to all attendees, from April 16-17, at the 2023 NAB Show in Las Vegas. Designed to help broadcast organizations develop corporate diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) strategies and embrace diversity in media and the workplace, this year's symposium will focus on inclusion.

Washington, D.C. -- The National Association of Broadcasters today released new radio spots and digital ads highlighting the importance of AM radio in the automobile. These tools include a direct call to action for consumers to contact Congress and will further enhance NAB's advocacy efforts to keep AM radio in the car dashboard.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to passage by the Senate Judiciary Committee of the Journalism Competition and Preservation Act, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today announced the launch of the 2023 NAB Congressional PSA Campaign, which promotes important messages in local communities across the country. Public service announcements filmed in NAB’s state-of-the-art studio featuring over 150 members of Congress and their families are available to local television and radio stations across the country through their Extreme Reach inbox.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In response to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit providing the Federal Communications Commission 90 days to complete the 2018 quadrennial review or show cause why NAB’s petition for mandamus should be granted, the following statement can be attributed to NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NAB Show New York will shine a spotlight on creativity, innovation and collaboration, announcing the winner and full contest review of “Empire State of Mind presented by Bamboo.” This first-of-its-kind photo contest is seeking the next great photographer for a chance to direct a photoshoot on the streets of New York City with social media influencer and expert strategist Avori Henderson, shoot her next merch drop, speak at NAB Show New York and win $4000.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt was the featured speaker at The Media Institute's "Free Speech America" Gala last night. The event corresponded with Free Speech Week, the nationwide annual celebration of America’s constitutional guarantees of free speech and freedom of the press that runs October 16-22.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt will testify before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology and the Law hearing, Oversight of A.I.: The Future of Journalism, today at 2:00 p.m. E.T.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today released a report detailing the public safety importance of AM radio, which serves as the backbone of the Emergency Alert System. NAB is releasing the report as momentum grows in Congress for legislation to ensure AM radio is accessible to the public in all vehicles.

Washington, D.C.— NAB Show, in partnership with Future Media Concepts (FMC), announces the launch of a live, innovative workshop series, AI Training & Certifications, set to be a game-changer to enhance digital creativity and technical prowess using the latest AI technologies. Designed for both enthusiasts and professionals, these live programs offer practical, hands-on training both online and at NAB Show, targeting creatives in both broadcast and digital video to stay ahead of the curve and refine their skills.

The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) announced Donnie Simpson as the 2024 NAB Broadcasting Hall of Fame inductee for radio. Simpson, a legendary media trailblazer and award-winning program director, will be inducted at the Achievement in Broadcasting event at NAB Show, Monday, April 15, 2024, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) today, in partnership with its Leadership Foundation, launched "You Belong Here," a multifaceted campaign to help broadcasters find, hire and grow talent in their stations. This campaign marks a significant milestone in the broadcast industry’s journey towards a more diverse, dynamic and inclusive future for local stations.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) is hosting its fourth annual NAB Diversity Symposium April 14 – 15 at the 2024 NAB Show in Las Vegas. This year's symposium remains open to all attendees.